The influence of the EU on Britain.

Covered End

I'm confident the whole thing will be called off one way or another and we will remain.

WSS

Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.

Or is that giving her too much credit?

se9addick

WSS said:

Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.

Or is that giving her too much credit?

Yeah I really don’t think that’s possible, there’s too many people that are Brexiteers (her former Brexit securities for instance) that would need to be involved in that plot who would definitely have outed her to make that a viable conspiracy theory.

ShootersHillGuru

Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.

se9addick

ShootersHillGuru said:

Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.

May couldn’t have screwed over the DUP any more if she had tried, they will skewer her at any opportunity they have. Wouldn’t it be delicious if the DUP, who essentially got her in to power we’re the ones who took her down.

kentaddick

ShootersHillGuru said:

Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.

HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.

Stig

se9addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.

May couldn’t have screwed over the DUP any more of she had tried, they will skewer her at any opportunity they have. Wouldn’t it be delicious if the DUP, who essentially got her in to power we’re the ones who took her down.

King Maker to King Breaker in 18 months.

Fiiish

WSS said:

Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.

Or is that giving her too much credit?

Careful now. That's dangerously close to the loony theory that Remainers have been conspiring to secretly derail Brexit from the start and whilst there is zero evidence for this it does get the ruddy faced Brexiteers frothing.

Covered End

WSS said:

Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.

Or is that giving her too much credit?

I said that about 50 pages ago. I definitely, think there's an element of this.

RedArmySE7

Covered End said:

WSS said:

Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.

Or is that giving her too much credit?

I said that about 50 pages ago. I definitely, think there's an element of this.

I genuinely don’t believe she’s that capable.

ShootersHillGuru

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.

HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.

You do understand what’s at play here ? If the vote falls next week it’s perfectly appropriate that the opposition calls a vote of no confidence. They can in fact call one at any point. Labour would dearly love a general election and the rules allow them to take this approach in order to try to force one. They do of course have to win that vote in order for anything to happen. The usual state of things means that a government with a majority would defeat the no confidence vote. However. As the DUP are the difference in their “support” arrangement with the government should they decide that they as @se9addick has suggested think May has shafted them and consequently decide to vote with the opposition parties.

It’s democratic. It’s legal and it’s part of the rules of the House. GET OVER IT

charente addick

.

WSS said:

Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.

Or is that giving her too much credit?

Probably not, but, there is a possibility that it’s no coincidence that the latest Grieve amendment went through whereas he was persuaded to soften a controversial proposed amendment earlier in the year.

se9addick

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

kentaddick

ShootersHillGuru said:

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.

HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.

You do understand what’s at play here ? If the vote falls next week it’s perfectly appropriate that the opposition calls a vote of no confidence. They can in fact call one at any point. Labour would dearly love a general election and the rules allow them to take this approach in order to try to force one. They do of course have to win that vote in order for anything to happen. The usual state of things means that a government with a majority would defeat the no confidence vote. However. As the DUP are the difference in their “support” arrangement with the government should they decide that they as @se9addick has suggested think May has shafted them and consequently decide to vote with the opposition parties.

It’s democratic. It’s legal and it’s part of the rules of the House. GET OVER IT

If there's a general election, i really will question whether we live in a democratic country anymore....

se9addick

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.

HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.

You do understand what’s at play here ? If the vote falls next week it’s perfectly appropriate that the opposition calls a vote of no confidence. They can in fact call one at any point. Labour would dearly love a general election and the rules allow them to take this approach in order to try to force one. They do of course have to win that vote in order for anything to happen. The usual state of things means that a government with a majority would defeat the no confidence vote. However. As the DUP are the difference in their “support” arrangement with the government should they decide that they as @se9addick has suggested think May has shafted them and consequently decide to vote with the opposition parties.

It’s democratic. It’s legal and it’s part of the rules of the House. GET OVER IT

If there's a general election, i really will question whether we live in a democratic country anymore....

What an oxymoronic thing to say!

Rothko

WSS said:

Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.

Or is that giving her too much credit?

I think she's over compensated for her remain position, the over the top belief on immigration is part of it, she thinks the leave vote is mainly about that, but to the ERG it's all about imagined sovereignty and being a mercantile trading nation of the 1850s. What the ERG and the leave elite will never admit, is there version of Brexit would have got about 20% by itself, when you stirred in a load of casual racism, xenophobia and lies about spending on public services, did they get the numbers up.

ShootersHillGuru

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

kentaddick

se9addick said:

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.

HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.

You do understand what’s at play here ? If the vote falls next week it’s perfectly appropriate that the opposition calls a vote of no confidence. They can in fact call one at any point. Labour would dearly love a general election and the rules allow them to take this approach in order to try to force one. They do of course have to win that vote in order for anything to happen. The usual state of things means that a government with a majority would defeat the no confidence vote. However. As the DUP are the difference in their “support” arrangement with the government should they decide that they as @se9addick has suggested think May has shafted them and consequently decide to vote with the opposition parties.

It’s democratic. It’s legal and it’s part of the rules of the House. GET OVER IT

If there's a general election, i really will question whether we live in a democratic country anymore....

What an oxymoronic thing to say!

se9addick

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).

Fiiish

kentaddick said:

se9addick said:

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.

HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.

You do understand what’s at play here ? If the vote falls next week it’s perfectly appropriate that the opposition calls a vote of no confidence. They can in fact call one at any point. Labour would dearly love a general election and the rules allow them to take this approach in order to try to force one. They do of course have to win that vote in order for anything to happen. The usual state of things means that a government with a majority would defeat the no confidence vote. However. As the DUP are the difference in their “support” arrangement with the government should they decide that they as @se9addick has suggested think May has shafted them and consequently decide to vote with the opposition parties.

It’s democratic. It’s legal and it’s part of the rules of the House. GET OVER IT

If there's a general election, i really will question whether we live in a democratic country anymore....

What an oxymoronic thing to say!

Good whooshing. Poe's Law strikes again. As the Brexit case becomes more and more ridiculous it is becoming legitimately impossible to differentiate legitimate pro-Brexit posts from the parodies, such is the farce this has descended into.

ShootersHillGuru

se9addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).

I think it’s possible under a Labour government because despite their rhetoric that they could deliver a deal their options are very restricted. However. They need for the WA to fall. Win a vote of no confidence and then a general election.

I don’t see Norway under this government.

kentaddick

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).

I think it’s possible under a Labour government because despite their rhetoric that they could deliver a deal their options are very restricted. However. They need for the WA to fall. Win a vote of no confidence and then a general election.

I don’t see Norway under this government.

Personally i want a Norway +++ deal, in which we can veto rubbish laws bought through the EU and be able to trade freely with other EU nations. Who's with me?

ShootersHillGuru

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).

I think it’s possible under a Labour government because despite their rhetoric that they could deliver a deal their options are very restricted. However. They need for the WA to fall. Win a vote of no confidence and then a general election.

I don’t see Norway under this government.

Personally i want a Norway +++ deal, in which we can veto rubbish laws bought through the EU and be able to trade freely with other EU nations. Who's with me?

I know 27 that are not.

bobmunro

se9addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).

My take on the likely outcomes in order of probability:

- Extension of Article 50 to allow further (likely futile) negotiations
- Second referendum - result we stay in
- EEA - I can see that happening but makes absolutely zero sense over staying in the EU
- May's deal
- No deal (no chance)

A forced General Election via a no confidence vote or a commons vote to hold a second referendum would trigger the first one.

Leuth

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).

I think it’s possible under a Labour government because despite their rhetoric that they could deliver a deal their options are very restricted. However. They need for the WA to fall. Win a vote of no confidence and then a general election.

I don’t see Norway under this government.

Personally i want a Norway +++ deal, in which we can veto rubbish laws bought through the EU and be able to trade freely with other EU nations. Who's with me?

I like this. Blue passports, though, so the people know we've left

ShootersHillGuru

bobmunro said:

se9addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).

My take on the likely outcomes in order of probability:

- Extension of Article 50 to allow further (likely futile) negotiations
- Second referendum - result we stay in
- EEA - I can see that happening but makes absolutely zero sense over staying in the EU
- May's deal
- No deal (no chance)

A forced General Election via a no confidence vote or a commons vote to hold a second referendum would trigger the first one.

Wouldn’t EEA require every EU country and every member of the EEA to agree ? That would take quite a lot of time and not an easy and quick option.

bobmunro

ShootersHillGuru said:

bobmunro said:

se9addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).

My take on the likely outcomes in order of probability:

- Extension of Article 50 to allow further (likely futile) negotiations
- Second referendum - result we stay in
- EEA - I can see that happening but makes absolutely zero sense over staying in the EU
- May's deal
- No deal (no chance)

A forced General Election via a no confidence vote or a commons vote to hold a second referendum would trigger the first one.

Wouldn’t EEA require every EU country and every member of the EEA to agree ? That would take quite a lot of time and not an easy and quick option.

It would likely require the first option as a prerequisite.

ShootersHillGuru

bobmunro said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

bobmunro said:

se9addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).

My take on the likely outcomes in order of probability:

- Extension of Article 50 to allow further (likely futile) negotiations
- Second referendum - result we stay in
- EEA - I can see that happening but makes absolutely zero sense over staying in the EU
- May's deal
- No deal (no chance)

A forced General Election via a no confidence vote or a commons vote to hold a second referendum would trigger the first one.

Wouldn’t EEA require every EU country and every member of the EEA to agree ? That would take quite a lot of time and not an easy and quick option.

It would likely require the first option as a prerequisite.

The other problem is that it is now enshrined in U.K. law that we leave the EU on 29th March. For any other option to happen we need a new law.

kentaddick

ShootersHillGuru said:

kentaddick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

se9addick said:

Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.

For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.

Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.

Can’t see it being accepted.

I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).

I think it’s possible under a Labour government because despite their rhetoric that they could deliver a deal their options are very restricted. However. They need for the WA to fall. Win a vote of no confidence and then a general election.

I don’t see Norway under this government.

Personally i want a Norway +++ deal, in which we can veto rubbish laws bought through the EU and be able to trade freely with other EU nations. Who's with me?

I know 27 that are not.

Well, good thing is i'm so good at negotiating this Norway +++ deal that it's what we've already got.

Thank you, thank you. I'll take my knighthood and ride off into the sunset.

Callumcafc

Covered End said:

WSS said:

Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.

Or is that giving her too much credit?

I said that about 50 pages ago. I definitely, think there's an element of this.

We are in this situation because the deal is sh*t. The deal was always going to be sh*t no matter who led the Brexit process.

This isn’t some master stroke by May to dumb down a deal and force a change of direction. She genuinely went out to get the best deal possible and this is what she was given.

As a neutral it’s not May’s fault she got a sh*t deal. As a Tory sceptic I’m banging my head against a wall already with the people jumping to call her a champion of Remain.