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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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    edited March 2018
    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    If there is one thing that the impending sunlit uplands of Brexit has achieved, it is a sudden interest in politics outside the UK.

    However, there is a tendency to view everything through Brexit.

    Euroscepticism is not the same in each country, so it does not follow, for example, that any of the potential governments that might be formed in Italy (and there is every chance of no government and another election) would seek to follow, or support the path being followed by the UK. Indeed, if the next Italian Government seeks to repatriate powers from, or otherwise limit the powers of, the EU, it could actually be damaging to the UK's interests.

    As a fan of liberal democracy, it pains me to see parties of the extreme (either left or right) winning a greater share of the vote than before (as does the apparent normalisation of ideas that I had hoped would be consigned to the dustbin of history).

    But I would caution those who view the outcome, as we know it, of the Italian election as meaning anything significant for the UK. This is partly because Italy has a unique electoral history, since the foundation of the Republic, that has a habit of producing unexpected political outcomes. The nature of any coalition that is created, if any, will determine what sort of policies are followed, and for how long. At the moment, there appear only to be uneasy bedfellows.

    From a UK perspective, in my opinion, the likelihood of extended political horse trading in Italy is quite possibly the worst outcome that could have been imagined. In order to get the best possible trading arrangement, following Brexit (and I doubt very much whether the "vision" outlined on Friday will achieve it), the UK actually needs an EU that is less divided and less caught up with any internal wrangling. Unless, of course, the UK Government wants to leave without any deal.

    The way that the EU operates means that the EU27 have already managed sufficient compromise between themselves to deliver a single negotiating position. Whilst the message coming from the EU27 to date has not been music to the ears of those who are "leading" the UK at the minute, it is at least consistent and coherent. It is much, much easier to negotiate with one party over Brexit, and then any future trading arrangement, than to try to influence competing factions.

    Well you know my view on the 'negotiation' ( ie that there is not one, only the EU saying the same thing over and over and 'soft' Brexiteers-aka Remainers, deluding themselves into hearing something else, Corbyn being the latest to put in the ear plugs).
    However, my point about the decline of Social Democracy across Europe is that these parties have tended to be the most federalist. Macron's EU project needs pro EU parties to be in power to proceed.
    If I were in the negotiations I would be insisting that no deal was better than a bad deal in order to encourage the fragmentation of the EU's bargaining unity. No other approach will work.

    Some of the traditional pre-crash parties are in decline but not Labouur, Portuguese left and M5*. What do these three have in common?
    They are populist anti-austerity. M5* tried to leave the MEP group containing UKIP and join a more liberal coalition.

    So we agree that there is a new pressure on the Euro elite. And the French populist left plus Podemos are also on a healthy 20%.

    And we agree that there is no negotiation - May is talking nonsense. We either take a Canada deal or we ask for a Norway deal. All the rest of her speech is fluff to burn another few months away. The UK either accepts the authority of the ECJ for all the bits affecting business or we are a tad screwed.

    This divergence speak is rubbish - the UK operates under a common code or not. And if we don't then FDI will choose the 500 million consumers over us.
    Fiiish said:

    I mean really saying the EU only exists to promote France and Germany is like saying the UN only exists to combat the Nazi threat.

    So Remainers, any comments on Italy following France and voting for a majority of EU sceptical parties? The tide of history is still moving in only one direction.
    A short term trend isn't a tide, Eurosceptical doesn't mean anti-EU on the continent and people much smarter than you and who actually know what's going on in these countries have already attributed these developments as due to internal issues as opposed to wider malaise at the EU.

    But feel free to continue to spout the same cretinous shit over and over again if it makes you feel better. Just don't do it on this forum.
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    We are all either going to go left or right. It is far better to go left than right. Corbyn isn't just needed in this country!



    Well, anyone who researched the bases of the EU.

    Yes, the original underpinnings were about preventing further war (a remarkably successful project) by ensuring that member states were not in competition with each other, and cooperated in things like heavy industry, etc., and then it moved on to wider areas of integration (which has also proved remarkably successful when you consider the changes that membership has wrought on places as diverse as Ireland, Spain, the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Romania).

    But the EU is not about France and Germany alone.

    Historically, France and Germany have sought (almost always) to work together, because the leaders of both countries have been alive to the perils of competition and conflict between the two nations, but it has not been a case of them agreeing between themselves and everyone else has to fall into line.

    Things are shifting in the EU and the Eurozone is five years out of the 2010-12 crisis with some regions and countries doing better than others. Long story short there is a set of MEP elections in June 2019 and these will be jumped on by populist parties. Until now the centre left and centre right have held between 50-70% of the MEPs but these are the parties who have NOT provided solutions for the mass of voters. These are the neoliberal parties who backed austerity as well as failing to come up with immigration solutions for the Mediteranean.

    Whether it is immigration, job opportunities or pay, ordinary people in Europe have been caught by the same forces as those which drove the Brexit vote. The difference is that there are groups like DieM25 set up by Varoufakis and others which has links to populist parties on the left. And we have M5* which apparently tried to leave the UKIP grouping and join the Lib Dem group. They all have a powerful presence on the ground and on the web compared to the last elections back in 2014.

    The turnout for European elections has dropped below 50% but with the web and the emergence of anti-austerity philosophies one can see the populist left taking a much larger share. Similarly the Alt-Right are hitting 15% in many national elections. It happens that they are Putin funded anti-Euro / anti EU as well as anti immigrant and the EU / Euro is actually quite popular with much of the EU population. So time will tell how the 2019 elections will go.

    Overall the EU and Eurozone is delivering 2% growth and has helped many regions and countries to grow massively over the last three or four decades.

    We won't be part of that so it's interesting that perhaps the response to Brexit and mass immigtation from Africa and the Middle East may turn out to be a democratic one in the form of an uptick in interest in June 2019. That is where the leader of M5* wanted to go a while back with the desire for the Parliament to take back control! Note that in this article 80% of M5* members wanted to move to the Lib Democratic grouping.

    PS Given that M5* policies include:
    B) Ending austerity;
    B) Public investments;
    B) A public bank;
    B) End precarious jobs in the gig economy.
    B) A universal basic income of €780 per month;
    B) Ending inequality; Peace;
    B) Environment;
    B) Border controls
    one wonders how long before Varoufakis, Podemos, Melenchon and Corbyn are in touch?! B)
  • Options
    Must be an awful lot of Daily Mail readers in Italy.
  • Options
    Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    If there is one thing that the impending sunlit uplands of Brexit has achieved, it is a sudden interest in politics outside the UK.

    However, there is a tendency to view everything through Brexit.

    Euroscepticism is not the same in each country, so it does not follow, for example, that any of the potential governments that might be formed in Italy (and there is every chance of no government and another election) would seek to follow, or support the path being followed by the UK. Indeed, if the next Italian Government seeks to repatriate powers from, or otherwise limit the powers of, the EU, it could actually be damaging to the UK's interests.

    As a fan of liberal democracy, it pains me to see parties of the extreme (either left or right) winning a greater share of the vote than before (as does the apparent normalisation of ideas that I had hoped would be consigned to the dustbin of history).

    But I would caution those who view the outcome, as we know it, of the Italian election as meaning anything significant for the UK. This is partly because Italy has a unique electoral history, since the foundation of the Republic, that has a habit of producing unexpected political outcomes. The nature of any coalition that is created, if any, will determine what sort of policies are followed, and for how long. At the moment, there appear only to be uneasy bedfellows.

    From a UK perspective, in my opinion, the likelihood of extended political horse trading in Italy is quite possibly the worst outcome that could have been imagined. In order to get the best possible trading arrangement, following Brexit (and I doubt very much whether the "vision" outlined on Friday will achieve it), the UK actually needs an EU that is less divided and less caught up with any internal wrangling. Unless, of course, the UK Government wants to leave without any deal.

    The way that the EU operates means that the EU27 have already managed sufficient compromise between themselves to deliver a single negotiating position. Whilst the message coming from the EU27 to date has not been music to the ears of those who are "leading" the UK at the minute, it is at least consistent and coherent. It is much, much easier to negotiate with one party over Brexit, and then any future trading arrangement, than to try to influence competing factions.

    Well you know my view on the 'negotiation' ( ie that there is not one, only the EU saying the same thing over and over and 'soft' Brexiteers-aka Remainers, deluding themselves into hearing something else, Corbyn being the latest to put in the ear plugs).
    However, my point about the decline of Social Democracy across Europe is that these parties have tended to be the most federalist. Macron's EU project needs pro EU parties to be in power to proceed.
    If I were in the negotiations I would be insisting that no deal was better than a bad deal in order to encourage the fragmentation of the EU's bargaining unity. No other approach will work.

    Some of the traditional pre-crash parties are in decline but not Labouur, Portuguese left and M5*. What do these three have in common?
    They are populist anti-austerity. M5* tried to leave the MEP group containing UKIP and join a more liberal coalition.

    So we agree that there is a new pressure on the Euro elite. And the French populist left plus Podemos are also on a healthy 20%.

    And we agree that there is no negotiation - May is talking nonsense. We either take a Canada deal or we ask for a Norway deal. All the rest of her speech is fluff to burn another few months away. The UK either accepts the authority of the ECJ for all the bits affecting business or we are a tad screwed.

    This divergence speak is rubbish - the UK operates under a common code or not. And if we don't then FDI will choose the 500 million consumers over us.
    Fiiish said:

    I mean really saying the EU only exists to promote France and Germany is like saying the UN only exists to combat the Nazi threat.

    So Remainers, any comments on Italy following France and voting for a majority of EU sceptical parties? The tide of history is still moving in only one direction.
    A short term trend isn't a tide, Eurosceptical doesn't mean anti-EU on the continent and people much smarter than you and who actually know what's going on in these countries have already attributed these developments as due to internal issues as opposed to wider malaise at the EU.

    But feel free to continue to spout the same cretinous shit over and over again if it makes you feel better. Just don't do it on this forum.
    I love your idea that eurosceptical does not mean anti-EU. Surely exploring that idea needs a thread of its own.

    But on a serious point, the decline of the pro EU left/centre parties is not short term, as anybody who is much smarter than me and knows what is going on will tell you.Ask Prague for example.
  • Options

    Must be an awful lot of Daily Mail readers in Italy.

    Probably not the ones who voted for an anti-establishment, anti-austerity party though.
  • Options
    Southbank said:

    Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    If there is one thing that the impending sunlit uplands of Brexit has achieved, it is a sudden interest in politics outside the UK.

    However, there is a tendency to view everything through Brexit.

    Euroscepticism is not the same in each country, so it does not follow, for example, that any of the potential governments that might be formed in Italy (and there is every chance of no government and another election) would seek to follow, or support the path being followed by the UK. Indeed, if the next Italian Government seeks to repatriate powers from, or otherwise limit the powers of, the EU, it could actually be damaging to the UK's interests.

    As a fan of liberal democracy, it pains me to see parties of the extreme (either left or right) winning a greater share of the vote than before (as does the apparent normalisation of ideas that I had hoped would be consigned to the dustbin of history).

    But I would caution those who view the outcome, as we know it, of the Italian election as meaning anything significant for the UK. This is partly because Italy has a unique electoral history, since the foundation of the Republic, that has a habit of producing unexpected political outcomes. The nature of any coalition that is created, if any, will determine what sort of policies are followed, and for how long. At the moment, there appear only to be uneasy bedfellows.

    From a UK perspective, in my opinion, the likelihood of extended political horse trading in Italy is quite possibly the worst outcome that could have been imagined. In order to get the best possible trading arrangement, following Brexit (and I doubt very much whether the "vision" outlined on Friday will achieve it), the UK actually needs an EU that is less divided and less caught up with any internal wrangling. Unless, of course, the UK Government wants to leave without any deal.

    The way that the EU operates means that the EU27 have already managed sufficient compromise between themselves to deliver a single negotiating position. Whilst the message coming from the EU27 to date has not been music to the ears of those who are "leading" the UK at the minute, it is at least consistent and coherent. It is much, much easier to negotiate with one party over Brexit, and then any future trading arrangement, than to try to influence competing factions.

    Well you know my view on the 'negotiation' ( ie that there is not one, only the EU saying the same thing over and over and 'soft' Brexiteers-aka Remainers, deluding themselves into hearing something else, Corbyn being the latest to put in the ear plugs).
    However, my point about the decline of Social Democracy across Europe is that these parties have tended to be the most federalist. Macron's EU project needs pro EU parties to be in power to proceed.
    If I were in the negotiations I would be insisting that no deal was better than a bad deal in order to encourage the fragmentation of the EU's bargaining unity. No other approach will work.

    Some of the traditional pre-crash parties are in decline but not Labouur, Portuguese left and M5*. What do these three have in common?
    They are populist anti-austerity. M5* tried to leave the MEP group containing UKIP and join a more liberal coalition.

    So we agree that there is a new pressure on the Euro elite. And the French populist left plus Podemos are also on a healthy 20%.

    And we agree that there is no negotiation - May is talking nonsense. We either take a Canada deal or we ask for a Norway deal. All the rest of her speech is fluff to burn another few months away. The UK either accepts the authority of the ECJ for all the bits affecting business or we are a tad screwed.

    This divergence speak is rubbish - the UK operates under a common code or not. And if we don't then FDI will choose the 500 million consumers over us.
    Fiiish said:

    I mean really saying the EU only exists to promote France and Germany is like saying the UN only exists to combat the Nazi threat.

    So Remainers, any comments on Italy following France and voting for a majority of EU sceptical parties? The tide of history is still moving in only one direction.
    A short term trend isn't a tide, Eurosceptical doesn't mean anti-EU on the continent and people much smarter than you and who actually know what's going on in these countries have already attributed these developments as due to internal issues as opposed to wider malaise at the EU.

    But feel free to continue to spout the same cretinous shit over and over again if it makes you feel better. Just don't do it on this forum.
    I love your idea that eurosceptical does not mean anti-EU. Surely exploring that idea needs a thread of its own.

    But on a serious point, the decline of the pro EU left/centre parties is not short term, as anybody who is much smarter than me and knows what is going on will tell you.Ask Prague for example.
    Did they actually run on a platform of leaving the EU though. Answer me that.
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    edited March 2018
    Apologies if you cannot read Italian but this article from February 2018 directly quotes Five Star as promoting European Union membership.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.it/2018/02/06/luigi-di-maio-rottama-la-politica-estera-a-5-stelle_a_23354144/
  • Options
    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    If there is one thing that the impending sunlit uplands of Brexit has achieved, it is a sudden interest in politics outside the UK.

    However, there is a tendency to view everything through Brexit.

    Euroscepticism is not the same in each country, so it does not follow, for example, that any of the potential governments that might be formed in Italy (and there is every chance of no government and another election) would seek to follow, or support the path being followed by the UK. Indeed, if the next Italian Government seeks to repatriate powers from, or otherwise limit the powers of, the EU, it could actually be damaging to the UK's interests.

    As a fan of liberal democracy, it pains me to see parties of the extreme (either left or right) winning a greater share of the vote than before (as does the apparent normalisation of ideas that I had hoped would be consigned to the dustbin of history).

    But I would caution those who view the outcome, as we know it, of the Italian election as meaning anything significant for the UK. This is partly because Italy has a unique electoral history, since the foundation of the Republic, that has a habit of producing unexpected political outcomes. The nature of any coalition that is created, if any, will determine what sort of policies are followed, and for how long. At the moment, there appear only to be uneasy bedfellows.

    From a UK perspective, in my opinion, the likelihood of extended political horse trading in Italy is quite possibly the worst outcome that could have been imagined. In order to get the best possible trading arrangement, following Brexit (and I doubt very much whether the "vision" outlined on Friday will achieve it), the UK actually needs an EU that is less divided and less caught up with any internal wrangling. Unless, of course, the UK Government wants to leave without any deal.

    The way that the EU operates means that the EU27 have already managed sufficient compromise between themselves to deliver a single negotiating position. Whilst the message coming from the EU27 to date has not been music to the ears of those who are "leading" the UK at the minute, it is at least consistent and coherent. It is much, much easier to negotiate with one party over Brexit, and then any future trading arrangement, than to try to influence competing factions.

    Well you know my view on the 'negotiation' ( ie that there is not one, only the EU saying the same thing over and over and 'soft' Brexiteers-aka Remainers, deluding themselves into hearing something else, Corbyn being the latest to put in the ear plugs).
    However, my point about the decline of Social Democracy across Europe is that these parties have tended to be the most federalist. Macron's EU project needs pro EU parties to be in power to proceed.
    If I were in the negotiations I would be insisting that no deal was better than a bad deal in order to encourage the fragmentation of the EU's bargaining unity. No other approach will work.

    Some of the traditional pre-crash parties are in decline but not Labouur, Portuguese left and M5*. What do these three have in common?
    They are populist anti-austerity. M5* tried to leave the MEP group containing UKIP and join a more liberal coalition.

    So we agree that there is a new pressure on the Euro elite. And the French populist left plus Podemos are also on a healthy 20%.

    And we agree that there is no negotiation - May is talking nonsense. We either take a Canada deal or we ask for a Norway deal. All the rest of her speech is fluff to burn another few months away. The UK either accepts the authority of the ECJ for all the bits affecting business or we are a tad screwed.

    This divergence speak is rubbish - the UK operates under a common code or not. And if we don't then FDI will choose the 500 million consumers over us.
    Fiiish said:

    I mean really saying the EU only exists to promote France and Germany is like saying the UN only exists to combat the Nazi threat.

    So Remainers, any comments on Italy following France and voting for a majority of EU sceptical parties? The tide of history is still moving in only one direction.
    Tides, in history, just as with water, have a tendency to move in a certain direction and then retreat.

    There's almost a Boyle's Law in operation in politics.

    And, in contrast to what has been alleged by many in favour of Brexit, the current success of Eurosceptic parties often riding a populist wave, and an associated resurgence of fascism, suggests that the EU is not the all powerful, monolithic, anti-democratic entity that has been claimed.

    Do I like the way the political winds are blowing now? No. But that is the price we pay to live in democratic (albeit flawed, because there is no such thing as perfect democracies) societies.
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    Must be an awful lot of Daily Mail readers in Italy.

    Probably not the ones who voted for an anti-establishment, anti-austerity party though.
    I'm sure Berlasconi will do his utmost to help
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    Southbank said:

    Nothing then on either? Bit of an admittance of failure.

    Starting to sound a bit desperate @Southbank. You never know Theresa might yet balls it up and you could still get the chance to 'cut off your nose to spite your face'. :wink:
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    edited March 2018
    I think the problem of seeing everything through the prism of Brexit is in evidence here. There is clearly a great deal of dissatisfaction in Italy towards 'the system' and those in charge, just as there is in Spain, but that does not necessarily translate as being against the EU. I've seen this quite a lot, including some people who believed that the Catalan independence movement was also another facet of anti-EU sentiment.

    It's important to note how generally positive feelings about the EU in European countries can coexist with feelings of general dissatisfaction in the country, and that the EU itself is rarely the specific target of angst. This is an example of an election result which will certainly cause another need for reflection and modernisation in the EU but will hardly signal its imminent demise.
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    NornIrishAddick
    said earlier

    'Historically, France and Germany have sought (almost always) to work together'

    Don't think Otto Von Bismarck, Kaiser Wilhelm and Hitler
    could have been in included in that ludicrous comment!
  • Options
    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    If there is one thing that the impending sunlit uplands of Brexit has achieved, it is a sudden interest in politics outside the UK.

    However, there is a tendency to view everything through Brexit.

    Euroscepticism is not the same in each country, so it does not follow, for example, that any of the potential governments that might be formed in Italy (and there is every chance of no government and another election) would seek to follow, or support the path being followed by the UK. Indeed, if the next Italian Government seeks to repatriate powers from, or otherwise limit the powers of, the EU, it could actually be damaging to the UK's interests.

    As a fan of liberal democracy, it pains me to see parties of the extreme (either left or right) winning a greater share of the vote than before (as does the apparent normalisation of ideas that I had hoped would be consigned to the dustbin of history).

    But I would caution those who view the outcome, as we know it, of the Italian election as meaning anything significant for the UK. This is partly because Italy has a unique electoral history, since the foundation of the Republic, that has a habit of producing unexpected political outcomes. The nature of any coalition that is created, if any, will determine what sort of policies are followed, and for how long. At the moment, there appear only to be uneasy bedfellows.

    From a UK perspective, in my opinion, the likelihood of extended political horse trading in Italy is quite possibly the worst outcome that could have been imagined. In order to get the best possible trading arrangement, following Brexit (and I doubt very much whether the "vision" outlined on Friday will achieve it), the UK actually needs an EU that is less divided and less caught up with any internal wrangling. Unless, of course, the UK Government wants to leave without any deal.

    The way that the EU operates means that the EU27 have already managed sufficient compromise between themselves to deliver a single negotiating position. Whilst the message coming from the EU27 to date has not been music to the ears of those who are "leading" the UK at the minute, it is at least consistent and coherent. It is much, much easier to negotiate with one party over Brexit, and then any future trading arrangement, than to try to influence competing factions.

    Well you know my view on the 'negotiation' ( ie that there is not one, only the EU saying the same thing over and over and 'soft' Brexiteers-aka Remainers, deluding themselves into hearing something else, Corbyn being the latest to put in the ear plugs).
    However, my point about the decline of Social Democracy across Europe is that these parties have tended to be the most federalist. Macron's EU project needs pro EU parties to be in power to proceed.
    If I were in the negotiations I would be insisting that no deal was better than a bad deal in order to encourage the fragmentation of the EU's bargaining unity. No other approach will work.

    Some of the traditional pre-crash parties are in decline but not Labouur, Portuguese left and M5*. What do these three have in common?
    They are populist anti-austerity. M5* tried to leave the MEP group containing UKIP and join a more liberal coalition.

    So we agree that there is a new pressure on the Euro elite. And the French populist left plus Podemos are also on a healthy 20%.

    And we agree that there is no negotiation - May is talking nonsense. We either take a Canada deal or we ask for a Norway deal. All the rest of her speech is fluff to burn another few months away. The UK either accepts the authority of the ECJ for all the bits affecting business or we are a tad screwed.

    This divergence speak is rubbish - the UK operates under a common code or not. And if we don't then FDI will choose the 500 million consumers over us.
    Fiiish said:

    I mean really saying the EU only exists to promote France and Germany is like saying the UN only exists to combat the Nazi threat.

    So Remainers, any comments on Italy following France and voting for a majority of EU sceptical parties? The tide of history is still moving in only one direction.
    That comment is a tad premature. Assuming the five star movement form part of a coalition, we will then see the platform upon which they stand.

    It's a bit like the Dail Express and Telegraph coverage of Catalonia where there has been a strange alliance of anarchist and anti-Madrid forces trying to take control. And yet this month Puigemont has given up and is staying in exile in Belgium. @CharltonMadrid might share an update on both Catalonia and how the polls are playing.

    Have to say that your views @Southbank are most welcome for we both see the same symptoms. Perhaps we differ on where we think things might go by 2020?
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    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    If there is one thing that the impending sunlit uplands of Brexit has achieved, it is a sudden interest in politics outside the UK.

    However, there is a tendency to view everything through Brexit.

    Euroscepticism is not the same in each country, so it does not follow, for example, that any of the potential governments that might be formed in Italy (and there is every chance of no government and another election) would seek to follow, or support the path being followed by the UK. Indeed, if the next Italian Government seeks to repatriate powers from, or otherwise limit the powers of, the EU, it could actually be damaging to the UK's interests.

    As a fan of liberal democracy, it pains me to see parties of the extreme (either left or right) winning a greater share of the vote than before (as does the apparent normalisation of ideas that I had hoped would be consigned to the dustbin of history).

    But I would caution those who view the outcome, as we know it, of the Italian election as meaning anything significant for the UK. This is partly because Italy has a unique electoral history, since the foundation of the Republic, that has a habit of producing unexpected political outcomes. The nature of any coalition that is created, if any, will determine what sort of policies are followed, and for how long. At the moment, there appear only to be uneasy bedfellows.

    From a UK perspective, in my opinion, the likelihood of extended political horse trading in Italy is quite possibly the worst outcome that could have been imagined. In order to get the best possible trading arrangement, following Brexit (and I doubt very much whether the "vision" outlined on Friday will achieve it), the UK actually needs an EU that is less divided and less caught up with any internal wrangling. Unless, of course, the UK Government wants to leave without any deal.

    The way that the EU operates means that the EU27 have already managed sufficient compromise between themselves to deliver a single negotiating position. Whilst the message coming from the EU27 to date has not been music to the ears of those who are "leading" the UK at the minute, it is at least consistent and coherent. It is much, much easier to negotiate with one party over Brexit, and then any future trading arrangement, than to try to influence competing factions.

    Well you know my view on the 'negotiation' ( ie that there is not one, only the EU saying the same thing over and over and 'soft' Brexiteers-aka Remainers, deluding themselves into hearing something else, Corbyn being the latest to put in the ear plugs).
    However, my point about the decline of Social Democracy across Europe is that these parties have tended to be the most federalist. Macron's EU project needs pro EU parties to be in power to proceed.
    If I were in the negotiations I would be insisting that no deal was better than a bad deal in order to encourage the fragmentation of the EU's bargaining unity. No other approach will work.
    As long as you are happy with no deal, that would be fine (and it does seem to have been at least part of the UK Government strategy).

    Because, in the end, if the intent is to divide those with whom we seek to agree a trade deal, the likely outcome is that no deal will be agreed at all.

    For me, that is the worst possible outcome, because would be the UK deliberately choosing political and economic damage, for both parties, rather than compromise. Which is probably not the wisest course of action in relation to the UK's nearest and largest export market.

    I have a fairly low opinion of human nature at the best of times, and I believe that such an approach would be seen as hostile by the EU27, and would have significant negative repercussions.

    Surprisingly, perhaps, there is still a significant opinion in the EU27 in favour of seeking a compromise/agreement with the UK (there was an interesting World Service programme - the Brexit Shipping Forecast? - that is worth listening to), but this could all too easily be lost.
    Up and until Germany looks like caving, none of the others matter.
    An opinion that ignores how it is that the EU works.

    Germany, by itself cannot have the sort of power that you assume.

    Simply speaking, where there is a veto, all member states have equal power, and where there is Qualified Majority Voting, no one state has that kind of influence.

    If your assertion was correct, the UK could, and should, have wielded precisely the same influence.
    No matter how many times simple facts are pointed out to Brexiters they just stick their fingers in their ears and continue to peddle their lies and nonsense. Is the concept of a veto too complex for the moronic idiots to understand?
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    Just noticed the kitchenware I have brought home is proudly made in New Zealand.

    Good quality, good price. How exactly is the EU stopping us from trading with the rest of the world again?
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    edited March 2018

    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    If there is one thing that the impending sunlit uplands of Brexit has achieved, it is a sudden interest in politics outside the UK.

    However, there is a tendency to view everything through Brexit.

    Euroscepticism is not the same in each country, so it does not follow, for example, that any of the potential governments that might be formed in Italy (and there is every chance of no government and another election) would seek to follow, or support the path being followed by the UK. Indeed, if the next Italian Government seeks to repatriate powers from, or otherwise limit the powers of, the EU, it could actually be damaging to the UK's interests.

    As a fan of liberal democracy, it pains me to see parties of the extreme (either left or right) winning a greater share of the vote than before (as does the apparent normalisation of ideas that I had hoped would be consigned to the dustbin of history).

    But I would caution those who view the outcome, as we know it, of the Italian election as meaning anything significant for the UK. This is partly because Italy has a unique electoral history, since the foundation of the Republic, that has a habit of producing unexpected political outcomes. The nature of any coalition that is created, if any, will determine what sort of policies are followed, and for how long. At the moment, there appear only to be uneasy bedfellows.

    From a UK perspective, in my opinion, the likelihood of extended political horse trading in Italy is quite possibly the worst outcome that could have been imagined. In order to get the best possible trading arrangement, following Brexit (and I doubt very much whether the "vision" outlined on Friday will achieve it), the UK actually needs an EU that is less divided and less caught up with any internal wrangling. Unless, of course, the UK Government wants to leave without any deal.

    The way that the EU operates means that the EU27 have already managed sufficient compromise between themselves to deliver a single negotiating position. Whilst the message coming from the EU27 to date has not been music to the ears of those who are "leading" the UK at the minute, it is at least consistent and coherent. It is much, much easier to negotiate with one party over Brexit, and then any future trading arrangement, than to try to influence competing factions.

    Well you know my view on the 'negotiation' ( ie that there is not one, only the EU saying the same thing over and over and 'soft' Brexiteers-aka Remainers, deluding themselves into hearing something else, Corbyn being the latest to put in the ear plugs).
    However, my point about the decline of Social Democracy across Europe is that these parties have tended to be the most federalist. Macron's EU project needs pro EU parties to be in power to proceed.
    If I were in the negotiations I would be insisting that no deal was better than a bad deal in order to encourage the fragmentation of the EU's bargaining unity. No other approach will work.

    Some of the traditional pre-crash parties are in decline but not Labouur, Portuguese left and M5*. What do these three have in common?
    They are populist anti-austerity. M5* tried to leave the MEP group containing UKIP and join a more liberal coalition.

    So we agree that there is a new pressure on the Euro elite. And the French populist left plus Podemos are also on a healthy 20%.

    And we agree that there is no negotiation - May is talking nonsense. We either take a Canada deal or we ask for a Norway deal. All the rest of her speech is fluff to burn another few months away. The UK either accepts the authority of the ECJ for all the bits affecting business or we are a tad screwed.

    This divergence speak is rubbish - the UK operates under a common code or not. And if we don't then FDI will choose the 500 million consumers over us.
    Fiiish said:

    I mean really saying the EU only exists to promote France and Germany is like saying the UN only exists to combat the Nazi threat.

    So Remainers, any comments on Italy following France and voting for a majority of EU sceptical parties? The tide of history is still moving in only one direction.
    That comment is a tad premature. Assuming the five star movement form part of a coalition, we will then see the platform upon which they stand.

    It's a bit like the Dail Express and Telegraph coverage of Catalonia where there has been a strange alliance of anarchist and anti-Madrid forces trying to take control. And yet this month Puigemont has given up and is staying in exile in Belgium. @CharltonMadrid might share an update on both Catalonia and how the polls are playing.

    Have to say that your views @Southbank are most welcome for we both see the same symptoms. Perhaps we differ on where we think things might go by 2020?
    Still a real stalemate in Catalonia but the most voted for party were Ciudadanos, who are pro-unity of Spain and very much pro-Europe. The combination of the three different Catalan independence parties have a majority but apart from wanting independence they have nothing in common ideologically so it's hard for them to find common ground.

    Ciudadanos (Citizens) seem to have used their success in Catalonia to generate more popularity throughout the country as the most recent poll I saw had them as the most favoured party nationally. Their leader Albert Rivera is very much in the Macron mould.
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    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    If there is one thing that the impending sunlit uplands of Brexit has achieved, it is a sudden interest in politics outside the UK.

    However, there is a tendency to view everything through Brexit.

    Euroscepticism is not the same in each country, so it does not follow, for example, that any of the potential governments that might be formed in Italy (and there is every chance of no government and another election) would seek to follow, or support the path being followed by the UK. Indeed, if the next Italian Government seeks to repatriate powers from, or otherwise limit the powers of, the EU, it could actually be damaging to the UK's interests.

    As a fan of liberal democracy, it pains me to see parties of the extreme (either left or right) winning a greater share of the vote than before (as does the apparent normalisation of ideas that I had hoped would be consigned to the dustbin of history).

    But I would caution those who view the outcome, as we know it, of the Italian election as meaning anything significant for the UK. This is partly because Italy has a unique electoral history, since the foundation of the Republic, that has a habit of producing unexpected political outcomes. The nature of any coalition that is created, if any, will determine what sort of policies are followed, and for how long. At the moment, there appear only to be uneasy bedfellows.

    From a UK perspective, in my opinion, the likelihood of extended political horse trading in Italy is quite possibly the worst outcome that could have been imagined. In order to get the best possible trading arrangement, following Brexit (and I doubt very much whether the "vision" outlined on Friday will achieve it), the UK actually needs an EU that is less divided and less caught up with any internal wrangling. Unless, of course, the UK Government wants to leave without any deal.

    The way that the EU operates means that the EU27 have already managed sufficient compromise between themselves to deliver a single negotiating position. Whilst the message coming from the EU27 to date has not been music to the ears of those who are "leading" the UK at the minute, it is at least consistent and coherent. It is much, much easier to negotiate with one party over Brexit, and then any future trading arrangement, than to try to influence competing factions.

    Well you know my view on the 'negotiation' ( ie that there is not one, only the EU saying the same thing over and over and 'soft' Brexiteers-aka Remainers, deluding themselves into hearing something else, Corbyn being the latest to put in the ear plugs).
    However, my point about the decline of Social Democracy across Europe is that these parties have tended to be the most federalist. Macron's EU project needs pro EU parties to be in power to proceed.
    If I were in the negotiations I would be insisting that no deal was better than a bad deal in order to encourage the fragmentation of the EU's bargaining unity. No other approach will work.

    Some of the traditional pre-crash parties are in decline but not Labouur, Portuguese left and M5*. What do these three have in common?
    They are populist anti-austerity. M5* tried to leave the MEP group containing UKIP and join a more liberal coalition.

    So we agree that there is a new pressure on the Euro elite. And the French populist left plus Podemos are also on a healthy 20%.

    And we agree that there is no negotiation - May is talking nonsense. We either take a Canada deal or we ask for a Norway deal. All the rest of her speech is fluff to burn another few months away. The UK either accepts the authority of the ECJ for all the bits affecting business or we are a tad screwed.

    This divergence speak is rubbish - the UK operates under a common code or not. And if we don't then FDI will choose the 500 million consumers over us.
    Fiiish said:

    I mean really saying the EU only exists to promote France and Germany is like saying the UN only exists to combat the Nazi threat.

    So Remainers, any comments on Italy following France and voting for a majority of EU sceptical parties? The tide of history is still moving in only one direction.
    That comment is a tad premature. Assuming the five star movement form part of a coalition, we will then see the platform upon which they stand.

    It's a bit like the Dail Express and Telegraph coverage of Catalonia where there has been a strange alliance of anarchist and anti-Madrid forces trying to take control. And yet this month Puigemont has given up and is staying in exile in Belgium. @CharltonMadrid might share an update on both Catalonia and how the polls are playing.

    Have to say that your views @Southbank are most welcome for we both see the same symptoms. Perhaps we differ on where we think things might go by 2020?
    Thanks mate. For me the key thing is the absence of a political party or movement which can uphold all the great things about western society-free speech, democracy and prosperity- while not being tied to the compromised, political pygmies in charge at the moment. The decline of the old parties creates the possibility of change but at present neither the left or right leaning populist movements are good enough.
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    All good socialists should be led by what the capitalist class thinks, in the
    great Labour Party tradition.
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    Southbank said:

    https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/european-parliament-launch-probe-martin-selmayr-promotion
    And by the way, any comments on this example of the' stinking cesspit of corruption'

    No Remainers want to defend this rank corruption at the heart of the oh so 'democratic' EU?
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    This is the problem - the EU is far from perfect. It is just most of us are all going to suffer economically as a result of leaving it!
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    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/european-parliament-launch-probe-martin-selmayr-promotion
    And by the way, any comments on this example of the' stinking cesspit of corruption'

    No Remainers want to defend this rank corruption at the heart of the oh so 'democratic' EU?
    You may not be exactly on the money here, remainers might want to tackle rank corruption and try to put a stop to it.
    I refer the Right Honourable Gentleman to the kind of efforts made by many people to tackle the Olympic Stadium farce.
    And I also reflect on the rank corruption visited upon us by the UK's own specialists in corruption...MP's expenses anybody?
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    We are all either going to go left or right. It is far better to go left than right. Corbyn isn't just needed in this country!



    Well, anyone who researched the bases of the EU.

    Yes, the original underpinnings were about preventing further war (a remarkably successful project) by ensuring that member states were not in competition with each other, and cooperated in things like heavy industry, etc., and then it moved on to wider areas of integration (which has also proved remarkably successful when you consider the changes that membership has wrought on places as diverse as Ireland, Spain, the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Romania).

    But the EU is not about France and Germany alone.

    Historically, France and Germany have sought (almost always) to work together, because the leaders of both countries have been alive to the perils of competition and conflict between the two nations, but it has not been a case of them agreeing between themselves and everyone else has to fall into line.

    Things are shifting in the EU and the Eurozone is five years out of the 2010-12 crisis with some regions and countries doing better than others. Long story short there is a set of MEP elections in June 2019 and these will be jumped on by populist parties. Until now the centre left and centre right have held between 50-70% of the MEPs but these are the parties who have NOT provided solutions for the mass of voters. These are the neoliberal parties who backed austerity as well as failing to come up with immigration solutions for the Mediteranean.

    Whether it is immigration, job opportunities or pay, ordinary people in Europe have been caught by the same forces as those which drove the Brexit vote. The difference is that there are groups like DieM25 set up by Varoufakis and others which has links to populist parties on the left. And we have M5* which apparently tried to leave the UKIP grouping and join the Lib Dem group. They all have a powerful presence on the ground and on the web compared to the last elections back in 2014.

    The turnout for European elections has dropped below 50% but with the web and the emergence of anti-austerity philosophies one can see the populist left taking a much larger share. Similarly the Alt-Right are hitting 15% in many national elections. It happens that they are Putin funded anti-Euro / anti EU as well as anti immigrant and the EU / Euro is actually quite popular with much of the EU population. So time will tell how the 2019 elections will go.

    Overall the EU and Eurozone is delivering 2% growth and has helped many regions and countries to grow massively over the last three or four decades.

    We won't be part of that so it's interesting that perhaps the response to Brexit and mass immigtation from Africa and the Middle East may turn out to be a democratic one in the form of an uptick in interest in June 2019. That is where the leader of M5* wanted to go a while back with the desire for the Parliament to take back control! Note that in this article 80% of M5* members wanted to move to the Lib Democratic grouping.

    PS Given that M5* policies include:
    B) Ending austerity;
    B) Public investments;
    B) A public bank;
    B) End precarious jobs in the gig economy.
    B) A universal basic income of €780 per month;
    B) Ending inequality; Peace;
    B) Environment;
    B) Border controls
    one wonders how long before Varoufakis, Podemos, Melenchon and Corbyn are in touch?! B)
    Pah
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!