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Grand National 2024

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  • edited April 13
    To chuck a possible spanner in the works (in the less offensive sense of the word), an odd discrepancy in weather forecast.
    Met Office showing fair chance of heavy showers but every other source I look at (app / accuweather / BBC) saying max 50% chance at 9 and again at the Off time at 4pm and only 1.3mm if it comes.
    On the satellite images, there are heavy showers knocking around north Wales but I guess it's down to how the different agencies think they'll track.
    Whatever happens I'm happy to just back my model with Kitty's on the team and not play weatherman.
    Would only help the others if it pisses down.
    WhoTF knows?

  • Chambard is a Non Runner - not sure why.
    Wondering if Venetia thinks the ground has dried up too much.
    Unfortunately he was lame this morning.
  • edited April 13
    I'm not a backer myself (though, as previously mentioned, unsurprisingly my model does make him a "Big Run No Cigar" threat) but, with the ground drying, 8/1 (7 places) with BetFred for Corach Rambler looks attractive e/w value if you're so inclined.
    I know the picture is varied, but Gerri Colombe certainly showed no ill effects from the Gold Cup.

    And I still can't quite understand how Roi Mage remains unloved at 50s.
    True, he's effectively shorter for place only and perhaps at 12 years old a win is quite a stretch on this ground but it's all relative. Some of those shortening have me scratching my head.
  • Here are my selections for today at Aintree and Chepstow done as a Heinz-:

    14.15 - Che - Bolsover Bill 7/2
    14.30 - Ain - King of Ryhope 4/1
    14.50 - Che - King of Brazil 5/2
    15.05 - Ain - Flooring Porter 4/1
    15.32 - Che - Lady Balko 5/2
    16.00 - Ain - Limmerick Lace 17/2



  • Really enjoyed ladies day yesterday and wow so the ladies scrub up well. Always helps when you get a few winners/ places so was unusually up on the day. Don’t expect the same today but my picks are:-
    1.20 Cuthbert Dibble e/w
    1.55 Brighterdaysahead win Esprit du Poitier e/w
    2.30 Forward Plan e/w
    3.05 Flooring Porter w
    4.00 Galia Des Liteaux & Mahler Mission e/w’s
    5.00 Foundafifty w and Master Chewy e/w
    5.35 Mister Meggit w


  • edited April 13
    Thanks again Peanuts - absolute legend.

    My slip for today - all EW
    Glengoully
    I am Maximus
    Roi Mage
    Kittys Light

    Mrs M
    Run Wild Fred Vanillier
    Meeting of the Waters
    Limerick Lace

    Good luck all, and above all is the hope that all the horses and jockeys come back safely.


  • Thanks @PeanutsMolloy a great thread as ever. I have a small amount on each of your 7. Hoping the luck is better this year, but whatever will make for an exciting race. 
  • Thread of the year yet again.
    Staggering the time you commit to your model Peanuts.
    im on mr incredible and glenguily ew but sincerely hope Mrs Peanuts has the holiday brochures out at 4:30 this afternoon.
  • edited April 13
    AND Elliott does indeed take one out.
    Run Wild Fred is a NR.
    I reckon we all saw that one coming.
  • edited April 13
    Three Mullins horses have been heavily backed on Betfair (although it's a moot point as to whether Betfair are following the bookies' lead or vice versa):

    I Am Maximus - 10.0 to 7.4
    Mr Incredible - 20.0 to 15.0
    Capodanno - 60.0 to 27.0 

    Willie Mullins spoke particularly  glowingly about Capodanno in an interview with Matt Chapman. 
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  • Thanks @PeanutsMolloy a great thread as ever. I have a small amount on each of your 7. Hoping the luck is better this year, but whatever will make for an exciting race. 
    Thread of the year yet again.
    Staggering the time you commit to your model Peanuts.
    im on mr incredible and glenguily ew but sincerely hope Mrs Peanuts has the holiday brochures out at 4:30 this afternoon.
    Thanks Gents
    Much appreciate the comments and glad you enjoy it.
    Fingers crossed.
  • edited April 13
    Aintree seems to have dodged anything but a sprinkle so far.
    Met Office now indicating:

    11am - Light Rain
    12 Noon - Heavy Rain
    1pm - Cloudy
    2pm - Sunny Intervals
    3pm - Sunny Intervals
    4pm - Cloudy

    Nassalam's seriously unloved at 66s (100s Betfair win) - understandable with the drying ground, except that Coko Beach and Delta Work remain at 20~25.

    If that rain hits at noon !!
  • Not following racing as much these days but sticking with my theory of younger unexposed horses being ones to go with in this race now. Thought Adamantly Chosen was a big price, and didn't mind Meetingofthewaters or The Goffer (though trip probably an issue for the latter!)
  • edited April 13
    Not following racing as much these days but sticking with my theory of younger unexposed horses being ones to go with in this race now. Thought Adamantly Chosen was a big price, and didn't mind Meetingofthewaters or The Goffer (though trip probably an issue for the latter!)
    Totally agree @PolzeathNick the race suits them now, in contrast to pre 2013.
    I'm pretty sure you were the original Walk In The Mill fancier at wild prices the season before his Becher win and then GN 4th - I think he got a late niggle and was sadly scratched.
    A brilliant spot and the only offspring of Walk In The Park to run in a GN ....... until Limerick Lace this year.
    Silly short price but she's a tough as nails. Sounds very much like JPs got his money down.
  • Yeah she was high on list too. Not sure about mares for this put me off but the stronger programme for them now probably means it shouldn't!
  • It's about time a mare won again. Nickel Coin the last winner in 1951 and this year a couple with fair chances including Limerick Lace which was bred by JP's wife. 
  • Don't understand why Nassalam is so long, can get 100s on the exchange and I think will be right up there. Gone for Nassalam and Farouk Dalene e/w and i am maximus straight win
  • If it's any help, Landfill is my prediction for this afternoon.

    Sorry if its a rubbish tip.

    Pirates and the Monkey Rimshot gif  rmovies
  • Day 3
    1.20 black bamboo 
           Bold endeavour 
    1.55 brighterdaysahead
    2.30 twig 
             Sam brown 
    3.05 flooring Porter 
             Buddy one 
    4.00 Nassalam 
             Farouk dalene
             Latenightpass
             Chemical energy 
             I am maximus 
    5.00 etalon 
    5.35 step out ew 
             Mister meggitt
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  • Is the Betfred offer of 7 places (1/5th place) the best out there?
  • meldrew66 said:
    Is the Betfred offer of 7 places (1/5th place) the best out there?
    Betfred, Betway and Livescore bet are all offering 7 places online but not in shops
  • edited April 13
    meldrew66 said:
    Is the Betfred offer of 7 places (1/5th place) the best out there?
    Betfred, Betway and Livescore bet are all offering 7 places online but not in shops
    Thanks. In which case my bets are with Betfred (7 places):

    I am Maximus £30 e/w @ 6-1
    Roi Mage £10 e/w @ 50-1
    Farouk D’alene £10 e/w @ 100-1

    Good luck everyone and, of course, massive thanks to Peanuts for another interesting,impressive and fun thread.

  • edited April 13
    meldrew66 said:
    Is the Betfred offer of 7 places (1/5th place) the best out there?
    Fitzdares are offering 7 places at 1/5 odds but at reduced price from their 6 places standard terms. Is Fred just offering 7 places full stop? If so, how do his prices compare?

    My lot are offering up to 10 places, but at steadily reducing odds e.g. Corach Rambler 17/2 for the standard 6 places reducing steadily down to 11/2 for 10 places.
  • Three Mullins horses have been heavily backed on Betfair (although it's a moot point as to whether Betfair are following the bookies' lead or vice versa):

    I Am Maximus - 10.0 to 7.4
    Mr Incredible - 20.0 to 15.0
    Capodanno - 60.0 to 27.0 

    Willie Mullins spoke particularly  glowingly about Capodanno in an interview with Matt Chapman. 

    Being backed heavily at fixed odds as well.
  • Met Office "Heavy Rain" threat comes to nought at Aintree.
    Some light rain early and around mid-day, nowt likely to set the ground back again.
  • I'm sticking with @PeanutsMolloy and his magnificent analysis.

    Let's hope for a Charlton win together with a successful National.

    Done 10 places with Bob on Farouk D'Alene, Roi Mage and Nassalam given the probable soft to heavy nature of the ground.

  • My slightly more confident e/w picks for tomorrow. 
    I've cashed out on Nassalam and gone with Latenightpass instead. Much better value methinks. My other two picks - Roi Mage and Adamantly Chosen.
    Hoping for a better result than yesterday. Changed my mind re Arizona Cardinal which really pissed me off. Wished I hadn't listened to Mick Fitzgerald tipping Your Darling!
    Hoping lightening doesn't strike twice by abandoning Nassalam. 
    Best of luck today Addicks punters

    Off to a good start, though Ile Atlantique disappointing in terms of my placepot. 
  • edited April 13
    LenGlover said:
    I'm sticking with @PeanutsMolloy and his magnificent analysis.

    Let's hope for a Charlton win together with a successful National.

    Done 10 places with Bob on Farouk D'Alene, Roi Mage and Nassalam given the probable soft to heavy nature of the ground.
    Cheers for your kind comments @LenGlover
    Much appreciated.
    I know I sound like a broken record but I'm still amazed that Roi Mage is still 66/1 e/w - softer than last year, jumped it beautifully to be an always-handy and not-stopping 7th. Now has his preferred partner on board and a 2lb lower mark. 14L margin to Corach who was good for maybe 5L further but is up 13lb in mark.
    Just his age presumably but that matters much less on softer ground.
    Absolute no brainer. And backing him in the Places market is the best value saver available IMHO.
    Now the Betfair Top10 market's got some liquidity, having cleared the decks of my Attritional Ground, off-piste bets late yesterday, I've gone back in again this morning with Farouk and Nassalam for extended places as a hedge in case it pisses down - there's still a chance later, before Off time. Better prices than Bet365 on these unfancied ones.
    I think people forget that Nassalam has good form over these fences in a Grand Sefton. Yes he's got too high a mark but so too has Coko Beach and, unlike Coko, there's no doubting his stamina.
    He's not one of my model's picks but he's at daft prices now and well capable of a minor place. 
    All the best.

  • Thanks as always for a great thread Peanuts - best of luck to your magnificent seven…
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