The Ballymore is a weird one for me, particularly because there is probably some angle to exploit on Betfair, who are offering 1/5 odds first THREE places in a seven-runner race, and are the best prices at the moment on likes of Bear Ghylls - a runner that hugely intrigues me.
I'll probably take what Jamie Codd said about Bob Olinger at face value and leave the race from any tipping perspective (might avail myself of the Sky offer though).
But there must be something in there that could crack the top three - or at least have a good chance of doing so at the prices, no?
A good day and a tidy profit, so we go again tomorrow, expecting to hit that inevitable wall.
Love everyones tips and posts in here as i dip through them and kind of go with my instincts, pure luck really but i am sure you lot have helped me in todays ones at least
A good day and a tidy profit, so we go again tomorrow, expecting to hit that inevitable wall.
Love everyones tips and posts in here as i dip through them and kind of go with my instincts, pure luck really but i am sure you lot have helped me in todays ones at least
I won't be putting up nearly as many points tomorrow I suspect. Ten was quite a lot, and there are genuinely four races where I might not bother with anything (or have a half-point EW play at the very most).
Don't want to tip opposition to Easysland, Monkfish, Chacun Pour Soi, or even Bob Olinger tbh. And the Bumper is always a messy race!
I won't be putting up nearly as many points tomorrow I suspect. Ten was quite a lot, and there are genuinely four races where I might not bother with anything (or have a half-point EW play at the very most).
Don't want to tip opposition to Easysland, Monkfish, Chacun Pour Soi, or even Bob Olinger tbh. And the Bumper is always a messy race!
And that comes hand in hand with what I was saying earlier on about the lack of competitive races. It's even worse this year with the lack of numbers too.
chacun should win but 1st time round Cheltenham and it can expose weaknesses I think my pick of first flow needed a lot more rain hopefully can run into a place.
A good day and a tidy profit, so we go again tomorrow, expecting to hit that inevitable wall.
Love everyones tips and posts in here as i dip through them and kind of go with my instincts, pure luck really but i am sure you lot have helped me in todays ones at least
Looks a lot easier tomorrow - you'll be fine.
Muhahahahahahaha!!
Haha i expect to lose, you are lucky i have more betting tokens from last nights footy so might aswell put them to good use
In other betting news. I had a fiver on 7 games both teams to score last night. With 10 minutes to go I needed Scunthorpe and Ipswich to score for £450. Ipswich was a late game and it was half time. I thought I’d blown it and then in the 93rd minute Scunthorpe scored. Much elation and jumping about . I now had45 minutes for Ipswich to bring my money home. Then the bastards offered me £170 to cash out. I didn’t. Ipswich didn’t bloody score. I hate cash outs. I now feel like crap that I threw £170 away.
Right, Day 2 coming up, and with four really rather short favourites I'll be keeping my powder relatively dry.
1.20 - Jamie Codd said that Bob Olinger is "a God-given certainty" for this race, and he tends to know what he's talking about, so I'm not exactly happy to take him on. However, the form is... well, it's not really worth of making him this short, surely? I'm going to chance on an unexposed type in Bear Ghylls (1pt win @ 9/1 generally), who could really be anything, and should be suited by the longer trip. However, there are loads of ways to play this race: Sky Bet are doing £10 money back as cash; and Betfair are offering three places.
1.55 - This is much like the Arkle yesterday. We should see Monkfish absolutely hose up - the Irish look a class apart this year. No bet
2.30 - Just like my advice for the Fred Winter, my overarching advice is this: choose what you like. You can make a case for LOADS in this. Willie Mullins is an obvious starting point, and for that reason I will be siding with Koshari (1pt EW @ 9/1, 1/4 1-6 with Bet365, but there are LOADS of differing place terms/odds so use Oddschecker), who is a HUGE shout particularly if his jumping is tidier. Nicky Henderson has been good in this of late and Craigneiche and Monte Cristo both merit consideration, but are too short for my liking. I'm going to take a huge speculative punt on Tea Clipper (0.5pts EW @ 50/1, 1/5 odds 1-7 with Betfair/PP/Sky), who has big questions about the trip, but with so many places you never know.
3.05 - Right. Well, I think Chacun Pour Soi is too good for the rest of the field here. But the fact he's odds-on and the rest are double-figure prices makes it completely viable to have an each-way poke here. For that purpose I will take Nube Negra (1pt EW @ 11/1, 1/5 odds 1-3 generally), whose win in the Desert Orchid looked absolutely like no accident ahead of an admittedly below-par Altior. His jumping was stellar and he cruised into the race. First Flow and Politologue, in that order of preference, would be my next two to speculate on.
3.40 - The XC is a very idiosyncratic race and for that reason I will not be taking on last year's winner, Easysland, with anything. Horses can do all sorts over this track, and I don't think Tiger Roll is the force of old, so we could see a bit of a lottery for the places. A few bookies offer 4 places though so let me know if you want an opinion on any horse. No bet
4.15 - Paul Nicholls is always a starting point for the Grand Annual, as he has won it four times, and I'll take 2019's Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres (0.5pts EW @ 25/1, 1/5 odds 1-6 Betfair/PP/Sky, 5 elsewhere) with so many places on offer. Might not have trained on based on his last two outings but you never know. Ultimately I want Zanza to win this for antepost reasons but he's too short now, so I'll go with Not That Fuisse (0.5pts EW @ 16/1, 1/5 odds 1-5 generally, but shop around), who travels really strongly, so a sharp 2m should be perfect for his style. HOWEVER: just stick a pin in it. So many to make a case for.
4.50 - This is between the top two. Again, Irish are looking a class apart. For personal reasons I'll probably have a bet on Shearer (McNeill family are sweet on him!) at huge odds but not really a race for me, this. They don't even jump ffs. No bet
SUMMARY:
1.20 - 1pt win Bear Ghylls @ 9/1 1.55 - No bet 2.30 - 1pt EW Koshari @ 9/1; 0.5pts EW Tea Clipper @ 50/1 3.05 - 1pt EW Nube Negra @ 11/1 3.40 - No bet 4.15 - 0.5pts EW Duc Des Genievres @ 25/1; 0.5pts EW Not That Fuisse @ 16/1 4.50 - No bet
Staked: 8pts (not loads less than yesterday and it's all each way plays, so hopefully one wins and we're in business)
14:30 - Janika (33/1) and Dysart Diamond (25/1) - 7 places 15:05 - Put the Kettle On (11/1) 16:15 - Ibleo (12/1) and Us And Them (16/1) - 6 places
Have also taken a few multiples with Monkfish, Chacun and Easysland which I will lay out of if Monkfish wins as an angle into those races as I'm not particularly convinced by either.
Lucky 31 EW: Sporting John Koshari Put the Kettle on Embittered Ramilies
4fold: Monkfish Chacun Pour Soi Easyland Kilcruit
Singles: 13:20 Bravemansgame (Sky offer, refund if lose) Keskonrisk ew 14:30 Birchdale ew/ witness protection ew (Cheers CAFC) 13:05 Notebook ew 16:15 Embittered win only, Ashutor EW 16:50 Jacks a legend ew (my brothers name lol)
Willie Mullins to train 4 or more winners on day 2 (sky boost)
I would again stress dont follow the above, yesterday i got lucky with a few last minute small stake bets and with Tear for Fear. pure luck , not any stats to back up but see names mentioned. Hope todays horses and jockeys all have a safe day and no casualties.
Think it's a much better bet than Kilcruit, I'm on for a fair chunk so let's hope the old saying of the bookies never get it wrong is correct on this one.
I've watched Kilcruit back several times and he was 24 seconds slower than standard - the race just fell apart for him and he landed the spoils easily. I agree with you and think Sir Gerhard (got 6s antepost which is pretty alright tbh) is a huge chance.
Comments
Very solid day.
Three short favourites tomorrow who I can't see being beat!
I'll probably take what Jamie Codd said about Bob Olinger at face value and leave the race from any tipping perspective (might avail myself of the Sky offer though).
But there must be something in there that could crack the top three - or at least have a good chance of doing so at the prices, no?
Love everyones tips and posts in here as i dip through them and kind of go with my instincts, pure luck really but i am sure you lot have helped me in todays ones at least
Don't want to tip opposition to Easysland, Monkfish, Chacun Pour Soi, or even Bob Olinger tbh. And the Bumper is always a messy race!
1. Lots of no bet races
Probably a cross between 1 and 3 for me
1:55 Monkfish
3.05 Chacun Pour Soi
3.40 Easysland
Good luck all.
1.20 - Jamie Codd said that Bob Olinger is "a God-given certainty" for this race, and he tends to know what he's talking about, so I'm not exactly happy to take him on. However, the form is... well, it's not really worth of making him this short, surely? I'm going to chance on an unexposed type in Bear Ghylls (1pt win @ 9/1 generally), who could really be anything, and should be suited by the longer trip. However, there are loads of ways to play this race: Sky Bet are doing £10 money back as cash; and Betfair are offering three places.
1.55 - This is much like the Arkle yesterday. We should see Monkfish absolutely hose up - the Irish look a class apart this year. No bet
2.30 - Just like my advice for the Fred Winter, my overarching advice is this: choose what you like. You can make a case for LOADS in this. Willie Mullins is an obvious starting point, and for that reason I will be siding with Koshari (1pt EW @ 9/1, 1/4 1-6 with Bet365, but there are LOADS of differing place terms/odds so use Oddschecker), who is a HUGE shout particularly if his jumping is tidier. Nicky Henderson has been good in this of late and Craigneiche and Monte Cristo both merit consideration, but are too short for my liking. I'm going to take a huge speculative punt on Tea Clipper (0.5pts EW @ 50/1, 1/5 odds 1-7 with Betfair/PP/Sky), who has big questions about the trip, but with so many places you never know.
3.05 - Right. Well, I think Chacun Pour Soi is too good for the rest of the field here. But the fact he's odds-on and the rest are double-figure prices makes it completely viable to have an each-way poke here. For that purpose I will take Nube Negra (1pt EW @ 11/1, 1/5 odds 1-3 generally), whose win in the Desert Orchid looked absolutely like no accident ahead of an admittedly below-par Altior. His jumping was stellar and he cruised into the race. First Flow and Politologue, in that order of preference, would be my next two to speculate on.
3.40 - The XC is a very idiosyncratic race and for that reason I will not be taking on last year's winner, Easysland, with anything. Horses can do all sorts over this track, and I don't think Tiger Roll is the force of old, so we could see a bit of a lottery for the places. A few bookies offer 4 places though so let me know if you want an opinion on any horse. No bet
4.15 - Paul Nicholls is always a starting point for the Grand Annual, as he has won it four times, and I'll take 2019's Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres (0.5pts EW @ 25/1, 1/5 odds 1-6 Betfair/PP/Sky, 5 elsewhere) with so many places on offer. Might not have trained on based on his last two outings but you never know. Ultimately I want Zanza to win this for antepost reasons but he's too short now, so I'll go with Not That Fuisse (0.5pts EW @ 16/1, 1/5 odds 1-5 generally, but shop around), who travels really strongly, so a sharp 2m should be perfect for his style. HOWEVER: just stick a pin in it. So many to make a case for.
4.50 - This is between the top two. Again, Irish are looking a class apart. For personal reasons I'll probably have a bet on Shearer (McNeill family are sweet on him!) at huge odds but not really a race for me, this. They don't even jump ffs. No bet
SUMMARY:
1.20 - 1pt win Bear Ghylls @ 9/1
1.55 - No bet
2.30 - 1pt EW Koshari @ 9/1; 0.5pts EW Tea Clipper @ 50/1
3.05 - 1pt EW Nube Negra @ 11/1
3.40 - No bet
4.15 - 0.5pts EW Duc Des Genievres @ 25/1; 0.5pts EW Not That Fuisse @ 16/1
4.50 - No bet
Staked: 8pts (not loads less than yesterday and it's all each way plays, so hopefully one wins and we're in business)
14:30 - Janika (33/1) and Dysart Diamond (25/1) - 7 places
15:05 - Put the Kettle On (11/1)
16:15 - Ibleo (12/1) and Us And Them (16/1) - 6 places
Have also taken a few multiples with Monkfish, Chacun and Easysland which I will lay out of if Monkfish wins as an angle into those races as I'm not particularly convinced by either.
Lucky 31 EW:
Sporting John
Koshari
Put the Kettle on
Embittered
Ramilies
4fold:
Monkfish
Chacun Pour Soi
Easyland
Kilcruit
Singles:
13:20 Bravemansgame (Sky offer, refund if lose) Keskonrisk ew
14:30 Birchdale ew/ witness protection ew (Cheers CAFC)
13:05 Notebook ew
16:15 Embittered win only, Ashutor EW
16:50 Jacks a legend ew (my brothers name lol)
Willie Mullins to train 4 or more winners on day 2 (sky boost)
I would again stress dont follow the above, yesterday i got lucky with a few last minute small stake bets and with Tear for Fear. pure luck , not any stats to back up but see names mentioned. Hope todays horses and jockeys all have a safe day and no casualties.
2. The Big Breakaway
3. Craigneiche
4. Politique
5. Le Breuil
6. Entoucas
7. Sir Gerhard
Super Heinz e/W cost £12, pays £172k.
Craignichie 13/2
Chacun Pour Soi 4/5
Easysland @ 5/6
Ibleo @ 8/1