Did Forest and Fleetwood e/w singles on the handicap table, +18points and +16points respectively. Shrewsbury have probably wrapped up League 1, whilst Cardiff, Bristol City, Ipwich and Preston are all higher than Forest and would have had a comparable or higher points headstart.
Got a fiver on Atletico Madrid for the Spanish title at 25/1 win only. Not expecting it to come in, hence the small stake, but thought the odds were overly generous in the wake of Barcelona flogging Neymar. Thought Barca were going to have a really poor season and Atletico would be Real's main competition. As it's turned out, Barcelona have been superb and Real dropped points in their first 3 home games. Atletico still unbeaten.
I dont really ever see any value personally in season long bets as a single, just feel if you put money on them there isn't great return.
Eg. if you back Wigan/ Charlton every week in a single if you feel they are going to win the league would probably make more money in the long run.
My mates normally do a winners and relegation accy for the season , which could be could value, i dont ever bother though.
From someone who's made a fair whack on ante-post/season-long bets (as well as singles, mind) I am a promoter of them.
You are playing with variance when you back singles, tiny things such as discrepancies from the officials, tiny mistakes etc. can cost you a single bet. It's likely we will beat beat AFC, but it's a better bet for us to Finish top 6 (easily come back when we beat AFC and finish 7th and 'prove me' wrong - but still wouldn't mean I don't think there was more value in the Top 6 bet). Season long this variance will level out (majorly at least), and things will swing for you as much as against you. May not happen in a single match as we all know with the referees and the form of some players etc.
Last pre-season I took Wycombe top 12 and Top 7 of L2 (Top 7 at 7/2 for a sizeable chunk, and Top 12 for a more sizeable chunk). I didn't back them once during the season. They finished 9th but a point and GD away from Top 7, and 4pts clear of the bottom Half. Far from safe but after the ET loss away to Tottenham picking up a heap of injuries, they lost 6 in their next 7 league matches.
2014/15 I went AFC Bournemouth top half of Champ at 4/5, they won the league. They finished top half the season before but I saw nothing but strength added to their squad, and players like Kermorgant (to name one we all know well) were great additions that the bookies obviously didn't rate quite so highly.
This season I wanted Exeter top half and I believe it was Fleetwood for L1, but didn't manage to get any money on either - no one was taking a fair sized online stake and I was in Australia at the time!
Anyway, it's in the eye of the beholder, value. It's also not for everyone, it ties up your money for a long period. Wouldn't say there would be season long value backing us weekly, there would be in a team on a heavier season handicap, e.g. Oxford or Shrews. I can see value in even 8/13 shots that will be tied up season-long, as long as I was certain I felt the value outweighed the odds shown. Others wouldn't place it even in the same situation with the value they see, be it too low odds or too long a tie-in period.
I dont really ever see any value personally in season long bets as a single, just feel if you put money on them there isn't great return.
Eg. if you back Wigan/ Charlton every week in a single if you feel they are going to win the league would probably make more money in the long run.
My mates normally do a winners and relegation accy for the season , which could be could value, i dont ever bother though.
From someone who's made a fair whack on ante-post/season-long bets (as well as singles, mind) I am a promoter of them.
You are playing with variance when you back singles, tiny things such as discrepancies from the officials, tiny mistakes etc. can cost you a single bet. It's likely we will beat beat AFC, but it's a better bet for us to Finish top 6 (easily come back when we beat AFC and finish 7th and 'prove me' wrong - but still wouldn't mean I don't think there was more value in the Top 6 bet). Season long this variance will level out (majorly at least), and things will swing for you as much as against you. May not happen in a single match as we all know with the referees and the form of some players etc.
Last pre-season I took Wycombe top 12 and Top 7 of L2 (Top 7 at 7/2 for a sizeable chunk, and Top 12 for a more sizeable chunk). I didn't back them once during the season. They finished 9th but a point and GD away from Top 7, and 4pts clear of the bottom Half. Far from safe but after the ET loss away to Tottenham picking up a heap of injuries, they lost 6 in their next 7 league matches.
2014/15 I went AFC Bournemouth top half of Champ at 4/5, they won the league. They finished top half the season before but I saw nothing but strength added to their squad, and players like Kermorgant (to name one we all know well) were great additions that the bookies obviously didn't rate quite so highly.
This season I wanted Exeter top half and I believe it was Fleetwood for L1, but didn't manage to get any money on either - no one was taking a fair sized online stake and I was in Australia at the time!
Anyway, it's in the eye of the beholder, value. It's also not for everyone, it ties up your money for a long period. Wouldn't say there would be season long value backing us weekly, there would be in a team on a heavier season handicap, e.g. Oxford or Shrews. I can see value in even 8/13 shots that will be tied up season-long, as long as I was certain I felt the value outweighed the odds shown. Others wouldn't place it even in the same situation with the value they see, be it too low odds or too long a tie-in period.
Thanks for your response Atletico, I generally didnt see the value so its interesting to here the thoughts. I think personally if i was going to do a season long bet which is +EV(Poker term) it would be classed as a punt. Alot of the odds on, i feel dont really warrant it. However it clearly is for those who ie. can invest and get a return or know what they are doing
There is still value in our leauge. Wigan at 8/15 to win the leauge is ridiculous, yes we all saw them take us apart very comprehensively, but would that be the same if we played them tomorrow ? Blackburn at 10/1 Shrewsbury at 10/1 Charlton at 16/1 . £15 on Wigan wins you £8, £5 on the next three in the betting nets you, £50, £50 or £80.
This is Wigan not Manchester City, they are almost certain to have injuries a bad run (which we all have) this will see them drop points. You would be mad to back them at 8/15. Even back the next three in betting at £2.50 ew could bring you a £33.32, £33.32 or £53.32. Plus it's possible you could pick up the win on one selection and the second place with one of the other two, thus collecting on two of the three bets.
So in my view the 8/15 Wigan is far more outrageous than the 1/4 on offer about Man City.
There is still value in our leauge. Wigan at 8/15 to win the leauge is ridiculous, yes we all saw them take us apart very comprehensively, but would that be the same if we played them tomorrow ? Blackburn at 10/1 Shrewsbury at 10/1 Charlton at 16/1 . £15 on Wigan wins you £8, £5 on the next three in the betting nets you, £50, £50 or £80.
This is Wigan not Manchester City, they are almost certain to have injuries a bad run (which we all have) this will see them drop points. You would be mad to back them at 8/15. Even back the next three in betting at £2.50 ew could bring you a £33.32, £33.32 or £53.32. Plus it's possible you could pick up the win on one selection and the second place with one of the other two, thus collecting on two of the three bets.
So in my view the 8/15 Wigan is far more outrageous than the 1/4 on offer about Man City.
It's is low, perhaps only the real way on cashing in on it is a clear lay. Only takes some injuries or late-season nerves and they may slip into 2nd or even 3rd/4th, as you say They're not Manchester City. I think they may win it but at more of a 50/50 shot than 8/15.
There is still value in our leauge. Wigan at 8/15 to win the leauge is ridiculous, yes we all saw them take us apart very comprehensively, but would that be the same if we played them tomorrow ? Blackburn at 10/1 Shrewsbury at 10/1 Charlton at 16/1 . £15 on Wigan wins you £8, £5 on the next three in the betting nets you, £50, £50 or £80.
This is Wigan not Manchester City, they are almost certain to have injuries a bad run (which we all have) this will see them drop points. You would be mad to back them at 8/15. Even back the next three in betting at £2.50 ew could bring you a £33.32, £33.32 or £53.32. Plus it's possible you could pick up the win on one selection and the second place with one of the other two, thus collecting on two of the three bets.
So in my view the 8/15 Wigan is far more outrageous than the 1/4 on offer about Man City.
It's is low, perhaps only the real way on cashing in on it is a clear lay. Only takes some injuries or late-season nerves and they may slip into 2nd or even 3rd/4th, as you say They're not Manchester City. I think they may win it but at more of a 50/50 shot than 8/15.
There is still value in our leauge. Wigan at 8/15 to win the leauge is ridiculous, yes we all saw them take us apart very comprehensively, but would that be the same if we played them tomorrow ? Blackburn at 10/1 Shrewsbury at 10/1 Charlton at 16/1 . £15 on Wigan wins you £8, £5 on the next three in the betting nets you, £50, £50 or £80.
This is Wigan not Manchester City, they are almost certain to have injuries a bad run (which we all have) this will see them drop points. You would be mad to back them at 8/15. Even back the next three in betting at £2.50 ew could bring you a £33.32, £33.32 or £53.32. Plus it's possible you could pick up the win on one selection and the second place with one of the other two, thus collecting on two of the three bets.
So in my view the 8/15 Wigan is far more outrageous than the 1/4 on offer about Man City.
It's is low, perhaps only the real way on cashing in on it is a clear lay. Only takes some injuries or late-season nerves and they may slip into 2nd or even 3rd/4th, as you say They're not Manchester City. I think they may win it but at more of a 50/50 shot than 8/15.
I'll have some of that please evens on wigan
Haha, I'd probably get taken to the cleaners and to the price laid elsewhere!
Welling evens today (at home) after winning their last six on the bounce. Wealdstone also showing good form having not lost a game since early September. They have good home form but have drew their always. Going to have a punt on H/T Draw F/T Welling at 9/2
Luton at home also look big at evens?
As for furthest travellers today, that award has got to go to Hartlepool (away to Torquay).
I like Swindon today (21/10) away to Port Vale Port Vale at home - 4 points from 7 home games (1-1-5) Swindon away - 15 points from 7 away games (5-0-2)
Port Vale have won their last 3, which helps the price, but 2 of those were away. 71% of their points this season have come from away games. Swindon have conceded 18 goals this season but only 5 of those in away games. Port Vale have failed to keep a clean sheet at home all season and haven't once equalised after going behind.
I like Swindon today (21/10) away to Port Vale Port Vale at home - 4 points from 7 home games (1-1-5) Swindon away - 15 points from 7 away games (5-0-2)
Port Vale have won their last 3, which helps the price, but 2 of those were away. 71% of their points this season have come from away games. Swindon have conceded 18 goals this season but only 5 of those in away games. Port Vale have failed to keep a clean sheet at home all season and haven't once equalised after going behind.
Comments
I don't, and would prefer your bet though.
I dont really ever see any value personally in season long bets as a single, just feel if you put money on them there isn't great return.
Eg. if you back Wigan/ Charlton every week in a single if you feel they are going to win the league would probably make more money in the long run.
My mates normally do a winners and relegation accy for the season , which could be could value, i dont ever bother though.
chelsea
boro
blackburn
swindon
the only pre season bet that has some legs is leeds each way ( 4 places ) 25/1
Got a fiver on Atletico Madrid for the Spanish title at 25/1 win only. Not expecting it to come in, hence the small stake, but thought the odds were overly generous in the wake of Barcelona flogging Neymar. Thought Barca were going to have a really poor season and Atletico would be Real's main competition. As it's turned out, Barcelona have been superb and Real dropped points in their first 3 home games. Atletico still unbeaten.
You are playing with variance when you back singles, tiny things such as discrepancies from the officials, tiny mistakes etc. can cost you a single bet. It's likely we will beat beat AFC, but it's a better bet for us to Finish top 6 (easily come back when we beat AFC and finish 7th and 'prove me' wrong - but still wouldn't mean I don't think there was more value in the Top 6 bet). Season long this variance will level out (majorly at least), and things will swing for you as much as against you. May not happen in a single match as we all know with the referees and the form of some players etc.
Last pre-season I took Wycombe top 12 and Top 7 of L2 (Top 7 at 7/2 for a sizeable chunk, and Top 12 for a more sizeable chunk). I didn't back them once during the season. They finished 9th but a point and GD away from Top 7, and 4pts clear of the bottom Half. Far from safe but after the ET loss away to Tottenham picking up a heap of injuries, they lost 6 in their next 7 league matches.
2014/15 I went AFC Bournemouth top half of Champ at 4/5, they won the league. They finished top half the season before but I saw nothing but strength added to their squad, and players like Kermorgant (to name one we all know well) were great additions that the bookies obviously didn't rate quite so highly.
This season I wanted Exeter top half and I believe it was Fleetwood for L1, but didn't manage to get any money on either - no one was taking a fair sized online stake and I was in Australia at the time!
Anyway, it's in the eye of the beholder, value. It's also not for everyone, it ties up your money for a long period. Wouldn't say there would be season long value backing us weekly, there would be in a team on a heavier season handicap, e.g. Oxford or Shrews. I can see value in even 8/13 shots that will be tied up season-long, as long as I was certain I felt the value outweighed the odds shown. Others wouldn't place it even in the same situation with the value they see, be it too low odds or too long a tie-in period.
Once we get this year out the way hardly anyone to play away
This is Wigan not Manchester City, they are almost certain to have injuries a bad run (which we all have) this will see them drop points. You would be mad to back them at 8/15. Even back the next three in betting at £2.50 ew could bring you a £33.32, £33.32 or £53.32. Plus it's possible you could pick up the win on one selection and the second place with one of the other two, thus collecting on two of the three bets.
So in my view the 8/15 Wigan is far more outrageous than the 1/4 on offer about Man City.
Wealdstone also showing good form having not lost a game since early September. They have good home form but have drew their always.
Going to have a punt on H/T Draw F/T Welling at 9/2
Luton at home also look big at evens?
As for furthest travellers today, that award has got to go to Hartlepool (away to Torquay).
Port Vale at home - 4 points from 7 home games (1-1-5)
Swindon away - 15 points from 7 away games (5-0-2)
Port Vale have won their last 3, which helps the price, but 2 of those were away. 71% of their points this season have come from away games.
Swindon have conceded 18 goals this season but only 5 of those in away games.
Port Vale have failed to keep a clean sheet at home all season and haven't once equalised after going behind.
All that points to a 1-0 Port Vale now
Some other value Shrewsbury at over 2/1 at Peterborough ? bookies still not convinced Shrewsbury are for real.
Woking at Evens best home form in leauge against team with some of worst away ?
So Woking, Shrewsbury, Charlton treble
But big bet of day is.
Cardiff, Luton, Macclesfield treble.
Only a fiver for me. Boo.
£1 - £159.81
Leicester
West Brom
Liverpool
QPR
Leeds
£2-£114.87
Millwall, Derby, Villa, Southampton, Blackpool, Blackburn, Cheltenham
£3 - BTTS - Returns £96.80
Bristol/Cardiff
Southampton/Burnley
Bolton/Norwich
Brentford/Leeds
AFC Wimbledon/Lincoln
Carlisle/Oldham
£1 BTTS and win £276.88
Gills, Luton, Forest Green, AFC Wimbledon
Sticking to form same bet Ipswich v Preston.
Derby, Bradford, Colchester, Peterborough 4 fold for £40
Wimbledon, Gillingham £25 double
Oldham Plymouth £25 double & £10 fourfold.
WBA, Barnsly, Villa £10 Treble.
BTTS:
Carlisle Utd v Oldham
Cheltenham v Maidstone Utd
Crewe v Rotherham
Gainsborough v Slough Town
Morecambe v Hartlepool
Ipswich v Preston
Also singles on Over 10.5 Corners in Rangers v Partick, Dundee Utd v St. Mirren & Over 9.5 in Hamilton v Aberdeen. All with Bet365.
Tired of one or two losing my accumulators now. Had a short break away from it and this was my first one since, one team letting me down again...
West Ham Liverpool
Villa Wednesday
Sheff Utd Hull
BTTS 9/2 £15 on it