I'm not one that usually goes for hype around horses, in fact usually take them all on. But if Samcro stays sound and progresses as he should do, considering just a novice, I do think he will be the best horse Gigginstown have ever had, and will be up there with Sprinter Sacre and Kauto Star.
Been doing my figures since 2009 and what he did last time was ridiculous. Balbir Du Mathan won a fair handicap hurdle on the card over 2miles, and Samcro went faster than him throughout his race over half a mile further and seemingly in second gear eased down in the closing stages.
"It’s fascinating to see Cheltenham Festival’s biggest hype horse SAMCRO entered in next month’s Irish Champion Hurdle, given it’s highly unusual to pitch a novice into Grade 1 open company.
Connections must smell blood after Faugheen recently bombed out of the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown, blowing open the two-mile hurdling division in Ireland.
Though he is also entered in the longer-distance novice hurdle at that meeting, and is shortest in the betting for the middle-distance Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, Gigginstown – his owners – must fancy his chances of being effective over the minimum trip.
If they do run him in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and he wins, that’ll throw a huge spanner in the ante-post markets for both the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle in March, where he trades 16/1 and 50/1 respectively.
He wasn’t included in the Champion Hurdle entries so it’s fairly safe to presume that he would be aimed at the former – and that makes the 16/1 look huge.
This horse looks like a freak; he’s unbeaten in six starts and has shown devastating speed to win those by a huge aggregate lengths margin, and I don’t really understand the disparity in the price between his Cheltenham assignments, as he’s just 2/1 for the Ballymore.
I feel that’s sound logic for an ante-post poke at the opener in March.
The Leopardstown Festival next weekend is pretty much a series of Cheltenham trials with Grade 1s all over the place. There's an equivalent Supreme trial and a Ballymore trial - Willie is sending Samcro to the 2m4f event - that confirms it to me - he'll go for the Ballymore.
Couple of other snippets:
Laurina 12/1 each-way for the Mares Novice Hurdle. the word was that if she's entered for the Solerina at Fairyhouse then max bet for the Mares Novices. Guess what - she's running in the Solerina tomorrow. Back her for Cheltenham before the race tomorrow.
Barcardys – Stayers Hurdle 12/1 NRNB Again, big insight here, he currently runs over fences where everybody thinks he’ll stay, not so apparently, a switch back to hurdles is likely. With NRNB factored, he either runs and will be miles shorter, or money back. Beat Finian’s Oscar last year over timber.
I'm not one that usually goes for hype around horses, in fact usually take them all on. But if Samcro stays sound and progresses as he should do, considering just a novice, I do think he will be the best horse Gigginstown have ever had, and will be up there with Sprinter Sacre and Kauto Star.
Been doing my figures since 2009 and what he did last time was ridiculous. Balbir Du Mathan won a fair handicap hurdle on the card over 2miles, and Samcro went faster than him throughout his race over half a mile further and seemingly in second gear eased down in the closing stages.
"It’s fascinating to see Cheltenham Festival’s biggest hype horse SAMCRO entered in next month’s Irish Champion Hurdle, given it’s highly unusual to pitch a novice into Grade 1 open company.
Connections must smell blood after Faugheen recently bombed out of the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown, blowing open the two-mile hurdling division in Ireland.
Though he is also entered in the longer-distance novice hurdle at that meeting, and is shortest in the betting for the middle-distance Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, Gigginstown – his owners – must fancy his chances of being effective over the minimum trip.
If they do run him in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and he wins, that’ll throw a huge spanner in the ante-post markets for both the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle in March, where he trades 16/1 and 50/1 respectively.
He wasn’t included in the Champion Hurdle entries so it’s fairly safe to presume that he would be aimed at the former – and that makes the 16/1 look huge.
This horse looks like a freak; he’s unbeaten in six starts and has shown devastating speed to win those by a huge aggregate lengths margin, and I don’t really understand the disparity in the price between his Cheltenham assignments, as he’s just 2/1 for the Ballymore.
I feel that’s sound logic for an ante-post poke at the opener in March.
The Leopardstown Festival next weekend is pretty much a series of Cheltenham trials with Grade 1s all over the place. There's an equivalent Supreme trial and a Ballymore trial - Willie is sending Samcro to the 2m4f event - that confirms it to me - he'll go for the Ballymore.
Couple of other snippets:
Laurina 12/1 each-way for the Mares Novice Hurdle. the word was that if she's entered for the Solerina at Fairyhouse then max bet for the Mares Novices. Guess what - she's running in the Solerina tomorrow. Back her for Cheltenham before the race tomorrow.
Barcardys – Stayers Hurdle 12/1 NRNB Again, big insight here, he currently runs over fences where everybody thinks he’ll stay, not so apparently, a switch back to hurdles is likely. With NRNB factored, he either runs and will be miles shorter, or money back. Beat Finian’s Oscar last year over timber.
7 bets today. Did the singles and 5 folds & upwards.
4 winners: 6/1 15/2 5/1 9/1
2 x 2nd: 9/1 5/1
1 x 3rd: 6/1
both the 2nds beaten 3/4 length and the one in the 3:00 Cheltenham completely bungled the last and would otherwise definitely have won. (Thanks T Scudamore) Watched the 3:35 at Cheltenham screaming for the one I’d backed to get beaten and inevitably it wins 3 length.
The 5 fold alone with the one in the 3 o’clock would have paid £10k.
7 bets today. Did the singles and 5 folds & upwards.
4 winners: 6/1 15/2 5/1 9/1
2 x 2nd: 9/1 5/1
1 x 3rd: 6/1
both the 2nds beaten 3/4 length and the one in the 3:00 Cheltenham completely bungled the last and would otherwise definitely have won. (Thanks T Scudamore) Watched the 3:35 at Cheltenham screaming for the one I’d backed to get beaten and inevitably it wins 3 length.
The 5 fold alone with the one in the 3 o’clock would have paid £10k.
Won about £500. Feel absolutely sick.
That's really unlucky MLC. Hopefully the winners will come along like buses now.
7 bets today. Did the singles and 5 folds & upwards.
4 winners: 6/1 15/2 5/1 9/1
2 x 2nd: 9/1 5/1
1 x 3rd: 6/1
both the 2nds beaten 3/4 length and the one in the 3:00 Cheltenham completely bungled the last and would otherwise definitely have won. (Thanks T Scudamore) Watched the 3:35 at Cheltenham screaming for the one I’d backed to get beaten and inevitably it wins 3 length.
The 5 fold alone with the one in the 3 o’clock would have paid £10k.
Won about £500. Feel absolutely sick.
That's really unlucky MLC. Hopefully the winners will come along like buses now.
Thanks mate. All part of the game I know, but that last hurdle blunder by Black Op really did me today. Betting wise we've probably all had similar experiences, but I thought this was my day.
Sad we didn't see Beer Googles win, that would have been proper reason to shed a tear.
7 bets today. Did the singles and 5 folds & upwards.
4 winners: 6/1 15/2 5/1 9/1
2 x 2nd: 9/1 5/1
1 x 3rd: 6/1
both the 2nds beaten 3/4 length and the one in the 3:00 Cheltenham completely bungled the last and would otherwise definitely have won. (Thanks T Scudamore) Watched the 3:35 at Cheltenham screaming for the one I’d backed to get beaten and inevitably it wins 3 length.
The 5 fold alone with the one in the 3 o’clock would have paid £10k.
Won about £500. Feel absolutely sick.
That's really unlucky MLC. Hopefully the winners will come along like buses now.
Thanks mate. All part of the game I know, but that last hurdle blunder by Black Op really did me today. Betting wise we've probably all had similar experiences, but I thought this was my day.
Sad we didn't see Beer Googles win, that would have been proper reason to shed a tear.
Hey! Sorry I missed you last week. I'm not there that much these days so a bit of notice would always be helpful!
7 bets today. Did the singles and 5 folds & upwards.
4 winners: 6/1 15/2 5/1 9/1
2 x 2nd: 9/1 5/1
1 x 3rd: 6/1
both the 2nds beaten 3/4 length and the one in the 3:00 Cheltenham completely bungled the last and would otherwise definitely have won. (Thanks T Scudamore) Watched the 3:35 at Cheltenham screaming for the one I’d backed to get beaten and inevitably it wins 3 length.
The 5 fold alone with the one in the 3 o’clock would have paid £10k.
Won about £500. Feel absolutely sick.
As I always say to AA, a miss is as good as a mile...
Big double on Evan William's horses in the first two races at Hereford today
Going to have to leave that one sralan as of all the trainers I couldn't trust to land one short priced favourite, let alone two, he would be top of my list. And at about 5/2 the double, the value, to me, as flown out of the door.
I've been advised to back Faugheen for Sunday and Cheltenham.
Can't have him on my mind personally. Wasn't impressed as others were on his comeback, and duly blew up last time. Would be some effort to get him back! At 6/4 or shorter you're a braver man than me to pay to find out! 10yo now too, everything against him.
Backed Supasundae at 20/1 ew 1/5 odds first 3 earlier in the week for the race. More my sort of bet, but I am a pure each way scumbag! Hopefully race cuts up to 5 or 6 runners.
On similar thinking I've done this each way double for Cheltenham. JOHN CONSTABLE at 66/1 Champion Hurdle, and ORDINARY WORLD 50/1 Champion Chase. Both love better ground, and both races are an absolute mess in terms of markets at the moment. And you get Davy Russell riding both of them, which is a plus. If both hit the first 3, pays 155.2/1.
John Constable reasoning is this. Thrives in spring on better ground, ran nice race last time on unsuitable soft ground. Won't beat Buveur D'Air but capable of beating the rest of them. And if anything happens to Buveur D'Air you're in a good position. Best advice I ever had betting was "how can you not have an each way bet NRNB where there is an odds-on favourite". If fav comes out a chunk of the book goes, and the bookie can't rule 4 you! Don't run and you get your money back!
Ordinary World loves good ground too and ran big race to finish third in Arkle last year. De Bromhead trains, Russell rides, and with all the shite around Altior, Douvan, Yorkhill etc... it wouldn't surprise me if none of them show and we end up with worst Champion Chase in memory.
I've been advised to back Faugheen for Sunday and Cheltenham.
To take on Buveur D'Air?! Interesting. Any particular reasons?
He is smashing it at home and I have a lot of faith in my Mullins contacts. But I agree, everything that is exposed says Buveur D'Air takes some beating.
Can't understand Melon sharing favouritism with Faugheen for Sunday- this is a horse who couldn't reign in TNO and My Tent last time out, who have both been thrashed by Faugheen in the past. The machine turns up in any kind of decent condition, he routs these.
If I was a Faugheen backer, I'd be very concerned that nothing seemingly came to light last time. Quite frankly backing him at a short price on Saturday is madness whether he wins or loses.
If I was a Faugheen backer, I'd be very concerned that nothing seemingly came to light last time. Quite frankly backing him at a short price on Saturday is madness whether he wins or loses.
I've never been known for my sanity when it comes to backing horses!
He put up the best figure I've ever given a hurdler when he won this race few years back. It'd be great to see him do something similar....I just struggle to see a 10yo whose had 2 runs in two years, one of which he didn't complete doing it. Would be some training effort!
Disappointed the race hasn't cut up more tbh, but still think Supasundae is way overpriced and now looks like 8 will line up
Comments
Think the race Samcro is going for is over 2m6f. The Deloitte next weekend has changed from 2m2f to 2m to split them out a bit clearer.
Been doing my figures since 2009 and what he did last time was ridiculous. Balbir Du Mathan won a fair handicap hurdle on the card over 2miles, and Samcro went faster than him throughout his race over half a mile further and seemingly in second gear eased down in the closing stages.
4 winners:
6/1
15/2
5/1
9/1
2 x 2nd:
9/1
5/1
1 x 3rd:
6/1
both the 2nds beaten 3/4 length and the one in the 3:00 Cheltenham completely bungled the last and would otherwise definitely have won. (Thanks T Scudamore)
Watched the 3:35 at Cheltenham screaming for the one I’d backed to get beaten and inevitably it wins 3 length.
The 5 fold alone with the one in the 3 o’clock would have paid £10k.
Won about £500. Feel absolutely sick.
All part of the game I know, but that last hurdle blunder by Black Op really did me today.
Betting wise we've probably all had similar experiences, but I thought this was my day.
Sad we didn't see Beer Googles win, that would have been proper reason to shed a tear.
Sorry I missed you last week. I'm not there that much these days so a bit of notice would always be helpful!
Wish you luck nevertheless.
Accumulator (x1)
W
13:55 MAIDEN HURDLE 1m 7f 195y - Win
Distingo
2/1
W
14:10 BEGINNERS'CHASE 2m 0f 8y - Win
Report To Base
8/15
W
14:25 NOVICE'S HANDICAP CHASE 2m 0f 214y - Win
11/4
Le Coeur Net
3/1
W
14:55 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 4f 114y - Win
4/6
My Dance
8/11
Stake:
£10.00
Returns:
£317.82
Still smiling :-)
few ones of note to look at most ante post cheltenham accas would feature some of the following.
sat 3rd feb
1.10 samcro
1.40 min, yorkhill
2.20 footpad
3.30 faugheen
any tips welcomed.
Backed Supasundae at 20/1 ew 1/5 odds first 3 earlier in the week for the race. More my sort of bet, but I am a pure each way scumbag! Hopefully race cuts up to 5 or 6 runners.
On similar thinking I've done this each way double for Cheltenham. JOHN CONSTABLE at 66/1 Champion Hurdle, and ORDINARY WORLD 50/1 Champion Chase. Both love better ground, and both races are an absolute mess in terms of markets at the moment. And you get Davy Russell riding both of them, which is a plus. If both hit the first 3, pays 155.2/1.
John Constable reasoning is this. Thrives in spring on better ground, ran nice race last time on unsuitable soft ground. Won't beat Buveur D'Air but capable of beating the rest of them. And if anything happens to Buveur D'Air you're in a good position. Best advice I ever had betting was "how can you not have an each way bet NRNB where there is an odds-on favourite". If fav comes out a chunk of the book goes, and the bookie can't rule 4 you! Don't run and you get your money back!
Ordinary World loves good ground too and ran big race to finish third in Arkle last year. De Bromhead trains, Russell rides, and with all the shite around Altior, Douvan, Yorkhill etc... it wouldn't surprise me if none of them show and we end up with worst Champion Chase in memory.
Disappointed the race hasn't cut up more tbh, but still think Supasundae is way overpriced and now looks like 8 will line up