Brexit diminishes the status of the EU and will potentially kickstart its disbandment. Doubt they want this and any short term benefit for them will be overshadowed by the long term implications
No winners in this other than perhaps Putin.
Pretty sure they'll miss the £9 billion net annual contribution?
Yeah it's not like we get anything for that
If I gave you £9 billion this year, the things I'd expect back from you would make your fillings rattle. Nine billion quid. In 12 months. Net.
Thought you said you voted Remain. Why were you happy about contributing £9billion in 2016 but see it as a problem now?
I'm responding to a post that said no one is happy with the situation. I've always been sure the EU (and NATO if we extend the simple thinking) are more positive about the UK than anyone on this thread has expressed.
I'd rather be in than out, but as I've said before, the only plus side is the membership fees we pay can at least be used to offset the sky falling in to some limited extent.
That’s absolutely right for the period after we stop paying them, which is unclear to me.
I know we are fairly committed to paying out the current funding round which I think is 2020 but in total around £35-40bn.
You have done an excellent job in seeking to show that Corbyn is not as anti -Brexit as portrayed. By "portrayed" you refer to the media, but by extension you implicitly suggest (quite reasonably) that some of us are wrongly portraying his position on here.
Here is the problem. I am sure we all agree that politics is about getting your message across. I am one of several regulars on here, who criticise Corbyn but who would rather pull out their own teeth than vote Tory. In other words, people who either do, or would be inclined to, vote Labour in normal times. (Indeed I voted Labour last time, but I voted for the pro-Remain Spanner, Clive Efford, and not Corbyn.)
So how is it possible, if Corbyn's position is so coherent, that we have all misunderstood it? You implicitly and courteously suggest that we have believed the media lies. Do I and others in this group really look that gullible that we cannot sift through the media bollocks? In my case I voted for Ken Livingston as GLC head, and Neil Kinnock twice, when the overall tone of media comment, and indeed the views of my peers (at work especially) was far more hostile overall to a Labour government than it is now.
How come we could see through the anti Labour propaganda then, but apparently be duped by it now? Are you really suggesting that the Labour media machine cannot get as much share of voice and clarity on policies as Neil Kinnock in 1987? Well that goes entirely against the praise heaped on the Momentum social media machine and activists for the 2017 result, doesn't it?
It’s not about suggesting that anyone is ‘gullible’ or about media ‘lies’. My posts focussed on how Corbyn’s role in the EU referendum campaign has been portrayed.
What the the Loughborouh analysis of media coverage that I posted showed was not that the media lied but that they primarily reported on the ‘Dave vs Boris’ Remain/Leave battle in the Tory party.
As their report said: “Seven of the top ten people and half of all people in the top thirty [of media coverage] are Conservative politicians. In all, they account for 73% of the total number of appearances in the top thirty”.
Which bears out Angela Eagle’s comment of 13th June 2016: “if we are not reported, it is very difficult. This whole thing is about Tory big beasts having a battle like rutting stags”
However, there were lies about Corbyn’s role – but, in the main, on this issue they did not originate in the media.
The quote from Angela Eagle above is part of the longer quote from my first post on this issue where she also said:
“Jeremy [Corbyn] is up and down the country, pursuing an itinerary that would make a 25-year-old tired, he has not stopped”. Angela Eagle 13th June 2016
But barely two weeks later when she resigned from the shadow cabinet in preparation for her later abandoned leadership bid she said in her resignation letter:
"I was devastated by the result of the EU referendum,..and I believe this happened, in part, because under your leadership the case to remain in the EU was made with half-hearted ambivalene rather than full-throated clarity."
Angela Eagle resignation letter Monday 27th June 2016
This then became the narrative for the PLP’s attempted ‘coup’ against Corbyn and the subsequent Owen Smith leadership challenge. The media have continued to repeat this view as fact and it has become accepted as a ‘truth’; despite the evidence from the Lord Ashcroft Polls, that I posted, that Labour supporters voted 63% for Remain, only just behind the 64% of SNP supporters who voted Remain in Scotland.
In fact, given the SNP’s sweeping victory in Scotland only a year previously in the 2015 General Election and their subsequent dominance of Scottish politics, to then ‘only’ manage to persuade 64% of their supporters to vote Remain makes Labour supporters’ 63% for Remain actually seem something of an achievement for Labour (and arguably Corbyn).
That assumes a direct correlation between Corbyn's campaigning and how labour voters voted in the referendum, an issue that as we know went across traditional party lines.
I note you were at first using Eagle as a positive reference for the Dear Leader but are now dismissing her later comments made when she was no longer part of the shadow cabinet and bound by collective responsibility.
And having pulled me up for not offering evidence you've not responded to kentaddick's evidence.
Who needs the Tory press to kick Corbyn when we have Henry? Mick was not supporting JC per se but highlighting Eagle's u-turn in light of her leadership challenge. Tell us again how he is a racist, but with a quote from his mouth.
Since you ask, he is an anti-Semitic friend of racist, homophobic, misogynist terrorists but that is for another thread. This is the EU thread. Lets just focus on his dishonesty over his desire for the UK to leave the EU.
Night, night.
Never knew he was a friend of these types, what pub in Islington do they drink in?
Or does he just have dialogue with them, like those Tories who met terrorists like Adams, Mandela, Castro, and Walensa. While we court Trump, the Saudis, Putin and others who specialise in those attributes you highlight.
Yes this is the EU thread, Brexit invented by Tories, incompetently framed by Tories, prematurely triggered by Tories, laughably mismanaged by Tories who still have no united vision of what it looks like. Is Jezza incompetent or keeping his powder dry? If he came out with a more specific stance, you and others would be digging him out on a situation he didn't invent or have any control over.
Remind me of your Brexit stance Henry; solution for Irish Borders, plans (or not) for increased customs/passport checks, new product and food standards, Eurotom, Air corridors, JIT supply chains, multi-country engineering, labour shortages, visas, ex-pat status, Calais camp for non-EU, ECJ issues, chlorinated chicken, 20 of our new potential trade deals objecting to our WTO terms, goods and medical shortages, M25 car park, loss of police co-operation, corporate relocation, tax receipts plummeting, NHS meltdown............................ fuck it, can't be arsed, going to bed as well. At least we have £9bn to cover it. JRM reckons we will be back on track within 50 years.
Easy to criticise, harder to justify. Look forward to dozens of posts on benefits of Brexit, TM's or otherwise.
Momentarily breaking my self imposed Brexit exile to say that he looks like he’s about to do a rendition of imagine by John Lennon the way he’s cropped in that photo
Momentarily breaking my self imposed Brexit exile to say that he looks like he’s about to do a rendition of imagine by John Lennon the way he’s cropped in that photo
We've missed you Cabbles. Have you thought about coming back?
Momentarily breaking my self imposed Brexit exile to say that he looks like he’s about to do a rendition of imagine by John Lennon the way he’s cropped in that photo
We've missed you Cabbles. Have you thought about coming back?
Ha, happy to play a watching brief from the sidelines
Gonna be a very crazy couple of months now. Intrigued to see if the ERG push for a vote of no confidence now. That would really make things interesting
Momentarily breaking my self imposed Brexit exile to say that he looks like he’s about to do a rendition of imagine by John Lennon the way he’s cropped in that photo
We've missed you Cabbles. Have you thought about coming back?
Ha, happy to play a watching brief from the sidelines
Gonna be a very crazy couple of months now. Intrigued to see if the ERG push for a vote of no confidence now. That would really make things interesting
Well that worked well, looks like you couldn't help adding that second paragraph
Watching Newsnight. I continue to be astonished at the poor quality and uninspiring MPs that Labour allow to make its case on TV. Chuka Umunna is an honourable exception.
Absolutely agree. Among the new ministers that consistently astound me with their (lack of) coherence and intellect are Richard Burgon and Rebecca Long- Bailey. Absolutely embarrassing. And look at the experienced effective people who are sidelined.
It's like Corbyn has put out a Checkatrade Trophy team with Emily Thornberry playing the Darren Pratley role.
Watching Newsnight. I continue to be astonished at the poor quality and uninspiring MPs that Labour allow to make its case on TV. Chuka Umunna is an honourable exception.
Absolutely agree. Among the new ministers that consistently astound me with their (lack of) coherence and intellect are Richard Burgon and Rebecca Long- Bailey. Absolutely embarrassing. And look at the experienced effective people who are sidelined.
It's like Corbyn has put out a Checkatrade Trophy team with Emily Thornberry playing the Darren Pratley role.
So that’s why charlton aren’t winning the league, if the horrible mainstream media just stopped writing about how we haven’t won matches (we still win a lot) then we would be top of the league!
So the EU 27 will meet on the 25th November to discuss and ratify the two and a half year in the making draft deal only for the UK to reject it a couple of weeks later.
The rest of Europe must think somebody has put something in the water here. If any British government has presided over a cock up as big as this one then I’d like to be reminded of it.
You have done an excellent job in seeking to show that Corbyn is not as anti -Brexit as portrayed. By "portrayed" you refer to the media, but by extension you implicitly suggest (quite reasonably) that some of us are wrongly portraying his position on here.
Here is the problem. I am sure we all agree that politics is about getting your message across. I am one of several regulars on here, who criticise Corbyn but who would rather pull out their own teeth than vote Tory. In other words, people who either do, or would be inclined to, vote Labour in normal times. (Indeed I voted Labour last time, but I voted for the pro-Remain Spanner, Clive Efford, and not Corbyn.)
So how is it possible, if Corbyn's position is so coherent, that we have all misunderstood it? You implicitly and courteously suggest that we have believed the media lies. Do I and others in this group really look that gullible that we cannot sift through the media bollocks? In my case I voted for Ken Livingston as GLC head, and Neil Kinnock twice, when the overall tone of media comment, and indeed the views of my peers (at work especially) was far more hostile overall to a Labour government than it is now.
How come we could see through the anti Labour propaganda then, but apparently be duped by it now? Are you really suggesting that the Labour media machine cannot get as much share of voice and clarity on policies as Neil Kinnock in 1987? Well that goes entirely against the praise heaped on the Momentum social media machine and activists for the 2017 result, doesn't it?
It’s not about suggesting that anyone is ‘gullible’ or about media ‘lies’. My posts focussed on how Corbyn’s role in the EU referendum campaign has been portrayed.
What the the Loughborouh analysis of media coverage that I posted showed was not that the media lied but that they primarily reported on the ‘Dave vs Boris’ Remain/Leave battle in the Tory party.
As their report said: “Seven of the top ten people and half of all people in the top thirty [of media coverage] are Conservative politicians. In all, they account for 73% of the total number of appearances in the top thirty”.
Which bears out Angela Eagle’s comment of 13th June 2016: “if we are not reported, it is very difficult. This whole thing is about Tory big beasts having a battle like rutting stags”
However, there were lies about Corbyn’s role – but, in the main, on this issue they did not originate in the media.
The quote from Angela Eagle above is part of the longer quote from my first post on this issue where she also said:
“Jeremy [Corbyn] is up and down the country, pursuing an itinerary that would make a 25-year-old tired, he has not stopped”. Angela Eagle 13th June 2016
But barely two weeks later when she resigned from the shadow cabinet in preparation for her later abandoned leadership bid she said in her resignation letter:
"I was devastated by the result of the EU referendum,..and I believe this happened, in part, because under your leadership the case to remain in the EU was made with half-hearted ambivalene rather than full-throated clarity."
Angela Eagle resignation letter Monday 27th June 2016
This then became the narrative for the PLP’s attempted ‘coup’ against Corbyn and the subsequent Owen Smith leadership challenge. The media have continued to repeat this view as fact and it has become accepted as a ‘truth’; despite the evidence from the Lord Ashcroft Polls, that I posted, that Labour supporters voted 63% for Remain, only just behind the 64% of SNP supporters who voted Remain in Scotland.
In fact, given the SNP’s sweeping victory in Scotland only a year previously in the 2015 General Election and their subsequent dominance of Scottish politics, to then ‘only’ manage to persuade 64% of their supporters to vote Remain makes Labour supporters’ 63% for Remain actually seem something of an achievement for Labour (and arguably Corbyn).
That assumes a direct correlation between Corbyn's campaigning and how labour voters voted in the referendum, an issue that as we know went across traditional party lines.
I note you were at first using Eagle as a positive reference for the Dear Leader but are now dismissing her later comments made when she was no longer part of the shadow cabinet and bound by collective responsibility.
And having pulled me up for not offering evidence you've not responded to kentaddick's evidence.
Who needs the Tory press to kick Corbyn when we have Henry? Mick was not supporting JC per se but highlighting Eagle's u-turn in light of her leadership challenge. Tell us again how he is a racist, but with a quote from his mouth.
Since you ask, he is an anti-Semitic friend of racist, homophobic, misogynist terrorists but that is for another thread. This is the EU thread. Lets just focus on his dishonesty over his desire for the UK to leave the EU.
Night, night.
Never knew he was a friend of these types, what pub in Islington do they drink in?
Or does he just have dialogue with them, like those Tories who met terrorists like Adams, Mandela, Castro, and Walensa. While we court Trump, the Saudis, Putin and others who specialise in those attributes you highlight.
Yes this is the EU thread, Brexit invented by Tories, incompetently framed by Tories, prematurely triggered by Tories, laughably mismanaged by Tories who still have no united vision of what it looks like. Is Jezza incompetent or keeping his powder dry? If he came out with a more specific stance, you and others would be digging him out on a situation he didn't invent or have any control over.
Remind me of your Brexit stance Henry; solution for Irish Borders, plans (or not) for increased customs/passport checks, new product and food standards, Eurotom, Air corridors, JIT supply chains, multi-country engineering, labour shortages, visas, ex-pat status, Calais camp for non-EU, ECJ issues, chlorinated chicken, 20 of our new potential trade deals objecting to our WTO terms, goods and medical shortages, M25 car park, loss of police co-operation, corporate relocation, tax receipts plummeting, NHS meltdown............................ fuck it, can't be arsed, going to bed as well. At least we have £9bn to cover it. JRM reckons we will be back on track within 50 years.
Easy to criticise, harder to justify. Look forward to dozens of posts on benefits of Brexit, TM's or otherwise.
I voted remain and would do so again if there was another referendum.
Tim Montgomerie, a Conservative commentator and the founder of the Conservative Home website, has said that he would accept the draft Brexit withdrawal deal despite his misgivings.
"I've been a huge critic of Theresa May and I think there were many times when the Conservative Party should have ousted her as leader, because I feared that she would bring back something of an inadequate agreement that we are now seeing," he tells the Today programme.
"But I will accept and vote for what she has brought back, simply because time has run out. I think those Conservative MPs are weighing in their minds the advantages and disadvantages of this agreement also need to think about the implications for the country [and] for the Tory reputation for economic competence."
Even now the Tories are mindful that people might think them economically incompetent rather than do what they believe would be best for the long term good of the country.
Will Corbyn three line whip his MPs as he's done before and will many vote with May regardless or abstain.
Will may do a deal with the SNP and PC?
Daily Mail and Express both backing the deal.
How many Tories want another election?
I’d imagine the vast majority of Labour, some Tory (on both sides of the argument) and all of the SNP & DUP will vote against this. She’ll be lucky to get much more than 200 votes in favour and it’ll be miles short of passing.
Will Corbyn three line whip his MPs as he's done before and will many vote with May regardless or abstain.
Will may do a deal with the SNP and PC?
Daily Mail and Express both backing the deal.
How many Tories want another election?
Thought exactly the same until reading what’s being said by the protagonists this morning.
Will she get the chance ? The hardcore brexiteer faction of the Conservatives are seeing their Brexit slip away. Perhaps a leadership challenge is the last throw of the dice for them. Having said that perhaps May could see that challenge off ? Not sure what deal she could offer the SNP or DUP to gain their support. Nothing in that draft at this point can be altered without going back to the table. Labour will vote pretty much vote en bloc to reject it so it seems and I’m sure at least a dozen Tories would also be voting it down. Julian Smith will bully the junior backbenchers to support it but I can’t see the deal passing muster when voted upon.
Peston reporting that he’s been told that 48 letters of no confidence in Theresa May will be handed in by Tory MPs today which will mean a leadership challenge:
Comments
I know we are fairly committed to paying out the current funding round which I think is 2020 but in total around £35-40bn.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7886
My very basic maths suggests if the net contribution is around £9m a year, it’s 4-5 years before we start to make money after paying for the divorce?
Or does he just have dialogue with them, like those Tories who met terrorists like Adams, Mandela, Castro, and Walensa. While we court Trump, the Saudis, Putin and others who specialise in those attributes you highlight.
Yes this is the EU thread, Brexit invented by Tories, incompetently framed by Tories, prematurely triggered by Tories, laughably mismanaged by Tories who still have no united vision of what it looks like. Is Jezza incompetent or keeping his powder dry? If he came out with a more specific stance, you and others would be digging him out on a situation he didn't invent or have any control over.
Remind me of your Brexit stance Henry; solution for Irish Borders, plans (or not) for increased customs/passport checks, new product and food standards, Eurotom, Air corridors, JIT supply chains, multi-country engineering, labour shortages, visas, ex-pat status, Calais camp for non-EU, ECJ issues, chlorinated chicken, 20 of our new potential trade deals objecting to our WTO terms, goods and medical shortages, M25 car park, loss of police co-operation, corporate relocation, tax receipts plummeting, NHS meltdown............................ fuck it, can't be arsed, going to bed as well. At least we have £9bn to cover it. JRM reckons we will be back on track within 50 years.
Easy to criticise, harder to justify. Look forward to dozens of posts on benefits of Brexit, TM's or otherwise.
Gonna be a very crazy couple of months now. Intrigued to see if the ERG push for a vote of no confidence now. That would really make things interesting
It's like Corbyn has put out a Checkatrade Trophy team with Emily Thornberry playing the Darren Pratley role.
The rest of Europe must think somebody has put something in the water here. If any British government has presided over a cock up as big as this one then I’d like to be reminded of it.
Sorry to have shot your fox.
Time to start stockpiling tins of beans and penicillin I think!
Tim Montgomerie, a Conservative commentator and the founder of the Conservative Home website, has said that he would accept the draft Brexit withdrawal deal despite his misgivings.
"I've been a huge critic of Theresa May and I think there were many times when the Conservative Party should have ousted her as leader, because I feared that she would bring back something of an inadequate agreement that we are now seeing," he tells the Today programme.
"But I will accept and vote for what she has brought back, simply because time has run out. I think those Conservative MPs are weighing in their minds the advantages and disadvantages of this agreement also need to think about the implications for the country [and] for the Tory reputation for economic competence."
Even now the Tories are mindful that people might think them economically incompetent rather than do what they believe would be best for the long term good of the country.
I’ve got news for you Tim. That horse has bolted.
Domino effect now ?
Will Corbyn three line whip his MPs as he's done before and will many vote with May regardless or abstain.
Will may do a deal with the SNP and PC?
Daily Mail and Express both backing the deal.
How many Tories want another election?
Conservatives will vote for it because they don't want an election.
There'll be a few MPs that sway against the party line because they actually have beliefs and convictions beyond saving their own skins.
Will she get the chance ? The hardcore brexiteer faction of the Conservatives are seeing their Brexit slip away. Perhaps a leadership challenge is the last throw of the dice for them. Having said that perhaps May could see that challenge off ? Not sure what deal she could offer the SNP or DUP to gain their support. Nothing in that draft at this point can be altered without going back to the table. Labour will vote pretty much vote en bloc to reject it so it seems and I’m sure at least a dozen Tories would also be voting it down. Julian Smith will bully the junior backbenchers to support it but I can’t see the deal passing muster when voted upon.
Fascinating stuff.