More terrible news for the UK economy. Manufacturing PMI up from forecast 55.8 to 56.3.............Despite Brexit obviously! Construction PMI expected to come in above forecast tomorrow as well.
How can it be despite Brexit? Brexit hasn't happened yet.
These 58 industries that they’ve written Brexit reports for but not read/released. I like to think I have an okay knowledge of business/commerce. It looks like it’s pretty much every industry I can think of. Wouldn’t it have been easier for them to release reports on the industries that are going to be okay
The fact that these reports exist and it is now public knowledge as to their existence, means they must be released.
The problem is that there is a (quite legitimate) exemption from the general public rights of access to information under FOI - s35 in case anyone wants to have a look on the ICO website - which relates to the formulation of government policy. It is designed to allow for a safe space in which issues can be discussed freely and options considered (some of which may never be likely to be adopted). The fear is, that without this, decision making would become impossible, because officials might be less willing to mention less palatable options
Unfortunately, because the Government still seems to be formulating its policy regarding Brexit on the hoof, papers that outline options and scenarios, it is likely that the issues remain "live", and will continue to do so.
On the other hand, it is remarkable that the Government is/was unwilling to even identify the sectors covered by the reports.
So when multinationals explicitly state they are shifting staff or resources abroad due to how they perceive Brexit is being handled, or foreign investors are withholding investment into the UK, or asset managers are losing confidence in UK growth long term, again explicitly because of Brexit, that's pathetic.
Also what repeated Remainer response? Are you suggesting that any good economic news is because of Brexit?
The facts speak for themselves. Despite all of the negative claptrap and talking down of the UK as a whole and it's economy by self proclaimed experts over the last 16 months the economy is doing rather better than you or they would like to admit. That must really stick in your throat!
The facts speak for themselves. Despite all of the negative claptrap and talking down of the UK as a whole and it's economy by self proclaimed experts over the last 16 months the economy is doing rather better than you or they would like to admit. That must really stick in your throat!
Not really. Most of us understand that a) we haven't left the EU yet and b) global market conditions are generally on the up after one of the worst financial shocks in the last 30 years and there's no reason why the UK should not be also growing. The Eurozone is actually doing much better than the UK but let's not let the facts get in the way of a good whinge.
There's no talking down of the economy here. What there is is people expressing rational concerns that the current handling of Brexit is counterproductive to the long term interests of the UK.
Fiiish let's just wait and see what happens shall we? Or do you have some insider info? I am not getting involved in arguments about rumours and counter rumours, real facts or fake facts. We will see what the outcome is if and when it happens.
Fiiish let's just wait and see what happens shall we? Or do you have some insider info? I am not getting involved in arguments about rumours and counter rumours, real facts or fake facts. We will see what the outcome is if and when it happens.
The “insider info” Fiiish has comes from every respected and credible financial forecast on the planet.
How can it be despite Brexit? Brexit hasn't happened yet.
Just quoting the pathetic and repeated remainer response to positive news.
It is reasonably good news but wouldn't any expert or interested party worth their salt want to analyse what the figures mean. Do you have any information on the following. How much is as a result of the low rate of the GBP? Would the figures have been different had we not had the Brexit vote? Is it sustainable and/or is it matched by business confidence?
Fiiish let's just wait and see what happens shall we? Or do you have some insider info? I am not getting involved in arguments about rumours and counter rumours, real facts or fake facts. We will see what the outcome is if and when it happens.
Let's see what happens isn't exactly a rational approach. The problem is there are lots of very real consequences if we leave the EU with no deal, both for businesses and families here and those operating on the continent. Their future depends on how these negotiations are going. In the eyes of most people, the negotiations are going poorly. Those are the facts.
It is reasonably good news but wouldn't any expert or interested party worth their salt want to analyse what the figures mean. Do you have any information on the following. How much is as a result of the low rate of the GBP? Would the figures have been different had we not had the Brexit vote? Is it sustainable and/or is it matched by business confidence?
Look, if you want to analyse the info feel free to do so. I am not doing it for you. Where did I state that I am a financial analyst? I am a forex trader and I rely on economic news releases to make an income. I am not saying I am Bloomberg but I do have a general and up to date idea of what is happening around the globe on an economic level.
It was posted last week. Unfortunately I can't get behind the notion that most Leavers wanted to give the establishment a kicking. Most Leavers voted principally due to sovereignty, borders and immigration. It might serve as a comfort to self-flagellating luvvies and media types who feel out of touch with normal people, but there is little credible evidence that Leavers voted leave because they fear the establishment. The sad truth is the Leave campaign was better.
@seriously_red"Quite simply, it's nothing to do with lack of democracy and everything to do with Moral Hazard. For if Greece had secured debt forgiveness then populists would walk the floor in the Italian and Spanish elections, crash their economies and probably crash the Euro too."
I am not taking a view on what Varoufakis should have expected. It's a view on how Varoufakis illuminates EU control through empowered functionaries, rather than the outcome of any effective debate.
Greece was never going to be able to deliver the financial demands and the austerity programme imposed on it was draconian. Varoufakis simply wanted acknowledgement that he had a mandate from the people to present an alternative austerity programme that Greece could deliver, which allowed a budget surplus to be targeted and was in the interests if Greece's creditors. The EU never gave him that opportunity even though Varoufakis was not so stupid as not to have previously obtained support from leading economists, the major stakeholders, including the IMF, the major EU Finance Ministers, the ECB and even Junckers that his proposals were sound, and that the original Schrauble plans had been a failure and were untenable. These parties turned out to have no effective power to limit Schauble's absolute control through his ability to misuse and abuse protocol.
I suggest you read the book. Varafoukis was not asking for "debt forgiveness" clearly the media briefings that were organised against him have had the desired effect. If it had been correctly reported it would have been "austerity forgiveness" he was seeking in return for long dated bonds replacing crippling loan repayments that would never be manageable without space to grow the economy.
The Eurozone will inevitably crash at some point in time unless full monetary and political union is achieved. It will survive through implementation of Macon and other EU nation Ministers' entirely sensible objective of "closer union" i.e the European Central bank under political control of the EU. The Greek crisis only arose because the monetary union was created without political union, and that was not because it was a mistake, it was because it was a necessary stepping stone given a leap into full monetary and political union in one step would not have been possible.
It is difficult to conceive of the UK being outside the Eurozone with full monetary and political union, yet still within the EU. EFTA would in that scenario look much more practical. Promotion of EFTA by Remainers who are anti Eurozone I accept makes sense, even if for different reasons.
The facts speak for themselves. Despite all of the negative claptrap and talking down of the UK as a whole and it's economy by self proclaimed experts over the last 16 months the economy is doing rather better than you or they would like to admit. That must really stick in your throat!
But just imagine how well the economy would be doing had we voted remain
What are the chances of these industry assessments that the gov't are trying to keep under wraps actually getting released ?
I think if they were published it would just prove beyond doubt exactly how weak the governments position actually is in negotiating Brexit. If it was positive news it would only prove to strengthen our hand.
It is reasonably good news but wouldn't any expert or interested party worth their salt want to analyse what the figures mean. Do you have any information on the following. How much is as a result of the low rate of the GBP? Would the figures have been different had we not had the Brexit vote? Is it sustainable and/or is it matched by business confidence?
Look, if you want to analyse the info feel free to do so. I am not doing it for you. Where did I state that I am a financial analyst? I am a forex trader and I rely on economic news releases to make an income. I am not saying I am Bloomberg but I do have a general and up to date idea of what is happening around the globe on an economic level.
But you are enough of an analyst to give the opinion that it was despite Brexit and then have a dig at remainers or those that want a bit more information behind the headline.
I tend to follow the golden rule that if I can't back something up with some evidence then I don't post it.
>I am not a financial analyst >I have to use my judgment of financial situations to make a living >Anyone who has an opinion on future financial events is wrong
Can someone help me reconcile these 3 characteristics?
@stonemuse I defer to you on your detailed knowledge of global trade issues, and @NornIrishAddick has admirably responded.
The one point which runs through your remarks including the possibility of us joining EFTA, it seems to me, is a typical British failure to consider the people on the other side of the table. Yes of course from a UK point of view, we could say to India, hey give us the same terms as the EU, we can do a deal double quick. Oh sure, from our point of view. But the Indian point of view..."what's your market size again? 65m, you say...? We will get back to you, we need to tie the EU thing up first and then there is China...What's that? Remember the Commonwealth?..Yes exactly we remember it all too well, that's the problem...Bye for now" Of course I have made it sound frivolous but I have heard exactly those sentiments described in the media by those who know India at govt level. Further, India is hugely bureaucratic. They are in no hurry to conclude a deal with us, so all their civil service firepower will be concentrated where they need it.
EFTA is a variant on the same theme. I will try and find a reference but I have several times read that the Norwegians don't particularly want us in EFTA because currently the members are all of similar economic size. They fear that the UK will come in and start throwing its weight around. How on earth the Norwegians could gain that impression, I cannot begin to think...anyone would think that the British have an international reputation for arrogance.
@Dippenhall Varoufakis, eh? I will read the book, I am sure it is a good read, as he is a compelling speaker, and I read some good excerpts. Really didn't think he was your kind of cove, though. He's not mine at the end of the day, as he has represented the most feckless, dishonest, innately corrupt country in the EU and never once admitted in any way that Greece has such characteristics, which are significantly responsible for its current plight. Does he do so in the book? Don't tell me it's inevitable because of the Euro. Our neighbours Slovakia, smaller than Greece, with a significant peasant and Romany tail to the population (unlike the Czechs), and emerging from a Communist past, is flourishing in the euro. Normally you are very keen to bear down on feckless fiscal and economic behaviour wherever you find it. Are you writing from Santorini after a couple of ouzos? That would explain it.
@PragueAddick I am sure I said somewhere in my numerous posts that it is all down to negotiation. And by that, I mean both sides benefit.
I think you know full well that if I had ignored ‘the other side of the table’ in my career, it would have been short-lived.
That is never the way I approach things - it has to be mutually beneficial. In addition, the Brits I have worked with over the years do not have this apparent ‘typical British failure’ ... I find that quite insulting and demeaning.
No one would last long in international trade with such an outlook and approach.
Comments
Unfortunately, because the Government still seems to be formulating its policy regarding Brexit on the hoof, papers that outline options and scenarios, it is likely that the issues remain "live", and will continue to do so.
On the other hand, it is remarkable that the Government is/was unwilling to even identify the sectors covered by the reports.
Just quoting the pathetic and repeated remainer response to positive news.
Yep. Facts are pathetic.
Also what repeated Remainer response? Are you suggesting that any good economic news is because of Brexit?
There's no talking down of the economy here. What there is is people expressing rational concerns that the current handling of Brexit is counterproductive to the long term interests of the UK.
It is reasonably good news but wouldn't any expert or interested party worth their salt want to analyse what the figures mean.
Do you have any information on the following. How much is as a result of the low rate of the GBP? Would the figures have been different had we not had the Brexit vote? Is it sustainable and/or is it matched by business confidence?
Do you have any information on the following. How much is as a result of the low rate of the GBP? Would the figures have been different had we not had the Brexit vote? Is it sustainable and/or is it matched by business confidence?
Look, if you want to analyse the info feel free to do so. I am not doing it for you. Where did I state that I am a financial analyst? I am a forex trader and I rely on economic news releases to make an income. I am not saying I am Bloomberg but I do have a general and up to date idea of what is happening around the globe on an economic level.
https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/robert-peston-i-dont-appear-to-be-living-in-the-same-britain-as-much-of-the-rest-of-the-country/
Thanks bye now
I am not taking a view on what Varoufakis should have expected. It's a view on how Varoufakis illuminates EU control through empowered functionaries, rather than the outcome of any effective debate.
Greece was never going to be able to deliver the financial demands and the austerity programme imposed on it was draconian. Varoufakis simply wanted acknowledgement that he had a mandate from the people to present an alternative austerity programme that Greece could deliver, which allowed a budget surplus to be targeted and was in the interests if Greece's creditors. The EU never gave him that opportunity even though Varoufakis was not so stupid as not to have previously obtained support from leading economists, the major stakeholders, including the IMF, the major EU Finance Ministers, the ECB and even Junckers that his proposals were sound, and that the original Schrauble plans had been a failure and were untenable. These parties turned out to have no effective power to limit Schauble's absolute control through his ability to misuse and abuse protocol.
I suggest you read the book. Varafoukis was not asking for "debt forgiveness" clearly the media briefings that were organised against him have had the desired effect. If it had been correctly reported it would have been "austerity forgiveness" he was seeking in return for long dated bonds replacing crippling loan repayments that would never be manageable without space to grow the economy.
The Eurozone will inevitably crash at some point in time unless full monetary and political union is achieved. It will survive through implementation of Macon and other EU nation Ministers' entirely sensible objective of "closer union" i.e the European Central bank under political control of the EU. The Greek crisis only arose because the monetary union was created without political union, and that was not because it was a mistake, it was because it was a necessary stepping stone given a leap into full monetary and political union in one step would not have been possible.
It is difficult to conceive of the UK being outside the Eurozone with full monetary and political union, yet still within the EU. EFTA would in that scenario look much more practical. Promotion of EFTA by Remainers who are anti Eurozone I accept makes sense, even if for different reasons.
Thanks bye now
Ok Dazzler
Look, if you want to analyse the info feel free to do so. I am not doing it for you. Where did I state that I am a financial analyst? I am a forex trader and I rely on economic news releases to make an income. I am not saying I am Bloomberg but I do have a general and up to date idea of what is happening around the globe on an economic level.
But you are enough of an analyst to give the opinion that it was despite Brexit and then have a dig at remainers or those that want a bit more information behind the headline.
I tend to follow the golden rule that if I can't back something up with some evidence then I don't post it.
>I have to use my judgment of financial situations to make a living
>Anyone who has an opinion on future financial events is wrong
Can someone help me reconcile these 3 characteristics?
@stonemuse I defer to you on your detailed knowledge of global trade issues, and @NornIrishAddick has admirably responded.
The one point which runs through your remarks including the possibility of us joining EFTA, it seems to me, is a typical British failure to consider the people on the other side of the table. Yes of course from a UK point of view, we could say to India, hey give us the same terms as the EU, we can do a deal double quick. Oh sure, from our point of view. But the Indian point of view..."what's your market size again? 65m, you say...? We will get back to you, we need to tie the EU thing up first and then there is China...What's that? Remember the Commonwealth?..Yes exactly we remember it all too well, that's the problem...Bye for now" Of course I have made it sound frivolous but I have heard exactly those sentiments described in the media by those who know India at govt level. Further, India is hugely bureaucratic. They are in no hurry to conclude a deal with us, so all their civil service firepower will be concentrated where they need it.
EFTA is a variant on the same theme. I will try and find a reference but I have several times read that the Norwegians don't particularly want us in EFTA because currently the members are all of similar economic size. They fear that the UK will come in and start throwing its weight around. How on earth the Norwegians could gain that impression, I cannot begin to think...anyone would think that the British have an international reputation for arrogance.
@Dippenhall Varoufakis, eh? I will read the book, I am sure it is a good read, as he is a compelling speaker, and I read some good excerpts. Really didn't think he was your kind of cove, though. He's not mine at the end of the day, as he has represented the most feckless, dishonest, innately corrupt country in the EU and never once admitted in any way that Greece has such characteristics, which are significantly responsible for its current plight. Does he do so in the book? Don't tell me it's inevitable because of the Euro. Our neighbours Slovakia, smaller than Greece, with a significant peasant and Romany tail to the population (unlike the Czechs), and emerging from a Communist past, is flourishing in the euro. Normally you are very keen to bear down on feckless fiscal and economic behaviour wherever you find it. Are you writing from Santorini after a couple of ouzos? That would explain it.
I think you know full well that if I had ignored ‘the other side of the table’ in my career, it would have been short-lived.
That is never the way I approach things - it has to be mutually beneficial. In addition, the Brits I have worked with over the years do not have this apparent ‘typical British failure’ ... I find that quite insulting and demeaning.
No one would last long in international trade with such an outlook and approach.
I wonder what M Fallon's resignation will do to the balance in Cabinet - we could see more policy wobbles.