"It’s fascinating to see Cheltenham Festival’s biggest hype horse SAMCRO entered in next month’s Irish Champion Hurdle, given it’s highly unusual to pitch a novice into Grade 1 open company.
Connections must smell blood after Faugheen recently bombed out of the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown, blowing open the two-mile hurdling division in Ireland.
Though he is also entered in the longer-distance novice hurdle at that meeting, and is shortest in the betting for the middle-distance Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, Gigginstown – his owners – must fancy his chances of being effective over the minimum trip.
If they do run him in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and he wins, that’ll throw a huge spanner in the ante-post markets for both the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle in March, where he trades 16/1 and 50/1 respectively.
He wasn’t included in the Champion Hurdle entries so it’s fairly safe to presume that he would be aimed at the former – and that makes the 16/1 look huge.
This horse looks like a freak; he’s unbeaten in six starts and has shown devastating speed to win those by a huge aggregate lengths margin, and I don’t really understand the disparity in the price between his Cheltenham assignments, as he’s just 2/1 for the Ballymore.
I feel that’s sound logic for an ante-post poke at the opener in March.
"It’s fascinating to see Cheltenham Festival’s biggest hype horse SAMCRO entered in next month’s Irish Champion Hurdle, given it’s highly unusual to pitch a novice into Grade 1 open company.
Connections must smell blood after Faugheen recently bombed out of the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown, blowing open the two-mile hurdling division in Ireland.
Though he is also entered in the longer-distance novice hurdle at that meeting, and is shortest in the betting for the middle-distance Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, Gigginstown – his owners – must fancy his chances of being effective over the minimum trip.
If they do run him in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and he wins, that’ll throw a huge spanner in the ante-post markets for both the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle in March, where he trades 16/1 and 50/1 respectively.
He wasn’t included in the Champion Hurdle entries so it’s fairly safe to presume that he would be aimed at the former – and that makes the 16/1 look huge.
This horse looks like a freak; he’s unbeaten in six starts and has shown devastating speed to win those by a huge aggregate lengths margin, and I don’t really understand the disparity in the price between his Cheltenham assignments, as he’s just 2/1 for the Ballymore.
I feel that’s sound logic for an ante-post poke at the opener in March.
"It’s fascinating to see Cheltenham Festival’s biggest hype horse SAMCRO entered in next month’s Irish Champion Hurdle, given it’s highly unusual to pitch a novice into Grade 1 open company.
Connections must smell blood after Faugheen recently bombed out of the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown, blowing open the two-mile hurdling division in Ireland.
Though he is also entered in the longer-distance novice hurdle at that meeting, and is shortest in the betting for the middle-distance Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, Gigginstown – his owners – must fancy his chances of being effective over the minimum trip.
If they do run him in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and he wins, that’ll throw a huge spanner in the ante-post markets for both the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle in March, where he trades 16/1 and 50/1 respectively.
He wasn’t included in the Champion Hurdle entries so it’s fairly safe to presume that he would be aimed at the former – and that makes the 16/1 look huge.
This horse looks like a freak; he’s unbeaten in six starts and has shown devastating speed to win those by a huge aggregate lengths margin, and I don’t really understand the disparity in the price between his Cheltenham assignments, as he’s just 2/1 for the Ballymore.
I feel that’s sound logic for an ante-post poke at the opener in March.
Hmmm I’ve backed him heavily at a good price for the Ballymore - tipped him up on this thread a while back, so I hope you’re wrong.
He’s being touted as a future Gold Cup winner so I can’t see him going over the minimum trip.
A syndicate of us all have lumps on him win any race at 10s, so I'm not overly fussed! But I can totally see Joel's logic here in terms of potential value. Part of the reason why, for instance, I've got Sheff Wed to go down at 40/1 (the Meire factor) - not that it'd necessarily happen this season, but would they implode more than 1 every 40 times? Absolutely.
Whilst it has shortened with Skybet, they are N/R No Bet and Best Odds Guaranteed, unlike most bookies, so most of the horses are going to be shorter with them.
Still 14s about (Victor, Sporting) but yes they are all-in run or not.
This was straight from Willie’s mouth yesterday, not hearsay - and he describes her as his best juvenile bar none adding ‘she’s incredible’. She won by 58 lengths last time out - although not sure she beat much!
Next due out at Leopardstown on 4 February in a Grade 1 so if you are going to back her for the Triumph do it before then.
Cheers Bob, Haven't a clue about these 2 mile dashes over the floppies but have thrust my shilling into Vic's sweaty palm at 14s.
I’m the opposite, Peanuts - much prefer the speed merchants over hurdles and my strike rate, especially in Grades 1 and 2, is much better than in chases.
Might be something to do with me being a flat man, although I make an exception for Cheltenham.
Bob, Bob, Bob what can I say? You're missing the whole soap opera that is a 3.5m+ handicap chase with a large field......... and, of course, best of all .........AA bemoaning his jockey when he fails with a late finish .....a right hoot!!
Whilst it has shortened with Skybet, they are N/R No Bet and Best Odds Guaranteed, unlike most bookies, so most of the horses are going to be shorter with them.
Still 14s about (Victor, Sporting) but yes they are all-in run or not.
This was straight from Willie’s mouth yesterday, not hearsay - and he describes her as his best juvenile bar none adding ‘she’s incredible’. She won by 58 lengths last time out - although not sure she beat much!
Next due out at Leopardstown on 4 February in a Grade 1 so if you are going to back her for the Triumph do it before then.
I have backed On The Blind Side for the Ballymore, as that seems to be Nicky Henderson's preferred choice. Having watched this horse in it's last two races and been incredibly impressed by each performance, firstly for the gutsy finish at Cheltenham when he looked cooked on the home turn, and then for the seemingly effortless change of gear to put a higher grade race to bed at Sandown. That last race has produced a Gold Cup and a Grand National winner in the recent past, and I see this horse as much more likely to target the former if it takes to chasing, due to that change of gear up the Cheltenham hill. As well as this year's festival. I am looking to back this horse for next year's Sun Alliance (Henderson is already planning for him to go chasing next season), and for subsequent Gold Cups in 2020 and 2021. I have not looked to place bets so far in advance before but I have a feeling this horse could be quite special. Is there anywhere online to get odds for these races or would I have to phone to ask?
hopefully beer goggles can notch up a win on the weekend at cheltenham
Is he running? Was on the betfair forum last night and nobody seemed to know if would or not?
13/2 looks a great each-way bet if he does turn up
Shock Newbury winner Beer Goggles will have his Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle credentials tested thoroughly when he takes on Finian's Oscar and Wholestone in the galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday.
Richard Woollacott's diminutive seven-year-old caused one of the upsets of the season so far when a 40-1 winner from Unowhatimeanharry in Newbury's Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle.
But he will be much shorter odds in a race regarded as a key festival trial after bookmakers made him a top-priced 5-1 chance in early shows for the Grade 2.
hopefully beer goggles can notch up a win on the weekend at cheltenham
Is he running? Was on the betfair forum last night and nobody seemed to know if would or not?
13/2 looks a great each-way bet if he does turn up
Shock Newbury winner Beer Goggles will have his Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle credentials tested thoroughly when he takes on Finian's Oscar and Wholestone in the galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday.
Richard Woollacott's diminutive seven-year-old caused one of the upsets of the season so far when a 40-1 winner from Unowhatimeanharry in Newbury's Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle.
But he will be much shorter odds in a race regarded as a key festival trial after bookmakers made him a top-priced 5-1 chance in early shows for the Grade 2.
Thanks. But looks like this was written before the tragic news?
The BHA granted yesterday a temporary licence to Richard's wife, Kayley (who already trains the stable's Point to Pointers), yesterday and The Major was due to run today at Exeter prior to that meeting being abandoned so, I suppose, there is still every chance that Beer Goggles will run.
Will be bitter sweet if the horse wins and not with Richard as the named trainer.
I have backed On The Blind Side for the Ballymore, as that seems to be Nicky Henderson's preferred choice. Having watched this horse in it's last two races and been incredibly impressed by each performance, firstly for the gutsy finish at Cheltenham when he looked cooked on the home turn, and then for the seemingly effortless change of gear to put a higher grade race to bed at Sandown. That last race has produced a Gold Cup and a Grand National winner in the recent past, and I see this horse as much more likely to target the former if it takes to chasing, due to that change of gear up the Cheltenham hill. As well as this year's festival. I am looking to back this horse for next year's Sun Alliance (Henderson is already planning for him to go chasing next season), and for subsequent Gold Cups in 2020 and 2021. I have not looked to place bets so far in advance before but I have a feeling this horse could be quite special. Is there anywhere online to get odds for these races or would I have to phone to ask?
RE On The Blind Side. I do a lot of analysis on jumps racing, including blog (https://polzeathratings.wordpress.com/) and haven't been able to rate On The Blind Side that highly. Only got him running to marks around 138.
Basically he looked good at Sandown but on the clock it was nothing special. Sussex Ranger in the juvenile hurdle was much better on the clock and was subsequently 2nd in a Grade 1. Wasn't impressed with him at all at Cheltenham either.
In the Ballymore he looks like taking on two of the best novices in recent years. Next Destination is up there with the best of recent years on my figures, and Samcro is clear best. I've rated him higher than any novice hurdler pre-Cheltenham. I had to go back and time his last win a number of times, as I was sure I'd made an error.
So, whilst there is plenty of scope for On The Blind Side to be better than a 138 horse (I'm pretty sure he will be in the long run), he's going to have to step up a lot to take on Next Destination and Samcro in my eyes. Perfectly possible that he could, but on what he's done so far I wouldn't get carried away. If you want to look at Gold Cups in the future, you should be looking at Samcro. This is a very very special horse.
"It’s fascinating to see Cheltenham Festival’s biggest hype horse SAMCRO entered in next month’s Irish Champion Hurdle, given it’s highly unusual to pitch a novice into Grade 1 open company.
Connections must smell blood after Faugheen recently bombed out of the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown, blowing open the two-mile hurdling division in Ireland.
Though he is also entered in the longer-distance novice hurdle at that meeting, and is shortest in the betting for the middle-distance Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, Gigginstown – his owners – must fancy his chances of being effective over the minimum trip.
If they do run him in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and he wins, that’ll throw a huge spanner in the ante-post markets for both the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle in March, where he trades 16/1 and 50/1 respectively.
He wasn’t included in the Champion Hurdle entries so it’s fairly safe to presume that he would be aimed at the former – and that makes the 16/1 look huge.
This horse looks like a freak; he’s unbeaten in six starts and has shown devastating speed to win those by a huge aggregate lengths margin, and I don’t really understand the disparity in the price between his Cheltenham assignments, as he’s just 2/1 for the Ballymore.
I feel that’s sound logic for an ante-post poke at the opener in March.
The Leopardstown Festival next weekend is pretty much a series of Cheltenham trials with Grade 1s all over the place. There's an equivalent Supreme trial and a Ballymore trial - Willie is sending Samcro to the 2m4f event - that confirms it to me - he'll go for the Ballymore.
Couple of other snippets:
Laurina 12/1 each-way for the Mares Novice Hurdle. the word was that if she's entered for the Solerina at Fairyhouse then max bet for the Mares Novices. Guess what - she's running in the Solerina tomorrow. Back her for Cheltenham before the race tomorrow.
Barcardys – Stayers Hurdle 12/1 NRNB Again, big insight here, he currently runs over fences where everybody thinks he’ll stay, not so apparently, a switch back to hurdles is likely. With NRNB factored, he either runs and will be miles shorter, or money back. Beat Finian’s Oscar last year over timber.
Comments
"It’s fascinating to see Cheltenham Festival’s biggest hype horse SAMCRO entered in next month’s Irish Champion Hurdle, given it’s highly unusual to pitch a novice into Grade 1 open company.
Connections must smell blood after Faugheen recently bombed out of the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown, blowing open the two-mile hurdling division in Ireland.
Though he is also entered in the longer-distance novice hurdle at that meeting, and is shortest in the betting for the middle-distance Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, Gigginstown – his owners – must fancy his chances of being effective over the minimum trip.
If they do run him in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and he wins, that’ll throw a huge spanner in the ante-post markets for both the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle in March, where he trades 16/1 and 50/1 respectively.
He wasn’t included in the Champion Hurdle entries so it’s fairly safe to presume that he would be aimed at the former – and that makes the 16/1 look huge.
This horse looks like a freak; he’s unbeaten in six starts and has shown devastating speed to win those by a huge aggregate lengths margin, and I don’t really understand the disparity in the price between his Cheltenham assignments, as he’s just 2/1 for the Ballymore.
I feel that’s sound logic for an ante-post poke at the opener in March.
1pt ante-post win Samcro @16/1, Supreme Novices’ Hurdle"
He’s being touted as a future Gold Cup winner so I can’t see him going over the minimum trip.
You're missing the whole soap opera that is a 3.5m+ handicap chase with a large field......... and, of course, best of all .........AA bemoaning his jockey when he fails with a late finish .....a right hoot!!
The only thing missing from this race is the benny hill music
Was there a Stewards Enquiry I wonder!
As well as this year's festival. I am looking to back this horse for next year's Sun Alliance (Henderson is already planning for him to go chasing next season), and for subsequent Gold Cups in 2020 and 2021. I have not looked to place bets so far in advance before but I have a feeling this horse could be quite special. Is there anywhere online to get odds for these races or would I have to phone to ask?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/42795031
RIP.
RIP
13/2 looks a great each-way bet if he does turn up
Richard Woollacott's diminutive seven-year-old caused one of the upsets of the season so far when a 40-1 winner from Unowhatimeanharry in Newbury's Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle.
But he will be much shorter odds in a race regarded as a key festival trial after bookmakers made him a top-priced 5-1 chance in early shows for the Grade 2.
Will be bitter sweet if the horse wins and not with Richard as the named trainer.
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/press_releases/bha-investigation-reveals-wrong-horses-ran-two-races-southwell-january-14/
Basically he looked good at Sandown but on the clock it was nothing special. Sussex Ranger in the juvenile hurdle was much better on the clock and was subsequently 2nd in a Grade 1. Wasn't impressed with him at all at Cheltenham either.
In the Ballymore he looks like taking on two of the best novices in recent years. Next Destination is up there with the best of recent years on my figures, and Samcro is clear best. I've rated him higher than any novice hurdler pre-Cheltenham. I had to go back and time his last win a number of times, as I was sure I'd made an error.
So, whilst there is plenty of scope for On The Blind Side to be better than a 138 horse (I'm pretty sure he will be in the long run), he's going to have to step up a lot to take on Next Destination and Samcro in my eyes. Perfectly possible that he could, but on what he's done so far I wouldn't get carried away. If you want to look at Gold Cups in the future, you should be looking at Samcro. This is a very very special horse.
Do you live in Polzeath or hail from there ?
Couple of other snippets:
Laurina 12/1 each-way for the Mares Novice Hurdle. the word was that if she's entered for the Solerina at Fairyhouse then max bet for the Mares Novices. Guess what - she's running in the Solerina tomorrow. Back her for Cheltenham before the race tomorrow.
Barcardys – Stayers Hurdle 12/1 NRNB
Again, big insight here, he currently runs over fences where everybody thinks he’ll stay, not so apparently, a switch back to hurdles is likely. With NRNB factored, he either runs and will be miles shorter, or money back. Beat Finian’s Oscar last year over timber.