League One Relegation Watch 2024

LargeAddick

DamoNorthStand said:

It’s not about being positive, negative, happy clapper and doom monger.

It’s about being realistic with the facts in front of us.

Keep supporting the team, keep hoping for a miracle.

But the facts are that draws here and there won’t do it. 

We have 14 games to go…. We haven’t won in 15.

We would likely have to win nearly half of our remaining games to stay up.

I don’t think there is anything else to add.

Think having to win half is stretching it. 7 wins, 21 points, would be more a lot more than enough.

What I can't get my head around is 20 games in League One without a clean sheet. That's bonkers.

BigRedEvil

At least the end of season will be interesting. Thought we'd be in for another mid table nothingness type season 

Chris_from_Sidcup

I wouldn't quite call it a free pass as such because we're desperate for points but i think the majority of sensible Charlton fans would admit they probably don't expect much from the next 3 games.

With that in mind i think Jones can use these next 3 games to find out his best team and formation so we can then attack the games in March. Anything we get from the next 3 is a bonus but i think our season isn't going to be defined by those 3 games, but instead it's all on the run of games in March.

Northampton A, Cheltenham A, Carlisle H, Fleetwood A, Wigan H and Exeter A. 4 away out of 6 and probably going to have to get at least 12 points from those to have a chance of staying up.

Lewis Coaches

Think our first win will not come until we play Carlisle at home. By which time we will be well a drift. Any one who is banking on Aneke to stay fit to end of season and be our saving grace is dreaming.

Sorry .

SOTF

Based on the previous 3 years, we need 48 points to stay up. 

I think we’ll need 6 wins or 5 wins and a few draws.

March is a huge month for us as looking at the fixtures, it’s where I see most of the 16-18 points coming from to give us a chance.

MrOneLung

oh for the glory days of finishing 13th and being Champions of the bottom half

swordfish

Would relegation prove terminal?

 I doubt it. We have multiple owners who may have been sold a dream, but they're having a rude awakening and will more likely to lose faith in the people running the project than the project itself. Can't see them all bailing. Enough big players amongst them looking enviously at Wrexham, whose success is doing us a favour in that regard btw because  it will only steel their resolve to make a success of us given our potential.

We aren't talking about people who can't afford to do what is needed to turn this ship around, I'm expecting them to fund the short term financial hit if it happens.

Relegation would not be consigning  ourselves to oblivion, or 'the end of the world is nigh' for me.

ShootersHillGuru

I’m actually expecting relegation now and I think that provided the owners don’t pull the plug which I think is completely unlikely then Jones will get us back up. He’ll need financial support of course but I’m expecting he’ll get that. More than one season in league two is unthinkable.

soapboxsam

The saddest thing heard last night was a little girl saying to her Father:

"What's a tunnel Jump Daddy"

It breaks your 💔😢

DamoNorthStand

swordfish said:

Would relegation prove terminal?

 I doubt it. We have multiple owners who may have been sold a dream, but they're having a rude awakening and will more likely to lose faith in the people running the project than the project itself. Can't see them all bailing. Enough big players amongst them looking enviously at Wrexham, whose success is doing us a favour in that regard btw because  it will only steel their resolve to make a success of us given our potential.

We aren't talking about people who can't afford to do what is needed to turn this ship around, I'm expecting them to fund the short term financial hit if it happens.

Relegation would not be consigning  ourselves to oblivion, or 'the end of the world is nigh' for me.

Will Ferrell New CEO confirmed.

DamoNorthStand

swordfish said:

Would relegation prove terminal?

 I doubt it. We have multiple owners who may have been sold a dream, but they're having a rude awakening and will more likely to lose faith in the people running the project than the project itself. Can't see them all bailing. Enough big players amongst them looking enviously at Wrexham, whose success is doing us a favour in that regard btw because  it will only steel their resolve to make a success of us given our potential.

We aren't talking about people who can't afford to do what is needed to turn this ship around, I'm expecting them to fund the short term financial hit if it happens.

Relegation would not be consigning  ourselves to oblivion, or 'the end of the world is nigh' for me.

I think you need to consider FFP in all of this. NJ will be on very big money for league 2, as would Coventry, REG etc. Its the drop in revenue combined with the outgoings we have that I can't get the maths to work for.

Certainly if we don't go straight back up (and even if we do) I think FFP is a serious consideration on the horizon.

J BLOCK

swordfish said:

Would relegation prove terminal?

 I doubt it. We have multiple owners who may have been sold a dream, but they're having a rude awakening and will more likely to lose faith in the people running the project than the project itself. Can't see them all bailing. Enough big players amongst them looking enviously at Wrexham, whose success is doing us a favour in that regard btw because  it will only steel their resolve to make a success of us given our potential.

We aren't talking about people who can't afford to do what is needed to turn this ship around, I'm expecting them to fund the short term financial hit if it happens.

Relegation would not be consigning  ourselves to oblivion, or 'the end of the world is nigh' for me.

This is where i'm at. 

They've put too much money in to walk away. 

swordfish

DamoNorthStand said:

swordfish said:

Would relegation prove terminal?

 I doubt it. We have multiple owners who may have been sold a dream, but they're having a rude awakening and will more likely to lose faith in the people running the project than the project itself. Can't see them all bailing. Enough big players amongst them looking enviously at Wrexham, whose success is doing us a favour in that regard btw because  it will only steel their resolve to make a success of us given our potential.

We aren't talking about people who can't afford to do what is needed to turn this ship around, I'm expecting them to fund the short term financial hit if it happens.

Relegation would not be consigning  ourselves to oblivion, or 'the end of the world is nigh' for me.

I think you need to consider FFP in all of this. NJ will be on very big money for league 2, as would Coventry, REG etc. Its the drop in revenue combined with the outgoings we have that I can't get the maths to work for.

Certainly if we don't go straight back up (and even if we do) I think FFP is a serious consideration on the horizon.

If an investor puts in £1 either as equity or as a donation, it counts as revenue for FFP calculation purposes, meaning 60p of it can be spent on on wages. So they big question is how much are the owners prepared to inject as equity to make up for the revenue shortfall you correctly point to? Ditching over paid underperforming players, if we can, will be no great loss to us either.

MrOneLung

Should the worst happen and we go down, I actually wouldn't be surprised if our attendance goes up after the initial season ticket malaise

You would expect a hell of a lot more wins, bringing the fans back as we push for promotion

hezzla

MrOneLung said:

Should the worst happen and we go down, I actually wouldn't be surprised if our attendance goes up after the initial season ticket malaise

You would expect a hell of a lot more wins, bringing the fans back as we push for promotion

This was very much the feeling in August 2007...

ElfsborgAddick

J BLOCK said:

swordfish said:

Would relegation prove terminal?

 I doubt it. We have multiple owners who may have been sold a dream, but they're having a rude awakening and will more likely to lose faith in the people running the project than the project itself. Can't see them all bailing. Enough big players amongst them looking enviously at Wrexham, whose success is doing us a favour in that regard btw because  it will only steel their resolve to make a success of us given our potential.

We aren't talking about people who can't afford to do what is needed to turn this ship around, I'm expecting them to fund the short term financial hit if it happens.

Relegation would not be consigning  ourselves to oblivion, or 'the end of the world is nigh' for me.

This is where i'm at. 

They've put too much money in to walk away. 

We get relegated and Mary, Mungo and Midge will possibly be shown the door and the decks are cleared.

Chris_from_Sidcup

DamoNorthStand said:

swordfish said:

Would relegation prove terminal?

 I doubt it. We have multiple owners who may have been sold a dream, but they're having a rude awakening and will more likely to lose faith in the people running the project than the project itself. Can't see them all bailing. Enough big players amongst them looking enviously at Wrexham, whose success is doing us a favour in that regard btw because  it will only steel their resolve to make a success of us given our potential.

We aren't talking about people who can't afford to do what is needed to turn this ship around, I'm expecting them to fund the short term financial hit if it happens.

Relegation would not be consigning  ourselves to oblivion, or 'the end of the world is nigh' for me.

I think you need to consider FFP in all of this. NJ will be on very big money for league 2, as would Coventry, REG etc. Its the drop in revenue combined with the outgoings we have that I can't get the maths to work for.

Certainly if we don't go straight back up (and even if we do) I think FFP is a serious consideration on the horizon.

What is the EFL loss limit and subsequent punishment for failing FFP? Didn't Reading fail it and only get deducted 6 points?

If that's the case i wouldn't worry too much about 6 points as we'll have run away with league two by then getting 100 points.

Chris_from_Sidcup

ShootersHillGuru said:

I’m actually expecting relegation now and I think that provided the owners don’t pull the plug which I think is completely unlikely then Jones will get us back up. He’ll need financial support of course but I’m expecting he’ll get that. More than one season in league two is unthinkable.

Some of us probably said this when we came down to league one 4 years ago.

ValleyBen

I don't believe we will end up going down but I cannot be relaxed about it, as very wary of us sleepwalking in to being an Oldham. 

I would not assume we would automatically be a decent League 2 team. 

jams

We are leaving it very late and the pressure will really be on after the next three games. In those high pressure situations we usually fold, I think that is more likely than we go on a barnstorming run

Briston_Addick

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

DamoNorthStand said:

swordfish said:

Would relegation prove terminal?

 I doubt it. We have multiple owners who may have been sold a dream, but they're having a rude awakening and will more likely to lose faith in the people running the project than the project itself. Can't see them all bailing. Enough big players amongst them looking enviously at Wrexham, whose success is doing us a favour in that regard btw because  it will only steel their resolve to make a success of us given our potential.

We aren't talking about people who can't afford to do what is needed to turn this ship around, I'm expecting them to fund the short term financial hit if it happens.

Relegation would not be consigning  ourselves to oblivion, or 'the end of the world is nigh' for me.

I think you need to consider FFP in all of this. NJ will be on very big money for league 2, as would Coventry, REG etc. Its the drop in revenue combined with the outgoings we have that I can't get the maths to work for.

Certainly if we don't go straight back up (and even if we do) I think FFP is a serious consideration on the horizon.

What is the EFL loss limit and subsequent punishment for failing FFP? Didn't Reading fail it and only get deducted 6 points?

If that's the case i wouldn't worry too much about 6 points as we'll have run away with league two by then getting 100 points.

6 point penalty for Reading?

In that case expect us to get 25-30 points and miss a play-off spot by a point.

golfaddick

MrOneLung said:

Should the worst happen and we go down, I actually wouldn't be surprised if our attendance goes up after the initial season ticket malaise

You would expect a hell of a lot more wins, bringing the fans back as we push for promotion

Like when we got relegated to League 1 in 2020 you mean 🙄.

The only increase will be from the visiting fans.....chance to see their team play at a (once) Premier League stadium and a weekend in the capital.

Siv_in_Norfolk

I expect us to win one of the next three - Bolton, Pompey, Derby 

Braziliance

I visit a lot of other fans forums, always have done as I like to see other fans perception of us. 

Hardly anyone outside Chartlon thinks we will face the drop. It's all just 'they have too much to stay up' etc 

I saw a Lincoln fan say 'are there really 4 sides Charlton are worse than?' 

So it seems the situation hasn't quite processed with other fans yet. I'll be honest, even saying and imagining us in League 2 doesn't look right. 

I think we may be gone, as I can't see us winning more than 2 in a row, and that's what it will probably take. I would like to think we could beat Carlisle, Fleetwood and Cheltenham all in a row, which would probably put this nightmare of a season to bed, I just don't see it though.

My main concern about relegation, other than the obvious things such as finances and fan retention, would be if Jones would stay. I imagine he has a relegation clause in that contract? 

iaitch

Braziliance said:

I visit a lot of other fans forums, always have done as I like to see other fans perception of us. 

Hardly anyone outside Chartlon thinks we will face the drop. It's all just 'they have too much to stay up' etc 

I saw a Lincoln fan say 'are there really 4 sides Charlton are worse than?' 

So it seems the situation hasn't quite processed with other fans yet. I'll be honest, even saying and imagining us in League 2 doesn't look right. 

I think we may be gone, as I can't see us winning more than 2 in a row, and that's what it will probably take. I would like to think we could beat Carlisle, Fleetwood and Cheltenham all in a row, which would probably put this nightmare of a season to bed, I just don't see it though.

My main concern about relegation, other than the obvious things such as finances and fan retention, would be if Jones would stay. I imagine he has a relegation clause in that contract? 

Yes he gets £1m if he gets us relegated.

ElfsborgAddick

Braziliance said:

I visit a lot of other fans forums, always have done as I like to see other fans perception of us. 

Hardly anyone outside Chartlon thinks we will face the drop. It's all just 'they have too much to stay up' etc 

I saw a Lincoln fan say 'are there really 4 sides Charlton are worse than?' 

So it seems the situation hasn't quite processed with other fans yet. I'll be honest, even saying and imagining us in League 2 doesn't look right. 

I think we may be gone, as I can't see us winning more than 2 in a row, and that's what it will probably take. I would like to think we could beat Carlisle, Fleetwood and Cheltenham all in a row, which would probably put this nightmare of a season to bed, I just don't see it though.

My main concern about relegation, other than the obvious things such as finances and fan retention, would be if Jones would stay. I imagine he has a relegation clause in that contract? 

Not having won a game in 14 matches, to win three in a row would be unlikely.
At our rate we could struggle to win three more games this season.

ElfsborgAddick

4 of our next 5 games are away, we're doomed.

SELR_addicks

17	Cambridge United	31	9	9	13	26	38	-12	36
18	Burton Albion	32	9	9	14	27	40	-13	36
19	Shrewsbury Town	33	10	6	17	23	43	-20	36
20	Charlton Athletic	33	7	12	14	44	49	-5	33
21	Port Vale	30	8	8	14	30	45	-15	32
22	Cheltenham Town	31	8	6	17	24	40	-16	30
23	Fleetwood Town	33	6	9	18	32	53	-21	27
24	Carlisle United	32	4	9	19	26	51	-25	21

Games today: 

Bolton v Charlton
Carlisle v Cambridge
Cheltenham v Port Vale
Fleetwood v Barnsley
Leyton Orient v Burton
Shrewsbury v Wigan

se9addick

We’re in the relegation zone now

fenaddick

se9addick said:

We’re in the relegation zone now

Back up to 18th now though