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2017/18 Betting Thread

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  • Starting a new losing run this weekend will be

    Villa
    Boro
    Blackburn
    Wolves
    Wigan
  • Can anyone explain to me why we are priced up as favourites today?
    Fleetwood hammered Bradford 3-0 in the week and we are 2 points from the last 12....
  • bet365will be >0.5 goals with real money, >3.5 goals with the freebie.
  • Bromley (4-1-1 at home) vs Tranmere (1-3-2 away) at 4.6 on bet 365. Is it me, or is this totally mispriced?
  • £5 on Sarr to score at any time, 11/1 on Paddy Power.

    @PolzeathNick where do you get expected goals data from?
  • Scoham said:

    £5 on Sarr to score at any time, 11/1 on Paddy

    A goal or with someone we know?
  • edited September 2017

    Scoham said:

    £5 on Sarr to score at any time, 11/1 on Paddy

    A goal or with someone we know?
    A goal, other odds given were:

    3/1 Katrien
    40/1 Sue
  • edited September 2017

    Starting a new losing run this weekend will be

    Villa
    Boro
    Blackburn
    Wolves
    Wigan

    Boro :-1:
  • edited October 2017

    I always throw a £ at my selections on trying to win the SKY million with Jeff Stelling. Didn't look over the weekend, but logged on this morning and nice surprise.

    West Ham, Watford and Stoke left it late for you. Happy days.
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  • So with a free bet did a 4/1 treble on Ebbsfleet, Billericay and Hartlepool tonight.

    Hartlepool got a 97th minute winner!

    & that's why gambling is so addictive
  • So with a free bet did a 4/1 treble on Ebbsfleet, Billericay and Hartlepool tonight.

    Hartlepool got a 97th minute winner!

    What’s for dinner?
  • Can't say winner winner chicken dinner as trying being a veggie for a few days!
  • Scoham said:

    £5 on Sarr to score at any time, 11/1 on Paddy Power.

    @PolzeathNick where do you get expected goals data from?

    Can get quite accurate data from places like Opta but you do have to pay for it. If you don't want to do any work then check out this website... https://experimental361.com/ has lots of good data analysis on lower leagues, and invariably find we come out with similar results.
  • Gone with Dartford, Truro and Wealdstone today for a modest 2.75/1
  • So far this week, I've had it away on the lottery and premium bonds so my lucks appears to be in.

    3 Draws today - Carlisle, Cambridge and Cheltenham. Come on you c's.
  • 9th-placed Fleetwood to beat 18th-placed Rochdale 8/5
    3rd-placed Bradford to win at 20th-placed Bury 6/5
    2nd-placed Notts County to beat 19th-placed Barnet 21/20

    3 doubles and a treble, treble pays just short of 11/1

    Don't understand the odds they're offering for Fleetwood and Notts Co, surely they should both be odds-on? Anyway, looks like an absolute certainty on paper. I look forward to seeing "Notts County 0 - 2 Barnet" flashing up on Soccer Saturday after about 15 minutes.
  • MrLargo said:

    9th-placed Fleetwood to beat 18th-placed Rochdale 8/5
    3rd-placed Bradford to win at 20th-placed Bury 6/5
    2nd-placed Notts County to beat 19th-placed Barnet 21/20

    3 doubles and a treble, treble pays just short of 11/1

    Don't understand the odds they're offering for Fleetwood and Notts Co, surely they should both be odds-on? Anyway, looks like an absolute certainty on paper. I look forward to seeing "Notts County 0 - 2 Barnet" flashing up on Soccer Saturday after about 15 minutes.

    Fleetwood outperforming their shot data currently rank them 20th. Backed Rochdale myself!
  • edited October 2017
    Notts County, top of the league, were 4/6 vs Bottom to the league Forest Green last week. Thought that was very generous, was expecting much shorter odds.

    Should have known better :-(
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  • To be fair, Plymouth are bottom of the league above them !!
  • MrLargo said:

    9th-placed Fleetwood to beat 18th-placed Rochdale 8/5
    3rd-placed Bradford to win at 20th-placed Bury 6/5
    2nd-placed Notts County to beat 19th-placed Barnet 21/20

    3 doubles and a treble, treble pays just short of 11/1

    Don't understand the odds they're offering for Fleetwood and Notts Co, surely they should both be odds-on? Anyway, looks like an absolute certainty on paper. I look forward to seeing "Notts County 0 - 2 Barnet" flashing up on Soccer Saturday after about 15 minutes.

    Put the house on it Mr largo
  • MrOneLung said:

    To be fair, Plymouth are bottom of the league above them !!

    I meant Forest Green!
  • clb74 said:

    MrLargo said:

    9th-placed Fleetwood to beat 18th-placed Rochdale 8/5
    3rd-placed Bradford to win at 20th-placed Bury 6/5
    2nd-placed Notts County to beat 19th-placed Barnet 21/20

    3 doubles and a treble, treble pays just short of 11/1

    Don't understand the odds they're offering for Fleetwood and Notts Co, surely they should both be odds-on? Anyway, looks like an absolute certainty on paper. I look forward to seeing "Notts County 0 - 2 Barnet" flashing up on Soccer Saturday after about 15 minutes.

    Put the house on it Mr largo
    Done. You got a spare room, mate?
  • MrOneLung said:

    To be fair, Plymouth are bottom of the league above them !!

    I meant Forest Green!
    Read an article last week about Notts losing their unbeaten run and it saying no better game to get back to winning ways than Forest Green ...
  • Charlton
    Leeds
    Notts C

    8.5/1
  • I've gone for a mad one that might come off.

    Burnley to beat West Ham
    Hudds to win away at Swansea
    Millwall to win away at Brentford
    Blades to win at home against Ipswich
    Shrewsbury to win away at Plymouth

    205/1
  • Not that mad, I've got half of those on mine, but less ambitious. Good luck!
  • I run my own model for the Prem/Champ/Lg1/Lg2 based on shot data. This has it's advantages and disadvantages as any model does but can throw up some value bets throughout the season.

    Still early days in the Premiership but there are some interesting things to note in lower leagues:

    Championship: Got this quite competitive at the top end with Leeds and Cardiff currently top. At the other end things looks very bad for both Bolton and Burton. Bolton are now only 1.44 but can still get 1.91 on Burton if you don't mind taking a short price this far out. Ipswich, despite their start, also don't fare well and could be worth an interest at 11s should they slide down the table.

    League 1: Got Wigan well clear currently and prices of 9/4 look fair to win the League. Rate us about 8th at the moment. Other end of the table doesn't throw up anything of major interest yet.

    League 2: Very competitive at the top but Forest Green look to be struggling to adapt to the step up from non-Leauge. 13/2 with Bet365 to go down looks big (if you can get anything on), with it as short as 11/4 elsewhere. Can get 5s in main high street shops.

    And forest green go odds on relegation
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