By recent standards yes but numbers have been falling year-by-year (there were 74 last year left in at this stage, 75 in 2010, 88 in 2009) but we only started with 82 entries (102 last year, 112 in 2010, 123 in 2009). No doubt the new qualification rules played some part but seems to be a trend. Should have a full field of 40 though but can't entirely rule out a runner from out of the handicap (would need 12 to come out). 2004 was the last time that happened.
Also from RP this morning: The BHA's head of handicapping, Phil Smith, says both Synchronised and Sunnyhillboy would be favourably treated in the National following their Cheltenham wins, although Sunnyhillboy, rather than his more illustrious stablemate, would be the more leniently treated. Smith said: "The slight advantage Synchronised has is that he is now on a mark of 168 after the Gold Cup and he'd be running in this race off a mark of 161 so technically he's 7lb well in. "Sunnyhillboy was the widest margin handicap winner at Cheltenham and has gone up 10lb so technically he is well in by that amount and the runner-up in his race, Becauseicouldntsee (20-1), has gone up 5lb so they would have a different rating now if I reframed the race."
That's all good but, furthermore, Sunnyhillboy finished that 3.25m race with 11.11 very strongly (by contrast Ballabriggs with 11.12 crawled over the line in the same race on similar ground a year before his GN win with 11.00). Sunnyhillboy carries 10.05 and is bred to get 4 miles+ - if you had an estimated mark for that trip he'd be even better off.
That GC run did Burton Port no harm statistically either AA, assuming no reaction in his leg.
OK, it’s time to attempt another cashectomy upon the bookies. Selections listed and explained below for the 2012 GN in 3 weeks time.
Apologies for the total length of this post, which is delivered in sections. The analysis is a bit more complicated this year.
PART 1
For those unfamiliar with my GN stat-based model, a quick summary:
- It uses the pre-GN career stats for all horses finishing in the first 3 and others placed up to 20 lengths of the winners of all GNs from 1988 onwards (excl. the Red Marauder GN). This gives a sample of 22 winners, another 12 placed up to 4 lengths of the winners, another 10 placed 4~10 lengths and another 30 placed 10~20 lengths. Of those 74, only 1 (Cerium, 18.5-length 5th in 2009) is unaccounted for statistically by the model. To aid back-testing should the model require tweaking, the database also includes the rest of the fields of the 2008~11 GNs, so in total it comprises data for 221 horses.
- Applying a range of criteria, the model derives a score for each runner according to its career stats, looking for “best-fits” with those of the winners and, importantly, horses placed up to 4 lengths of them (luck in running easily accounting for 4-lengths+ in staying chases). It doesn’t use red-line eliminators (though 7 year-olds have such a terrible record in recent decades that their age penalty is de facto a red-line). This means that selections could be major “stat-busters” according to most trend-following methods – this is certainly evident this year - but that’s the way the model accounts for developing trends and the reason it didn’t automatically eliminate Mon Mome (first French-bred) and Don’t Push It (first to carry 11.05 since 1982). With compression of the weights, some stats aren’t as bomb-proof as they may once have been.
Backing selections each-way or Betfair win and place on a weighted basis, it’s been profitable for me in each of the last 6 years that I’ve been using it.
A couple of observations before we get to the selections:
- There’s an important variable this year which complicates matters.
The main tweak of the model after Ballabriggs’ 2011 win in the 3rd fastest time ever was to apply different criteria to each runner’s stats according to different going. While some horses have the attributes to win a GN on any ground, a weakness of the model was that, for a GN on quick ground, it didn’t have a systematic yardstick to penalise those out-and-out stayers that lacked the speed to go the pace and, conversely, didn’t identify horses that, despite a lack of form at 3.5m+, could get the trip on quick ground. The size of my database now makes it possible to attempt this distinction and thereby hopefully improve results (if complicating the betting strategy).
So the selections are divided into 2 lists, one for Good (i.e anything better than Good-to-Soft) and another for Good-to-Soft and Softer (incl. Heavy), though happily there is some overlap. We don’t know what the going will be but it seems likely that, to minimise the risk of another furore, they will apply sufficient water to ensure that it isn’t quick. On the other hand, given the general lack of rain (AccuWeather forecasts only modest rainfall before the meeting), it would seem odds against it being soft. I’ll be watching closely the times of the Fox Hunters and Topham Chases over the GN course on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting.
- I caution every year that the model is due a blank and that caution is double-underlined this year since, from the model’s perspective, it’s a particularly competitive GN.
Of the current top 40 entries, if the going is Good or thereabouts, the model rates 5 horses as having a winning stat-score and a further 7 to be within the “margin of error” (i.e. a score consistent with finishing within 10~20 lengths of the winner and 1 of these [Planet Of Sound] has stats consistent with being 4~10 lengths away). By comparison, back-testing the current model, the highest number of horses with a winning score in a recent Good ground GN was in 2008 when 4 had winning stats and another 2 were within the “margin of error” (33 lengths actually covered the first 6 in the race).
The picture’s similar on Good-to-Soft so that on Good or GS we have roughly twice as many “in the ballpark” statistically as in previous years.
By contrast, on Soft or Heavy the confidence level is higher - there are just 4 horses which it rates as potential winners and 2 within the “margin of error”. I’m practising my rain dance, much to my dog’s and the neighbours’ amusement.
All of that said, the model's served me well in good and softer ground GNs and, as usual, I'll be putting my money where my slide-rule is.
NB. Be aware that one or more of these could be scratched though all are thought likely runners if they're fit and the ground is suitable (Non-Runner-No-Bet & 5-places already offered by Bet365, albeit at lower than best prices available)
Selections (in stat-score order):
GOOD GROUND (Anything better than Good-To-Soft)
1 Synchronised 2 Sunnyhillboy 3 West End Rocker 4 Burton Port & Shakalakaboomboom
Strong Place Potential: Planet Of Sound (if weights don’t rise)
Big runs but no cigar (“margin of error”) [in card order]: Junior, According To Pete, Cappa Bleu, Mon Mome (would need cut), Killyglen, Becauseicouldntsee
GOOD-TO-SOFT & SOFTER
1 Synchronised 2 Giles Cross 3 Le Beau Bai 4 West End Rocker 5 Burton Port (GS only ["margin of error" on Soft~Hvy]) & Shakalakaboomboom (GS only)
Strong Place Potential: Sunnyhillboy (GS only)
Big runs but no cigar (“margin of error”) [in card order]: Neptune Collonges, Planet Of Sound (GS only), According To Pete (GS only), Cappa Bleu (GS only), Mon Mome (GS only), Killyglen (GS only)
Ground for Winning Chance: Any, but the softer the better
Best-price booky: 12/1 Betfair win: 16.5
You have to be insane to identify a NAP in the GN (and I’m not quite that nutty……..quiet Henry). However, if I were ever to take leave of my senses and give a NAP, it would be Synchronised this year, despite the fact that, as top-weight and as this season’s Gold Cup winner, he would blow two major stats away if he were to win.
On least-favoured Good ground, his GC win gives him the highest GN stat-score (joint with ’97 winner Lord Gyllene and ’03 winner Monty’s Pass) since Rough Quest set the 2nd-fastest GN winning time in 1996 carrying 10.07.
On Soft ground, because of his exceptional stamina credentials, despite his 11.10 burden, he has the highest stat-score of any runner since 1988 - previous highest was Earth Summit who carried 10.05 in the mud to win the 1998 GN.
• Won or placed in 78% of all chases. Of the last 22 GN winners, only Hedgehunter (82%) and Lord Gyllene (80%) had a higher rate.
• Strike Rate of 71% (wins and up to 4L of winner) in chases at 3m+. Ballabriggs is the only GN winner since 1988 to match that rate, though he’d never raced beyond 3.25m. Beyond 3.25m, SYNC’s Strike Rate is 80%.
• Won 2010 Welsh National on Heavy with 11.06 (since 1976 only 2 WN winners carried more weight). There is a strong correlation between the Welsh and Aintree Nationals. Since 1988, horses that previously won or were placed in the front 4 in the WN account for 8 GN victories (Rhyme ‘N’ Reason, Party Politics, Miinnehoma, Earth Summit, Bindaree, Hedgehunter, Silver Birch and Mon Mome) and another 6 GN first 3 placings.
• Dual Grade 1 winner (Lexus and GC) this season, both on decent ground. It is 78 years since Golden Miller achieved the only same-season GC-GN double but he’s the first to attempt it since 1995 and only the 5th since 1988. Most notable of those:
o Garrison Savannah was a 5-length 2nd with 11.01 in the 1991 GN and was leading 100 yards from the line
o Master Oats was a mudlark that had won the GC on Soft and was a valliant 15-length 7th with 11.10 on Good ground (verging on GF) in the 1995 GN
Aside from GC winners, strong performances in it have often preceded wins or near-misses in the GN a few weeks later: Miinnehoma (won 1994 GN), Rough Quest (won 1996), Suny Bay (2nd in 1998), What’s Up Boys (2nd in 2002), Royal Auclair (2nd in 2005) and Hedgehunter (2nd in 2006).
The “Golden Miller”-stat looks like one waiting to be bust and SYNC has one other factor is his favour – a 4 week break between Cheltenham and Aintree, at least a week longer than any of those above.
• Yet to encounter the GN fences but has no F or UR in 9 chases (one F at the last in a hurdle 3 years ago). The only PU of his career came in the Irish National a year ago when AP rode another McManus horse and SYNC was never in the race. There is no stat for jockeys in my model but there can be no doubt that SYNC must have AP on board to run his race.
• A 9 year old, 4 runs in the season and 29 days since last run are fully consistent with a GN winner’s stats.
• What isn’t consistent with recent GN winners, as we know, is the weight he’ll carry (11.10) because none has carried more than 11.08 since Red Rum carried 12.00 in 1974. The model applies a penalty for this burden but the reason it’s not a de facto “red-line” is that there have been 5 GN near-misses with 11.10+ since 1988:
o The Thinker - 3rd (7.5L) with 11.10 in 1989 (Heavy) o Suny Bay - 2nd (11L) with 12.00 in 1998 (Heavy) o Royal Auclair - 2nd (14L) with 11.10 in 2005 (Good / GS) o Hedgehunter - 2nd (6L) with 11.12 in 2006 (GS / Soft) o Don’t Push It - 3rd (14L) with 11.10 in 2011 (Good)
There are many variables that could undo Synchronised: he may not take to the fences, he may not be fully over his GC exertions, McCoy may not be available to ride and he could be vulnerable to traffic problems if he drops to mid-division in a quick ground GN. But his GN stats are so strong that, given the absence of misfortune, the model suggests they more than compensate for the burden of being top-weight.
Ground for Winning Chance: Good & easy side of Good
Best-price booky: 16/1 Betfair win: 19
Another Jonjo-JP entry whose performance at Cheltenham gave his GN stats a significant boost though, unlike his stablemate, he would prefer Good ground. If he gets it the model indicates that he is 2nd only to SYNC in terms of winning profile. A Green & Gold reverse forecast?
• Though SHB has only 1 win in 3 chases at 3m+, he was an unlucky 3rd (6L) in the 2011 Irish National on Good (kept on well after being almost brought down 4 out).
• Prior to that, he’d shown ability around 2.5m, notably when 2nd in a fast-run Byrne Group Chase at the 2010 Festival.
• Victory in the 3.25m Kim Muir Chase at this year’s Cheltenham Festival carrying 11.11 is most significant. Ballabriggs won the KM with 11.12 (a year before his 2011 GN victory with 11.00), clocking a similar time to SHB on similar ground but tying up at the line. It is also the race that Junior won very impressively last year with 11.06. Junior is due to carry 11.02 in the GN, SHB is due to carry 10.05 and is 10lbs “well-in” off his new handicap mark. Moreover, the way he finished up the hill at Cheltenham, surging past Becauseicouldntsee (who was not stopping), suggests that his advantage should be even greater over a longer trip.
• Stamina in his pedigree. By Old Vic, one of the leading sires of staying chasers of recent times (incl. 2008 GN winner Comply Or Die and 2010 winner and runner-up Don’t Push It and Black Apalachi) his dam was a half-sister to the splendid Brown Windsor (4th in the 1990 GN, 2nd in the 1989 Hennessy and winner of the 1989 Whitbread Gold Cup (3m5f, now the Bet365 Gold Cup).
• 50% Win & Place ratio in 12 chases and 1 F and 1 PU in 21 races over obstacles is unremarkable but OK as regards GN stats.
• So too is 4 runs in the season and 30 days since last.
• Yet to experience the GN fences and the biggest risks for SHB may be not handling them (not a big horse) or misfortune in running (though ridden more handily in the KM, he’s usually held up and could be vulnerable to traffic problems). Like his stablemate, if he is still standing and within striking distance 2 out, he is going to take some stopping.
- WEST END ROCKER
Age 10, weight 10.12
Ground for Winning Chance: Any, preferably neither extreme
Best-price booky: 20/1 Betfair win: 20
• Respectable 50% Win & Place Ratio in 14 chases
• WER was quietly fancied for last year’s GN but was brought down at first Bechers. Proved he handles the fences when winning the Becher Chase (3.25m and finishing strongly) in December on Heavy, though the time and jockey comments indicate that the going was better than the official description. In the last 8 GNs, Becher Chase winners have accounted for 2 GN wins (Amberleigh House in 2004 & Silver Birch in 2007 – both had won the Becher on Soft) two 2nds and one 3rd.
• Won the Grade 3 Totesport Classic (formerly the Warwick National) over 3m5f in 2011, also on Heavy but he has handled better ground, including against some decent opposition. In fact, a poor run over 3.5m in the mud in the 2011 Grand National Trial suggests that the very holding ground typical of “Haydock Heavy” isn’t to his liking (as John Francome often says, there’s different types of Heavy) and that he’d prefer neither extreme of going (quick or very testing).
• No F or UR in 20 hurdles and chases.
• 2 runs this season is fine but he missed his prep (quick ground) and so it is 133 days since his last (his Becher Chase win). This could be considered a stat-buster since all GN winners since 1988 had their last run less than 50 days before. However, GN near-misses tell a different story – Mely Moss was touched off by Papillon in 2000 despite having his first run for 345 days and, notably, Clan Royal was 2nd (5L) in 2004 (should have won), his last race being victory in the Becher Chase 132 days before.
• Jockey is a funky-one. WER is Alan King’s only GN runner and Choc Thornton is the yard’s first jockey. He’s ridden WER in 12 of his 20 races and is yet to win on him (though he’s come within 3 lengths of doing so 4 times). Wayne Hutchinson is 2nd jockey and has ridden him 5 times, winning 4. No “jockey-stat” so model is indifferent but from a personal perspective, while of course I wouldn’t wish injury on anyone, I’ll settle for flu.
A win by BP would not only be a stat-buster in terms of the weight but would be a remarkable feat of training. BP suffered tendon damage after his 2nd in the 2010 Hennessy and has run only twice since a 457 day break. But then nothing should surprise if it comes from the yard of the recently-crowned King of Cheltenham, Nicky Henderson.
• Won or placed in 89% of all chases to date (tops all GN winners since 1988 and all other runners this year). In fact, until his GC 4th, he hadn’t been out of the paying places in 16 races under rules, winning 7.
• 75% Strike Rate (wins and <4L) in 3m+ chases (tops all GN winners since 1988 & 2nd best in the field).
• Close 2nd (1.25L) in the 2010 Hennessy. Strong correlation between GN and Hennessy: since 1988, 4 GN wins (Mr Frisk, Party Politics, Rough Quest and Comply Or Die) and 10 GN places by horses that had won or been placed in the Hennessy.
• 2 fine runs since return from injury and since GN weights announced: good 2nd to Long Run in a Grade 2 (handicap raised afterwards, making him 8lbs “well-in” in the GN) and a battling 4th (8L) in the GC (GC-GN same-season correlation noted above). Unusual, and a meaningful positive, for a GN runner to have posted 2 strong performances in 3m+ Class 1 chases (or equiv.) in the post-weights period (Rough Quest did so before his 1996 win as did 8y-o Snowy Morning prior to his 5.5-length 3rd in the 2008 GN).
• BP’s also an 8 year-old. Only 2 GN winners since 1988 were aged 8 (both won on quick ground), none since Bindaree in 2002, but plenty placed since then. However they have an appreciably worse GN record on Soft and so, though he’s won minor races on Soft and Heavy, the model penalises him on it because of his age.
• Yet to race at 3.5m+ but no sign of stopping in either Hennessy or GC. Ballabriggs and Monty’s Pass were untested at 3.5m+ prior to GN victories, though again both were on Good ground.
• 2 appearances this season, 29 days since last are good GN stats.
• Yet to encounter the GN fences but no F or UR in 15 hurdles and chases under rules.
• Weight of 11.07 would make him a stat-buster but big-weight GN near-misses noted above and his other stats more than compensate to give him a winning-score providing it’s not Soft.
- SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
Age 8, weight 10.12
Best-price booky: 25/1 Betfair win: 30
Ground for Winning Chance: Good and Good-to-Soft
May or may not be Geraghty’s choice of ride but it wouldn’t be the first time in recent years that a yard’s lesser string has come up trumps in the GN - Carl Lllewellyn chose Beau (UR) over Bindaree (winner in 2002) and Royal Athlete (winner in 1995) was, at best, the 4th string of Jenny Pitman’s 6 runners.
• Experience of the GN fences a year ago – 7th (26L) over an inadequate 2.75m in the fastest-run Topham since the distance was shortened in 2001. He was in touch until late when one-paced but jumped well.
• Consistency in 3m+ chases is a key strength (like his stablemate, albeit in lesser company) with a 100% Strike Rate (wins & <4L), topping all GN winners since 1988 and the best in the field.
• Best runs have come this season with a win over 3.25m in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham on Good, finishing strongly up the hill, followed by a close 2nd to Calgary Bay in a strong-pace Great Yorkshire Chase in January.
• Yet to race at 3.5m+ but has run like he would relish further and his pedigree suggests stamina. He is by Anshan which, despite being a miler, sired some decent staying chasers (including McKelvey, close 2nd in the 2007 GN) and his dam-sire is Supreme Leader – many good staying chasers among his progeny, including Supreme Glory (2nd 2003 GN) and What’s Up Boys (2nd 2002 GN).
• Again like his stablemate, he is an 8 y-o so the same negative about Soft ground applies, particularly as he is yet to run over fences on softer than GS.
- GILES CROSS - Needs 6 to come out [should do] to get a run but likely only to do so if Good-to-Soft or softer
Age 10, weight 10.01
Ground for Winning Chance: Good-to-Soft or Softer, preferably not testing
Best-price booky: 25/1 Betfair win: 30
• 2nd (2.75L) in the 2010 Welsh National (3.75m) on Soft (strong WN-GN correlation noted above), behind Synchronised (GC receiving 18lbs) but leading all the way (as customary for him) until 2 out. Extrapolating from relative weights is very dangerous, particularly in long distance chases and with an extra 6f to run, but he will receive 23lbs from SYNC at Aintree.
• 2nd (7L) in the 2011 Welsh National, having set an unforgiving pace with Le Beau Bai on Heavy before being outstayed by him (giving LBB 5lbs). Of note, Cappa Bleu ran well in that Welsh National to finish 3rd with 11.03.
• Weights and placings with LBB were reversed in the Grade 3 Grand National Trial at Haydock in February, GC receiving 2lbs from LBB (as he will in the GN) and beating him by 11-lengths over the 3.5m trip on Heavy. Racing from the front but at a more measured pace than at Chepstow he had enough in the tank also to hold off by a neck a fine effort from Neptune Collonges. On his revised mark after this win, GC is 6lbs “well-in” in the GN.
• 75% Win & Place ratio in 12 chases is 4th best in the field and bettered by only 3 GN winners since 1988.
• Yet to face the GN fences but he has only 1 F in 16 races under rules, more than 2 years ago.
• 3 runs in the season, the last 56 days prior is OK though a slightly extended break.
• Carries only 10.01. Hasn’t been a GN runner with less than 10.02 since 2004, when Lord Atterbury was a 5-length 3rd carrying 10.01. Already won off his GN handicap mark of 138 (Numbersixvalverde in 2007 and Silver Birch in 2008 won the GN off a mark of 138).
• A front-runner if the ground permits, he should avoid trouble but the big questionmark over GC is what ground would best suit him. Given speed limitation, he won’t run unless it is Good-to-Soft or softer but there is a doubt over his stamina at 4m+ on testing ground, revealed in the 2011 Eider on desperate ground and again in the last Welsh National. While all of his chase wins have come on Soft or Heavy, at an extreme trip, so long as the ground is soft enough to accommodate his front-running style, Good-to-Soft~Soft would seem preferable.
- LE BEAU BAI – Needs 2 to come out [highly probable] though may not run unless Soft
Age 9, weight 10.03
Ground for Winning Chance: At least Good-to-Soft but Heavy provides best chance
Best-price booky: 40/1 Betfair win: 110
A true mudlark, it simply can’t be deep or far enough for LBB but if it were to come up Soft~Heavy, he would have a serious chance. Even on proper GS, if he takes to the fences, he could be a contender over 4.5m.
• 3rd (8L) in the 2009 Welsh National on Heavy, he won it in 2011 (strong WN-GN correlation noted above) with 10.01, also on Heavy. He’ll carry 10.03 in the GN (OR140), a 9lb rise in his handicap mark from Chepstow, but he has won off OR139 over fences.
• Respectable 59% Win & Place Ratio in all chases, including in 3 consecutive GN Trials at Haydock (all on Heavy) and 3rd (9.5L) behind West End Rocker in the Grade 3 Totesport Classic over 3m5f on Heavy in 2011 (receiving 1lb), he’ll be getting 9lbs from WER in the GN.
• No F or UR in 16 hurdles and 17 chases (all 3m+) is certainly noteworthy but he is yet to face the GN fences.
• 6 runs in the season, the last being 56 days prior are all OK GN stats, albeit a slightly longer than ideal break.
OK folks, that’s it. For those that have stayed awake, congratulations. You clearly have stamina worthy of Aintree itself.
Best of luck, whichever horses you back. Above all, let’s hope all horses and jocks come back safe and sound.
Seabass Apt Approach Cappa Bleu Organisedconfusion Psycho The Midnight Club Giles Cross Arbor Supreme Quiscover Fontaine Vic Venturi Le Beau Bai Midnight Haze
also have entries for the Irish National, to be run 5 days before Aintree on Easter Monday Reminds me of the mare Ebony Jane who in 1994 was 3rd in the Irish Nat on Soft and then, amazingly, 5 days later, led them round on Heavy ground at Aintree and was still leading 3 out before tiring and finishing 4th to Miinnehoma. Wotta dame.
Comments
Should have a full field of 40 though but can't entirely rule out a runner from out of the handicap (would need 12 to come out). 2004 was the last time that happened.
"If he's firing on all cylinders nearer the race I would definitely want to go for the National"
The BHA's head of handicapping, Phil Smith, says both Synchronised and Sunnyhillboy would be favourably treated in the National following their Cheltenham wins, although Sunnyhillboy, rather than his more illustrious stablemate, would be the more leniently treated.
Smith said: "The slight advantage Synchronised has is that he is now on a mark of 168 after the Gold Cup and he'd be running in this race off a mark of 161 so technically he's 7lb well in.
"Sunnyhillboy was the widest margin handicap winner at Cheltenham and has gone up 10lb so technically he is well in by that amount and the runner-up in his race, Becauseicouldntsee (20-1), has gone up 5lb so they would have a different rating now if I reframed the race."
That's all good but, furthermore, Sunnyhillboy finished that 3.25m race with 11.11 very strongly (by contrast Ballabriggs with 11.12 crawled over the line in the same race on similar ground a year before his GN win with 11.00). Sunnyhillboy carries 10.05 and is bred to get 4 miles+ - if you had an estimated mark for that trip he'd be even better off.
That GC run did Burton Port no harm statistically either AA, assuming no reaction in his leg.
Apologies for the total length of this post, which is delivered in sections. The analysis is a bit more complicated this year.
PART 1
For those unfamiliar with my GN stat-based model, a quick summary:
- It uses the pre-GN career stats for all horses finishing in the first 3 and others placed up to 20 lengths of the winners of all GNs from 1988 onwards (excl. the Red Marauder GN). This gives a sample of 22 winners, another 12 placed up to 4 lengths of the winners, another 10 placed 4~10 lengths and another 30 placed 10~20 lengths. Of those 74, only 1 (Cerium, 18.5-length 5th in 2009) is unaccounted for statistically by the model. To aid back-testing should the model require tweaking, the database also includes the rest of the fields of the 2008~11 GNs, so in total it comprises data for 221 horses.
- Applying a range of criteria, the model derives a score for each runner according to its career stats, looking for “best-fits” with those of the winners and, importantly, horses placed up to 4 lengths of them (luck in running easily accounting for 4-lengths+ in staying chases). It doesn’t use red-line eliminators (though 7 year-olds have such a terrible record in recent decades that their age penalty is de facto a red-line). This means that selections could be major “stat-busters” according to most trend-following methods – this is certainly evident this year - but that’s the way the model accounts for developing trends and the reason it didn’t automatically eliminate Mon Mome (first French-bred) and Don’t Push It (first to carry 11.05 since 1982). With compression of the weights, some stats aren’t as bomb-proof as they may once have been.
Backing selections each-way or Betfair win and place on a weighted basis, it’s been profitable for me in each of the last 6 years that I’ve been using it.
A couple of observations before we get to the selections:
- There’s an important variable this year which complicates matters.
The main tweak of the model after Ballabriggs’ 2011 win in the 3rd fastest time ever was to apply different criteria to each runner’s stats according to different going. While some horses have the attributes to win a GN on any ground, a weakness of the model was that, for a GN on quick ground, it didn’t have a systematic yardstick to penalise those out-and-out stayers that lacked the speed to go the pace and, conversely, didn’t identify horses that, despite a lack of form at 3.5m+, could get the trip on quick ground. The size of my database now makes it possible to attempt this distinction and thereby hopefully improve results (if complicating the betting strategy).
So the selections are divided into 2 lists, one for Good (i.e anything better than Good-to-Soft) and another for Good-to-Soft and Softer (incl. Heavy), though happily there is some overlap. We don’t know what the going will be but it seems likely that, to minimise the risk of another furore, they will apply sufficient water to ensure that it isn’t quick. On the other hand, given the general lack of rain (AccuWeather forecasts only modest rainfall before the meeting), it would seem odds against it being soft. I’ll be watching closely the times of the Fox Hunters and Topham Chases over the GN course on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting.
- I caution every year that the model is due a blank and that caution is double-underlined this year since, from the model’s perspective, it’s a particularly competitive GN.
Of the current top 40 entries, if the going is Good or thereabouts, the model rates 5 horses as having a winning stat-score and a further 7 to be within the “margin of error” (i.e. a score consistent with finishing within 10~20 lengths of the winner and 1 of these [Planet Of Sound] has stats consistent with being 4~10 lengths away). By comparison, back-testing the current model, the highest number of horses with a winning score in a recent Good ground GN was in 2008 when 4 had winning stats and another 2 were within the “margin of error” (33 lengths actually covered the first 6 in the race).
The picture’s similar on Good-to-Soft so that on Good or GS we have roughly twice as many “in the ballpark” statistically as in previous years.
By contrast, on Soft or Heavy the confidence level is higher - there are just 4 horses which it rates as potential winners and 2 within the “margin of error”. I’m practising my rain dance, much to my dog’s and the neighbours’ amusement.
All of that said, the model's served me well in good and softer ground GNs and, as usual, I'll be putting my money where my slide-rule is.
OK, enough guff, where’s the beef?
Coming right up……
NB. Be aware that one or more of these could be scratched though all are thought likely runners if they're fit and the ground is suitable (Non-Runner-No-Bet & 5-places already offered by Bet365, albeit at lower than best prices available)
Selections (in stat-score order):
GOOD GROUND (Anything better than Good-To-Soft)
1 Synchronised
2 Sunnyhillboy
3 West End Rocker
4 Burton Port & Shakalakaboomboom
Strong Place Potential: Planet Of Sound (if weights don’t rise)
Big runs but no cigar (“margin of error”) [in card order]: Junior, According To Pete, Cappa Bleu, Mon Mome (would need cut), Killyglen, Becauseicouldntsee
GOOD-TO-SOFT & SOFTER
1 Synchronised
2 Giles Cross
3 Le Beau Bai
4 West End Rocker
5 Burton Port (GS only ["margin of error" on Soft~Hvy]) & Shakalakaboomboom (GS only)
Strong Place Potential: Sunnyhillboy (GS only)
Big runs but no cigar (“margin of error”) [in card order]: Neptune Collonges, Planet Of Sound (GS only), According To Pete (GS only), Cappa Bleu (GS only), Mon Mome (GS only), Killyglen (GS only)
Comments on Selections coming………
By way of explanation:
- SYNCHRONISED
Age 9, weight 11.10
Ground for Winning Chance: Any, but the softer the better
Best-price booky: 12/1
Betfair win: 16.5
You have to be insane to identify a NAP in the GN (and I’m not quite that nutty……..quiet Henry). However, if I were ever to take leave of my senses and give a NAP, it would be Synchronised this year, despite the fact that, as top-weight and as this season’s Gold Cup winner, he would blow two major stats away if he were to win.
On least-favoured Good ground, his GC win gives him the highest GN stat-score (joint with ’97 winner Lord Gyllene and ’03 winner Monty’s Pass) since Rough Quest set the 2nd-fastest GN winning time in 1996 carrying 10.07.
On Soft ground, because of his exceptional stamina credentials, despite his 11.10 burden, he has the highest stat-score of any runner since 1988 - previous highest was Earth Summit who carried 10.05 in the mud to win the 1998 GN.
• Won or placed in 78% of all chases. Of the last 22 GN winners, only Hedgehunter (82%) and Lord Gyllene (80%) had a higher rate.
• Strike Rate of 71% (wins and up to 4L of winner) in chases at 3m+. Ballabriggs is the only GN winner since 1988 to match that rate, though he’d never raced beyond 3.25m. Beyond 3.25m, SYNC’s Strike Rate is 80%.
• Won 2010 Welsh National on Heavy with 11.06 (since 1976 only 2 WN winners carried more weight). There is a strong correlation between the Welsh and Aintree Nationals. Since 1988, horses that previously won or were placed in the front 4 in the WN account for 8 GN victories (Rhyme ‘N’ Reason, Party Politics, Miinnehoma, Earth Summit, Bindaree, Hedgehunter, Silver Birch and Mon Mome) and another 6 GN first 3 placings.
• Dual Grade 1 winner (Lexus and GC) this season, both on decent ground. It is 78 years since Golden Miller achieved the only same-season GC-GN double but he’s the first to attempt it since 1995 and only the 5th since 1988. Most notable of those:
o Garrison Savannah was a 5-length 2nd with 11.01 in the 1991 GN and was leading 100 yards from the line
o Master Oats was a mudlark that had won the GC on Soft and was a valliant 15-length 7th with 11.10 on Good ground (verging on GF) in the 1995 GN
Aside from GC winners, strong performances in it have often preceded wins or near-misses in the GN a few weeks later: Miinnehoma (won 1994 GN), Rough Quest (won 1996), Suny Bay (2nd in 1998), What’s Up Boys (2nd in 2002), Royal Auclair (2nd in 2005) and Hedgehunter (2nd in 2006).
The “Golden Miller”-stat looks like one waiting to be bust and SYNC has one other factor is his favour – a 4 week break between Cheltenham and Aintree, at least a week longer than any of those above.
• Yet to encounter the GN fences but has no F or UR in 9 chases (one F at the last in a hurdle 3 years ago). The only PU of his career came in the Irish National a year ago when AP rode another McManus horse and SYNC was never in the race. There is no stat for jockeys in my model but there can be no doubt that SYNC must have AP on board to run his race.
• A 9 year old, 4 runs in the season and 29 days since last run are fully consistent with a GN winner’s stats.
• What isn’t consistent with recent GN winners, as we know, is the weight he’ll carry (11.10) because none has carried more than 11.08 since Red Rum carried 12.00 in 1974. The model applies a penalty for this burden but the reason it’s not a de facto “red-line” is that there have been 5 GN near-misses with 11.10+ since 1988:
o The Thinker - 3rd (7.5L) with 11.10 in 1989 (Heavy)
o Suny Bay - 2nd (11L) with 12.00 in 1998 (Heavy)
o Royal Auclair - 2nd (14L) with 11.10 in 2005 (Good / GS)
o Hedgehunter - 2nd (6L) with 11.12 in 2006 (GS / Soft)
o Don’t Push It - 3rd (14L) with 11.10 in 2011 (Good)
There are many variables that could undo Synchronised: he may not take to the fences, he may not be fully over his GC exertions, McCoy may not be available to ride and he could be vulnerable to traffic problems if he drops to mid-division in a quick ground GN. But his GN stats are so strong that, given the absence of misfortune, the model suggests they more than compensate for the burden of being top-weight.
Others to follow…..
- SUNNYHILLBOY
Age 9, weight 10.05
Ground for Winning Chance: Good & easy side of Good
Best-price booky: 16/1
Betfair win: 19
Another Jonjo-JP entry whose performance at Cheltenham gave his GN stats a significant boost though, unlike his stablemate, he would prefer Good ground. If he gets it the model indicates that he is 2nd only to SYNC in terms of winning profile. A Green & Gold reverse forecast?
• Though SHB has only 1 win in 3 chases at 3m+, he was an unlucky 3rd (6L) in the 2011 Irish National on Good (kept on well after being almost brought down 4 out).
• Prior to that, he’d shown ability around 2.5m, notably when 2nd in a fast-run Byrne Group Chase at the 2010 Festival.
• Victory in the 3.25m Kim Muir Chase at this year’s Cheltenham Festival carrying 11.11 is most significant. Ballabriggs won the KM with 11.12 (a year before his 2011 GN victory with 11.00), clocking a similar time to SHB on similar ground but tying up at the line. It is also the race that Junior won very impressively last year with 11.06. Junior is due to carry 11.02 in the GN, SHB is due to carry 10.05 and is 10lbs “well-in” off his new handicap mark. Moreover, the way he finished up the hill at Cheltenham, surging past Becauseicouldntsee (who was not stopping), suggests that his advantage should be even greater over a longer trip.
• Stamina in his pedigree. By Old Vic, one of the leading sires of staying chasers of recent times (incl. 2008 GN winner Comply Or Die and 2010 winner and runner-up Don’t Push It and Black Apalachi) his dam was a half-sister to the splendid Brown Windsor (4th in the 1990 GN, 2nd in the 1989 Hennessy and winner of the 1989 Whitbread Gold Cup (3m5f, now the Bet365 Gold Cup).
• 50% Win & Place ratio in 12 chases and 1 F and 1 PU in 21 races over obstacles is unremarkable but OK as regards GN stats.
• So too is 4 runs in the season and 30 days since last.
• Yet to experience the GN fences and the biggest risks for SHB may be not handling them (not a big horse) or misfortune in running (though ridden more handily in the KM, he’s usually held up and could be vulnerable to traffic problems). Like his stablemate, if he is still standing and within striking distance 2 out, he is going to take some stopping.
- WEST END ROCKER
Age 10, weight 10.12
Ground for Winning Chance: Any, preferably neither extreme
Best-price booky: 20/1
Betfair win: 20
• Respectable 50% Win & Place Ratio in 14 chases
• WER was quietly fancied for last year’s GN but was brought down at first Bechers. Proved he handles the fences when winning the Becher Chase (3.25m and finishing strongly) in December on Heavy, though the time and jockey comments indicate that the going was better than the official description. In the last 8 GNs, Becher Chase winners have accounted for 2 GN wins (Amberleigh House in 2004 & Silver Birch in 2007 – both had won the Becher on Soft) two 2nds and one 3rd.
• Won the Grade 3 Totesport Classic (formerly the Warwick National) over 3m5f in 2011, also on Heavy but he has handled better ground, including against some decent opposition. In fact, a poor run over 3.5m in the mud in the 2011 Grand National Trial suggests that the very holding ground typical of “Haydock Heavy” isn’t to his liking (as John Francome often says, there’s different types of Heavy) and that he’d prefer neither extreme of going (quick or very testing).
• No F or UR in 20 hurdles and chases.
• 2 runs this season is fine but he missed his prep (quick ground) and so it is 133 days since his last (his Becher Chase win). This could be considered a stat-buster since all GN winners since 1988 had their last run less than 50 days before. However, GN near-misses tell a different story – Mely Moss was touched off by Papillon in 2000 despite having his first run for 345 days and, notably, Clan Royal was 2nd (5L) in 2004 (should have won), his last race being victory in the Becher Chase 132 days before.
• Jockey is a funky-one. WER is Alan King’s only GN runner and Choc Thornton is the yard’s first jockey. He’s ridden WER in 12 of his 20 races and is yet to win on him (though he’s come within 3 lengths of doing so 4 times). Wayne Hutchinson is 2nd jockey and has ridden him 5 times, winning 4. No “jockey-stat” so model is indifferent but from a personal perspective, while of course I wouldn’t wish injury on anyone, I’ll settle for flu.
More coming…….
- BURTON PORT
Age 8, weight 11.07
Ground for Winning Chance: Good and Good-to-Soft
Best-price booky: 20/1
Betfair win: 36
A win by BP would not only be a stat-buster in terms of the weight but would be a remarkable feat of training. BP suffered tendon damage after his 2nd in the 2010 Hennessy and has run only twice since a 457 day break. But then nothing should surprise if it comes from the yard of the recently-crowned King of Cheltenham, Nicky Henderson.
• Won or placed in 89% of all chases to date (tops all GN winners since 1988 and all other runners this year). In fact, until his GC 4th, he hadn’t been out of the paying places in 16 races under rules, winning 7.
• 75% Strike Rate (wins and <4L) in 3m+ chases (tops all GN winners since 1988 & 2nd best in the field).
• Close 2nd (1.25L) in the 2010 Hennessy. Strong correlation between GN and Hennessy: since 1988, 4 GN wins (Mr Frisk, Party Politics, Rough Quest and Comply Or Die) and 10 GN places by horses that had won or been placed in the Hennessy.
• 2 fine runs since return from injury and since GN weights announced: good 2nd to Long Run in a Grade 2 (handicap raised afterwards, making him 8lbs “well-in” in the GN) and a battling 4th (8L) in the GC (GC-GN same-season correlation noted above). Unusual, and a meaningful positive, for a GN runner to have posted 2 strong performances in 3m+ Class 1 chases (or equiv.) in the post-weights period (Rough Quest did so before his 1996 win as did 8y-o Snowy Morning prior to his 5.5-length 3rd in the 2008 GN).
• BP’s also an 8 year-old. Only 2 GN winners since 1988 were aged 8 (both won on quick ground), none since Bindaree in 2002, but plenty placed since then. However they have an appreciably worse GN record on Soft and so, though he’s won minor races on Soft and Heavy, the model penalises him on it because of his age.
• Yet to race at 3.5m+ but no sign of stopping in either Hennessy or GC. Ballabriggs and Monty’s Pass were untested at 3.5m+ prior to GN victories, though again both were on Good ground.
• 2 appearances this season, 29 days since last are good GN stats.
• Yet to encounter the GN fences but no F or UR in 15 hurdles and chases under rules.
• Weight of 11.07 would make him a stat-buster but big-weight GN near-misses noted above and his other stats more than compensate to give him a winning-score providing it’s not Soft.
- SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
Age 8, weight 10.12
Best-price booky: 25/1
Betfair win: 30
Ground for Winning Chance: Good and Good-to-Soft
May or may not be Geraghty’s choice of ride but it wouldn’t be the first time in recent years that a yard’s lesser string has come up trumps in the GN - Carl Lllewellyn chose Beau (UR) over Bindaree (winner in 2002) and Royal Athlete (winner in 1995) was, at best, the 4th string of Jenny Pitman’s 6 runners.
• Experience of the GN fences a year ago – 7th (26L) over an inadequate 2.75m in the fastest-run Topham since the distance was shortened in 2001. He was in touch until late when one-paced but jumped well.
• Consistency in 3m+ chases is a key strength (like his stablemate, albeit in lesser company) with a 100% Strike Rate (wins & <4L), topping all GN winners since 1988 and the best in the field.
• Best runs have come this season with a win over 3.25m in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham on Good, finishing strongly up the hill, followed by a close 2nd to Calgary Bay in a strong-pace Great Yorkshire Chase in January.
• Yet to race at 3.5m+ but has run like he would relish further and his pedigree suggests stamina. He is by Anshan which, despite being a miler, sired some decent staying chasers (including McKelvey, close 2nd in the 2007 GN) and his dam-sire is Supreme Leader – many good staying chasers among his progeny, including Supreme Glory (2nd 2003 GN) and What’s Up Boys (2nd 2002 GN).
• Again like his stablemate, he is an 8 y-o so the same negative about Soft ground applies, particularly as he is yet to run over fences on softer than GS.
• No F or UR in 9 chases and 3 hurdles
• 3 runs this season, 34 days since last is fine
Final instalment coming…..
On to the soft-ground lovers.
- GILES CROSS - Needs 6 to come out [should do] to get a run but likely only to do so if Good-to-Soft or softer
Age 10, weight 10.01
Ground for Winning Chance: Good-to-Soft or Softer, preferably not testing
Best-price booky: 25/1
Betfair win: 30
• 2nd (2.75L) in the 2010 Welsh National (3.75m) on Soft (strong WN-GN correlation noted above), behind Synchronised (GC receiving 18lbs) but leading all the way (as customary for him) until 2 out. Extrapolating from relative weights is very dangerous, particularly in long distance chases and with an extra 6f to run, but he will receive 23lbs from SYNC at Aintree.
• 2nd (7L) in the 2011 Welsh National, having set an unforgiving pace with Le Beau Bai on Heavy before being outstayed by him (giving LBB 5lbs). Of note, Cappa Bleu ran well in that Welsh National to finish 3rd with 11.03.
• Weights and placings with LBB were reversed in the Grade 3 Grand National Trial at Haydock in February, GC receiving 2lbs from LBB (as he will in the GN) and beating him by 11-lengths over the 3.5m trip on Heavy. Racing from the front but at a more measured pace than at Chepstow he had enough in the tank also to hold off by a neck a fine effort from Neptune Collonges. On his revised mark after this win, GC is 6lbs “well-in” in the GN.
• 75% Win & Place ratio in 12 chases is 4th best in the field and bettered by only 3 GN winners since 1988.
• Yet to face the GN fences but he has only 1 F in 16 races under rules, more than 2 years ago.
• 3 runs in the season, the last 56 days prior is OK though a slightly extended break.
• Carries only 10.01. Hasn’t been a GN runner with less than 10.02 since 2004, when Lord Atterbury was a 5-length 3rd carrying 10.01. Already won off his GN handicap mark of 138 (Numbersixvalverde in 2007 and Silver Birch in 2008 won the GN off a mark of 138).
• A front-runner if the ground permits, he should avoid trouble but the big questionmark over GC is what ground would best suit him. Given speed limitation, he won’t run unless it is Good-to-Soft or softer but there is a doubt over his stamina at 4m+ on testing ground, revealed in the 2011 Eider on desperate ground and again in the last Welsh National. While all of his chase wins have come on Soft or Heavy, at an extreme trip, so long as the ground is soft enough to accommodate his front-running style, Good-to-Soft~Soft would seem preferable.
- LE BEAU BAI – Needs 2 to come out [highly probable] though may not run unless Soft
Age 9, weight 10.03
Ground for Winning Chance: At least Good-to-Soft but Heavy provides best chance
Best-price booky: 40/1
Betfair win: 110
A true mudlark, it simply can’t be deep or far enough for LBB but if it were to come up Soft~Heavy, he would have a serious chance. Even on proper GS, if he takes to the fences, he could be a contender over 4.5m.
• 3rd (8L) in the 2009 Welsh National on Heavy, he won it in 2011 (strong WN-GN correlation noted above) with 10.01, also on Heavy. He’ll carry 10.03 in the GN (OR140), a 9lb rise in his handicap mark from Chepstow, but he has won off OR139 over fences.
• Respectable 59% Win & Place Ratio in all chases, including in 3 consecutive GN Trials at Haydock (all on Heavy) and 3rd (9.5L) behind West End Rocker in the Grade 3 Totesport Classic over 3m5f on Heavy in 2011 (receiving 1lb), he’ll be getting 9lbs from WER in the GN.
• No F or UR in 16 hurdles and 17 chases (all 3m+) is certainly noteworthy but he is yet to face the GN fences.
• 6 runs in the season, the last being 56 days prior are all OK GN stats, albeit a slightly longer than ideal break.
OK folks, that’s it. For those that have stayed awake, congratulations. You clearly have stamina worthy of Aintree itself.
Best of luck, whichever horses you back. Above all, let’s hope all horses and jocks come back safe and sound.
I’m off for a beer and a kip.
Oh well, come on Cappa Bleu!
;-)
Seabass
Apt Approach
Cappa Bleu
Organisedconfusion
Psycho
The Midnight Club
Giles Cross
Arbor Supreme
Quiscover Fontaine
Vic Venturi
Le Beau Bai
Midnight Haze
also have entries for the Irish National, to be run 5 days before Aintree on Easter Monday
Reminds me of the mare Ebony Jane who in 1994 was 3rd in the Irish Nat on Soft and then, amazingly, 5 days later, led them round on Heavy ground at Aintree and was still leading 3 out before tiring and finishing 4th to Miinnehoma. Wotta dame.