FTSE 100 now touching 5,800, and most other open markets are similarly up, lets see what the Dow does. I suppose we should all personally be happy with that, but it all looks too much of a recovery too soon, to me.
Correct.
In any bear market, there will always be days when the market goes up. Sometimes it will go up for days on end. The rises can sometimes be spectacular. The classic suckers rally - all designed to draw the mug punters back in who have been told the market has reached the bottom and has turned.
Then watch the market plummet again after all the mug punters have come back in.
Given we have several hundred people dying every day of Coronavirus, no clear idea yet when or how the current lockdown is going to end, daily announcements of big name companies going bust, Government borrowing going through the roof and the realisation that thousands of jobs that have been lost will never return can someone please tell me what on earth has happened to make the market rise as far and as fast as it has over recent days?
I'm still convinced the one final, huge sell-off is still to come. Just not sure at present what will cause it.
FTSE 100 now touching 5,800, and most other open markets are similarly up, lets see what the Dow does. I suppose we should all personally be happy with that, but it all looks too much of a recovery too soon, to me.
Correct.
In any bear market, there will always be days when the market goes up. Sometimes it will go up for days on end. The rises can sometimes be spectacular. The classic suckers rally - all designed to draw the mug punters back in who have been told the market has reached the bottom and has turned.
Then watch the market plummet again after all the mug punters have come back in.
Given we have several hundred people dying every day of Coronavirus, no clear idea yet when or how the current lockdown is going to end, daily announcements of big name companies going bust, Government borrowing going through the roof and the realisation that thousands of jobs that have been lost will never return can someone please tell me what on earth has happened to make the market rise as far and as fast as it has over recent days?
I'm still convinced the one final, huge sell-off is still to come. Just not sure at present what will cause it.
I think it will fall again. Perhaps if Trump or another world leader contracts COVID-19? There will surely be some more really bad COVID related news that will rattle the markets again?
FTSE 100 now touching 5,800, and most other open markets are similarly up, lets see what the Dow does. I suppose we should all personally be happy with that, but it all looks too much of a recovery too soon, to me.
Correct.
In any bear market, there will always be days when the market goes up. Sometimes it will go up for days on end. The rises can sometimes be spectacular. The classic suckers rally - all designed to draw the mug punters back in who have been told the market has reached the bottom and has turned.
Then watch the market plummet again after all the mug punters have come back in.
Given we have several hundred people dying every day of Coronavirus, no clear idea yet when or how the current lockdown is going to end, daily announcements of big name companies going bust, Government borrowing going through the roof and the realisation that thousands of jobs that have been lost will never return can someone please tell me what on earth has happened to make the market rise as far and as fast as it has over recent days?
I'm still convinced the one final, huge sell-off is still to come. Just not sure at present what will cause it.
You really have no idea how the stockmarkets work.
Remind me .....what did I have down for the closing figure of the FTSE 100 come August...😀
7,000.
Wrong.
I think I said at the end of July it would be around 6500.
Sorry @PragueAddick, I forgot you were keeping score 😀.
On March 6th I did say that on August 1st the FTSE100 would be back to 7000 points
Maybe now a tad optimistic, but I still think it will be 6500+ around then.
It's just for fun Golfie, and maybe when we see how we have all done we will learn some small lessons from how things panned out compared to how we thought they would at the time.
An article in the FT on Tuesday quotes analysts predicting that now we have a bear rally which will be punctured by the upcoming earnings reports of big players. I fear that will be true, but that maybe the floor of about 5000 on FT100 might hold even so. But that is based on little more than "sentiment" on my part
FTSE 100 now touching 5,800, and most other open markets are similarly up, lets see what the Dow does. I suppose we should all personally be happy with that, but it all looks too much of a recovery too soon, to me.
Correct.
In any bear market, there will always be days when the market goes up. Sometimes it will go up for days on end. The rises can sometimes be spectacular. The classic suckers rally - all designed to draw the mug punters back in who have been told the market has reached the bottom and has turned.
Then watch the market plummet again after all the mug punters have come back in.
Given we have several hundred people dying every day of Coronavirus, no clear idea yet when or how the current lockdown is going to end, daily announcements of big name companies going bust, Government borrowing going through the roof and the realisation that thousands of jobs that have been lost will never return can someone please tell me what on earth has happened to make the market rise as far and as fast as it has over recent days?
I'm still convinced the one final, huge sell-off is still to come. Just not sure at present what will cause it.
You really have no idea how the stockmarkets work.
Time will tell. I'll be delighted to be proved wrong.
Always good to see money market smugness with things are in (temporary) blue
I used to like watching the TOPIX screens when I worked in the City. I remember the day when we joined the ERM. We didnt have a TV in the office at that time & that afternoon suddenly the whole screen started to turn blue....just as the ticket tape news at the bottom came up with the news.
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Golfie knows a hundred times better than me on this sort of stuff- happy to admit that - but surely this is not the time to put a large slug of money into the market?
As I write, the FTSE has just gone through the 5000 barrier again. Take your pick at the next support level. 4500? 3500? 2750? Nobody knows. But I would hazard a guess that If London does go into absolute lockdown, there will be armegedon on the markets.
Surely there will be better opportunities to invest your money over the coming weeks?
When the markets rebound from the bottom, they usually pick up massively very quickly. Ok not to where they were, but if they say bottom out at 4000 it may only be for one day. I would fully expect a couple of large rebounds at say 10% on consecutive days. So if your money isn't immediately available it's almost impossible to pick the bottom.
FTSE 100 at 5772. I think I called it right and backed myself. I've still kept some back for the next fall, as there is bound to be a dodgy spell.
Markets showing more strength today, which I find, frankly, baffling.
The markets are always looking ahead at least 6 months.
But a lot of people are looking six months ahead and not liking what they see. Bankruptcies, dividends withheld, that sort of thing.
Well, whatever. Of course its better for all of us on this thread if markets go up, but I'm not counting on it going further, and am sitting on some cash. A lot of the drive seems to be from tech stocks, and I did add to some of my holdings there. I have Allianz and Polar Capital investment trusts and both are just below their all time highs. But I think that in that sector Google and Facebook will disappoint in the next six months, they are basically advertising media owners, and that's the first thing that gets binned in a recession.
Markets showing more strength today, which I find, frankly, baffling.
The markets are always looking ahead at least 6 months.
But a lot of people are looking six months ahead and not liking what they see. Bankruptcies, dividends withheld, that sort of thing.
Well, whatever. Of course its better for all of us on this thread if markets go up, but I'm not counting on it going further, and am sitting on some cash. A lot of the drive seems to be from tech stocks, and I did add to some of my holdings there. I have Allianz and Polar Capital investment trusts and both are just below their all time highs. But I think that in that sector Google and Facebook will disappoint in the next six months, they are basically advertising media owners, and that's the first thing that gets binned in a recession.
As I said on here last month, the sell off was overblown as traders panicked. Now things have settled down & some countries are starting to look at easing lockdowns traders can now see the wood for the trees.
Markets showing more strength today, which I find, frankly, baffling.
The markets are always looking ahead at least 6 months.
But a lot of people are looking six months ahead and not liking what they see. Bankruptcies, dividends withheld, that sort of thing.
Well, whatever. Of course its better for all of us on this thread if markets go up, but I'm not counting on it going further, and am sitting on some cash. A lot of the drive seems to be from tech stocks, and I did add to some of my holdings there. I have Allianz and Polar Capital investment trusts and both are just below their all time highs. But I think that in that sector Google and Facebook will disappoint in the next six months, they are basically advertising media owners, and that's the first thing that gets binned in a recession.
As I said on here last month, the sell off was overblown as traders panicked. Now things have settled down & some countries are starting to look at easing lockdowns traders can now see the wood for the trees.
Yeah and when they see some actual earnings figures they'll be running for the hills! :-:smile:
I have a few quid "spare" and am thinking of investing it in the stock market while it's low. Can hang on until recovery. Anyone suggest an equity worth a punt and why?
Novacyt Group
Diagnostic test provider. Keep an eye on the US FDA EUA approval website. Have been in since 37p 😁
Looks a good call. Thanks. You did well at 37p!!
Did anyone take up my recommendation? I am still involved somehow, closed around £4,20 today.
For anyone interested, they have recently agreed 3 x third party manufacture agreements in the UK to increase manufacturing to 8m tests a month, based here in Southampton!
In the coming weeks I'm also expecting a Government backed announcement relating to a new extraction method they are working on, which will significantly reduce testing times and avoid the shortage for scarce reagents / chemicals. I expect a big push from the media and government on this towards the end of April.
They have also got into bed with GSK and AstraZeneca and working in collaboration with them and Cambridge University at one of the new "super labs" set up in Cambridge. I expect a joint venture or takeover could be on the horizon.
Fun fact for you all.... 7 weeks ago, the government had the opportunity to source millions of testing kits from them, instead they chose to spend money on Chinese antibody tests that were not validated by PHE, in the misguided belief that they would be able to tell you both if you currently HAVE or HAD the virus, which is not the case. Wasted not only money but the opportunity to secure precious stock.
Meanwhile, Novacyt continued to manufacture and sell to 80 countries globally who wanted their kits, including the US, Thailand, India, France, Germany. You name it, they have distributors there. Recently got WHO approved, with only Roche and Abbott joining them on the list.
6-7 weeks later the Matt Handc0ck comes running back, cap in hand. This whole fiasco could of been easily avoided.
Markets showing more strength today, which I find, frankly, baffling.
The markets are always looking ahead at least 6 months.
But a lot of people are looking six months ahead and not liking what they see. Bankruptcies, dividends withheld, that sort of thing.
Well, whatever. Of course its better for all of us on this thread if markets go up, but I'm not counting on it going further, and am sitting on some cash. A lot of the drive seems to be from tech stocks, and I did add to some of my holdings there. I have Allianz and Polar Capital investment trusts and both are just below their all time highs. But I think that in that sector Google and Facebook will disappoint in the next six months, they are basically advertising media owners, and that's the first thing that gets binned in a recession.
As I said on here last month, the sell off was overblown as traders panicked. Now things have settled down & some countries are starting to look at easing lockdowns traders can now see the wood for the trees.
LOL! I said the same and got my knuckles firmly wrapped by those who work in the City. Didn't I know trading was all computer programme driven these days and actual trading by individuals a rarity? So traders panicking couldn't have effected the market.
As you said to me, you really have no idea how the stockmarkets work!
(Just joking by the way. I find most of your posts really interesting and helpful although I am scratching my head desperately at all your posts saying things will be back to normal by the summer.)
Markets showing more strength today, which I find, frankly, baffling.
The markets are always looking ahead at least 6 months.
I've often heard this said. All I can say they must be using the GS briefings (still saying this will all soon blow over) and using rose coloured glasses to think things are going to quickly return to normal.
Briefly, amongst the things in last week's news:-
OBR saying curbs staying in place for three months will slash GDP by 35 per cent,
with unemployment soaring to 10 per cent and the government's deficit
hitting £273billion - the highest level since the Second World War.
OBR also saying Public sector net borrowing increases by £218 billion in 2020-21
relative to their March budget forecast (to reach £273 billion or 14 per cent of
GDP). Say that again, £218 billion!
the IMF predicting the worst global downturn since the Great Depression in 1929
the Sunday Times carrying an article predicting dividends paid out this year will fall to £50 billion from £75 billion last year. (That is a huge hit)
a forecast spike in inflation.
And today's Sunday Times has a whole host of gloomy predictions about what might happen if the lockdown continues eg failure to ease restrictions will mean 6 out of 10 businesses running out of cash within 12 weeks.
We have no real idea how the lockdown will end and how successful it will be. Suppose there is a huge hike in the number of cases and the lockdown has to be re-imposed? What then?
History has proved that markets do always rise again (although one of my favourite statistics is that when the markets started to fall in early 2000, it took 15 years for the FTSE to return to the level it was on 31/12/99. Could that happen again here when/if the gravity of the situation is really realised ?
Markets showing more strength today, which I find, frankly, baffling.
The markets are always looking ahead at least 6 months.
I've often heard this said. All I can say they must be using the GS briefings (still saying this will all soon blow over) and using rose coloured glasses to think things are going to quickly return to normal.
Briefly, amongst the things in last week's news:-
OBR saying curbs staying in place for three months will slash GDP by 35 per cent,
with unemployment soaring to 10 per cent and the government's deficit
hitting £273billion - the highest level since the Second World War.
OBR also saying Public sector net borrowing increases by £218 billion in 2020-21
relative to their March budget forecast (to reach £273 billion or 14 per cent of
GDP). Say that again, £218 billion!
the IMF predicting the worst global downturn since the Great Depression in 1929
the Sunday Times carrying an article predicting dividends paid out this year will fall to £50 billion from £75 billion last year. (That is a huge hit)
a forecast spike in inflation.
And today's Sunday Times has a whole host of gloomy predictions about what might happen if the lockdown continues eg failure to ease restrictions will mean 6 out of 10 businesses running out of cash within 12 weeks.
We have no real idea how the lockdown will end and how successful it will be. Suppose there is a huge hike in the number of cases and the lockdown has to be re-imposed? What then?
History has proved that markets do always rise again (although one of my favourite statistics is that when the markets started to fall in early 2000, it took 15 years for the FTSE to return to the level it was on 31/12/99. Could that happen again here when/if the gravity of the situation is really realised ?
Just a couple of points to counter that.......
The OBR did say that their "observations" were purely that. They werent even "predictions". Their figures have as much credence as the figures bandied about at the time of Brexit. Worse case scenarios and all that.
Inflation usually happens when demand outstrips supply. When people have money to burn & when people are getting ever increasing pay rises. I cant see any of those 3 things happening anytime soon.
I will say that I am no economist. Best I ever got was an "O" level in Economics........so I could be talking crap. But I bet my bottom dollar than both inflation & interest rates wont be rising this year or next.
Markets showing more strength today, which I find, frankly, baffling.
The markets are always looking ahead at least 6 months.
I've often heard this said. All I can say they must be using the GS briefings (still saying this will all soon blow over) and using rose coloured glasses to think things are going to quickly return to normal.
Briefly, amongst the things in last week's news:-
OBR saying curbs staying in place for three months will slash GDP by 35 per cent,
with unemployment soaring to 10 per cent and the government's deficit
hitting £273billion - the highest level since the Second World War.
OBR also saying Public sector net borrowing increases by £218 billion in 2020-21
relative to their March budget forecast (to reach £273 billion or 14 per cent of
GDP). Say that again, £218 billion!
the IMF predicting the worst global downturn since the Great Depression in 1929
the Sunday Times carrying an article predicting dividends paid out this year will fall to £50 billion from £75 billion last year. (That is a huge hit)
a forecast spike in inflation.
And today's Sunday Times has a whole host of gloomy predictions about what might happen if the lockdown continues eg failure to ease restrictions will mean 6 out of 10 businesses running out of cash within 12 weeks.
We have no real idea how the lockdown will end and how successful it will be. Suppose there is a huge hike in the number of cases and the lockdown has to be re-imposed? What then?
History has proved that markets do always rise again (although one of my favourite statistics is that when the markets started to fall in early 2000, it took 15 years for the FTSE to return to the level it was on 31/12/99. Could that happen again here when/if the gravity of the situation is really realised ?
Best I ever got was an "O" level in Economics
And you wonder why people think IFA's are in on a massive racket?
Markets showing more strength today, which I find, frankly, baffling.
The markets are always looking ahead at least 6 months.
I've often heard this said. All I can say they must be using the GS briefings (still saying this will all soon blow over) and using rose coloured glasses to think things are going to quickly return to normal.
Briefly, amongst the things in last week's news:-
OBR saying curbs staying in place for three months will slash GDP by 35 per cent,
with unemployment soaring to 10 per cent and the government's deficit
hitting £273billion - the highest level since the Second World War.
OBR also saying Public sector net borrowing increases by £218 billion in 2020-21
relative to their March budget forecast (to reach £273 billion or 14 per cent of
GDP). Say that again, £218 billion!
the IMF predicting the worst global downturn since the Great Depression in 1929
the Sunday Times carrying an article predicting dividends paid out this year will fall to £50 billion from £75 billion last year. (That is a huge hit)
a forecast spike in inflation.
And today's Sunday Times has a whole host of gloomy predictions about what might happen if the lockdown continues eg failure to ease restrictions will mean 6 out of 10 businesses running out of cash within 12 weeks.
We have no real idea how the lockdown will end and how successful it will be. Suppose there is a huge hike in the number of cases and the lockdown has to be re-imposed? What then?
History has proved that markets do always rise again (although one of my favourite statistics is that when the markets started to fall in early 2000, it took 15 years for the FTSE to return to the level it was on 31/12/99. Could that happen again here when/if the gravity of the situation is really realised ?
Best I ever got was an "O" level in Economics
And you wonder why people think IFA's are in on a massive racket?
Don't know what you are talking about mate. You don't need an Economics degree to advise clients about where to invest, or whether a pension or an ISA is better for them.
FWIW. I have taken more exams than you can shake a stick at. 3 times the FSA/FCA have asked Advisers to be "qualified". First time was in the early 90's when I was with The Prudential. Then again late 90's when I was about to become an IFA. Then again about 10 years ago when diplomas were brought in.
I agree, there used to be all sorts working in the industry 30 years ago.....failed car mechanics, builders etc.. They have all been weeded out years ago.
FWIW 2. I get updates every month from various fund management companies about the state of the economy & where they see things heading.
Comments
I seem to recall you saying something like 9,000, Golfie - too early to gloat ;-)
In any bear market, there will always be days when the market goes up. Sometimes it will go up for days on end. The rises can sometimes be spectacular. The classic suckers rally - all designed to draw the mug punters back in who have been told the market has reached the bottom and has turned.
Then watch the market plummet again after all the mug punters have come back in.
Given we have several hundred people dying every day of Coronavirus, no clear idea yet when or how the current lockdown is going to end, daily announcements of big name companies going bust, Government borrowing going through the roof and the realisation that thousands of jobs that have been lost will never return can someone please tell me what on earth has happened to make the market rise as far and as fast as it has over recent days?
I'm still convinced the one final, huge sell-off is still to come. Just not sure at present what will cause it.
There will surely be some more really bad COVID related news that will rattle the markets again?
I think I said at the end of July it would be around 6500.
On March 6th I did say that on August 1st the FTSE100 would be back to 7000 points
Maybe now a tad optimistic, but I still think it will be 6500+ around then.
An article in the FT on Tuesday quotes analysts predicting that now we have a bear rally which will be punctured by the upcoming earnings reports of big players. I fear that will be true, but that maybe the floor of about 5000 on FT100 might hold even so. But that is based on little more than "sentiment" on my part
Market performance is affected by many things, GDP (or lack of it) is only a small part of the parcel.
https://nsandi-corporate.com/news-research/news/nsi-supports-savers-unprecedented-time
Premium bonds look a little more attractive now!
I think I called it right and backed myself.
I've still kept some back for the next fall, as there is bound to be a dodgy spell.
Well, whatever. Of course its better for all of us on this thread if markets go up, but I'm not counting on it going further, and am sitting on some cash. A lot of the drive seems to be from tech stocks, and I did add to some of my holdings there. I have Allianz and Polar Capital investment trusts and both are just below their all time highs. But I think that in that sector Google and Facebook will disappoint in the next six months, they are basically advertising media owners, and that's the first thing that gets binned in a recession.
Did anyone take up my recommendation? I am still involved somehow, closed around £4,20 today.
For anyone interested, they have recently agreed 3 x third party manufacture agreements in the UK to increase manufacturing to 8m tests a month, based here in Southampton!
In the coming weeks I'm also expecting a Government backed announcement relating to a new extraction method they are working on, which will significantly reduce testing times and avoid the shortage for scarce reagents / chemicals. I expect a big push from the media and government on this towards the end of April.
They have also got into bed with GSK and AstraZeneca and working in collaboration with them and Cambridge University at one of the new "super labs" set up in Cambridge. I expect a joint venture or takeover could be on the horizon.
Fun fact for you all.... 7 weeks ago, the government had the opportunity to source millions of testing kits from them, instead they chose to spend money on Chinese antibody tests that were not validated by PHE, in the misguided belief that they would be able to tell you both if you currently HAVE or HAD the virus, which is not the case. Wasted not only money but the opportunity to secure precious stock.
Meanwhile, Novacyt continued to manufacture and sell to 80 countries globally who wanted their kits, including the US, Thailand, India, France, Germany. You name it, they have distributors there. Recently got WHO approved, with only Roche and Abbott joining them on the list.
6-7 weeks later the Matt Handc0ck comes running back, cap in hand. This whole fiasco could of been easily avoided.
As you said to me, you really have no idea how the stockmarkets work!
(Just joking by the way. I find most of your posts really interesting and helpful although I am scratching my head desperately at all your posts saying things will be back to normal by the summer.)
Briefly, amongst the things in last week's news:-
- a forecast spike in inflation.
And today's Sunday Times has a whole host of gloomy predictions about what might happen if the lockdown continues eg failure to ease restrictions will mean 6 out of 10 businesses running out of cash within 12 weeks.We have no real idea how the lockdown will end and how successful it will be. Suppose there is a huge hike in the number of cases and the lockdown has to be re-imposed? What then?
History has proved that markets do always rise again (although one of my favourite statistics is that when the markets started to fall in early 2000, it took 15 years for the FTSE to return to the level it was on 31/12/99. Could that happen again here when/if the gravity of the situation is really realised ?
The OBR did say that their "observations" were purely that. They werent even "predictions". Their figures have as much credence as the figures bandied about at the time of Brexit. Worse case scenarios and all that.
Inflation usually happens when demand outstrips supply. When people have money to burn & when people are getting ever increasing pay rises. I cant see any of those 3 things happening anytime soon.
I will say that I am no economist. Best I ever got was an "O" level in Economics........so I could be talking crap. But I bet my bottom dollar than both inflation & interest rates wont be rising this year or next.
FWIW. I have taken more exams than you can shake a stick at. 3 times the FSA/FCA have asked Advisers to be "qualified". First time was in the early 90's when I was with The Prudential. Then again late 90's when I was about to become an IFA. Then again about 10 years ago when diplomas were brought in.
I agree, there used to be all sorts working in the industry 30 years ago.....failed car mechanics, builders etc.. They have all been weeded out years ago.
FWIW 2. I get updates every month from various fund management companies about the state of the economy & where they see things heading.