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Grand National 2022
Comments
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Fantastic offer once again @bobmunro.
Just one question. It advises to put all your selections onto your slip. Does this mean the offer is only for the first bet(s) placed? Or can I put a bet on now, then further separate bets and they will all qualify (up to the £125) as in previous years?0 -
paulbaconsarnie said:Fantastic offer once again @bobmunro.
Just one question. It advises to put all your selections onto your slip. Does this mean the offer is only for the first bet(s) placed? Or can I put a bet on now, then further separate bets and they will all qualify (up to the £125) as in previous years?
You don't have to put them on the same slip so can put them on at any time up to 11.59am on Saturday.2 -
I understand you can bet on multiple bet slips with the qualifying bets and you'll get up to £125 of your stake back (so up to £250 total each-way stakes) as long as bets placed before 11.59am on Saturday.paulbaconsarnie said:Fantastic offer once again @bobmunro.
Just one question. It advises to put all your selections onto your slip. Does this mean the offer is only for the first bet(s) placed? Or can I put a bet on now, then further separate bets and they will all qualify (up to the £125) as in previous years?1 -
Fantastic read @PeanutsMolloy! Love this thread!Caribbean boy out now so Eclair Surf gets in!1
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I am in , fiddleontheroof, lost in translation & School Boy Hours.
Thanks Peanuts, i have been keeping an eye on this thread and just gone with value and a combination of some of your initial thoughts. Be lucky!1 -
It is undeniably a great offer from Bet365 but I just checked the odds and they're pretty poor. 10/1 on Enjoy D'Allen, Escaria Ten and Minella Times is pretty awful, they're all at least 12/1 elsewhere.
A quick check with Skybet and 365 are only better odds on around 4 of the top 20.1 -
There’s always a balancing going on. Same thing happens with the firms that pay the most places, they’ll invariably have shorter odds too…cafcfan1990 said:It is undeniably a great offer from Bet365 but I just checked the odds and they're pretty poor. 10/1 on Enjoy D'Allen, Escaria Ten and Minella Times is pretty awful, they're all at least 12/1 elsewhere.
A quick check with Skybet and 365 are only better odds on around 4 of the top 20.1 -
Had my 3 on for a while - Freewheelin Dylan and Fiddlerontheroof thanks to Peanuts' great insight (FWD @ 100/1 antepost). Have gone for Delta Work as well after Cheltenham.
Will use the Bet365 offer to double up on DW and have a flutter on Enjoy Allen1 -
On the ones you have listed then yes - bottom price. Most of the others are not massively out of line.cafcfan1990 said:It is undeniably a great offer from Bet365 but I just checked the odds and they're pretty poor. 10/1 on Enjoy D'Allen, Escaria Ten and Minella Times is pretty awful, they're all at least 12/1 elsewhere.
A quick check with Skybet and 365 are only better odds on around 4 of the top 20.
That's the win market of course. If you wanted to back for example Enjoy D'Allen for the win market for £10 you would get £130 back at 12/1. A tenner each-way (only costs £10) with bet365 at 10/1 would return £140 so the equivalent of 13/1.
Apply that to every runner and we'll probably be best priced on everything when comparing the win book.
Punters can shop around of course.
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Farclas out too0
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£10 EW @ 10/1 returns £140 if it wins and £30 if it places with B365cafcfan1990 said:It is undeniably a great offer from Bet365 but I just checked the odds and they're pretty poor. 10/1 on Enjoy D'Allen, Escaria Ten and Minella Times is pretty awful, they're all at least 12/1 elsewhere.
A quick check with Skybet and 365 are only better odds on around 4 of the top 20.
£10 Win @ 12/1 returns £130 if it wins and nothing if it places with those others
So you win £10 more if it wins with B365. If it finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th you would win £20 with B365 and lose £10 with the others.
However, you will almost certainly get a better price on Betfair Exchange for almost all of the selections but, again, you won't have the "free shot" at the place. You might, however, consider splitting your stakes between B365 and the Exchange thus giving you something back if it places but more profit if it wins. You will have to wait for the "day of the race" market to go up later today to do so though as the Ante Post market is now suspended.
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Really struggled to find an angle into it this year. Delta Work and Fiddlerontheroof the two was most keen on but prices felt about right by the time I looked at it. If Charlie Longsdon trains the winner of the National the game really is in trouble though0
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The New tote is also a viable option now.Addick Addict said:
£10 EW @ 10/1 returns £140 if it wins and £30 if it places with B365cafcfan1990 said:It is undeniably a great offer from Bet365 but I just checked the odds and they're pretty poor. 10/1 on Enjoy D'Allen, Escaria Ten and Minella Times is pretty awful, they're all at least 12/1 elsewhere.
A quick check with Skybet and 365 are only better odds on around 4 of the top 20.
£10 Win @ 12/1 returns £130 if it wins and nothing if it places with those others
So you win £10 more if it wins with B365. If it finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th you would win £20 with B365 and lose £10 with the others.
However, you will almost certainly get a better price on Betfair Exchange for almost all of the selections but, again, you won't have the "free shot" at the place. You might, however, consider splitting your stakes between B365 and the Exchange thus giving you something back if it places but more profit if it wins. You will have to wait for the "day of the race" market to go up later today to do so though as the Ante Post market is now suspended.0 -
Like I said, "undeniably a great offer", not everything is a massive dig at your firm Bob. Of course what you've stated is correct, factoring the half stake back inflates the odds, I was merely stating the offer isn't quite as good as it seems when you factor is fairly poor prices.bobmunro said:
On the ones you have listed then yes - bottom price. Most of the others are not massively out of line.cafcfan1990 said:It is undeniably a great offer from Bet365 but I just checked the odds and they're pretty poor. 10/1 on Enjoy D'Allen, Escaria Ten and Minella Times is pretty awful, they're all at least 12/1 elsewhere.
A quick check with Skybet and 365 are only better odds on around 4 of the top 20.
That's the win market of course. If you wanted to back for example Enjoy D'Allen for the win market for £10 you would get £130 back at 12/1. A tenner each-way (only costs £10) with bet365 at 10/1 would return £140 so the equivalent of 13/1.
Apply that to every runner and we'll probably be best priced on everything when comparing the win book.
Punters can shop around of course.
Either way, the Grand National is like that anyway, not much value in it with a horse at 10/12/14 to 1 when it's such a lottery.0 -
You think it's poor now - just wait until you see the SP of the horses and the overround of the book. Last year's was 146% and that was the lowest for 15 years! With BOG you have some insurance but not much and even less if you back near to the off!cafcfan1990 said:
Like I said, "undeniably a great offer", not everything is a massive dig at your firm Bob. Of course what you've stated is correct, factoring the half stake back inflates the odds, I was merely stating the offer isn't quite as good as it seems when you factor is fairly poor prices.bobmunro said:
On the ones you have listed then yes - bottom price. Most of the others are not massively out of line.cafcfan1990 said:It is undeniably a great offer from Bet365 but I just checked the odds and they're pretty poor. 10/1 on Enjoy D'Allen, Escaria Ten and Minella Times is pretty awful, they're all at least 12/1 elsewhere.
A quick check with Skybet and 365 are only better odds on around 4 of the top 20.
That's the win market of course. If you wanted to back for example Enjoy D'Allen for the win market for £10 you would get £130 back at 12/1. A tenner each-way (only costs £10) with bet365 at 10/1 would return £140 so the equivalent of 13/1.
Apply that to every runner and we'll probably be best priced on everything when comparing the win book.
Punters can shop around of course.
Either way, the Grand National is like that anyway, not much value in it with a horse at 10/12/14 to 1 when it's such a lottery.0 -
Agreed, not a race for the punter. Unless you get a 16/1 winner and a 50/1 place of courseAddick Addict said:
You think it's poor now - just wait until you see the SP of the horses and the overround of the book. Last year's was 146% and that was the lowest for 15 years! With BOG you have some insurance but not much and even less if you back near to the off!cafcfan1990 said:
Like I said, "undeniably a great offer", not everything is a massive dig at your firm Bob. Of course what you've stated is correct, factoring the half stake back inflates the odds, I was merely stating the offer isn't quite as good as it seems when you factor is fairly poor prices.bobmunro said:
On the ones you have listed then yes - bottom price. Most of the others are not massively out of line.cafcfan1990 said:It is undeniably a great offer from Bet365 but I just checked the odds and they're pretty poor. 10/1 on Enjoy D'Allen, Escaria Ten and Minella Times is pretty awful, they're all at least 12/1 elsewhere.
A quick check with Skybet and 365 are only better odds on around 4 of the top 20.
That's the win market of course. If you wanted to back for example Enjoy D'Allen for the win market for £10 you would get £130 back at 12/1. A tenner each-way (only costs £10) with bet365 at 10/1 would return £140 so the equivalent of 13/1.
Apply that to every runner and we'll probably be best priced on everything when comparing the win book.
Punters can shop around of course.
Either way, the Grand National is like that anyway, not much value in it with a horse at 10/12/14 to 1 when it's such a lottery.
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Does this mean Fortescue is in? Fingers crossed as I really fancy himoldbloke said:Farclas out too0 -
1% per runner is a reasonable rule of thumb and was ever thus. I think 135-140% is not unreasonable in a 40 runner handicap.Addick Addict said:
You think it's poor now - just wait until you see the SP of the horses and the overround of the book. Last year's was 146% and that was the lowest for 15 years! With BOG you have some insurance but not much and even less if you back near to the off!cafcfan1990 said:
Like I said, "undeniably a great offer", not everything is a massive dig at your firm Bob. Of course what you've stated is correct, factoring the half stake back inflates the odds, I was merely stating the offer isn't quite as good as it seems when you factor is fairly poor prices.bobmunro said:
On the ones you have listed then yes - bottom price. Most of the others are not massively out of line.cafcfan1990 said:It is undeniably a great offer from Bet365 but I just checked the odds and they're pretty poor. 10/1 on Enjoy D'Allen, Escaria Ten and Minella Times is pretty awful, they're all at least 12/1 elsewhere.
A quick check with Skybet and 365 are only better odds on around 4 of the top 20.
That's the win market of course. If you wanted to back for example Enjoy D'Allen for the win market for £10 you would get £130 back at 12/1. A tenner each-way (only costs £10) with bet365 at 10/1 would return £140 so the equivalent of 13/1.
Apply that to every runner and we'll probably be best priced on everything when comparing the win book.
Punters can shop around of course.
Either way, the Grand National is like that anyway, not much value in it with a horse at 10/12/14 to 1 when it's such a lottery.
The problem for bookmakers is the place book with 6 or maybe even 7 places paid resulting in it being close to or even overbroke - this has a natural tendency to inflate the win book.0 -
One for Peanuts, sorry if it has been covered previously…
Do you treat F/PU/UR differently or all the same? Secondarily, in the case of a fall especially, does it matter whether it’s at the first couple of fences (tends to indicate bad luck?) or coming up the straight (stamina issues?)?Would be curious to know if these are weighted differently for the model or if it’s such a rare occurrence for the horses that tend to make the frame that treating them differently might introduce more noise than signal?2 - Sponsored links:
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yes but will be burdened with my cash tooValleyGary said:
Does this mean Fortescue is in? Fingers crossed as I really fancy himoldbloke said:Farclas out too
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The model doesn't generally dissect the failures too much, though for certain positives (i.e. outperformance in Spring or strike rate at 3m+), because they can be a small sample in a runner's record, I do look at the circumstances if they F or UR (beaten or otherwise) and adjust accordingly - a late F doesn't necessarily mean the tank was emptying of course (e.g. Galopin Des Champs).Callumcafc said:One for Peanuts, sorry if it has been covered previously…
Do you treat F/PU/UR differently or all the same? Secondarily, in the case of a fall especially, does it matter whether it’s at the first couple of fences (tends to indicate bad luck?) or coming up the straight (stamina issues?)?Would be curious to know if these are weighted differently for the model or if it’s such a rare occurrence for the horses that tend to make the frame that treating them differently might introduce more noise than signal?
Generally as regards jumping prowess, I've abandoned applying an objective stat-test to try to determine if the runner's a good jumper or not, simply because it's unreliable.
Even in the old days, Rough Quest had a reputation and record as a dodgy jumper but it didn't stop him and the way Magic of Light ploughed through The Chair and the last but still near-missed, says a lot about the new fences and that it's perhaps mainly about a horse being nimble enough to find a foot, as opposed to their propensity to klonk one.
Eclair Surf is an interesting one in that regard because he does often throw in a terrible jump (almost kamimaze-like) and yet it didn't stop him at Warwick or near-missing at Newcastle. He handled quick ground in the Eider but I suspect, facing the GN fences for the first time, there's a higher risk he'll depart if they're going at Good ground pace.
I take account of that (correctly or not) once I'm choosing between the model's selections, rather than try to do so in the stat tests - just impossible to do with any reasonable accuracy.
Hope that answers your query but let me know if I missed the angle you were exploring.3 -
National reserves
1 Commodore
2 School Boy Hours
3 Romain De Senam
4 Roi Mage
SBH so near but now unlikely to get in.0 -
get the stopwatch ready0
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I made that 5m37s, 2secs faster than last year (Going stick 5.6 today, 5.4 last year) so that figures. Genuine Good to Soft I'd say, as per Official.
Rain's stopped today, no more of any appreciable amount forecast until race time on Sat (possible light shower tomorrow)
They'll no doubt put more water on but if it's dry and sunny-ish on Saturday, as forecast, with the now customary 5.15 start, I'd say we're looking at officially GS (as usual) but potentially on the quicker side.
If that's right, plus for Fiddler, Dingo and Dylan.
No worries for Delta Work and Enjoy D'Allen.
They'll cope but best chance for Longhouse Poet, Snow Leopardess and Death Duty would be with more juice IMO.That said, ground calculations for a GN are really tricky. Horses that appear to want it soft sometimes just need a test and, so long as they’re not so outpaced they get caught up in traffic, they can be as competitive at an extreme trip as on Soft.
We’ll see.
Fingers crossed.0 -
Thanks @PeanutsMolloy been a fabulous read once again. Got on your top 4 early to benefit from the long odds at the time and bet my £40 GN limit against them.
Then in stepped @bobmunro's lot to offer me a whole heap of free £5 bets over the last few weeks which I have lobbed on the odds on each fav of each race to build up a pot of £40 free money winnings which I have used to back 3 more of Peanuts selections for free using the Money back offer.
Happy days.3 -
Cheers @Athletico CharltonAthletico Charlton said:Thanks @PeanutsMolloy been a fabulous read once again. Got on your top 4 early to benefit from the long odds at the time and bet my £40 GN limit against them.
Then in stepped @bobmunro's lot to offer me a whole heap of free £5 bets over the last few weeks which I have lobbed on the odds on each fav of each race to build up a pot of £40 free money winnings which I have used to back 3 more of Peanuts selections for free using the Money back offer.
Happy days.
Hope I’ve not led everyone astray.
Fingers crossed.0 -
That’s perfect and makes a lot of sense. Thank you as always!PeanutsMolloy said:
The model doesn't generally dissect the failures too much, though for certain positives (i.e. outperformance in Spring or strike rate at 3m+), because they can be a small sample in a runner's record, I do look at the circumstances if they F or UR (beaten or otherwise) and adjust accordingly - a late F doesn't necessarily mean the tank was emptying of course (e.g. Galopin Des Champs).Callumcafc said:One for Peanuts, sorry if it has been covered previously…
Do you treat F/PU/UR differently or all the same? Secondarily, in the case of a fall especially, does it matter whether it’s at the first couple of fences (tends to indicate bad luck?) or coming up the straight (stamina issues?)?Would be curious to know if these are weighted differently for the model or if it’s such a rare occurrence for the horses that tend to make the frame that treating them differently might introduce more noise than signal?
Generally as regards jumping prowess, I've abandoned applying an objective stat-test to try to determine if the runner's a good jumper or not, simply because it's unreliable.
Even in the old days, Rough Quest had a reputation and record as a dodgy jumper but it didn't stop him and the way Magic of Light ploughed through The Chair and the last but still near-missed, says a lot about the new fences and that it's perhaps mainly about a horse being nimble enough to find a foot, as opposed to their propensity to klonk one.
Eclair Surf is an interesting one in that regard because he does often throw in a terrible jump (almost kamimaze-like) and yet it didn't stop him at Warwick or near-missing at Newcastle. He handled quick ground in the Eider but I suspect, facing the GN fences for the first time, there's a higher risk he'll depart if they're going at Good ground pace.
I take account of that (correctly or not) once I'm choosing between the model's selections, rather than try to do so in the stat tests - just impossible to do with any reasonable accuracy.
Hope that answers your query but let me know if I missed the angle you were exploring.0 -
@PeanutsMolloy
sorry for the lazy approach but what the picks for saturday or is it still ground dependant
am on the delta work cross country grand national double at £4 ew returning £1136.0 -
Just flick through the last couple of pages and stop at his posts mates, it’s all there1
