I was sweating on Wolves for a 5 fold. scored in the 81st min..... Barnsley equalised in the 91st min, just as I was about to throw my phone at the cat, Wolves scored again to win it.
I was sweating on Wolves for a 5 fold. scored in the 81st min..... Barnsley equalised in the 91st min, just as I was about to throw my phone at the cat, Wolves scored again to win it.
I was sweating on Wolves for a 5 fold. scored in the 81st min..... Barnsley equalised in the 91st min, just as I was about to throw my phone at the cat, Wolves scored again to win it.
£3- Returns £87 Spurs Manure Chelsea Brentford Cardiff
£2- £81 Draws Burnley / Udders Norwich/ Bristol Plymouth/ Doncaster
I won the middle one then put £25 on Arsenal to win to nil, Malmo and Real Betis return £135. good couple of days and actually put £100 in bank. got a few today will post later if i get a chance
We don't learn do we? There are hundreds of matches to choose from but still insist on backing our own team so, when they don't win, we're hit in the pocket as well as in the heart!
I run my own model for the Prem/Champ/Lg1/Lg2 based on shot data. This has it's advantages and disadvantages as any model does but can throw up some value bets throughout the season.
Still early days in the Premiership but there are some interesting things to note in lower leagues:
Championship: Got this quite competitive at the top end with Leeds and Cardiff currently top. At the other end things looks very bad for both Bolton and Burton. Bolton are now only 1.44 but can still get 1.91 on Burton if you don't mind taking a short price this far out. Ipswich, despite their start, also don't fare well and could be worth an interest at 11s should they slide down the table.
League 1: Got Wigan well clear currently and prices of 9/4 look fair to win the League. Rate us about 8th at the moment. Other end of the table doesn't throw up anything of major interest yet.
League 2: Very competitive at the top but Forest Green look to be struggling to adapt to the step up from non-Leauge. 13/2 with Bet365 to go down looks big (if you can get anything on), with it as short as 11/4 elsewhere. Can get 5s in main high street shops.
Forest Green are now into 13/8 for relegation from League 2. Still rate Wigan best side in League 1
It is an "Expected Goals Model", which although getting more coverage recently is a notion that has been around since the 90s. In brief each shot in a game has a probability of being scored that you can work out from previous data. For example, say a shot from inside the box has say a 60% probability of being scored, whereas a shot from 25 yards has a 10% chance of going in. If a side has one shot from inside the box, and four from 25 yards in a game their "Expected Goals" is 1 ((0.6 x 1) + (0.1 x 4)).
I also then use a lot of shot data to rank sides. The most reliable of these over time I find tends to be "shot ratios". For example if a side has 15 shots in a game, and their opposition has only 5, their "shot ratio" is 75% (15/20). Similarly, their opposition has a shot ratio of 25% for that game. You can then aggregate these numbers throughout the season to assess relative dominance in a game. You can also go further and use "shots on target ratio".
Using this you can see if a team is outperforming their data. The theory then follows that they should revert to average. This doesn't always work, and I lost good money last year taking on Reading as a result. Happily they aren't faring so well this season though, so perhaps they are finding their fortunes reverting to the mean this year.
Comments
Paid for the 50 quid stuck in fruit machine before the game
all HT/FT @ just under 25/1
Brentford v Derby
Nott F v Fulham
Donny v Shrews
Morcambe v Luton
£2 - £186
Seville
Liverpool
Villa
Ipswich
Millwall
Blackpool
Bradford
Wigan
£15- £138
City
Monaco
Napoli
Bristol City
Blackburn
£3 Team to win to nil- £375
Villa
Cardiff
Ipswich
Bradford
Good luck tonight lets be lucky
Sky bet boost
Liverpool ,Manchester city and real Madrid 5/1 £10
Southend
MK ....
Cardiff
Blackburn
Got the MK bit from AFC Wimbledons match program.
As mentioned the other week, the midweek games seem to throw up a number of surprises.
Burton to beat Villa at home @16/5 anyone?
Southend
Wigan
Charlton Walsall BTTS
5/1ish
Spurs
Cardiff
Besiktas
Lincoln
Bristol city
Napoli
Bradford
Fuckers.
Cheers Charlton.
I also then use a lot of shot data to rank sides. The most reliable of these over time I find tends to be "shot ratios". For example if a side has 15 shots in a game, and their opposition has only 5, their "shot ratio" is 75% (15/20). Similarly, their opposition has a shot ratio of 25% for that game. You can then aggregate these numbers throughout the season to assess relative dominance in a game. You can also go further and use "shots on target ratio".
Using this you can see if a team is outperforming their data. The theory then follows that they should revert to average. This doesn't always work, and I lost good money last year taking on Reading as a result. Happily they aren't faring so well this season though, so perhaps they are finding their fortunes reverting to the mean this year.
United/ Celtic/ Chelsea away, £5 stake returned £86
Juventus / Roma/ Barca £20 - Returned £40
2nd withdrawal of £100 this week and will leave remainder in to spin up/ speculate.
Tight gits.
£25 in play, but haven't a clue, maybe no goalscorer