Of course he could come a cropper BUT: - slow ground helps horses with jumping fallibilities - the GN fences are much more forgiving than people think. Tiger Roll was considered not the best of jumpers. - his record is his record, despite all You pays ya money, you takes ya choice. At 8/1 I think he’s lousy value, but so too is Corach Rambler IMHO and several other market fancies. But I’m very happy to have him at 25s and ecstatic at the weather.
National Course is Heavy (Soft places) - heaviest 6th~12th fences but now also from run to Chair to beyond Water Jump and from start to 3rd fence
Going Stick 2.9 at 7.45am
Clerk of the Course reports "Just shy of 10mm yesterday.... We're due a bit more rain 4-6mm on Wednesday morning but then that's the worst of it out of the way. The forecast is for some rain 1-3mm on Thursday early am."
My guess is it will be stamina-sapping on Saturday (probably officially Soft) and possibly fewer than 10 finishers and stretched out. But I suspect more than the 6 finishers we had in 1995 and 1998. Prize money does go down to 10th (albeit <£7k for 7th on) and, after last year, jockies will once again be read the riot act about going steady.
Some former eminent jockies have been suggesting in recent days that it'll be like 2001 again (when only 2 finished without remounting).
Frankly, unless there’s heavy or persistent showers on the day (not forecast), I think that's baloney.
Differences, aside from 6 fewer runners than in 2001 :
2f shorter trip
smaller fences
Most importantly, provision for loose horses to leave the track
Nonetheless, it's worth examining the CVs of the 6 that completed in each of the 1995 and 1998 GNs:
1995:
1st Miinnehoma (16/1) - no prev fence exp /
placed 29f Welsh GN on Sft(= furthest prior trip
& furthest on Soft)
2nd (1L) Just So (20/1) - 6th 28L GN on GS / x3
winner or near-misser at 34.5f incl on Soft(=
furthest prior trip on Soft)
3rd (21L) Moorcroft Boy (5/1 F) - no fence exp /
x2 winner or n-m at 32.5f on Soft & Hvy(=
furthest prior trip & furthest on Hvy)
4th (46L) Ebony Jane (25/1) - no fence exp /
winner Irish GN & placed in IGN on Soft just 5 days
prior to Aintree (= furthest prior trip & furthest on Soft)
5th (55L) Fiddlers Pike (100/1) - no fence exp
/ unplaced at 34f on Good but x1 win & 1 place in 3 runs at 29f
on Hvy(= furthest prior trip on Sft/Hvy)
6th (85L) Roc De Prince (100/1) - 17th 67L GN on
GS / winner at 4m on Hvy(= furthest prior trip on
Sft/Hvy)
1998:
1st Earth Summit (7/1 F) - no fence exp / won
33f Sc Nat on Good, won & 2nd in 4
runs 29f on Hvy(= furthest prior trip & furthest
on Hvy)
2nd (11L) Suny Bay (11/1) - 2nd GN on Good / PU
WGN furthest trip on Soft BUT record all dists on Sft/Hvy:
100111F110 (60% win rate)
3rd (41L) Samlee (8/1) - won Becher GS /
unplaced 34f Good but near-miss & place from 3 at 33f+ all on Good /
placed WGN 29f Sft (= furthest prior trip on Sft)
4th (42L) St Mellion Fairway (20/1) - no fence exp
/ unplaced x2 at 4m Good & Hvy, placed 30f on Soft - BUT 95%
completion rate (19/20) & record all dists on Sft & Hvy: 21012111
(63% win rate)
5th (69L) Gimme Five (25/1) - no fence exp / never
raced 26f+ / 1 win, 1 place from 5 runs at 24f on Hvy - 96% completion rate
(25/26)
6th (99L) Killeshin (25/1) - 7th 46L GN Good / won
34.5f GS but unplaced 34.5f on Soft
To summarise - positives to look for:
if run over the fences previously, run creditably
made frame at furthest trip on Soft or Heavy
50%+ win rate on Soft and Heavy
high (e.g. 95%+) completion rate from 20+ races
Aside from Suny Bay (12-00) all carried <11-00 BUT these were times when few runners had 11-00+ and many were out of the handicap. So be wary of writing of a runner simply because they've got a big weight.
Nassalam (obviously loves the ground and probably the trip) and Coko Beach (loves the course, loves Soft and Heavy) may be off too high a mark ordinarily to figure but, if there’s heavy attrition of runners and a modest pace, it wouldn’t shock if either/both made the frame despite big weights.
I've decided to give it a miss this year. Too many horses losing their lives. When I heard the owners and trainers blaming protesters the other year, it left a bad taste. I am not that wedded to the sport that I can overlook the truth because it suits me to.
I've decided to give it a miss this year. Too many horses losing their lives. When I heard the owners and trainers blaming protesters the other year, it left a bad taste. I am not that wedded to the sport that I can overlook the truth because it suits me to.
Despite the efforts of some, thankfully we're all free to express our opinion. Mine is they were right to blame the protestors for the mayhem (and at least 1 of the fatalities) that occurred last year.
I've decided to give it a miss this year. Too many horses losing their lives. When I heard the owners and trainers blaming protesters the other year, it left a bad taste. I am not that wedded to the sport that I can overlook the truth because it suits me to.
Despite the efforts of some, thankfully we're all free to express our opinion. Mine is they were right to blame the protestors for the mayhem (and at least 1 of the fatalities) that occurred last year.
I'm not saying it didn't play a part but they were painting themselves as being at the forefront of animal welfare when horses die when there are no protesters. Anyway, this is a yearly habit I will opt out of.
I've decided to give it a miss this year. Too many horses losing their lives. When I heard the owners and trainers blaming protesters the other year, it left a bad taste. I am not that wedded to the sport that I can overlook the truth because it suits me to.
Despite the efforts of some, thankfully we're all free to express our opinion. Mine is they were right to blame the protestors for the mayhem (and at least 1 of the fatalities) that occurred last year.
I'm not saying it didn't play a part but they were painting themselves as being at the forefront of animal welfare when horses die when there are no protesters. Anyway, this is a yearly habit I will opt out of.
The sad irony is they were not protesting about animal welfare. But fine, do as you wish.
Yes, I will. But I didn't say they were protesting about animal welfare so no sad irony at all. What I didn't like and commented on was the assertions of the Grand National community of how they were so into animal welfare. Anyway, I can make my decisions, you can make yours which is a principle I think we agree on.
Interesting piece by Tom Segal in the RP today, particularly about last December's ground at Aintree and the decompaction of the soil last summer (news to me). He's also right about horses with big weights. If anything, slow ground may help not hinder. Hmm ......
There hasn't been a lower reading anywhere in the country than the ones at Aintree for their last couple of meetings and the 2.4 for the fixture in December is as low as any I can ever remember. The reason given was that not only did it hammer down in the lead-up to racing, but also because of 'considerable decompaction of the ground over the summer'. Now I'm no agriculturalist, but my understanding of decompaction of the ground means that it's loosened up, which allows more rain in, hence the incredibly low GoingStick readings.
That was backed up by the time of the Becher Chase won by Chambard being a hair's breath away from being the slowest on record, and with more rain forecast on already testing ground, surely we are looking at a National that is going to run in over ten minutes.
So which horses will that suit? Common wisdom suggests that will suit horses with lower weights but personally, I think that is utter codswallop. In fact, I think it's the other way around and that the slower the horses go the easier it is for those with big weights because they don't have to overexert themselves and their natural ability shines through.
People often think back to the old days when it wasn't easy to win the National with a big weight but it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of those with over 11 stone ran in the race, and statistically they did a lot better than they should have. Also, the races I consider to be the biggest stamina tests of the year bar the Grand National, are the Welsh version and the Eider Chase at Newcastle. They are often run on heavy ground, yet three of the last eight Chepstow races have gone to horses at the top of the weights and the Eider nearly always goes to a horse carrying more than 11 stone.
Basically, most handicaps go to a horse better than their official rating and just because Corach Rambler or I Am Maximus are due to carry 11st 5lb, it wouldn't put me off one iota. Whether Corach really wants testing ground is a different matter and surprise, surprise, I reckon Willie Mullins is probably going to win it, although with which horse I'm not entirely sure.
I've decided to give it a miss this year. Too many horses losing their lives. When I heard the owners and trainers blaming protesters the other year, it left a bad taste. I am not that wedded to the sport that I can overlook the truth because it suits me to.
NATIONAL COURSE: unchanged Heavy (Soft places) - same stretches of Heavy: 6~12th fence, start to 3rd and The Chair through the water jump. GoingStick marginally higher at 3.2
Forecast: light showers on occasion today, largely dry, possibly scattered showers but sunny spells Friday and Saturday.
My best guess for Saturday's going is officially Soft but will likely ride more testing than that.
Even with 3 dry days in store, come Saturday the ground will still likely be stamina-sapping and it looks likely that this GN could be the most attritional for more than 20 years. If so it’s likely that, conservatively, at least half of the field will struggle to complete simply on stamina grounds. Add in the inevitable jumping casualties and it could be that no more than 12 are still standing at 2nd Bechers, with perhaps only 6~8 in with a winning chance.
In this scenario, IMHO this could be a race in which not only the trends evident in the last 10 GNs may take a holiday but there could be some interesting returns from Top 10 Finish (or, if truly attritional, even Top 5) bets, which are likely to be a bet that your horse simply completes in their own time, however far behind the winner.
The additional appeal of a Top 10 Finish bet is that it can be complementary to a book of e/w bets, of course. As singles, doubles, even triples, we can use them to shoot for the jackpot of filling 7 or 8 of the first 10 home and/or as a saver if the trends really do take a vacation.
Anticipating the pattern of an attritional race is a significant consideration because those still going at 2nd Bechers could contain runners who would struggle to get home (or to have stayed in touch to that point) on GS but who love testing ground. Best of all is if they also love the fences.
If and when the jockies realise they are one of only a handful still with a chance of making the frame, expect the pace to remain restrained while most preserve gas, until those who feel their mounts have enough to risk a push for victory, press the button. Depending on how many then fall by the wayside, that could be as late as between the last 2 fences or even later, given the famous run in.
So, what should we look for in either the most solid candidates to complete (perhaps for an interesting double) or those whose of finishing the market's wrongly written off?
We know, from an earlier-starting database (1988 onwards) that the normal rules about (a) age and (b) big weights don't tend to apply on Soft or Heavy ground.
As per the previous post, based upon the 12 runners that were the only ones to complete in 1995 and 1998, at distances of up to 100L behind the winners, we should look for runners that tick as many as possible of these boxes:
If run over the GN fences previously, ran creditably
>50% frame-making at all distances on Soft~Heavy
Made frame at furthest trip attempted on Soft~Heavy
High completion rate from a reasonable number of races, say 25+
Here's the product of my screen, first those with creditable runs over the fences:
Noble Yeats 47% frame-making (7/15) / furthest run on Sft~Hvy: 7/18 15.5L Gr1 30f VSft
Coko Beach 61% (14/23) / 4/13 7.5L Irish GN Trial 28f Hvy (just caught for 3rd, 0.5L) / 92% Completion (33/36) - Top 10 Finish: 4.00
Latenightpass 67% (4/6 BUT 3 in PtPs/Hnt Ch) / Won Class 2 XC 29.5f Sft (won going away) - Top 10: 3.75
Mac Tottie 40% (4/10) / PU Welsh 30.5f GN Sft / 81% Completion (25/31)
Roi Mage 55% (27/49) /3/19 Gr1 30f VSft (won going away)/ 94% Completion (51/54 excl BD) - no PU - Top 10: 5.00
Chambard 54% (13/24) / PU Welsh GN 30.5f Hvy & 8/10 31L GN Trial 28.5f Hvy / 86% Completion (32/37)
Fence Debutants that have 60%+ frame-making rate on Sft~Hvy & made the frame (or probably would have but for a late fall) at their furthest trip to date on Sft~Hvy:
Nassalam71% (10/14)/ furthest Won Welsh GN 30.5f Hvy / 95% Completion (19/29) - 1 PU, Gold Cup - Top 10: 3.00
I Am Maximus 60% (6/10) /
furthest Won Irish GN 29f Hvy - Top 10: 1.72
Mahler Mission 83% (5/6) /
F (late, leading by 6L) at 30f Sft - Top 10: 2.37
Farouk D'alene 67% (8/12) / F
(late, with leader every chance) at 24.5f & x2 wins at 24f Soft and
Heavy - Top 10: 6.00
Galia Des Liteaux 67%
(6/9) / 2/14 0.75L 29f Sft (staying on well) - Top 10: 5.00
Panda Boy 63% (5/8) / 5/27
7.75L Irish GN Hvy - Top 10: 2.20
Eklat De Rire 64% (7/11) /
Won 25.5f Hvy - Top 10: 9.00
So, based on the finishers in 1995 and 1998, those in bold are IMHO the most reliable candidates for a Top 10 Finish, even if in their own time.
I've already got Top 10 Finishes as part of layers of interest in Roi Mage and Farouk D'alene, and e/w interests in I Am Maximus, Mr Incredible, Limerick Lace and Galia des Liteaux.
But, having cashed out on Kitty's Light e/w, I shall be having some fun with singles, or constructing a saver with doubles, on others from this list.
So, I've gone for 3 doubles for a Top 10 Finish, perming Nassalam, Delta Work and Coko Beach, each of whom has a Pedigree that would make them Winning Calibre but for their CVs at the GN weights failing >2 tests.
And, in the event the trends are superceded by attritional ground, to create a (hopeful) saver a wee extra Top 5 Finish double Nassalam and Delta Work. And, in that case, for some seriously high spice - an even-wee-er treble Top 5 Finish: Nassalam, Delta Work and Coko Beach at 337.50
Finally, if Malina Girl doesn't make the cut, I'll bank most of the stake but add a tickle of a Top 5 Finish for probably the best jumper of any GN fence debutant this year, mud-lover Eklat De Rire at 21.00.
The funkiest betting slip I've ever had in a National, for sure.
Declarations made and only Conflated is scratched. Weights rise 1lb. Meaning the last to make the cut is Kitty's Light and, sadly, Malina Girl misses out by one. No Reserves - why? WhoTF knows.
BTW, bear in mind the owner of Galvin and Stattler said they wouldn't run unless the official going starts with GS. While connections are fully entitled to keep their options open, there appears to be little to no chance of that, even come Saturday.
Looking at the going, 2 of my bets so far are probably carrying far too much weight, Coko Beach and Noble Yeats, as good as they might be .. anything carrying anywhere near 11st is unlikely to last the course I reckon .. whadya say Peanuts ?
Now we know who's in and the final weights, a wrap on my model's top-rated runners this year, remembering that it represents the POTENTIAL of the runners on their optimum ground:
Winning Calibre:
I Am Maximus now 7/1 (the softer
the ground the better)
Mr
Incredible 12/1 (any ground)
Kittys
Light 12/1 (needs going not softer than GS - WILL NOT HAVE IT)
Next Best:
Limerick
Lace 20/1 (any ground)
Place Potential:
Galia Des Liteaux 25/1 (the
softer the better)
Glengouly 66/1 (any
ground)
Roi Mage 50/1 (the softer the
better)
Why these are the Top 7 / Biggest threats
These 7 are the only runners this year
whose CVs fail fewer than 3 of my model's stat-tests. 28% of all runners since
2013 failed up to 2 of its stat-tests but they contributed 98% of the 50 that
placed 1st~5th (only The Big Dog 5th last year had more).
But that's only half of my model's screen - the other is the
Pedigree "fit" of each runner with (a) winners and near-missers or
(b) placed horses
Winning Calibre Pedigrees:
This year's 3 Winning Calibre selections have Pedigrees that
have 2+ key characteristics in common (3 in the case of I Am Maximus) with the
pedigrees of the 10 winners and 8 near-missers since 2013. Runners with 2+
"Pedigree Pluses" made up 22% of all runners since 2013 but
contributed all 10 winners and 6 of the 8 near-missers (89% of those winning or
beaten by <5L).
They are not the only runners this year with such Pedigrees.
However, they are the only ones that also fail fewer than 3 stat-tests. Those
with winning calibre pedigrees but 3 test fails, thus representing the biggest
threat to them as potential winners on their own optimum ground ("big run, no cigar")
are: Noble Yeats, Corach Rambler and Panda Boy.
Others with the requisite pedigrees but >3 stat-fails are: Nassalam, Coko Beach, Capodanno, Mahler Mission, Delta Work,
Galvin and Ain't That A Shame.
Obviously, even if they don't win, it wouldn't be a shock to my
model's methodology if any of Noble Yeats, Corach Rambler and Panda Boy were to
make the frame. But each has 3 "hard" stat fails (nothing borderline
about them) and none is at an irresistible e/w price.
So, I will look to those with the model's classic Place
Potential profiles for my remaining e/w betting interests.
Place Potential Pedigrees:
A Place Potential candidate must have at least 1 Pedigree Plus,
as did 57% of all runners since 2013. They contributed 96% of all that placed
1st~5th.
This year's 4 Place selections are the only runners in
the field that have fewer than 3 stat-fails AND 1 Pedigree Plus. What adds an
extra "zip" to Limerick Lace's profile, making her
"Next Best",is that her CV has aspects closely resembling the
unexposed young chasers that have won 2 of the last 3 GNs: Minella
Times and Noble Yeats.
Borderline Place Potential:
However, there are 5 others who would figure in that Placing
group but for marginal fails of stat tests. These are the
"Borderline Place” candidates.
Failing to meet the threshold for a particular stat test can
sometimes be by the smallest of margins - by 1L distance in a key race or 1lb
of weight carried.
You have to draw the line somewhere for each stat-test but it
would hardly represent a shock to my model’s methodology if any of these were
to run well and make the frame.
Also, implicitly, they may represent the best potential (on their ground)
to finish Top 10.
They are, in card order:
Farouk D'Alene 66/1 - the
softer the better
Vanillier 9/1
Adamantly Chosen 50/1
Chemical Energy 33/1 - best
chance on decent ground - WON'T HAVE IT
Meetingofthewaters 8/1 - Mark Walsh felt he didn't stay when he rode him in the Ultima, hence has opted to ride Limerick Lace
Of these, for the reasons given previously, I think Farouk D'alene represents very interesting e/w value and have added him as an e/w at 125/1 and a Top 10 Finisher.
Hi PM, where are you putting on your doubles/treble. I have looked on my usual Bob's lot and Sky today and can't seem to get anything other than singles / outrights and EW, i'll probably do a few on the day but was looking to follow your place double and treble.
Bartlett couldn't have made it clearer earlier this week that he wouldn't run both unless there is 'good' in the going. Which 99% it won't be. And with no reserves and an already cut field, its absolutely ridiculous.
@Lincsaddick - I think Peanuts covered this a few posts ago saying that carrying more weight in testing conditions is actually of benefit rather than deficit.
Hi PM, where are you putting on your doubles/treble. I have looked on my usual Bob's lot and Sky today and can't seem to get anything other than singles / outrights and EW, i'll probably do a few on the day but was looking to follow your place double and treble.
If you go to the Top 10 or Top 5 Finish pages and click on 2 or 3 names, it will show you the double and treble returns. Ordinarily they look a bit skinny but, for me, this is potentially one of those Top 10 = a completion in their own time races. So for my purposes they can work in the conditions.
Hi PM, where are you putting on your doubles/treble. I have looked on my usual Bob's lot and Sky today and can't seem to get anything other than singles / outrights and EW, i'll probably do a few on the day but was looking to follow your place double and treble.
If you go to the Top 10 or Top 5 Finish pages and click on 2 or 3 names, it will show you the double and treble returns. Ordinarily they look a bit skinny but, for me, this is potentially one of those Top 10 = a completion in their own time races. So for my purposes they can work in the conditions.
Thank you, i did try to click multiples and look at the options. I'll try again later cheers
Comments
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/grand-national-jumpability-ratings-who-are-the-best-and-worst-jumpers-in-the-grand-national/217143
- slow ground helps horses with jumping fallibilities
- the GN fences are much more forgiving than people think. Tiger Roll was considered not the best of jumpers.
- his record is his record, despite all
You pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
At 8/1 I think he’s lousy value, but so too is Corach Rambler IMHO and several other market fancies.
But I’m very happy to have him at 25s and ecstatic at the weather.
Update as at 8.40am this morning:
National Course is Heavy (Soft places) - heaviest 6th~12th fences but now also from run to Chair to beyond Water Jump and from start to 3rd fence
Going Stick 2.9 at 7.45am
Clerk of the Course reports "Just shy of 10mm yesterday.... We're due a bit more rain 4-6mm on Wednesday morning but then that's the worst of it out of the way.
The forecast is for some rain 1-3mm on Thursday early am."
My guess is it will be stamina-sapping on Saturday (probably officially Soft) and possibly fewer than 10 finishers and stretched out. But I suspect more than the 6 finishers we had in 1995 and 1998. Prize money does go down to 10th (albeit <£7k for 7th on) and, after last year, jockies will once again be read the riot act about going steady.
Some former eminent jockies have been suggesting in recent days that it'll be like 2001 again (when only 2 finished without remounting).
Frankly, unless there’s heavy or persistent showers on the day (not forecast), I think that's baloney.
Differences, aside from 6 fewer runners than in 2001 :
Nonetheless, it's worth examining the CVs of the 6 that completed in each of the 1995 and 1998 GNs:
1995:
1998:
To summarise - positives to look for:
- if run over the fences previously, run creditably
- made frame at furthest trip on Soft or Heavy
- 50%+ win rate on Soft and Heavy
- high (e.g. 95%+) completion rate from 20+ races
Aside from Suny Bay (12-00) all carried <11-00 BUT these were times when few runners had 11-00+ and many were out of the handicap.So be wary of writing of a runner simply because they've got a big weight.
Nassalam (obviously loves the ground and probably the trip) and Coko Beach (loves the course, loves Soft and Heavy) may be off too high a mark ordinarily to figure but, if there’s heavy attrition of runners and a modest pace, it wouldn’t shock if either/both made the frame despite big weights.
Mine is they were right to blame the protestors for the mayhem (and at least 1 of the fatalities) that occurred last year.
But fine, do as you wish.
He's also right about horses with big weights. If anything, slow ground may help not hinder.
Hmm ......
There hasn't been a lower reading anywhere in the country than the ones at Aintree for their last couple of meetings and the 2.4 for the fixture in December is as low as any I can ever remember. The reason given was that not only did it hammer down in the lead-up to racing, but also because of 'considerable decompaction of the ground over the summer'. Now I'm no agriculturalist, but my understanding of decompaction of the ground means that it's loosened up, which allows more rain in, hence the incredibly low GoingStick readings.
That was backed up by the time of the Becher Chase won by Chambard being a hair's breath away from being the slowest on record, and with more rain forecast on already testing ground, surely we are looking at a National that is going to run in over ten minutes.
So which horses will that suit? Common wisdom suggests that will suit horses with lower weights but personally, I think that is utter codswallop. In fact, I think it's the other way around and that the slower the horses go the easier it is for those with big weights because they don't have to overexert themselves and their natural ability shines through.
People often think back to the old days when it wasn't easy to win the National with a big weight but it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of those with over 11 stone ran in the race, and statistically they did a lot better than they should have. Also, the races I consider to be the biggest stamina tests of the year bar the Grand National, are the Welsh version and the Eider Chase at Newcastle. They are often run on heavy ground, yet three of the last eight Chepstow races have gone to horses at the top of the weights and the Eider nearly always goes to a horse carrying more than 11 stone.
Basically, most handicaps go to a horse better than their official rating and just because Corach Rambler or I Am Maximus are due to carry 11st 5lb, it wouldn't put me off one iota. Whether Corach really wants testing ground is a different matter and surprise, surprise, I reckon Willie Mullins is probably going to win it, although with which horse I'm not entirely sure.
Update from Aintree this morning:
NATIONAL COURSE: unchanged Heavy (Soft places) - same stretches of Heavy: 6~12th fence, start to 3rd and The Chair through the water jump.
GoingStick marginally higher at 3.2
Forecast: light showers on occasion today, largely dry, possibly scattered showers but sunny spells Friday and Saturday.
My best guess for Saturday's going is officially Soft but will likely ride more testing than that.
Even with 3 dry days in store, come Saturday the ground will still likely be stamina-sapping and it looks likely that this GN could be the most attritional for more than 20 years.
If so it’s likely that, conservatively, at least half of the field will struggle to complete simply on stamina grounds. Add in the inevitable jumping casualties and it could be that no more than 12 are still standing at 2nd Bechers, with perhaps only 6~8 in with a winning chance.
In this scenario, IMHO this could be a race in which not only the trends evident in the last 10 GNs may take a holiday but there could be some interesting returns from Top 10 Finish (or, if truly attritional, even Top 5) bets, which are likely to be a bet that your horse simply completes in their own time, however far behind the winner.
The additional appeal of a Top 10 Finish bet is that it can be complementary to a book of e/w bets, of course. As singles, doubles, even triples, we can use them to shoot for the jackpot of filling 7 or 8 of the first 10 home and/or as a saver if the trends really do take a vacation.
Anticipating the pattern of an attritional race is a significant consideration because those still going at 2nd Bechers could contain runners who would struggle to get home (or to have stayed in touch to that point) on GS but who love testing ground. Best of all is if they also love the fences.
If and when the jockies realise they are one of only a handful still with a chance of making the frame, expect the pace to remain restrained while most preserve gas, until those who feel their mounts have enough to risk a push for victory, press the button. Depending on how many then fall by the wayside, that could be as late as between the last 2 fences or even later, given the famous run in.
So, what should we look for in either the most solid candidates to complete (perhaps for an interesting double) or those whose of finishing the market's wrongly written off?
We know, from an earlier-starting database (1988 onwards) that the normal rules about (a) age and (b) big weights don't tend to apply on Soft or Heavy ground.
As per the previous post, based upon the 12 runners that were the only ones to complete in 1995 and 1998, at distances of up to 100L behind the winners, we should look for runners that tick as many as possible of these boxes:
Here's the product of my screen, first those with creditable runs over the fences:
Fence Debutants that have 60%+ frame-making rate on Sft~Hvy & made the frame (or probably would have but for a late fall) at their furthest trip to date on Sft~Hvy:
So, based on the finishers in 1995 and 1998, those in bold are IMHO the most reliable candidates for a Top 10 Finish, even if in their own time.
I've already got Top 10 Finishes as part of layers of interest in Roi Mage and Farouk D'alene, and e/w interests in I Am Maximus, Mr Incredible, Limerick Lace and Galia des Liteaux.
But, having cashed out on Kitty's Light e/w, I shall be having some fun with singles, or constructing a saver with doubles, on others from this list.
More anon.
So, I've gone for 3 doubles for a Top 10 Finish, perming Nassalam, Delta Work and Coko Beach, each of whom has a Pedigree that would make them Winning Calibre but for their CVs at the GN weights failing >2 tests.
And, in the event the trends are superceded by attritional ground, to create a (hopeful) saver a wee extra Top 5 Finish double Nassalam and Delta Work.
And, in that case, for some seriously high spice - an even-wee-er treble Top 5 Finish: Nassalam, Delta Work and Coko Beach at 337.50
Finally, if Malina Girl doesn't make the cut, I'll bank most of the stake but add a tickle of a Top 5 Finish for probably the best jumper of any GN fence debutant this year, mud-lover Eklat De Rire at 21.00.
The funkiest betting slip I've ever had in a National, for sure.
I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it - arise Sir Peanuts Molloy, I salute you.
If I don't, you'll be the principal beneficiary
Meaning the last to make the cut is Kitty's Light and, sadly, Malina Girl misses out by one. No Reserves - why? WhoTF knows.
BTW, bear in mind the owner of Galvin and Stattler said they wouldn't run unless the official going starts with GS.
While connections are fully entitled to keep their options open, there appears to be little to no chance of that, even come Saturday.
Winning Calibre:
Next Best:
Place Potential:
Why these are the Top 7 / Biggest threats
These 7 are the only runners this year whose CVs fail fewer than 3 of my model's stat-tests. 28% of all runners since 2013 failed up to 2 of its stat-tests but they contributed 98% of the 50 that placed 1st~5th (only The Big Dog 5th last year had more).
But that's only half of my model's screen - the other is the Pedigree "fit" of each runner with (a) winners and near-missers or (b) placed horses
Winning Calibre Pedigrees:
This year's 3 Winning Calibre selections have Pedigrees that have 2+ key characteristics in common (3 in the case of I Am Maximus) with the pedigrees of the 10 winners and 8 near-missers since 2013. Runners with 2+ "Pedigree Pluses" made up 22% of all runners since 2013 but contributed all 10 winners and 6 of the 8 near-missers (89% of those winning or beaten by <5L).
They are not the only runners this year with such Pedigrees. However, they are the only ones that also fail fewer than 3 stat-tests. Those with winning calibre pedigrees but 3 test fails, thus representing the biggest threat to them as potential winners on their own optimum ground ("big run, no cigar") are: Noble Yeats, Corach Rambler and Panda Boy.
Others with the requisite pedigrees but >3 stat-fails are: Nassalam, Coko Beach, Capodanno, Mahler Mission, Delta Work, Galvin and Ain't That A Shame.
Obviously, even if they don't win, it wouldn't be a shock to my model's methodology if any of Noble Yeats, Corach Rambler and Panda Boy were to make the frame. But each has 3 "hard" stat fails (nothing borderline about them) and none is at an irresistible e/w price.
So, I will look to those with the model's classic Place Potential profiles for my remaining e/w betting interests.
Place Potential Pedigrees:
A Place Potential candidate must have at least 1 Pedigree Plus, as did 57% of all runners since 2013. They contributed 96% of all that placed 1st~5th.
This year's 4 Place selections are the only runners in the field that have fewer than 3 stat-fails AND 1 Pedigree Plus. What adds an extra "zip" to Limerick Lace's profile, making her "Next Best", is that her CV has aspects closely resembling the unexposed young chasers that have won 2 of the last 3 GNs: Minella Times and Noble Yeats.
Borderline Place Potential:
However, there are 5 others who would figure in that Placing group but for marginal fails of stat tests. These are the "Borderline Place” candidates.
Failing to meet the threshold for a particular stat test can sometimes be by the smallest of margins - by 1L distance in a key race or 1lb of weight carried.
You have to draw the line somewhere for each stat-test but it would hardly represent a shock to my model’s methodology if any of these were to run well and make the frame.
Also, implicitly, they may represent the best potential (on their ground) to finish Top 10.
They are, in card order:
- Farouk D'Alene 66/1 - the
softer the better
- Vanillier 9/1
- Adamantly Chosen 50/1
- Chemical Energy 33/1 - best
chance on decent ground - WON'T HAVE IT
- Meetingofthewaters 8/1 - Mark Walsh felt he didn't stay when he rode him in the Ultima, hence has opted to ride Limerick Lace
Of these, for the reasons given previously, I think Farouk D'alene represents very interesting e/w value and have added him as an e/w at 125/1 and a Top 10 Finisher.@Lincsaddick - I think Peanuts covered this a few posts ago saying that carrying more weight in testing conditions is actually of benefit rather than deficit.
Ordinarily they look a bit skinny but, for me, this is potentially one of those Top 10 = a completion in their own time races. So for my purposes they can work in the conditions.