Walsh therefore rides neptunes or seabass. Which ever he turns up on will be shorter on the day.
I thought I was the only one that didn't fancy the Wylie pair. It wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't but do you think Walsh isn't keen on the favourite?
walsh has only ridden PDB once and didnt win on him. He has regularly partnered the other two and if Seabass lines up I expect him to be on this one.
Agree with you that Seabass is the most likely but, given the unknown about trip, if it looked like being soft (and he hadn't already committed) I suspect Neptune would be a serious candidate.
"Small bit of damage in a leg", according to Nicholls. To a tendon, according to owner. Presumably done on Saturday. Very unfortunate. 11 year-old in good form, good over the fences, off a light weight. Could have been his best shot at it. Shows why Alan King decided not to risk West End Rocker at Doncaster.
Must have been Plaaayer on the sauce. Shakalakaboomboom runs today in his 3m novice hurdle GN prep (3.05 Warwick). Not surprisingly he's fav for this but Henderson won't have him fully wound-up or be that bothered whether he's first over the line. Just a good show, returning sound will do no doubt. From a stats-perspective, so long as he avoids a tumble or an unseat (yet to have one in 11 runs over obstacles) he'll have a winning stat-score according to my model on anything better than soft at Aintree. Bet365 (already paying 5th place for each-way) joint best price at 25/1. Tinkler rides this pm and presumably will do so at Aintree if Geraghty opts for Burton Port (that will no doubt be largely determined by BP's run next Friday).
Shakalaka did OK in 2nd. Looked in decent shape, jumped a few big, seemingly ridden to win but done for toe in last couple of furlongs - front 2 well clear and he went down by 11 lengths. Pretty much unmoved in the GN market, not surprisingly. Royal Athlete ran seemingly moderately in a 3m handicap hurdle as did Montys Pass in a 2m novice hurdle in their final preps before GN victory and Don't Push It PU'd, looking very moderate indeed, in the Pertemps Final 3m handicap hurdle at the Festival 23 days before his GN win two years ago.
Holy Cow....West End Rocker's been entered for the Midlands National on Saturday. Story from King had been that he'd go straight to Aintree after being scratched for the Grimthorpe. Currently good-to-soft at Uttoxeter but will be quicker by Sat so presumably not certain to run. King obviously would like to give him a spin if poss though. If he does run, a prep less than 36 days prior is good for the stats and in his case he just has to avoid tipping up to keep a winning score. Arbor Surpeme is the only other GN entry to join him. Big day for GN entries at the Festival today. A fair few of them running in the JLT and XC. Mon Mome won't win or probably even get placed in the JLT but if he runs well [not more than 25 lengths back] (and away from heavy ground he could well do so despite the shorter than ideal trip & 66/1 tag) he'll improve his GN stats significantly. Will also be keeping a close eye on Hold On Julio and, naturally, Scotsirish in the XC. Uncle Junior would give his GN stats a big boost with a strong show but wasn't listed as one of Mullins' GN six and is probably destined for Punchestown.
So thats why he Peanuts likes to wait till after Cheltenham?
Except that I didn't in his case of course. Really sad for the horse though. Just seen the replay and it didn't look good. Great shame.
Sad for connections too. Never liked the race and (somewhat unusually for a race of this nature) they went like the clappers on quick ground hence the track record.
Another fatality in the last at Cheltenham......gasp. Message to Jonjo & JP (who of course lost Garde Champetre today). PLEASE do not run Synchronised in the Gold Cup. He stands NO chance in it on quick ground. There are Nationals to be won, weather permitting.
No but I'm not bothered about that - that's the flip side of taking a big price ante-post. Obviously thought he had a terrific chance at Aintree but that's by the by. Just really sad to see such good horses (any horse of course) so badly injured that they had to be put down. I owned one myself that that happened to at Cheltenham (not the Festival) quite a while ago now.....it is absolutely heart-breaking, not just for the owner but especially for the lad or lass that rode them out every day and looked after them. Very grim to go back to an empty box at the yard. But, most National Hunt horses (certainly mine and those 3 that died today) love racing and jumping, are loved and very well cared for and simply wouldn't have come into existence if it wasn't for racing. As they say, the show goes on....
What kind of injury would mean it needs to be put down?
If you google you'll see a number of articles by vets on why it is so difficult to repair a horse's broken leg. I can't do justice to the subject but it's because the structure of a horse's leg is complex (has to be to propel such a weight at speed) and the force exterted when it's jumping or galloping means that a break on the racetrack or gallops (or even if it's charging about in a field at home of course) typically does catastrophic damage.
As regards GN contenders running yesterday: - Mon Mome was a remote 12th in the 3m handicap. Never in contention but at least didn't spit the dummy out as he had on heavy in his last 2 runs. His staying-on 2nd under 11.12 in January over 27f on good-to-soft is enough to suggest that, if there were some genuine cut in the ground (but certainly short of heavy), he should be staying on past tiring horses in the GN, perhaps grabbing a minor place. - Hold On Julio finished 2 places ahead of Mon Mome and is a fine horse but, even allowing for the bug that caused him to miss recent engagements, his jumping inexperience was evident yesterday and the stats suggest that this GN is a year too early. - Midnight Haze did well in the X-C to finish 12.5-length 6th but appeared to run out of gas and GN stats remain poor. Class 3 is the highest level at which he has won to date and he's never won over obstacles going left-handed. - Uncle Junior was a 15-length 8th. Speed limitations were evident but the "good-to-firm" ground (allowing for the lesser speed of a twisting & turning X-C, it was a fast pace) will surely not be the conditions at Aintree, though it would still be a demanding pace on good ground of course. More significantly, he would carry 10.05 at Aintree rather than the topweight 11.09 of yesterday. If he goes there he has stats to make a big show on ground better than soft, though probably no cigar. However, unless plans change as a result of the loss of Scotsirish, he's been aimed at Punchestown rather than the GN. No GN entries on view today.
Potentially very interesting day today for GN entries, principally in the Kim Muir over 26f at 4.40: - Swing Bill (20/1 today). Pipe's not having the greatest of Festival's but, back on decent ground, Swing Bill could go very well today. He's won here just shy of this trip last November and his 3rd behind Fruity O'Rooney a week later looks decent after FOR's fine run on Tuesday. Hasten to add there's no stats or model to back this up for today's race, just my extremely unreliable nose. But if he does the biz or has a near-miss, he would improve his GN stats to a winning score (must have good ground at Aintree though) - currently 100/1 with Stan James, 280 on Betfair for the big one. He didn't go well in the Becher last November but can be forgiven that because of the heavy going - handled the GN fences nicely enough in the Topham a year ago on quickish ground. - Sunnyhillboy (7/1 today). Same goes, a win or near miss would would give him a winning stat-score for the GN (again would prefer good ground). Has had mixed experience over Cheltenham's fences but maybe explained by a reported irregular heartbeat. However, there are rumours that JP's money is down for him this afternoon. Unlucky in last year's Irish National (6-lengths 3rd but badly hampered 4 out). Bred to get a trip, by Old Vic out of half-sister to Whitbread winner Brown Windsor. Generally 33/1 for the GN. - Becauseicouldntsee (12/1 today). Fine stayer on good ground but his fall at the 2nd in last year's GN, while understandable given his freshness, is a bad stat and falling in December's Paddy Power doesn't improve matters. Even a win today wouldn't do enough to propel him into winning potential for the GN according to my model but would no doubt see his 40/1 best price for the GN tumble.
Hector's Choice and Tartak run in the Byrne Plate over 21f at 4.00 but have inadequate form at 3 miles+ to have GN winning potential and whatever they do this afternoon is obviously not going to change that.
Comments
Presumably done on Saturday. Very unfortunate. 11 year-old in good form, good over the fences, off a light weight. Could have been his best shot at it.
Shows why Alan King decided not to risk West End Rocker at Doncaster.
Shakalakaboomboom runs today in his 3m novice hurdle GN prep (3.05 Warwick). Not surprisingly he's fav for this but Henderson won't have him fully wound-up or be that bothered whether he's first over the line. Just a good show, returning sound will do no doubt.
From a stats-perspective, so long as he avoids a tumble or an unseat (yet to have one in 11 runs over obstacles) he'll have a winning stat-score according to my model on anything better than soft at Aintree. Bet365 (already paying 5th place for each-way) joint best price at 25/1.
Tinkler rides this pm and presumably will do so at Aintree if Geraghty opts for Burton Port (that will no doubt be largely determined by BP's run next Friday).
Royal Athlete ran seemingly moderately in a 3m handicap hurdle as did Montys Pass in a 2m novice hurdle in their final preps before GN victory and Don't Push It PU'd, looking very moderate indeed, in the Pertemps Final 3m handicap hurdle at the Festival 23 days before his GN win two years ago.
If he does run, a prep less than 36 days prior is good for the stats and in his case he just has to avoid tipping up to keep a winning score.
Arbor Surpeme is the only other GN entry to join him.
Big day for GN entries at the Festival today. A fair few of them running in the JLT and XC.
Mon Mome won't win or probably even get placed in the JLT but if he runs well [not more than 25 lengths back] (and away from heavy ground he could well do so despite the shorter than ideal trip & 66/1 tag) he'll improve his GN stats significantly. Will also be keeping a close eye on Hold On Julio and, naturally, Scotsirish in the XC. Uncle Junior would give his GN stats a big boost with a strong show but wasn't listed as one of Mullins' GN six and is probably destined for Punchestown.
Never know how early to have a bet especially as don't have an on-line account.
What does the Great Peanuts say?
UGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!
Really sad for the horse though. Just seen the replay and it didn't look good. Great shame.
Message to Jonjo & JP (who of course lost Garde Champetre today). PLEASE do not run Synchronised in the Gold Cup. He stands NO chance in it on quick ground. There are Nationals to be won, weather permitting.
Just really sad to see such good horses (any horse of course) so badly injured that they had to be put down. I owned one myself that that happened to at Cheltenham (not the Festival) quite a while ago now.....it is absolutely heart-breaking, not just for the owner but especially for the lad or lass that rode them out every day and looked after them. Very grim to go back to an empty box at the yard.
But, most National Hunt horses (certainly mine and those 3 that died today) love racing and jumping, are loved and very well cared for and simply wouldn't have come into existence if it wasn't for racing. As they say, the show goes on....
- Mon Mome was a remote 12th in the 3m handicap. Never in contention but at least didn't spit the dummy out as he had on heavy in his last 2 runs. His staying-on 2nd under 11.12 in January over 27f on good-to-soft is enough to suggest that, if there were some genuine cut in the ground (but certainly short of heavy), he should be staying on past tiring horses in the GN, perhaps grabbing a minor place.
- Hold On Julio finished 2 places ahead of Mon Mome and is a fine horse but, even allowing for the bug that caused him to miss recent engagements, his jumping inexperience was evident yesterday and the stats suggest that this GN is a year too early.
- Midnight Haze did well in the X-C to finish 12.5-length 6th but appeared to run out of gas and GN stats remain poor. Class 3 is the highest level at which he has won to date and he's never won over obstacles going left-handed.
- Uncle Junior was a 15-length 8th. Speed limitations were evident but the "good-to-firm" ground (allowing for the lesser speed of a twisting & turning X-C, it was a fast pace) will surely not be the conditions at Aintree, though it would still be a demanding pace on good ground of course. More significantly, he would carry 10.05 at Aintree rather than the topweight 11.09 of yesterday. If he goes there he has stats to make a big show on ground better than soft, though probably no cigar. However, unless plans change as a result of the loss of Scotsirish, he's been aimed at Punchestown rather than the GN.
No GN entries on view today.
- Swing Bill (20/1 today). Pipe's not having the greatest of Festival's but, back on decent ground, Swing Bill could go very well today. He's won here just shy of this trip last November and his 3rd behind Fruity O'Rooney a week later looks decent after FOR's fine run on Tuesday. Hasten to add there's no stats or model to back this up for today's race, just my extremely unreliable nose. But if he does the biz or has a near-miss, he would improve his GN stats to a winning score (must have good ground at Aintree though) - currently 100/1 with Stan James, 280 on Betfair for the big one. He didn't go well in the Becher last November but can be forgiven that because of the heavy going - handled the GN fences nicely enough in the Topham a year ago on quickish ground.
- Sunnyhillboy (7/1 today). Same goes, a win or near miss would would give him a winning stat-score for the GN (again would prefer good ground). Has had mixed experience over Cheltenham's fences but maybe explained by a reported irregular heartbeat. However, there are rumours that JP's money is down for him this afternoon. Unlucky in last year's Irish National (6-lengths 3rd but badly hampered 4 out). Bred to get a trip, by Old Vic out of half-sister to Whitbread winner Brown Windsor. Generally 33/1 for the GN.
- Becauseicouldntsee (12/1 today). Fine stayer on good ground but his fall at the 2nd in last year's GN, while understandable given his freshness, is a bad stat and falling in December's Paddy Power doesn't improve matters. Even a win today wouldn't do enough to propel him into winning potential for the GN according to my model but would no doubt see his 40/1 best price for the GN tumble.
Hector's Choice and Tartak run in the Byrne Plate over 21f at 4.00 but have inadequate form at 3 miles+ to have GN winning potential and whatever they do this afternoon is obviously not going to change that.