Yes. It also applies to Oddschecker greyhound site. No way am I paying a tenner a month for information I can access for free elsewhere. Bye bye Oddschecker.
No wonder Limerick Lace continues to be supported her full brother's win in the opener. That is some broodmare that JP and Mrs JP have and Walk In The Park looks the perfect mate. Mark Walsh must be champing at the bit for tomorrow.
This Topham will be a interesting comparison with that run in 2018, when Going Stick reading in the morning was 3.9 (3.6 this morning) and official going was Heavy (Soft places). Today Soft(Hvy places)
Time last year was 5m50.6s (30.6 secs slow of std).
It will be quicker than yesterday's Foxhunters - horses with less on their back, pro jocks and generally better horses -but also because the ground has dried up somewhat - BUT HOW MUCH?
Good luck @Addick Addict I have a modest e/w interest. I take it you've piled in?
For my sins, I have - both as a single and an E/W double with Mr Incredible. Please do blame me if it doesn't run a race!
I'm not sure whether it emptied out or was just outpaced but, whichever it was, it should have run tomorrow instead. But then I would say that wouldn't I !!!!
Good luck @Addick Addict I have a modest e/w interest. I take it you've piled in?
For my sins, I have - both as a single and an E/W double with Mr Incredible. Please do blame me if it doesn't run a race!
I'm not sure whether it emptied out or was just outpaced but, whichever it was, it should have run tomorrow instead. But then I would say that wouldn't I !!!!
Outpaced I'd say. It looked like he lost his action a bit before the last - they'd already sped away from him. Maybe the jock was just felt he needed steadying before the fence as he was obviously beaten. I'd say the Becher is his race. Thought he jumped beautifully and the fact he stood up strong when Shaem Uparry barged into him mid-air down the run to Bechers showed he has the balance to cope with these fences. Seemed to enjoy it. I hope Sandy tries him again next December.
This Topham will be a interesting comparison with that run in 2018, when Going Stick reading in the morning was 3.9 (3.6 this morning) and official going was Heavy (Soft places). Today Soft(Hvy places)
Time last year was 5m50.6s (30.6 secs slow of std).
It will be quicker than yesterday's Foxhunters - horses with less on their back, pro jocks and generally better horses -but also because the ground has dried up somewhat - BUT HOW MUCH?
Time 5m42.9s (22.9s slow of standard) 17 of the 24 finished
Soft (Heavy places) my arse. This is already riding like true Soft.
Some formerly eminent jocks were talking a few days ago about a 10min+ GN like 2001. That won't happen unless there is material rain tomorrow. In fact, if it continues dry, it will definitely be quicker than 2018's 9m40s (36 secs slow - officially Hvy(Soft)) and probably quicker than 2016's 9m29s (25s slow - Sft(Hvy)). Whatever the official going, if it continues to be dry, tomorrow will be riding dead for sure but like Soft(GS) IMHO.
Did a Combination Tricast (I Am Maximus, Mr Inc & Limerick Lace) this morning. A modest stake to go for the jugular. Just in time. Price has absolutely imploded this afternoon with I Am Max vying for fav and LL now 3rd fav. Fuck Reds and Blues. They'll paint Liverpool Green and Gold if JP scoops the big one as well. And I'll go an help them !!
I know you posted your fancies on P9 PM, but does this ground change affect your predictions? Any chance of a full and final shout, or are your thoughts highlighted on P9 absolute? Much appriciated.
Times may be difficult to assess tomorrow with the standing start and new siting of the first fence. However it is clear that we have been hoodwinked by the weather forecasters although that could still change. I reckon good/soft or soft.
I know you posted your fancies on P9 PM, but does this ground change affect your predictions? Any chance of a full and final shout, or are your thoughts highlighted on P9 absolute? Much appriciated.
Absolutely no change on:
I Am Maxmimus Mr Incredible Limerick Lace Roi Mage
Those are the order in which I would back them.
IF it rides more like GS (I doubt it myself, I think it will ride like a mix of Soft and GS but which will be predominant?), then:
NEGATIVES:
Galia wants it as soft as possible - if it dries out to GS it won't help. I've got her at 50s and won't cash out.
Glengouly probably would prefer it Soft as well and I have my doubts about the quality of his key piece of form. I might cash him out.
Pace will put more pressure on Farouk's jumping. Especially with more finishers likely, I wouldn't be so confident about him finishing Top 10.
Those Attritional Bets (doubles with Nassalam, Delta Work and Coko Beach) also look far less appealing and I could cash those out.
POSITIVES:
The big one is Kitty's Light. If there was "Good" in the going (the true going, not the Official), especially if it started with "Good" (i.e. Good to Soft (Soft places), he is back in play IMHO as a Winning Candidate. I'd have to go back in e/w, at least now for 6 places
The likes of Chemical Energy (50/1 now) could also come back into play as a borderline place candidate.
Need to mull this over some more but those are the key sensitivities.
A "full and final" shout will have to wait to the morning but those top 4 are 100% definite.
OK, well I don't have to wait until morning to make my first decision.
IMHO there is now a <5% chance of this being an attritional GN (in which there are barely 10 finishers) BUT there is far higher chance of there being a material element of Good-to-Soft to the true going tomorrow. I don't care what the Official bullshit is.
My model (which is ground-agnostic - it's impossible to model all runners' definitive ground requirements now that so many young chases are contenders) reckons Kitty's Light has got a Winning Profile and I cashed out because it appeared near certain a few days ago that the ground would be at best Soft.
I've been burnt before when using my "judgement" to second guess my model and omit a Winning candidate (2018 Tiger Roll and Bless The Wings and 2019 Tiger AGAIN!!) and I'd rather be wrong in missing Delta Work, Coko Beach and Nassalam go well than fuck it up again and not be on Kitty's and see him handle the ground to be in the mix at the business end.
So I've cashed out my Attritional Bets - combination of Top 5 and Top 10 doubles on Delta Work, Coko Beach and Nassalam - and gone back in with KITTY'S LIGHT e/w 6 places at 12/1. Painful with the fall in price but 6 places is a tiny crumb of comfort Mulling over the lesser bets but will definitely be keeping Galia Des Liteaux. Again, the model rates her as one of the solid Place candidates, she has handled GS perfectly well in top company and it would be nuts to cash out a 50/1 slip. I may pair back the overweight place portion though.
Again, the model rates Glengouly - I'll keep him.
But may switch my interest in Farouk D'alene to Chemical Energy (who much prefers a decent surface but handled the Soft ground in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2023 festival well enough when 2nd to Gaillard Du Mesnil).
Comments
Bye bye Oddschecker.
Best odds with Betfred.
That is some broodmare that JP and Mrs JP have and Walk In The Park looks the perfect mate.
Mark Walsh must be champing at the bit for tomorrow.
save some for tomorrow!!
I have a modest e/w interest. I take it you've piled in?
For my sins, I have - both as a single and an E/W double with Mr Incredible. Please do blame me if it doesn't run a race!
Time last year was 5m50.6s (30.6 secs slow of std).
It will be quicker than yesterday's Foxhunters - horses with less on their back, pro jocks and generally better horses -but also because the ground has dried up somewhat - BUT HOW MUCH?
I'm definitely not watching the Grand National now.
I'll eat my dinner instead.
I'd say the Becher is his race. Thought he jumped beautifully and the fact he stood up strong when Shaem Uparry barged into him mid-air down the run to Bechers showed he has the balance to cope with these fences. Seemed to enjoy it.
I hope Sandy tries him again next December.
17 of the 24 finished
Soft (Heavy places) my arse. This is already riding like true Soft.
Some formerly eminent jocks were talking a few days ago about a 10min+ GN like 2001. That won't happen unless there is material rain tomorrow.
In fact, if it continues dry, it will definitely be quicker than 2018's 9m40s (36 secs slow - officially Hvy(Soft)) and probably quicker than 2016's 9m29s (25s slow - Sft(Hvy)).
Whatever the official going, if it continues to be dry, tomorrow will be riding dead for sure but like Soft(GS) IMHO.
A modest stake to go for the jugular.
Just in time. Price has absolutely imploded this afternoon with I Am Max vying for fav and LL now 3rd fav.
Fuck Reds and Blues. They'll paint Liverpool Green and Gold if JP scoops the big one as well. And I'll go an help them !!
Any chance of a full and final shout, or are your thoughts highlighted on P9 absolute?
Much appriciated.
However it is clear that we have been hoodwinked by the weather forecasters although that could still change. I reckon good/soft or soft.
I Am Maxmimus
Mr Incredible
Limerick Lace
Roi Mage
Those are the order in which I would back them.
IF it rides more like GS (I doubt it myself, I think it will ride like a mix of Soft and GS but which will be predominant?), then:
NEGATIVES:
- Galia wants it as soft as possible - if it dries out to GS it won't help. I've got her at 50s and won't cash out.
- Glengouly probably would prefer it Soft as well and I have my doubts about the quality of his key piece of form. I might cash him out.
- Pace will put more pressure on Farouk's jumping. Especially with more finishers likely, I wouldn't be so confident about him finishing Top 10.
- Those Attritional Bets (doubles with Nassalam, Delta Work and Coko Beach) also look far less appealing and I could cash those out.
POSITIVES:- The big one is Kitty's Light. If there was "Good" in the going (the true going, not the Official), especially if it started with "Good" (i.e. Good to Soft (Soft places), he is back in play IMHO as a Winning Candidate. I'd have to go back in e/w, at least now for 6 places
- The likes of Chemical Energy (50/1 now) could also come back into play as a borderline place candidate.
Need to mull this over some more but those are the key sensitivities.A "full and final" shout will have to wait to the morning but those top 4 are 100% definite.
IMHO there is now a <5% chance of this being an attritional GN (in which there are barely 10 finishers) BUT there is far higher chance of there being a material element of Good-to-Soft to the true going tomorrow. I don't care what the Official bullshit is.
My model (which is ground-agnostic - it's impossible to model all runners' definitive ground requirements now that so many young chases are contenders) reckons Kitty's Light has got a Winning Profile and I cashed out because it appeared near certain a few days ago that the ground would be at best Soft.
I've been burnt before when using my "judgement" to second guess my model and omit a Winning candidate (2018 Tiger Roll and Bless The Wings and 2019 Tiger AGAIN!!) and I'd rather be wrong in missing Delta Work, Coko Beach and Nassalam go well than fuck it up again and not be on Kitty's and see him handle the ground to be in the mix at the business end.
So I've cashed out my Attritional Bets - combination of Top 5 and Top 10 doubles on Delta Work, Coko Beach and Nassalam - and gone back in with KITTY'S LIGHT e/w 6 places at 12/1. Painful with the fall in price but 6 places is a tiny crumb of comfort
Mulling over the lesser bets but will definitely be keeping Galia Des Liteaux. Again, the model rates her as one of the solid Place candidates, she has handled GS perfectly well in top company and it would be nuts to cash out a 50/1 slip. I may pair back the overweight place portion though.
Again, the model rates Glengouly - I'll keep him.
But may switch my interest in Farouk D'alene to Chemical Energy (who much prefers a decent surface but handled the Soft ground in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2023 festival well enough when 2nd to Gaillard Du Mesnil).
Will sleep on that one.