Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.
That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
If they keep current form up, Burton won't be in a relegation fight last game of season, which will help.
think we need to win 9 from 15 and 1 of those has to come against Leyton orient,
below are fixtures with teams current league position.
Exeter H 17th Orient A 6th Barnsley H 11th Stockport A 4th Crawley A 22nd Wigan H 16th Pboro A 20th Hudds H 5th Mansfield A 15th Lincoln H 10th Cambridge A 24th Northampton H 19th Wycombe A 2nd Wrexham A 3rd Burton H 21st
looking at that its pretty bleak as not only do we play 4 of the top 6 currently but also a few down the bottom that are fighting for survival, as much as people say brum a was a free hit i dont agree should be trying to win every league game.
if i had to pick 9 wins out of that i would go
exeter h barnsley h crawley a wigan h pboro a hudds h cambridge a northampton h burton h
That does look achievable.... but 1) assumes that we only need 75 points when it could be more this season 2) some of the wins will have to be against the main competitors for 3rd-6th to deprive them of points as several of them are performing well and therefore likely to achieve more than 75
Whilst our form is good, some of the others (L Orient Stockport) is better. TTTop20 highlighted Stockport have achieved 1.9 points per game over the last 3 and a half seasons as they have progressed up the leagues.ie they have winning habits.
I think we have to hope that Wrexham stutter, Huddersfield recent wins are a false dawn and Orient become unstuck with their next 3/4(Bolton away,Birmingham away, us Home , Rotherham away) games and lose confidence for the rest of the run -in.
Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.
That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row since Christmas and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
Glad you have that much faith.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team. Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games. Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.
think we need to win 9 from 15 and 1 of those has to come against Leyton orient,
below are fixtures with teams current league position.
Exeter H 17th Orient A 6th Barnsley H 11th Stockport A 4th Crawley A 22nd Wigan H 16th Pboro A 20th Hudds H 5th Mansfield A 15th Lincoln H 10th Cambridge A 24th Northampton H 19th Wycombe A 2nd Wrexham A 3rd Burton H 21st
looking at that its pretty bleak as not only do we play 4 of the top 6 currently but also a few down the bottom that are fighting for survival, as much as people say brum a was a free hit i dont agree should be trying to win every league game.
if i had to pick 9 wins out of that i would go
exeter h barnsley h crawley a wigan h pboro a hudds h cambridge a northampton h burton h
That does look achievable.... but 1) assumes that we only need 75 points when it could be more this season 2) some of the wins will have to be against the main competitors for 3rd-6th to deprive them of points as several of them are performing well and therefore likely to achieve more than 75
Whilst our form is good, some of the others (L Orient Stockport) is better. TTTop20 highlighted Stockport have achieved 1.9 points per game over the last 3 and a half seasons as they have progressed up the leagues.ie they have winning habits.
I think we have to hope that Wrexham stutter, Huddersfield recent wins are a false dawn and Orient become unstuck with their next 3/4(Bolton away,Birmingham away, us Home , Rotherham away) games and lose confidence for the rest of the run -in.
9 wins would give us 77 points.
77 points would've got you into the play offs in every season apart from 1 since 2010. The one season was 21-22 when Wycombe were 6th with an incredible 83 points. Plymouth in 7th got 80.
Just checked Wrexham’s fixtures and in March they have: Bolton, Huddersfield, Rotherham, Reading, Wycombe and Stockport in that order, that’s a league one equivalent of a ‘month of death’. Suddenly that 8 point gap doesn’t seem so insurmountable - perhaps we’ll be thanking Leyton Orient for beating them last night after all!
Just checked Wrexham’s fixtures and in March they have: Bolton, Huddersfield, Rotherham, Reading, Wycombe and Stockport in that order, that’s a league one equivalent of a ‘month of death’. Suddenly that 8 point gap doesn’t seem so insurmountable - perhaps we’ll be thanking Leyton Orient for beating them last night after all!
Given some of their recent performances, I’ll think they’ll be shitting themselves faced with that.
Just checked Wrexham’s fixtures and in March they have: Bolton, Huddersfield, Rotherham, Reading, Wycombe and Stockport in that order, that’s a league one equivalent of a ‘month of death’. Suddenly that 8 point gap doesn’t seem so insurmountable - perhaps we’ll be thanking Leyton Orient for beating them last night after all!
Just checked Wrexham’s fixtures and in March they have: Bolton, Huddersfield, Rotherham, Reading, Wycombe and Stockport in that order, that’s a league one equivalent of a ‘month of death’. Suddenly that 8 point gap doesn’t seem so insurmountable - perhaps we’ll be thanking Leyton Orient for beating them last night after all!
Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.
That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row since Christmas and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
Glad you have that much faith.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team. Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games. Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.
Bit surprised to hear this criticism after the way we’ve been performing since Northampton. And our bench seems quite strong to me with Gilbert /Berry, Mitchell plus a host of strikers on there.
Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.
That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row since Christmas and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
Glad you have that much faith.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team. Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games. Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.
Bit surprised to hear this criticism after the way we’ve been performing since Northampton. And our bench seems quite strong to me with Gilbert /Berry, Mitchell plus a host of strikers on there.
Lots of strikers on the bench, but how many goals have they actually scored?
Will be twists and turns from now until the end of the season. We have as good chance as anyone. Orient and Wycombe are the real surprise packages this year. I still think we can sneak play offs.
Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.
That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row since Christmas and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
Glad you have that much faith.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team. Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games. Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.
Would you have more confidence in turning those draws into wins if we still had Edun, REG and Allan Campbell as cover?
There’s a risk we start picking up injuries, but depth at this level means ordinary players like those three.
Keeping our best players fit is key, rather than having several mediocre players to call upon. That’ll be the same for most clubs at this level, unless they spend a lot on their squads.
I only really get bothered by other results towards the end of the season when they mean something. Now, yes teams can go on good runs and bad runs but the thing you look at and should look at is your points target. I think that target should be between 75 and 77 points and something around that will see us in the play offs. That hasn't changed from this time last week IMO.
Being in Feb and still having something to play for is a rare treat for us! Even if we don't get playoffs/go up I think we are fairly well set for next season. Don't need wholesale changes for once and 3/4 of real quality could have us challenging for Top 2 perhaps. Fingers crossed Luton, Plymouth & Derby come down as I think that's a 3 that aren't guarenteed to bounce straight back. If Cardiff, Hull or Stoke come down I think they'd smash the league next season.
Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.
That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row since Christmas and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
Glad you have that much faith.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team. Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games. Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.
Why do you feel that way? That’d be 65pts with eight other games to play.
I only really get bothered by other results towards the end of the season when they mean something. Now, yes teams can go on good runs and bad runs but the thing you look at and should look at is your points target. I think that target should be between 75 and 77 points and something around that will see us in the play offs. That hasn't changed from this time last week IMO.
In respect of the relative meaning of results and our chances one can check the bookies odds, or there are two xG sites which make end of season predictions: opta analyst & footballxg.com .
Both of those project us to finish 7th on around 73 points. Opta Analyst gives us a 35-40% chance of making it into the top six. Obviously this picture will change after every round of games, but isn't it great to be in the frame for a change?
The forthcoming game against Leyton Orient could seriously change our chances.
Comments
That does look achievable.... but
1) assumes that we only need 75 points when it could be more this season
2) some of the wins will have to be against the main competitors for 3rd-6th to deprive them of points as several of them are performing well and therefore likely to achieve more than 75
Whilst our form is good, some of the others (L Orient Stockport) is better.
TTTop20 highlighted Stockport have achieved 1.9 points per game over the last 3 and a half seasons as they have progressed up the leagues.ie they have winning habits.
I think we have to hope that Wrexham stutter, Huddersfield recent wins are a false dawn and Orient become unstuck with their next 3/4(Bolton away,Birmingham away, us Home , Rotherham away) games and lose confidence for the rest of the run -in.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team.
Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games.
Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.
77 points would've got you into the play offs in every season apart from 1 since 2010. The one season was 21-22 when Wycombe were 6th with an incredible 83 points. Plymouth in 7th got 80.
9 wins and a draw
OR
8 wins & 4 draws.
If we are goung to lose 3 or 4 matches they would be better off coming against Crawley & Exeter than against Orient & Huddersfield.
Keeping our best players fit is key, rather than having several mediocre players to call upon. That’ll be the same for most clubs at this level, unless they spend a lot on their squads.
Both of those project us to finish 7th on around 73 points. Opta Analyst gives us a 35-40% chance of making it into the top six. Obviously this picture will change after every round of games, but isn't it great to be in the frame for a change?
The forthcoming game against Leyton Orient could seriously change our chances.