An Irish Sea border would be the end of the UK, an absolutely terrible idea.
The correct answer to all of this is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union and the Single Market with all that it entails. If we were to do this;
- the democratic mandate to leave the EU would be fulfilled - the good Friday agreement would not be jeapordised - the UK would not become fractured - our economy would be protected
Taking the CU & SM off the table before negotiations had even begun was probably the second stupidest thing May has done in this whole shambles (triggering article 50 before she had a clue what she was doing is probably number 1).
Whuch would mean staying under ECJ control and accepting freedom of movement. How many of the 17.4 million thought that woud be the result of leaving the EU do you think?
Given this was proposed multiple times by the official Leave campaigns and all prominent Brexiters then those in the 17.4million either agreed or they weren't paying attention.
That we would keep freedom of movement? Really?
Well stopping freedom of movement seems to have been a definite motivation for those voting brexit. So you have a land border 310 miles long. There are 200 road border crossings, and many other crossing points too. What are the exact practical steps planned by those who voted brexit to control the freedom of movement along that 310 mile border with 200 road crossings, and many other lesser crossing points? How will it work and how much will it cost to prevent freedom of movement of people?
As we have discussed before. Stopping freedom of movement is a legal decision, enforcing it is a policing action. If people vreak the law by coming here illegally and working they risk capture and deportation.
So we literally aren't going to control our borders, we'll just arrest and deport people if they violate them? I wonder how many of the 17.4M voted for that nonsense?
I'm probably getting this wrong again but are you saying @Southbank that we don't have a border per se but rely on picking illegal immigrants up once they enter the UK? How does that work in practise? Will we need further legislation to introduce the compulsary carrying of ID cards and evidence of legal status?
It will work as it works now. If people come here on holiday and stay to work they are breaking the law. The Common Travel Area cooperation between the Irish and British should continue, therefore minimising non EU illegal immigration. I cannot see many French bankers sneaking in to work illegally. There will also be opportunity for people both from the EU and outside it to come and work here legally to fill jobs we cannot internally.
If it works as it works now in what way does brexit deal with freedom of movement? What is the difference?
Because currently EU citizens can come here and work by right. That would change.
OK. And the way it will be monitored is by an increase in internal checks? Swoops and spot checks and the like? If that is the method then there is no need for people movement border checks at Dover or Heathrow or any other place of entry is there? Each individual carries an invisible border around them as it were, and it is down to the authorities to check each individual out at random places throughout the country?
I don't want to be accused of putting words in anyone's mouth but that is my interpretation of where this line of thought is going too. The natural progression is the introduction of a mandatory national identity card, changes to all our liberty to move freely and uninhibited about our daily business and presumably huge costs in additional immigration/policing and a shiny new IT system to manage it all.
Still...no deal's better than a bad deal and all that.
Just a day after Travis Perkins reported Brexit as a cause of their profits drop. Jeez this magical Brexit wonderland had better be bloody good to make up for the economic problems it's causing.
'Wait and see' they say, 'we can't predict the future, but there might be some benefits'. Absolute madness.
Every crap boss is blaming Brexit just now.
Every bad company will do the same... Good time to bury bad news... Ie make redundancies and blame brexit.
Surely if companies are making redundancies its because they are not doing so well. Yes there will be those that are struggling because of poor management but to make workers redundant means that at some point you needed them. If orders are falling it’s more likely because of economic trends rather than company after company just screwing up.
When people keep talking about the 17.4 million as if they are special and their views are paramount and the views of the 28.1 million should be dismissed I will continue to throw these very relevant figures around...all day long...every day... Sorry (well, not really) if that bothers you.
I thought this nonsense was put to bed when I pointed out that a minority of voters kept us in the eec in 1975.
Everybody understood how an election worked back then. There seems to be a tiny minority of people that think by constantly denying the reality of how the democratic process works, it will by some miracle, change the result.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations of every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
Still...no deal's better than a bad deal and all that.
Just a day after Travis Perkins reported Brexit as a cause of their profits drop. Jeez this magical Brexit wonderland had better be bloody good to make up for the economic problems it's causing.
'Wait and see' they say, 'we can't predict the future, but there might be some benefits'. Absolute madness.
Every crap boss is blaming Brexit just now.
Every bad company will do the same... Good time to bury bad news... Ie make redundancies and blame brexit.
Surely if companies are making redundancies its because they are not doing so well. Yes there will be those that are struggling because of poor management but to make workers redundant means that at some point you needed them. If orders are falling it’s more likely because of economic trends rather than company after company just screwing up.
Combination of all of that , but some will do it as they haven't got the balls to say they f*****d up.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
Yours has hasn't it? You initially wanted a soft Brexit now you want the full fat Moggy version because the EU are being nasty to us..! (I'm just joking btw, we've already covered your moment of "enlightenment" several times over).
As for your question, I very much doubt anyone has changed their mind. We've long since passed into bloodminded territory and nothing but Farage and Boris admitting they've just been trolling the country is likely to change that. I had the pleasure of overhearing a conversation in a hotel bar last night between a group of Leavers talking about the NI border issue (they all admitted to each other they voted out btw before anyone starts). Despite all the evidence and forecasts and things like the pound dropping and the banking regulators upping sticks, the NHS recruitment crisis etc, etc, etc. they were still coming out with the same old nonsense as during the referendum about immigrants and sovereignty and control and doing our own deals.
I've said before but in years to come social scientists are going to be fascinated by this period and how a country deliberately pursued a course of action to it's own detriment. Obviously others will disagree with that view but time will tell.
Still...no deal's better than a bad deal and all that.
Just a day after Travis Perkins reported Brexit as a cause of their profits drop. Jeez this magical Brexit wonderland had better be bloody good to make up for the economic problems it's causing.
'Wait and see' they say, 'we can't predict the future, but there might be some benefits'. Absolute madness.
Every crap boss is blaming Brexit just now.
Every bad company will do the same... Good time to bury bad news... Ie make redundancies and blame brexit.
Surely if companies are making redundancies its because they are not doing so well. Yes there will be those that are struggling because of poor management but to make workers redundant means that at some point you needed them. If orders are falling it’s more likely because of economic trends rather than company after company just screwing up.
Combination of all of that , but some will do it as they haven't got the balls to say they f*****d up.
Badly run companies go to the wall, well run companies go to the wall - was ever thus.
Will there be future redundancies that have nothing to do with Brexit? - yes. Will there be future redundancies as a direct result of Brexit? - yes.
Assuming we go for a hard Brexit (which is looking increasingly likely) the UK economy will initially take a big hit, most neutral observers, dare I say experts, are in agreement with that - even the UK Government is in agreement with that. Any recovery based on new trade deals with non-EU countries will take a significant amount of time and our trade with the EU will be subject to tariffs and restrictions unless and until we can agree a free trade deal with the collective 27 - outside of membership of the single market and customs union (Norway/EEA/EFTA) any free trade deal we do manage to cobble together will be on less favourable terms than those we currently experience as members. All of that is likely to affect UK investment and jobs.
In summary there will be a downturn and how long before that reverses is subject to guesswork. I have always accepted the referendum result (albeit I disagreed with that decision) and I hope we can make a silk purse out of a sow's ear - but it will require better politicians than those we are lumbered with now.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
I doubt you will get anyone replying, saying they have changed, as the only regular contributors are here because they feel strongly about the issue ( plus the odd troll, of course). The opinion polls have tracked a shift to a modest Remain majority and at some stage one of the polling companies will do some qualitative research to answer the "why" question.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
I doubt you will get anyone replying, saying they have changed, as the only regular contributors are here because they feel strongly about the issue ( plus the odd troll, of course). The opinion polls have tracked a shift to a modest Remain majority and at some stage one of the polling companies will do some qualitative research to answer the "why" question.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
You mention opinion polls..has anyone ever been asked or know anyone who has, in any poll, as i never have or know anyone who has.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
I doubt you will get anyone replying, saying they have changed, as the only regular contributors are here because they feel strongly about the issue ( plus the odd troll, of course). The opinion polls have tracked a shift to a modest Remain majority and at some stage one of the polling companies will do some qualitative research to answer the "why" question.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
You mention opinion polls..has anyone ever been asked or know anyone who has, in any poll, as i never have or know anyone who has.
Interesting to hear from anyone who has. However since the standard sample is 1000, you are about as likely to get someone who has won more than a grand on Premium Bonds .
You are nowadays much more likely to get "polled" on a commercial topic because those guys "know where we live". I think British Airways send me a questionnaire at least 3 times a year, fair play to them. No evidence they take any notice though :-)
I regularly do YouGov polling (although it is slightly flawed as it is a form of voodoo polling) and they often throw in a question about who you intend to vote for or how you would vote in a second referendum.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
I doubt you will get anyone replying, saying they have changed, as the only regular contributors are here because they feel strongly about the issue ( plus the odd troll, of course). The opinion polls have tracked a shift to a modest Remain majority and at some stage one of the polling companies will do some qualitative research to answer the "why" question.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
You mention opinion polls..has anyone ever been asked or know anyone who has, in any poll, as i never have or know anyone who has.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
I doubt you will get anyone replying, saying they have changed, as the only regular contributors are here because they feel strongly about the issue ( plus the odd troll, of course). The opinion polls have tracked a shift to a modest Remain majority and at some stage one of the polling companies will do some qualitative research to answer the "why" question.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
I agree.
As per my boring anecdote about the bar room conversation I posted above. We, the posters on this thread, are all engaged in the issue one way or another and clearly 'enjoy' dissecting the latest developments. But, and I suspect it may be a majority of the public like those in the bar last night, are not to the same extent. Whether it's confirmation bias, world weariness about it or whatever, but it's clear to me most opinions haven't budged an inch in the last 18 months, despite all the evidence stacking up this is going to be a poor outcome for the UK. I think this is borne out in the Leave vote holding up in polling.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
I doubt you will get anyone replying, saying they have changed, as the only regular contributors are here because they feel strongly about the issue ( plus the odd troll, of course). The opinion polls have tracked a shift to a modest Remain majority and at some stage one of the polling companies will do some qualitative research to answer the "why" question.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
I agree.
As per my boring anecdote about the bar room conversation I posted above. We, the posters on this thread, are all engaged in the issue one way or another and clearly 'enjoy' dissecting the latest developments. But, and I suspect it may be a majority of the public like those in the bar last night, are not to the same extent. Whether it's confirmation bias, world weariness about it or whatever, but it's clear to me most opinions haven't budged an inch in the last 18 months, despite all the evidence stacking up this is going to be a poor outcome for the UK. I think this is borne out in the Leave vote holding up in polling.
I regularly do YouGov polling (although it is slightly flawed as it is a form of voodoo polling) and they often throw in a question about who you intend to vote for or how you would vote in a second referendum.
What's the methodology, how do they reach you in the first place?
YouGov like most of the bigger companies will deploy several different methodologies, and you won't be surprised to hear that some are more expensive than others, so ultimately "who is paying" is important.
I am getting interested in this topic because my wife is an MR pro and we are having discussions about this. After she pointed me towards Eurobarometer, which is run by the European Commission, I studied some of the output, and started to worry that the results are too optimistic ( I.e. too favourable to a pro- EU viewpoint). It helps nobody to have research with inbuilt bias in the sample.
@Bournemouth Addick would love to hear your experience too, do you recall how they got to you, and which polling company it was?
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
I doubt you will get anyone replying, saying they have changed, as the only regular contributors are here because they feel strongly about the issue ( plus the odd troll, of course). The opinion polls have tracked a shift to a modest Remain majority and at some stage one of the polling companies will do some qualitative research to answer the "why" question.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
The opinion polls showed a modest vote for Remain before the referendum I seem to remember, so I would not bank too much on that.
I think you are right in general, and also I have seen some evidence that people's allegiance to Leave or Remain trumps their support for any specific political party. This really does show up the fact that our political parties no longer work as presently constituted.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
I doubt you will get anyone replying, saying they have changed, as the only regular contributors are here because they feel strongly about the issue ( plus the odd troll, of course). The opinion polls have tracked a shift to a modest Remain majority and at some stage one of the polling companies will do some qualitative research to answer the "why" question.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
I agree.
As per my boring anecdote about the bar room conversation I posted above. We, the posters on this thread, are all engaged in the issue one way or another and clearly 'enjoy' dissecting the latest developments. But, and I suspect it may be a majority of the public like those in the bar last night, are not to the same extent. Whether it's confirmation bias, world weariness about it or whatever, but it's clear to me most opinions haven't budged an inch in the last 18 months, despite all the evidence stacking up this is going to be a poor outcome for the UK. I think this is borne out in the Leave vote holding up in polling.
It's not world weariness - there was a recent poll suggesting less than 5% have changed their minds in each direction on the referendum question.
It is the interpretation and execution of Brexit which has a very different mix. There is a clear majority in Parliament for a soft Brexit. And if that happens, Farage will return to frontline politics talking of betrayal etc. Whatever happens in 2018 matters will not be settled for quite a while.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
I doubt you will get anyone replying, saying they have changed, as the only regular contributors are here because they feel strongly about the issue ( plus the odd troll, of course). The opinion polls have tracked a shift to a modest Remain majority and at some stage one of the polling companies will do some qualitative research to answer the "why" question.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
The opinion polls showed a modest vote for Remain before the referendum I seem to remember, so I would not bank too much on that.
I think you are right in general, and also I have seen some evidence that people's allegiance to Leave or Remain trumps their support for any specific political party. This really does show up the fact that our political parties no longer work as presently constituted.
Escalation of commitment is a human behaviour pattern in which an individual or group facing increasingly negative outcomes from some decision, action, or investment nevertheless continues the same behavior rather than alter course. The actor maintains behaviors that are irrational, but align with previous decisions and actions.
The idea that "the democratic process" works by taking a single snapshot opinion at one point in time and then ignore all circumstances that subsequently come to light is probably the most nonsensical "reality" that has come out of the Brexit process.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations if every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
I would be interested to know if any Leave voters on this forum had changed their minds since the referendum and why. And the same for Remainers.
I doubt you will get anyone replying, saying they have changed, as the only regular contributors are here because they feel strongly about the issue ( plus the odd troll, of course). The opinion polls have tracked a shift to a modest Remain majority and at some stage one of the polling companies will do some qualitative research to answer the "why" question.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
The opinion polls showed a modest vote for Remain before the referendum I seem to remember, so I would not bank too much on that.
I think you are right in general, and also I have seen some evidence that people's allegiance to Leave or Remain trumps their support for any specific political party. This really does show up the fact that our political parties no longer work as presently constituted.
They have done a lot of hard work, trying to understand how they got it wrong, which is why I am interested in hearing from people who have participated in such polls since then. We can mock them, but they perform a vital function - at least when specified properly by people with good intentions.
When people keep talking about the 17.4 million as if they are special and their views are paramount and the views of the 28.1 million should be dismissed I will continue to throw these very relevant figures around...all day long...every day... Sorry (well, not really) if that bothers you.
I thought this nonsense was put to bed when I pointed out that a minority of voters kept us in the eec in 1975.
Everybody understood how an election worked back then. There seems to be a tiny minority of people that think by constantly denying the reality of how the democratic process works, it will by some miracle, change the result.
At least you acknowledge the fact that a minority of voters kept us in in 1975. That means you accept that an even smaller minority of voters voted for Brexit in 2016. The issue is that Brexiteers constantly talk about the "will of the people" and "it is what the British people voted for". Such claims are patent nonsense.
This is an existential conundrum. Do the hard Brexiteers in Parliament continue to claim to be acting to deliver the "will of the people", despite the two-fold objections to this, ie it's no longer the will of the majority of the people and it's not in the country's interest?
Still...no deal's better than a bad deal and all that.
Just a day after Travis Perkins reported Brexit as a cause of their profits drop. Jeez this magical Brexit wonderland had better be bloody good to make up for the economic problems it's causing.
'Wait and see' they say, 'we can't predict the future, but there might be some benefits'. Absolute madness.
Every crap boss is blaming Brexit just now.
Every bad company will do the same... Good time to bury bad news... Ie make redundancies and blame brexit.
Surely if companies are making redundancies its because they are not doing so well. Yes there will be those that are struggling because of poor management but to make workers redundant means that at some point you needed them. If orders are falling it’s more likely because of economic trends rather than company after company just screwing up.
Combination of all of that , but some will do it as they haven't got the balls to say they f*****d up.
Well that’s conclusive then.
To be honest I don’t think any company would actually be in the position to be laying off staff if previously they hadn’t had the balls to be actual businessmen. Sorry Chippy but that’s not a credible answer you gave is it ? I do see how it fits your narrative though.
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That £350m ain't half going to be stretched..!
Everybody understood how an election worked back then. There seems to be a tiny minority of people that think by constantly denying the reality of how the democratic process works, it will by some miracle, change the result.
A fair, clear and unarguable decision was made back in 2016. That is a fact and that fact remains. But it's not a fact that conditions, circumstances and situations remain unaltered. Indeed it is also not true that the electorate remains permanently unchanged.
The claim that "democracy" is established by ignoring all the requirements, desires and aspirations of every part of the electorate except for some representatives of the "winning" side is completely nonsensical. And the idea that "democracy" is served by permanently ignoring any change in opinion is bizarre.
Surely no-one genuinely believes that democracy is the opposite of continually soliciting the aspirations of the populace.
And the same for Remainers.
As for your question, I very much doubt anyone has changed their mind. We've long since passed into bloodminded territory and nothing but Farage and Boris admitting they've just been trolling the country is likely to change that. I had the pleasure of overhearing a conversation in a hotel bar last night between a group of Leavers talking about the NI border issue (they all admitted to each other they voted out btw before anyone starts). Despite all the evidence and forecasts and things like the pound dropping and the banking regulators upping sticks, the NHS recruitment crisis etc, etc, etc. they were still coming out with the same old nonsense as during the referendum about immigrants and sovereignty and control and doing our own deals.
I've said before but in years to come social scientists are going to be fascinated by this period and how a country deliberately pursued a course of action to it's own detriment. Obviously others will disagree with that view but time will tell.
Will there be future redundancies that have nothing to do with Brexit? - yes. Will there be future redundancies as a direct result of Brexit? - yes.
Assuming we go for a hard Brexit (which is looking increasingly likely) the UK economy will initially take a big hit, most neutral observers, dare I say experts, are in agreement with that - even the UK Government is in agreement with that. Any recovery based on new trade deals with non-EU countries will take a significant amount of time and our trade with the EU will be subject to tariffs and restrictions unless and until we can agree a free trade deal with the collective 27 - outside of membership of the single market and customs union (Norway/EEA/EFTA) any free trade deal we do manage to cobble together will be on less favourable terms than those we currently experience as members. All of that is likely to affect UK investment and jobs.
In summary there will be a downturn and how long before that reverses is subject to guesswork. I have always accepted the referendum result (albeit I disagreed with that decision) and I hope we can make a silk purse out of a sow's ear - but it will require better politicians than those we are lumbered with now.
Anyway, Theresa May is going to bring the country together in her speech, so it's all going to be ok...
You are nowadays much more likely to get "polled" on a commercial topic because those guys "know where we live". I think British Airways send me a questionnaire at least 3 times a year, fair play to them. No evidence they take any notice though :-)
As per my boring anecdote about the bar room conversation I posted above. We, the posters on this thread, are all engaged in the issue one way or another and clearly 'enjoy' dissecting the latest developments. But, and I suspect it may be a majority of the public like those in the bar last night, are not to the same extent. Whether it's confirmation bias, world weariness about it or whatever, but it's clear to me most opinions haven't budged an inch in the last 18 months, despite all the evidence stacking up this is going to be a poor outcome for the UK. I think this is borne out in the Leave vote holding up in polling.
Edit - It's scheduled for 1:30.
YouGov like most of the bigger companies will deploy several different methodologies, and you won't be surprised to hear that some are more expensive than others, so ultimately "who is paying" is important.
I am getting interested in this topic because my wife is an MR pro and we are having discussions about this. After she pointed me towards Eurobarometer, which is run by the European Commission, I studied some of the output, and started to worry that the results are too optimistic ( I.e. too favourable to a pro- EU viewpoint). It helps nobody to have research with inbuilt bias in the sample.
@Bournemouth Addick would love to hear your experience too, do you recall how they got to you, and which polling company it was?
I think you are right in general, and also I have seen some evidence that people's allegiance to Leave or Remain trumps their support for any specific political party. This really does show up the fact that our political parties no longer work as presently constituted.
It is the interpretation and execution of Brexit which has a very different mix. There is a clear majority in Parliament for a soft Brexit. And if that happens, Farage will return to frontline politics talking of betrayal etc. Whatever happens in 2018 matters will not be settled for quite a while.
Lots of data, going back several years
This is an existential conundrum. Do the hard Brexiteers in Parliament continue to claim to be acting to deliver the "will of the people", despite the two-fold objections to this, ie it's no longer the will of the majority of the people and it's not in the country's interest?
To be honest I don’t think any company would actually be in the position to be laying off staff if previously they hadn’t had the balls to be actual businessmen. Sorry Chippy but that’s not a credible answer you gave is it ? I do see how it fits your narrative though.