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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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  • cafcpolo said:

    You mention Farage...What official leave campaign was he part of?
    UKIP

  • Ah, but there's the rub. For weeks, months, years, I've been trying to get @southbank to tell me how Brexit is going to help "these people". Or failing that, how it will at least help him. You've seen his answers. And I pick on him because he represents on here a large bloc of Brexit voters who seem to me to be fixated on Brexit for reasons which look like nothing more than an escape valve for their general, unspecified rage at the world as they see it.

    I would like to to help "these..people". For most of my life I have voted for policies which would have resulted in me paying more direct tax, in the belief that the money might be spent on those who need it more than I do. Does Jacob Rees-Mogg want to help "these people"? Really, does he? Does Aaron Banks? Farage? Johnson?? Do Raab, Grayling, Davies, Fox, Leadsom, McVey, Mordaunt, Patterson, Arlene DUP woman, et al.? Look at those names. The "Mordor of British politics" (to borrow an excellent Czech political insult.)

    Now you may not buy a lot of the policies I support. But I don't think we are that far apart. Should you really be camping on the edge of Mordor?

    In fact, I am camping on the edge of a free trade area that is not in line with other free trade areas, hence the reason I made my decision. However, I have explained this ad infinitum so will not do so again.

    Although I do sometimes wonder if the Berlaymont building is actually Barad-dur :wink:
  • edited November 2018
    There is actually an upside to this saga! Quite simply the government are attempting to implement Brexit and are coming across that reality which the leave campaigns were so careful to avoid. Nietzsche stated that "there are no facts but only interpretations" and we have an ongoing debate about the validity of forecasts and experts. As per this piece, the philosophers of the last century are the starting point for this post truth world whereby people exchange narratives that are at best retrofitted around a convenient subset of the truth. And at worst we have Trump whose narrative steers clear of truth as if it were an inconvenience!

    From the link above, there's a particularly apposite quote: "What has happened in the past 10 days is that the post-truth train of Brexit has finally collided with this “hard core” of undeniable reality, these “lines of resistance”. The hitherto-hypothetical “backstop” proposal is now all-too-real, the stubborn kernel of trouble at the heart of the 585-page deal."

    For the WA has landed and, as posted the other day, polls have seen < 20% approval vs 50% against and 35% don't know. We have also seen the Tories drop 4% moving Labour into a 3% lead. Applying Brexit preferences to the numbers, 10% of leave voters (that's nearly two million!) have opted to abandon the Tories for another party. 6% to UKIP and 4% to Labour which in turn places Labour in the lead. No net movement in Remain supporters and nothing for the Lib Dems since they are a strident Remain party who don't accept the 2016 referendum... so they will always be unattractive to Tory leave voters. We will see how the trend develops as the WA topic and associated drama unfolds.

    Some still maintain Corbyn can't do anything right even up to the point where he is meeting with the other opposition parties to discuss tactics and strategy to defeat the WA and whatever else they agree on. People critique Corbyn but continuously fail to look at why Labour is polling at or around 40% while the Lib Dems are in single digits.

    We might all look at the world through a Remain lens but this is to ignore two core aspects of the challenge. First there are 17.4M Leave voters who expressed an opinion back in 2016 (less the ones who have died!) and secondly Brexit is a paradox. It's essentially an unexploded bomb which won't be defused on March 29th 2019. And there is no single solution which delivers to what was the Leave majority. It has split the Tories into three factions, or rather exposed the split to the whole nation and also pushed the DUP into abstaining of late. Even after they agree a deal they start squabbling again. And should the EU27 agree next Sunday, Gove and the rest will still bang on about customs technology.

    There is an upside and we can start with journalists taking Rees Mogg apart as his attempts to unseat May fail to match the bluster. More importantly, this is an opportunity to learn.

  • Thing about a lot of divorces is what about any kids?
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  • There are no longer 17.4 million living Brexit voters. The number now is barely 16 million.
  • seth plum said:

    Thing about a lot of divorces is what about any kids?

    What divorce. @Southbank has thrown in the towell and this is starting to look like a trial separation!
  • No....I wasn't expecting to get a better deal than the one we have initially or may be not even as good as what we have in terms of trade etc. But eventually, once we un-tie ourselves from the EU & find our feet then I believe the UK can thrive & prosper.

    I've been divorced twice & in neither cases did I come out of the marriages better off financially or even on par. But you don't stay married just because it's easier not to get divorced. For me financially it has been a long hard struggle over the past 8 years....but I'm a lot better off now than I was on the day my decri absolute came through.
    Fabulous work..........the divorce analogy could be to the Brexit thread what the house buying analogy is to the takeover thread.
  • There are no longer 17.4 million living Brexit voters. The number now is barely 16 million.

    Wow, you really asked them all? That is dedication above and beyond-although I must have been out when you came round.
  • Southbank said:

    Wow, you really asked them all? That is dedication above and beyond-although I must have been out when you came round.
    Statistically this is correct. That’s without question.

  • Southbank said:

    Wow, you really asked them all? That is dedication above and beyond-although I must have been out when you came round.
    I think the key word was "living" but there is also an assumption that those who've died since 2016 where all leavers and all those previously too young to vote are remainers.
  • I think the key word was "living" but there is also an assumption that those who've died since 2016 where all leavers and all those previously too young to vote are remainers.
    “The new study was carried out by data analysis experts Focaldata. It was based on two YouGov polls that together surveyed more than 15,000 people.

    In total, it concluded that 2.6 million Leave voters have switched their support to Remain, while 970,000 have moved the other way – a net gain for the pro-EU side of 1.6 million.

    The study found that Labour voters accounted for 1.4 million of the 1.6 million switchers to Remain, significantly outnumbering the 837,000 Tory voters who switched the other way.“
  • Southbank said:

    Wow, you really asked them all? That is dedication above and beyond-although I must have been out when you came round.
    It is a statistical fact. Even moronic Brexit voters can't question actuarial mortality calculations.
  • I think the key word was "living" but there is also an assumption that those who've died since 2016 where all leavers and all those previously too young to vote are remainers.
    No. The study I saw calculated that 450,000 leave voters are dying each year and 150,000 remain voters are dying each year.
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  • stonemuse said:

    “The new study was carried out by data analysis experts Focaldata. It was based on two YouGov polls that together surveyed more than 15,000 people.

    In total, it concluded that 2.6 million Leave voters have switched their support to Remain, while 970,000 have moved the other way – a net gain for the pro-EU side of 1.6 million.

    The study found that Labour voters accounted for 1.4 million of the 1.6 million switchers to Remain, significantly outnumbering the 837,000 Tory voters who switched the other way.“
    So they counted 15,000 not 16 million.
    If only there had been a way of finding out what everybody thought instead of a tiny sample.
  • Well there s a great way to find out. And if people want to leave, they still can. How fair is that?
  • I think the key word was "living" but there is also an assumption that those who've died since 2016 where all leavers and all those previously too young to vote are remainers.
    Not just an assumption, Henry, but a barely concealed celebration. This ghoulish aspect of Remain, whether it is correct or not and like you I doubt it, is one of the most disgraceful parts of the overall Remain argument.
  • It is a statistical fact. Even moronic Brexit voters can't question actuarial mortality calculations.
    Your original assertion though can’t be proven. 1.74 million might have died but how many of those voted. We’re they all brexiters - No. Although stats would indicate that brexiters would be more affected in the age group that have indeed died.

  • Your original assertion though can’t be proven. 1.74 million might have died but how many of those voted. We’re they all brexiters - No. Although stats would indicate that brexiters would be more affected in the age group that have indeed died.

    Don’t understand your point. The study concluded that 450,000 Leavers are dying each year and 150,000 Remainers.
  • Southbank said:

    So they counted 15,000 not 16 million.
    If only there had been a way of finding out what everybody thought instead of a tiny sample.
    Yes - and also finding out why they voted leave would have been useful. Oh no, hang on - they all voted leave for the same reason you did.
  • Southbank said:

    So they counted 15,000 not 16 million.
    If only there had been a way of finding out what everybody thought instead of a tiny sample.
    Do you want people to talk to you like you're an idiot? I'm pretty certain you know that large-scale studies are expensive and take time to do, so aren't practical to run every month or two. I'm also sure you at least understand the basics of a term like statistically significant sample size.

    So you ask the question, just to be contrary, you know exactly why 16 million people are surveyed once a month, and you know that 15,000 isn't a "tiny sample". If you don't think 15k is statistically significant, or the study was flawed in some other way then please tell us and we can have a (hopefully) intelligent debate about.

    But your snipe here is worthless to the conversation and frankly below you. Whilst I may not agree with you politically, you've at least been fairly succinct in your posts on here.
  • Don’t understand your point. The study concluded that 450,000 Leavers are dying each year and 150,000 Remainers.
    It's an estimate, admittedly based on stats. It's not fact
  • Do you want people to talk to you like you're an idiot? I'm pretty certain you know that large-scale studies are expensive and take time to do, so aren't practical to run every month or two. I'm also sure you at least understand the basics of a term like statistically significant sample size.

    So you ask the question, just to be contrary, you know exactly why 16 million people are surveyed once a month, and you know that 15,000 isn't a "tiny sample". If you don't think 15k is statistically significant, or the study was flawed in some other way then please tell us and we can have a (hopefully) intelligent debate about.

    But your snipe here is worthless to the conversation and frankly below you. Whilst I may not agree with you politically, you've at least been fairly succinct in your posts on here.
    I like the thrust of your argument Andy - but the majority of Southbank's posts read like something from a tabloid newspaper.
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