Thanks to all who commented. They requested a load of documents be sent over so guess they were just verifying it is all above board. His account has been reactivated.
Thanks to all who commented. They requested a load of documents be sent over so guess they were just verifying it is all above board. His account has been reactivated.
Excellent news. I hope that your friend continues to bet with the same level of stakes that he always has because, if he does, it will take the bookies an awful long time to get their money back!
Bet365 are by far and away the worst for restrictions. Hate to break it to anyone posting big accumulator winners but if you are getting through those sort of bets your account is a losing one
Talking of restrictions, I was just knocked back on a £3 trixie with Bet 365. They did though offer to take the bet at a maximum stake of 10p ! What a shocking outfit they are.
Bet365 are by far and away the worst for restrictions. Hate to break it to anyone posting big accumulator winners but if you are getting through those sort of bets your account is a losing one
Talking of restrictions, I was just knocked back on a £3 trixie with Bet 365. They did though offer to take the bet at a maximum stake of 10p ! What a shocking outfit they are.
Doing it that way the bookies' PR men can say, hand on heart, that they don't close successful punters' accounts!
Bet365 are by far and away the worst for restrictions. Hate to break it to anyone posting big accumulator winners but if you are getting through those sort of bets your account is a losing one
Talking of restrictions, I was just knocked back on a £3 trixie with Bet 365. They did though offer to take the bet at a maximum stake of 10p ! What a shocking outfit they are.
Yep a joke firm. I do enjoy the challenge of getting on with them though, sometimes more than winning itself. Just ripping their eyes out on some bad each way race is enough enjoyment for me!
declarations are out for Ascot tomorrow out of six races, the GRADE 2 Chase has 3 runners in it, and two other races have, 5 or 6 runners in it, bit disapponting. May be the last year I do this one it has become a bit of the norm, will probably change to the Friday of Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown next year.
@PeanutsMolloy Any fancies for the Welsh GN? I've a couple of free bets about to expire and looking for e/w value to put them on.
Certainly PBS. My e/w selections are RAZ DE MAREE at 25/1 (still good e/w value at 20s IMHO) and VICENTE at 16/1. Will explain why the topweight's carrying one of my shillings over the weekend - bit short of time now. May have a nibble at a third.
Anyone else seen Paddy Brennan’s win on Paul’s Hill at Towcester today ? Unbelievable. I watched him win another race that he shouldn’t have, at Ludlow a few weeks ago. For me, he’s still one of the best around.
Big day today. What we saying for the King George? I've gathered there's been a fair amount of rain at Kempton so Bristol de Mai looks like a very tempting shout.
I'm hoping that Thistlecrack is back to his best. Tizzard reckons that he was well short of fitness at Newbury so the current price of 8/1 might look rather big come 3.15.
Big day today. What we saying for the King George? I've gathered there's been a fair amount of rain at Kempton so Bristol de Mai looks like a very tempting shout.
Yep Bristol de Mai for me despite the drift to 9/2.
OK folks, here’s my take on tomorrow’s Welsh GN, to be run on customarily testing ground. As already noted, I have each-way interests in RAZ DE MAREE (25/1) and VICENTE (16/1) and today I’ve added MILANSBAR at 20/1 to complete my team. You may think it’s bizarre for a dyed-in-the-wool statto to back a 12 y-o, a 10 y-o and the top-weight in a race for which the most commonly cited stats favour 6~8 y-o and a light-weight. So, how come?
AGE It’s true that the statistical “sweet spot” for Age of winners in the Welsh GN over decades has been 6~8y-o. However, consider the performance of these veterans in the last 4 renewals: 2016: Raz de Maree (11 y-o, 10-07) – 2nd (2.75L) at 33/1 2015: Mountainous (11 y-o [really 10 y-o as race run in January], 10-06) – WON at 9/1 2014: Glenquest (11 y-o, 10-04) – 3rd (2.75L) at 33/1 2013: Tidal Bay (12 y-o, 11-12) – 3rd (0.75L) at 10/1 Of course, it’s too small a sample to get dogmatic about but, putting the win and near-miss stats together for the last 4 years (and adjusting ages down a year for the 2015 renewal): • Of the 79 total runners, 4 won and 6 near-missed (i.e. finished <4L of them). • Runners aged 6~9 produced 60% of those winners/near-missers from 84% of runners • Runners aged 10+ accounted for 40% of the winners/near-missers from just 15% of runners Of course, this 4-year trend could be a blip and we may now witness “mean reversion”, with all the oldies struggling in the next few Welsh GNs. But the “youth-bias” in the Welsh GN is an anomaly when set against the relative success of older horses in other gruelling tests (either by virtue of distance or going – e.g. both GN and Becher Chase at Aintree). It may be that the previous youth-bias has been more to do with horses typically taking in this race earlier in their chasing careers and being under the radar of the handicapper – thus, it’s been a function of weight carried rather than age per se. Indeed, interestingly, there were “oddities” in the weights for both recent Welsh GNs when 33/1 oldies came so close: • In both 2014 and 2016, horses with <10-09 accounted for <50% of the field (this happened only once before in 20 years) • Indeed in 2016 only 2 of the 20 runners carried <10-09 and the race saw the smallest weight-range (19lbs) for 25 years (the mode being 26lbs in that time).
WEIGHT If last year’s race was unusual weights-wise, try this year’s: • No runners <10-09 • Weight-range of 17lbs Clearly, we have no choice but to ignore the Weight stat that favours runners carrying <10-09.
But what stats can we use to whittle down the field? I’m relying on 2 strong ones, based on a sample of the 37 winners or near-missers (<4L) in Welsh GNs since 1998.
STAMINA • 29 of the 37 winners/near-missers had form at 27f+ • 7 of the 8 that didn’t have such form carried <10-09 Eliminate: Beware The Bear, Silsol, Pobbles Bay, Wild West Wind, Splash Of Ginge, Sir Mangan, O’Faolains Boy, Buckhorn Timothy
COURSE • Only 1 of the 37 had no form over fences at Chepstow or at another testing and undulating chase track (commonly Cheltenham, Exeter or Carlisle). In the cases of the 3 Irish-trained, all had form at undulating Irish chase tracks. • Only 1 had performed moderately in its only chase at Chepstow (= unplaced & >10L) Eliminate all remaining runners without form at chase tracks that are both testing and undulating and/or those with (at best) moderate form from 2+ chases at Chepstow: Chase The Spud, Bishops Road, Mysteree
That leaves me with a longish “short-list” of 9. I’m going to pass on the following: • Rock The Kasbah – strong contender and loves the course. But 74-day absence offends a strong stat (all 37 winners/near-missers had run less than 60 days prior). 7lb OR increase on his close 6th in the Whitbread on genuine Good (his only try at >25f) and not a certainty that he’ll see out the trip on Soft. • Houblon Des Obeaux – despite being 10lb lower OR than when creditable 3rd (13L) in last Welsh GN, recent runs confirm he remains inconsistent. Much better when fresh (only 18 days since last). • Ask The Weatherman – talented former pointer who acts on any ground but this is a different league and 12/1 is plenty short enough, given that his only try >27f (a win) was against 4 undistinguished rivals and on a sounder surface than he’ll get tomorrow. • Final Nudge – will love the ground and was going well when departing 4 out in last 4m Midlands National on Soft (like Mysteree he appears nicely weighted vs Chase The Spud from that race) but that is his only run >25f. Now 5lbs higher OR, at 12/1 a lot is taken on trust on a type of chase track he’s yet to experience (though has a good hurdle run to his name at Cheltenham). • Folsom Blue – now with Gordon Elliott and a serious contender. Should relish ground and trip. Runs off same OR as when BD 6 out (in contention) in the 2016 Scot Nat. However, he can spit the dummy if things don’t go his way. Again, 11/1 is short enough. • Vintage Clouds – creditable effort in last Scot Nat (7th 14L) and has form on Soft and on undulating chase track but didn’t look entirely comfortable in only attempt over Cheltenham’s fences when falling at the Festival. Otherwise very reliable (14 places in 17 races when not falling) but a strong hint of “seconditis” about him (9). 14/1 too short to appeal to me for this race.
So, my 3 each-way selections (in race card order):
VICENTE (16/1, now 18/1) – Twice strong-finishing winner of 4m Scot Nat (under 11-10 last time). 6th (27L) in last year’s Welsh GN but only previous outing that season was a disappointing run in the Hennessy (fell 2 out when beaten). He comes into the race tomorrow in much better form after an impressive pipe-opener over 3.5m on testing ground at Cheltenham (staying on strongly up the hill, failing by a Neck to reel in the winner). OR raised just 1lb for that. Carries top-weight of 11-12 tomorrow but runs off the same OR151 as last year. His fine Cheltenham run should put paid to the myth that Vicente must have spring ground. While he may love the sun on his back, his pedigree also suggests no issue with testing going (several half-brothers are winners on VSft and Heavy and his sire Dom Alco produced many high-quality Soft ground lovers).
RAZ DE MAREE (25/1, now 20/1) Stayed on strongly in last year's Welsh GN (under 10-07), just failing to reel in Native River. Just 1lb higher OR for this year's renewal, carrying 10-10 with a (talented) Conditional jockey on board. Has looked as reliable and genuine as ever in the recent Munster and Cork Nationals (travelling and jumping well up front until an uncharacteristic soft fall in the former and a typically not-stopping 2nd over 28f at Cork in November). Nice spin over hurdles for his prep. May be a 12 y-o now but no issues with age tomorrow, for the reasons given above.
MILANSBAR (20/1) Bottom of the weights with 10-09 and donning first-time cheekpieces, despite PU in last year’s Welsh GN after blundering badly at 2nd fence (11-02, OR145), this 10 y-o mud-loving, dour stayer ticks a lot of boxes. Comes into the race after an unlucky 3rd (3L but hampered 4 out) behind Wild West Wind in the Welsh GN Trial at Chepstow in November (3m heavy) – 7lbs better off with WWW tomorrow (same OR134). Both runs this season suggest he’s getting back to something like his best after a series of poor runs last season. Now runs off a much more competitive mark, 11lbs lower than when close 2nd (2L) in 2016 4m Midlands National on Soft (OR145).
The Welsh GN may be postponed until next month due to the weather.
Sadly true ............Oh well, at least the darts is back
Rescheduled for 6 Jan. Reverts to original entry stage so those who didn't confirm or declare in last 2 stages get the chance for a run if they wish. Potentially a big shame for Milansbar as he may or may not get in again. Alternatively, could be more lower-weight runners and a different complexion for the race. Hey-ho.
Sizing john dissappointing, Gigginstown 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th Ruining racing imo, bit like clowns that are surprised and sucking off pep for his escapades at Man City, what do you expect you’ve spent more than anyone else.
Just a reminder, you've got until midnight tonight if you want to void ante post bets on the Welsh GN made prior to decs (Bet365 and Coral, maybe others, offering this). Otherwise they stand for the 6 Jan.
Comments
They requested a load of documents be sent over so guess they were just verifying it is all above board.
His account has been reactivated.
What a shocking outfit they are.
Any fancies for the Welsh GN?
I've a couple of free bets about to expire and looking for e/w value to put them on.
old boy RAZ DA MAREE
& ROCK THE KASBAH
going to have a small bet on whisper for the king george
My e/w selections are RAZ DE MAREE at 25/1 (still good e/w value at 20s IMHO) and VICENTE at 16/1.
Will explain why the topweight's carrying one of my shillings over the weekend - bit short of time now.
May have a nibble at a third.
I watched him win another race that he shouldn’t have, at Ludlow a few weeks ago.
For me, he’s still one of the best around.
As already noted, I have each-way interests in RAZ DE MAREE (25/1) and VICENTE (16/1) and today I’ve added MILANSBAR at 20/1 to complete my team.
You may think it’s bizarre for a dyed-in-the-wool statto to back a 12 y-o, a 10 y-o and the top-weight in a race for which the most commonly cited stats favour 6~8 y-o and a light-weight.
So, how come?
AGE
It’s true that the statistical “sweet spot” for Age of winners in the Welsh GN over decades has been 6~8y-o.
However, consider the performance of these veterans in the last 4 renewals:
2016: Raz de Maree (11 y-o, 10-07) – 2nd (2.75L) at 33/1
2015: Mountainous (11 y-o [really 10 y-o as race run in January], 10-06) – WON at 9/1
2014: Glenquest (11 y-o, 10-04) – 3rd (2.75L) at 33/1
2013: Tidal Bay (12 y-o, 11-12) – 3rd (0.75L) at 10/1
Of course, it’s too small a sample to get dogmatic about but, putting the win and near-miss stats together for the last 4 years (and adjusting ages down a year for the 2015 renewal):
• Of the 79 total runners, 4 won and 6 near-missed (i.e. finished <4L of them).
• Runners aged 6~9 produced 60% of those winners/near-missers from 84% of runners
• Runners aged 10+ accounted for 40% of the winners/near-missers from just 15% of runners
Of course, this 4-year trend could be a blip and we may now witness “mean reversion”, with all the oldies struggling in the next few Welsh GNs. But the “youth-bias” in the Welsh GN is an anomaly when set against the relative success of older horses in other gruelling tests (either by virtue of distance or going – e.g. both GN and Becher Chase at Aintree).
It may be that the previous youth-bias has been more to do with horses typically taking in this race earlier in their chasing careers and being under the radar of the handicapper – thus, it’s been a function of weight carried rather than age per se.
Indeed, interestingly, there were “oddities” in the weights for both recent Welsh GNs when 33/1 oldies came so close:
• In both 2014 and 2016, horses with <10-09 accounted for <50% of the field (this happened only once before in 20 years)
• Indeed in 2016 only 2 of the 20 runners carried <10-09 and the race saw the smallest weight-range (19lbs) for 25 years (the mode being 26lbs in that time).
WEIGHT
If last year’s race was unusual weights-wise, try this year’s:
• No runners <10-09
• Weight-range of 17lbs
Clearly, we have no choice but to ignore the Weight stat that favours runners carrying <10-09.
But what stats can we use to whittle down the field? I’m relying on 2 strong ones, based on a sample of the 37 winners or near-missers (<4L) in Welsh GNs since 1998.
STAMINA
• 29 of the 37 winners/near-missers had form at 27f+
• 7 of the 8 that didn’t have such form carried <10-09
Eliminate:
Beware The Bear, Silsol, Pobbles Bay, Wild West Wind, Splash Of Ginge, Sir Mangan, O’Faolains Boy, Buckhorn Timothy
COURSE
• Only 1 of the 37 had no form over fences at Chepstow or at another testing and undulating chase track (commonly Cheltenham, Exeter or Carlisle). In the cases of the 3 Irish-trained, all had form at undulating Irish chase tracks.
• Only 1 had performed moderately in its only chase at Chepstow (= unplaced & >10L)
Eliminate all remaining runners without form at chase tracks that are both testing and undulating and/or those with (at best) moderate form from 2+ chases at Chepstow:
Chase The Spud, Bishops Road, Mysteree
That leaves me with a longish “short-list” of 9. I’m going to pass on the following:
• Rock The Kasbah – strong contender and loves the course. But 74-day absence offends a strong stat (all 37 winners/near-missers had run less than 60 days prior). 7lb OR increase on his close 6th in the Whitbread on genuine Good (his only try at >25f) and not a certainty that he’ll see out the trip on Soft.
• Houblon Des Obeaux – despite being 10lb lower OR than when creditable 3rd (13L) in last Welsh GN, recent runs confirm he remains inconsistent. Much better when fresh (only 18 days since last).
• Ask The Weatherman – talented former pointer who acts on any ground but this is a different league and 12/1 is plenty short enough, given that his only try >27f (a win) was against 4 undistinguished rivals and on a sounder surface than he’ll get tomorrow.
• Final Nudge – will love the ground and was going well when departing 4 out in last 4m Midlands National on Soft (like Mysteree he appears nicely weighted vs Chase The Spud from that race) but that is his only run >25f. Now 5lbs higher OR, at 12/1 a lot is taken on trust on a type of chase track he’s yet to experience (though has a good hurdle run to his name at Cheltenham).
• Folsom Blue – now with Gordon Elliott and a serious contender. Should relish ground and trip. Runs off same OR as when BD 6 out (in contention) in the 2016 Scot Nat. However, he can spit the dummy if things don’t go his way. Again, 11/1 is short enough.
• Vintage Clouds – creditable effort in last Scot Nat (7th 14L) and has form on Soft and on undulating chase track but didn’t look entirely comfortable in only attempt over Cheltenham’s fences when falling at the Festival. Otherwise very reliable (14 places in 17 races when not falling) but a strong hint of “seconditis” about him (9). 14/1 too short to appeal to me for this race.
So, my 3 each-way selections (in race card order):
VICENTE (16/1, now 18/1) – Twice strong-finishing winner of 4m Scot Nat (under 11-10 last time). 6th (27L) in last year’s Welsh GN but only previous outing that season was a disappointing run in the Hennessy (fell 2 out when beaten).
He comes into the race tomorrow in much better form after an impressive pipe-opener over 3.5m on testing ground at Cheltenham (staying on strongly up the hill, failing by a Neck to reel in the winner). OR raised just 1lb for that.
Carries top-weight of 11-12 tomorrow but runs off the same OR151 as last year.
His fine Cheltenham run should put paid to the myth that Vicente must have spring ground. While he may love the sun on his back, his pedigree also suggests no issue with testing going (several half-brothers are winners on VSft and Heavy and his sire Dom Alco produced many high-quality Soft ground lovers).
RAZ DE MAREE (25/1, now 20/1)
Stayed on strongly in last year's Welsh GN (under 10-07), just failing to reel in Native River.
Just 1lb higher OR for this year's renewal, carrying 10-10 with a (talented) Conditional jockey on board. Has looked as reliable and genuine as ever in the recent Munster and Cork Nationals (travelling and jumping well up front until an uncharacteristic soft fall in the former and a typically not-stopping 2nd over 28f at Cork in November). Nice spin over hurdles for his prep.
May be a 12 y-o now but no issues with age tomorrow, for the reasons given above.
MILANSBAR (20/1)
Bottom of the weights with 10-09 and donning first-time cheekpieces, despite PU in last year’s Welsh GN after blundering badly at 2nd fence (11-02, OR145), this 10 y-o mud-loving, dour stayer ticks a lot of boxes.
Comes into the race after an unlucky 3rd (3L but hampered 4 out) behind Wild West Wind in the Welsh GN Trial at Chepstow in November (3m heavy) – 7lbs better off with WWW tomorrow (same OR134).
Both runs this season suggest he’s getting back to something like his best after a series of poor runs last season. Now runs off a much more competitive mark, 11lbs lower than when close 2nd (2L) in 2016 4m Midlands National on Soft (OR145).
As always, caveat emptor!!
Good luck everyone.
Rescheduled for 6 Jan. Reverts to original entry stage so those who didn't confirm or declare in last 2 stages get the chance for a run if they wish.
Potentially a big shame for Milansbar as he may or may not get in again. Alternatively, could be more lower-weight runners and a different complexion for the race. Hey-ho.
Whiskey Sour hit 270 in running.
Gigginstown 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th
Ruining racing imo, bit like clowns that are surprised and sucking off pep for his escapades at Man City, what do you expect you’ve spent more than anyone else.