Divided British government doesn't know what it wants
Ball is in Theresa May's court, says Taoiseach, but it seems she has no gameplan.
Dublin’s view is this is May’s problem.
The fallout from the collapse of the UK’s agreement with the EU to clear the way for the second phase of the Brexit negotiations continued in Brussels, Belfast and London on Tuesday.
But there were few discernible attempts to move things forward. In Dublin, the Government reiterated its position that the British had to offer cast-iron guarantees on the border; the ball is in Theresa May’s court now, the Taoiseach told the Dáil.
Ministers were told to maintain a conciliatory tone in their public comments, but there was no softening of the line. Despite the DUP’s incandescent reaction on Monday, Dublin’s position remained the same. This is London’s problem. It’s the British who want to move on to phase two. We had a deal. They couldn’t fulfil their side of it. So it’s up to them to fix it.
In the background there were admissions that a new version of Monday’s draft – perhaps including a declaration that the constitutional position of the North would be unaffected by any post-Brexit deal – could be considered. Though Dublin will not entertain a weakening of the assurances on the Border contained in the draft it still maintains the UK agreed on Monday.
In Brussels, there has long been a sense that the inconsistent management of Brexit is the result of British political rivalries and tensions playing themselves out in public. Two themes dominate this process: Mrs May’s weakness and the uncertainty over what exactly is the UK’s preferred destination in the Brexit talks. Dublin has always had a closer and more sympathetic understanding of British politics. But, after the chaos of Monday, the Brussels view is gaining ground here.
Incredulity It seems incredible that, 18 months after the Brexit vote, the British government has not spelled out what exactly it wants from the negotiations. Yet that remains the case. That Brussels and Dublin have become accustomed to the situation has not blunted their incredulity at it. They have long since discarded the notion that British ambiguity was some sort of devilishly clever negotiating and political strategy, and concluded it is because the British government is incapable of agreeing exactly what it is that it wants and is trying to achieve.
There have been warnings for months that the lack of unity in London would make negotiating with the British difficult. That view has now hardened that concluding a deal with this British government may be impossible. Irish Government officials still shake their heads at the fact that the British government agreed a text, and then found out that it wasn’t in a position to agree it. To a country that has always viewed the British government – whatever its disposition, benign or not – as a ruthless and efficient machine, this is some state of affairs.
Some people in Government were interpreting the comments by Brexit secretary David Davis on Tuesday – when he suggested that regulatory alignment should extend to all of the UK – may be a signal that the British government is moving in a definitive direction at last, and that direction is towards a softer Brexit. Is this May’s move? Other sources dispute it, saying that the British were always likely to seek alignment in some areas to facilitate a free trade agreement. Others say they don’t know what they can believe or depend on.
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
Even if we could imagine a scenario where all previously antagonistic people on the island of Ireland put aside all differences now and forever, and even agreed they got on so well the Good Friday Agreement can be by-passed, due to the result of the referendum and under the present approach of the Government, there would still be a hard border in Ireland. Unless somebody can tell me where I am going wrong in the following:
The UK is out of the EU Ireland is in the EU They are two different trading entities, with different laws and procedures after brexit. There is a land border between the EU state, and the UK. Unless the whole world puts their fingers in their ears, shuts their eyes and goes la la la, there is a de facto border which will have to be managed somehow.
May and Davis are trying to get through the first gate with this regulatory equivalence banter. This is Schrodinger stuff where a customs union is simultaneously alive and dead at the same time! The Irish have bought into the wording as have the EU27. It works...for now.
IDS comes out and blames anybody except the DUP and the Tory whips despite the fact that the UK, Ireland and EU27 agreed the wording.
May needs to summons Foster to London and tell her behave or the alternative is to call an election. Same goes for the cabinet.
That Foster is playing to the gallery is not a surprise. She even refused a call from no.10 yesterday. As per the links from @NornIrishAddick politicians in Belfast shouldn't assume 100% backing especially when they are aligned with the alt-right fringe elements.
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
Not just the Tories. A few on here continue to blame the evil EU for purposefully frustrating the talks or using their "colony" (lol) Ireland as a pawn for their machinations towards continental domination. Maybe it is time for this last bastion of flat-Earthers to recognise that it is not the EU that is the problem but the twin issues of:
a) a successful Brexit that satisfies all parties is simply not possible
b) the British government are woefully ill-qualified to handle Brexit
Those are the two immutable situations which means Brexit should be cancelled as soon as possible.
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
You forgot single mothers !
Anyone else finding it odd that CL brexiteers have seemed to have run for cover ?
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
You forgot single mothers !
Anyone else finding it odd that CL brexiteers have seemed to have run for cover ?
Might be sensible now Trump is attempting to reignite the Palestinian conflict.
I think the talks will fail at some stage, if not now but further down the line. The inevitable will be leaving the E.U. without a deal which most sensible M.P.s would find unacceptable. I wonder if in that case a very unlikely scenario would occur. A grouping of centrist M.P.s forming to govern "in the national interest" led by a politician from the centre - Greg Clarke for example. Unlikely if not impossible - but.
We live in such strange times the moment is right for the unknown unknowns. Farage was on the wireless recently speaking of 'the Brexit we all voted for'. He knows does he? Does he buggery. Nobody knows what Brexit was supposed to mean, it is as vague a term as the term 'professional', defined on the hoof by anybody to suit their views. Can't we simply give all the British a blue passport, carry on as before, and call it Brexit?
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
Not just the Tories. A few on here continue to blame the evil EU for purposefully frustrating the talks or using their "colony" (lol) Ireland as a pawn for their machinations towards continental domination. Maybe it is time for this last bastion of flat-Earthers to recognise that it is not the EU that is the problem but the twin issues of:
a) a successful Brexit that satisfies all parties is simply not possible
b) the British government are woefully ill-qualified to handle Brexit
Those are the two immutable situations which means Brexit should be cancelled as soon as possible.
I don't disagree with your conclusion but nor sure about the way you got there. It would help me to understand if you could explain how the NI/RoI border question can possibly be solved adequately BEFORE the agreement on the future trade arrangements are, at least, broadly agreed. The EU insistence of having phased talks is surely a considerable hindrance to the whole process, is it not?
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
Not just the Tories. A few on here continue to blame the evil EU for purposefully frustrating the talks or using their "colony" (lol) Ireland as a pawn for their machinations towards continental domination. Maybe it is time for this last bastion of flat-Earthers to recognise that it is not the EU that is the problem but the twin issues of:
a) a successful Brexit that satisfies all parties is simply not possible
b) the British government are woefully ill-qualified to handle Brexit
Those are the two immutable situations which means Brexit should be cancelled as soon as possible.
I don't disagree with your conclusion but nor sure about the way you got there. It would help me to understand if you could explain how the NI/RoI border question can possibly be solved adequately BEFORE the agreement on the future trade arrangements are, at least, broadly agreed. The EU insistence of having phased talks is surely a considerable hindrance to the whole process, is it not?
Why did we, almost immediately, agree to them then?
And why did we take Customs Union and Single Market off the table BEFORE the negotiations on future trade arrangements had even begun negotiations ?
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
Not just the Tories. A few on here continue to blame the evil EU for purposefully frustrating the talks or using their "colony" (lol) Ireland as a pawn for their machinations towards continental domination. Maybe it is time for this last bastion of flat-Earthers to recognise that it is not the EU that is the problem but the twin issues of:
a) a successful Brexit that satisfies all parties is simply not possible
b) the British government are woefully ill-qualified to handle Brexit
Those are the two immutable situations which means Brexit should be cancelled as soon as possible.
I don't disagree with your conclusion but nor sure about the way you got there. It would help me to understand if you could explain how the NI/RoI border question can possibly be solved adequately BEFORE the agreement on the future trade arrangements are, at least, broadly agreed. The EU insistence of having phased talks is surely a considerable hindrance to the whole process, is it not?
How many different border options are there? I think I have boiled it down to two, no border or a hard border. Surely the UK government can create two parallel plans, one for each instance, and tell us what they are?
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
Not just the Tories. A few on here continue to blame the evil EU for purposefully frustrating the talks or using their "colony" (lol) Ireland as a pawn for their machinations towards continental domination. Maybe it is time for this last bastion of flat-Earthers to recognise that it is not the EU that is the problem but the twin issues of:
a) a successful Brexit that satisfies all parties is simply not possible
b) the British government are woefully ill-qualified to handle Brexit
Those are the two immutable situations which means Brexit should be cancelled as soon as possible.
I don't disagree with your conclusion but nor sure about the way you got there. It would help me to understand if you could explain how the NI/RoI border question can possibly be solved adequately BEFORE the agreement on the future trade arrangements are, at least, broadly agreed. The EU insistence of having phased talks is surely a considerable hindrance to the whole process, is it not?
You’ve fallen for the spin.
Once Brexit is done there will be a border between the U.K./NI and the EU/ROI. That is a fact. The government has insisted that Brexit means the U.K. leaving the single market and Customs Union. That’s a fact too. That outcome means that there will be a completely different set of rules for trade, tariffs, quality control etc etc. Either side of that crossing. The notion that this need not be formally controlled is fanciful and can’t work. Formally controlled will not satisfy the ROI or the DUP. It probably doesn’t satisfy Westminster either but that’s their fudge. An arrangement that blurs the lines on this border for some aspects of trade has been mentioned for example agricultural products and services. Again a fudge. No amount of trade bargaining can get around these issues unless the U.K. remains in the SM and CU. That’s a red line for the loonies. I’ve not even mentioned the good Friday agreement or WTO rules.
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
Not just the Tories. A few on here continue to blame the evil EU for purposefully frustrating the talks or using their "colony" (lol) Ireland as a pawn for their machinations towards continental domination. Maybe it is time for this last bastion of flat-Earthers to recognise that it is not the EU that is the problem but the twin issues of:
a) a successful Brexit that satisfies all parties is simply not possible
b) the British government are woefully ill-qualified to handle Brexit
Those are the two immutable situations which means Brexit should be cancelled as soon as possible.
I don't disagree with your conclusion but nor sure about the way you got there. It would help me to understand if you could explain how the NI/RoI border question can possibly be solved adequately BEFORE the agreement on the future trade arrangements are, at least, broadly agreed. The EU insistence of having phased talks is surely a considerable hindrance to the whole process, is it not?
Why did we, almost immediately, agree to them then?
And why did we take Customs Union and Single Market off the table BEFORE the negotiations on future trade arrangements had even begun negotiations ?
Because the Tory Party is split from top to bottom. The swivel eyed 35 or so MP’s demanded it. May is too weak to stand up for herself and what’s best.
Surely there's nothing alt right about the DUP? They've been like that ever since they began, and reflect some very deep rooted unionist beliefs (if my book on the troubles is to be believed).
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
Not just the Tories. A few on here continue to blame the evil EU for purposefully frustrating the talks or using their "colony" (lol) Ireland as a pawn for their machinations towards continental domination. Maybe it is time for this last bastion of flat-Earthers to recognise that it is not the EU that is the problem but the twin issues of:
a) a successful Brexit that satisfies all parties is simply not possible
b) the British government are woefully ill-qualified to handle Brexit
Those are the two immutable situations which means Brexit should be cancelled as soon as possible.
I don't disagree with your conclusion but nor sure about the way you got there. It would help me to understand if you could explain how the NI/RoI border question can possibly be solved adequately BEFORE the agreement on the future trade arrangements are, at least, broadly agreed. The EU insistence of having phased talks is surely a considerable hindrance to the whole process, is it not?
My understanding of the sequencing has always been that sufficient progress (rather than an absolute solution) on the status of the Irish border would help identify what kind of future trading relationship would be possible.
So, if anything, the Phase 1 negotiations were meant a) to be the easy bit and b) to frame the context for any following talks.
Thrashing out, successfully, the broad terms of how the UK and EU would agree to address citizens' rights, the Irish border and financial settlement would create a climate in which both sides could compromise sufficiently to engender the common ground and goodwill that are desperately needed for the next stage.
It is clear, from the way that Monday panned out, that the EU was looking only for a form of words that could meet Irish concerns (and the only hope to avoid a "hard" border, relatively speaking, is to have the same, if de facto, regulatory system on both sides of that border). In this, the EU has a similar approach to each of the three questions (they have never put an official figure on any financial settlement, for example), Phase 1 is about principles (which probably explains why Boris Johnson is nowhere to be seen).
I'm still not sure that the Conservatives understand this, or the wider process of the negotiations. If they had, I doubt if Theresa May would have abandoned the Single Market and Customs' Union before beginning any talks. The UK had backed itself into a corner, ensuring that the Irish border had to be a stumbling block now - creative ambiguity on the final trade arrangements would, at least have made sufficient progress easier, but, in the light of the UK's express aim for the future relationship, the Irish Government had to seek a firmer commitment than it otherwise might.
I notice the Tories have started their usual excuses blaming everyone else for their failure. I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months. I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
Not just the Tories. A few on here continue to blame the evil EU for purposefully frustrating the talks or using their "colony" (lol) Ireland as a pawn for their machinations towards continental domination. Maybe it is time for this last bastion of flat-Earthers to recognise that it is not the EU that is the problem but the twin issues of:
a) a successful Brexit that satisfies all parties is simply not possible
b) the British government are woefully ill-qualified to handle Brexit
Those are the two immutable situations which means Brexit should be cancelled as soon as possible.
I don't disagree with your conclusion but nor sure about the way you got there. It would help me to understand if you could explain how the NI/RoI border question can possibly be solved adequately BEFORE the agreement on the future trade arrangements are, at least, broadly agreed. The EU insistence of having phased talks is surely a considerable hindrance to the whole process, is it not?
Not really. Others have answered but may I add that the three questions re. Brexit fees, rights of three million EU citizens and the N.Ireland border were put on the table to resolve Brexit first. This to stop the UK (and the hard right) from using those issues to blackmail the EU27 during the trade discussions. As @seth plum has explained we are either in the CU/SM with the EU or not. And if we are in or if we promise to keep our regulations aligned then that determines the nature of the border.
The details of the trade deal come later - the EU27 are simply looking to protect their interests and then spell out in the next phase what might be on offer. First we must seek to understand and then look to be understood. May and Davis have listened, played the game and are very close to sign off. It is in the national interests to sign off - the clock is ticking and business and financial services will leave these shores if it appears that the UK is being held hostage by the DUP.
What this process also does is to split the alt-right elements from the centre right - it highlights the tautology, the lies and spin which brought us here. Some want to put it all back in the box but it's not that simple. The UK has to keep going through 2018 and we should hope that rational thought will find a way through. The myth that the EU is going to roll over has gone. And now it becomes clear that no deal and the loss of 5% of GDP overnight is the preferred choice of the alt-right. Why?
Because they are going to get smashed to pieces in full view of the electorate if there is a full trade discussion in 2018. Their positions will be exposed as nonsense and against the national interest. Chlorine washed chicken is just a simple illustration - there will be far more detail about what staying in the CU and SM might offer.
David Davis written statement to Parliament 7 November: "The sectoral analysis is a wide mix of qualitative and quantitative analysis contained in a range of documents" David Davis today: No impact assessments have been done on the impact of Brexit on UK economy.
David Davis' evidence to the Brexit Committee in October, when he was quite happy to talk about the impact assessments that exist in "excruciating detail". Now he says they don't exist.
So we are now back to the stage of not knowing how much any of this is likely to cost the economy. It wasn't that long ago this idiot was telling the public we didn't know the cost of a "no deal" option either so we shouldn't be surprised I suppose.
Is there anybody left out there who has any confidence this shambles of a government is going to deliver anything approaching a deal that's not far worse than we have now?
It’s staggering and utterly unbelievable incompetence.
If this happened in a business context there would be allegations they had breached their statutory duties. In other circumstances it would be funny seeing them squirming at every new revelation and turn but sadly we are all going to end up worse off due to this lot.
Looking at this mess it is difficult to see how this could be going any worse for the government. If I had voted for Leave I would be livid at this omnishambles.
Also imagine what progress the government could have made on the NHS, education or homelessness had Cameron not introduced the referendum in 2015 as a vote grabber. What an odd period in UK history this will be seen as.
It's not incompetence. It's not an accident. These Tories have figured it out.
They have positioned themselves as the pro-Brexit party, and that any other party that threatens them is going to stop Brexit. This guarantees them power for as long as Brexit trundles along for.
Which is exactly why they are approaching it with all the urgency and dedication of a heavily drugged sloth attempting to solve a Rubik's Cube. They know for as long as they are the only party committed to delivering Brexit, no matter what else they do they have carte blanche to enact their extremely right-wing policies that they could never ever get away with without the shield of Brexit. The cabinet and the government are almost entirely made up of the farthest right of the party. They don't care about Brexit. The ministers, their families, their donors and their patricians in the fourth estate, the pro-Brexit right-wing media, control most of the wealth and power in this country. They are completely insulated from the negative effects of Brexit as their offshore and overseas assets will continue to grow at the expense of the UK's chaos. They are using Brexit to continue the transfer of control and wealth from the people to themselves.
We need to stop this government and stop Brexit before the country is irreversibly doomed to fail under a hard-right agenda where the only winners will be people manifestly opposed to the prosperity of the British people.
If you get get the chance, try to watch Daily Politics with Andrew Neal on BBC iPlayer. It’s one of the best things I’ve seen for ages. Greg Hands and Andrew McDonald both get the treatment but Greg Hands is absolutely hilarious.
Comments
A comment article from the Guardian that, to me, seems to cut through at least some of the crap: https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/06/dup-brexiters-northern-ireland-brexit.
But, confusion seems to be the order of the day, at least according to Dara O'Briain's mate from his days in UCD: https://irishtimes.com/news/politics/divided-british-government-doesn-t-know-what-it-wants-1.3316957.
Just realised it's subscriber only, so:
Divided British government doesn't know what it wants
Ball is in Theresa May's court, says Taoiseach, but it seems she has no gameplan.
Dublin’s view is this is May’s problem.
The fallout from the collapse of the UK’s agreement with the EU to clear the way for the second phase of the Brexit negotiations continued in Brussels, Belfast and London on Tuesday.
But there were few discernible attempts to move things forward. In Dublin, the Government reiterated its position that the British had to offer cast-iron guarantees on the border; the ball is in Theresa May’s court now, the Taoiseach told the Dáil.
Ministers were told to maintain a conciliatory tone in their public comments, but there was no softening of the line. Despite the DUP’s incandescent reaction on Monday, Dublin’s position remained the same. This is London’s problem. It’s the British who want to move on to phase two. We had a deal. They couldn’t fulfil their side of it. So it’s up to them to fix it.
In the background there were admissions that a new version of Monday’s draft – perhaps including a declaration that the constitutional position of the North would be unaffected by any post-Brexit deal – could be considered. Though Dublin will not entertain a weakening of the assurances on the Border contained in the draft it still maintains the UK agreed on Monday.
In Brussels, there has long been a sense that the inconsistent management of Brexit is the result of British political rivalries and tensions playing themselves out in public. Two themes dominate this process: Mrs May’s weakness and the uncertainty over what exactly is the UK’s preferred destination in the Brexit talks. Dublin has always had a closer and more sympathetic understanding of British politics. But, after the chaos of Monday, the Brussels view is gaining ground here.
Incredulity
It seems incredible that, 18 months after the Brexit vote, the British government has not spelled out what exactly it wants from the negotiations. Yet that remains the case. That Brussels and Dublin have become accustomed to the situation has not blunted their incredulity at it. They have long since discarded the notion that British ambiguity was some sort of devilishly clever negotiating and political strategy, and concluded it is because the British government is incapable of agreeing exactly what it is that it wants and is trying to achieve.
There have been warnings for months that the lack of unity in London would make negotiating with the British difficult. That view has now hardened that concluding a deal with this British government may be impossible. Irish Government officials still shake their heads at the fact that the British government agreed a text, and then found out that it wasn’t in a position to agree it. To a country that has always viewed the British government – whatever its disposition, benign or not – as a ruthless and efficient machine, this is some state of affairs.
Some people in Government were interpreting the comments by Brexit secretary David Davis on Tuesday – when he suggested that regulatory alignment should extend to all of the UK – may be a signal that the British government is moving in a definitive direction at last, and that direction is towards a softer Brexit. Is this May’s move? Other sources dispute it, saying that the British were always likely to seek alignment in some areas to facilitate a free trade agreement. Others say they don’t know what they can believe or depend on.
I.D.S. last night accusing the E.U. of a power struggle and B.J. last week implying the E.U. have been holding up the negotiations for 18 months.
I'm waiting for an accusing finger to be pointed at the miners, benefit cheats or immigrants.
IDS comes out and blames anybody except the DUP and the Tory whips despite the fact that the UK, Ireland and EU27 agreed the wording.
May needs to summons Foster to London and tell her behave or the alternative is to call an election. Same goes for the cabinet.
That Foster is playing to the gallery is not a surprise. She even refused a call from no.10 yesterday. As per the links from @NornIrishAddick politicians in Belfast shouldn't assume 100% backing especially when they are aligned with the alt-right fringe elements.
a) a successful Brexit that satisfies all parties is simply not possible
b) the British government are woefully ill-qualified to handle Brexit
Those are the two immutable situations which means Brexit should be cancelled as soon as possible.
Anyone else finding it odd that CL brexiteers have seemed to have run for cover ?
The inevitable will be leaving the E.U. without a deal which most sensible M.P.s would find unacceptable.
I wonder if in that case a very unlikely scenario would occur.
A grouping of centrist M.P.s forming to govern "in the national interest" led by a politician from the centre - Greg Clarke for example.
Unlikely if not impossible - but.
Farage was on the wireless recently speaking of 'the Brexit we all voted for'.
He knows does he? Does he buggery.
Nobody knows what Brexit was supposed to mean, it is as vague a term as the term 'professional', defined on the hoof by anybody to suit their views.
Can't we simply give all the British a blue passport, carry on as before, and call it Brexit?
And why did we take Customs Union and Single Market off the table BEFORE the negotiations on future trade arrangements had even begun negotiations ?
Surely the UK government can create two parallel plans, one for each instance, and tell us what they are?
Once Brexit is done there will be a border between the U.K./NI and the EU/ROI. That is a fact. The government has insisted that Brexit means the U.K. leaving the single market and Customs Union. That’s a fact too. That outcome means that there will be a completely different set of rules for trade, tariffs, quality control etc etc. Either side of that crossing. The notion that this need not be formally controlled is fanciful and can’t work. Formally controlled will not satisfy the ROI or the DUP. It probably doesn’t satisfy Westminster either but that’s their fudge. An arrangement that blurs the lines on this border for some aspects of trade has been mentioned for example agricultural products and services. Again a fudge. No amount of trade bargaining can get around these issues unless the U.K. remains in the SM and CU. That’s a red line for the loonies. I’ve not even mentioned the good Friday agreement or WTO rules.
So, if anything, the Phase 1 negotiations were meant a) to be the easy bit and b) to frame the context for any following talks.
Thrashing out, successfully, the broad terms of how the UK and EU would agree to address citizens' rights, the Irish border and financial settlement would create a climate in which both sides could compromise sufficiently to engender the common ground and goodwill that are desperately needed for the next stage.
It is clear, from the way that Monday panned out, that the EU was looking only for a form of words that could meet Irish concerns (and the only hope to avoid a "hard" border, relatively speaking, is to have the same, if de facto, regulatory system on both sides of that border). In this, the EU has a similar approach to each of the three questions (they have never put an official figure on any financial settlement, for example), Phase 1 is about principles (which probably explains why Boris Johnson is nowhere to be seen).
I'm still not sure that the Conservatives understand this, or the wider process of the negotiations. If they had, I doubt if Theresa May would have abandoned the Single Market and Customs' Union before beginning any talks. The UK had backed itself into a corner, ensuring that the Irish border had to be a stumbling block now - creative ambiguity on the final trade arrangements would, at least have made sufficient progress easier, but, in the light of the UK's express aim for the future relationship, the Irish Government had to seek a firmer commitment than it otherwise might.
The details of the trade deal come later - the EU27 are simply looking to protect their interests and then spell out in the next phase what might be on offer. First we must seek to understand and then look to be understood. May and Davis have listened, played the game and are very close to sign off. It is in the national interests to sign off - the clock is ticking and business and financial services will leave these shores if it appears that the UK is being held hostage by the DUP.
What this process also does is to split the alt-right elements from the centre right - it highlights the tautology, the lies and spin which brought us here. Some want to put it all back in the box but it's not that simple. The UK has to keep going through 2018 and we should hope that rational thought will find a way through. The myth that the EU is going to roll over has gone. And now it becomes clear that no deal and the loss of 5% of GDP overnight is the preferred choice of the alt-right. Why?
Because they are going to get smashed to pieces in full view of the electorate if there is a full trade discussion in 2018. Their positions will be exposed as nonsense and against the national interest. Chlorine washed chicken is just a simple illustration - there will be far more detail about what staying in the CU and SM might offer.
David Davis' evidence to the Brexit Committee in October, when he was quite happy to talk about the impact assessments that exist in "excruciating detail". Now he says they don't exist.
Un f*cking believable.
I think he will go before he's pushed.
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42249854
So we are now back to the stage of not knowing how much any of this is likely to cost the economy. It wasn't that long ago this idiot was telling the public we didn't know the cost of a "no deal" option either so we shouldn't be surprised I suppose.
Is there anybody left out there who has any confidence this shambles of a government is going to deliver anything approaching a deal that's not far worse than we have now?
Still, blue passports
Also imagine what progress the government could have made on the NHS, education or homelessness had Cameron not introduced the referendum in 2015 as a vote grabber. What an odd period in UK history this will be seen as.
They have positioned themselves as the pro-Brexit party, and that any other party that threatens them is going to stop Brexit. This guarantees them power for as long as Brexit trundles along for.
Which is exactly why they are approaching it with all the urgency and dedication of a heavily drugged sloth attempting to solve a Rubik's Cube. They know for as long as they are the only party committed to delivering Brexit, no matter what else they do they have carte blanche to enact their extremely right-wing policies that they could never ever get away with without the shield of Brexit. The cabinet and the government are almost entirely made up of the farthest right of the party. They don't care about Brexit. The ministers, their families, their donors and their patricians in the fourth estate, the pro-Brexit right-wing media, control most of the wealth and power in this country. They are completely insulated from the negative effects of Brexit as their offshore and overseas assets will continue to grow at the expense of the UK's chaos. They are using Brexit to continue the transfer of control and wealth from the people to themselves.
We need to stop this government and stop Brexit before the country is irreversibly doomed to fail under a hard-right agenda where the only winners will be people manifestly opposed to the prosperity of the British people.