I think I need to learn a lesson from the current crisis and IF levels ever get back to a profit on my ISA share holding, then I might just tip most of it into gold (which presumably will be at a decent buy rate, if the share market has recovered).
Very difficult to hold gold, unless you have bundles of money. Nearest most people will get to it is buying an ETF & even then the price can drop just as much as the stockmarket has.
Could I not buy it and store it?
Does it not tend to hold it's value in times of crisis? I'm not looking to make on gold.....just hold a degree of profit value generated by any share sales (probably in about 10 years time!)
I think I need to learn a lesson from the current crisis and IF levels ever get back to a profit on my ISA share holding, then I might just tip most of it into gold (which presumably will be at a decent buy rate, if the share market has recovered).
Very difficult to hold gold, unless you have bundles of money. Nearest most people will get to it is buying an ETF & even then the price can drop just as much as the stockmarket has.
Could I not buy it and store it?
Does it not tend to hold it's value in times of crisis? I'm not looking to make on gold.....just hold a degree of profit value generated by any share sales (probably in about 10 years time!)
I dont think you can physically buy gold, not the type you are thinking off. Gold jewelry & stuff is different and doesn't really compare to the current price of Gold.
And if you haven't been following things over the past 20 years, check our Gordon Browns abject failure in guessing where the price of Gold might go.
That's a really interesting read. Thanks for posting.
And OK, I apologise for referring to kiddie traders! It's just I get really irked when after the market has a bad fall, a pundit will come on and say something like traders just didn't feel confident today. **** me, there have been loads of times I haven't felt confident at work but I've never wreaked havoc when I felt that!
You ask if I would be more understanding of the moves that are occurring if they happened across say a 6 month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased. The answer to that would be an undoubted yes. It might also stop share prices across the board being hammered without any rhyme or reason in some cases.
So what do you think the next few weeks hold? Lots of violent ups and downs for a couple of weeks before a final huge sell-off?
Sadly a pundits role is largely either to state the obvious or try and commentate and create a story that isn't necessarily there. It's a bit like football commentary really...
Goes without saying that there will be a lot of volatility and I fully expect more downturns. I think the market will attempt to rebound because it naturally wants to, but there will be no longevity to this rise as it isn't based on any substance. Friday FTSE trading was a great example of this, in the first half hour the index was up +5%...ended the day up 75bps. There were no fundamentals to back an increase of that size and after that reality dawned, it lost any early momentum. One thing that can't be underestimated in modern-day trading and a key factor of big price swings is the instantaneous nature of news hitting the markets and the immediate response to that. Markets sell off instantly to headlines now, there is no time delay or pause for digesting the info and trading accordingly. On Friday the news that Boris would be telling pubs/clubs/restaurants to shut hit Bloomberg around 3.30pm. This led to another legdown on the FTSE and the reason I raise this, any headline relating to the covid response (of which there will be many) will be met with an instant exaggerated response in the markets. There doesn't seem to be much positivity on the horizon to me and the full impact in the US hasn't been felt yet.
Trading markets right now is almost like trading the healthcare sector, because the way I see it, only a miracle covid curing drug being established or data proving a reduction in victims will force the markets upwards with any longevity. We are told that whilst drugs are in the testing period, it will take c.12-18 months to fully license and using Italy as a barometer, we are on an eerily similar trajectory with the number of deaths at a like for like stage. The UK death toll is almost identical to Italy's 14 days in to the virus fully hitting. A further fortnight down the line, Italy has just under 5k deaths. I imagine the UK is on for the same figure, if not more - this will undoubtedly lead to more market pain if we eclipse that figure.
As I write this, FTSE is down nearly 5% on the day. Has there been any specific new cause for this over and above what we already know? Not really directly related to the UK. That tells you everything you need to know about investing right now.
I think I need to learn a lesson from the current crisis and IF levels ever get back to a profit on my ISA share holding, then I might just tip most of it into gold (which presumably will be at a decent buy rate, if the share market has recovered).
Very difficult to hold gold, unless you have bundles of money. Nearest most people will get to it is buying an ETF & even then the price can drop just as much as the stockmarket has.
Could I not buy it and store it?
Does it not tend to hold it's value in times of crisis? I'm not looking to make on gold.....just hold a degree of profit value generated by any share sales (probably in about 10 years time!)
I dont think you can physically buy gold, not the type you are thinking off. Gold jewelry & stuff is different and doesn't really compare to the current price of Gold.
And if you haven't been following things over the past 20 years, check our Gordon Browns abject failure in guessing where the price of Gold might go.
Gold.co.uk appear to sell gold. This one costs £21,626 and £16.25/month to store it at Brinks (unless I'm reading it wrong!!!)
I think I need to learn a lesson from the current crisis and IF levels ever get back to a profit on my ISA share holding, then I might just tip most of it into gold (which presumably will be at a decent buy rate, if the share market has recovered).
Very difficult to hold gold, unless you have bundles of money. Nearest most people will get to it is buying an ETF & even then the price can drop just as much as the stockmarket has.
Could I not buy it and store it?
Does it not tend to hold it's value in times of crisis? I'm not looking to make on gold.....just hold a degree of profit value generated by any share sales (probably in about 10 years time!)
I dont think you can physically buy gold, not the type you are thinking off. Gold jewelry & stuff is different and doesn't really compare to the current price of Gold.
And if you haven't been following things over the past 20 years, check our Gordon Browns abject failure in guessing where the price of Gold might go.
Gold.co.uk appear to sell gold. This one costs £21,626 and £16.25/month to store it at Brinks (unless I'm reading it wrong!!!)
Gold prices tend to peak in times of crises, so generally speaking if you choose to buy gold, you should be waiting until the crisis is over and the price drops, rather than now when the price is peaking.
I think I need to learn a lesson from the current crisis and IF levels ever get back to a profit on my ISA share holding, then I might just tip most of it into gold (which presumably will be at a decent buy rate, if the share market has recovered).
Very difficult to hold gold, unless you have bundles of money. Nearest most people will get to it is buying an ETF & even then the price can drop just as much as the stockmarket has.
Could I not buy it and store it?
Does it not tend to hold it's value in times of crisis? I'm not looking to make on gold.....just hold a degree of profit value generated by any share sales (probably in about 10 years time!)
I dont think you can physically buy gold, not the type you are thinking off. Gold jewelry & stuff is different and doesn't really compare to the current price of Gold.
And if you haven't been following things over the past 20 years, check our Gordon Browns abject failure in guessing where the price of Gold might go.
Gold.co.uk appear to sell gold. This one costs £21,626 and £16.25/month to store it at Brinks (unless I'm reading it wrong!!!)
Gold prices tend to peak in times of crises, so generally speaking if you choose to buy gold, you should be waiting until the crisis is over and the price drops.
Yep...I'm talking about the day (if it ever comes!) that the markets have recovered, when share values go up and hopefully the gold price comes down - then buy gold. A sort of take my money and run approach....
That's a really interesting read. Thanks for posting.
And OK, I apologise for referring to kiddie traders! It's just I get really irked when after the market has a bad fall, a pundit will come on and say something like traders just didn't feel confident today. **** me, there have been loads of times I haven't felt confident at work but I've never wreaked havoc when I felt that!
You ask if I would be more understanding of the moves that are occurring if they happened across say a 6 month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased. The answer to that would be an undoubted yes. It might also stop share prices across the board being hammered without any rhyme or reason in some cases.
So what do you think the next few weeks hold? Lots of violent ups and downs for a couple of weeks before a final huge sell-off?
Sadly a pundits role is largely either to state the obvious or try and commentate and create a story that isn't necessarily there. It's a bit like football commentary really...
Goes without saying that there will be a lot of volatility and I fully expect more downturns. I think the market will attempt to rebound because it naturally wants to, but there will be no longevity to this rise as it isn't based on any substance. Friday FTSE trading was a great example of this, in the first half hour the index was up +5%...ended the day up 75bps. There were no fundamentals to back an increase of that size and after that reality dawned, it lost any early momentum. One thing that can't be underestimated in modern-day trading and a key factor of big price swings is the instantaneous nature of news hitting the markets and the immediate response to that. Markets sell off instantly to headlines now, there is no time delay or pause for digesting the info and trading accordingly. On Friday the news that Boris would be telling pubs/clubs/restaurants to shut hit Bloomberg around 3.30pm. This led to another legdown on the FTSE and the reason I raise this, any headline relating to the covid response (of which there will be many) will be met with an instant exaggerated response in the markets. There doesn't seem to be much positivity on the horizon to me and the full impact in the US hasn't been felt yet.
Trading markets right now is almost like trading the healthcare sector, because the way I see it, only a miracle covid curing drug being established or data proving a reduction in victims will force the markets upwards with any longevity. We are told that whilst drugs are in the testing period, it will take c.12-18 months to fully license and using Italy as a barometer, we are on an eerily similar trajectory with the number of deaths at a like for like stage. The UK death toll is almost identical to Italy's 14 days in to the virus fully hitting. A further fortnight down the line, Italy has just under 5k deaths. I imagine the UK is on for the same figure, if not more - this will undoubtedly lead to more market pain if we eclipse that figure.
As I write this, FTSE is down nearly 5% on the day. Has there been any specific new cause for this over and above what we already know? Not really directly related to the UK. That tells you everything you need to know about investing right now.
Interesting post again. Please keep giving us your thoughts.
Another question for you. Why not simply shut the markets for 3 months?
That would mean instead of the of these demoralising daily falls the market could simply see where we are in 3 months time and act accordingly. If the crisis has got worse, it could reopen markedly lower. If the crisis is easing, it could reopen higher. Or is that too simplistic?
Either way, with the crisis that is about to envelop us it seems almost absurd to be worrying about what the markets are doing.
That's a really interesting read. Thanks for posting.
And OK, I apologise for referring to kiddie traders! It's just I get really irked when after the market has a bad fall, a pundit will come on and say something like traders just didn't feel confident today. **** me, there have been loads of times I haven't felt confident at work but I've never wreaked havoc when I felt that!
You ask if I would be more understanding of the moves that are occurring if they happened across say a 6 month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased. The answer to that would be an undoubted yes. It might also stop share prices across the board being hammered without any rhyme or reason in some cases.
So what do you think the next few weeks hold? Lots of violent ups and downs for a couple of weeks before a final huge sell-off?
Sadly a pundits role is largely either to state the obvious or try and commentate and create a story that isn't necessarily there. It's a bit like football commentary really...
Goes without saying that there will be a lot of volatility and I fully expect more downturns. I think the market will attempt to rebound because it naturally wants to, but there will be no longevity to this rise as it isn't based on any substance. Friday FTSE trading was a great example of this, in the first half hour the index was up +5%...ended the day up 75bps. There were no fundamentals to back an increase of that size and after that reality dawned, it lost any early momentum. One thing that can't be underestimated in modern-day trading and a key factor of big price swings is the instantaneous nature of news hitting the markets and the immediate response to that. Markets sell off instantly to headlines now, there is no time delay or pause for digesting the info and trading accordingly. On Friday the news that Boris would be telling pubs/clubs/restaurants to shut hit Bloomberg around 3.30pm. This led to another legdown on the FTSE and the reason I raise this, any headline relating to the covid response (of which there will be many) will be met with an instant exaggerated response in the markets. There doesn't seem to be much positivity on the horizon to me and the full impact in the US hasn't been felt yet.
Trading markets right now is almost like trading the healthcare sector, because the way I see it, only a miracle covid curing drug being established or data proving a reduction in victims will force the markets upwards with any longevity. We are told that whilst drugs are in the testing period, it will take c.12-18 months to fully license and using Italy as a barometer, we are on an eerily similar trajectory with the number of deaths at a like for like stage. The UK death toll is almost identical to Italy's 14 days in to the virus fully hitting. A further fortnight down the line, Italy has just under 5k deaths. I imagine the UK is on for the same figure, if not more - this will undoubtedly lead to more market pain if we eclipse that figure.
As I write this, FTSE is down nearly 5% on the day. Has there been any specific new cause for this over and above what we already know? Not really directly related to the UK. That tells you everything you need to know about investing right now.
Interesting post again. Please keep giving us your thoughts.
Another question for you. Why not simply shut the markets for 3 months?
That would mean instead of the of these demoralising daily falls the market could simply see where we are in 3 months time and act accordingly. If the crisis has got worse, it could reopen markedly lower. If the crisis is easing, it could reopen higher. Or is that too simplistic?
Either way, with the crisis that is about to envelop us it seems almost absurd to be worrying about what the markets are doing.
I imagine becuase the people calling the shots are making a killing?
That's a really interesting read. Thanks for posting.
And OK, I apologise for referring to kiddie traders! It's just I get really irked when after the market has a bad fall, a pundit will come on and say something like traders just didn't feel confident today. **** me, there have been loads of times I haven't felt confident at work but I've never wreaked havoc when I felt that!
You ask if I would be more understanding of the moves that are occurring if they happened across say a 6 month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased. The answer to that would be an undoubted yes. It might also stop share prices across the board being hammered without any rhyme or reason in some cases.
So what do you think the next few weeks hold? Lots of violent ups and downs for a couple of weeks before a final huge sell-off?
Sadly a pundits role is largely either to state the obvious or try and commentate and create a story that isn't necessarily there. It's a bit like football commentary really...
Goes without saying that there will be a lot of volatility and I fully expect more downturns. I think the market will attempt to rebound because it naturally wants to, but there will be no longevity to this rise as it isn't based on any substance. Friday FTSE trading was a great example of this, in the first half hour the index was up +5%...ended the day up 75bps. There were no fundamentals to back an increase of that size and after that reality dawned, it lost any early momentum. One thing that can't be underestimated in modern-day trading and a key factor of big price swings is the instantaneous nature of news hitting the markets and the immediate response to that. Markets sell off instantly to headlines now, there is no time delay or pause for digesting the info and trading accordingly. On Friday the news that Boris would be telling pubs/clubs/restaurants to shut hit Bloomberg around 3.30pm. This led to another legdown on the FTSE and the reason I raise this, any headline relating to the covid response (of which there will be many) will be met with an instant exaggerated response in the markets. There doesn't seem to be much positivity on the horizon to me and the full impact in the US hasn't been felt yet.
Trading markets right now is almost like trading the healthcare sector, because the way I see it, only a miracle covid curing drug being established or data proving a reduction in victims will force the markets upwards with any longevity. We are told that whilst drugs are in the testing period, it will take c.12-18 months to fully license and using Italy as a barometer, we are on an eerily similar trajectory with the number of deaths at a like for like stage. The UK death toll is almost identical to Italy's 14 days in to the virus fully hitting. A further fortnight down the line, Italy has just under 5k deaths. I imagine the UK is on for the same figure, if not more - this will undoubtedly lead to more market pain if we eclipse that figure.
As I write this, FTSE is down nearly 5% on the day. Has there been any specific new cause for this over and above what we already know? Not really directly related to the UK. That tells you everything you need to know about investing right now.
Interesting post again. Please keep giving us your thoughts.
Another question for you. Why not simply shut the markets for 3 months?
That would mean instead of the of these demoralising daily falls the market could simply see where we are in 3 months time and act accordingly. If the crisis has got worse, it could reopen markedly lower. If the crisis is easing, it could reopen higher. Or is that too simplistic?
Either way, with the crisis that is about to envelop us it seems almost absurd to be worrying about what the markets are doing.
Some companies may no longer be with us in 3 months time
Interesting post again. Please keep giving us your thoughts.
Another question for you. Why not simply shut the markets for 3 months?
That would mean instead of the of these demoralising daily falls the market could simply see where we are in 3 months time and act accordingly. If the crisis has got worse, it could reopen markedly lower. If the crisis is easing, it could reopen higher. Or is that too simplistic?
Either way, with the crisis that is about to envelop us it seems almost absurd to be worrying about what the markets are doing.
Initially I was supportive about a temporary closure of the markets to stop the crazy volatility trading days. There has been successful previous for this, for example the NYSE shut for 4 days post 9/11 to dilute the hyteria in markets. However, I have changed my mind purely because this would not be a temporary closure. This will drag on for months and I don't think that is a viable prospect long term. The main reasons I could see against closing for 3 months.
- Nail on the head with post above, it will be like a Woodford situ and there was large scale outcry surrounding that. There are thousands of retail/individual punters out there who will want to take their money out of the markets. Some because they can't handle the heat of a falling market, but others who actually need it to pay the bills and potentially those withdrawing for pension reasons. You have to give them a platform to do this and they can't have their funds tied up
- I don't think it stops large moves happening. It allows build up of panic. I hear your argument that if the crisis is easing it can reopen higher...i dont see it playing out like that. And if it goes the opposite way with disaster still surrounding us, you will see the same size moves as those which have occurred already, but on a one day basis which still equates to the same losses
- Confidence signal. Simply put, shutting the doors on the market gives off the signal that there is no confidence in the markets and the situation is absolutely dire. People look to the economy and markets as an indicator of strength. If we have 3 or 4 positive growth days in a row, the good sentiment will start to drip back. The certainty of a market being open leads people to believe that the US/UK are good places for investing. If they are shut, all that faith goes. It's an ironic argument seeing as every trader will tell you they hate the uncertainty, yet a market being open somehow gives certainty to the public...
As an aside, FTSE trading yday was another classic day. I imagine most of the users on here will check the markets as more of an end of day figure, so it's worth telling this story to highlight the volatility right now. When I posted yday morn, FTSE was down 5%. Around 12pm the Fed released their latest plan to tackle the financial impact of covid. This led the FTSE to rally back to unchanged on the day. US futures started to indicate that the market wasnt on board with the Feds guidelines and pointed to a fall in US markets upon open. FTSE ticked backed down and went further once the US opened at 13.30 - FTSE closed down 3.8% by end of the day. This is not normal...today we are currently +3.5%.
+/- 3-5% daily index moves will be a norm until an end is in sight
If the market is open then people can make their own decisions about staying in or getting out of their investments.
There were enough complaints when Woodford suspended their funds and people couldn't get their money out.
But now people can't even make their own decisions about leaving the house let alone selling shares.
More importantly companies can no longer freely make decisions about whether and how they can trade. Individual companies would probably be suspended in normal times if they were facing the current restrictions for some reason.
The whole thing has become a farce and is breaking its own rules. Time to close it for a while?
Because atm their shares prices are artificially low & dont represent the real value of the company. Market has been oversold & now starting to level out a bit. Not saying that it wont go down again & probably will do short term, but big companies like those 2 are more than just petrol garages.
You expect the death rate to go down with a lockdown but we still have no idea of how to eradicate the virus. As soon as things open up the whole infection cycle starts again?
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Golfie knows a hundred times better than me on this sort of stuff- happy to admit that - but surely this is not the time to put a large slug of money into the market?
As I write, the FTSE has just gone through the 5000 barrier again. Take your pick at the next support level. 4500? 3500? 2750? Nobody knows. But I would hazard a guess that If London does go into absolute lockdown, there will be armegedon on the markets.
Surely there will be better opportunities to invest your money over the coming weeks?
When the markets rebound from the bottom, they usually pick up massively very quickly. Ok not to where they were, but if they say bottom out at 4000 it may only be for one day. I would fully expect a couple of large rebounds at say 10% on consecutive days. So if your money isn't immediately available it's almost impossible to pick the bottom.
FTSE100 up 9% today. Don't get me wrong I expect the markets to slide again & be all over the place for a while. But I still maintain, that at some point the markets will rebound like today and maybe for a few consecutive days & the folks waiting for the bottom, without funds ready, will miss out on the bottom by maybe 10-20%.
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Golfie knows a hundred times better than me on this sort of stuff- happy to admit that - but surely this is not the time to put a large slug of money into the market?
As I write, the FTSE has just gone through the 5000 barrier again. Take your pick at the next support level. 4500? 3500? 2750? Nobody knows. But I would hazard a guess that If London does go into absolute lockdown, there will be armegedon on the markets.
Surely there will be better opportunities to invest your money over the coming weeks?
When the markets rebound from the bottom, they usually pick up massively very quickly. Ok not to where they were, but if they say bottom out at 4000 it may only be for one day. I would fully expect a couple of large rebounds at say 10% on consecutive days. So if your money isn't immediately available it's almost impossible to pick the bottom.
FTSE100 up 9% today. Don't get me wrong I expect the markets to slide again & be all over the place for a while. But I still maintain, that at some point the markets will rebound like today and maybe for a few consecutive days & the folks waiting for the bottom, without funds ready, will miss out on the bottom by maybe 10-20%.
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Golfie knows a hundred times better than me on this sort of stuff- happy to admit that - but surely this is not the time to put a large slug of money into the market?
As I write, the FTSE has just gone through the 5000 barrier again. Take your pick at the next support level. 4500? 3500? 2750? Nobody knows. But I would hazard a guess that If London does go into absolute lockdown, there will be armegedon on the markets.
Surely there will be better opportunities to invest your money over the coming weeks?
When the markets rebound from the bottom, they usually pick up massively very quickly. Ok not to where they were, but if they say bottom out at 4000 it may only be for one day. I would fully expect a couple of large rebounds at say 10% on consecutive days. So if your money isn't immediately available it's almost impossible to pick the bottom.
FTSE100 up 9% today. Don't get me wrong I expect the markets to slide again & be all over the place for a while. But I still maintain, that at some point the markets will rebound like today and maybe for a few consecutive days & the folks waiting for the bottom, without funds ready, will miss out on the bottom by maybe 10-20%.
No-one knows where either the bottom or the top of the market is. However, the previous "top" was around 7800 and had been trading around 7500 at the start of the year. Therefore going in now with the market around the 5000-5200 mark means a discount of 30% compared to January. It's a bit like Black Friday or the Boxing Day sales. You have had your eye on an item ( say a tv) and it's currently marked down by 30%. Do you buy it now, knowing you've got a pretty good deal or wait to see if it is discounted more later, also knowing that the sale might end soon & you risk getting it at a higher price.
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Golfie knows a hundred times better than me on this sort of stuff- happy to admit that - but surely this is not the time to put a large slug of money into the market?
As I write, the FTSE has just gone through the 5000 barrier again. Take your pick at the next support level. 4500? 3500? 2750? Nobody knows. But I would hazard a guess that If London does go into absolute lockdown, there will be armegedon on the markets.
Surely there will be better opportunities to invest your money over the coming weeks?
When the markets rebound from the bottom, they usually pick up massively very quickly. Ok not to where they were, but if they say bottom out at 4000 it may only be for one day. I would fully expect a couple of large rebounds at say 10% on consecutive days. So if your money isn't immediately available it's almost impossible to pick the bottom.
FTSE100 up 9% today. Don't get me wrong I expect the markets to slide again & be all over the place for a while. But I still maintain, that at some point the markets will rebound like today and maybe for a few consecutive days & the folks waiting for the bottom, without funds ready, will miss out on the bottom by maybe 10-20%.
Will fall 11% tomorrow.
I wouldn't be surprised. But one day it won't and no one knows that date.
A little unrelated to recent posts, but as my mortgage fixed term is coming up I'm weighing up 2 year tracker vs 2 year fixed. I'm thinking tracker simply because I can't see us getting to the the point where the BoE has appetite to pop the base rate back up anytime soon, but that's a pretty uneducated view so I thought I'd see if I could get a second opinion?
You expect the death rate to go down with a lockdown but we still have no idea of how to eradicate the virus. As soon as things open up the whole infection cycle starts again?
That's the problem for me. I can't see how this will be over until a vaccine is created. So are we talking about lock down for a year or more? Things might have to change a lot to make than possible.
A little unrelated to recent posts, but as my mortgage fixed term is coming up I'm weighing up 2 year tracker vs 2 year fixed. I'm thinking tracker simply because I can't see us getting to the the point where the BoE has appetite to pop the base rate back up anytime soon, but that's a pretty uneducated view so I thought I'd see if I could get a second opinion?
At a current rate of 0.1% I would have thought a tracker was pointless as it's only going to 'track' one way.
Comments
Does it not tend to hold it's value in times of crisis? I'm not looking to make on gold.....just hold a degree of profit value generated by any share sales (probably in about 10 years time!)
And if you haven't been following things over the past 20 years, check our Gordon Browns abject failure in guessing where the price of Gold might go.
Goes without saying that there will be a lot of volatility and I fully expect more downturns. I think the market will attempt to rebound because it naturally wants to, but there will be no longevity to this rise as it isn't based on any substance. Friday FTSE trading was a great example of this, in the first half hour the index was up +5%...ended the day up 75bps. There were no fundamentals to back an increase of that size and after that reality dawned, it lost any early momentum. One thing that can't be underestimated in modern-day trading and a key factor of big price swings is the instantaneous nature of news hitting the markets and the immediate response to that. Markets sell off instantly to headlines now, there is no time delay or pause for digesting the info and trading accordingly. On Friday the news that Boris would be telling pubs/clubs/restaurants to shut hit Bloomberg around 3.30pm. This led to another legdown on the FTSE and the reason I raise this, any headline relating to the covid response (of which there will be many) will be met with an instant exaggerated response in the markets. There doesn't seem to be much positivity on the horizon to me and the full impact in the US hasn't been felt yet.
Trading markets right now is almost like trading the healthcare sector, because the way I see it, only a miracle covid curing drug being established or data proving a reduction in victims will force the markets upwards with any longevity. We are told that whilst drugs are in the testing period, it will take c.12-18 months to fully license and using Italy as a barometer, we are on an eerily similar trajectory with the number of deaths at a like for like stage. The UK death toll is almost identical to Italy's 14 days in to the virus fully hitting. A further fortnight down the line, Italy has just under 5k deaths. I imagine the UK is on for the same figure, if not more - this will undoubtedly lead to more market pain if we eclipse that figure.
As I write this, FTSE is down nearly 5% on the day. Has there been any specific new cause for this over and above what we already know? Not really directly related to the UK. That tells you everything you need to know about investing right now.
Gold prices tend to peak in times of crises, so generally speaking if you choose to buy gold, you should be waiting until the crisis is over and the price drops, rather than now when the price is peaking.
NB Historically gold gives a far poorer return than equities (shares).
I've considered gold many times and always decided it's not a good investment.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/020915/has-gold-been-good-investment-over-long-term.asp
Another question for you. Why not simply shut the markets for 3 months?
That would mean instead of the of these demoralising daily falls the market could simply see where we are in 3 months time and act accordingly. If the crisis has got worse, it could reopen markedly lower. If the crisis is easing, it could reopen higher. Or is that too simplistic?
Either way, with the crisis that is about to envelop us it seems almost absurd to be worrying about what the markets are doing.
There were enough complaints when Woodford suspended their funds and people couldn't get their money out.
- Nail on the head with post above, it will be like a Woodford situ and there was large scale outcry surrounding that. There are thousands of retail/individual punters out there who will want to take their money out of the markets. Some because they can't handle the heat of a falling market, but others who actually need it to pay the bills and potentially those withdrawing for pension reasons. You have to give them a platform to do this and they can't have their funds tied up
- I don't think it stops large moves happening. It allows build up of panic. I hear your argument that if the crisis is easing it can reopen higher...i dont see it playing out like that. And if it goes the opposite way with disaster still surrounding us, you will see the same size moves as those which have occurred already, but on a one day basis which still equates to the same losses
- Confidence signal. Simply put, shutting the doors on the market gives off the signal that there is no confidence in the markets and the situation is absolutely dire. People look to the economy and markets as an indicator of strength. If we have 3 or 4 positive growth days in a row, the good sentiment will start to drip back. The certainty of a market being open leads people to believe that the US/UK are good places for investing. If they are shut, all that faith goes. It's an ironic argument seeing as every trader will tell you they hate the uncertainty, yet a market being open somehow gives certainty to the public...
As an aside, FTSE trading yday was another classic day. I imagine most of the users on here will check the markets as more of an end of day figure, so it's worth telling this story to highlight the volatility right now. When I posted yday morn, FTSE was down 5%. Around 12pm the Fed released their latest plan to tackle the financial impact of covid. This led the FTSE to rally back to unchanged on the day. US futures started to indicate that the market wasnt on board with the Feds guidelines and pointed to a fall in US markets upon open. FTSE ticked backed down and went further once the US opened at 13.30 - FTSE closed down 3.8% by end of the day. This is not normal...today we are currently +3.5%.
+/- 3-5% daily index moves will be a norm until an end is in sight
More importantly companies can no longer freely make decisions about whether and how they can trade. Individual companies would probably be suspended in normal times if they were facing the current restrictions for some reason.
The whole thing has become a farce and is breaking its own rules. Time to close it for a while?
Shell up 13% today.
I must have missed something....?
All pretty meaningless...
Plus death rate down some more in Italy and a sense that some politicians, particularly in the US, don't have an appetite for a long shut down.
A strong break but not sure the bottom is in though ... plenty of scope for more bad news.
Don't get me wrong I expect the markets to slide again & be all over the place for a while.
But I still maintain, that at some point the markets will rebound like today and maybe for a few consecutive days & the folks waiting for the bottom, without funds ready, will miss out on the bottom by maybe 10-20%.
They are utterly shameless...