I was just about to ask you about Planet of Sound PM. Just had a brief look at the entries and this stood out for me.
He's an interesting one and has drifted a lot with the rain. That Hennessy close 2nd (staying on) with 11.02 is what chiefly underpins his GN stats of course but the Grade 1 win at Punchestown 2 years ago was in a very respectable time and seems to have been disregarded because of Denman's poor show. The weight of 11.05 is a negative (though DPI won with that weight) and the fact that there are several ahead of him on my stats just makes him borderline but he could go very close if it's anything better than GS. In fact, I think he'd give you a good run for your money on GS. He's by Kayf Tara and the damsire is the interesting Dubassoff. Both have sired stayers that acted perfectly well with cut (Dubasoff sired the tough mare and GN 4th Dubacilla, among others) and though he would certainly prefer top of the ground and extreme stamina is an unknown (as it is with many in the field), I don't go along with the presumption, which presumably caused his price to drift, that he MUST have Good ground to get the trip. I added him in small measure to my book when the price drifted to silly levels. Got traded at 60+ on Betfair and WH still go 40/1 (a few others that did likewise have shortened him back to 33/1).
Okay ive gone with Synchronised to win, ill do the rest each way. So low.
I think at 7/1 it's a sensible move to have him win only in order to have a couple of others running for you. Given his jumping style, he may simply not take to the fences or he could just get unlucky. For what it's worth, this is how GN favs have fared since 1989:
2011 The Midnight Club (15/2) 6th 2010 DON'T PUSH IT / Big Fella Thanks (10/1) WON / 4th 2009 Butler's Cabin (7/1) 7th 2008 COMPLY OR DIE / Cloudy Lane (7/1) WON / 6th 2007 Point Barrow / Joe's Edge / Monkerhostin (8/1) Fell at 1st / Pulled-up at 20th / Refused 7th 2006 Hedgehunter / Clan Royal (5/1) 2nd / 3rd 2005 HEDGEHUNTER (7/1) WON 2004 Clan Royal / Bindaree / Joss Naylor / Jurancon II (10/1) 2nd / Unseated at 6th / Pulled-up before 19th / Fell at 4th 2003 Shotgun Willy (7/1) Pulled-up after 21st 2002 Blowing Wind (8/1) 3rd 2001 Edmond / Inis Cara / Moral Support (10/1) Fell at the chair (15th) / Fell at 4th / Refused Canal Turn (8th) 2000 Dark Stranger (9/1) Unseated rider at 3rd 1999 Fiddling The Facts (6/1) Fell at second Becher's Brook (22nd) 1998 EARTH SUMMIT (7/1) WON 1997 Go Ballisitc (7/1) Pulled-up at the 29th 1996 ROUGH QUEST (7/1) WON 1995 Master Oats (5/1) 7th 1994 Moorcroft Boy (5/1) 3rd 1993 Void Race - 1992 Docklands Express (15/2) 4th 1991 Bonanza Boy (13/2) 5th 1990 Brown Windsor (7/1) 5th 1989 Dixton House (7/1) Fell at first Beecher's Brook (6th)
Hopefully will dry up a touch anyway. I noticed he has won on soft before, but obviously this is a different kettle of fish. As i say, only a brief look but he'd be on the e/w shortlist, anyway.
Synchronised won't win, he won at the festival! E/w certainly...
Fair point. Seagram (1991) was the last GN winner to have won at the previous Cheltenham (23 days earlier - SYNC's had the extra week of course) - funnily enough beating GC winner Garrison Savannah. If you're going to win it with topweight you might aswell smash a few other stats in the process..... ;o)
Going changed on the National Course to GS (Soft places) - 6.2 on the going stick. To give you an idea of how flaky the official descriptions can be, on the Saturday in 2010 the GN course had a going stick reading of 6.4 (i.e. slightly drier than today) but the official description was Good (GS places) (quite a bit better than today's official description) and the winning time for Don't Push It, carrying 11.05, was 9m4.6s (5.4 secs faster than standard), suggesting a hint of GF. Who knows how the ground is going to ride? We'll have a clue at 3.45 tomorrow.
Backed West End Rocker back on 18th February at 20's......the earliest I've ever laid a bet on anything! Should I be counting my cash now Peanuts?!
Well Dan, as you know, exactly 100 years ago on Saturday the surest thing afloat struck an iceberg and began to sink. Now, nothing would give me greater pleasure than if the Rocker obliges (though being followed in by one or two of my other selections [...and 3pts at Carlisle naturally] would certainly top it off) but, if you don't mind, I won't make plans to pay off the mortgage just yet. Best of luck mate.
I love horses that can jump, before his injury Teeton Mill was a fantastic jumper as was Best Mate ( I know these two are gold cup horses) .But if you a horse can jump he stands a great chance so if the ground comes up soft giles cross jumps like a stag.
Only 0.5mm rain overnight and as at 7.45 Thursday morning the National course is officially GS (Soft places) but the Turftrax map shows it with only modest areas of Soft and a touch of Good. Forecast today is sunny with possible showers, possibly heavy - could catch them, could miss them. Same for Friday and Saturday. Declarations today.
Le Beau Bai & Always Waining not declared for the race. Assuming he's not injured, that's a brave call on the weather by Richard Lee to scratch LBB - however he was sending someone to walk the course and, if he did so, it's obviously nowhere near soft enough for him. He could have left it another 24hrs to pull out without depriving one of the reserves of a run - must be no chance of Soft or worse in his opinion.
14 y-o Hello Bud and Neptune Equester (5lbs out of the handicap - the first time since 2004 that a runner is O/H) make the line up.
No stat-model here but a small interest e/w in Offshore Account (now 16/1) for me in the Foxhunters this pm. Some good horses in the field and always a lottery with the amateurs on board but he's in decent form in PtPs and Hnt Chses and has jumped the fences well on 3 previous visits (GN trip too far but led at 2nd Bechers in 2009 after Black Apalachi UR'd). 3rd in this last year (same jockey).
Likewise Chief.......plenty of sunshine at Aintree. Given Le Beau Bai's defection, wouldn;t be surprised if the ground rides GS (Gd places) or vice versa this pm.
Have just watched last years Grand National and The Midnight Club was unlucky being badly hampered at the 28th fence and still managed to finish 6th.Im not saying he would of won last year but he would of finished in the first four and at 33/1 I think he is a great bet this year also was impressed with Killyglen's run until falling.
The weather forecast now shows the possibility of only a few mm of showery stuff tomorrow & Sat. Predictably, the ground rode quicker in the Foxhunters than the official description so I'm going to assume that the GN will be run on ground that is Good or on the easy side of Good – in any event, better than the Good-to-Soft that would be the minimum required by Giles Cross.
In a nutshell, my model says that the winner should be one of:
Synchronised Sunnyhillboy West End Rocker Shakalakaboomboom
Biggest dangers:
Planet Of Sound Becauseicouldntsee
Best of luck whether you back any of these or any of the 34 others. Above all, fingers crossed that all horses and jocks come back safe and sound.
Comments
That Hennessy close 2nd (staying on) with 11.02 is what chiefly underpins his GN stats of course but the Grade 1 win at Punchestown 2 years ago was in a very respectable time and seems to have been disregarded because of Denman's poor show.
The weight of 11.05 is a negative (though DPI won with that weight) and the fact that there are several ahead of him on my stats just makes him borderline but he could go very close if it's anything better than GS.
In fact, I think he'd give you a good run for your money on GS. He's by Kayf Tara and the damsire is the interesting Dubassoff. Both have sired stayers that acted perfectly well with cut (Dubasoff sired the tough mare and GN 4th Dubacilla, among others) and though he would certainly prefer top of the ground and extreme stamina is an unknown (as it is with many in the field), I don't go along with the presumption, which presumably caused his price to drift, that he MUST have Good ground to get the trip. I added him in small measure to my book when the price drifted to silly levels. Got traded at 60+ on Betfair and WH still go 40/1 (a few others that did likewise have shortened him back to 33/1).
2011 The Midnight Club (15/2) 6th
2010 DON'T PUSH IT / Big Fella Thanks (10/1) WON / 4th
2009 Butler's Cabin (7/1) 7th
2008 COMPLY OR DIE / Cloudy Lane (7/1) WON / 6th
2007 Point Barrow / Joe's Edge / Monkerhostin (8/1) Fell at 1st / Pulled-up at 20th / Refused 7th
2006 Hedgehunter / Clan Royal (5/1) 2nd / 3rd
2005 HEDGEHUNTER (7/1) WON
2004 Clan Royal / Bindaree / Joss Naylor / Jurancon II (10/1) 2nd / Unseated at 6th / Pulled-up before 19th / Fell at 4th
2003 Shotgun Willy (7/1) Pulled-up after 21st
2002 Blowing Wind (8/1) 3rd
2001 Edmond / Inis Cara / Moral Support (10/1) Fell at the chair (15th) / Fell at 4th / Refused Canal Turn (8th)
2000 Dark Stranger (9/1) Unseated rider at 3rd
1999 Fiddling The Facts (6/1) Fell at second Becher's Brook (22nd)
1998 EARTH SUMMIT (7/1) WON
1997 Go Ballisitc (7/1) Pulled-up at the 29th
1996 ROUGH QUEST (7/1) WON
1995 Master Oats (5/1) 7th
1994 Moorcroft Boy (5/1) 3rd
1993 Void Race -
1992 Docklands Express (15/2) 4th
1991 Bonanza Boy (13/2) 5th
1990 Brown Windsor (7/1) 5th
1989 Dixton House (7/1) Fell at first Beecher's Brook (6th)
Hopefully will dry up a touch anyway. I noticed he has won on soft before, but obviously this is a different kettle of fish.
As i say, only a brief look but he'd be on the e/w shortlist, anyway.
If you're going to win it with topweight you might aswell smash a few other stats in the process..... ;o)
Who knows how the ground is going to ride? We'll have a clue at 3.45 tomorrow.
Best of luck mate.
a great chance so if the ground comes up soft giles cross jumps like a stag.
Forecast today is sunny with possible showers, possibly heavy - could catch them, could miss them.
Same for Friday and Saturday.
Declarations today.
14 y-o Hello Bud and Neptune Equester (5lbs out of the handicap - the first time since 2004 that a runner is O/H) make the line up.
Was Offshore Account a Non-runner? Never got a mention.
Shame that yours UR'd GRAY9 - bit of a soft one.
Giles Cross - rain
Sunnyhillboy
Planet of Sound
State of play - heart e/w bet simply for a getting e/w money consistently in the National.
In a nutshell, my model says that the winner should be one of:
Synchronised
Sunnyhillboy
West End Rocker
Shakalakaboomboom
Biggest dangers:
Planet Of Sound
Becauseicouldntsee
Best of luck whether you back any of these or any of the 34 others. Above all, fingers crossed that all horses and jocks come back safe and sound.
Cheers Peanuts.