Ok, what's up with Burton Port? Out to 48 on Betfair........not seriously thinking of the Bet365 Bowl are they?
I rather fear they might be :-(
Oh well, come on Cappa Bleu!
My turn for possible disappointment AA. Sunnyhillboy's also been big drifter on Betfair. No news that I can track down but there's speculation that the Kim Muir took a lot of of him.
I did Sunnyhill boy 25/1 with b365 today NRNB - Cheers PM!
Better news:
From Sportinglife.com an hour ago:
"SUNNY STILL ON NATIONAL TRAIL
Frank Berry expects Sunnyhillboy to line up in the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on Saturday week.
The Cheltenham Festival winner has proved easy to back in recent days and rumours were rife he would miss the race.
Last month's Kim Muir winner is a best priced 16-1 for the world's most famous steeplechase with the industry bookmakers, but he is available at double those odds on the betting exchanges.
A decision on whether his Cheltenham Gold Cup-winning stablemate Synchronised will line up is expected to be made by this weekend.
Berry, racing manager to owner JP McManus, said: "As far as I know Sunnyhillboy is in good form and on target to run at Aintree.
"Jonjo (O'Neill) is very happy with him, as he is with Synchronised, who seems to have come out of the Gold Cup well. He might have another bit of work and we'll make a final decision on him by the weekend." "
Going on the National course is good (good-to-soft places) as at Monday evening. They're watering as they consider necessary, not surprisingly. Forecast from AccuWeather is for 18mm of rain from now to Thurs, then dry, then rain from Tuesday next week and through the meeting totalling 19mm prior to race day with a further 3mm sometime on the big day. Easy side of good (pretty much as now) looks the likliest going.
Hot off the press, by Jim McGrath in the Telegraph:
"Synchronised, the J P McManus-owned Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, worked in encouraging style at Jackdaws Castle on Tuesday morning, tipping the balance in favour of a run in the John Smith’s Grand National, at Aintree, on April 14. No final decision has been taken, but trainer Jonjo O’Neill, who issued an upbeat report of the gallop, is set to discuss the matter with McManus, and there is every likelihood this rapidly-improving chaser will take his chance...Meanwhile, O’Neill was at a loss to explain why his Festival winner Sunnyhill Boy has been a dramatic drifter in exchange betting on the National, saying: “He’s well in himself.” "
Earlier, Victor Dartnall announced his intention to scratch Giles Cross from the Irish National and head for Aintree in the belief that the ground will be more favourable.
Henderson confirms Betfred Bowl is intended race for Burton Port at Aintree. Will be left in the GN at next week's confirmation stage but will only run if Ballabriggs is unable to. That puts Geraghty on Shakalakaboomboom presumably.
Henderson confirms Betfred Bowl is intended race for Burton Port at Aintree. Will be left in the GN at next week's confirmation stage but will only run if Ballabriggs is unable to. That puts Geraghty on Shakalakaboomboom presumably.
:-(
Even worse Paul Moloney talks up the chances of Cappa Bleu on front page of RP!
Going on the GN course as at 3.15pm Thursday unchanged at Good (Good-to-Soft places). Liverpool missed the worst of the recent bad weather up North. Forecast is for only moderate showers off and on through to Sat week. Still looks likely to be easy side of good. More positives from Jonjo & now AP about Synchronised taking his chance. “This is his game, his distance – and I might never have him in this form again,” Jonjo told The Times. “The four-week gap after Cheltenham is a big advantage and he came out of it buzzing. Logically, he should run." AP's reported as saying: “Jonjo thinks that Synchronised in the last three weeks and even more so from the Gold Cup that he’s really coming to himself more than he ever was. If that was the case it would be very difficult not to run him.” Decision rests with JPMcManus.
Ruby rides On His Own. Katie Walsh to ride Seabass. Meanwhile, Synchronised's inceasingly likely participation caused his Betfair price to fall to below 10 and Sunnyhillboy's to rise to 30+ (16/1 best-priced booky NRNB). Neither are 100% definite runners but no news to suggest SHB won't be lining up. Seems that punters have forgotten that SHB's best runs have been without AP. Unlike SYNC, he doesn't need the Champ on board to have a winning chance. Going remains Good (GS places) as at Saturday 10.30am.
Ruby rides On His Own. Katie Walsh to ride Seabass. Meanwhile, Synchronised's inceasingly likely participation caused his Betfair price to fall to below 10 and Sunnyhillboy's to rise to 30+ (16/1 best-priced booky NRNB). Neither are 100% definite runners but no news to suggest SHB won't be lining up. Seems that punters have forgotten that SHB's best runs have been without AP. Unlike SYNC, he doesn't need the Champ on board to have a winning chance. Going remains Good (GS places) as at Saturday 10.30am.
On His Own 16/1 best (Boyles) and only 16 available with Betfair from a high of 75. Such is the influence of Ruby on markets.
Good news regarding my model's selections: JPMcManus' racing manager Frank Berry has confirmed both Synchronised and Sunnyhillboy are intended runners in the GN. "At the minute, the plan is for Synchronised to go. He just has to do a little bit of work during the week to make sure Jonjo's happy with him. Sunnyhillboy is in good order and he definitely goes to Aintree." Also, Wayne Hutchinson, not Choc Thronton, will be on board West End Rocker (4 wins from 5 rides on him). BlueSquare & Bet365 both 5 places & NRNB Going as at 3.15pm Sunday changed to Good. Forecast is now for 9-11mm of rain in next 24 hours, light showers rest of week. Will be timing the Foxhunters on Thursday - crudely: 5m30s = Good / 5m45s = Good-to-Soft
Only a side-show this pm but the Irish National is at 4.50.
Some notable trends. Of the last 11 winners:
11/11 - Carried 10.12 or less 9/11 - Carried 10.05 or less 10/11 - Aged 9 or younger 10/11 - Ran within the last 2 months 9/11 - Had won over at least 3m before 0/11 - Won by a Willie Mullins-trained horse 0/11 - Won by the favourite The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 19/1
No model for the Irish Nat and these are fairly low conviction bets but I'll be going with 2 that fit the trends pretty well:
Have backed Paddy Pub in his last couple of runs, both wins. Wasn't too sure about him today, however as Peanut as highlighted him, I've had an e/w bet.
Today's rain has changed the going significantly to Soft (Good-to-Soft places) on the National course as at 4.45pm Monday. West End Rocker, Giles Cross and Le Beau Bai all shortened (not surprisingly). Weather Forecast (courtesy of Aintree website) Monday: Rain from early morning, 11mm so far. Rain to ease this evening 10C, cooler overnight. Tuesday: Cloudy with possible showers, some heavy 3mm/6mm 11C Wednesday: Bright spells with possible showers 2mm/5mm 10C Thursday, Friday & Saturday: Cloudy with sunny spells, with possible shower 10C, cold overnight.
Have backed Paddy Pub in his last couple of runs, both wins. Wasn't too sure about him today, however as Peanut as highlighted him, I've had an e/w bet.
1 Lion Na Bearnai 33/1 2 Out Now 14/1 3 Alfie Sherrin 10/1 4 Paddy Pub 20/1 5 Leanne 33/1
Sorry to miss the winner GA – he ticked all the boxes other than age (10). The stats just aren't quite consistent enough in the Irish Nat to make a decent system. Nice to see a small yard win it though, as 2 years ago. Paddy done us proud, a bit one-paced but hung in there really well over the last 1/2 mile. Had him at 11 on the Betfair (4) place market which was a relief given the SP. Roll on Aintree.
A word of caution on the going description at Aintree (officially Soft on the GN course at 8.45am Tuesday, though the Turtrax map shows a reasonable amount of Good-to-Soft places). Last year, the official going at the off of the Foxhunters on the Thursday was Soft (GS places). But the time of the race (5m36.9s) suggested it was more like Good (GS places). By Friday the official going had changed to Good (GS places) but the time of the Topham (5m19.3s) suggested it had dried out further to be Good. On Saturday the official going remained Good (GS places). Yet Ballabriggs, with 11 stone, posted the 3rd fastest time ever. Even allowing for the omission of 2 fences, his time of 9m1s strongly suggests that the going was at least Good (Good-to-Firm places), the same as the official going for the 2000 GN when Papillon carried 10.12 to win in a time 8.7secs slower than Ballabriggs. Admittedly the weather during the meeting last year was sunny and warm and the forecast is for cooler and more showery conditions this time but, until we get a time for the Foxhunters on Thursday, take the prognostications of a Soft-ground GN with a pinch of salt.
My original tip of Westend Rocker down to 12/1......why o why did i not take the 20/1 at he time ;-( Roll on Saturday the best day of the year.....oh and its my 50th!!!!
should i wait further for confirmation on the ground?
Too early to predict ground conditions for Saturday and, because of the very competitive nature of this GN, this will be a crucial factor for some horses’ chances….but not all.
If you want to follow my stat-model’s selections, other than Burton Port’s defection and a shortening of prices across the board, nothing’s changed from the selections and comments I posted a few weeks ago. The winner should be one of:
Synchronised – winning chance on any ground (the softer it is the stronger the chance). Unfortunately now only 7/1 but the "AP" & "Golden Miller" factors could send him off 7/2 or 4/1 fav according to some bookies. I hate it that he’s the GN fav but I can't second guess my model.
West End Rocker – winning chance on any ground (best chance if neither quick nor testing). He's also shortened signficantly after Monday's rain (best price 12/1, slightly better on Betfair).
Sunnyhillboy – winning chance on anything better than GS, otherwise strong place potential (20/1, offered at 26 [25/1] on Betfair)
Shakalakaboomboom – winning chance on anything better than Soft (20/1, offered at 25 [24/1] on Betfair.
Giles Cross – winning chance on GS or softer (best chance if not testing) (12/1, offered at 14 [13/1] on Betfair)
Le Beau Bai – winning chance on Soft~Heavy (best chance if testing), strong place potential on GS – N.B. MAY NOT RUN IF NOT AT LEAST SOFT (40/1, offered at 60 [59/1] on Betfair)
Others with strong place potential: Planet Of Sound - if better than Soft (33/1, Betfair 50)
If you are looking for a bigger priced runner that can handle anything in the range of likely ground conditions (somewhere in between Good and Soft) and has the stats to run a big race even if not being quite good enough to win:
Neptune Collonges (33/1, Betfair 44) – could go well on any ground Mon Mome (50/1, Betfair 100) – must be neither extreme
Cappa Bleu & Killyglen are also in this list but are at much shorter prices.
The National course was described as Soft(GS in places) this morning though the Turftrax map had it 50:50 Sft/GS and a touch of Good. But it could end up being anything. It depends if they catch showers - if so they could be heavy ones - if they catch one during or immediately after the Foxhunters or the Topham (before they've repaired the ground) tomorrow or Friday pm it could really get into the ground and give us a true Soft-ground GN. If not or they're just light showers, the ground often rides quicker than the going description and we could still end up easy side of Good. Have to think it's very unlikely to be quick ground though.
Got to time the Foxhunters tomorrow to try and gauge it.
In a nutshell, despite the short price, my model rates him so highly that you must have Synchronised. If he gets round (and that's an IF for any runner of course) the model says he should win, despite being topweight. West End Rocker handles the fences and gives you flexibility on ground. If you can add another wait on the ground to decide.
Comments
From Sportinglife.com an hour ago:
"SUNNY STILL ON NATIONAL TRAIL
Frank Berry expects Sunnyhillboy to line up in the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on Saturday week.
The Cheltenham Festival winner has proved easy to back in recent days and rumours were rife he would miss the race.
Last month's Kim Muir winner is a best priced 16-1 for the world's most famous steeplechase with the industry bookmakers, but he is available at double those odds on the betting exchanges.
A decision on whether his Cheltenham Gold Cup-winning stablemate Synchronised will line up is expected to be made by this weekend.
Berry, racing manager to owner JP McManus, said: "As far as I know Sunnyhillboy is in good form and on target to run at Aintree.
"Jonjo (O'Neill) is very happy with him, as he is with Synchronised, who seems to have come out of the Gold Cup well. He might have another bit of work and we'll make a final decision on him by the weekend." "
Forecast from AccuWeather is for 18mm of rain from now to Thurs, then dry, then rain from Tuesday next week and through the meeting totalling 19mm prior to race day with a further 3mm sometime on the big day.
Easy side of good (pretty much as now) looks the likliest going.
"Synchronised, the J P McManus-owned Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, worked in encouraging style at Jackdaws Castle on Tuesday morning, tipping the balance in favour of a run in the John Smith’s Grand National, at Aintree, on April 14.
No final decision has been taken, but trainer Jonjo O’Neill, who issued an upbeat report of the gallop, is set to discuss the matter with McManus, and there is every likelihood this rapidly-improving chaser will take his chance...Meanwhile, O’Neill was at a loss to explain why his Festival winner Sunnyhill Boy has been a dramatic drifter in exchange betting on the National, saying: “He’s well in himself.” "
Earlier, Victor Dartnall announced his intention to scratch Giles Cross from the Irish National and head for Aintree in the belief that the ground will be more favourable.
That puts Geraghty on Shakalakaboomboom presumably.
Even worse Paul Moloney talks up the chances of Cappa Bleu on front page of RP!
Forecast is for only moderate showers off and on through to Sat week. Still looks likely to be easy side of good.
More positives from Jonjo & now AP about Synchronised taking his chance.
“This is his game, his distance – and I might never have him in this form again,” Jonjo told The Times.
“The four-week gap after Cheltenham is a big advantage and he came out of it buzzing. Logically, he should run."
AP's reported as saying: “Jonjo thinks that Synchronised in the last three weeks and even more so from the Gold Cup that he’s really coming to himself more than he ever was. If that was the case it would be very difficult not to run him.”
Decision rests with JPMcManus.
Meanwhile, Synchronised's inceasingly likely participation caused his Betfair price to fall to below 10 and Sunnyhillboy's to rise to 30+ (16/1 best-priced booky NRNB). Neither are 100% definite runners but no news to suggest SHB won't be lining up. Seems that punters have forgotten that SHB's best runs have been without AP. Unlike SYNC, he doesn't need the Champ on board to have a winning chance.
Going remains Good (GS places) as at Saturday 10.30am.
JPMcManus' racing manager Frank Berry has confirmed both Synchronised and Sunnyhillboy are intended runners in the GN. "At the minute, the plan is for Synchronised to go. He just has to do a little bit of work during the week to make sure Jonjo's happy with him. Sunnyhillboy is in good order and he definitely goes to Aintree."
Also, Wayne Hutchinson, not Choc Thronton, will be on board West End Rocker (4 wins from 5 rides on him).
BlueSquare & Bet365 both 5 places & NRNB
Going as at 3.15pm Sunday changed to Good. Forecast is now for 9-11mm of rain in next 24 hours, light showers rest of week. Will be timing the Foxhunters on Thursday - crudely: 5m30s = Good / 5m45s = Good-to-Soft
Some notable trends. Of the last 11 winners:
11/11 - Carried 10.12 or less
9/11 - Carried 10.05 or less
10/11 - Aged 9 or younger
10/11 - Ran within the last 2 months
9/11 - Had won over at least 3m before
0/11 - Won by a Willie Mullins-trained horse
0/11 - Won by the favourite
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 19/1
No model for the Irish Nat and these are fairly low conviction bets but I'll be going with 2 that fit the trends pretty well:
Start Me Up (18/1)
Paddy Pub (33/1)
Midnight Chase
Quel Esprit
Roberto Goldback
Apt Approach
Psycho
Pearlysteps
Prince De Beauchene
Roulez Cool
The Package
Another Palm
all taken out at the confirmation stage today
48 left in
Weather Forecast (courtesy of Aintree website)
Monday: Rain from early morning, 11mm so far. Rain to ease this evening 10C, cooler overnight.
Tuesday: Cloudy with possible showers, some heavy 3mm/6mm 11C
Wednesday: Bright spells with possible showers 2mm/5mm 10C
Thursday, Friday & Saturday: Cloudy with sunny spells, with possible shower 10C, cold overnight.
1 Lion Na Bearnai 33/1
2 Out Now 14/1
3 Alfie Sherrin 10/1
4 Paddy Pub 20/1
5 Leanne 33/1
Sorry to miss the winner GA – he ticked all the boxes other than age (10). The stats just aren't quite consistent enough in the Irish Nat to make a decent system. Nice to see a small yard win it though, as 2 years ago.
Paddy done us proud, a bit one-paced but hung in there really well over the last 1/2 mile. Had him at 11 on the Betfair (4) place market which was a relief given the SP.
Roll on Aintree.
Last year, the official going at the off of the Foxhunters on the Thursday was Soft (GS places). But the time of the race (5m36.9s) suggested it was more like Good (GS places).
By Friday the official going had changed to Good (GS places) but the time of the Topham (5m19.3s) suggested it had dried out further to be Good.
On Saturday the official going remained Good (GS places). Yet Ballabriggs, with 11 stone, posted the 3rd fastest time ever. Even allowing for the omission of 2 fences, his time of 9m1s strongly suggests that the going was at least Good (Good-to-Firm places), the same as the official going for the 2000 GN when Papillon carried 10.12 to win in a time 8.7secs slower than Ballabriggs.
Admittedly the weather during the meeting last year was sunny and warm and the forecast is for cooler and more showery conditions this time but, until we get a time for the Foxhunters on Thursday, take the prognostications of a Soft-ground GN with a pinch of salt.
Lunch Hour 12/1
Backing it alongside Chicago Grey and Treacle
If you want to follow my stat-model’s selections, other than Burton Port’s defection and a shortening of prices across the board, nothing’s changed from the selections and comments I posted a few weeks ago. The winner should be one of:
Synchronised – winning chance on any ground (the softer it is the stronger the chance). Unfortunately now only 7/1 but the "AP" & "Golden Miller" factors could send him off 7/2 or 4/1 fav according to some bookies. I hate it that he’s the GN fav but I can't second guess my model.
West End Rocker – winning chance on any ground (best chance if neither quick nor testing). He's also shortened signficantly after Monday's rain (best price 12/1, slightly better on Betfair).
Sunnyhillboy – winning chance on anything better than GS, otherwise strong place potential (20/1, offered at 26 [25/1] on Betfair)
Shakalakaboomboom – winning chance on anything better than Soft (20/1, offered at 25 [24/1] on Betfair.
Giles Cross – winning chance on GS or softer (best chance if not testing) (12/1, offered at 14 [13/1] on Betfair)
Le Beau Bai – winning chance on Soft~Heavy (best chance if testing), strong place potential on GS – N.B. MAY NOT RUN IF NOT AT LEAST SOFT (40/1, offered at 60 [59/1] on Betfair)
Others with strong place potential:
Planet Of Sound - if better than Soft (33/1, Betfair 50)
If you are looking for a bigger priced runner that can handle anything in the range of likely ground conditions (somewhere in between Good and Soft) and has the stats to run a big race even if not being quite good enough to win:
Neptune Collonges (33/1, Betfair 44) – could go well on any ground
Mon Mome (50/1, Betfair 100) – must be neither extreme
Cappa Bleu & Killyglen are also in this list but are at much shorter prices.
The National course was described as Soft(GS in places) this morning though the Turftrax map had it 50:50 Sft/GS and a touch of Good. But it could end up being anything.
It depends if they catch showers - if so they could be heavy ones - if they catch one during or immediately after the Foxhunters or the Topham (before they've repaired the ground) tomorrow or Friday pm it could really get into the ground and give us a true Soft-ground GN.
If not or they're just light showers, the ground often rides quicker than the going description and we could still end up easy side of Good. Have to think it's very unlikely to be quick ground though.
Got to time the Foxhunters tomorrow to try and gauge it.
I just dont have the dosh this year to splash about as just bought a new house. Decisions decisions!
West End Rocker handles the fences and gives you flexibility on ground.
If you can add another wait on the ground to decide.