So should Synchronised be ignored now that it is carrying 11.10?
If you take at face value Jonjo's reason for pulling him out of the Irish Hennessy on Sunday
I will always struggle to take anything Jonjo says at face value PM. That's why his stable tour (and certain others) goes unopened straight in the bin ;-)
Hmm, I had picked up the tiniest hint of scepticism on our part when it comes to Jonjo's utterances ;0) You've got to be pleased with Cappa Bleu's weight.......I must get crunching.
Not a racing man, but as always, an absolute pleasure to read your posts and thought process Peanuts.
You're too kind - there are several shrewdies on here that always make this a good (and ususally profitable) discussion (there's more than one way to skin a proverbial).
Westend Rocker is in with a very decent weight and i like the Irish horse "Treacle" on 10.08 after a good run at weekend, Calgary Bay is in fine fettle at the moment wonder how he will do with 11.06 to hump around? Also Mon Mome has shown signs of a slight return to form should run well with 10.08
OK, the first definite selection by my model for this year's GN is WEST END ROCKER (20/1 Ladbrokes). There are 8 others flashing away on the radar screen (apart from Synchronised, all currently longer than 20/1 thankfully) but all have definite ground preferences and some could slip off the screen depending on whether and how they run over the coming weeks (there is also a really funky outsider than could come screaming onto it). West End Rocker's stats are good enough that whatever he does in his likely prep in the Grimthorpe on 3 March (also has an entry for the RP Chase at Kempton on 25 Feb), barring injury of course, he will have a winning score for the GN on any going, though others would probably outscore him if it came up at either extreme, fast or testing. Not exactly a surprising selection as he won the Becher Chase over the GN fences last November on heavy (jumping well and finishing strongly) - since 2004, 2 former Becher Chase winners (Amberleigh House & Silver Birch) have won the GN and another 2 (Clan Royal and Black Apalachi) have finished close 2nd. A 10 year old, allotted 10.12 is all fine, he was brought down in last year's GN, his first attempt over the fences. Curiously (though not a relevant stat for my model of course), Amberleigh House was brought down in his first GN and on his next run over the fences won the Becher Chase before recording a 3rd and then a win in the GN.....spooky! It is commonly thought that he will need it soft to be competitive. His biggest wins have come on heavy (including the big 3m5f chase at Warwick a year ago) and no doubt he would prefer cut but he's recorded some respectable performances on good ground, including against some decent sorts - sufficient for my model to suggest that he could stay in touch in a genuine good ground GN before outstaying the opposition. The main concern is that Alan King's first jockey Choc Thornton, who's ridden him on 12 of his 20 outings, has never won on him. Wayne Hutchinson has won 4 times from 5 rides on West End Rocker. I may have to revisit the question of a jockey stat next year.........in any event, ride Hold On Julio please Choc!
I'm going to mention one of those radar screen "flashers" because, to me, it seems to be significantly mispriced on Betfair (offered around 85-90 [traded recently at 140], with most bookies at 33/1): SCOTSIRISH The stats: currently a winning score providing it isn't soft or worse. Firstly, he's gone very nicely in both runs over the GN fences in the Topham (2.75 miles), being 2nd 12L and 3rd 10L and with 11.10+ both times. It may a short trip but since 1991 plenty of GN winners (Rough Quest, Bindaree, Montys Pass) and placed horses (Auntie Dot, Mely Moss, Liberthine and Clan Royal) had shown up well previously over the GN fences over 22f. The important point being he handles the fences. Secondly, while the vast majority of his 38 chases have been at less than 3 miles, he has shown that he is (at least) very capable at a trip of 3 miles+, certainly on decent ground: he was placed on Soft/Heavy with 11.10 in a Grade A 25f at Punchestown 2 years ago and was 10L behind Alfa Beat with 11.12 again on Soft/Heavy in the Kerry National in September. In his only other run at 3m over conventional fences, with 11.07+ on soft, he was 4L 2nd. In 3 X-Country chases at 3miles+ (all with 11.09+), he has won twice and in the third, a recent c.4mile X-C at Cheltenham, was very much in contention with a furlong to go and staying on well (on quick ground) when his jockey took the wrong course. He has taken so well to X-C that he is 5/2 favourite for the Cheltenham Festival X-C race (again just shy of 4 miles), in which Silver Birch finished a strong 2nd in 2007 before going on to GN victory. Silver Birch did have soft-ground Welsh National and Becher Chase victories on his resume aswell (he would surely have won that GN much more easily on softer ground) but, given Scotsirish's consistency to date over 3m+ with biggish weights and on unhelpful ground (and his competitiveness over shorter [not far short of top level], which suggests he shouldn't be outpaced), from my model's perspective he would have to run a real stinker at Cheltenham for his GN stats to fall below a winning level on decent ground, even with his allotted 11.02. Any respectable performance at the Festival and the stats will be confirmed, at least providing the GN going is no softer than Good-to-Soft (it's not that he doesn't act on soft but the combination of soft and 4.5 miles would likely defeat him). It's not unusual for outsiders to be quoted ante-post much higher on Betfair than by the bookies, sometimes reflecting doubt as to whether they will participate. With 11.02 he is 17th on the list of entries, so guaranteed a slot if the trainer and owner want one. The owner also owns The Midnight Club and doesn't appear to be averse to GN runners and Willie Mullins has said “the likes of Quiscover Fontaine, Prince De Beauchine, On His Own, Shakervilz, The Midnight Club, and Scotsirish are horses we are actively going to the National with." There's no obvious reason not to take that at face value, especially with an unusual 4 week gap between Cheltenham and Aintree, so we are down to perceptions of his chances. It seems to me that if Scotsirish were to win over almost 4 miles at the Festival (as the market suggests he should), the bookies' GN price of 33/1 is going to look a lot more like it than the current 85-90 on Betfair. Not suggesting you should take a position but I have (and no, I'm not looking to unwind it!).
EDIT Apologies folks - there are some bookies offering 50 but Betfair still offers, in my view, terrific value at this stage (still around 90 and with the ability to unwind the position) and the analysis still holds: if 5/2 fav Scotsirish obliges at the Festival over 4 miles, with his record over the GN fences, he should be a lot shorter for the big one.
@peanutsThe main concern is that Alan King's first jockey Choc Thornton, who's ridden him on 12 of his 20 outings, has never won on him. Wayne Hutchinson has won 4 times from 5 rides on West End Rocker. I may have to revisit the question of a jockey stat next year.........in any event, ride Hold On Julio please Choc!
Leave Wayne on Hands off Julio .. he's gonna ride him to victory !! (I Hope) .. I now consider Wayne to be a superior rider to Choc .. Wayne has a touch of the 'Ruby's' about him
@peanutsThe main concern is that Alan King's first jockey Choc Thornton, who's ridden him on 12 of his 20 outings, has never won on him. Wayne Hutchinson has won 4 times from 5 rides on West End Rocker. I may have to revisit the question of a jockey stat next year.........in any event, ride Hold On Julio please Choc!
Leave Wayne on Hands off Julio .. he's gonna ride him to victory !! (I Hope) .. I now consider Wayne to be a superior rider to Choc .. Wayne has a touch of the 'Ruby's' about him
I'm going to mention one of those radar screen "flashers" because, to me, it seems to be significantly mispriced on Betfair (offered around 85-90 [traded recently at 140], with most bookies at 33/1): SCOTSIRISH The stats: currently a winning score providing it isn't soft or worse. Firstly, he's gone very nicely in both runs over the GN fences in the Topham (2.75 miles), being 2nd 12L and 3rd 10L and with 11.10+ both times. It may a short trip but since 1991 plenty of GN winners (Rough Quest, Bindaree, Montys Pass) and placed horses (Auntie Dot, Mely Moss, Liberthine and Clan Royal) had shown up well previously over the GN fences over 22f. The important point being he handles the fences. Secondly, while the vast majority of his 38 chases have been at less than 3 miles, he has shown that he is (at least) very capable at a trip of 3 miles+, certainly on decent ground: he was placed on Soft/Heavy with 11.10 in a Grade A 25f at Punchestown 2 years ago and was 10L behind Alfa Beat with 11.12 again on Soft/Heavy in the Kerry National in September. In his only other run at 3m over conventional fences, with 11.07+ on soft, he was 4L 2nd. In 3 X-Country chases at 3miles+ (all with 11.09+), he has won twice and in the third, a recent c.4mile X-C at Cheltenham, was very much in contention with a furlong to go and staying on well (on quick ground) when his jockey took the wrong course. He has taken so well to X-C that he is 5/2 favourite for the Cheltenham Festival X-C race (again just shy of 4 miles), in which Silver Birch finished a strong 2nd in 2007 before going on to GN victory. Silver Birch did have soft-ground Welsh National and Becher Chase victories on his resume aswell (he would surely have won that GN much more easily on softer ground) but, given Scotsirish's consistency to date over 3m+ with biggish weights and on unhelpful ground (and his competitiveness over shorter [not far short of top level], which suggests he shouldn't be outpaced), from my model's perspective he would have to run a real stinker at Cheltenham for his GN stats to fall below a winning level on decent ground, even with his allotted 11.02. Any respectable performance at the Festival and the stats will be confirmed, at least providing the GN going is no softer than Good-to-Soft (it's not that he doesn't act on soft but the combination of soft and 4.5 miles would likely defeat him). It's not unusual for outsiders to be quoted ante-post much higher on Betfair than by the bookies, sometimes reflecting doubt as to whether they will participate. With 11.02 he is 17th on the list of entries, so guaranteed a slot if the trainer and owner want one. The owner also owns The Midnight Club and doesn't appear to be averse to GN runners and Willie Mullins has said “the likes of Quiscover Fontaine, Prince De Beauchine, On His Own, Shakervilz, The Midnight Club, and Scotsirish are horses we are actively going to the National with." There's no obvious reason not to take that at face value, especially with an unusual 4 week gap between Cheltenham and Aintree, so we are down to perceptions of his chances. It seems to me that if Scotsirish were to win over almost 4 miles at the Festival (as the market suggests he should), the bookies' GN price of 33/1 is going to look a lot more like it than the current 85-90 on Betfair. Not suggesting you should take a position but I have (and no, I'm not looking to unwind it!).
Cheers Davy (and Stan James now I look more closely, but I think most are at 33). To be honest I never bet in the GN with Ladbrokes and WH as they never give 5th place (none do until much nearer the race) and a few small firms go to the 6th of course. The Betfair win market is handy to get positioned in the meantime.
EDIT Apologies folks - there are some bookies offering 50 but Betfair still offers, in my view, terrific value at this stage (still around 90 and with the ability to unwind the position) and the analysis still holds: if 5/2 fav Scotsirish obliges at the Festival over 4 miles, with his record over the GN fences, he should be a lot shorter for the big one.
It was, but he's still just cost me a packet. Again!!!!!!!!!
I won't ruin your day by saying I had the F/C ;-)
Nice one AA. I now realise the first time I fail to back Burton over fences, probably next time in the Gold Cup, will be the time it gets up on the line to beat my fancy.
It was, but he's still just cost me a packet. Again!!!!!!!!!
I won't ruin your day by saying I had the F/C ;-)
Nice one AA. I now realise the first time I fail to back Burton over fences, probably next time in the Gold Cup, will be the time it gets up on the line to beat my fancy.
That being the case, perhaps you could do me a favour and not back him in the GN either. 16/1 best now for the race with the bookies (18.5 on Betfair)
It was, but he's still just cost me a packet. Again!!!!!!!!!
I won't ruin your day by saying I had the F/C ;-)
Nice one AA. I now realise the first time I fail to back Burton over fences, probably next time in the Gold Cup, will be the time it gets up on the line to beat my fancy.
That being the case, perhaps you could do me a favour and not back him in the GN either.
Long Run really is a poor GC winner. Kauto will have no trouble with any of them lot. Burton Port is still in the National
See my edit re 16/1 best price Burton for GN.
He really is a terrific little horse. He pulled hard over the first 1/2 mile as you'd expect but it might have cost him the race. Certainly has a lot got a lot going for him in the GN but 2 reservations for me: 1. At this stage 11.07 in the GN looks just a tad too much 2. 2nd race back from a lay-off is a real test and the GC will tell us everything. If he is there or thereabouts with the best of them off levels he'd surely have a massive chance in the big one. Well done for getting on so early AA (and for the forecast)
That was a hell of a time for that Denman chase - 5.47 secs faster than standard. Course record it seems, though same true of the previous chase apparently. Will be quite a test of his tendon repair.
Don't think Long Run can be called a poor GC winner, he was giving a fair bit of weight away today. Jumped well and will be there right at the business end of proceedings on March 16th
I think if Barry was on Long Run he'd put in better performances to be honest.
I think Barry was tender on BP in the latter stages and understandably so given his absence. It would also have suited the stable to get Long Run back to winning ways ;-)
Interesting to see if the ground is as good at Ascot as it was at Newbury yesterday. The 3.5 mile Grand National Trial at Haydock (3.20) is going to be a serious test of stamina. Neptune Collonges, Always Right, Mon Mome, Le Beau Bai, Giles Cross, Some Target and King Fontaine all run and are GN entries (and Prince De Beauchene's half brother, Miko De Beauchene, a former winner of this also runs). Despite its name this race has never had a strong correlation to GN success and since 2007/08, when they replaced the original stiff Haydock fences with removable ones, the 2 winners that have then run in the GN have both disappointed (though Silver By Nature didn't have his ground at Aintree). In the old days, Party Politics ran well in it when it was the Greenalls Gold Cup before GN victory in 1992 and Suny Bay won it before his GN 2nd in 1997 but not shining in it certainly doesn't preclude a GN victory a few weeks later (Earth Summit finished a remote 5th and Mon Mome a remote 7th). As for this afternoon, no stats involved, purely my own unreliable opinion, but watch out for Fredo.
Comments
You've got to be pleased with Cappa Bleu's weight.......I must get crunching.
There are 8 others flashing away on the radar screen (apart from Synchronised, all currently longer than 20/1 thankfully) but all have definite ground preferences and some could slip off the screen depending on whether and how they run over the coming weeks (there is also a really funky outsider than could come screaming onto it).
West End Rocker's stats are good enough that whatever he does in his likely prep in the Grimthorpe on 3 March (also has an entry for the RP Chase at Kempton on 25 Feb), barring injury of course, he will have a winning score for the GN on any going, though others would probably outscore him if it came up at either extreme, fast or testing.
Not exactly a surprising selection as he won the Becher Chase over the GN fences last November on heavy (jumping well and finishing strongly) - since 2004, 2 former Becher Chase winners (Amberleigh House & Silver Birch) have won the GN and another 2 (Clan Royal and Black Apalachi) have finished close 2nd.
A 10 year old, allotted 10.12 is all fine, he was brought down in last year's GN, his first attempt over the fences. Curiously (though not a relevant stat for my model of course), Amberleigh House was brought down in his first GN and on his next run over the fences won the Becher Chase before recording a 3rd and then a win in the GN.....spooky!
It is commonly thought that he will need it soft to be competitive. His biggest wins have come on heavy (including the big 3m5f chase at Warwick a year ago) and no doubt he would prefer cut but he's recorded some respectable performances on good ground, including against some decent sorts - sufficient for my model to suggest that he could stay in touch in a genuine good ground GN before outstaying the opposition.
The main concern is that Alan King's first jockey Choc Thornton, who's ridden him on 12 of his 20 outings, has never won on him. Wayne Hutchinson has won 4 times from 5 rides on West End Rocker. I may have to revisit the question of a jockey stat next year.........in any event, ride Hold On Julio please Choc!
SCOTSIRISH
The stats: currently a winning score providing it isn't soft or worse.
Firstly, he's gone very nicely in both runs over the GN fences in the Topham (2.75 miles), being 2nd 12L and 3rd 10L and with 11.10+ both times. It may a short trip but since 1991 plenty of GN winners (Rough Quest, Bindaree, Montys Pass) and placed horses (Auntie Dot, Mely Moss, Liberthine and Clan Royal) had shown up well previously over the GN fences over 22f. The important point being he handles the fences.
Secondly, while the vast majority of his 38 chases have been at less than 3 miles, he has shown that he is (at least) very capable at a trip of 3 miles+, certainly on decent ground: he was placed on Soft/Heavy with 11.10 in a Grade A 25f at Punchestown 2 years ago and was 10L behind Alfa Beat with 11.12 again on Soft/Heavy in the Kerry National in September. In his only other run at 3m over conventional fences, with 11.07+ on soft, he was 4L 2nd. In 3 X-Country chases at 3miles+ (all with 11.09+), he has won twice and in the third, a recent c.4mile X-C at Cheltenham, was very much in contention with a furlong to go and staying on well (on quick ground) when his jockey took the wrong course. He has taken so well to X-C that he is 5/2 favourite for the Cheltenham Festival X-C race (again just shy of 4 miles), in which Silver Birch finished a strong 2nd in 2007 before going on to GN victory. Silver Birch did have soft-ground Welsh National and Becher Chase victories on his resume aswell (he would surely have won that GN much more easily on softer ground) but, given Scotsirish's consistency to date over 3m+ with biggish weights and on unhelpful ground (and his competitiveness over shorter [not far short of top level], which suggests he shouldn't be outpaced), from my model's perspective he would have to run a real stinker at Cheltenham for his GN stats to fall below a winning level on decent ground, even with his allotted 11.02. Any respectable performance at the Festival and the stats will be confirmed, at least providing the GN going is no softer than Good-to-Soft (it's not that he doesn't act on soft but the combination of soft and 4.5 miles would likely defeat him).
It's not unusual for outsiders to be quoted ante-post much higher on Betfair than by the bookies, sometimes reflecting doubt as to whether they will participate. With 11.02 he is 17th on the list of entries, so guaranteed a slot if the trainer and owner want one. The owner also owns The Midnight Club and doesn't appear to be averse to GN runners and Willie Mullins has said “the likes of Quiscover Fontaine, Prince De Beauchine, On His Own, Shakervilz, The Midnight Club, and Scotsirish are horses we are actively going to the National with." There's no obvious reason not to take that at face value, especially with an unusual 4 week gap between Cheltenham and Aintree, so we are down to perceptions of his chances.
It seems to me that if Scotsirish were to win over almost 4 miles at the Festival (as the market suggests he should), the bookies' GN price of 33/1 is going to look a lot more like it than the current 85-90 on Betfair.
Not suggesting you should take a position but I have (and no, I'm not looking to unwind it!).
EDIT
Apologies folks - there are some bookies offering 50 but Betfair still offers, in my view, terrific value at this stage (still around 90 and with the ability to unwind the position) and the analysis still holds: if 5/2 fav Scotsirish obliges at the Festival over 4 miles, with his record over the GN fences, he should be a lot shorter for the big one.
Leave Wayne on Hands off Julio .. he's gonna ride him to victory !! (I Hope) .. I now consider Wayne to be a superior rider to Choc .. Wayne has a touch of the 'Ruby's' about him
I hope he's not going to have a curry on the day ! Could put a new slant on ' leaving it all behind '.
EDIT
Apologies folks - there are some bookies offering 50 but Betfair still offers, in my view, terrific value at this stage (still around 90 and with the ability to unwind the position) and the analysis still holds: if 5/2 fav Scotsirish obliges at the Festival over 4 miles, with his record over the GN fences, he should be a lot shorter for the big one.
I now realise the first time I fail to back Burton over fences, probably next time in the Gold Cup, will be the time it gets up on the line to beat my fancy.
1. At this stage 11.07 in the GN looks just a tad too much
2. 2nd race back from a lay-off is a real test and the GC will tell us everything. If he is there or thereabouts with the best of them off levels he'd surely have a massive chance in the big one.
Well done for getting on so early AA (and for the forecast)
Don't think Long Run can be called a poor GC winner, he was giving a fair bit of weight away today. Jumped well and will be there right at the business end of proceedings on March 16th
The 3.5 mile Grand National Trial at Haydock (3.20) is going to be a serious test of stamina. Neptune Collonges, Always Right, Mon Mome, Le Beau Bai, Giles Cross, Some Target and King Fontaine all run and are GN entries (and Prince De Beauchene's half brother, Miko De Beauchene, a former winner of this also runs). Despite its name this race has never had a strong correlation to GN success and since 2007/08, when they replaced the original stiff Haydock fences with removable ones, the 2 winners that have then run in the GN have both disappointed (though Silver By Nature didn't have his ground at Aintree).
In the old days, Party Politics ran well in it when it was the Greenalls Gold Cup before GN victory in 1992 and Suny Bay won it before his GN 2nd in 1997 but not shining in it certainly doesn't preclude a GN victory a few weeks later (Earth Summit finished a remote 5th and Mon Mome a remote 7th).
As for this afternoon, no stats involved, purely my own unreliable opinion, but watch out for Fredo.