greatest show on turf Cheltenham 2021

77redarmy77 said:

supaclive said:

Aye Right, whilst I got on at 16s and it's now 5s - I am thinking of cashing out my bet as I put £25 ew on and my cash out right now is £100....

I think it should place, but I am not necessarily sure it wins, so why risk it, for a biscuit and just take the £50 profit?    Thoughts anybody... placing will give me £105 back so £5 more... but still...

I wouldn't cash out, to be honest.

I'd run it... You'd be gutted if it wins

ValleyGary said:

Hate cash-out for reasons like this. The punter should be buzzing that his horse is 16's into 5, yet the bookie has still got you by the psychological nuts.

Exactly!   

CAFCsayer said:

77redarmy77 said:

supaclive said:

Aye Right, whilst I got on at 16s and it's now 5s - I am thinking of cashing out my bet as I put £25 ew on and my cash out right now is £100....

I think it should place, but I am not necessarily sure it wins, so why risk it, for a biscuit and just take the £50 profit?    Thoughts anybody... placing will give me £105 back so £5 more... but still...

I wouldn't cash out, to be honest.

I'd run it... You'd be gutted if it wins

Selfishly I'd love him to cash out, take a profit, be right, and then Happygolucky pisses up!

supaclive said:

Aye Right, whilst I got on at 16s and it's now 5s - I am thinking of cashing out my bet as I put £25 ew on and my cash out right now is £100....

I think it should place, but I am not necessarily sure it wins, so why risk it, for a biscuit and just take the £50 profit?    Thoughts anybody... placing will give me £105 back so £5 more... but still...

Personally I'd be laying to get my money back. £25 on the win, £25 on the place so you've got a risk free bet. Means you having a spare £200 odd though. 

Right, picks for today and a short little bit of written word. If you're following these, good luck, but don't blame me when we're all left holding our dicks at 5pm.

1.20 - This is a cracking Supreme. Appreciate It is a worthy favourite, but incredibly short in the betting, and when we don't really know anything about some of the field, he's worth taking on each-way. For that purpose I will be siding with Ballyadam (1pt EW @ 6/1, 1/5 odds 1-3), who will probably have been trained with the Festival in mind as a peak. If his jumping improves he will be much closer to AI than last time out. Metier could be anything, and if Blue Lord improves like he has done all season, he could well be challenging everything for a place.

1.55 - A race ruined by the absence of Energumene. Shishkin should have this relatively straightforwardly, with Allmankind to chase him home. But this race is worth watching for Shishkin alone I would say. No bet

2.30 - A big old handicap. My first bit of advice is do what you like with this race and take my advice as mainly nominal, because you can make a case for anything. Happygolucky is a huge shout and it seems like every man and his dog has backed him, so he's miles too short and while I want him to win (antepost, sorry) we'll take him on here. I'll start with One For The Team (1pt EW @ 9/1, 1/5 odds 1-5, but Sky offer SEVEN places at 8s), who could bounce back on a quicker surface. I will add one more dart in The Wolf (0.5pts EW @ 20/1, 1/5 odds 1-5 generally, Sky 18s), as the McNeill family sponsor the race and own the horse, and I think would have eyed this up as a target one way or another. 

3.05 - Tasty. Again, do what you like here. I think I'm going to go against the market vibes here purely because they've swung too far in favour of Honeysuckle, who was brilliantly ridden to win the Mares' Hurdle under Rachael Blackmore, and she's slightly too short. But she'd be a brilliant winner and I would love to see her star continue to ascend. But... we'll go with another mare in Epatante (1pt win @ 7/2), who won this last year and at her best is a fantastic horse. Goshen merits so much consideration and is probably a decent price to have a flutter on for the win. Each-way, I won't be having a poke probably, but Sharjah looks a huge price, and you might be able to find something decent for yourselves at William Hill who are paying a mad five places.

3.40 - Ah man. A really good race again, and you'd think Concertista is a bit of a penalty kick. But, it's no fun following short-priced favourites and I will go each-way with the consistent and admirable Black Tears (0.5pts EW @ 11/1, 1/5 odds 1-3 generally), whose Coral Cup form looks good, while she added a Graded success this season. Roksana for me has questions about the trip, while Dame De Compagnie did beat Black Tears last year but in receipt of weight, hence the selection. Indefatigable might be worth a tilt at a big price.

4.15 - This bloody race is one I never ever get right, so steer clear. You can make a case for anything under 20/1 and a few at odds bigger than that tbh. I cannot be bothered to write up all the lines and who you can make a case for, though Homme Public (0.5pts EW @ 11/1, 1/5 odds 1-6 with Sky/PP/Betfair) and Busselton (0.5pts EW @ 9/1, 1/5 odds 1-6 again) are my two pokes. Honestly, whatever. I might as well be sticking a pin in the paper.

4.50 - A race rather opened up by some late movers and shakers, and it turns out I know Max McNeill's nephew so I got word that he's quite bullish about Escaria Ten (1pt win @ 4/1) and his chances in this race. He wouldn't have switched him away from the Ultima - the race he sponsors! - without thinking he had a hope here. Annoyed at this myself as I wanted ET to go to the Ultima. For all this, Next Destination and Galvin are great shouts. If you want a price, Snow Leopardess and The Mighty Don are good double-figure prices with some bookies paying four places.

SUMMARY

1.20 - 1pt EW Ballyadam @ 6/1
1.55 - no bet
2.30 - 1pt EW One For The Team @ 9/1; 0.5pts EW The Wolf @ 20/1
3.05 - 1pt win Epatante @ 7/2
3.40 - 0.5pts EW Black Tears @ 11/1
4.15 - 0.5pts EW Homme Public @ 11/1; 0.5pts EW Busselton @ 9/1
4.50 - 1pt win Escaria Ten @ 4/1

10pts, which for Cheltenham is alright. Let's see what happens. Caveat emptor!

I think today is probably the best betting day of the week (unless you want to get stuck into the very short odds lot with high stakes), let's see if I say that at 5pm!

13:20 - Irascible ew (touched 50/1 this morning, seems a good small stakes poke for 3rd having finished 9L off Appreciate It twice)
13:55 - no bet, can't see past Shishkin and big shame not to have Energumene there
14:30 - Aye Right and Milan Native ew (backed both, hard to turn down 7 places where you'll get money back and a bit more on a place plus have a very good chance of winning - I think the race will suit a front runner like Aye Right who has put in some great performances this season, and Milan Native has festival form and a wind op)
15:05 - Sharjah ew (Imagine Honeysuckle will win, but WH paying 5 places and I fully expect Sharjah to be in there at a double figure price)
15:40 - Indefatigable ew (Concertista should win, can't understand why Roksana hasn't gone for the Stayers in Thyme Hill's absence however at odds some of the outsiders are more interesting - Black Tears and Minella Melody were interesting but when Indefatigable hit 33/1 this morning then that and festival form swayed me)
16:15 - Homme Public ew (following the Houx Gris form line)
16:50 - Snow Leopardess ew (I think Galvin has to have stamina concerns and was certainly too short as a reaction to the Royal Pagaille defection - getting 20/1+ on a proven stayer with decent enough form and a 7lb allowance is very generous)

Hard to oppose the fav in the 1.20 - but I will!!

A little EW interest in Soaring Glory.

bobmunro said:

Hard to oppose the fav in the 1.20 - but I will!!

A little EW interest in Soaring Glory.

Agree if its a slow run race and turns into a sprint Soaring Glory will relish it.

johnnybev1987 said:

Good luck all, gutted i cant be there but next year possibly for a friends stag do.  Fingers crossed for the horses saftey aswell 

Absolutely, may all come home safely - horses and jockeys.

Very, very, very impressive.

A superstar in the making?

Wow, smashed that fairplay! 

Ballyadam 2nd will do me on my superheinz

UK form took a bit of a battering there 

Appreciate It .. next year's Champion Hurdle ?, even .. Gold Cup ? .. just hacked up

This week could be a Mullins Massacre