We live in by far the most dangerous of times since ww2. Sadly, most people are too preoccupied with Kim Kardashian and Kylie fucking Jenner to notice it, and too thick to understand it even if they didn't have their heads buried in the smartphone sand.
The temperatura has started to rise here again with the arrests of the politicias behind last friday's Independence vote, as would be expected. While I agree with @CharltonMadrid that putting these people in prison sends all sorts of messages back to Catalunya and raises the ire of the Independence people. what really was the alternative. These guys crossed line after line simply by putting the process in motion and taking it up to a vote for Independence. The head of the Catalan Parliament Came Forcadell at this point should have explained that the vote had no validity given the numbers voting, but she is hardline Independence, having arrived in parliament from the ANC which is an Independence platform, and in the final debate she opted for trying to silence the opposition as she didn't like their opinions. She's currently out under vigilance while she prepares her defence, but she's due back next thursday and I imagine that will be her behind bars too.
Action has already begun - we had various roads cut by protests this morning, and a strike which had alreday been arranged for por wages will now be a general strike next wednesday against 'political repression'. That may well begin to tire people, who will see themselves losing another day's pay for a cause not quite half of them support. And here will lie a problem. These are not political prisoners put away for their beliefs. They broke a lot of laws and have been the driving forcé behind alll the latest protests. There are also a whole series of 'misappropriation of public funds' charges. I saw an article last week in an on line bulletin board called www.elconfidencial.com. I cannot vouch for how reliable this is, so this is not in any way proved facts, but the account published said that the Independence movement proposed a budget back in 2015 or 2016 in which they arranged money going to various áreas like roads, social services, etc. However, as son as the budget was confirmed, they began to divert funds out of the places they had agreed to send it in order to build a parallel state. Particularly necessary was a new Income Tax service for Catalunya to become available the momento Independence was achieved, as well as a lot of slush funding for all the various fronts such as propaganda, the creation of new websites and all the other many things they needed. All this is now slowly coming to light, although while the article was very detailed, I haven't seen too much of this elsewhere. If true, it suggests the people currently in the Nick can expect to spend a lot of well earned time there. However, there is a large group who want Independence on the streets for whom this is still proof Franco's ghost is still alive.
I've seen a couple of opinión polls. One, from interviews between 16 and 22 october, suggested a 6% rise in pro Independence voting, while another shortly after (interview dates unknown) suggested that things were exactly the way they have been for 5 years, with the Independence parties likely to win an election by 1 seat, but get less votes. However the situation is so volatile that even the polling companies are advising taking their percentages with a lot of caution.
I'm going back to the UK tomorrow and looking forward to seeing the Truro game on sunday, and also to leave this behind. But I'm going to a Travel trade fair at the Excel (the WTM for those who are interested) and my main job is to sell Catalunya as a destination for next year. That's going to be a hard sell, although after seeing bookings crash by 30% last month (some hotels have said it was the worst october on record) there has been a small recovery since article 155 kicked in. But it's very tense here, Mr Puigdemont, hiding in Brussels, has accepted the new elections in december (gee thanks) and seems keen to convert them as usual as a plebiscite on Independence, while demanding the government stand by the result. That's not going to happen at least as far as Independence goes - they won't be getting any favours from Madrid after this. The sad thing is that a new government would be in a position to negotiate and get a better deal after december 21st. Sad, because the only thing they will want to discuss is freedom for the criminals put away yesterday, and Independence for Catalunya. But that's a long way off. I read yesterday that Catalunya's contribution to the Spanish GDP has gone from 19% to 12%, and it's still sinking as the companies continue to leave. By december, there may not be much to fight over.
Synopsis: You can think about Independence, if you must, but if you dare do something about it - voting, damn you - the State will physically attack you, call your referendum a sham, seek to arrest and jail your top people ...and call for measures that suit the purposes of the status quo.
So if London decided to break away from England and voted to do so, this would be your view? And then if Chelsea decided to break away from break-away London.... this would be your view? That anyone can break away from anyone at any time and not allowing the breakaway is an "attack" by the state?
Spent a bit of time this week in Castilla-Leon, specifically in and around Valladolid, arguably one of the 'heartlands' of Spain and the vitriol towards Puigdemont and the separatists is incredible. I was interested to see how it was outside Madrid but it seems to confirm what I thought, that this affair seems to have brought Spain together never as before. There seem to be Spain flags everywhere I go.
Puigdemont looks increasingly to be on a huge ego trip from his self-imposed exile but he probably realises that although the independence movement may have got stronger (or not) his own time has gone due to his lack of decisiveness and the pressures he has had to face from his allies/rivals. His own party (centre-right)'s support has dwindled whilst his coalition partners the left-wing Esquerra Republica has grown. The fact that their leader Junqueras has gone to prison now make them seem more 'authentic' in their principles to independence supporters than the Walter Mitty-esque Puigdemont. Many people are also wondering who is paying for his time in Belgium - the Catalan taxpayers?
Another lopsided article from the Guardian. Madrid did not 'renege' on a promise not to suspend autonomy. They were warning that it was a likely consequence from shortly after the referendum, and on a virtually daily basis thereafter. They asked Puigdemont to clarify whether he had declared independence, and as is habitual with him, he swerved the question. But they declared independence last friday and knew the consequences.
These are not 'blatently political imprisonments' except among those who are blindly demanding Independence. These are people who have diverted public money out of the catalan treasury and used it for their own ends. They have pushed through an independence bid illegally breaking laws and ignoring over half the population. And we then get to put up with them whinging about victimisation. Did you know that the spokesperson for the Ciutadans party Ines Arrimades has been declared persona non grata in Llavaneras? In the Independence debate she asked Puigdemont to condemn that sort of behaviour. He ignored her completely. Life in the new republic! These people were called into Madrid to declare on thursday, but refused to answer questions from anyone but their own lawyers. They were within their rights, but also showed the utter contempt they have for absolutely anyone who doesn't share their view. Their uprising also shares a lot of points with the infant 3rd Reich, which got into gear with a similar beerhall putsch. The whole view that Catalans with long roots in Catalunya are superior to those with one or both parents from elsewhere are very distasteful, as are ideas that Catalans are genetically different from Spanish. But they aren't pushing these ideas to the outside world as often as they are the ones about being opressed.
Is this still getting much coverage in the UK? We're now in the build up to the elections time and it looks like there won't be a united ticket for the separatist parties, which will splinter the independence vote. Thankfully the possibility of violence hasn't happened so far, even after the jailing of the separatist leaders.
Is this still getting much coverage in the UK? We're now in the build up to the elections time and it looks like there won't be a united ticket for the separatist parties, which will splinter the independence vote. Thankfully the possibility of violence hasn't happened so far, even after the jailing of the separatist leaders.
Not really, we've got our own gaggle of rancid fuckwits dominating the front pages this week, along with the Paradise papers leaks.
Just a brief update from here, after having a week back in the UK which made a nice change. The news here is a lot more subdued after all the fireworks in october. There was a big protest on saturday in Barcelona (pólice put the numbers at 750,000) against the jailing of the Independence leaders. The president of the Generalitat, Carme Forcadell, managed to get away with avoiding more tan a night in the slammer by making a huge payment (can't remember the Word here) against further crimes. She also made a fairly bizarre statement that the declaration of Independence was 'symbolic' and agreed to abide by the Spanish and Catalan constitution in the future, and as part of that rather timid agreement, she was noticable by her absence on saturday. There is a rumour that the other jailed members of the Catalan 'process' will be offered the same terms to get out of jail. A large payment up front and a pledge to keep within the constitution, In that way they can come out and campaign, and I imagine, the Spanish government takes away their 'martyr' posture for the coming elections. The Catalans tried to involve Amnesty International in the imprisonment business, but AI refused point blank to describe them as 'prisoners of concience', though they did ask that they be freed. Away from the likes of Sinn ein, the SNP and the Liga de Norte, there is precious backing to describe the Catalans as being opressed, though that is the ongoing message here. Catalan TV continues to provide a completely different viewpoint from nearly everywhere else.
We had a general strike here last wednesday. It attracted very liitle support among people who work. This seems to have been recognised by the organisers who sent out pickets to blockade various road and rail points. They brought the high speed rails links between Barcelona and Madrid and France to a standstill, and blocked major roads to the outrage of people who needed to work, and especially ìndependent transport drivers who found their loads of foodstuffs couldn't be delivered. However, Catalan state TV cheerfully told us that production at the large distribution centre Mercabarna was down 80%, ignoring the fact that the workers had all turned up but the lorries couldn't get in. Sadly, this polarisation is going to go on for a while now.
The económics are still down. One of the biggest trade fairs in the world, the Mobile phone GSM which comes to Barcelona every february, has announced it will consider changing location after next years event if things don't settle down. The mayoress of Barcelona, Ada Colau, has shown again her usual business acumen, by ignoring this and continuing to provoke instability. Her run as mayores has been propped up by support fron the Catalan Socialist Party, the PSC, who have done a lot of work to keep business flowing. On monday, she broke her pact with them as they backed the introduction of article 155 suspending Catalan autonomy pending elections. The general accusation she recieves is that despite Barcelona being generally against Independence, she is far busier defending Independence tan she is helping Barcelona.
And as a quick addition, one of the vice presidents of the ERC, Comin, this morning admitted they never had a majority for declaring Independence. So all of this disaster, and it turns out they knew it wouldn't happen. Really pathetic now, and happily, this guy is one of those on the list for future prosecution and hopefully a long long spell inside. The moral of the story seems to be you should never let politicians orgnise anything.
Lots of anticipation here for the Catalan elections in two days, which will serve as a proper test of how Catalans feel about independence. The Independence parties are much more divided than before and it looks like the new Catalan president could be Ines Arrimades, the leader of Ciudadanos, who were formed as an anti independence movement. Will be close on Thursday, with seven main parties running, but at least it will be a properly run election which will allow all Catalans' voices to be heard.
Today is the big day here, on paper at least. The result is too tight to call as far as I can see. There was a report on tuesday here in the Catalan press that the parties are trying to capture the votes of the17% undecided group. As you can imagine, that is a potential game changer, as given how tight opinión polls have the elections, a swing either way (or potentilly one of these 'silent minority' groups who don't talk, just vote) could tip the vote either way. The good thing is that it is potentially a free and fair election, though I caught a report on the telly from a hidden camera showing one of the Independence parties (the ERC) explaining to their members how to get onto the counting tables to try and remove as illegible votes against Independence, and include any that are genuinely illegible as votes for the ERC. They have also demanded to be able to personally recount the votes, which is a novelty to say the least.
On the eve of the elections though, there was a good article in the Guardian last night, which pointed out that the whole 'process' has simply polarise Catalunya. Where previously it was regarded as being 'plural' with the options of being both Catalan and Spanish, there is now a real hatred on both sides. A guy in Zaragoza was murdered a week ago by a Catalan sympathiser because he had a couple of braces with the colours of the Spanish flag. Ines Arrimades was shopping with her husband this week and was filmed being abused by a passerby who chased her yelling 'get back to Spain you fucking fascist'. On the other side, what was a hugely marginalised ultra right minority here has been energised, and some of the pro unity marches have been adorned with a small group of Seig Heiling skin heads, which has been gleefully seized upon by the pro Independence Catalan press (and the Independent in the UK).
Sadly, the most likely outcome will be a set of parties hopelessly Split, in which neither side can cobble together any sort of majority in order to govern, which means we get to repeat the whole process at the end of may (that the dates are being talked about suggests it is the most likely outcome). Another six months of both sides calling the other fascists, and ongoing splits. There was a report this week in one of the Catalan newspapers that foreign investment in Catalunya fell by 75% in the last quarter, and that is the real damage we are feeling. The effects socially are every day, but the economics is a bit of a sly process and will get progressively worse if things aren't remedied. A constitutionalist victory tonight would at least give us a bit of stability here and might even calm the trade and investment fears, but if the seperatists get even a tiny majority, the chaos will continue.
It appears there is a very high turn out and the polls are closed now. Is there a formal exit poll in Spain / Catalonia and when are results expected. As for the result it is what it is and the politicians will have to make the next leg of the journey.
Murders, mayhem and economic damage will hopefully encourage people to tone things down but that's not always how it works. It's up to the centrist politicians and the electorate to steer this one back to normal - same as Brexit and same with Trump - but it won't be an easy journey
Following it at the moment and only a small amount has been counted so far. Exit polls are pretty varied and maybe not reliable but it will definitely be a coalition of some kind as the majority is 68 and no party is likely to get more than thirty seats.
news outlets now suggest that the separatists will get a majority from a coalition after 45% votes counted - but are they prepared to work together and on what platform?
The seperatists look very likely to have a possible absolute majority, though Cuidadanos were overall winners. The question of whether the CUP will agree to work with ERC and Junts per Catalunya. I have to say I was surprised and dissapointed to see Carles Puigdemont get so many votes. Not a good night for the economy, but we'll see how it all shakes down in the next few days.
I heard on the radio that Pep was being investigated by Spain because he wore that yellow ribbon.
Yes, I read that somewhere. I can't stand the man, but I genuinely don't see what there is to 'investigate' when someone wears a yellow ribbon - do the colors clash?
Seems like a fair reflection of Catalan feelings towards independence now, with just under half being in favour of it and the biggest party being the pro-unionist Ciudadanos. Be interesting to see if the separatist parties can put aside their differences to just scrape a majority in the parliament: there is no love lost between them and apart from all being independents they have little else in common politically.
Perhaps a proper referendum is what is needed now. Based on the popular vote after last night's regional elections, the pro-unionists would just win it but it would be very close.
@CharltonMadrid I haven't seen the actual votes cast. An exit poll I saw last night predicted Ciutadans as the winners, while the indpendence bloc would win on seats but not votes, but I haven't commented as I haven't seen a confirmation of the last bit. If you want to analise the vote a Little, you would probably have to admit that Ciutadans won a few votes as a tactical option - the 37th seat they won last night happened while Arrimades was talking, and it clearly came from the PP. However that would be to take some credit away from a very charismatic leader (or fascist if you voted the other way).
I don't really know what a real referéndum would achieve now as last nights results show how split Catalunya is. A win for the constitutionalists would be so narrow that the Independence bloc would write it off and keep pushing for further votes in the future. A win for the Independence bloc would equally be so narrow that to declare Independence would disenfranchise a huge percentage of 'plural' Catalunya irrevocably. I guess my view is that you need a big swing (60% in favor to pick a number out of the hat) to make such a radical change, which the Indepes clearly don't have. I cannot see them accepting the challenge of getting 60% to achieve Independence, any more tan Rajoy would risk a straight referéndum right now with the numbers we saw last night.
I suppose that this vote can at least be said to mean we don't have to repeat the election in may. That apart, I see no good in it at all. The Independence parties are all shrilly proclaiming vindication for the New Republic this morning, when it would appear they only have that by means of seats won, not votes cast, and besides, it continues their ongoing policy of negating the value of the large bloc who voted against. Ines Arrimades was cheerfully proclaiming a win too, but equally, she will almost certainly be unable to form a government despite having the biggest number of seats - the socialists are unlikely to want to form a coalition with a party they regard as right wing, and that in itself ends the argument. The only interviews with any real logic were the two losers, the PP who were decimated in the swing to Ciutadans and admitted it was a distrous showing, and the CUP whose ultra anti system rhetoric 'may' have cost them, but who probably suffered a similar swing to the PP as their voters fled to the main Independence parties. Whatever, a lot of foreign investment and general trade which was waiting on last nights results will probably look elsewhere, I work in tourism, and this should be a boom time for next years bookings. It is, in Andalusia, Valencia and Madrid - we cannot find hotels for everyone now. In Barcelona, requests are almost at zero and the hotels are tearing their hair out. Odd that the Independence parties have given such a boost to the rest of Spain at a heavy cost to their own voters, but I guess that is politics.
It's dificult to predict the next step. Despite their animosity, I think the Junts Per Catalunya (Puigdemont) and ERC (Jonqueras) will find enough common ground to form a government. The CUP were rather less arrogant last night and offered themselves to any coalition dedicated to forming a new Republic, where weeks ago they told everyone that they would only consider joining a government that would instantly declare Independence, and no one who would even consider negotiating with Spain. If the euphoria of last night persists (they have a slightly reduced number of votes from 2015, which was enough to push the whole Independence protests into action in the first place) we can look forward to this all repeating in the next few months. But that's way beyond my ability to predict.
Just to follow up the previous post, the difference in actual votes cast was 200,000 in favor of continued unión with Spain. It's a fairly fractional difference, so the constitutionalists probably have marginally more right to be happy, though as they will be in almost certain opposition there's not much to cheer about. The Independantists claiming victory are actually slightly out of step, as they won more seats but less votes. The system of seats dates back to the original laws drawn up in 1980, which for some reason gives places like Lleida 11% of the seats with only 5% of the population, while Barcelona where Independence is vastly more unpopular has proportionally less seats. Whatever, I'm not expecting any of that reality to cloud anyone's judgement and I'm sure the Independence bloc will continue to speak for all Catalans, as in their opinión, the only ones worthy of consideration are the ones who voted for Independence.
Really going to be stretching 'the will of the people' to claim they want independence now. People's republic of Lleida and Girona maybe but it's clear the rest want to carry on as normal.
What is interesting about the narrow separatist majority is that the three parties have wildly different approaches and that a number of those elected are either in jail or self imposed exile - so not available to vote! Whilst Rajoy has been somewhat confrontational, he has forced a democratic election with mass participation, as opposed to the referendum which was a farce. As @CharltonMadrid has stated the polls yesterday a much better reflection of views given that it was a free and fair election.
We just have to wait and see what happens whilst they try to form a government but the separatists may expend a lot of energy on trying to set their colleagues free. And in the meantime business looks to invest anywhere in Spain except Catalonia! And if the separatists attempt to act outside of the constitution again then there is a precedent for what happens next!
Question is how much damage does the region have to take before the electorate shift a little and vote for politicians who want to bring jobs and prosperity to the region? Sound familiar?
As I said long ago I still can't see why the people of Catalonia shouldn't be given a proper referendum on independence as in UK and Scotland. An election like yesterday was never going to solve anything imo.
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Action has already begun - we had various roads cut by protests this morning, and a strike which had alreday been arranged for por wages will now be a general strike next wednesday against 'political repression'. That may well begin to tire people, who will see themselves losing another day's pay for a cause not quite half of them support. And here will lie a problem. These are not political prisoners put away for their beliefs. They broke a lot of laws and have been the driving forcé behind alll the latest protests. There are also a whole series of 'misappropriation of public funds' charges. I saw an article last week in an on line bulletin board called www.elconfidencial.com. I cannot vouch for how reliable this is, so this is not in any way proved facts, but the account published said that the Independence movement proposed a budget back in 2015 or 2016 in which they arranged money going to various áreas like roads, social services, etc. However, as son as the budget was confirmed, they began to divert funds out of the places they had agreed to send it in order to build a parallel state. Particularly necessary was a new Income Tax service for Catalunya to become available the momento Independence was achieved, as well as a lot of slush funding for all the various fronts such as propaganda, the creation of new websites and all the other many things they needed. All this is now slowly coming to light, although while the article was very detailed, I haven't seen too much of this elsewhere. If true, it suggests the people currently in the Nick can expect to spend a lot of well earned time there. However, there is a large group who want Independence on the streets for whom this is still proof Franco's ghost is still alive.
I've seen a couple of opinión polls. One, from interviews between 16 and 22 october, suggested a 6% rise in pro Independence voting, while another shortly after (interview dates unknown) suggested that things were exactly the way they have been for 5 years, with the Independence parties likely to win an election by 1 seat, but get less votes. However the situation is so volatile that even the polling companies are advising taking their percentages with a lot of caution.
I'm going back to the UK tomorrow and looking forward to seeing the Truro game on sunday, and also to leave this behind. But I'm going to a Travel trade fair at the Excel (the WTM for those who are interested) and my main job is to sell Catalunya as a destination for next year. That's going to be a hard sell, although after seeing bookings crash by 30% last month (some hotels have said it was the worst october on record) there has been a small recovery since article 155 kicked in. But it's very tense here, Mr Puigdemont, hiding in Brussels, has accepted the new elections in december (gee thanks) and seems keen to convert them as usual as a plebiscite on Independence, while demanding the government stand by the result. That's not going to happen at least as far as Independence goes - they won't be getting any favours from Madrid after this. The sad thing is that a new government would be in a position to negotiate and get a better deal after december 21st. Sad, because the only thing they will want to discuss is freedom for the criminals put away yesterday, and Independence for Catalunya. But that's a long way off. I read yesterday that Catalunya's contribution to the Spanish GDP has gone from 19% to 12%, and it's still sinking as the companies continue to leave. By december, there may not be much to fight over.
Puigdemont looks increasingly to be on a huge ego trip from his self-imposed exile but he probably realises that although the independence movement may have got stronger (or not) his own time has gone due to his lack of decisiveness and the pressures he has had to face from his allies/rivals. His own party (centre-right)'s support has dwindled whilst his coalition partners the left-wing Esquerra Republica has grown. The fact that their leader Junqueras has gone to prison now make them seem more 'authentic' in their principles to independence supporters than the Walter Mitty-esque Puigdemont. Many people are also wondering who is paying for his time in Belgium - the Catalan taxpayers?
These are not 'blatently political imprisonments' except among those who are blindly demanding Independence. These are people who have diverted public money out of the catalan treasury and used it for their own ends. They have pushed through an independence bid illegally breaking laws and ignoring over half the population. And we then get to put up with them whinging about victimisation. Did you know that the spokesperson for the Ciutadans party Ines Arrimades has been declared persona non grata in Llavaneras? In the Independence debate she asked Puigdemont to condemn that sort of behaviour. He ignored her completely. Life in the new republic! These people were called into Madrid to declare on thursday, but refused to answer questions from anyone but their own lawyers. They were within their rights, but also showed the utter contempt they have for absolutely anyone who doesn't share their view. Their uprising also shares a lot of points with the infant 3rd Reich, which got into gear with a similar beerhall putsch. The whole view that Catalans with long roots in Catalunya are superior to those with one or both parents from elsewhere are very distasteful, as are ideas that Catalans are genetically different from Spanish. But they aren't pushing these ideas to the outside world as often as they are the ones about being opressed.
We had a general strike here last wednesday. It attracted very liitle support among people who work. This seems to have been recognised by the organisers who sent out pickets to blockade various road and rail points. They brought the high speed rails links between Barcelona and Madrid and France to a standstill, and blocked major roads to the outrage of people who needed to work, and especially ìndependent transport drivers who found their loads of foodstuffs couldn't be delivered. However, Catalan state TV cheerfully told us that production at the large distribution centre Mercabarna was down 80%, ignoring the fact that the workers had all turned up but the lorries couldn't get in. Sadly, this polarisation is going to go on for a while now.
The económics are still down. One of the biggest trade fairs in the world, the Mobile phone GSM which comes to Barcelona every february, has announced it will consider changing location after next years event if things don't settle down. The mayoress of Barcelona, Ada Colau, has shown again her usual business acumen, by ignoring this and continuing to provoke instability. Her run as mayores has been propped up by support fron the Catalan Socialist Party, the PSC, who have done a lot of work to keep business flowing. On monday, she broke her pact with them as they backed the introduction of article 155 suspending Catalan autonomy pending elections. The general accusation she recieves is that despite Barcelona being generally against Independence, she is far busier defending Independence tan she is helping Barcelona.
On the eve of the elections though, there was a good article in the Guardian last night, which pointed out that the whole 'process' has simply polarise Catalunya. Where previously it was regarded as being 'plural' with the options of being both Catalan and Spanish, there is now a real hatred on both sides. A guy in Zaragoza was murdered a week ago by a Catalan sympathiser because he had a couple of braces with the colours of the Spanish flag. Ines Arrimades was shopping with her husband this week and was filmed being abused by a passerby who chased her yelling 'get back to Spain you fucking fascist'. On the other side, what was a hugely marginalised ultra right minority here has been energised, and some of the pro unity marches have been adorned with a small group of Seig Heiling skin heads, which has been gleefully seized upon by the pro Independence Catalan press (and the Independent in the UK).
Sadly, the most likely outcome will be a set of parties hopelessly Split, in which neither side can cobble together any sort of majority in order to govern, which means we get to repeat the whole process at the end of may (that the dates are being talked about suggests it is the most likely outcome). Another six months of both sides calling the other fascists, and ongoing splits. There was a report this week in one of the Catalan newspapers that foreign investment in Catalunya fell by 75% in the last quarter, and that is the real damage we are feeling. The effects socially are every day, but the economics is a bit of a sly process and will get progressively worse if things aren't remedied. A constitutionalist victory tonight would at least give us a bit of stability here and might even calm the trade and investment fears, but if the seperatists get even a tiny majority, the chaos will continue.
Murders, mayhem and economic damage will hopefully encourage people to tone things down but that's not always how it works. It's up to the centrist politicians and the electorate to steer this one back to normal - same as Brexit and same with Trump - but it won't be an easy journey
Perhaps a proper referendum is what is needed now. Based on the popular vote after last night's regional elections, the pro-unionists would just win it but it would be very close.
I don't really know what a real referéndum would achieve now as last nights results show how split Catalunya is. A win for the constitutionalists would be so narrow that the Independence bloc would write it off and keep pushing for further votes in the future. A win for the Independence bloc would equally be so narrow that to declare Independence would disenfranchise a huge percentage of 'plural' Catalunya irrevocably. I guess my view is that you need a big swing (60% in favor to pick a number out of the hat) to make such a radical change, which the Indepes clearly don't have. I cannot see them accepting the challenge of getting 60% to achieve Independence, any more tan Rajoy would risk a straight referéndum right now with the numbers we saw last night.
I suppose that this vote can at least be said to mean we don't have to repeat the election in may. That apart, I see no good in it at all. The Independence parties are all shrilly proclaiming vindication for the New Republic this morning, when it would appear they only have that by means of seats won, not votes cast, and besides, it continues their ongoing policy of negating the value of the large bloc who voted against. Ines Arrimades was cheerfully proclaiming a win too, but equally, she will almost certainly be unable to form a government despite having the biggest number of seats - the socialists are unlikely to want to form a coalition with a party they regard as right wing, and that in itself ends the argument. The only interviews with any real logic were the two losers, the PP who were decimated in the swing to Ciutadans and admitted it was a distrous showing, and the CUP whose ultra anti system rhetoric 'may' have cost them, but who probably suffered a similar swing to the PP as their voters fled to the main Independence parties. Whatever, a lot of foreign investment and general trade which was waiting on last nights results will probably look elsewhere, I work in tourism, and this should be a boom time for next years bookings. It is, in Andalusia, Valencia and Madrid - we cannot find hotels for everyone now. In Barcelona, requests are almost at zero and the hotels are tearing their hair out. Odd that the Independence parties have given such a boost to the rest of Spain at a heavy cost to their own voters, but I guess that is politics.
It's dificult to predict the next step. Despite their animosity, I think the Junts Per Catalunya (Puigdemont) and ERC (Jonqueras) will find enough common ground to form a government. The CUP were rather less arrogant last night and offered themselves to any coalition dedicated to forming a new Republic, where weeks ago they told everyone that they would only consider joining a government that would instantly declare Independence, and no one who would even consider negotiating with Spain. If the euphoria of last night persists (they have a slightly reduced number of votes from 2015, which was enough to push the whole Independence protests into action in the first place) we can look forward to this all repeating in the next few months. But that's way beyond my ability to predict.
We just have to wait and see what happens whilst they try to form a government but the separatists may expend a lot of energy on trying to set their colleagues free. And in the meantime business looks to invest anywhere in Spain except Catalonia! And if the separatists attempt to act outside of the constitution again then there is a precedent for what happens next!
Question is how much damage does the region have to take before the electorate shift a little and vote for politicians who want to bring jobs and prosperity to the region? Sound familiar?