Probably too early to have this debate, but I'm wondering if the race should be scappred or at least changed considerably. Horses are excitable beasts and undoubtedly the big crowds, the noise and the fuss and the buzz gets to them and persuades them to run too fast. The scenes at the beginning of the race were chatic with several false starts and the starter fighting to get the horses in line and pointing in the right direction.
Most Grand National horses are relatively speaking ordinary chasers, there are some decent horses in the race, but most are dour stayers, there because they can jump and last 4 and half miles and it's rare to see a Gold Cup winner compete, Arkle possibly the greatest chaser of all time (or at least one of the best) never ran in the Grand National, her owner considered it too great a risk and the race too cruel, so to see Synchronised line up was rare in itself and it's a tragedy that a horse dies, and an even bigger one when it's a horse that has won the Gold Cup only a few weeks ago. Every year out of 40 horses that start around 30 fail to finish, some fall, others are brought down, the odd one refuses and others are pulled up lame and every year there are one or two fatalities. It makes for great television, you can't fault the bravery of the jockeys or the horses, but when 75% of the field fail to finish then there's something wrong.
On the one hand they are bred and trained to race, but the casualty rate is simply too high.
So many more are bred and looked after like kings than deaths. Because it's in the national eye people kick up a fuss, it happens a lot in racing, but it's always been like that. This debate comes about every year and nothing will change.
So many more are bred and looked after like kings than deaths. Because it's in the national eye people kick up a fuss, it happens a lot in racing, but it's always been like that. This debate comes about every year and nothing will change.
I've a feeling that things will change - while it's true that horses die in both training and in races, but the GN has a very high casualty rate - as I say above every year around three quarters of the field fail to see the finishing line for one reason or another. Maybe the course should be shortened or the field be reduced in size but something has to give.
So many more are bred and looked after like kings than deaths. Because it's in the national eye people kick up a fuss, it happens a lot in racing, but it's always been like that. This debate comes about every year and nothing will change.
I've a feeling that things will change - while it's true that horses die in both training and in races, but the GN has a very high casualty rate - as I say above every year around three quarters of the field fail to see the finishing line for one reason or another. Maybe the course should be shortened or the field be reduced in size but something has to give.
For what it's worth, I think that speed is the problem. Even with juice in the ground, the time of that race was 9m5.1secs (fast of std by 4.9 secs). We have had the 6th, 3rd and 7th fastest GNs in history in the last 3 years (all faster than std) on ground officially described for all 3 races as Gd(GS). There are several factors probably at work. One may well be that, while it may seem counter-intuitive, the safety modifications have had the counterproductive effect of facilitating a quicker pace. Richard Dunwoody expressed this view yesterday and said that fatalities did not occur as frequently in previous decades as now, because the fences may be less respected now. I don't know if the statistics actually bear that out but I suspect he may have a strong point.
Whilst not a massive fan, who only occasionally dips into the odd race, I've got to say that the comments about banning racing annoy me greatly. Whilst any death, animal or human is sad, we have to remember that the horses that died were kept in top condition, better than some humans. Those that don't die and retire (around 99%) are generally kept like kings. If they were "forced to run" in the National like some commentators have suggested, they just wouldn't move or would chuck off the jockeys before stopping.
What next? Banning fishing so that no fish are harmed? Banning the eating of meat to ensure no animals are ever harmed in a way anyone can deem unnecessary?
And that's even before we talk about the thousands of jobs that the racing industry provides.
Anyway, off for another beer or 3 to celebrate the season. Thanks for the tips Peanuts, have you identified any improvements to your model for next year, or is the post-race analysis in-depth and take months to complete?
Richard Dunwoody expressed this view yesterday and said that fatalities did not occur as frequently in previous decades as now, because the fences may be less respected now. I don't know if the statistics actually bear that out but I suspect he may have a strong point.
Becher's Brook has been a notorious death trap for years and was again today.
I'm a vegetarian. Wouldn't it be interesting if next year the jockeys carried the horses around Aintree jumping 30 fences? If any jockey didn't fancy it they would probably be able to say so.
So many more are bred and looked after like kings than deaths. Because it's in the national eye people kick up a fuss, it happens a lot in racing, but it's always been like that. This debate comes about every year and nothing will change.
Things must change. The number of horses dying in the Grand National is unacceptable and I'm not a vegetarian by the way.
Cheers for thread PM. Ive just watched the race for the first time and feel gutted. I knew the result already but that was so bloody close. Anyway Ive made decent profit but so close to more. Very unlucky.
It's a difficult one, love the race, but absolutely get the fact that horses lives should not be put at so much risk, nor jockies for that matter, who I always flinch for when I see them fall off and curl up on the turf whilst other horses land over the fence behind them.
Whilst not a massive fan, who only occasionally dips into the odd race, I've got to say that the comments about banning racing annoy me greatly. Whilst any death, animal or human is sad, we have to remember that the horses that died were kept in top condition, better than some humans. Those that don't die and retire (around 99%) are generally kept like kings. If they were "forced to run" in the National like some commentators have suggested, they just wouldn't move or would chuck off the jockeys before stopping.
What next? Banning fishing so that no fish are harmed? Banning the eating of meat to ensure no animals are ever harmed in a way anyone can deem unnecessary?
And that's even before we talk about the thousands of jobs that the racing industry provides.
Anyway, off for another beer or 3 to celebrate the season. Thanks for the tips Peanuts, have you identified any improvements to your model for next year, or is the post-race analysis in-depth and take months to complete?
Absolutely. The fact is that these magnificent animals (including the many that live out well-cared for retirements with second careers of one form or another) simply would not exist at all if it were not for horseracing. Most owners are not heartless bastards, much less greedy ones - 99% of jump-racing owners know that they will never be ahead financially. John Hales, owner of the winner today, was distraught when he lost One Man on the Mildmay course at Aintree 14 years ago, just weeks after he won the Queen Mother Champion Chase - one of the most thrilling races seen at the Festival - and you can bet that everyone associated with Synchronised and the home-bred According To Pete feels likewise.
Re the model I'll be taking a look tomorrow and will report back - it shouldn't take too long to analyse tweaks where appropriate. Although my top 6 didn't exactly fire on all cylinders, I'm confident that the model remains fundmetally valid- indeed Neptune Collonges' victory with 11.06 is another illustration that you shouldn't apply red-line eliminators. The model did rate Neptune as being in the "margin of error" and so it should be pretty readily tweakable (therefore it was me to blame for not quite getting it right for today). Obviously, barring 6 inches, Sunnyhillboy ran as predicted, as did Cappa Bleu (12L 4th), also in the margin of error, and Ballabriggs (17L) was only slightly ahead of the model's expectations. Seabass was certainly a surprise stat-wise being only 5L back and having no form at 3m+ under rules and, even more, In Compliance (15L) (0 from 5 in 3m+ chases). I'll look at them closely but it may be that In Compliance in particular will just be an "outlier" - i.e. it would be counterproductive to try to explain its performance statistically. I'll let you know how it goes. How did your pal doing the dissertation get on? In any event, congratulations to those shrewd enough to back the winner and/or any of the placed horses today.
Cheers for thread PM. Ive just watched the race for the first time and feel gutted. I knew the result already but that was so bloody close. Anyway Ive made decent profit but so close to more. Very unlucky.
Cheers GRAY9. He ran to the outside of Neptune Collonges the whole race (quite appreciably at times) so certainly covered more ground. So close.
Just wanted to say a big thank you to Peanuts. I'm neither a gambling man nor a real horse racing lover, yet this thread every year positively captivates me. And your slightly crazy obsession with this race is seeing me up the stakes i bet on this race every year !
I was going to follow all four selections. The wife spent the morning singing shakalakababy shakalakababy, so i let her have that one, and swapped for Neptunes Collonges.
So in a space of a short while, I had the one and two in the National, Brad scored and we were promoted. Amazing, utterly amazing, and eight hours on i'm still smiling like a baby (one absorbing outrageous alcohol levels).
Same time, same place next year Peanuts. I genuinely hope you get as much fun and enjoyment out of this thread as i know i and others do.
Just wanted to say a big thank you to Peanuts. I'm neither a gambling man nor a real horse racing lover, yet this thread every year positively captivates me. And your slightly crazy obsession with this race is seeing me up the stakes i bet on this race every year !
I was going to follow all four selections. The wife spent the morning singing shakalakababy shakalakababy, so i let her have that one, and swapped for Neptunes Collonges.
So in a space of a short while, I had the one and two in the National, Brad scored and we were promoted. Amazing, utterly amazing, and eight hours on i'm still smiling like a baby (one absorbing outrageous alcohol levels).
Same time, same place next year Peanuts. I genuinely hope you get as much fun and enjoyment out of this thread as i know i and others do.
Very kind AFKA but of course everyone on this board has at least one slightly crazy obsession! Every jump racing fan will have found yesterday's race very saddening but, while that is an extremely important issue (I've a few more brief comments on that subject that I'll post later), there is a unique excitement to the GN which has fascinated me, like many others, since earliest memories - in my case watching Red Alligator win in 1968. I don't think that will ever change so, the Man above willing, I'll be here same time next year (I might even post a few comments on the Addicks in the meantime now the moaners (well, all but the perennial ones) have been quietened .......for a few months).
Particularly glad you had the first two after I led you astray on Mon Mome. Very well done. Shame that Shaka couldn't quite hang in there at the end or you'd have been moving to the Directors' Box ;o)
I'm a keen racing fan, but you have taken the research into this race beyond anything or anyone i've ever known.
Cheers JT. Most kind. Bit of a drag to have my first unprofitable GN for 7 years but, though NC's win is certainly another demo that the trends can't be applied rigidly, I do think the stat-model approach is still intact, even if I mis-tweaked it last time. NC was in the margin of error group of 5 and, aside from SHB, of the top 6 selections, 3 fell (I wrongly gave Becauseicouldntsee the benefit of the doubt on his fall last time as he'd been very fresh and the Rocker's fall was obviously totally unexpected) and the other 2 ran well for a long way. 3 of the 6 were among the 8 still in contention 3 out. So I'm not going to jettison the spreadsheet just yet. I can't get my head around why Richard Johnson rode Planet Of Sound quite as aggressively as that when there was a questionmark over stamina. Being handy is one thing but he was clearly beginning to run out of gas not long after the 2nd Canal Turn (I was hoping he was just giving him a breather). Shakalakaboomboom's only an 8 year-old and will probably get the trip as he matures (maybe like when Hedgehunter's stamina ran out when falling at the last in 2004 as an 8 y-o) - 28L from the winner is certainly creditable. Depending on his weight he could be much closer next time as he certainly jumped beautifully. Enjoy the summer - a lot to look forward to.
The whole chapter regarding Synchronised at the start was a disgrace. The field of keyed up, excitable horses and wound up jockeys was kept waiting for over five minutes while the runaway was caught and brought to the start. McCoy then had the temerity to go and show the first fence to the horse, showing off and wasting even more time. Irrespective of the potential hurt feelings and monetary loss to both owners and punters, any horse which delays the start of any race for more than one minute should be scratched. This applies to both NH and Flat races. I am tired with too often having to watch frightened, sweating horses stuck in stalls whilst a reluctant nag is dragged unwillingly to the starting gate. I am sure that many jockeys and handlers use delaying tactics at the start to give their horse an unfair advantage. Perhaps the pill could be sweetened by the bookies being obliged to hand back money on bets forfeited by my proposals. The bookies make enough money anyway, and any screams for mercy and 'have pity on poor me' from them should be ignored. We all know that the racing industry is basically there to serve the interests of the men with the satchels, betting shops and online casinos.
Re the model I'll be taking a look tomorrow and will report back - it shouldn't take too long to analyse tweaks where appropriate. Although my top 6 didn't exactly fire on all cylinders, I'm confident that the model remains fundmetally valid- indeed Neptune Collonges' victory with 11.06 is another illustration that you shouldn't apply red-line eliminators. The model did rate Neptune as being in the "margin of error" and so it should be pretty readily tweakable (therefore it was me to blame for not quite getting it right for today). Obviously, barring 6 inches, Sunnyhillboy ran as predicted, as did Cappa Bleu (12L 4th), also in the margin of error, and Ballabriggs (17L) was only slightly ahead of the model's expectations. Seabass was certainly a surprise stat-wise being only 5L back and having no form at 3m+ under rules and, even more, In Compliance (15L) (0 from 5 in 3m+ chases). I'll look at them closely but it may be that In Compliance in particular will just be an "outlier" - i.e. it would be counterproductive to try to explain its performance statistically. I'll let you know how it goes. How did your pal doing the dissertation get on? In any event, congratulations to those shrewd enough to back the winner and/or any of the placed horses today.
Sorry Peanuts - I forgot to post his findings beforehand! He had much the same conclusions as you except for putting a red line through Synchronised and backing Cappa Bleu - his final four was Sunnyhillboy, Shakalakaboomboom, Cappa Bleu and West End Rocker. As it was I couldn't resist a nibble on Synchronised cos it would have really annoyed me if he had won and I hadn't. Still he made a reasonable profit through the placings (which will keep his tutor happy as they had backed his findings too) and he has plenty to write about over the next 3 weeks before he has to hand it in!
Sorry you had an unprofitable year, at least there were other things to soften the blow yesterday! It was such a shame that Shakalakaboomboom couldn't maintain the pace that you both predicted he had - plus of course that Sunnyhillboy shortened up at the last metre! Still I look forward to repeating all of the drama and anticipation next year!
Sorry Peanuts - I forgot to post his findings beforehand! He had much the same conclusions as you except for putting a red line through Synchronised and backing Cappa Bleu - his final four was Sunnyhillboy, Shakalakaboomboom, Cappa Bleu and West End Rocker. As it was I couldn't resist a nibble on Synchronised cos it would have really annoyed me if he had won and I hadn't. Still he made a reasonable profit through the placings (which will keep his tutor happy as they had backed his findings too) and he has plenty to write about over the next 3 weeks before he has to hand it in!
Sorry you had an unprofitable year, at least there were other things to soften the blow yesterday! It was such a shame that Shakalakaboomboom couldn't maintain the pace that you both predicted he had - plus of course that Sunnyhillboy shortened up at the last metre! Still I look forward to repeating all of the drama and anticipation next year!
Impressive.....and always handy to have a happy tutor. Glad that you came out ahead aswell. Sadly we'll never know whether the weight would have stopped Synchronised, which I imagine would have been the reason his system red-lined him, though the winner shows (once again) that weight isn't the absolute stopper it once was. Keen to see Shaka run again next year as a 9 y-o, he could certainly improve. I'm not bothered about my single place return except that, especially for those latching on to my selections for the first time this year, I dearly wish McLernon had been a little more vigorous in the saddle in the last 5 strides (that doesn't mean with the whip). With my approach, especially with no longer priced selections this year (which sadly reminds me of Scotsirish of course), if I miss the winner I'll need a couple of places to make a profit but at least it wasn't a blank. Aside from the win at Carlisle, I'm cheered by the fact that the stat-model approach definitely remains valid, as your pal's results demonstrate. The winner was certainly not an outlier - just my own mis-tweakings to blame for missing him this year. I'll post some specific thoughts on the stats in the next couple of days for anyone that's interested.
Comments
I want to give you a big sloppy wet kiss!
I'm a ton to the good with an e/w on Sunnyhillboy!
Thanks
Most Grand National horses are relatively speaking ordinary chasers, there are some decent horses in the race, but most are dour stayers, there because they can jump and last 4 and half miles and it's rare to see a Gold Cup winner compete, Arkle possibly the greatest chaser of all time (or at least one of the best) never ran in the Grand National, her owner considered it too great a risk and the race too cruel, so to see Synchronised line up was rare in itself and it's a tragedy that a horse dies, and an even bigger one when it's a horse that has won the Gold Cup only a few weeks ago. Every year out of 40 horses that start around 30 fail to finish, some fall, others are brought down, the odd one refuses and others are pulled up lame and every year there are one or two fatalities. It makes for great television, you can't fault the bravery of the jockeys or the horses, but when 75% of the field fail to finish then there's something wrong.
On the one hand they are bred and trained to race, but the casualty rate is simply too high.
There are several factors probably at work. One may well be that, while it may seem counter-intuitive, the safety modifications have had the counterproductive effect of facilitating a quicker pace. Richard Dunwoody expressed this view yesterday and said that fatalities did not occur as frequently in previous decades as now, because the fences may be less respected now. I don't know if the statistics actually bear that out but I suspect he may have a strong point.
What next? Banning fishing so that no fish are harmed? Banning the eating of meat to ensure no animals are ever harmed in a way anyone can deem unnecessary?
And that's even before we talk about the thousands of jobs that the racing industry provides.
Anyway, off for another beer or 3 to celebrate the season. Thanks for the tips Peanuts, have you identified any improvements to your model for next year, or is the post-race analysis in-depth and take months to complete?
Becher's Brook has been a notorious death trap for years and was again today.
Wouldn't it be interesting if next year the jockeys carried the horses around Aintree jumping 30 fences?
If any jockey didn't fancy it they would probably be able to say so.
Most owners are not heartless bastards, much less greedy ones - 99% of jump-racing owners know that they will never be ahead financially. John Hales, owner of the winner today, was distraught when he lost One Man on the Mildmay course at Aintree 14 years ago, just weeks after he won the Queen Mother Champion Chase - one of the most thrilling races seen at the Festival - and you can bet that everyone associated with Synchronised and the home-bred According To Pete feels likewise.
Re the model I'll be taking a look tomorrow and will report back - it shouldn't take too long to analyse tweaks where appropriate. Although my top 6 didn't exactly fire on all cylinders, I'm confident that the model remains fundmetally valid- indeed Neptune Collonges' victory with 11.06 is another illustration that you shouldn't apply red-line eliminators.
The model did rate Neptune as being in the "margin of error" and so it should be pretty readily tweakable (therefore it was me to blame for not quite getting it right for today). Obviously, barring 6 inches, Sunnyhillboy ran as predicted, as did Cappa Bleu (12L 4th), also in the margin of error, and Ballabriggs (17L) was only slightly ahead of the model's expectations. Seabass was certainly a surprise stat-wise being only 5L back and having no form at 3m+ under rules and, even more, In Compliance (15L) (0 from 5 in 3m+ chases). I'll look at them closely but it may be that In Compliance in particular will just be an "outlier" - i.e. it would be counterproductive to try to explain its performance statistically.
I'll let you know how it goes.
How did your pal doing the dissertation get on?
In any event, congratulations to those shrewd enough to back the winner and/or any of the placed horses today.
I was going to follow all four selections. The wife spent the morning singing shakalakababy shakalakababy, so i let her have that one, and swapped for Neptunes Collonges.
So in a space of a short while, I had the one and two in the National, Brad scored and we were promoted. Amazing, utterly amazing, and eight hours on i'm still smiling like a baby (one absorbing outrageous alcohol levels).
Same time, same place next year Peanuts. I genuinely hope you get as much fun and enjoyment out of this thread as i know i and others do.
I'm a keen racing fan, but you have taken the research into this race beyond anything or anyone i've ever known.
Every jump racing fan will have found yesterday's race very saddening but, while that is an extremely important issue (I've a few more brief comments on that subject that I'll post later), there is a unique excitement to the GN which has fascinated me, like many others, since earliest memories - in my case watching Red Alligator win in 1968. I don't think that will ever change so, the Man above willing, I'll be here same time next year (I might even post a few comments on the Addicks in the meantime now the moaners (well, all but the perennial ones) have been quietened .......for a few months).
Particularly glad you had the first two after I led you astray on Mon Mome. Very well done. Shame that Shaka couldn't quite hang in there at the end or you'd have been moving to the Directors' Box ;o)
Animal Cruelty...............Yaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwnnnnnnnnn. Bore off.
They live better lives than most human beings, they love it.
Bit of a drag to have my first unprofitable GN for 7 years but, though NC's win is certainly another demo that the trends can't be applied rigidly, I do think the stat-model approach is still intact, even if I mis-tweaked it last time. NC was in the margin of error group of 5 and, aside from SHB, of the top 6 selections, 3 fell (I wrongly gave Becauseicouldntsee the benefit of the doubt on his fall last time as he'd been very fresh and the Rocker's fall was obviously totally unexpected) and the other 2 ran well for a long way. 3 of the 6 were among the 8 still in contention 3 out. So I'm not going to jettison the spreadsheet just yet.
I can't get my head around why Richard Johnson rode Planet Of Sound quite as aggressively as that when there was a questionmark over stamina. Being handy is one thing but he was clearly beginning to run out of gas not long after the 2nd Canal Turn (I was hoping he was just giving him a breather).
Shakalakaboomboom's only an 8 year-old and will probably get the trip as he matures (maybe like when Hedgehunter's stamina ran out when falling at the last in 2004 as an 8 y-o) - 28L from the winner is certainly creditable. Depending on his weight he could be much closer next time as he certainly jumped beautifully.
Enjoy the summer - a lot to look forward to.
Sorry you had an unprofitable year, at least there were other things to soften the blow yesterday! It was such a shame that Shakalakaboomboom couldn't maintain the pace that you both predicted he had - plus of course that Sunnyhillboy shortened up at the last metre! Still I look forward to repeating all of the drama and anticipation next year!
Sadly we'll never know whether the weight would have stopped Synchronised, which I imagine would have been the reason his system red-lined him, though the winner shows (once again) that weight isn't the absolute stopper it once was.
Keen to see Shaka run again next year as a 9 y-o, he could certainly improve.
I'm not bothered about my single place return except that, especially for those latching on to my selections for the first time this year, I dearly wish McLernon had been a little more vigorous in the saddle in the last 5 strides (that doesn't mean with the whip).
With my approach, especially with no longer priced selections this year (which sadly reminds me of Scotsirish of course), if I miss the winner I'll need a couple of places to make a profit but at least it wasn't a blank. Aside from the win at Carlisle, I'm cheered by the fact that the stat-model approach definitely remains valid, as your pal's results demonstrate. The winner was certainly not an outlier - just my own mis-tweakings to blame for missing him this year. I'll post some specific thoughts on the stats in the next couple of days for anyone that's interested.