Definitely not, especially if you've got him e/w. His 3rd in the Irish Hennessy in Feb was just ahead of the winner of the Betfred Bowl today. He's a good horse having a good season and 10.08's a very manageable weight. His stats for the GN aren't bad, just not quite strong enough so far as my model assesses them - but it isn't a crystal ball and its well due a blank. Good luck.
BTW, as I mentioned previously, on Good ground or thereabouts there is a larger than usual number of horses that my model rates as having the potential to finish within 20L of the winner (as such they're in the "margin of error"). Normally, there'd just be a couple but, in addition to Planet Of Sound and Becauseicouldntsee (which have the stats to go closer still), there are 5 in the 10-20L category who, while not winning candidates, could run well for a very long way or, if it's not quick ground, could stay-on into place money (according to my model). They are, in racecard order:
Hi peanuts, Thanks for the fantastic insight into the National, definitely given me some ideas of who to back! With this being the first year reading about your model, and without reading back through all 7 pages, I was going to ask whats the success rate of the model?
Arbor Supreme and Organised Confusion... the sweepstake has a lot to answer for. Picks being finalised tonight. Peanuts as insightful and learned as ever!
Ballabriggs for me. The National usually has some sort of story and this is the first one since the death of Ginger McCain, so how fitting for his son to saddle the winner for the second year running.
Hello Bud , According to Pete , the state of play is ( bit of midnight haze ) , I did the treacle ( Viking Blond ) in compliance because i could nt see
Put it like this, I paid for my two tier decking two years ago and a holiday n Turkey last year by foing this model. Hopefully th is year New York will get wiped off the mastercard statement
Hi peanuts, Thanks for the fantastic insight into the National, definitely given me some ideas of who to back! With this being the first year reading about your model, and without reading back through all 7 pages, I was going to ask whats the success rate of the model?
Cheers Chief, Record to date over the 6 years I’ve been using this model in its annual re-incarnations (it gets tweaked when it misses a winner or close placed horse):
2006: winner (Numbersixvalverde) & 4th (Nil Desperandum) from 6 selections 2007: 2nd (McKelvey) from 3 selections 2008: winner (Comply Or Die), 2nd (King Johns Castle) & 4th (Slim Pickings) from 5 selections 2009: winner (Mon Mome) from 6 selections 2010: winner (Don’t Push It), 4th (Big Fella Thanks), 5th (Hello Bud), 6th (Snowy Morning) from 6 selections 2011: 2nd (Oscar Time) and 4th (State Of Play) from 6 selections
First posted recommendations here in 2007. Backing selections each-way or Betfair win and place on a weighted basis, it’s been profitable for me every year to date. I do caution every year there will be a blank sometime - could easily be this year as it is a very competitive National.
Arbor Supreme and Organised Confusion... the sweepstake has a lot to answer for. Picks being finalised tonight. Peanuts as insightful and learned as ever!
Most kind ISLS....as ever, the proof of the pudding....! I'd check the time of the Topham to see if this rain, on top of last night's watering, slows the ground. Giles Cross could come back into the picture if it got to proper GS.
Just one question - as you tweak it after it misses winner or close placed horse, is that throwing up more horses that fall within the 'should bet on' paramaters each year?
Hi peanuts, Thanks for the fantastic insight into the National, definitely given me some ideas of who to back! With this being the first year reading about your model, and without reading back through all 7 pages, I was going to ask whats the success rate of the model?
Cheers Chief, Record to date over the 6 years I’ve been using this model in its annual re-incarnations (it gets tweaked when it misses a winner or close placed horse):
2006: winner (Numbersixvalverde) & 4th (Nil Desperandum) from 6 selections 2007: 2nd (McKelvey) from 3 selections 2008: winner (Comply Or Die), 2nd (King Johns Castle) & 4th (Slim Pickings) from 5 selections 2009: winner (Mon Mome) from 6 selections 2010: winner (Don’t Push It), 4th (Big Fella Thanks), 5th (Hello Bud), 6th (Snowy Morning) from 6 selections 2011: 2nd (Oscar Time) and 4th (State Of Play) from 6 selections
First posted recommendations here in 2007. Backing selections each-way or Betfair win and place on a weighted basis, it’s been profitable for me every year to date. I do caution every year there will be a blank sometime - could easily be this year as it is a very competitive National.
Just one question - as you tweak it after it misses winner or close placed horse, is that throwing up more horses that fall within the 'should bet on' paramaters each year?
Don't think it has any impact on the number of next year's fancies. I also look closely at selections that did nothing to see if there's any negatives in their stats that were missed (obviously sometimes horses just get unlucky). Then I back-test the tweaks against the winners and <20L placed horses in all GNs from 1988 and the entire fields of the 2008~2011 GNs to verify the results......You should see the size of my spreadsheet! If anything I think that the tweakings tend to make it a stiffer test to achieve a winning score.
It may be that as the quality of entries has improved the number of horses "in the ballpark" has increased though. While there is an absolute stat-score that I look for for a wining candidate, in reality it's a race among the 40 that line up on the day of course. If there were say 8 horses that had an absolute winning score, I'd have to select only the best scores as winning candidates. Thankfully, this year there are left in only 4 at or above the absolute winning mark on the likely Easy-side of Good ground (if it somehow came up Good-to-Soft or worse, Giles Cross would re-enter the calcs - don't want to think about that just yet, let's see the time of the Topham). However there are quite a few more than usual (7 rather than typically a couple) with decent (though not winning) scores, consistent historically with finishing 4~20L behind the winner - hence there is probably more risk of a failure this year. I'll be backing the top 6 selections as usual though of course and, because the average odds are unfortunately a bit shorter than usual this year, I'll be laying a few that the model doesn't like but are fancied in the market to enhance the potential return.
I make time of Topham 5m26s - suggests going on National Course is still basically Good maybe a touch of GS - not soft enough for Giles Cross, but weather's obviously changeable.
Hi peanuts, Thanks for the fantastic insight into the National, definitely given me some ideas of who to back! With this being the first year reading about your model, and without reading back through all 7 pages, I was going to ask whats the success rate of the model?
Cheers Chief, Record to date over the 6 years I’ve been using this model in its annual re-incarnations (it gets tweaked when it misses a winner or close placed horse):
2006: winner (Numbersixvalverde) & 4th (Nil Desperandum) from 6 selections 2007: 2nd (McKelvey) from 3 selections 2008: winner (Comply Or Die), 2nd (King Johns Castle) & 4th (Slim Pickings) from 5 selections 2009: winner (Mon Mome) from 6 selections 2010: winner (Don’t Push It), 4th (Big Fella Thanks), 5th (Hello Bud), 6th (Snowy Morning) from 6 selections 2011: 2nd (Oscar Time) and 4th (State Of Play) from 6 selections
First posted recommendations here in 2007. Backing selections each-way or Betfair win and place on a weighted basis, it’s been profitable for me every year to date. I do caution every year there will be a blank sometime - could easily be this year as it is a very competitive National.
Very impressive! Lets hope tomorrow isn't the time for a blank, I could do with a winner!
I love horse racing and go regulary but now and again certian things just make me wonder.
Always Waining hacked up again in the Topham Chase, 3rd year running. Yet inbetween and before these 3 victories he's never been placed in over 20 other races. It does make you think if some horses really are always riden to win or held back to avoid the eye of the handicaper and the bookies.
I love horse racing and go regulary but now and again certian things just make me wonder.
Always Waining hacked up again in the Topham Chase, 3rd year running. Yet inbetween and before these 3 victories he's never been placed in over 20 other races. It does make you think if some horses really are always riden to win or held back to avoid the eye of the handicaper and the bookies.
are you suggesting that racing is/can be 'bent'? ...... whatever next !!
Know you can't rely on tips for the GN... But just had Giles Cross from someone who knows a lot of trainers. Gonna have to back it, but gone for shaka and west end so far
He did say it could do with a touch of rain over night though
He isn't really the mudlark that some say he is - he didn't get home over 4 miles on bottomless ground in the Eider last year. But proper Good-to-Soft ~ Soft would give him a great chance. He needs it slow enough that he can happily front run as he usually does. Jumps well so should handle the fences and only carries 10.01 - it's just will the ground have enough juice in it? It was the same issue for Silver By Nature last year (he won the same race at Haydock as Giles Cross did, the 3.5m Grand National Trial - both won it on Heavy). Couldn't handle the pace set by Ballabriggs - mind you it was some pace.
Tell you what. 2 winners for Malcolm Jefferson at the Festival (he was in tears there) both win at Aintree (he's beaming now). If you are backing According To Pete tomorrow you've got to be happy. It's 52 years since the GN winner came from Yorkshire [that's not a relevant stat for my model, in case you were wondering]. Could it happen?
Comments
Good luck.
Neptune Collonges
Junior
Cappa Bleu
Mon Mome
Killyglen
Have to confess I've had a nibble of Mon Mome on the Betfair place market, for old times sake.
Kiss of death as never win, so dont back him.
Put it like this, I paid for my two tier decking two years ago and a holiday n Turkey last year by foing this model. Hopefully th is year New York will get wiped off the mastercard statement
Record to date over the 6 years I’ve been using this model in its annual re-incarnations (it gets tweaked when it misses a winner or close placed horse):
2006: winner (Numbersixvalverde) & 4th (Nil Desperandum) from 6 selections
2007: 2nd (McKelvey) from 3 selections
2008: winner (Comply Or Die), 2nd (King Johns Castle) & 4th (Slim Pickings) from 5 selections
2009: winner (Mon Mome) from 6 selections
2010: winner (Don’t Push It), 4th (Big Fella Thanks), 5th (Hello Bud), 6th (Snowy Morning) from 6 selections
2011: 2nd (Oscar Time) and 4th (State Of Play) from 6 selections
First posted recommendations here in 2007. Backing selections each-way or Betfair win and place on a weighted basis, it’s been profitable for me every year to date.
I do caution every year there will be a blank sometime - could easily be this year as it is a very competitive National.
I'd check the time of the Topham to see if this rain, on top of last night's watering, slows the ground. Giles Cross could come back into the picture if it got to proper GS.
Just one question - as you tweak it after it misses winner or close placed horse, is that throwing up more horses that fall within the 'should bet on' paramaters each year?
It may be that as the quality of entries has improved the number of horses "in the ballpark" has increased though.
While there is an absolute stat-score that I look for for a wining candidate, in reality it's a race among the 40 that line up on the day of course. If there were say 8 horses that had an absolute winning score, I'd have to select only the best scores as winning candidates. Thankfully, this year there are left in only 4 at or above the absolute winning mark on the likely Easy-side of Good ground (if it somehow came up Good-to-Soft or worse, Giles Cross would re-enter the calcs - don't want to think about that just yet, let's see the time of the Topham). However there are quite a few more than usual (7 rather than typically a couple) with decent (though not winning) scores, consistent historically with finishing 4~20L behind the winner - hence there is probably more risk of a failure this year. I'll be backing the top 6 selections as usual though of course and, because the average odds are unfortunately a bit shorter than usual this year, I'll be laying a few that the model doesn't like but are fancied in the market to enhance the potential return.
Weird Al (e/w)
Always Waining hacked up again in the Topham Chase, 3rd year running. Yet inbetween and before these 3 victories he's never been placed in over 20 other races. It does make you think if some horses really are always riden to win or held back to avoid the eye of the handicaper and the bookies.