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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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    se9addick said:

    T May to make an announcement outside Downing Street this morning... gen election? Resigning? People’s vote?

    She’s made it, she’s fighting the challenge to her premiership.
    Haha okay thanks, sneaking away to look at my phone whilst there’s a shoot going on in the studio I’m working in, hard to keep up.
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    My understanding is that if May wins, she can't be challenged again for a year (though she can always resign) wondering if she'll go now because they don't want her for that long
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    Today is the day for Corbyn's no confidence vote.

    Would be a tactical disaster although good for the craic.

    Putting in a vote of no confidence at the point where the PM has just got a vote of support from her MP’s would be ridiculous. That’s the risk for Corbyn.

    There will come a time but it’s not now.
    The time to do it would be it May gets outed by her own party. Although if the tories extremely quickly choose a new leader that might fall quickly on its arse
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    Today is the day for Corbyn's no confidence vote.

    Would be a tactical disaster although good for the craic.

    Putting in a vote of no confidence at the point where the PM has just got a vote of support from her MP’s would be ridiculous. That’s the risk for Corbyn.

    There will come a time but it’s not now.
    The time to do it would be it May gets outed by her own party. Although if the tories extremely quickly choose a new leader that might fall quickly on its arse
    I think labour will be in the better position. I think that anyone will be better than Corbyn (asuuming it isn't a momentum shill, a bold assumption I grant you), but for the Tories, everyone will be worse than May. Not that either side have an embarrassment of riches...
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    Today is the day for Corbyn's no confidence vote.

    Would be a tactical disaster although good for the craic.

    Putting in a vote of no confidence at the point where the PM has just got a vote of support from her MP’s would be ridiculous. That’s the risk for Corbyn.

    There will come a time but it’s not now.
    The time to do it would be it May gets outed by her own party. Although if the tories extremely quickly choose a new leader that might fall quickly on its arse
    Even the tories will back the new leader, in a HOC vote of no confidence, they have just selected, even if just in the short term.

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    McBobbin said:

    Today is the day for Corbyn's no confidence vote.

    Would be a tactical disaster although good for the craic.

    Putting in a vote of no confidence at the point where the PM has just got a vote of support from her MP’s would be ridiculous. That’s the risk for Corbyn.

    There will come a time but it’s not now.
    The time to do it would be it May gets outed by her own party. Although if the tories extremely quickly choose a new leader that might fall quickly on its arse
    I think labour will be in the better position. I think that anyone will be better than Corbyn (asuuming it isn't a momentum shill, a bold assumption I grant you), but for the Tories, everyone will be worse than May. Not that either side have an embarrassment of riches...
    Really?????

    And if I were to mention, for example, Kate Hoey.....
    She'd be Fantastic. A woman of skill and integrity. Ok ... So perhaps "anyone" was an exaggeration... But there must be at least 5? That is truly the best I can do
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    It does make delaying the leave date beyond 31 March more likely IMHO
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    Appointing another remainer is a complete waste of time. If it comes to it they need to appoint a hardish line brexiteer. Extend article 50. Sit back and watch said brexiteer head over to Brussels to get a ground breaking deal. Fail miserably. Head back to the UK with his/her tail between their legs.
    People vote.
    Brexit back in the box and off to the dump with it.
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    If ERG feel that there is a real risk that should Labour call a vote of no confidence and the government loses with the DUP still unable to support whatever deal May brings to the house next time so votes against the government then they will put forward an alternative leader and call a contest. If they don’t and the scenario I describe plays out then there will have to be a general election and Brexit could then theoretically be in jeopardy. They won’t allow that possibility. The problem ERG have is that they have to go for broke before any no confidence vote is tabled. Have they the numbers and have they the balls ? I think they are very close to pressing the button.

    se9addick said:

    If ERG feel that there is a real risk that should Labour call a vote of no confidence and the government loses with the DUP still unable to support whatever deal May brings to the house next time so votes against the government then they will put forward an alternative leader and call a contest. If they don’t and the scenario I describe plays out then there will have to be a general election and Brexit could then theoretically be in jeopardy. They won’t allow that possibility. The problem ERG have is that they have to go for broke before any no confidence vote is tabled. Have they the numbers and have they the balls ? I think they are very close to pressing the button.

    The ERG couldn’t even drum up 48 no confidence letters when their head priest made his move a couple of weeks ago. I don’t understand why people pay them so much attention.
    I’m forming my opinion based on what was in many of yesterday’s newspapers. I think they lacked the numbers a couple of weeks ago because many of the disgruntled Tories were prepared to wait and see what May could do more. I do not think that “assurances” and changes to the language used in the WA will appease many and certainly not the DUP. That ensures the deal will fail when eventually voted on. Can ERG and the Tory brexiters risk a vote of no confidence directly following the vote and despite all Tories rallying to the flag still losing because the DUP are still pissed ? That would mean a General Election. If that happens the Brexit the Tory party want is unlikely to happen. Far less risky to get a new leader in now to steady the good ship Brexit.

    If ERG feel that there is a real risk that should Labour call a vote of no confidence and the government loses with the DUP still unable to support whatever deal May brings to the house next time so votes against the government then they will put forward an alternative leader and call a contest. If they don’t and the scenario I describe plays out then there will have to be a general election and Brexit could then theoretically be in jeopardy. They won’t allow that possibility. The problem ERG have is that they have to go for broke before any no confidence vote is tabled. Have they the numbers and have they the balls ? I think they are very close to pressing the button.

    They have already pressed the button.

    Rees-Mogg called for MPs to submit letters, presumably in the belief that he had the numbers when the May deal was announced but the coup flopped when they didn't get the 48 letters required.

    It maybe that the numbers are now there but will they risk another embarrassing failure?
    See my post above.


    I’m forming my opinion based on what was in many of yesterday’s newspapers. I think they lacked the numbers a couple of weeks ago because many of the disgruntled Tories were prepared to wait and see what May could do more.

    Just saying ;0)

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    Today is the day for Corbyn's no confidence vote.

    Would be a tactical disaster although good for the craic.

    Putting in a vote of no confidence at the point where the PM has just got a vote of support from her MP’s would be ridiculous. That’s the risk for Corbyn.

    There will come a time but it’s not now.
    There is little point waiting for May's deal to be put to the vote as it is unlikely to happen.
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    It does make delaying the leave date beyond 31 March more likely IMHO

    If that's possible. Needs each and every EU country to agree.

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    The question arises whether the rest of the EU states would (as required) unanimously agree to an article 50 delay?

    The possible irony is that a request to delay - in order to hold a Tory leadership election (with the strong possibility of a 'Brexit' supporting winner), or to hold a second referendum, or a general election (both with uncertain outcomes for Brexit from the point of view of the EU) - might not receive that unanimity, so to avoid crashing out on March 29th the UK may need to exercise it's newly clarified right to cancel article 50?
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    Today is the day for Corbyn's no confidence vote.

    Would be a tactical disaster although good for the craic.

    Putting in a vote of no confidence at the point where the PM has just got a vote of support from her MP’s would be ridiculous. That’s the risk for Corbyn.

    There will come a time but it’s not now.
    There is little point waiting for May's deal to be put to the vote as it is unlikely to happen.
    That’s not necessarily when it’s best to call for a Labour vote of no confidence. The time will be perhaps tomorrow should she lose because there won’t be another PM in place until at least mid January. Hardly stable given the timescales involved in Brexit. Having said that the DUP won’t support the vote unless this deal is still on the table. My guess is that it won’t come until a “no deal” is looking likely.

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    Jints said:

    Corbyn's not going to call for a vote of no confidence.

    IMO, his main aim is to avoid setting out a policy on Brexit as this would divide the party. He wants Brexit settled before any general election with the Tories taking the blame for the entire mess.

    Another one putting party before country then
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    edited December 2018

    Today is the day for Corbyn's no confidence vote.

    Would be a tactical disaster although good for the craic.

    Putting in a vote of no confidence at the point where the PM has just got a vote of support from her MP’s would be ridiculous. That’s the risk for Corbyn.

    There will come a time but it’s not now.
    There is little point waiting for May's deal to be put to the vote as it is unlikely to happen.
    That’s not necessarily when it’s best to call for a Labour vote of no confidence. The time will be perhaps tomorrow should she lose because there won’t be another PM in place until at least mid January. Hardly stable given the timescales involved in Brexit. Having said that the DUP won’t support the vote unless this deal is still on the table. My guess is that it won’t come until a “no deal” is looking likely.

    I do see that tomorrow has its merits too. I think today was/is a serious option, but events are so fluid.
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    Jints said:

    Corbyn's not going to call for a vote of no confidence.

    IMO, his main aim is to avoid setting out a policy on Brexit as this would divide the party. He wants Brexit settled before any general election with the Tories taking the blame for the entire mess.


    Jints said:

    Corbyn's not going to call for a vote of no confidence.

    IMO, his main aim is to avoid setting out a policy on Brexit as this would divide the party. He wants Brexit settled before any general election with the Tories taking the blame for the entire mess.

    Another one putting party before country then
    Oh, you beat me to it.

    Clearly it's not just a Tory problem.
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    Jints said:

    It does make delaying the leave date beyond 31 March more likely IMHO

    If that's possible. Needs each and every EU country to agree.

    UK can revoke A50 of it's own accord
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    Jints said:

    Jints said:

    It does make delaying the leave date beyond 31 March more likely IMHO

    If that's possible. Needs each and every EU country to agree.

    UK can revoke A50 of it's own accord
    It can revoke it but can't suspend it.

    Correct - to kick it down the road it would require unanimous agreement of the 27.
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    edited December 2018
    Yeah, this sounds like a fucking delightful choice from where I'm sitting!

    Lied on the side of a bus. Only destroyed one vital arm of Government. How quaint!
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!