I'm not 100% clear on what Labour are proposing. Do they want to stay in the "the" Customs Union or form a new Customs Union on new terms? If it is the later isn't that pretty similar to what the Conservative are propsing but substituting the words "deep and special economic partnership" for "a new Customs Union"?
That's a very good question and cuts to the heart of the matter. Judging by reactions to the announcement it is not the same thing at all. Osborne in the Standard states that this shift "makes Labour more business friendly than the government" and the Institute of Directors have given qualified support. Meanwhile the Mail, Johnson and Fox are hopping mad talking of betrayal!
We will see how this develops but what we are talking about is the prospect of a definite Customs Union hooking into the EU and all FTAs as opposed to an as yet to be negotiated Liam Fox vision of new treaties everywhere. "Deep and special" is of course completely subjective as there is no tangible strategy, policy or agreements behind it.
Nobody can be sure whether is "a Customs Union" or "the Customs Union" as that would be subject to negotiation. What we do know is that this issue should receive an awful lot of coverage in the weeks to come. Whether this is a game changer remains to be seen. May has been brittle in the past when responding to the challenge from Gina Millar but she may be advised to absorb this as a bump in the road?
But he still expects tariff free access to the single market. And acknowledges that it is essential to the future of both the UK and EU economies. Sometimes I think I am living in a parallel universe where I don't get to see and hear everything that everyone else sees and hears. From the outset the EU27 have said there is no tariff free access to the SM without accepting the obligations that everyone else has to. They have not moved one iota on this. Are the EU27 having behind the scenes conversations with UK politicians from both parties where they are suggesting the EU might be flexible on this point?
"Jeremy Corbyn betrays every Brexit voter by actually proposing what the Leave campaign had promised in the first place." - every hard-right/far-right mouthpiece today.
Sadly for O'Toole's analysis, progressive, pro EU Social Democracy is in decline across Europe and with no sign of recovering. An important aspect of why this has happened is that they have aligned themselves so closely to the EU project-which is unpopular in many sections of the historically Social Democrat white working class across Europe. But let us not let reality get in the way of wishful thinking.
The social democratic construct has always been an alliance between middle classes and white working class. There might be theoretical differences between democratic socialist and social democrat but the pragmatic articulation via a manifesto and actual deeds tends to resolve.
The Alt-right have snaffled up to 15% in the polls across Europe and that has been taken directly from progressive democrats - and the reasons are well understood. Globalisation, stagnation of ordinary wages, and neoliberal approach to deregulation and privatisation. The white working class have had no benefits from the boost in GDP since no attention has gone on productivity. Outsourcing is always quicker and cheaper.
Throughout this thread you and I have recognised the source of the anger and energy supporting a leave vote. The last generation of social democrats such as Clegg and Blair are part of the cause so they really should take a back seat.
And as the centre has been hollowed out in UK politics (as it has in N.Ireland) we are dealing in high energy, high risk scenarios where the winner takes all. So yes the PD vote in Italy and the SPD in Germany is down but there is a populist left in both Spain and France.
More importantly western European centre left parties are in decline but Labour in the UK is polling above 40% for nine months now. And if the Tories screw up Brexit, Labour will win the next election. Given all the angles, how can the Tories not screw it up?!
One amazing thing about the UK is that the Tories, split top to bottom , are ahead of Labour in a lot of polls despite their incompetence. It seems highly unlikely that Corbyn can carry a majority in a straight fight with the Tories, given his own party is as split as the Tories. Their should be a realignment, probably along pro or anti-EU lines-but our system legislates against this kind of thing.
Just for once I agree with you.
From what I have heard of Corbyn's big statement today it sounds absolutely pathetic. Cake and eat it shit. Repeating Johnson's discredited £350m claim. Showing he doesn't understand what a customs union actually is. How are people like me expected to gladly vote for him? Chuka Umunna, no problem, bring him on.
Best wait and see what he actually says. From the briefings it all sounds pretty pragmatic to me.
Mind you giving up cheap footwear, dodgy US chicken and milk or eating cake. Bit of a dilemma
Listening to Barry Gardiner this morning it sounds like the soft Brexit fantasy has gripped the Labour leadership.
So still brexit then
Only if you think people voted to stay under the aegis of the ECJ and have continued freedom of movement-opposition to which are the only two things that probably united the 52%.
But therein lies the problem - you clearly know why you voted to leave and have also made it clear that hard Brexit is what you want. But nobody knows why others voted to Leave the European Union (the question). Clearly (not probably) if we are no longer members of the European Union following Brexit then the will of the people will have been satisfied as per the wording of the referendum that you so doggedly claim was democracy at work.
Yes Remainers and Leavers both lied during the referendum campaign but the whole shebang was flawed from the outset.
Remain in the European Union - clear consequence of the outcome, the status quo. Leave the European Union - consequence? f*ck knows.
The future outcome of the status quo - f*ck knows - the EU controls The future outcome of not the status quo - f*ck knows - the UK controls
You pays your money and you makes your choice.
Remainers don't care what f*ck knows looks like, as long as the EU is in control. Brexiteers don't care what f*ck knows looks like as long as the UK is in control.
I'm not 100% clear on what Labour are proposing. Do they want to stay in the "the" Customs Union or form a new Customs Union on new terms? If it is the later isn't that pretty similar to what the Conservative are propsing but substituting the words "deep and special economic partnership" for "a new Customs Union"?
That's a very good question and cuts to the heart of the matter. Judging by reactions to the announcement it is not the same thing at all. Osborne in the Standard states that this shift "makes Labour more business friendly than the government" and the Institute of Directors have given qualified support. Meanwhile the Mail, Johnson and Fox are hopping mad talking of betrayal!
We will see how this develops but what we are talking about is the prospect of a definite Customs Union hooking into the EU and all FTAs as opposed to an as yet to be negotiated Liam Fox vision of new treaties everywhere. "Deep and special" is of course completely subjective as there is no tangible strategy, policy or agreements behind it.
Nobody can be sure whether is "a Customs Union" or "the Customs Union" as that would be subject to negotiation. What we do know is that this issue should receive an awful lot of coverage in the weeks to come. Whether this is a game changer remains to be seen. May has been brittle in the past when responding to the challenge from Gina Millar but she may be advised to absorb this as a bump in the road?
But didn't Corbyn, in the same speech a couple of hours ago say he wanted a customs union - which in my understanding stops us from doing trade deals with 3rd countries - and he wants to be able to strike trade deals with 3rd countries.
I know remainers, like me, want desperately to cling to some hope that there might be a white knight waiting to ride in and save us from the silliness of a hard Brexit, I'm just not sure Corbyn's speech today really pushes us forwards.
@Red_in_SE8 this doesn't help with the wider debate and encouraging structured conversation. Please refrain from these generalisations in the future mate
Sadly for O'Toole's analysis, progressive, pro EU Social Democracy is in decline across Europe and with no sign of recovering. An important aspect of why this has happened is that they have aligned themselves so closely to the EU project-which is unpopular in many sections of the historically Social Democrat white working class across Europe. But let us not let reality get in the way of wishful thinking.
The social democratic construct has always been an alliance between middle classes and white working class. There might be theoretical differences between democratic socialist and social democrat but the pragmatic articulation via a manifesto and actual deeds tends to resolve.
The Alt-right have snaffled up to 15% in the polls across Europe and that has been taken directly from progressive democrats - and the reasons are well understood. Globalisation, stagnation of ordinary wages, and neoliberal approach to deregulation and privatisation. The white working class have had no benefits from the boost in GDP since no attention has gone on productivity. Outsourcing is always quicker and cheaper.
Throughout this thread you and I have recognised the source of the anger and energy supporting a leave vote. The last generation of social democrats such as Clegg and Blair are part of the cause so they really should take a back seat.
And as the centre has been hollowed out in UK politics (as it has in N.Ireland) we are dealing in high energy, high risk scenarios where the winner takes all. So yes the PD vote in Italy and the SPD in Germany is down but there is a populist left in both Spain and France.
More importantly western European centre left parties are in decline but Labour in the UK is polling above 40% for nine months now. And if the Tories screw up Brexit, Labour will win the next election. Given all the angles, how can the Tories not screw it up?!
One amazing thing about the UK is that the Tories, split top to bottom , are ahead of Labour in a lot of polls despite their incompetence. It seems highly unlikely that Corbyn can carry a majority in a straight fight with the Tories, given his own party is as split as the Tories. Their should be a realignment, probably along pro or anti-EU lines-but our system legislates against this kind of thing.
Just for once I agree with you.
From what I have heard of Corbyn's big statement today it sounds absolutely pathetic. Cake and eat it shit. Repeating Johnson's discredited £350m claim. Showing he doesn't understand what a customs union actually is. How are people like me expected to gladly vote for him? Chuka Umunna, no problem, bring him on.
Best wait and see what he actually says. From the briefings it all sounds pretty pragmatic to me.
Mind you giving up cheap footwear, dodgy US chicken and milk or eating cake. Bit of a dilemma
Listening to Barry Gardiner this morning it sounds like the soft Brexit fantasy has gripped the Labour leadership.
So still brexit then
Only if you think people voted to stay under the aegis of the ECJ and have continued freedom of movement-opposition to which are the only two things that probably united the 52%.
But therein lies the problem - you clearly know why you voted to leave and have also made it clear that hard Brexit is what you want. But nobody knows why others voted to Leave the European Union (the question). Clearly (not probably) if we are no longer members of the European Union following Brexit then the will of the people will have been satisfied as per the wording of the referendum that you so doggedly claim was democracy at work.
Yes Remainers and Leavers both lied during the referendum campaign but the whole shebang was flawed from the outset.
Remain in the European Union - clear consequence of the outcome, the status quo. Leave the European Union - consequence? f*ck knows.
The future outcome of the status quo - f*ck knows - the EU controls The future outcome of not the status quo - f*ck knows - the UK controls
You pays your money and you makes your choice.
Remainers don't care what f*ck knows looks like, as long as the EU is in control. Brexiteers don't care what f*ck knows looks like as long as the UK is in control.
@Red_in_SE8 this doesn't help with the wider debate and encouraging structured conversation. Please refrain from these generalisations in the future mate
The memes that Brexit voters are idiots and morons and Remain voters are Metropolitan elites has been prevalent across social media since the Referendum. Dippenhall made a generalisation about Remainers and I responded. It is what happens on social media. Meanwhile we continue to mostly have excellent debate on this thread about the single biggest issue facing the UK since the war. To try and sanitise this site from the memes affecting the wider social media in this country just to be seen to be looking out for the sensitivities of a few of the Brexit snowflakes on here is, frankly, ridiculous.
@Red_in_SE8 this doesn't help with the wider debate and encouraging structured conversation. Please refrain from these generalisations in the future mate
The memes that Brexit voters are idiots and morons and Remain voters are Metropolitan elites has been prevalent across social media since the Referendum. Dippenhall made a generalisation about Remainers and I responded. It is what happens on social media. Meanwhile we continue to mostly have excellent debate on this thread about the single biggest issue facing the UK since the war. To try and sanitise this site from the memes affecting the wider social media in this country just to be seen to looking out for the sensitivities of a few of the Brexit snowflakes on here is, frankly, ridiculous.
It's ridiculous to stick to the rules of the forum? You realise people put a lot of effort / time / money into this forum so we can all enjoy it, why is it so hard to follow the rules they set out?
@Red_in_SE8 this doesn't help with the wider debate and encouraging structured conversation. Please refrain from these generalisations in the future mate
The memes that Brexit voters are idiots and morons and Remain voters are Metropolitan elites has been prevalent across social media since the Referendum. Dippenhall made a generalisation about Remainers and I responded. It is what happens on social media. Meanwhile we continue to mostly have excellent debate on this thread about the single biggest issue facing the UK since the war. To try and sanitise this site from the memes affecting the wider social media in this country just to be seen to looking out for the sensitivities of a few of the Brexit snowflakes on here is, frankly, ridiculous.
It's ridiculous to stick to the rules of the forum? You realise people put a lot of effort / time / money into this forum so we can all enjoy it, why is it so hard to follow the rules they set out?
I do follow the rules.
Do you? The abuse flag is there for a reason. When you misuse it you are wasting people's time because an administrator has to spend time looking into it.
@Red_in_SE8 this doesn't help with the wider debate and encouraging structured conversation. Please refrain from these generalisations in the future mate
The memes that Brexit voters are idiots and morons and Remain voters are Metropolitan elites has been prevalent across social media since the Referendum. Dippenhall made a generalisation about Remainers and I responded. It is what happens on social media. Meanwhile we continue to mostly have excellent debate on this thread about the single biggest issue facing the UK since the war. To try and sanitise this site from the memes affecting the wider social media in this country just to be seen to looking out for the sensitivities of a few of the Brexit snowflakes on here is, frankly, ridiculous.
It's ridiculous to stick to the rules of the forum? You realise people put a lot of effort / time / money into this forum so we can all enjoy it, why is it so hard to follow the rules they set out?
I do follow the rules.
Do you? The abuse flag is there for a reason. When you misuse it you are wasting people's time because an administrator has to spend time looking into it.
You mean like the person who asked you to refrain from posting rubbish like that? Seems it was looked into and cabbles agrees it was a stupid post, you then replied to him calling it a ridiculous request.
@Red_in_SE8 this doesn't help with the wider debate and encouraging structured conversation. Please refrain from these generalisations in the future mate
The memes that Brexit voters are idiots and morons and Remain voters are Metropolitan elites has been prevalent across social media since the Referendum. Dippenhall made a generalisation about Remainers and I responded. It is what happens on social media. Meanwhile we continue to mostly have excellent debate on this thread about the single biggest issue facing the UK since the war. To try and sanitise this site from the memes affecting the wider social media in this country just to be seen to looking out for the sensitivities of a few of the Brexit snowflakes on here is, frankly, ridiculous.
It's ridiculous to stick to the rules of the forum? You realise people put a lot of effort / time / money into this forum so we can all enjoy it, why is it so hard to follow the rules they set out?
I do follow the rules.
Do you? The abuse flag is there for a reason. When you misuse it you are wasting people's time because an administrator has to spend time looking into it.
You mean like the person who asked you to refrain from posting rubbish like that? Seems it was looked into and cabbles agrees it was a stupid post, you then replied to him calling it a ridiculous request.
If you had not flagged it he would not have wasted his time looking into it. However, he did waste his time looking into it and decided to suggest I not use the terms on here rather than admonish you for misuse of the Abuse Flag and wasting his time. I disagree with this view and posted why I disagree. Seems perfectly reasonable to me.
Sadly for O'Toole's analysis, progressive, pro EU Social Democracy is in decline across Europe and with no sign of recovering. An important aspect of why this has happened is that they have aligned themselves so closely to the EU project-which is unpopular in many sections of the historically Social Democrat white working class across Europe. But let us not let reality get in the way of wishful thinking.
The social democratic construct has always been an alliance between middle classes and white working class. There might be theoretical differences between democratic socialist and social democrat but the pragmatic articulation via a manifesto and actual deeds tends to resolve.
The Alt-right have snaffled up to 15% in the polls across Europe and that has been taken directly from progressive democrats - and the reasons are well understood. Globalisation, stagnation of ordinary wages, and neoliberal approach to deregulation and privatisation. The white working class have had no benefits from the boost in GDP since no attention has gone on productivity. Outsourcing is always quicker and cheaper.
Throughout this thread you and I have recognised the source of the anger and energy supporting a leave vote. The last generation of social democrats such as Clegg and Blair are part of the cause so they really should take a back seat.
And as the centre has been hollowed out in UK politics (as it has in N.Ireland) we are dealing in high energy, high risk scenarios where the winner takes all. So yes the PD vote in Italy and the SPD in Germany is down but there is a populist left in both Spain and France.
More importantly western European centre left parties are in decline but Labour in the UK is polling above 40% for nine months now. And if the Tories screw up Brexit, Labour will win the next election. Given all the angles, how can the Tories not screw it up?!
One amazing thing about the UK is that the Tories, split top to bottom , are ahead of Labour in a lot of polls despite their incompetence. It seems highly unlikely that Corbyn can carry a majority in a straight fight with the Tories, given his own party is as split as the Tories. Their should be a realignment, probably along pro or anti-EU lines-but our system legislates against this kind of thing.
Just for once I agree with you.
From what I have heard of Corbyn's big statement today it sounds absolutely pathetic. Cake and eat it shit. Repeating Johnson's discredited £350m claim. Showing he doesn't understand what a customs union actually is. How are people like me expected to gladly vote for him? Chuka Umunna, no problem, bring him on.
Best wait and see what he actually says. From the briefings it all sounds pretty pragmatic to me.
Mind you giving up cheap footwear, dodgy US chicken and milk or eating cake. Bit of a dilemma
Listening to Barry Gardiner this morning it sounds like the soft Brexit fantasy has gripped the Labour leadership.
So still brexit then
Only if you think people voted to stay under the aegis of the ECJ and have continued freedom of movement-opposition to which are the only two things that probably united the 52%.
But therein lies the problem - you clearly know why you voted to leave and have also made it clear that hard Brexit is what you want. But nobody knows why others voted to Leave the European Union (the question). Clearly (not probably) if we are no longer members of the European Union following Brexit then the will of the people will have been satisfied as per the wording of the referendum that you so doggedly claim was democracy at work.
Yes Remainers and Leavers both lied during the referendum campaign but the whole shebang was flawed from the outset.
Remain in the European Union - clear consequence of the outcome, the status quo. Leave the European Union - consequence? f*ck knows.
The future outcome of the status quo - f*ck knows - the EU controls The future outcome of not the status quo - f*ck knows - the UK controls
You pays your money and you makes your choice.
Remainers don't care what f*ck knows looks like, as long as the EU is in control. Brexiteers don't care what f*ck knows looks like as long as the UK is in control.
Why do Remainers make it so complicated.
If we stay in the EU will not control without the UK, because the UK would be part of the EU.
Sadly for O'Toole's analysis, progressive, pro EU Social Democracy is in decline across Europe and with no sign of recovering. An important aspect of why this has happened is that they have aligned themselves so closely to the EU project-which is unpopular in many sections of the historically Social Democrat white working class across Europe. But let us not let reality get in the way of wishful thinking.
The social democratic construct has always been an alliance between middle classes and white working class. There might be theoretical differences between democratic socialist and social democrat but the pragmatic articulation via a manifesto and actual deeds tends to resolve.
The Alt-right have snaffled up to 15% in the polls across Europe and that has been taken directly from progressive democrats - and the reasons are well understood. Globalisation, stagnation of ordinary wages, and neoliberal approach to deregulation and privatisation. The white working class have had no benefits from the boost in GDP since no attention has gone on productivity. Outsourcing is always quicker and cheaper.
Throughout this thread you and I have recognised the source of the anger and energy supporting a leave vote. The last generation of social democrats such as Clegg and Blair are part of the cause so they really should take a back seat.
And as the centre has been hollowed out in UK politics (as it has in N.Ireland) we are dealing in high energy, high risk scenarios where the winner takes all. So yes the PD vote in Italy and the SPD in Germany is down but there is a populist left in both Spain and France.
More importantly western European centre left parties are in decline but Labour in the UK is polling above 40% for nine months now. And if the Tories screw up Brexit, Labour will win the next election. Given all the angles, how can the Tories not screw it up?!
One amazing thing about the UK is that the Tories, split top to bottom , are ahead of Labour in a lot of polls despite their incompetence. It seems highly unlikely that Corbyn can carry a majority in a straight fight with the Tories, given his own party is as split as the Tories. Their should be a realignment, probably along pro or anti-EU lines-but our system legislates against this kind of thing.
Just for once I agree with you.
From what I have heard of Corbyn's big statement today it sounds absolutely pathetic. Cake and eat it shit. Repeating Johnson's discredited £350m claim. Showing he doesn't understand what a customs union actually is. How are people like me expected to gladly vote for him? Chuka Umunna, no problem, bring him on.
Best wait and see what he actually says. From the briefings it all sounds pretty pragmatic to me.
Mind you giving up cheap footwear, dodgy US chicken and milk or eating cake. Bit of a dilemma
Listening to Barry Gardiner this morning it sounds like the soft Brexit fantasy has gripped the Labour leadership.
So still brexit then
Only if you think people voted to stay under the aegis of the ECJ and have continued freedom of movement-opposition to which are the only two things that probably united the 52%.
But therein lies the problem - you clearly know why you voted to leave and have also made it clear that hard Brexit is what you want. But nobody knows why others voted to Leave the European Union (the question). Clearly (not probably) if we are no longer members of the European Union following Brexit then the will of the people will have been satisfied as per the wording of the referendum that you so doggedly claim was democracy at work.
Yes Remainers and Leavers both lied during the referendum campaign but the whole shebang was flawed from the outset.
Remain in the European Union - clear consequence of the outcome, the status quo. Leave the European Union - consequence? f*ck knows.
The future outcome of the status quo - f*ck knows - the EU controls The future outcome of not the status quo - f*ck knows - the UK controls
You pays your money and you makes your choice.
Remainers don't care what f*ck knows looks like, as long as the EU is in control. Brexiteers don't care what f*ck knows looks like as long as the UK is in control.
Why do Remainers make it so complicated.
I would partially agree with that - when we leave it is only ourselves we can blame for the f*ck up. But of course when it all goes tits up we know that Brexiteers will blame the EU for being beastly and not giving us what we want. Do they not realiase we are the United Kingdom - we always get what we want.
I'm not 100% clear on what Labour are proposing. Do they want to stay in the "the" Customs Union or form a new Customs Union on new terms? If it is the later isn't that pretty similar to what the Conservative are propsing but substituting the words "deep and special economic partnership" for "a new Customs Union"?
That's a very good question and cuts to the heart of the matter. Judging by reactions to the announcement it is not the same thing at all. Osborne in the Standard states that this shift "makes Labour more business friendly than the government" and the Institute of Directors have given qualified support. Meanwhile the Mail, Johnson and Fox are hopping mad talking of betrayal!
We will see how this develops but what we are talking about is the prospect of a definite Customs Union hooking into the EU and all FTAs as opposed to an as yet to be negotiated Liam Fox vision of new treaties everywhere. "Deep and special" is of course completely subjective as there is no tangible strategy, policy or agreements behind it.
Nobody can be sure whether is "a Customs Union" or "the Customs Union" as that would be subject to negotiation. What we do know is that this issue should receive an awful lot of coverage in the weeks to come. Whether this is a game changer remains to be seen. May has been brittle in the past when responding to the challenge from Gina Millar but she may be advised to absorb this as a bump in the road?
But didn't Corbyn, in the same speech a couple of hours ago say he wanted a customs union - which in my understanding stops us from doing trade deals with 3rd countries - and he wants to be able to strike trade deals with 3rd countries.
I know remainers, like me, want desperately to cling to some hope that there might be a white knight waiting to ride in and save us from the silliness of a hard Brexit, I'm just not sure Corbyn's speech today really pushes us forwards.
Best wait for the noise to settle down and the analysis to commence - my understanding is that Labour has committed to THE Customs Union and wants to negotiate WITH the EU when it comes to new deals with third countries. So not a rule taker and not a maverick branching out on its own which is what threatens the current non-border in Ireland.
This is part of a shift in the landscape that many anticipated for 2018. I suspect many will agree re. your view on the hard Brexit and that is why I have published links to polls on these issues. This to show how little support the likes of Fox, Rees-Mogg and others actually have in the country.
Perhaps it's not so much a white knight as a brick by brick deconstruction of a hard brexit? This article and poll spells out why Labour has started the shift of policy with the Customs Union for the popular support is much higher across the country. Labour voters are 70% in favour of staying in the single market while Tories are 50:50.
However that discussion is much more nuanced and risks being turned into a debate about a second referendum / defiance of "the will of the people". My take is that this might happen later in the year depending upon how the Customs Union proposals go. The single market is far more complex and also carries higher risk for Labour as it re-opens the immigration / freedom of movement debate. While many on here support a move in that direction, there is a huge risk of handing the agenda back to the likes of Farage.
Sadly for O'Toole's analysis, progressive, pro EU Social Democracy is in decline across Europe and with no sign of recovering. An important aspect of why this has happened is that they have aligned themselves so closely to the EU project-which is unpopular in many sections of the historically Social Democrat white working class across Europe. But let us not let reality get in the way of wishful thinking.
The social democratic construct has always been an alliance between middle classes and white working class. There might be theoretical differences between democratic socialist and social democrat but the pragmatic articulation via a manifesto and actual deeds tends to resolve.
The Alt-right have snaffled up to 15% in the polls across Europe and that has been taken directly from progressive democrats - and the reasons are well understood. Globalisation, stagnation of ordinary wages, and neoliberal approach to deregulation and privatisation. The white working class have had no benefits from the boost in GDP since no attention has gone on productivity. Outsourcing is always quicker and cheaper.
Throughout this thread you and I have recognised the source of the anger and energy supporting a leave vote. The last generation of social democrats such as Clegg and Blair are part of the cause so they really should take a back seat.
And as the centre has been hollowed out in UK politics (as it has in N.Ireland) we are dealing in high energy, high risk scenarios where the winner takes all. So yes the PD vote in Italy and the SPD in Germany is down but there is a populist left in both Spain and France.
More importantly western European centre left parties are in decline but Labour in the UK is polling above 40% for nine months now. And if the Tories screw up Brexit, Labour will win the next election. Given all the angles, how can the Tories not screw it up?!
One amazing thing about the UK is that the Tories, split top to bottom , are ahead of Labour in a lot of polls despite their incompetence. It seems highly unlikely that Corbyn can carry a majority in a straight fight with the Tories, given his own party is as split as the Tories. Their should be a realignment, probably along pro or anti-EU lines-but our system legislates against this kind of thing.
Just for once I agree with you.
From what I have heard of Corbyn's big statement today it sounds absolutely pathetic. Cake and eat it shit. Repeating Johnson's discredited £350m claim. Showing he doesn't understand what a customs union actually is. How are people like me expected to gladly vote for him? Chuka Umunna, no problem, bring him on.
Best wait and see what he actually says. From the briefings it all sounds pretty pragmatic to me.
Mind you giving up cheap footwear, dodgy US chicken and milk or eating cake. Bit of a dilemma
Listening to Barry Gardiner this morning it sounds like the soft Brexit fantasy has gripped the Labour leadership.
So still brexit then
Only if you think people voted to stay under the aegis of the ECJ and have continued freedom of movement-opposition to which are the only two things that probably united the 52%.
But therein lies the problem - you clearly know why you voted to leave and have also made it clear that hard Brexit is what you want. But nobody knows why others voted to Leave the European Union (the question). Clearly (not probably) if we are no longer members of the European Union following Brexit then the will of the people will have been satisfied as per the wording of the referendum that you so doggedly claim was democracy at work.
Yes Remainers and Leavers both lied during the referendum campaign but the whole shebang was flawed from the outset.
Remain in the European Union - clear consequence of the outcome, the status quo. Leave the European Union - consequence? f*ck knows.
The future outcome of the status quo - f*ck knows - the EU controls The future outcome of not the status quo - f*ck knows - the UK controls
You pays your money and you makes your choice.
Remainers don't care what f*ck knows looks like, as long as the EU is in control. Brexiteers don't care what f*ck knows looks like as long as the UK is in control.
Why do Remainers make it so complicated.
As @seth plum pointed out, with the status quo option the UK has control, because it is a member of the EU - and it does share interests with other member states.
And, if anything, because of the way the EU operates and its negotiating power, the UK has more control as part of the grouping than it will have by itself.
Misquoting Mark Carney, outside of the EU, the UK will be reliant on the kindness of strangers, and will be much more a supplicant in any trading negotiations than it has been as an EU member state.
IMHO, the UK is losing control, not gaining it, via Brexit.
Sadly for O'Toole's analysis, progressive, pro EU Social Democracy is in decline across Europe and with no sign of recovering. An important aspect of why this has happened is that they have aligned themselves so closely to the EU project-which is unpopular in many sections of the historically Social Democrat white working class across Europe. But let us not let reality get in the way of wishful thinking.
The social democratic construct has always been an alliance between middle classes and white working class. There might be theoretical differences between democratic socialist and social democrat but the pragmatic articulation via a manifesto and actual deeds tends to resolve.
The Alt-right have snaffled up to 15% in the polls across Europe and that has been taken directly from progressive democrats - and the reasons are well understood. Globalisation, stagnation of ordinary wages, and neoliberal approach to deregulation and privatisation. The white working class have had no benefits from the boost in GDP since no attention has gone on productivity. Outsourcing is always quicker and cheaper.
Throughout this thread you and I have recognised the source of the anger and energy supporting a leave vote. The last generation of social democrats such as Clegg and Blair are part of the cause so they really should take a back seat.
And as the centre has been hollowed out in UK politics (as it has in N.Ireland) we are dealing in high energy, high risk scenarios where the winner takes all. So yes the PD vote in Italy and the SPD in Germany is down but there is a populist left in both Spain and France.
More importantly western European centre left parties are in decline but Labour in the UK is polling above 40% for nine months now. And if the Tories screw up Brexit, Labour will win the next election. Given all the angles, how can the Tories not screw it up?!
One amazing thing about the UK is that the Tories, split top to bottom , are ahead of Labour in a lot of polls despite their incompetence. It seems highly unlikely that Corbyn can carry a majority in a straight fight with the Tories, given his own party is as split as the Tories. Their should be a realignment, probably along pro or anti-EU lines-but our system legislates against this kind of thing.
Just for once I agree with you.
From what I have heard of Corbyn's big statement today it sounds absolutely pathetic. Cake and eat it shit. Repeating Johnson's discredited £350m claim. Showing he doesn't understand what a customs union actually is. How are people like me expected to gladly vote for him? Chuka Umunna, no problem, bring him on.
What have you heard? Media sources (that don't instantly view Corbyn as Satan) are saying that his speech will signal support for a Customs Union, which solves the Irish border question.
What is not to like about that?
To be fair, membership of a formal customs union with the EU would not, necessarily, solve the border conundrum (the nature and scope of the customs union would be key - at least, that's what the Turkish example would indicate).
As with everything else in the negotiations, the devil will be in the detail.
I'd be very interested in the UK government and Labour's reaction to the legal text, enshrining the Phase 1 agreement (at least the parts that relate to UK-EU relations), to be produced by the EU27 this week.
I can imagine a requirement for both parties to sign the text in March, prior to any agreement on a transition period (indeed, I cannot believe, given the attempted backsliding on December's agreements, that the EU27 could begin talks on transition, without the legal text being signed).
The border issue is both customs union and free movement of people, surely? All very well having free movement of goods if people have to be checked at a hard border.
At the moment, the suggestion is that the Common Travel Area will continue as is (I have my doubts, as I think that the consensus could easily break down alongside difficulties in the trade negotiations).
There are no controls on the Irish border for people, so, anyone, from anywhere in the World, able to get off a plane or boat in Ireland can already cross the border without restriction.
There's almost no way of controlling the movement of people across the Irish border, and certainly no cost effective way of doing so.
But he still expects tariff free access to the single market. And acknowledges that it is essential to the future of both the UK and EU economies. Sometimes I think I am living in a parallel universe where I don't get to see and hear everything that everyone else sees and hears. From the outset the EU27 have said there is no tariff free access to the SM without accepting the obligations that everyone else has to. They have not moved one iota on this. Are the EU27 having behind the scenes conversations with UK politicians from both parties where they are suggesting the EU might be flexible on this point?
I think you are dead right. Neither the EU or any of its leaders has said anything other than membership of the CU or SM requires accepting the ECJ and the four freedoms.
I think we have to understand that because the majority of MPs want to remain, both parties are moving slowly towards a position which makes no sense to anyone, to accept the rules while having no say in them, in order to then be able to say that we may as well stay. Then when the EU says no, the parties will say, well we tried our best and we got nothing so we will have to stay.
This has been the game plan for clever Remainers, like Peter Mandelson, since day one after the referendum. The rest, including soft leavers have been drawn along by the promise of 'soft Brexit' which never existed. It was always either leave or stay.
Sadly for O'Toole's analysis, progressive, pro EU Social Democracy is in decline across Europe and with no sign of recovering. An important aspect of why this has happened is that they have aligned themselves so closely to the EU project-which is unpopular in many sections of the historically Social Democrat white working class across Europe. But let us not let reality get in the way of wishful thinking.
The social democratic construct has always been an alliance between middle classes and white working class. There might be theoretical differences between democratic socialist and social democrat but the pragmatic articulation via a manifesto and actual deeds tends to resolve.
The Alt-right have snaffled up to 15% in the polls across Europe and that has been taken directly from progressive democrats - and the reasons are well understood. Globalisation, stagnation of ordinary wages, and neoliberal approach to deregulation and privatisation. The white working class have had no benefits from the boost in GDP since no attention has gone on productivity. Outsourcing is always quicker and cheaper.
Throughout this thread you and I have recognised the source of the anger and energy supporting a leave vote. The last generation of social democrats such as Clegg and Blair are part of the cause so they really should take a back seat.
And as the centre has been hollowed out in UK politics (as it has in N.Ireland) we are dealing in high energy, high risk scenarios where the winner takes all. So yes the PD vote in Italy and the SPD in Germany is down but there is a populist left in both Spain and France.
More importantly western European centre left parties are in decline but Labour in the UK is polling above 40% for nine months now. And if the Tories screw up Brexit, Labour will win the next election. Given all the angles, how can the Tories not screw it up?!
One amazing thing about the UK is that the Tories, split top to bottom , are ahead of Labour in a lot of polls despite their incompetence. It seems highly unlikely that Corbyn can carry a majority in a straight fight with the Tories, given his own party is as split as the Tories. Their should be a realignment, probably along pro or anti-EU lines-but our system legislates against this kind of thing.
Just for once I agree with you.
From what I have heard of Corbyn's big statement today it sounds absolutely pathetic. Cake and eat it shit. Repeating Johnson's discredited £350m claim. Showing he doesn't understand what a customs union actually is. How are people like me expected to gladly vote for him? Chuka Umunna, no problem, bring him on.
What have you heard? Media sources (that don't instantly view Corbyn as Satan) are saying that his speech will signal support for a Customs Union, which solves the Irish border question.
What is not to like about that?
To be fair, membership of a formal customs union with the EU would not, necessarily, solve the border conundrum (the nature and scope of the customs union would be key - at least, that's what the Turkish example would indicate).
As with everything else in the negotiations, the devil will be in the detail.
I'd be very interested in the UK government and Labour's reaction to the legal text, enshrining the Phase 1 agreement (at least the parts that relate to UK-EU relations), to be produced by the EU27 this week.
I can imagine a requirement for both parties to sign the text in March, prior to any agreement on a transition period (indeed, I cannot believe, given the attempted backsliding on December's agreements, that the EU27 could begin talks on transition, without the legal text being signed).
The border issue is both customs union and free movement of people, surely? All very well having free movement of goods if people have to be checked at a hard border.
At the moment, the suggestion is that the Common Travel Area will continue as is (I have my doubts, as I think that the consensus could easily break down alongside difficulties in the trade negotiations).
There are no controls on the Irish border for people, so, anyone, from anywhere in the World, able to get off a plane or boat in Ireland can already cross the border without restriction.
There's almost no way of controlling the movement of people across the Irish border, and certainly no cost effective way of doing so.
So when Turkey joins the EU which the Vote Leave campaign said they were going to imminently, there's nothing to stop 90 million Muslims (including the ones from Syria and Iraq who apparently can enter Turkey then freely roam around Europe) entering the country via the Irish border, which seemed to be a very large concern according to some Brexiters?
Comments
We will see how this develops but what we are talking about is the prospect of a definite Customs Union hooking into the EU and all FTAs as opposed to an as yet to be negotiated Liam Fox vision of new treaties everywhere. "Deep and special" is of course completely subjective as there is no tangible strategy, policy or agreements behind it.
Nobody can be sure whether is "a Customs Union" or "the Customs Union" as that would be subject to negotiation. What we do know is that this issue should receive an awful lot of coverage in the weeks to come. Whether this is a game changer remains to be seen. May has been brittle in the past when responding to the challenge from Gina Millar but she may be advised to absorb this as a bump in the road?
The same DUP who took a £2billion bribe to prop up a failing Tory party at the expense of the best interests of Northern Ireland.
The future outcome of not the status quo - f*ck knows - the UK controls
You pays your money and you makes your choice.
Remainers don't care what f*ck knows looks like, as long as the EU is in control.
Brexiteers don't care what f*ck knows looks like as long as the UK is in control.
Why do Remainers make it so complicated.
Brexiteers don't care what Fuck Knows looks like as long as they get their blue passports.
I know remainers, like me, want desperately to cling to some hope that there might be a white knight waiting to ride in and save us from the silliness of a hard Brexit, I'm just not sure Corbyn's speech today really pushes us forwards.
Do you? The abuse flag is there for a reason. When you misuse it you are wasting people's time because an administrator has to spend time looking into it.
Anyway, I've ended up in a conversation with Chippy of the remainers, I really should know better.
Wibble.
This is part of a shift in the landscape that many anticipated for 2018. I suspect many will agree re. your view on the hard Brexit and that is why I have published links to polls on these issues. This to show how little support the likes of Fox, Rees-Mogg and others actually have in the country.
Perhaps it's not so much a white knight as a brick by brick deconstruction of a hard brexit? This article and poll spells out why Labour has started the shift of policy with the Customs Union for the popular support is much higher across the country. Labour voters are 70% in favour of staying in the single market while Tories are 50:50.
However that discussion is much more nuanced and risks being turned into a debate about a second referendum / defiance of "the will of the people". My take is that this might happen later in the year depending upon how the Customs Union proposals go. The single market is far more complex and also carries higher risk for Labour as it re-opens the immigration / freedom of movement debate. While many on here support a move in that direction, there is a huge risk of handing the agenda back to the likes of Farage.
And, if anything, because of the way the EU operates and its negotiating power, the UK has more control as part of the grouping than it will have by itself.
Misquoting Mark Carney, outside of the EU, the UK will be reliant on the kindness of strangers, and will be much more a supplicant in any trading negotiations than it has been as an EU member state.
IMHO, the UK is losing control, not gaining it, via Brexit.
There are no controls on the Irish border for people, so, anyone, from anywhere in the World, able to get off a plane or boat in Ireland can already cross the border without restriction.
There's almost no way of controlling the movement of people across the Irish border, and certainly no cost effective way of doing so.
I think we have to understand that because the majority of MPs want to remain, both parties are moving slowly towards a position which makes no sense to anyone, to accept the rules while having no say in them, in order to then be able to say that we may as well stay. Then when the EU says no, the parties will say, well we tried our best and we got nothing so we will have to stay.
This has been the game plan for clever Remainers, like Peter Mandelson, since day one after the referendum. The rest, including soft leavers have been drawn along by the promise of 'soft Brexit' which never existed. It was always either leave or stay.