If Le Pen hits 40% in round two I'd be surprised. I can only see it happening if there's a serious terrorist attack or if large swathes of the electorate abstain.
She is polling today at 40%: parismatch.com/La-presidentielle-en-temps-reel This crowd were very accurate for the first round and release a fresh poll every evening. No movement today and very little since the first round was announced last Sunday.
Fillon (19% first round) jumped stright in to back Macron but the independent socialist Melenchon (also 19%) has been more circumspect.
For sure terrorism might play a part in the campaign? So Macron has launched with a commitment which states: "security is the first freedom, and therefore proposes to recruit 10,000 extra police officers and gendarmes."
Let's see how the polls move between now and Friday week.
Firstly, I did not directly state that Brexit is racist. What I did say was that I do not see Le Pen as being any more racist than Farage, or Le Front National as being any more racist than Brexit. It all depends what one's definition of racist is. One mistake that British people might make is to equate Le Front National with The National Front. They are not the same thing. Looking at Le Front National's manifesto I do not see anything any more racist than the main arguments I heard for Brexit.
If you choose not to read this then please don't assume that you know what Le Front National is proposing.
The question remains thereafter: 'Do you believe the manifesto and do you believe Le Pen?'
My answer to this question is no, in the same manner as I do not belive anything Farage, Johnson et al said during the referendum campaign. Much as Le Front National would be bad for France, so will Brexit be for the people of Britain. I do believe that Le Pen is inherently racist but I do also believe that this is true of Farage (hence my initial comment). This is of course my opinion. What is not opinion are the manifestos.
Lastly, some forecasts. 1. My forecast is that this Presendential race will finish closer than many predict. I have watched Macron speak on TV this evening just as I did Le Pen on Tuesday evening. Despite being a Macron supporter I fear that he will appear less convincing to some of those as yet undecided voters. Le Pen has a more convincing authoritarian manner. She has also learnt to smile and also to laugh politely when under criticism. She is a formidable politician and does deserve some grudging admiration. 2. A long term forecast: Do not underestimate the increasing force of Melenchon. He has gained huge support from the French youth. Whereas Le Front National's hard core support is the older generation, Melenchon's is the youth. The latter will only increase in number over time, and the former decrease. Melenchon may not continue much longer due to his age but this election will leave a legacy that the young electorate will continue.
@jimmymelrose - In that case mate, I understand and apologise. Looked like a few of us jumped the gun after some of the previous Brexit mentions.
For what it's worth, I actually agree with you. I dont think Le Pen is campaigning on an overtly racist front; the friction with her father is a good example of this, and IMO so is the seemed to posture herself to focus on the office and not the party. Some of her proposed policies are actually pretty good, and would result in positive change to be entirely honest.
From what I've read I can't really warm to Macron, even though he does appear to be a more sane and stable choice - and for that reason I'd like to see him gain office.
If people want to vote for her, let them vote for her.
It really irritates me how people who voted for Brexit/Trump/Le Pen/Conservative are denounced as stupid/unintelligent types in the media.
All it does it lead to people turning into silent voters, scared that their left wing colleagues/friends will just negatively label them.
We all have opinions and our opinions are equal according to the democracy we live in.
Agreed... Its quite staggering that after Brexit and Trump people still refuse to get this.
Could quite easily have been the case where people listened to polls prior to both elections, saw that Brexit and Trump were going to lose through them and decided against voting because their vote wasnt need to win.
As it was, the silent majority then ensured victory for both Brexit and Trump.
A minority voted for Trump, 3% more people voted for Brexit. Do not compare the racist, xenophobic, incompetent economic policy of Le Pen to Trump and Tory Brexit policy. Around 20% voted for Le Pen.
I was enraged by the Coast TV Liberal elite in the US. When that smug bugger Bill O'Reilly's pre-election speech linked Trump to virtually Fascists at the door, my contrarian instincts made me want to vote Trump if I could. Same when I meet mediah friends who live in E London and roll their eyes at 'racist' Brexit.
But Le Pen and the National Front are racists. They are the direct line from Vichy, to that foul filth of a man Papon onto her Father and her base support. The main good thing is that as Paul Mason said via Brexit we are not influenced in policy at the EU by the rise of the far right in Europe. France in the interior is often racist, up to the 70's and 80's they still saw politicians/civil servants that represented their racist views openly. 20% for Le Pen has little direct parallel with Trump or Brexit. For god sake Melenchon got 19%: and as an aside makes Le Pen look a fool on TV, but an ex-Communist has no chance.
Le pen and front national may well be racist. But here we are in 2017 and the forecast is that 38% of French people voting on the 7th of may will be voting for a racist party. Even if it's 66% to 33% that's 1 in 3 voting le pen. Most comments I've seen just seem to want to brush le pen and FN aside When surely the question should be in 2017 how the f@ck has it come to a third voting in France has voted le pen
At least in France it's only a third voting for the nationalists whereas in Britain it was over a half. And why shouldn't I compare Le Pen to Brexit? I've listened to Le Pen on French television and although I can't stand her, she is more articulate and reasons with greater logic than either Farage or Boris Johnson. I do not believe her to be any more racist than Farage and over half of Britons voted for his one policy.
There's no comparison with a single issue, Brexit, and voting for a far right party.
Being anti EU (as in the operations and political institutions of the EU) is a perfectly respectable point of view, that can be taken by people of all political persuasions.
In a similar vein, people in Scotland who want independence do so because they are against the operations and political institutions of the UK, not because they are racist.
Agreed wholeheartedly.
I - perhaps immaturely - gave that post a "LOL" (now removed) as we've literally just finished discussing the same thing on this page, and it's tiresome that we've gone back to "racist brexit!" as an argument.
Will there be an overlap - perhaps even a considerable one - between those with far right views and those who oppose the EU? Of course. Are those who voted for Brexit racist? No.
So I feel bad poking at this, but I do want to acknowledge that there were also a lot of racist people, and racist reasons, to vote Brexit. That does not mean everyone who voted Brexit is racist. And LR, I absolutely agree that Leave=Racist is a reductionist argument that isn't really helping anything. But, I also don't want that correlation to be brushed aside or dismissed entirely, because there is a correlation.
That goes without saying, and as I mentioned - there's a considerable overlap between the two groups.
Ultimately it's a bit of a meaningless heuristic alone though, the rudest people I've ever seen have all been on the Northern Line during rush hour - especially around Bank. Does that mean that everyone on the Northern Line travelling on the Bank Branch between 0700 and 0930 is rude though? Nope, a considerable percentage perhaps.
Whilst the correlation lacks any real evidence, it's safe to surmise that people being packed in to an overcrowded platform and then being crammed in to a train carriage isn't conducive* to having a polite and pleasant demeanour - but then again some of them will simply be assholes, and others are just going about their daily lives.
Likewise, it's easy to see the attractiveness of a potential for closed borders by those who simply hate foreigners, but there's other reasons some may want closed borders (even if those reasons don't stand up to scrutiny), whilst others don't care about borders or immigration and simply made their choice based upon a whole range of other factors.
It's as tiresome to hear that Brexit was a vote on racism as it would be to hear that the thousands of people on the Bank Branch of the Northern Line between the hours of 0700 and 0930 on weekdays are completely insufferable assholes though, and there's just as much logic and reasoning behind the two statements.
(Other cracking examples include (a) vegans being incredible bores, (b) cyclists being the kamikazes of the road, and (c)Audi drivers being phallically challenged; all probably have a fair few examples of the stereotype holding strong, whilst being grossly unfair on the rest.)
*Why the heck is "conducive" spelt with a 'c' - it's begging for a cheeky little 's'?!
Condusive. It just looks better, doesn't it?
Completely agree. I haven't been following the Brexit threads super closely, so perhaps this was already treaded ground that didn't need rehashing, and I apologize if that's the case. Your point is a good one.
No need to apologise, at least not to me! It's just felt a bit of a merry-go-round recently, with Brexit ready to jump out and surprise you at every corner!
As for condusive - much better. Ol' Webster got that one wrong IMO..
If people want to vote for her, let them vote for her.
It really irritates me how people who voted for Brexit/Trump/Le Pen/Conservative are denounced as stupid/unintelligent types in the media.
All it does it lead to people turning into silent voters, scared that their left wing colleagues/friends will just negatively label them.
We all have opinions and our opinions are equal according to the democracy we live in.
Agreed... Its quite staggering that after Brexit and Trump people still refuse to get this.
Could quite easily have been the case where people listened to polls prior to both elections, saw that Brexit and Trump were going to lose through them and decided against voting because their vote wasnt need to win.
As it was, the silent majority then ensured victory for both Brexit and Trump.
A minority voted for Trump, 3% more people voted for Brexit. Do not compare the racist, xenophobic, incompetent economic policy of Le Pen to Trump and Tory Brexit policy. Around 20% voted for Le Pen.
I was enraged by the Coast TV Liberal elite in the US. When that smug bugger Bill O'Reilly's pre-election speech linked Trump to virtually Fascists at the door, my contrarian instincts made me want to vote Trump if I could. Same when I meet mediah friends who live in E London and roll their eyes at 'racist' Brexit.
But Le Pen and the National Front are racists. They are the direct line from Vichy, to that foul filth of a man Papon onto her Father and her base support. The main good thing is that as Paul Mason said via Brexit we are not influenced in policy at the EU by the rise of the far right in Europe. France in the interior is often racist, up to the 70's and 80's they still saw politicians/civil servants that represented their racist views openly. 20% for Le Pen has little direct parallel with Trump or Brexit. For god sake Melenchon got 19%: and as an aside makes Le Pen look a fool on TV, but an ex-Communist has no chance.
Whilst we can all concur that the Front Nationale is steeped in Vichy history - just look at the maps of Vichy vs Le Pen support - there is more to it which might contradict some of your assertions.
Firstly Le Pen secured 21% in the first round so a more legitimate comparison might be her second round vote which is currently polling at 39%. That is way below 52% for Brexit, but it's in the same range.
Today the Express has a headline that a poll suggests the Le Pen second round campaign has launched well according to 61%. That is not voter intentions which are 60:40 in favour of Macron.
And yet a friend at lunch states "I see Le Pen is leading the polls"!
Contrary to assertions above, there is another parallel. Not only is Le Pen strong in the South but she and her party have won over the rust belt of the North East. Same as Trump and Brexit. And she is using precisely the same constructs. The left are failing there and the link between philosophers and traditional working class areas is breaking.
Le Pen senior - the original anti semitic holocaust denier - now states tbat his daughter should appeal to the far left with Trump style rhetoric about workers vs management etc.
As others state, this is certainly not to say that all Le Pen supporters are racists. Just that her simplistic blame Islam, blame the EU and Euro agenda is attractive to some. And that there are many on the far left who might vote for her or abstain rather than vote for the neoliberal Macron.
In this country, Labour have been seduced by a trip to the left but it's a one way ticket to electoral oblivion. Principalled for sure but sub 25% ratings - same as Melenchon in France and Podemos in Spain.
Principled oppositionalism but no agenda to govern.
We all know some bright people who voted for Brexit. And we have all had the opportunity to read the remain post mortem based upon analysis, not blame. The failure of Corbyn to engage was deliberate and the reality has finally dawned upon metropolitan Britain. Where there has been 0% growth in living standards for decades in the regions, despite 2.5% GDP growth per annum has caused the regions to return a universal 58:42 result for Brexit.
As one Oxford professor reported, he launched a speech at a rally up north proclaiming the path to growth and somebody in the crowd stated "that's your GDP not ours!"
The same phenomenon has happened in NE France but not the Loire valley and the atlantic coast. And certainly not Paris, Lyon and Bordeaux.
Back to your main point, it is not pure racism which is driving this agenda for it is populist, isolationist and nationalist. The old far right from the 1970s have reinvented themselves and they have also grasped the power of social media far quicker than the centre.
And this is the electoral battle ground for the next five to ten years in western democracies.
While they seek to undermine the establishment, the courts and the established media, the alt-right also call for a direct relationship with the people. And that is far more achievable today with the internet. They call it taking back control and empowering the people while replacing the political establishment.
Around 90 years ago a little Austrian guy with a moustache had the exact same idea! "Ein volk, ein Reich, ein fuhrer" - one people, one nation, one leader.
Let us dispense with journalists, think tanks and economists for "the people" are fed up wirh experts!
Fortunately that tide has been halted in Europe, albeit for the time being. As per previous posts, there is a daily poll on the French election so everybody can witness the development of trends. As above it is 60:40 and so far in the second round has moved just 0.5%.
Ten days to go and all to play for.
If Le Pen hits 40% in round two I'd be surprised. I can only see it happening if there's a serious terrorist attack or if large swathes of the electorate abstain.
But people are being asked to vote for the popularise Marine and not Le Pen.
Good post from SR on the rise of the alt right, though he may be taking the link a little far to the German Corporal.
People speak as if Vichy was a political or social/ecocomic area rather the Southern parts of France that weren't the bits of northern and Western France where the German's imposed control because of its military importance ie was near Britain and contained the naval ports.
There isn't even a significant correlation between the German imposed occupied area and the FN vote in any case
If people want to vote for her, let them vote for her.
It really irritates me how people who voted for Brexit/Trump/Le Pen/Conservative are denounced as stupid/unintelligent types in the media.
All it does it lead to people turning into silent voters, scared that their left wing colleagues/friends will just negatively label them.
We all have opinions and our opinions are equal according to the democracy we live in.
Agreed... Its quite staggering that after Brexit and Trump people still refuse to get this.
Could quite easily have been the case where people listened to polls prior to both elections, saw that Brexit and Trump were going to lose through them and decided against voting because their vote wasnt need to win.
As it was, the silent majority then ensured victory for both Brexit and Trump.
A minority voted for Trump, 3% more people voted for Brexit. Do not compare the racist, xenophobic, incompetent economic policy of Le Pen to Trump and Tory Brexit policy. Around 20% voted for Le Pen.
I was enraged by the Coast TV Liberal elite in the US. When that smug bugger Bill O'Reilly's pre-election speech linked Trump to virtually Fascists at the door, my contrarian instincts made me want to vote Trump if I could. Same when I meet mediah friends who live in E London and roll their eyes at 'racist' Brexit.
But Le Pen and the National Front are racists. They are the direct line from Vichy, to that foul filth of a man Papon onto her Father and her base support. The main good thing is that as Paul Mason said via Brexit we are not influenced in policy at the EU by the rise of the far right in Europe. France in the interior is often racist, up to the 70's and 80's they still saw politicians/civil servants that represented their racist views openly. 20% for Le Pen has little direct parallel with Trump or Brexit. For god sake Melenchon got 19%: and as an aside makes Le Pen look a fool on TV, but an ex-Communist has no chance.
Whilst we can all concur that the Front Nationale is steeped in Vichy history - just look at the maps of Vichy vs Le Pen support - there is more to it which might contradict some of your assertions.
Firstly Le Pen secured 21% in the first round so a more legitimate comparison might be her second round vote which is currently polling at 39%. That is way below 52% for Brexit, but it's in the same range.
Today the Express has a headline that a poll suggests the Le Pen second round campaign has launched well according to 61%. That is not voter intentions which are 60:40 in favour of Macron.
And yet a friend at lunch states "I see Le Pen is leading the polls"!
Contrary to assertions above, there is another parallel. Not only is Le Pen strong in the South but she and her party have won over the rust belt of the North East. Same as Trump and Brexit. And she is using precisely the same constructs. The left are failing there and the link between philosophers and traditional working class areas is breaking.
Le Pen senior - the original anti semitic holocaust denier - now states tbat his daughter should appeal to the far left with Trump style rhetoric about workers vs management etc.
As others state, this is certainly not to say that all Le Pen supporters are racists. Just that her simplistic blame Islam, blame the EU and Euro agenda is attractive to some. And that there are many on the far left who might vote for her or abstain rather than vote for the neoliberal Macron.
In this country, Labour have been seduced by a trip to the left but it's a one way ticket to electoral oblivion. Principalled for sure but sub 25% ratings - same as Melenchon in France and Podemos in Spain.
Principled oppositionalism but no agenda to govern.
We all know some bright people who voted for Brexit. And we have all had the opportunity to read the remain post mortem based upon analysis, not blame. The failure of Corbyn to engage was deliberate and the reality has finally dawned upon metropolitan Britain. Where there has been 0% growth in living standards for decades in the regions, despite 2.5% GDP growth per annum has caused the regions to return a universal 58:42 result for Brexit.
As one Oxford professor reported, he launched a speech at a rally up north proclaiming the path to growth and somebody in the crowd stated "that's your GDP not ours!"
The same phenomenon has happened in NE France but not the Loire valley and the atlantic coast. And certainly not Paris, Lyon and Bordeaux.
Back to your main point, it is not pure racism which is driving this agenda for it is populist, isolationist and nationalist. The old far right from the 1970s have reinvented themselves and they have also grasped the power of social media far quicker than the centre.
And this is the electoral battle ground for the next five to ten years in western democracies.
While they seek to undermine the establishment, the courts and the established media, the alt-right also call for a direct relationship with the people. And that is far more achievable today with the internet. They call it taking back control and empowering the people while replacing the political establishment.
Around 90 years ago a little Austrian guy with a moustache had the exact same idea! "Ein volk, ein Reich, ein fuhrer" - one people, one nation, one leader.
Let us dispense with journalists, think tanks and economists for "the people" are fed up wirh experts!
Fortunately that tide has been halted in Europe, albeit for the time being. As per previous posts, there is a daily poll on the French election so everybody can witness the development of trends. As above it is 60:40 and so far in the second round has moved just 0.5%.
Ten days to go and all to play for.
I'm not quite sure what you're point is. The Le Pens are racist as is the Front National. It's quite possible people support Marine Le Pen and aren't racist. However few in any logical sense if they applied a bit of critical thinking, can accept her political views without accepting they're voting for a racist party/narrative. At no point did I say that it's pure Racism that drives populist support, I was saying the French national front is racist to it's core.
Nationalism, populism, protectionism, and mercantilism are all easy emotional sells where people perceive they're losing out. Sure there is similarities there with Trump. The major difference with Trump is that his message to blue collar white America is an absolute lie, he's underwritten and influenced economically by those who're anti-union and short-termist asset strippers. Whilst Trump really believes in the free market as long as the US is allowed to game it in order to dominate, Le Pen attempts to co-opt anti-capitalist and protectionist policies from the far right and left: Which can be paralleled with the populist co-opting of certain social-economic policies of the National Socialists.
As for the alt-right, they're no different to the Lefties in the Twitteratti in their thin skinned hyperbole. They're not alt-right, they're the same as before but now they have a platform and unlike the left their interests suit some billionaires motives.
Firstly, I did not directly state that Brexit is racist. What I did say was that I do not see Le Pen as being any more racist than Farage, or Le Front National as being any more racist than Brexit. It all depends what one's definition of racist is. One mistake that British people might make is to equate Le Front National with The National Front. They are not the same thing. Looking at Le Front National's manifesto I do not see anything any more racist than the main arguments I heard for Brexit.
If you choose not to read this then please don't assume that you know what Le Front National is proposing.
The question remains thereafter: 'Do you believe the manifesto and do you believe Le Pen?'
My answer to this question is no, in the same manner as I do not belive anything Farage, Johnson et al said during the referendum campaign. Much as Le Front National would be bad for France, so will Brexit be for the people of Britain. I do believe that Le Pen is inherently racist but I do also believe that this is true of Farage (hence my initial comment). This is of course my opinion. What is not opinion are the manifestos.
Lastly, some forecasts. 1. My forecast is that this Presendential race will finish closer than many predict. I have watched Macron speak on TV this evening just as I did Le Pen on Tuesday evening. Despite being a Macron supporter I fear that he will appear less convincing to some of those as yet undecided voters. Le Pen has a more convincing authoritarian manner. She has also learnt to smile and also to laugh politely when under criticism. She is a formidable politician and does deserve some grudging admiration. 2. A long term forecast: Do not underestimate the increasing force of Melenchon. He has gained huge support from the French youth. Whereas Le Front National's hard core support is the older generation, Melenchon's is the youth. The latter will only increase in number over time, and the former decrease. Melenchon may not continue much longer due to his age but this election will leave a legacy that the young electorate will continue.
Ah yes, but in many countries like our own the youth always support towards the left and the older generations more right wing. This trend has been going on for a long time, the youth don't carry on their liberal views forever, the world of work changes people's views to be more realistic as well as more hardline. I don't think we can say the FN will die with this older generation.
Another thing about France that should give Brits pause for thought and and a good long look at themselves, building on the 78% turnout in the first round.
Last night's debate between Macron and Le Pen was not conducted in front of a baying, derisive, tribal studio audience. It was between the two of them for two intense hours. And most British commentators I've heard and read today say it was the better for it. And it attracted 16m viewers.
In other words, the French seem to participate in their democracy more effectively and widely than currently the British do.
Firstly, I did not directly state that Brexit is racist. What I did say was that I do not see Le Pen as being any more racist than Farage, or Le Front National as being any more racist than Brexit. It all depends what one's definition of racist is. One mistake that British people might make is to equate Le Front National with The National Front. They are not the same thing. Looking at Le Front National's manifesto I do not see anything any more racist than the main arguments I heard for Brexit.
If you choose not to read this then please don't assume that you know what Le Front National is proposing.
The question remains thereafter: 'Do you believe the manifesto and do you believe Le Pen?'
My answer to this question is no, in the same manner as I do not belive anything Farage, Johnson et al said during the referendum campaign. Much as Le Front National would be bad for France, so will Brexit be for the people of Britain. I do believe that Le Pen is inherently racist but I do also believe that this is true of Farage (hence my initial comment). This is of course my opinion. What is not opinion are the manifestos.
Lastly, some forecasts. 1. My forecast is that this Presendential race will finish closer than many predict. I have watched Macron speak on TV this evening just as I did Le Pen on Tuesday evening. Despite being a Macron supporter I fear that he will appear less convincing to some of those as yet undecided voters. Le Pen has a more convincing authoritarian manner. She has also learnt to smile and also to laugh politely when under criticism. She is a formidable politician and does deserve some grudging admiration. 2. A long term forecast: Do not underestimate the increasing force of Melenchon. He has gained huge support from the French youth. Whereas Le Front National's hard core support is the older generation, Melenchon's is the youth. The latter will only increase in number over time, and the former decrease. Melenchon may not continue much longer due to his age but this election will leave a legacy that the young electorate will continue.
Ah yes, but in many countries like our own the youth always support towards the left and the older generations more right wing. This trend has been going on for a long time, the youth don't carry on their liberal views forever, the world of work changes people's views to be more realistic as well as more hardline. I don't think we can say the FN will die with this older generation.
I changed, I used to be a Tory when I was young. As I got older I realised what an unpleasant bunch they were generally, and how out for themselves they were, and that most people are better off being given a leg up rather than being pushed down. I realised how the press manipulated people to suit their agenda, which pretty much reflected that of the Tories. That's my realism.
Firstly, I did not directly state that Brexit is racist. What I did say was that I do not see Le Pen as being any more racist than Farage, or Le Front National as being any more racist than Brexit. It all depends what one's definition of racist is. One mistake that British people might make is to equate Le Front National with The National Front. They are not the same thing. Looking at Le Front National's manifesto I do not see anything any more racist than the main arguments I heard for Brexit.
If you choose not to read this then please don't assume that you know what Le Front National is proposing.
The question remains thereafter: 'Do you believe the manifesto and do you believe Le Pen?'
My answer to this question is no, in the same manner as I do not belive anything Farage, Johnson et al said during the referendum campaign. Much as Le Front National would be bad for France, so will Brexit be for the people of Britain. I do believe that Le Pen is inherently racist but I do also believe that this is true of Farage (hence my initial comment). This is of course my opinion. What is not opinion are the manifestos.
Lastly, some forecasts. 1. My forecast is that this Presendential race will finish closer than many predict. I have watched Macron speak on TV this evening just as I did Le Pen on Tuesday evening. Despite being a Macron supporter I fear that he will appear less convincing to some of those as yet undecided voters. Le Pen has a more convincing authoritarian manner. She has also learnt to smile and also to laugh politely when under criticism. She is a formidable politician and does deserve some grudging admiration. 2. A long term forecast: Do not underestimate the increasing force of Melenchon. He has gained huge support from the French youth. Whereas Le Front National's hard core support is the older generation, Melenchon's is the youth. The latter will only increase in number over time, and the former decrease. Melenchon may not continue much longer due to his age but this election will leave a legacy that the young electorate will continue.
Ah yes, but in many countries like our own the youth always support towards the left and the older generations more right wing. This trend has been going on for a long time, the youth don't carry on their liberal views forever, the world of work changes people's views to be more realistic as well as more hardline. I don't think we can say the FN will die with this older generation.
I think when I first registered to vote it was as a Democrat. It was just before the 2004 election, and I was 18. I was certainly on the far left end of their party then, if I was even a part of it.
I then went to uni at Berkeley in an area that's pretty liberal at a uni that's pretty liberal, though neither as liberal as their reputation dictates. I tended to get annoyed at being at parties or at the dinner table and listening to people try to out liberal each other.
I graduated in 2008, right as the economy was crashing. I had a job lined up, an offer that was revoked. I bounced around for years as the hiring requirements for even entry level jobs were ridiculous.
Coming through that, and onto the other side where I now sit in one of the higher tax brackets is what turned me into a self-defined Marxist, someone who is first and foremost critical of Capitalism. Almost ten years on, wages are only just starting to recover.
Many Millennials are struggling to catch up, if they ever will. I know that I was still behind what others were being paid for the same work until very recently. We are unable to buy homes, start families, etc as a result.
I think this trend of getting more conservative as you get older may wane with Millennials. I think a lot of us feel cheated by "the system." Socialism isn't a dirty word for us. And I think many of us, as we start to pay more and more in taxes, are concerned with creating a Government whose principles match our own. It's something I'm seeing with my friends, people I went to school with, etc., regardless of where people are on the income spectrum.
Also, remember that what is "realistic" to you and people of your age may not be "realistic" to others. As I said before, many in my generation feel like we've inherited a slowly failing, archaic, unfair economy, a Government that doesn't work, an environmental catastrophe, a massive national debt, the expenses of an aging population, poor wages, student debt, banks out to steal from us and lies from everyone that this isn't happening.
Another thing about France that should give Brits pause for thought and and a good long look at themselves, building on the 78% turnout in the first round.
Last night's debate between Macron and Le Pen was not conducted in front of a baying, derisive, tribal studio audience. It was between the two of them for two intense hours. And most British commentators I've heard and read today say it was the better for it. And it attracted 16m viewers.
In other words, the French seem to participate in their democracy more effectively and widely than currently the British do.
French legislative elections' turnout are in recent years below that of UK Parlimentary elections. There is a flux in French politics which is quite interesting, though getting past the pathetic puerile Anglo-Saxon belief that AJP Taylor's assesment on a French Republic rings true in every generation seems to be hard for some English, but ultimately it protects the bourgeoise more than anything else. It's an interesting paradox whereby with talent and a white face there is more possibility for access to top education and opportunity from lower income families, yet rarely do the bourgeoise get pushed out from their neighbourhood. White succesful middle class France likes to tell you how meritocracy is there in France but not present in modern England.
Having spent a fair bit of time in France, albeit with a very poor grasp of the language, I often enjoyed Friday nights as all the major leaders of parties engaged in debates in front of live audiences. Compared to our leading politicians they are often challenged and have to appear. Unlike say George Osborne who continually refused any appearances for years, until the odd economic policy worked, then he'd appear in stage managed press conferences. Major politicians in France have to appear on TV and are agressively grilled by the electorate, albeit in a managed TV studio: We get minor cabinet members on Question Time or major figures in minor parties. In short for all of France's huge problems, that direct link between politics and the various workforces/communities is much more present than in post-Thatcher Britain: Not a dig at Thatcher but just how lamentable Labour have been for the last 20+ years.
Firstly, I did not directly state that Brexit is racist. What I did say was that I do not see Le Pen as being any more racist than Farage, or Le Front National as being any more racist than Brexit. It all depends what one's definition of racist is. One mistake that British people might make is to equate Le Front National with The National Front. They are not the same thing. Looking at Le Front National's manifesto I do not see anything any more racist than the main arguments I heard for Brexit.
If you choose not to read this then please don't assume that you know what Le Front National is proposing.
The question remains thereafter: 'Do you believe the manifesto and do you believe Le Pen?'
My answer to this question is no, in the same manner as I do not belive anything Farage, Johnson et al said during the referendum campaign. Much as Le Front National would be bad for France, so will Brexit be for the people of Britain. I do believe that Le Pen is inherently racist but I do also believe that this is true of Farage (hence my initial comment). This is of course my opinion. What is not opinion are the manifestos.
Lastly, some forecasts. 1. My forecast is that this Presendential race will finish closer than many predict. I have watched Macron speak on TV this evening just as I did Le Pen on Tuesday evening. Despite being a Macron supporter I fear that he will appear less convincing to some of those as yet undecided voters. Le Pen has a more convincing authoritarian manner. She has also learnt to smile and also to laugh politely when under criticism. She is a formidable politician and does deserve some grudging admiration. 2. A long term forecast: Do not underestimate the increasing force of Melenchon. He has gained huge support from the French youth. Whereas Le Front National's hard core support is the older generation, Melenchon's is the youth. The latter will only increase in number over time, and the former decrease. Melenchon may not continue much longer due to his age but this election will leave a legacy that the young electorate will continue.
Just on the Brexit point
1) Britain didn't vote for Farage, but on a single issue in which he (while an important factor) wasn't even an official member of the out campaign. 2) UKIP has many other policies other than Brexit...but as the Council elections have shown are a busted flush, and lost all over the country, where Le Pen's popularity covers many more areas op policy.
Melenchon (like Corbyn) may attract much support from the younger people...but this isn't set for life, lots of people are radical when young but become more conservative and indeed Conservative as they get older.
Firstly, I did not directly state that Brexit is racist. What I did say was that I do not see Le Pen as being any more racist than Farage, or Le Front National as being any more racist than Brexit. It all depends what one's definition of racist is. One mistake that British people might make is to equate Le Front National with The National Front. They are not the same thing. Looking at Le Front National's manifesto I do not see anything any more racist than the main arguments I heard for Brexit.
If you choose not to read this then please don't assume that you know what Le Front National is proposing.
The question remains thereafter: 'Do you believe the manifesto and do you believe Le Pen?'
My answer to this question is no, in the same manner as I do not belive anything Farage, Johnson et al said during the referendum campaign. Much as Le Front National would be bad for France, so will Brexit be for the people of Britain. I do believe that Le Pen is inherently racist but I do also believe that this is true of Farage (hence my initial comment). This is of course my opinion. What is not opinion are the manifestos.
Lastly, some forecasts. 1. My forecast is that this Presendential race will finish closer than many predict. I have watched Macron speak on TV this evening just as I did Le Pen on Tuesday evening. Despite being a Macron supporter I fear that he will appear less convincing to some of those as yet undecided voters. Le Pen has a more convincing authoritarian manner. She has also learnt to smile and also to laugh politely when under criticism. She is a formidable politician and does deserve some grudging admiration. 2. A long term forecast: Do not underestimate the increasing force of Melenchon. He has gained huge support from the French youth. Whereas Le Front National's hard core support is the older generation, Melenchon's is the youth. The latter will only increase in number over time, and the former decrease. Melenchon may not continue much longer due to his age but this election will leave a legacy that the young electorate will continue.
Ah yes, but in many countries like our own the youth always support towards the left and the older generations more right wing. This trend has been going on for a long time, the youth don't carry on their liberal views forever, the world of work changes people's views to be more realistic as well as more hardline. I don't think we can say the FN will die with this older generation.
as has been writ (don't ask by whom) .. anyone who is not a socialist in their teens has not got a heart .. anyone who is still socialist in their forties has not got a brain
Firstly, I did not directly state that Brexit is racist. What I did say was that I do not see Le Pen as being any more racist than Farage, or Le Front National as being any more racist than Brexit. It all depends what one's definition of racist is. One mistake that British people might make is to equate Le Front National with The National Front. They are not the same thing. Looking at Le Front National's manifesto I do not see anything any more racist than the main arguments I heard for Brexit.
If you choose not to read this then please don't assume that you know what Le Front National is proposing.
The question remains thereafter: 'Do you believe the manifesto and do you believe Le Pen?'
My answer to this question is no, in the same manner as I do not belive anything Farage, Johnson et al said during the referendum campaign. Much as Le Front National would be bad for France, so will Brexit be for the people of Britain. I do believe that Le Pen is inherently racist but I do also believe that this is true of Farage (hence my initial comment). This is of course my opinion. What is not opinion are the manifestos.
Lastly, some forecasts. 1. My forecast is that this Presendential race will finish closer than many predict. I have watched Macron speak on TV this evening just as I did Le Pen on Tuesday evening. Despite being a Macron supporter I fear that he will appear less convincing to some of those as yet undecided voters. Le Pen has a more convincing authoritarian manner. She has also learnt to smile and also to laugh politely when under criticism. She is a formidable politician and does deserve some grudging admiration. 2. A long term forecast: Do not underestimate the increasing force of Melenchon. He has gained huge support from the French youth. Whereas Le Front National's hard core support is the older generation, Melenchon's is the youth. The latter will only increase in number over time, and the former decrease. Melenchon may not continue much longer due to his age but this election will leave a legacy that the young electorate will continue.
Ah yes, but in many countries like our own the youth always support towards the left and the older generations more right wing. This trend has been going on for a long time, the youth don't carry on their liberal views forever, the world of work changes people's views to be more realistic as well as more hardline. I don't think we can say the FN will die with this older generation.
as has been writ (don't ask by whom) .. anyone who is not a socialist in their teens has not got a heart .. anyone who is still socialist in their forties has not got a brain
Firstly, I did not directly state that Brexit is racist. What I did say was that I do not see Le Pen as being any more racist than Farage, or Le Front National as being any more racist than Brexit. It all depends what one's definition of racist is. One mistake that British people might make is to equate Le Front National with The National Front. They are not the same thing. Looking at Le Front National's manifesto I do not see anything any more racist than the main arguments I heard for Brexit.
If you choose not to read this then please don't assume that you know what Le Front National is proposing.
The question remains thereafter: 'Do you believe the manifesto and do you believe Le Pen?'
My answer to this question is no, in the same manner as I do not belive anything Farage, Johnson et al said during the referendum campaign. Much as Le Front National would be bad for France, so will Brexit be for the people of Britain. I do believe that Le Pen is inherently racist but I do also believe that this is true of Farage (hence my initial comment). This is of course my opinion. What is not opinion are the manifestos.
Lastly, some forecasts. 1. My forecast is that this Presendential race will finish closer than many predict. I have watched Macron speak on TV this evening just as I did Le Pen on Tuesday evening. Despite being a Macron supporter I fear that he will appear less convincing to some of those as yet undecided voters. Le Pen has a more convincing authoritarian manner. She has also learnt to smile and also to laugh politely when under criticism. She is a formidable politician and does deserve some grudging admiration. 2. A long term forecast: Do not underestimate the increasing force of Melenchon. He has gained huge support from the French youth. Whereas Le Front National's hard core support is the older generation, Melenchon's is the youth. The latter will only increase in number over time, and the former decrease. Melenchon may not continue much longer due to his age but this election will leave a legacy that the young electorate will continue.
Ah yes, but in many countries like our own the youth always support towards the left and the older generations more right wing. This trend has been going on for a long time, the youth don't carry on their liberal views forever, the world of work changes people's views to be more realistic as well as more hardline. I don't think we can say the FN will die with this older generation.
as has been writ (don't ask by whom) .. anyone who is not a socialist in their teens has not got a heart .. anyone who is still socialist in their forties has not got a brain
Comments
Fillon (19% first round) jumped stright in to back Macron but the independent socialist Melenchon (also 19%) has been more circumspect.
For sure terrorism might play a part in the campaign? So Macron has launched with a commitment which states: "security is the first freedom, and therefore proposes to recruit 10,000 extra police officers and gendarmes."
Let's see how the polls move between now and Friday week.
You don't need me to read and translate. If you are interested read the manifesto in English here: https://www.marine2017.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/a4_144_engagements_eng_bd.pdf
If you choose not to read this then please don't assume that you know what Le Front National is proposing.
The question remains thereafter: 'Do you believe the manifesto and do you believe Le Pen?'
My answer to this question is no, in the same manner as I do not belive anything Farage, Johnson et al said during the referendum campaign. Much as Le Front National would be bad for France, so will Brexit be for the people of Britain. I do believe that Le Pen is inherently racist but I do also believe that this is true of Farage (hence my initial comment). This is of course my opinion. What is not opinion are the manifestos.
Lastly, some forecasts.
1. My forecast is that this Presendential race will finish closer than many predict. I have watched Macron speak on TV this evening just as I did Le Pen on Tuesday evening. Despite being a Macron supporter I fear that he will appear less convincing to some of those as yet undecided voters. Le Pen has a more convincing authoritarian manner. She has also learnt to smile and also to laugh politely when under criticism. She is a formidable politician and does deserve some grudging admiration.
2. A long term forecast: Do not underestimate the increasing force of Melenchon. He has gained huge support from the French youth. Whereas Le Front National's hard core support is the older generation, Melenchon's is the youth. The latter will only increase in number over time, and the former decrease. Melenchon may not continue much longer due to his age but this election will leave a legacy that the young electorate will continue.
For what it's worth, I actually agree with you. I dont think Le Pen is campaigning on an overtly racist front; the friction with her father is a good example of this, and IMO so is the seemed to posture herself to focus on the office and not the party. Some of her proposed policies are actually pretty good, and would result in positive change to be entirely honest.
From what I've read I can't really warm to Macron, even though he does appear to be a more sane and stable choice - and for that reason I'd like to see him gain office.
As for condusive - much better. Ol' Webster got that one wrong IMO..
Nasty bit of work. Nobody should be in any doubt about that.
There isn't even a significant correlation between the German imposed occupied area and the FN vote in any case
Nationalism, populism, protectionism, and mercantilism are all easy emotional sells where people perceive they're losing out. Sure there is similarities there with Trump. The major difference with Trump is that his message to blue collar white America is an absolute lie, he's underwritten and influenced economically by those who're anti-union and short-termist asset strippers. Whilst Trump really believes in the free market as long as the US is allowed to game it in order to dominate, Le Pen attempts to co-opt anti-capitalist and protectionist policies from the far right and left: Which can be paralleled with the populist co-opting of certain social-economic policies of the National Socialists.
As for the alt-right, they're no different to the Lefties in the Twitteratti in their thin skinned hyperbole. They're not alt-right, they're the same as before but now they have a platform and unlike the left their interests suit some billionaires motives.
Last night's debate between Macron and Le Pen was not conducted in front of a baying, derisive, tribal studio audience. It was between the two of them for two intense hours. And most British commentators I've heard and read today say it was the better for it. And it attracted 16m viewers.
In other words, the French seem to participate in their democracy more effectively and widely than currently the British do.
I then went to uni at Berkeley in an area that's pretty liberal at a uni that's pretty liberal, though neither as liberal as their reputation dictates. I tended to get annoyed at being at parties or at the dinner table and listening to people try to out liberal each other.
I graduated in 2008, right as the economy was crashing. I had a job lined up, an offer that was revoked. I bounced around for years as the hiring requirements for even entry level jobs were ridiculous.
Coming through that, and onto the other side where I now sit in one of the higher tax brackets is what turned me into a self-defined Marxist, someone who is first and foremost critical of Capitalism. Almost ten years on, wages are only just starting to recover.
Many Millennials are struggling to catch up, if they ever will. I know that I was still behind what others were being paid for the same work until very recently. We are unable to buy homes, start families, etc as a result.
I think this trend of getting more conservative as you get older may wane with Millennials. I think a lot of us feel cheated by "the system." Socialism isn't a dirty word for us. And I think many of us, as we start to pay more and more in taxes, are concerned with creating a Government whose principles match our own. It's something I'm seeing with my friends, people I went to school with, etc., regardless of where people are on the income spectrum.
Also, remember that what is "realistic" to you and people of your age may not be "realistic" to others. As I said before, many in my generation feel like we've inherited a slowly failing, archaic, unfair economy, a Government that doesn't work, an environmental catastrophe, a massive national debt, the expenses of an aging population, poor wages, student debt, banks out to steal from us and lies from everyone that this isn't happening.
Having spent a fair bit of time in France, albeit with a very poor grasp of the language, I often enjoyed Friday nights as all the major leaders of parties engaged in debates in front of live audiences. Compared to our leading politicians they are often challenged and have to appear. Unlike say George Osborne who continually refused any appearances for years, until the odd economic policy worked, then he'd appear in stage managed press conferences. Major politicians in France have to appear on TV and are agressively grilled by the electorate, albeit in a managed TV studio: We get minor cabinet members on Question Time or major figures in minor parties. In short for all of France's huge problems, that direct link between politics and the various workforces/communities is much more present than in post-Thatcher Britain: Not a dig at Thatcher but just how lamentable Labour have been for the last 20+ years.
1) Britain didn't vote for Farage, but on a single issue in which he (while an important factor) wasn't even an official member of the out campaign.
2) UKIP has many other policies other than Brexit...but as the Council elections have shown are a busted flush, and lost all over the country, where Le Pen's popularity covers many more areas op policy.
Melenchon (like Corbyn) may attract much support from the younger people...but this isn't set for life, lots of people are radical when young but become more conservative and indeed Conservative as they get older.
Not that it will matter in today's media environment. If people want to find out - they will.
As the fake "Darth Putin" account on Twitter regularly says: "Never believe anything until the Kremlin denies it".