Giles Cross does the biz in the Grand National Trial, Neptune Collonges (carrying 11.12) showing up very well as did Le Beau Bai, Some Target and, until the last furlong, Always Right. Mon Mome doesn't seem to like the graft on soft these days. Fredo? I'll stick to the GN. Giles Cross into 25s on Betfair from 80s a couple of days ago though trainer has previously said (understandably given his profile) that he won't run unless its soft.
Former Munster National winner - old GN stalwart Lastofthebrownies was a close 2nd in that race years ago. Three Brownies won it before coming 6th in Rough Quest's GN and Montys Pass was twice 3rd in it before winning the GN in 2003. Having an excellent season and has good stats. Best of luck Alan.
PS I hate to mention it but Golden Kite (last year's shock that never happened) won the Munster National aswell - Treacle certainly has more going for him
Cheers for that. Most of my ante post bets don't even make it to post so that's the first aim ! I was dreading he'd run a stinker last Sunday but he finished well and will now go straight to Aintree. Fingers firmly crossed!
PS I hate to mention it but Golden Kite (last year's shock that never happened) won the Munster National aswell - Treacle certainly has more going for him
Golden Kite caused me a lot of entertainment last year Peanuts, I'm looking forward to discovering your outside bet for this year almost as much as discovering which horses are your 'guaranteed, license to print money' picks
If only they'd had to omit the other 28 fences GK would've been a shoe in........................well he might have given Silver By Nature a fight for 12th ;o) Certainly aiming to oblige, at least on a positive return again. West End Rocker the only definite regardless of ground at the moment but at least he's currently the shortest price of the candidates.
Slide rule's been applied and, of those confirmed by trainers as intended runners, the following currently have winning profiles according to my stats-model:
If GN ground is Good or quicker [in order of card not model's score]:
Planet Of Sound Scotsirish (Good-to-Soft OK) Shakalakaboomboom (Good to Soft OK) West End Rocker (any ground)
Those that could run big races on decent ground (though my model currently predicts no cigar): Burton Port, Neptune Collonges, According To Pete, Cappa Bleu, Mon Mome, Treacle, Roulez Cool
If GN ground is Soft or slower:
Synchronised (Good-to-Soft OK) - though not certain to run Neptune Collonges West End Rocker (any ground) Le Beau Bai (Good-to-Soft OK) - no comment from trainer but probably will only run if soft Giles Cross (Good-to-Soft OK) - will only run if soft
Those that could run big races on soft ground (though my model currently predicts no cigar): Cappa Bleu, Mon Mome, Treacle
As usual, 2 points to note: 1. My model will crash and burn at some point - could easily be this year given the tweaking it got post-Ballabriggs. 2. These are not final selections of course, as the stats for all of the entries are liable to change. For example, Burton Port, which as AA points out has been amazingly consistent, is currently burdened from a stats perspective only by having to carry 11.07 - no horse other than Red Rum has carried more than 11.05 to victory since 1957, though 3 runners-up since 2005 have carried 11.10+ so this is a stat definitely waiting to be broken. Even so, it is obviously a big ask - those 3 2nd-placed horses included 2 winners of the last GN (Hedgehunter, which had also just finished a close 2nd in the Gold Cup, and Dont Push It last year) and Royal Auclair, which had been placed in both the Hennessy and the Gold Cup. BP has already got a Hennessy place to his name, albeit carrying only 10.01, and you won't be surprised to know that, according to my model, his stats would improve to more than compensate for that weight and to give him a GN winning profile if he were to finish within 6 lengths of the winner of the Gold Cup (or win it of course). Could he do a GC and GN season-double? No horse other than the great Golden Miller in 1934 has achieved that feat and he had 3 Gold Cups to his name before his GN victory (as a 7 year old, carrying 12.02). But Garrison Savannah (an 8 year old like BP) was a 16/1 winner of the GC in 1991 and was clear at the last in the GN before being reeled in in the last 100 yards by Seagram. Deeply envious though I am of AA with his BP ticket for the GN at 50/1 (and God only knows what price he would be for the GN if he won the GC!), it would be fantastic (and truly an astonishing training feat by Henderson) if he went to Aintree with that as a possibility. Another GN fairytale?
Anyway, a full update on the model's fancies after Cheltenham.
Slide rule's been applied and, of those confirmed by trainers as intended runners, the following currently have winning profiles according to my stats-model:
If GN ground is Good or quicker [in order of card not model's score]:
Planet Of Sound Scotsirish (Good-to-Soft OK) Shakalakaboomboom (Good to Soft OK) West End Rocker (any ground)
Those that could run big races on decent ground (though my model currently predicts no cigar): Burton Port, Neptune Collonges, According To Pete, Cappa Bleu, Mon Mome, Treacle, Roulez Cool
If GN ground is Soft or slower:
Synchronised (Good-to-Soft OK) - though not certain to run Neptune Collonges West End Rocker (any ground) Le Beau Bai (Good-to-Soft OK) - no comment from trainer but probably will only run if soft Giles Cross (Good-to-Soft OK) - will only run if soft
Those that could run big races on soft ground (though my model currently predicts no cigar): Cappa Bleu, Mon Mome, Treacle
As usual, 2 points to note: 1. My model will crash and burn at some point - could easily be this year given the tweaking it got post-Ballabriggs. 2. These are not final selections of course, as the stats for all of the entries are liable to change. For example, Burton Port, which as AA points out has been amazingly consistent, is currently burdened from a stats perspective only by having to carry 11.07 - no horse other than Red Rum has carried more than 11.05 to victory since 1957, though 3 runners-up since 2005 have carried 11.10+ so this is a stat definitely waiting to be broken. Even so, it is obviously a big ask - those 3 2nd-placed horses included 2 winners of the last GN (Hedgehunter, which had also just finished a close 2nd in the Gold Cup, and Dont Push It last year) and Royal Auclair, which had been placed in both the Hennessy and the Gold Cup. BP has already got a Hennessy place to his name, albeit carrying only 10.01, and you won't be surprised to know that, according to my model, his stats would improve to more than compensate for that weight and to give him a GN winning profile if he were to finish within 6 lengths of the winner of the Gold Cup (or win it of course). Could he do a GC and GN season-double? No horse other than the great Golden Miller in 1934 has achieved that feat and he had 3 Gold Cups to his name before his GN victory (as a 7 year old, carrying 12.02). But Garrison Savannah (an 8 year old like BP) was a 16/1 winner of the GC in 1991 and was clear at the last in the GN before being reeled in in the last 100 yards by Seagram. Deeply envious though I am of AA with his BP ticket for the GN at 50/1 (and God only knows what price he would be for the GN if he won the GC!), it would be fantastic (and truly an astonishing training feat by Henderson) if he went to Aintree with that as a possibility. Another GN fairytale?
Anyway, a full update on the model's fancies after Cheltenham.
Very interesting as always PM. Despite the weight I could actually see BP doing a Hedgehunter (runner up in GC and then winning the GN) as I genuinely think he has the class to do so. There are two aspects that make things slightly different for BP and perhaps explains why the GC/GN double isn't attempted too often - one the two races usually come too close together but there is a four week break this year and the other is that you have to have a particuarly sporting owner to do so and we know that there is nothing that would please Trevor Hemmings more than to win the GN yet again.
Sorry I didn't phrase that well AA. It was just before Hedgehunter's 2nd place in the GN in 2006 that he was 2nd in the GC (a year after he'd scored at Aintree) but Rough Quest won it after coming a close 2nd in the GC just 16 days earlier (though he was famously off a light weight) and Miinnehoma was a 19L 7th in the GC 23 days before winning the GN. And, aside from Hedgehunter, lots of good runs in the GC before coming 2nd or 3rd in the GN 16-23 days later with biggish weights: Suny Bay (12.00), Whats Up Boys (11.06), Royal Auclair (11.10) and My Will (11.04). From that point of view, carrying 11.07 with and extra week's rest should be breeze!!.... unless his stablemate pips him to it!! You're right about Hemmings, fair play to the bloke. Obviously fingers crossed that BP doesn't do the not-unusual 2nd-race disappointment after a lay off and good return, though I dread to think what price I'll be having to back him if he forces himself onto my list......a 7 length 2nd in the GC will do me nicely ;o)
Just to repeat, except for West End Rocker whose stats are robust, all of my early fancies, especially the good ground candidates who are yet to have a post-weights run, could see their stats change significantly prior to the big day depending upon whether and how they run in their preps. Another factor that would specifically affect my model's rating of Planet Of Sound would be the 1lb rise in the weights if Synchronised were to be scratched. It's difficult to assess the likelihood of this at the moment (Jonjo's sounding like he is an intended runner but he's very capable of changing his tune overnight) but even a 1lb increase would put Planet Of Sound on 11.06 and above a critical stat-threshold, relegating him to the "big run, no cigar" category even on good ground. You need another level or dimension of achievement to have a chance of winning carrying 11.06+, according to my model. In any event, he is due to run in the Racing Post chase at Kempton on Saturday (for which he is top-weight and 5/1 fav) and it is important for confirming his current GN stats that he runs respectably (doesn't have to get placed, just go OK and, especially, not F/UR). A win or near thing would presumably prompt a knee-jerk shortening of his GN price (a couple of bookies still go 33/1 and he is currently offered at 32 on Betfair) but, while a win would always be welcome, it wouldn't meaningfully enhance his GN stat-profile (the RP Chase has little recent correlation with GN success - last GN winner to have won the preceding RP Chase was Rough Quest in 1995 and even Class 1 success around RH tracks such as Kempton, Ascot and Sandown, according to my model, doesn't cut the mustard over the GN fences). Thankfully PoS has a strong 2nd in this season's Hennessy with 11.02 on his resume.
A couple of high profile races today featuring GN entries, some prominent.
First, the 3m1f Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse won by Prince Du Beauchene, who was immediately shortened on Betfair from 16 to 12 (clear favourite) for the GN (8-10/1 with the bookies) It will be said that the Bobbyjo chase (which has become Willie Mullins' prep-of-choice for the GN) has a close connection with same-season GN success: for example, Hedgehunter won it before his GN victory in 2005 and, since then, Snowy Morning, Black Apalachi and Oscar Time were closely placed in the Bobbyjo before finishing within 6 lengths of the GN winner a few weeks later. However, since its inception in 2003, there has also been a sizeable "Disappointment" camp with horses going on to that season's GN: 3 Bobbyjo winners (Takagi, Homer Wells and Vic Venturi) and 4 horses placed within 4L in the race (Alexander Banquet, Jack High, Point Barrow and Arbor Supreme) have ALL failed to complete at Aintree, while a 4th winner Rince Ri took 3 years to get to the GN before....you've got it, failing to complete. Last year's Bobbyjo winner, The Midnight Club, was sent off 15/2 fav in the GN and ran well but was beaten when hampered 4 out and came in a 27-length 6th. All in all, it would be logical to think that there should be more required for GN success that a proximate victory in a Grade 2 3mile chase at Fairyhouse in February, usually (as today) run on soft~heavy and with smallish fields of mixed quality. The stats for those in the "Glory" camp seem to bear this out. Heading to Aintree success, Hedgehunter also had Newbury Hennessy and Welsh National places to his credit, aswell as a 3.5 mile chase win and a strong run in the prior GN; Oscar Time, a gruelling Irish National close 2nd on heavy; and Black Apalachi a Becher chase victory (3.25 miles over the GN fences) on soft and form at 3.75 miles. Only Snowy Morning had no form at 3.5 miles+ but he had a 78% Win & Place Strike Rate from 9 chases, 66% in 6 chases at 3 miles+, all at Grade 1 and 2, including a 10-length 2nd to Denman at levels in the Grade 1 RSA Chase at Cheltenham and a close 3rd in the Grade 1 Irish Hennessy. Prince De Beauchene is a half brother to a Welsh National winner (Miko De Beauchene) so there is stamina in the family but his stats since leaving France, while decent, IMHO are not enough to justify GN favouritism. 3m1f is the furthest trip over which he has won and, indeed, raced and he has a moderate 50% Win & Place Strike Rate from 10 chases (the same % from 6 runs at 3 miles+) [Hedgehunter's Strike Rate was 82% from 11, 75% at 3miles+, when he won the GN]. PDB won a Listed chase over the Mildmay course at Aintree on Good a year ago but a quarter of the field were effectively taken out at the 2nd fence and 3 horses crossed the finishing line within 2 lengths of him - none of which have won since from 13 attempts. On the plus side (and the chief reason for the hype) is that he is due to carry only 10.06 at Aintree and, post his Bobbyjo win, will no doubt be considered "very well-in". But that is a measure in his case at 25f and, while a light weight is of course great, it is by no means sufficient even for Bobbyjo victors or near-victors: Homer Wells (another Mullins' Bobbyjo winner) carried 10.06 in the 2007 GN but PU'd before 2nd Bechers; Jack High (Irish National & Bobbyjo close 2nd) couldn't get past Bechers first time with 10.03 and last year Arbor Supreme (1-length 2nd to The Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo and with form at 3.75miles) carried 10.03 but fell when well behind 3 out. I suspect that I am going to have to eat humble pie on 14th April but, even with victory today, my model suggests that Prince De Beauchene is unlikely to join the "Glory" camp of former Bobbyjo winners that win or go close at Aintree. As for the others with GN entries that ran in the Bobbyjo today: - Black Apalachi: ran on strongly from way out the back to finish a flattering 6-length 2nd but he is now 13 years old and, despite being a stalwart over the GN fences, carries surely too great a burden with 11.03 at Aintree to repeat his fine 2nd behind Don't Push It 2 years ago, this being his first run since then. - Alfa Beat: PU today. Stats are a mile away for GN success and he didn't handle the GN fences when he ran in the Topham a year ago. - Rare Bob: 14-length 5th, nothing positive of note on his resume. Willie Mullins and 99% of Ireland may not agree but my model still suggests that Scotsirish has the best chance of the Irish contingent, providing the ground isn't soft - partly thanks to the focus on Prince De Beauchene, Scotsirish is now offered at 120 on Betfair (still 33-50/1 for the GN with the bookies and 11/4 fav for the 3m7f X-C at Cheltenham). Unlike PDB, he's proven over the GN fences. That few Betfair punters agree with me doesn't worry me in the slightest. Don't Push It had drifted out to 94 on Betfair a mere 12 days before he won the 2010 GN.
OK, on to the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton won by the admirable Nacarat and where 3 GN entries were on show: - Planet Of Sound: ran a decent prep (hopefully he is sound today), finishing a 17-length 3rd staying on one-paced (3 miles around Kempton on good ground too sharp for him). Stats intact for a GN winning chance on good ground - Deep Purple: had dropped behind when falling 5 out. GN stats didn't stack up with 11.03, even less so now. - Hector's Choice: 11-length 2nd. Here was the funky outsider that could have come screaming into the GN picture (was and still is 260 on Betfair) in his first attempt at 3 miles (had been very consistent at 2.5-2.75 miles despite going up 16lbs this season [close 2nd behind Calgary Bay at Cheltenham] and had run like he would relish 3 miles). He very nearly did it, taking up the lead as they entered the home straight but by 2 out he appeared to be running on empty, though very gutsily (subesquently transpired he'd had a repeat of an overreach, maybe through tiredness). May or may not head to Aintree - if he does, stats suggest on good ground he could go well for a fair way as decent 2.5-3milers can but it's very doubtful that he would get home.
Im on KillyGlen at 33/1 looked to have been laid out for this race as connections have ran him mainly over hurdles to get him in at a good weight. Looked to be staying on well with a great chance in the national last year, 10-5 will be a great weight to carry and has Previous winning form around Aintree in a Grade 1 race.
Now don't get me wrong.....I have nothing but the warmest affection for my own kith and kin from the fair Isle, as does Mrs Molloy..........and Seabass is a fine racehorse, having a tremendous run of 7 consecutive victories (all but one being at 2-2.75 miles), the most recent in a Grade 2 2-mile chase at Naas today. But lest the Irish bookies have forgotten, the Grand National is run over 4.5 miles.......yes that's 4.5 miles. So, here is the career record in races under rules at 3miles+ for Boylesports' new 14/1 co-2nd favourite for the 2012 Grand National, Seabass: 28 Apr 2007: Punchestown 3m Novice Hurdle (Good): 45-length 13th of 24 - Racing Post Rating:64 18 Jan 2010: Thurles 5k 3m Handicap Chase (Heavy): 11-length 3rd of 13 [time 67.6 secs slower than standard] RPR:114 (this is the performance that qualifies Seabass for the GN) Oh, and one of his string of 7 wins was in November (earning a veritably giddy RPR of 109) in a 3-mile Point-to-Point by 1.5 lengths (receiving 5lbs) from Saddlers Storm (without a win in 2 years, now racing off an Irish OR of 126 and allotted 9.05 in the GN [obviously unlikely to run]). No doubt he won that P-t-P comfortably but he is due to carry 10.12 in the GN. SERENITY NOW!!
PS Betfair retains sanity with offers at 29, as does Ted Walsh: “If he stays sound and well then he’ll go to Liverpool for the National even though he’s never gone beyond three miles and we don’t know about the trip.”
Hi Plaaayer. Do you have an account on Betfair or another exchange?
I do have a Betfair account mate.
No change as yet in terms of the early selections for either Good or Soft ground I mentioned earlier. Obviously too early to figure going conditions though you have to suppose it's odds against it being soft, though they will surely be watering early if it's dry up there aiming to avert fast-ground and another possible furore - late downpours could catch them out. Nonetheless I definitely wouldn't back any of the soft ground horses yet (Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross probably won't run unless it's at least good-to-soft and Synchronised could still run and hit the deck in the Gold Cup). Looking at the good ground selections: West End Rocker - OK on any ground and almost certain to be on final list of selections - Ladbrokes alone at 20/1, Bet365 [I think already paying 5th place for e/w] 18/1. Betfair offered at 21. Likely to run at Doncaster on Saturday. Since anything with 4 legs that wins at 2 miles+ is liable to be shortened to near fav, even though he's not Irish he would probably be shortened if he were to win (showing sceptics that he can handle good ground) but I doubt that he'll be ridden aggressively to win. Planet Of Sound - probably had his final prep, did fine but must have good ground - likely but not 100% certain to make my final selections) - best bookie 33/1, Bet365 25/1, Betfair offered at 36. Shakalakaboomboom - will probably run in a novice hurdle as his prep so, providing no silly F or UR, unlikely to damage his stats (unlikely to do much to shorten his price massively either - but the fact that he's drifted a little in the last few weeks probably reflects view that Geraghty's likely to ride Burton Port. However, a lot will depend presumably on how BP runs in the Gold Cup. If he doesn't sparkle and Geraghty opts instead for Shakalakaboomboom his price would likely shorten - Henderson is very keen on him for the GN). Likely to be on final selections list if not Soft. Bet365 is best bookie at 25/1, Betfair offered at 34. Backing any of these 3 at this stage could prove a good move or could backfire but there is one that I would take (and have taken) a nibble at on Betfair [THE EXCHANGE FOR INTELLIGENT PUNTERS - was that OK AA?]: Scotsirish. I've already said a fair bit about him. He is still 33~50/1 with the bookies (Bet365 at 33/1) but offered at 120 on Betfair. His GN stats stack up, providing the ground is not Soft (he does act on soft ground, it is simply a presumption on stamina limitation at the trip on testing ground). He is still 11/4 fav for the 3m7f X-Country chase at the Festival and likely to prove (as he has in fact already, despite his jockey screwing up at Cheltenham last December) that he gets a trip carrying a biggish weight, albeit over a X-C course. I've no idea whether bookies and Betfair punters will be impressed if he obliges at Cheltenham but 120 for the GN is good enough for me. My one concern is that they may get it wrong tactically with him at Aintree. Mullins has said that he is one of his 6 intended GN runners and, though he has run well over the GN fences on both attempts, he is clearly less fancied than the 2 Wylie horses. As Scotsirish is usually held up in his races, the worry would be that they fear the trip and are too cautious. Interesting to note the comment by Racing Post journo after his 10-length 3rd in the 2.75mile Topham over the GN fences last April (after Mullins had scratched him from the GN): "Scotsirish, runner-up in the race off 1lb higher last year, clearly likes these fences and it was somewhat surprising Willie Mullins turned down the opportunity to run him in the National, as he´s always looked as though he wants further than this. He stayed on well in third...." It is notoriously difficult to come from way back on good ground (and you can get caught up in trouble) and to give him a chance they'll need to ride him to stay in touch (they have done that with him in a couple of the 3 mile X-Cs recently to good effect). He has the speed to go the pace, tracking the leaders, and hopefully a win or good show at the Festival will prompt positive instructions at Aintree. Hope this helps.
Hi Plaaayer. Do you have an account on Betfair or another exchange?
I do have a Betfair account mate.
Backing any of these 3 at this stage could prove a good move or could backfire but there is one that I would take (and have taken) a nibble at on Betfair [THE EXCHANGE FOR INTELLIGENT PUNTERS - was that OK AA?]: Scotsirish.
I've already said a fair bit about him. He is still 33~50/1 with the bookies (Bet365 at 33/1) but offered at 120 on Betfair. His GN stats stack up, providing the ground is not Soft (he does act on soft ground, it is simply a presumption on stamina limitation at the trip on testing ground). He is still 11/4 fav for the 3m7f X-Country chase at the Festival and likely to prove (as he has in fact already, despite his jockey screwing up at Cheltenham last December) that he gets a trip carrying a biggish weight, albeit over a X-C course. I've no idea whether bookies and Betfair punters will be impressed if he obliges at Cheltenham but 120 for the GN is good enough for me. My one concern is that they may get it wrong tactically with him at Aintree. Mullins has said that he is one of his 6 intended GN runners and, though he has run well over the GN fences on both attempts, he is clearly less fancied than the 2 Wylie horses. As Scotsirish is usually held up in his races, the worry would be that they fear the trip and are too cautious. Interesting to note the comment by Racing Post journo after his 10-length 3rd in the 2.75mile Topham over the GN fences last April (after Mullins had scratched him from the GN): "Scotsirish, runner-up in the race off 1lb higher last year, clearly likes these fences and it was somewhat surprising Willie Mullins turned down the opportunity to run him in the National, as he´s always looked as though he wants further than this. He stayed on well in third...." It is notoriously difficult to come from way back on good ground (and you can get caught up in trouble) and to give him a chance they'll need to ride him to stay in touch (they have done that with him in a couple of the 3 mile X-Cs recently to good effect). He has the speed to go the pace, tracking the leaders, and hopefully a win or good show at the Festival will prompt positive instructions at Aintree. Hope this helps.
I don't know about "intelligent punters" as I certainly don't include myself there.
You are right about being handy as, unless it runs out to be a bog, the day when less fancied (aka donkeys) could outstay their shorter priced rivals are long gone. As for the cross country it always seems to be run with the last two furlong sprint up the hill in mind which is why I suspect you get the same sort of animals winning those race.
Notwithstanding this, as I have the utmost faith in your thought process, I have had a tenner at 120 on Betfair and providing I remember to do so will include Scotsirish with my two Antepost selections (Cappa Bleu & Burton Port) in F/C and T/C combos. Providing they all make it to post that is!
Comments
Giles Cross into 25s on Betfair from 80s a couple of days ago though trainer has previously said (understandably given his profile) that he won't run unless its soft.
PS I hate to mention it but Golden Kite (last year's shock that never happened) won the Munster National aswell - Treacle certainly has more going for him
I was dreading he'd run a stinker last Sunday but he finished well and will now go straight to Aintree.
Fingers firmly crossed!
Certainly aiming to oblige, at least on a positive return again.
West End Rocker the only definite regardless of ground at the moment but at least he's currently the shortest price of the candidates.
If GN ground is Good or quicker [in order of card not model's score]:
Planet Of Sound
Scotsirish (Good-to-Soft OK)
Shakalakaboomboom (Good to Soft OK)
West End Rocker (any ground)
Those that could run big races on decent ground (though my model currently predicts no cigar): Burton Port, Neptune Collonges, According To Pete, Cappa Bleu, Mon Mome, Treacle, Roulez Cool
If GN ground is Soft or slower:
Synchronised (Good-to-Soft OK) - though not certain to run
Neptune Collonges
West End Rocker (any ground)
Le Beau Bai (Good-to-Soft OK) - no comment from trainer but probably will only run if soft
Giles Cross (Good-to-Soft OK) - will only run if soft
Those that could run big races on soft ground (though my model currently predicts no cigar): Cappa Bleu, Mon Mome, Treacle
As usual, 2 points to note:
1. My model will crash and burn at some point - could easily be this year given the tweaking it got post-Ballabriggs.
2. These are not final selections of course, as the stats for all of the entries are liable to change. For example, Burton Port, which as AA points out has been amazingly consistent, is currently burdened from a stats perspective only by having to carry 11.07 - no horse other than Red Rum has carried more than 11.05 to victory since 1957, though 3 runners-up since 2005 have carried 11.10+ so this is a stat definitely waiting to be broken. Even so, it is obviously a big ask - those 3 2nd-placed horses included 2 winners of the last GN (Hedgehunter, which had also just finished a close 2nd in the Gold Cup, and Dont Push It last year) and Royal Auclair, which had been placed in both the Hennessy and the Gold Cup. BP has already got a Hennessy place to his name, albeit carrying only 10.01, and you won't be surprised to know that, according to my model, his stats would improve to more than compensate for that weight and to give him a GN winning profile if he were to finish within 6 lengths of the winner of the Gold Cup (or win it of course).
Could he do a GC and GN season-double? No horse other than the great Golden Miller in 1934 has achieved that feat and he had 3 Gold Cups to his name before his GN victory (as a 7 year old, carrying 12.02). But Garrison Savannah (an 8 year old like BP) was a 16/1 winner of the GC in 1991 and was clear at the last in the GN before being reeled in in the last 100 yards by Seagram.
Deeply envious though I am of AA with his BP ticket for the GN at 50/1 (and God only knows what price he would be for the GN if he won the GC!), it would be fantastic (and truly an astonishing training feat by Henderson) if he went to Aintree with that as a possibility. Another GN fairytale?
Anyway, a full update on the model's fancies after Cheltenham.
You're right about Hemmings, fair play to the bloke. Obviously fingers crossed that BP doesn't do the not-unusual 2nd-race disappointment after a lay off and good return, though I dread to think what price I'll be having to back him if he forces himself onto my list......a 7 length 2nd in the GC will do me nicely ;o)
Another factor that would specifically affect my model's rating of Planet Of Sound would be the 1lb rise in the weights if Synchronised were to be scratched.
It's difficult to assess the likelihood of this at the moment (Jonjo's sounding like he is an intended runner but he's very capable of changing his tune overnight) but even a 1lb increase would put Planet Of Sound on 11.06 and above a critical stat-threshold, relegating him to the "big run, no cigar" category even on good ground. You need another level or dimension of achievement to have a chance of winning carrying 11.06+, according to my model.
In any event, he is due to run in the Racing Post chase at Kempton on Saturday (for which he is top-weight and 5/1 fav) and it is important for confirming his current GN stats that he runs respectably (doesn't have to get placed, just go OK and, especially, not F/UR). A win or near thing would presumably prompt a knee-jerk shortening of his GN price (a couple of bookies still go 33/1 and he is currently offered at 32 on Betfair) but, while a win would always be welcome, it wouldn't meaningfully enhance his GN stat-profile (the RP Chase has little recent correlation with GN success - last GN winner to have won the preceding RP Chase was Rough Quest in 1995 and even Class 1 success around RH tracks such as Kempton, Ascot and Sandown, according to my model, doesn't cut the mustard over the GN fences). Thankfully PoS has a strong 2nd in this season's Hennessy with 11.02 on his resume.
First, the 3m1f Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse won by Prince Du Beauchene, who was immediately shortened on Betfair from 16 to 12 (clear favourite) for the GN (8-10/1 with the bookies)
It will be said that the Bobbyjo chase (which has become Willie Mullins' prep-of-choice for the GN) has a close connection with same-season GN success: for example, Hedgehunter won it before his GN victory in 2005 and, since then, Snowy Morning, Black Apalachi and Oscar Time were closely placed in the Bobbyjo before finishing within 6 lengths of the GN winner a few weeks later.
However, since its inception in 2003, there has also been a sizeable "Disappointment" camp with horses going on to that season's GN: 3 Bobbyjo winners (Takagi, Homer Wells and Vic Venturi) and 4 horses placed within 4L in the race (Alexander Banquet, Jack High, Point Barrow and Arbor Supreme) have ALL failed to complete at Aintree, while a 4th winner Rince Ri took 3 years to get to the GN before....you've got it, failing to complete. Last year's Bobbyjo winner, The Midnight Club, was sent off 15/2 fav in the GN and ran well but was beaten when hampered 4 out and came in a 27-length 6th.
All in all, it would be logical to think that there should be more required for GN success that a proximate victory in a Grade 2 3mile chase at Fairyhouse in February, usually (as today) run on soft~heavy and with smallish fields of mixed quality. The stats for those in the "Glory" camp seem to bear this out.
Heading to Aintree success, Hedgehunter also had Newbury Hennessy and Welsh National places to his credit, aswell as a 3.5 mile chase win and a strong run in the prior GN; Oscar Time, a gruelling Irish National close 2nd on heavy; and Black Apalachi a Becher chase victory (3.25 miles over the GN fences) on soft and form at 3.75 miles. Only Snowy Morning had no form at 3.5 miles+ but he had a 78% Win & Place Strike Rate from 9 chases, 66% in 6 chases at 3 miles+, all at Grade 1 and 2, including a 10-length 2nd to Denman at levels in the Grade 1 RSA Chase at Cheltenham and a close 3rd in the Grade 1 Irish Hennessy.
Prince De Beauchene is a half brother to a Welsh National winner (Miko De Beauchene) so there is stamina in the family but his stats since leaving France, while decent, IMHO are not enough to justify GN favouritism. 3m1f is the furthest trip over which he has won and, indeed, raced and he has a moderate 50% Win & Place Strike Rate from 10 chases (the same % from 6 runs at 3 miles+) [Hedgehunter's Strike Rate was 82% from 11, 75% at 3miles+, when he won the GN]. PDB won a Listed chase over the Mildmay course at Aintree on Good a year ago but a quarter of the field were effectively taken out at the 2nd fence and 3 horses crossed the finishing line within 2 lengths of him - none of which have won since from 13 attempts.
On the plus side (and the chief reason for the hype) is that he is due to carry only 10.06 at Aintree and, post his Bobbyjo win, will no doubt be considered "very well-in". But that is a measure in his case at 25f and, while a light weight is of course great, it is by no means sufficient even for Bobbyjo victors or near-victors: Homer Wells (another Mullins' Bobbyjo winner) carried 10.06 in the 2007 GN but PU'd before 2nd Bechers; Jack High (Irish National & Bobbyjo close 2nd) couldn't get past Bechers first time with 10.03 and last year Arbor Supreme (1-length 2nd to The Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo and with form at 3.75miles) carried 10.03 but fell when well behind 3 out.
I suspect that I am going to have to eat humble pie on 14th April but, even with victory today, my model suggests that Prince De Beauchene is unlikely to join the "Glory" camp of former Bobbyjo winners that win or go close at Aintree. As for the others with GN entries that ran in the Bobbyjo today:
- Black Apalachi: ran on strongly from way out the back to finish a flattering 6-length 2nd but he is now 13 years old and, despite being a stalwart over the GN fences, carries surely too great a burden with 11.03 at Aintree to repeat his fine 2nd behind Don't Push It 2 years ago, this being his first run since then.
- Alfa Beat: PU today. Stats are a mile away for GN success and he didn't handle the GN fences when he ran in the Topham a year ago.
- Rare Bob: 14-length 5th, nothing positive of note on his resume.
Willie Mullins and 99% of Ireland may not agree but my model still suggests that Scotsirish has the best chance of the Irish contingent, providing the ground isn't soft - partly thanks to the focus on Prince De Beauchene, Scotsirish is now offered at 120 on Betfair (still 33-50/1 for the GN with the bookies and 11/4 fav for the 3m7f X-C at Cheltenham). Unlike PDB, he's proven over the GN fences. That few Betfair punters agree with me doesn't worry me in the slightest. Don't Push It had drifted out to 94 on Betfair a mere 12 days before he won the 2010 GN.
- Planet Of Sound: ran a decent prep (hopefully he is sound today), finishing a 17-length 3rd staying on one-paced (3 miles around Kempton on good ground too sharp for him). Stats intact for a GN winning chance on good ground
- Deep Purple: had dropped behind when falling 5 out. GN stats didn't stack up with 11.03, even less so now.
- Hector's Choice: 11-length 2nd. Here was the funky outsider that could have come screaming into the GN picture (was and still is 260 on Betfair) in his first attempt at 3 miles (had been very consistent at 2.5-2.75 miles despite going up 16lbs this season [close 2nd behind Calgary Bay at Cheltenham] and had run like he would relish 3 miles). He very nearly did it, taking up the lead as they entered the home straight but by 2 out he appeared to be running on empty, though very gutsily (subesquently transpired he'd had a repeat of an overreach, maybe through tiredness). May or may not head to Aintree - if he does, stats suggest on good ground he could go well for a fair way as decent 2.5-3milers can but it's very doubtful that he would get home.
But lest the Irish bookies have forgotten, the Grand National is run over 4.5 miles.......yes that's 4.5 miles.
So, here is the career record in races under rules at 3miles+ for Boylesports' new 14/1 co-2nd favourite for the 2012 Grand National, Seabass:
28 Apr 2007: Punchestown 3m Novice Hurdle (Good): 45-length 13th of 24 - Racing Post Rating:64
18 Jan 2010: Thurles 5k 3m Handicap Chase (Heavy): 11-length 3rd of 13 [time 67.6 secs slower than standard] RPR:114 (this is the performance that qualifies Seabass for the GN)
Oh, and one of his string of 7 wins was in November (earning a veritably giddy RPR of 109) in a 3-mile Point-to-Point by 1.5 lengths (receiving 5lbs) from Saddlers Storm (without a win in 2 years, now racing off an Irish OR of 126 and allotted 9.05 in the GN [obviously unlikely to run]). No doubt he won that P-t-P comfortably but he is due to carry 10.12 in the GN.
SERENITY NOW!!
PS Betfair retains sanity with offers at 29, as does Ted Walsh: “If he stays sound and well then he’ll go to Liverpool for the National even though he’s never gone beyond three miles and we don’t know about the trip.”
Blazing Tempo
Cooldine
Little Josh
Northern Alliance
Qhilimar
Nonetheless I definitely wouldn't back any of the soft ground horses yet (Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross probably won't run unless it's at least good-to-soft and Synchronised could still run and hit the deck in the Gold Cup).
Looking at the good ground selections:
West End Rocker - OK on any ground and almost certain to be on final list of selections - Ladbrokes alone at 20/1, Bet365 [I think already paying 5th place for e/w] 18/1. Betfair offered at 21. Likely to run at Doncaster on Saturday. Since anything with 4 legs that wins at 2 miles+ is liable to be shortened to near fav, even though he's not Irish he would probably be shortened if he were to win (showing sceptics that he can handle good ground) but I doubt that he'll be ridden aggressively to win.
Planet Of Sound - probably had his final prep, did fine but must have good ground - likely but not 100% certain to make my final selections) - best bookie 33/1, Bet365 25/1, Betfair offered at 36.
Shakalakaboomboom - will probably run in a novice hurdle as his prep so, providing no silly F or UR, unlikely to damage his stats (unlikely to do much to shorten his price massively either - but the fact that he's drifted a little in the last few weeks probably reflects view that Geraghty's likely to ride Burton Port. However, a lot will depend presumably on how BP runs in the Gold Cup. If he doesn't sparkle and Geraghty opts instead for Shakalakaboomboom his price would likely shorten - Henderson is very keen on him for the GN). Likely to be on final selections list if not Soft. Bet365 is best bookie at 25/1, Betfair offered at 34.
Backing any of these 3 at this stage could prove a good move or could backfire but there is one that I would take (and have taken) a nibble at on Betfair [THE EXCHANGE FOR INTELLIGENT PUNTERS - was that OK AA?]:
Scotsirish.
I've already said a fair bit about him. He is still 33~50/1 with the bookies (Bet365 at 33/1) but offered at 120 on Betfair. His GN stats stack up, providing the ground is not Soft (he does act on soft ground, it is simply a presumption on stamina limitation at the trip on testing ground). He is still 11/4 fav for the 3m7f X-Country chase at the Festival and likely to prove (as he has in fact already, despite his jockey screwing up at Cheltenham last December) that he gets a trip carrying a biggish weight, albeit over a X-C course. I've no idea whether bookies and Betfair punters will be impressed if he obliges at Cheltenham but 120 for the GN is good enough for me. My one concern is that they may get it wrong tactically with him at Aintree. Mullins has said that he is one of his 6 intended GN runners and, though he has run well over the GN fences on both attempts, he is clearly less fancied than the 2 Wylie horses. As Scotsirish is usually held up in his races, the worry would be that they fear the trip and are too cautious. Interesting to note the comment by Racing Post journo after his 10-length 3rd in the 2.75mile Topham over the GN fences last April (after Mullins had scratched him from the GN): "Scotsirish, runner-up in the race off 1lb higher last year, clearly likes these fences and it was somewhat surprising Willie Mullins turned down the opportunity to run him in the National, as he´s always looked as though he wants further than this. He stayed on well in third...."
It is notoriously difficult to come from way back on good ground (and you can get caught up in trouble) and to give him a chance they'll need to ride him to stay in touch (they have done that with him in a couple of the 3 mile X-Cs recently to good effect). He has the speed to go the pace, tracking the leaders, and hopefully a win or good show at the Festival will prompt positive instructions at Aintree.
Hope this helps.
You are right about being handy as, unless it runs out to be a bog, the day when less fancied (aka donkeys) could outstay their shorter priced rivals are long gone. As for the cross country it always seems to be run with the last two furlong sprint up the hill in mind which is why I suspect you get the same sort of animals winning those race.
Notwithstanding this, as I have the utmost faith in your thought process, I have had a tenner at 120 on Betfair and providing I remember to do so will include Scotsirish with my two Antepost selections (Cappa Bleu & Burton Port) in F/C and T/C combos. Providing they all make it to post that is!
Anyone want to give me 20/1 on West End Rocker?