Energy Bills

Never mind transfer deadline day. We’re now 5/6 days from Kwasi Kwarteng being in charge of the economy in what is likely to be the biggest financial challenge since WW2. Let that sink in.

Over boss has a plan 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62742303

10 point plan here
https://www.ovoenergy.com/ovo-newsroom/press-releases/2022/september/ten-point-plan

MrWalker said:

Over boss has a plan 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62742303

10 point plan here
https://www.ovoenergy.com/ovo-newsroom/press-releases/2022/september/ten-point-plan

Interesting. I thought the plan from the head of Scottish Power sounded pretty good, but would have required a significant upfront borrowing commitment from the government (circa £100BN I believe) which I can’t see Truss going for. 

Bournemouth Addick said:

Crisis averted...

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1565298102524846080?s=20&t=eaC4G0bowjjw1yie1UWViA

In the bottom left corner of the screen you can see the pound crashing against the Dollar and Euro whilst he mutters this nonsense. 

I blame the Germans

from the FT https://on.ft.com/3AHGfV9

Pound has tanked this month, and is making the energy issues worse

Sterling has recorded its steepest monthly decline against the dollar since the wake of the Brexit referendum against a backdrop of intensifying economic and political uncertainty. The pound fell 4.5 per cent in August to $1.16 in the biggest monthly drop since October 2016. It also declined by almost 3 per cent against the euro. It started September with a further 0.3 per cent fall against the greenback, although it was roughly flat against the common currency. The currency’s August tumble reflects the deteriorating outlook for Britain’s economy as the energy crisis deals a powerful blow to businesses and consumers. The new prime minister, set to be named next week, could bring further uncertainty as they set new fiscal priorities. “Cyclical crosswinds are likely to intensify for the pound into the autumn as the UK economy navigates new fiscal initiatives against still-rising energy costs and consumer price index,” JPMorgan analysts said last month. Liz Truss, frontrunner to win the Conservative party leadership contest, has vowed to offer £30bn in tax cuts as part of a plan to buttress the UK economy against the worsening cost of living crisis. 

Economists say a loosening of fiscal policy could alleviate the recession that is forecast by the Bank of England and many City economists to begin later this year. However, some analysts have said a stimulus of this nature could make it more difficult for the BoE to battle the worst bout of inflation in more than 40 years. Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec in London, said the sterling’s rapid fall was “very worrying” because it underlined concerns that if Truss were named prime minister, her government’s policies would diverge from the BoE. UK debt markets also sold off in August, with a broad Bloomberg index tracking government and corporate debt falling more than 6 per cent, much worse than regional peers including Germany and France. The selling sent 10-year government borrowing costs in the gilt market soaring more than 0.9 percentage points in the biggest rise since at least 1989. In equities, the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized UK-listed companies, which are considered more sensitive to the domestic economic outlook than those listed on the more internationally focused FTSE 100, fell 5.5 per cent in August. George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said investors were right to question whether the UK’s mix of fiscal and monetary was appropriate and how it would affect inflation. “Pricing pressures are becoming persistent and broader.

But what kind of signal is the UK government sending about inflation?” said Saravelos, adding that the BoE  had not been as aggressive or effective in its communications about inflation risks as either the US Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank. Saravelos said the reaction of currency markets to aggressive fiscal promises that were unfunded or a broad-based VAT tax cut were likely to be less favourable than help on energy bills targeted at the relevant income groups. The pound was also pulled lower by a broad rise in the US dollar last month as traders bet that the Fed will pursue a strategy of aggressive rate increases in the coming months. But the pound’s fall in August was still more severe than any of the G10 currencies besides Sweden’s krona. There are tentative signs that pressure on the currency could be easing. Speculators, including funds that trade currency derivatives, have cut their bearish bets against the sterling in recent weeks. The group now holds a net short futures position of 27,966 contracts, compared with a recent high of 80,372 in late May, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data compiled by Bloomberg. “Leveraged funds are not aggressively short against [sterling],” said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets. “Other fund managers — asset allocators — are reducing their sterling hedges which suggests they are trimming their exposure to UK assets

 But it is unclear if these recent moves are being driven by short-term portfolio flows or by shifts in longer-term foreign direct investment flows.” Large international investors cut their exposure to the UK stock market in July, with a net 15 per cent of global fund managers reporting an “underweight” UK equity position, a fall of 11 percentage points compared with the previous month’s position, according to Bank of America, which canvassed the views of 250 respondents with combined assets of $752bn.

Bournemouth Addick said:

se9addick said:

MrWalker said:

Over boss has a plan 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62742303

10 point plan here
https://www.ovoenergy.com/ovo-newsroom/press-releases/2022/september/ten-point-plan

Interesting. I thought the plan from the head of Scottish Power sounded pretty good, but would have required a significant upfront borrowing commitment from the government (circa £100BN I believe) which I can’t see Truss going for. 

I think his suggestion to have a centralised, strategic, government owned purchaser of energy has been put forward on this thread already but is very unlikely to be taken forward as, ya know, it's all a bit communist innit!

I am sure Truss can get one of her mates to screw it up for us and charge a huge consultancy fee. 

Don’t forget those more powerful vacuum cleaners. That’ll show ‘em. 

Bournemouth Addick said:

I know the political right don't do irony or self awareness but even so, they must see it in this right?

The disconnect between people like Johnson and the population is just staggering. I’m not confident that Truss will have any more link to reality either. So far what she’s been saying shows no sign of recognising of just how serious this is all becoming. It’s going to take a Covid style amount of money to steer us through this. Upwards of £100 billion. 

valleynick66 said:

Bournemouth Addick said:

I know the political right don't do irony or self awareness but even so, they must see it in this right?

Out of interest did the EU resurrect this for it’s member states?

Regardless and all political leanings aside  I suspect some form of energy rationing across Europe will be needed this winter whether that be industry asked to restrict in some way or public buildings closed / restricted etc. 

A mild winter must be the biggest hope for all of Europe. 

Time to start seeing some benefits from global warming! 

valleynick66 said:

Bournemouth Addick said:

I know the political right don't do irony or self awareness but even so, they must see it in this right?

Out of interest did the EU resurrect this for it’s member states?

Regardless and all political leanings aside  I suspect some form of energy rationing across Europe will be needed this winter whether that be industry asked to restrict in some way or public buildings closed / restricted etc. 

A mild winter must be the biggest hope for all of Europe. 

Would it surprise you to know that the article was of course a load of bollocks? There are a whole range of products the EU has been looking at from an environmental impact point of view, taking into account lots of factors, such as lifespan, spare part availability, insulation and efficiency but as far as I know there have been no bans on kettles in the EU yet. British or otherwise. 

Bournemouth Addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

https://www.realweather.co.uk/uk-winter-2022-2023-weather-forecast/

Sods Law overrules any scientific prediction. It'll be bloody freezing this year, just wait and see!

Bournemouth is sub tropical compared to Yorkshire. Man up.

Boris gave his last speech today and gave this piece of advice 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We have waited ages for Boris Johnson &amp; the Govt of which Liz Truss is a part to advise us what we should do about the extraordinary living crisis that we are facing and FINALLY who knew the answer was a NEW KETTLE?<br><br> <a href="https://t.co/ySR9WICH6w">pic.twitter.com/ySR9WICH6w</a></p>&mdash; nazir afzal (@nazirafzal) <a href="

https://twitter.com/nazirafzal/status/1565329798435569665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

">September 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

cabbles said:

IdleHans said:

I'm doing my bit. Completely stopped hoovering and ironing, and have just stacked about 800 logs in the shed. Have that, Putin!

I'm just singing Rule Britannia and waving my union jack flag really fast, hoping that I can generate the energy required to heat my house that way

Whilst hoping the aliens come and rescue you 👽