Didn't you have some real problems with currency transfer ealier this year? Is that a thing of the past now?
My problems were exacerbated because neither the UK nor CZ is in the eurozone. The EU has introduced SEPA which brings down the fees of cross border transfers. However, it cannot legally force banks to follow the procedures fairly.It can only advocate. This is another myth of the "all-powerful" EU. But it gives national consumer groups a tool with which to shame the banks into fair play.
Ukip will win more votes in this euro election than anyone else people are pissed off with conservatives and that ridiculous looking fool milliband
Like it or not in this election Ukip will win by a landslide
In the general election they won't even poll enough votes to effect the top two but the powder puff liberals will suffer because of them
I think the conservatives will lose votes to them in the general election. I don't think the natural liberal voter deciding he can't vote for Clegg will swap his vote to Tory or UKIP. I think Labour and The Greens will benefit most by the Liberals demise. It's the only reason Cameron has offered the promise of a referendum on Europe if he is elected on a majority. The cons are at the moment scared stiff of Farage.
As for Milliband. He's keeping schtum because he knows that by not saying anything he less likely to offend the voter. He's hoping that between Farage and Clegg he can split the Tory vote and gain Liberals. We shall see.
Next year will be the most unpredictable election ever in my view.
In the past the national swing meant that broadly voters would move fairly consistently between the party's between elections. This has meant the outcome could reasonably be predicted a year before. Now I think it is more polarised than ever. Currently it is estimated that Labour has taken much of its increased support from disillusioned Lib Dems but hardly won over any Tories. Their disillusioned supporters have defected to UKIP.
The first past the post electoral system means it is almost impossible for a party other than Labour or the Conservatives gain an overall Parliamentary majority and either of them could win this on as little as around 35% of the popular vote.
UKIP will do well on Thursday because their support is in demographics who are more likely to vote ( the over 60's) .In a small turn out ,this distorts the outcome. Next year they will find it more difficult. The Newark By Election is a Godsend to them although they appear to have picked one of their more eccentric MEP's as the Candidate. If they win that, I could maybe see them getting around half a dozen seats next year. However, they are more likely to open the door for Labour in a number of areas as over 50% of their votes come from ex 2010 Tories.
I think the Lib Dems could face melt down next year unless they ditch Clegg who is unpopular with everyone. In over 70 % of their existing seats it is Labour tactical voters who lend their support to elect a non Tory MP which get them elected . These are the very voters they have lost . In the same way as the UKIP voter will possibly let in Miliband the effect of this could actually benefit the Tories rather than Labour.
This is not to mention the other localised wild cards. Northern Ireland where the main parties do not contest the seats ,the Nationalists in Scotland and Wales ,the Greens in Brighton or Respect in areas with a high ethnic vote.
Firstly the €uro was "never on the brink of collapse". The four biggest economies within the eurozone (Germany, Spain, Italy and France) are all reasonably stable and also have challenges. They make up a very large part of the eurozone and problems in Greece, Portugal and Ireland simply led to different forms of intervention to save them the pain of dropping out of the Euro. The real problem with the euro is that it requires a rational (and possibly unified) political and economic framework... At the moment what I have seen of centre left and centre right agendas is decades behind the times. No real political philosophy and no communication at all levels of the electorate. And this is the gap which UKIP is exploiting. A proactive pro-europe agenda could look to close loopholes where a purchase someone in my family makes in my house is somehow subject to VAT in Luxembourg @ 3% rather than UK 20% rate or a Europe wide ecommerce rate of x which is used for European governance and services. Why should an American corporation be allowed to open up shop in London Paris Berlin Madrid and Milan and not pay Vat nor a fair amount of corporation tax? And UKIP are not just winning tory eurosceptic votes - they are eating into labour votes too. Ironically thanks to our political system they have gone from being the populist underdog to coming under sustained attack. Which in turn leads to debates on forums like this. With the Internet we have the opportunity to hold politicians and parties to account. They need to up their game in terms of vision and communication because none of the leading parties can count on being a major player in five to ten years time. Makes it all the more edgy and interesting over the next 12 months... I was sure we would see a lib-lab coalition next May but the landscape has become far too volatile of late to be so certain. Perhaps partly as a result of complacency by Labour and Tories who didn't feel the need to take on Farrage?
Firstly the €uro was "never on the brink of collapse". The four biggest economies within the eurozone (Germany, Spain, Italy and France) are all reasonably stable and also have challenges. They make up a very large part of the eurozone and problems in Greece, Portugal and Ireland simply led to different forms of intervention to save them the pain of dropping out of the Euro. The real problem with the euro is that it requires a rational (and possibly unified) political and economic framework... At the moment what I have seen of centre left and centre right agendas is decades behind the times. No real political philosophy and no communication at all levels of the electorate. And this is the gap which UKIP is exploiting. A proactive pro-europe agenda could look to close loopholes where a purchase someone in my family makes in my house is somehow subject to VAT in Luxembourg @ 3% rather than UK 20% rate or a Europe wide ecommerce rate of x which is used for European governance and services. Why should an American corporation be allowed to open up shop in London Paris Berlin Madrid and Milan and not pay Vat nor a fair amount of corporation tax? And UKIP are not just winning tory eurosceptic votes - they are eating into labour votes too. Ironically thanks to our political system they have gone from being the populist underdog to coming under sustained attack. Which in turn leads to debates on forums like this. With the Internet we have the opportunity to hold politicians and parties to account. They need to up their game in terms of vision and communication because none of the leading parties can count on being a major player in five to ten years time. Makes it all the more edgy and interesting over the next 12 months... I was sure we would see a lib-lab coalition next May but the landscape has become far too volatile of late to be so certain. Perhaps partly as a result of complacency by Labour and Tories who didn't feel the need to take on Farrage?
I'm not sure it was complacency or not at least for the last couple of years but more a decision to say as little as possible on the thorny and divisive subject of Europe. The Tories have always in the main been euro sceptic and it is the one topic which truly divides them. The leader of the conservatives regardless of his personal stance would always upset and alienate one half of his party. Cameron has avoided the issue as long as he could for that reason but has been forced into offering an in / out referendum to placate one side of his party whilst hiding behind the will of the people and in an effort to retain euro sceptic Tory voters from switching to UKIP.
Milliband has kept out of the debate for different reasons. Saying nothing and allowing the other parties to do his work for him.
I agree that the 2015 general election is going to be facinatiing. A lot of water to pass under the bridge yet but if it was tomorrow then my bet would be on a very very small Labour majority or perhaps being the largest party but with no majority. Even if I am wrong and the Conservatives are in that position, who the hell do either of them get into bed with this time ? Lib Dems ? Can't see it can you.
Ukip will win more votes in this euro election than anyone else people are pissed off with conservatives and that ridiculous looking fool milliband
Like it or not in this election Ukip will win by a landslide
In the general election they won't even poll enough votes to effect the top two but the powder puff liberals will suffer because of them
I think the conservatives will lose votes to them in the general election. I don't think the natural liberal voter deciding he can't vote for Clegg will swap his vote to Tory or UKIP. I think Labour and The Greens will benefit most by the Liberals demise. It's the only reason Cameron has offered the promise of a referendum on Europe if he is elected on a majority. The cons are at the moment scared stiff of Farage.
As for Milliband. He's keeping schtum because he knows that by not saying anything he less likely to offend the voter. He's hoping that between Farage and Clegg he can split the Tory vote and gain Liberals. We shall see.
Next year will be the most unpredictable election ever in my view.
In the past the national swing meant that broadly voters would move fairly consistently between the party's between elections. This has meant the outcome could reasonably be predicted a year before. Now I think it is more polarised than ever. Currently it is estimated that Labour has taken much of its increased support from disillusioned Lib Dems but hardly won over any Tories. Their disillusioned supporters have defected to UKIP.
The first past the post electoral system means it is almost impossible for a party other than Labour or the Conservatives gain an overall Parliamentary majority and either of them could win this on as little as around 35% of the popular vote.
UKIP will do well on Thursday because their support is in demographics who are more likely to vote ( the over 60's) .In a small turn out ,this distorts the outcome. Next year they will find it more difficult. The Newark By Election is a Godsend to them although they appear to have picked one of their more eccentric MEP's as the Candidate. If they win that, I could maybe see them getting around half a dozen seats next year. However, they are more likely to open the door for Labour in a number of areas as over 50% of their votes come from ex 2010 Tories.
I think the Lib Dems could face melt down next year unless they ditch Clegg who is unpopular with everyone. In over 70 % of their existing seats it is Labour tactical voters who lend their support to elect a non Tory MP which get them elected . These are the very voters they have lost . In the same way as the UKIP voter will possibly let in Miliband the effect of this could actually benefit the Tories rather than Labour.
This is not to mention the other localised wild cards. Northern Ireland where the main parties do not contest the seats ,the Nationalists in Scotland and Wales ,the Greens in Brighton or Respect in areas with a high ethnic vote.
I think this is an excellent assessment Richard. It is the most difficult election to call.
What we are seeing is hard to get at the underlying trends. I agree with much of what you say. Here is my take:
1. Labour should be storming it but they have a very poor "policy wonk" as a leader. They are not reaching out beyond there core vote, other than to former Lib Dem voters - the effect of which has already been felt. They are also haemorrhaging support to UKIP - at least in popular opinion as all the foreigner bashing/anti European stuff plays well to a section of working class voters who traditionally vote Labour. What we don't know is if this is temporary or more permanent. All this is good news for the Tories in my view.
2. The Lib Dems are clearly going to take a shoeing. One thing that is lost by opinion polls is the local factors that are at work. Many Lib Dem MP's are embedded in constituencies where they are also very strong on the ground. So seats like some in the west and North may not fall. They will certainly lose some - I predict around a third to a half. I also predict that Clegg will lose his seat. The only card the LDs can play is the "what a great job we have done in the coalition" and that is to some extent negated by the "its a Tory Govt" line. What I find really troubling is the artifice they are deploying to try and skewer Gove and others and try to create a feeling that all the wicked stuff was done by the Tories and all good stuff was done by the Lib Dems. It won't wash.
3. The Tories will benefit most from the economic upturn. They will take credit for all the tax threshold rises, despite saying we couldn't afford them. In my view most of the voters they are current;y losing to UKIP, will come back to them.
4. UKIP. I believe they will poll higher than in any previous general election but I don't believe they will damage the Tories as much as many predict. Indeed I think they will damage Labour the most.
So if we look at the opinion polls as they currently stand, roughly T 32%, Lab 31%, UKIP 15% LD's 13% my view is, unless things turn for Labour, the Tory share will move up a bit to around 35%. Labour will flat line at around 31%, UKIP will drop to under 10% and the LD's will finish at around 15%
My conclusions are that Labour should dump Miliband now - he will not be the next PM and the LDs should dump Clegg. Neither will so we are in for an interesting time. My gut feeling is that the Tories still wont quite have enough for an outright victory. This time. I think, they will go it alone/go back after a year a seek a fresh mandate. That's when the LDs may be wiped out or down to single figures.
Ukip will win more votes in this euro election than anyone else people are pissed off with conservatives and that ridiculous looking fool milliband
Like it or not in this election Ukip will win by a landslide
In the general election they won't even poll enough votes to effect the top two but the powder puff liberals will suffer because of them
I think the conservatives will lose votes to them in the general election. I don't think the natural liberal voter deciding he can't vote for Clegg will swap his vote to Tory or UKIP. I think Labour and The Greens will benefit most by the Liberals demise. It's the only reason Cameron has offered the promise of a referendum on Europe if he is elected on a majority. The cons are at the moment scared stiff of Farage.
As for Milliband. He's keeping schtum because he knows that by not saying anything he less likely to offend the voter. He's hoping that between Farage and Clegg he can split the Tory vote and gain Liberals. We shall see.
Next year will be the most unpredictable election ever in my view.
In the past the national swing meant that broadly voters would move fairly consistently between the party's between elections. This has meant the outcome could reasonably be predicted a year before. Now I think it is more polarised than ever. Currently it is estimated that Labour has taken much of its increased support from disillusioned Lib Dems but hardly won over any Tories. Their disillusioned supporters have defected to UKIP.
The first past the post electoral system means it is almost impossible for a party other than Labour or the Conservatives gain an overall Parliamentary majority and either of them could win this on as little as around 35% of the popular vote.
UKIP will do well on Thursday because their support is in demographics who are more likely to vote ( the over 60's) .In a small turn out ,this distorts the outcome. Next year they will find it more difficult. The Newark By Election is a Godsend to them although they appear to have picked one of their more eccentric MEP's as the Candidate. If they win that, I could maybe see them getting around half a dozen seats next year. However, they are more likely to open the door for Labour in a number of areas as over 50% of their votes come from ex 2010 Tories.
I think the Lib Dems could face melt down next year unless they ditch Clegg who is unpopular with everyone. In over 70 % of their existing seats it is Labour tactical voters who lend their support to elect a non Tory MP which get them elected . These are the very voters they have lost . In the same way as the UKIP voter will possibly let in Miliband the effect of this could actually benefit the Tories rather than Labour.
This is not to mention the other localised wild cards. Northern Ireland where the main parties do not contest the seats ,the Nationalists in Scotland and Wales ,the Greens in Brighton or Respect in areas with a high ethnic vote.
3. The Tories will benefit most from the economic upturn. They will take credit for all the tax threshold rises, despite saying we couldn't afford them. In my view most of the voters they are current;y losing to UKIP, will come back to them.
There is a debate to be had about the so called economic upturn. House prices are unsustainable in relation to incomes, those who already own may 'feel' rich, but not if they want to move, those renting can't really afford to buy, especially if they're in a sector like teaching which has had a pay freeze for several years. In addition prices such as energy have risen, and the new generation of students are being saddled with astonishing levels of debt. Do people really feel the effects of the so called upturn? Or is it a 'give away just before an election' administration, where just enough of the voting demographic feel well off enough to return the Tories? With desperate unpaid internships, and zero hours contracts still around, and massive spending/benefit cuts to come, the economic upturn may be felt by some, but not felt by many, it all feels like a gamble the present administration is taking to scrape enough 'economic' votes to get re-elected.
Ukip will win more votes in this euro election than anyone else people are pissed off with conservatives and that ridiculous looking fool milliband
Like it or not in this election Ukip will win by a landslide
In the general election they won't even poll enough votes to effect the top two but the powder puff liberals will suffer because of them
I think the conservatives will lose votes to them in the general election. I don't think the natural liberal voter deciding he can't vote for Clegg will swap his vote to Tory or UKIP. I think Labour and The Greens will benefit most by the Liberals demise. It's the only reason Cameron has offered the promise of a referendum on Europe if he is elected on a majority. The cons are at the moment scared stiff of Farage.
As for Milliband. He's keeping schtum because he knows that by not saying anything he less likely to offend the voter. He's hoping that between Farage and Clegg he can split the Tory vote and gain Liberals. We shall see.
Next year will be the most unpredictable election ever in my view.
In the past the national swing meant that broadly voters would move fairly consistently between the party's between elections. This has meant the outcome could reasonably be predicted a year before. Now I think it is more polarised than ever. Currently it is estimated that Labour has taken much of its increased support from disillusioned Lib Dems but hardly won over any Tories. Their disillusioned supporters have defected to UKIP.
The first past the post electoral system means it is almost impossible for a party other than Labour or the Conservatives gain an overall Parliamentary majority and either of them could win this on as little as around 35% of the popular vote.
UKIP will do well on Thursday because their support is in demographics who are more likely to vote ( the over 60's) .In a small turn out ,this distorts the outcome. Next year they will find it more difficult. The Newark By Election is a Godsend to them although they appear to have picked one of their more eccentric MEP's as the Candidate. If they win that, I could maybe see them getting around half a dozen seats next year. However, they are more likely to open the door for Labour in a number of areas as over 50% of their votes come from ex 2010 Tories.
I think the Lib Dems could face melt down next year unless they ditch Clegg who is unpopular with everyone. In over 70 % of their existing seats it is Labour tactical voters who lend their support to elect a non Tory MP which get them elected . These are the very voters they have lost . In the same way as the UKIP voter will possibly let in Miliband the effect of this could actually benefit the Tories rather than Labour.
This is not to mention the other localised wild cards. Northern Ireland where the main parties do not contest the seats ,the Nationalists in Scotland and Wales ,the Greens in Brighton or Respect in areas with a high ethnic vote.
I think this is an excellent assessment Richard. It is the most difficult election to call.
What we are seeing is hard to get at the underlying trends. I agree with much of what you say. Here is my take:
1. Labour should be storming it but they have a very poor "policy wonk" as a leader. They are not reaching out beyond there core vote, other than to former Lib Dem voters - the effect of which has already been felt. They are also haemorrhaging support to UKIP - at least in popular opinion as all the foreigner bashing/anti European stuff plays well to a section of working class voters who traditionally vote Labour. What we don't know is if this is temporary or more permanent. All this is good news for the Tories in my view.
2. The Lib Dems are clearly going to take a shoeing. One thing that is lost by opinion polls is the local factors that are at work. Many Lib Dem MP's are embedded in constituencies where they are also very strong on the ground. So seats like some in the west and North may not fall. They will certainly lose some - I predict around a third to a half. I also predict that Clegg will lose his seat. The only card the LDs can play is the "what a great job we have done in the coalition" and that is to some extent negated by the "its a Tory Govt" line. What I find really troubling is the artifice they are deploying to try and skewer Gove and others and try to create a feeling that all the wicked stuff was done by the Tories and all good stuff was done by the Lib Dems. It won't wash.
3. The Tories will benefit most from the economic upturn. They will take credit for all the tax threshold rises, despite saying we couldn't afford them. In my view most of the voters they are current;y losing to UKIP, will come back to them.
4. UKIP. I believe they will poll higher than in any previous general election but I don't believe they will damage the Tories as much as many predict. Indeed I think they will damage Labour the most.
So if we look at the opinion polls as they currently stand, roughly T 32%, Lab 31%, UKIP 15% LD's 13% my view is, unless things turn for Labour, the Tory share will move up a bit to around 35%. Labour will flat line at around 31%, UKIP will drop to under 10% and the LD's will finish at around 15%
My conclusions are that Labour should dump Miliband now - he will not be the next PM and the LDs should dump Clegg. Neither will so we are in for an interesting time. My gut feeling is that the Tories still wont quite have enough for an outright victory. This time. I think, they will go it alone/go back after a year a seek a fresh mandate. That's when the LDs may be wiped out or down to single figures.
Whilst I can't see Labour ditching Miliband , I could potentially see Clegg being axed especially when Thursday's results go badly and that could be a game changer.
Eastleigh showed the LD's have good organisation in some of their seats and with a more left wing leaning leader who could put some distance from Clegg and the coalition then possibly they could retain around 20/30 seats ( down from 57) which could be enough for holding the balance of power again.
My gut feel is it will be a hung parliament. I am not sure who will be the largest Party.
I know Farage and his family... and it's very interesting to watch how the establishment have tried to attack him personally and his friends around him.
I am not a UKIP supporter , but there is no such thing as 'democracy' in my eyes it's very establishment run at a national level.
There is just too much to lose for the establishment.
Ukip will win more votes in this euro election than anyone else people are pissed off with conservatives and that ridiculous looking fool milliband
Like it or not in this election Ukip will win by a landslide
In the general election they won't even poll enough votes to effect the top two but the powder puff liberals will suffer because of them
I think the conservatives will lose votes to them in the general election. I don't think the natural liberal voter deciding he can't vote for Clegg will swap his vote to Tory or UKIP. I think Labour and The Greens will benefit most by the Liberals demise. It's the only reason Cameron has offered the promise of a referendum on Europe if he is elected on a majority. The cons are at the moment scared stiff of Farage.
As for Milliband. He's keeping schtum because he knows that by not saying anything he less likely to offend the voter. He's hoping that between Farage and Clegg he can split the Tory vote and gain Liberals. We shall see.
Next year will be the most unpredictable election ever in my view.
In the past the national swing meant that broadly voters would move fairly consistently between the party's between elections. This has meant the outcome could reasonably be predicted a year before. Now I think it is more polarised than ever. Currently it is estimated that Labour has taken much of its increased support from disillusioned Lib Dems but hardly won over any Tories. Their disillusioned supporters have defected to UKIP.
The first past the post electoral system means it is almost impossible for a party other than Labour or the Conservatives gain an overall Parliamentary majority and either of them could win this on as little as around 35% of the popular vote.
UKIP will do well on Thursday because their support is in demographics who are more likely to vote ( the over 60's) .In a small turn out ,this distorts the outcome. Next year they will find it more difficult. The Newark By Election is a Godsend to them although they appear to have picked one of their more eccentric MEP's as the Candidate. If they win that, I could maybe see them getting around half a dozen seats next year. However, they are more likely to open the door for Labour in a number of areas as over 50% of their votes come from ex 2010 Tories.
I think the Lib Dems could face melt down next year unless they ditch Clegg who is unpopular with everyone. In over 70 % of their existing seats it is Labour tactical voters who lend their support to elect a non Tory MP which get them elected . These are the very voters they have lost . In the same way as the UKIP voter will possibly let in Miliband the effect of this could actually benefit the Tories rather than Labour.
This is not to mention the other localised wild cards. Northern Ireland where the main parties do not contest the seats ,the Nationalists in Scotland and Wales ,the Greens in Brighton or Respect in areas with a high ethnic vote.
I think this is an excellent assessment Richard. It is the most difficult election to call.
What we are seeing is hard to get at the underlying trends. I agree with much of what you say. Here is my take:
1. Labour should be storming it but they have a very poor "policy wonk" as a leader. They are not reaching out beyond there core vote, other than to former Lib Dem voters - the effect of which has already been felt. They are also haemorrhaging support to UKIP - at least in popular opinion as all the foreigner bashing/anti European stuff plays well to a section of working class voters who traditionally vote Labour. What we don't know is if this is temporary or more permanent. All this is good news for the Tories in my view.
2. The Lib Dems are clearly going to take a shoeing. One thing that is lost by opinion polls is the local factors that are at work. Many Lib Dem MP's are embedded in constituencies where they are also very strong on the ground. So seats like some in the west and North may not fall. They will certainly lose some - I predict around a third to a half. I also predict that Clegg will lose his seat. The only card the LDs can play is the "what a great job we have done in the coalition" and that is to some extent negated by the "its a Tory Govt" line. What I find really troubling is the artifice they are deploying to try and skewer Gove and others and try to create a feeling that all the wicked stuff was done by the Tories and all good stuff was done by the Lib Dems. It won't wash.
3. The Tories will benefit most from the economic upturn. They will take credit for all the tax threshold rises, despite saying we couldn't afford them. In my view most of the voters they are current;y losing to UKIP, will come back to them.
4. UKIP. I believe they will poll higher than in any previous general election but I don't believe they will damage the Tories as much as many predict. Indeed I think they will damage Labour the most.
So if we look at the opinion polls as they currently stand, roughly T 32%, Lab 31%, UKIP 15% LD's 13% my view is, unless things turn for Labour, the Tory share will move up a bit to around 35%. Labour will flat line at around 31%, UKIP will drop to under 10% and the LD's will finish at around 15%
My conclusions are that Labour should dump Miliband now - he will not be the next PM and the LDs should dump Clegg. Neither will so we are in for an interesting time. My gut feeling is that the Tories still wont quite have enough for an outright victory. This time. I think, they will go it alone/go back after a year a seek a fresh mandate. That's when the LDs may be wiped out or down to single figures.
Whilst I can't see Labour ditching Miliband , I could potentially see Clegg being axed especially when Thursday's results go badly and that could be a game changer.
Eastleigh showed the LD's have good organisation in some of their seats and with a more left wing leaning leader who could put some distance from Clegg and the coalition then possibly they could retain around 20/30 seats ( down from 57) which could be enough for holding the balance of power again.
My gut feel is it will be a hung parliament. I am not sure who will be the largest Party.
It is generally believed that Labour need 35% to win an overall majority. The Tories need more. However if Scotland leaves the UK, thats an even bigger hurdle for Labour.
It's always hard to predict if the Leaders personal unpopularity will be a clinching factor, after all we don't have a presidential system.
My gut feeling is that the biggest problem for Labour is that they have not carved out any real territory of their own other than that which energises their base, particularly their northern one. For them normally to win, they need to reach those voters outside this core - just as Blair did. I believe they were hoping that UKIP would erode the Tory base and with the Lib Dem voters who have switched back, that would ease them in at around 35%. What is happening at the moment is that UKIP have eroded their vote - hence they are stuck in the low 30s.
So if I had to put money on the largest party, it would be Tories.
I know Farage and his family... and it's very interesting to watch how the establishment have tried to attack him personally and his friends around him.
I am not a UKIP supporter , but there is no such thing as 'democracy' in my eyes it's very establishment run at a national level.
There is just too much to lose for the establishment.
Personal attacks - although regrettable - are something that anyone wanting to play a senior role in national politics has to put up with.
Successive Labour leaders from Foot to Milliband have been slaughtered by the Tory press, often in very nasty circumstances and the Tories have to put up with it as well although its generally not quite as bad because there are only a couple of left-centre papers.
You are correct in saying though that there is - without question - a political class that actively despises Farage because he does not come from their world and because he really does not need them.
If you look under the bonnet - and nothing highlighted this quite as much as the 'Hacking' scandal which showed the nexus between News Corporation and the Conservative Party and the Police - you will see that the key players that run the joint politically (both Conservative and 'New Labour') and via the media are all very much in the same social set in London.
Just keep an eye out for next time some media wanker gets married and check out who's there, its always a nice little jolly-up where the likes of Boris Johnson and Peter Mandelson will all guzzle Dom Perignon and Caviar together because in reality they come from exactly the same Oxbridge elite.
I cannot stand Farage or his views but if he puts a sweat on these people then he's at least worth something.
I know Farage and his family... and it's very interesting to watch how the establishment have tried to attack him personally and his friends around him.
I am not a UKIP supporter , but there is no such thing as 'democracy' in my eyes it's very establishment run at a national level.
There is just too much to lose for the establishment.
Not quite sure it's correct that UKIP are being singled out. Remember Ed Miliband's deceased father being insulted by the Daily Mail to score political points against Ed? 'The man who hated Britain'.
Can't say I've read anything at that level aimed at Farage. Usually its moronic things said by members of his party being reported.
I have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Still waiting for a leader to convince me.
On Farage, I know all politicians are in the spotlight. But Question Time is amusing. That turns into the "Panel v Farage". It's funny as it clearly shows how much Cons & Lab are wary of them. Again, I'm not a UKIP voter, not convinced by some of their policies, but at least Farage says it as it is, and avoids a question by beating around the bush or spouting statistics.
Regularly called a racist old farage that's a pretty strong attack on his person
Didnt millibands old man actually say he hated Britain
Can't say I've ever heard Farage himself called a racist (not saying it hasn't ever happened), more that various party members have racist views or make racist comments. The closest I've seen to calling Farage a racist is in response to the likes of his views on living next door to Romanians.
Yes, Ralph Miliband said he hated Britain in his diary when he was 16, before he served in the Royal Navy, and happily lived in and contributed to the UK for the next 54 years. I don't see the relevance of his father's teenage diary to Ed Miliband.
I know Farage and his family... and it's very interesting to watch how the establishment have tried to attack him personally and his friends around him.
I am not a UKIP supporter , but there is no such thing as 'democracy' in my eyes it's very establishment run at a national level.
There is just too much to lose for the establishment.
So did he regularly attend Palace games, or not, any inside track on that? Was he one of those wankers that hired a bus to travel round the Croydon wasteland before their "away" game with us at Selhurst? I would still have more respect for him if the answer was "yes".
I see The Sun has come out against UKIP and Farage now - that's very significant because his views on Europe would be very close to KRM's.
Bottom line though is that Murdoch put Cameron in Downing Street and he wants to keep him there - so Nigel better buckle up because once KRM gets on the can he just never stops shitting.
Can you vote on Thursday and basically tick an 'abstain' box? I want to exercise my right to vote but I don't want to vote for anyone.
Interestingly walking to work in Dartford today I saw that someone had taken a tin of paint to a UKIP ad board.
You can spoil your paper.
Thanks. Actually having read up on the Green Party's manifesto I'll go for them. They talk about animal rights so I'm sold.
I've just spent a fair bit of time reading the lengthy posts on this and the previous page. I enjoyed it and it was very informative, good work everyone.
Comments
I saw one poster on my way to and from Edinburgh and all that said was we are better off together
I would've though that the two parties would've been at their peak of battle by now
In the past the national swing meant that broadly voters would move fairly consistently between the party's between elections. This has meant the outcome could reasonably be predicted a year before. Now I think it is more polarised than ever. Currently it is estimated that Labour has taken much of its increased support from disillusioned Lib Dems but hardly won over any Tories. Their disillusioned supporters have defected to UKIP.
The first past the post electoral system means it is almost impossible for a party other than Labour or the Conservatives gain an overall Parliamentary majority and either of them could win this on as little as around 35% of the popular vote.
UKIP will do well on Thursday because their support is in demographics who are more likely to vote ( the over 60's) .In a small turn out ,this distorts the outcome. Next year they will find it more difficult. The Newark By Election is a Godsend to them although they appear to have picked one of their more eccentric MEP's as the Candidate. If they win that, I could maybe see them getting around half a dozen seats next year. However, they are more likely to open the door for Labour in a number of areas as over 50% of their votes come from ex 2010 Tories.
I think the Lib Dems could face melt down next year unless they ditch Clegg who is unpopular with everyone. In over 70 % of their existing seats it is Labour tactical voters who lend their support to elect a non Tory MP which get them elected . These are the very voters they have lost . In the same way as the UKIP voter will possibly let in Miliband the effect of this could actually benefit the Tories rather than Labour.
This is not to mention the other localised wild cards. Northern Ireland where the main parties do not contest the seats ,the Nationalists in Scotland and Wales ,the Greens in Brighton or Respect in areas with a high ethnic vote.
He's got my vote all day long.
The real problem with the euro is that it requires a rational (and possibly unified) political and economic framework... At the moment what I have seen of centre left and centre right agendas is decades behind the times. No real political philosophy and no communication at all levels of the electorate. And this is the gap which UKIP is exploiting.
A proactive pro-europe agenda could look to close loopholes where a purchase someone in my family makes in my house is somehow subject to VAT in Luxembourg @ 3% rather than UK 20% rate or a Europe wide ecommerce rate of x which is used for European governance and services.
Why should an American corporation be allowed to open up shop in London Paris Berlin Madrid and Milan and not pay Vat nor a fair amount of corporation tax?
And UKIP are not just winning tory eurosceptic votes - they are eating into labour votes too. Ironically thanks to our political system they have gone from being the populist underdog to coming under sustained attack.
Which in turn leads to debates on forums like this. With the Internet we have the opportunity to hold politicians and parties to account.
They need to up their game in terms of vision and communication because none of the leading parties can count on being a major player in five to ten years time. Makes it all the more edgy and interesting over the next 12 months... I was sure we would see a lib-lab coalition next May but the landscape has become far too volatile of late to be so certain. Perhaps partly as a result of complacency by Labour and Tories who didn't feel the need to take on Farrage?
Milliband has kept out of the debate for different reasons. Saying nothing and allowing the other parties to do his work for him.
I agree that the 2015 general election is going to be facinatiing. A lot of water to pass under the bridge yet but if it was tomorrow then my bet would be on a very very small Labour majority or perhaps being the largest party but with no majority. Even if I am wrong and the Conservatives are in that position, who the hell do either of them get into bed with this time ? Lib Dems ? Can't see it can you.
What we are seeing is hard to get at the underlying trends. I agree with much of what you say. Here is my take:
1. Labour should be storming it but they have a very poor "policy wonk" as a leader. They are not reaching out beyond there core vote, other than to former Lib Dem voters - the effect of which has already been felt. They are also haemorrhaging support to UKIP - at least in popular opinion as all the foreigner bashing/anti European stuff plays well to a section of working class voters who traditionally vote Labour. What we don't know is if this is temporary or more permanent. All this is good news for the Tories in my view.
2. The Lib Dems are clearly going to take a shoeing. One thing that is lost by opinion polls is the local factors that are at work. Many Lib Dem MP's are embedded in constituencies where they are also very strong on the ground. So seats like some in the west and North may not fall. They will certainly lose some - I predict around a third to a half. I also predict that Clegg will lose his seat. The only card the LDs can play is the "what a great job we have done in the coalition" and that is to some extent negated by the "its a Tory Govt" line. What I find really troubling is the artifice they are deploying to try and skewer Gove and others and try to create a feeling that all the wicked stuff was done by the Tories and all good stuff was done by the Lib Dems. It won't wash.
3. The Tories will benefit most from the economic upturn. They will take credit for all the tax threshold rises, despite saying we couldn't afford them. In my view most of the voters they are current;y losing to UKIP, will come back to them.
4. UKIP. I believe they will poll higher than in any previous general election but I don't believe they will damage the Tories as much as many predict. Indeed I think they will damage Labour the most.
So if we look at the opinion polls as they currently stand, roughly T 32%, Lab 31%, UKIP 15% LD's 13% my view is, unless things turn for Labour, the Tory share will move up a bit to around 35%. Labour will flat line at around 31%, UKIP will drop to under 10% and the LD's will finish at around 15%
My conclusions are that Labour should dump Miliband now - he will not be the next PM and the LDs should dump Clegg. Neither will so we are in for an interesting time. My gut feeling is that the Tories still wont quite have enough for an outright victory. This time. I think, they will go it alone/go back after a year a seek a fresh mandate. That's when the LDs may be wiped out or down to single figures.
There is a debate to be had about the so called economic upturn. House prices are unsustainable in relation to incomes, those who already own may 'feel' rich, but not if they want to move, those renting can't really afford to buy, especially if they're in a sector like teaching which has had a pay freeze for several years. In addition prices such as energy have risen, and the new generation of students are being saddled with astonishing levels of debt. Do people really feel the effects of the so called upturn? Or is it a 'give away just before an election' administration, where just enough of the voting demographic feel well off enough to return the Tories? With desperate unpaid internships, and zero hours contracts still around, and massive spending/benefit cuts to come, the economic upturn may be felt by some, but not felt by many, it all feels like a gamble the present administration is taking to scrape enough 'economic' votes to get re-elected.
Eastleigh showed the LD's have good organisation in some of their seats and with a more left wing leaning leader who could put some distance from Clegg and the coalition then possibly they could retain around 20/30 seats ( down from 57) which could be enough for holding the balance of power again.
My gut feel is it will be a hung parliament. I am not sure who will be the largest Party.
The guy just doesn't seem to be a credible leader
Cameron has his faults but as a leader of the party you can understand why
But can you imagine ed milliband as pm
Jesus Christ Putin wouldn't think twice before invading
I am not a UKIP supporter , but there is no such thing as 'democracy' in my eyes it's very establishment run at a national level.
There is just too much to lose for the establishment.
It's always hard to predict if the Leaders personal unpopularity will be a clinching factor, after all we don't have a presidential system.
My gut feeling is that the biggest problem for Labour is that they have not carved out any real territory of their own other than that which energises their base, particularly their northern one. For them normally to win, they need to reach those voters outside this core - just as Blair did. I believe they were hoping that UKIP would erode the Tory base and with the Lib Dem voters who have switched back, that would ease them in at around 35%. What is happening at the moment is that UKIP have eroded their vote - hence they are stuck in the low 30s.
So if I had to put money on the largest party, it would be Tories.
I don't think the LDs will dump Clegg.
Successive Labour leaders from Foot to Milliband have been slaughtered by the Tory press, often in very nasty circumstances and the Tories have to put up with it as well although its generally not quite as bad because there are only a couple of left-centre papers.
You are correct in saying though that there is - without question - a political class that actively despises Farage because he does not come from their world and because he really does not need them.
If you look under the bonnet - and nothing highlighted this quite as much as the 'Hacking' scandal which showed the nexus between News Corporation and the Conservative Party and the Police - you will see that the key players that run the joint politically (both Conservative and 'New Labour') and via the media are all very much in the same social set in London.
Just keep an eye out for next time some media wanker gets married and check out who's there, its always a nice little jolly-up where the likes of Boris Johnson and Peter Mandelson will all guzzle Dom Perignon and Caviar together because in reality they come from exactly the same Oxbridge elite.
I cannot stand Farage or his views but if he puts a sweat on these people then he's at least worth something.
Can't say I've read anything at that level aimed at Farage. Usually its moronic things said by members of his party being reported.
Didnt millibands old man actually say he hated Britain
On Farage, I know all politicians are in the spotlight. But Question Time is amusing. That turns into the "Panel v Farage". It's funny as it clearly shows how much Cons & Lab are wary of them. Again, I'm not a UKIP voter, not convinced by some of their policies, but at least Farage says it as it is, and avoids a question by beating around the bush or spouting statistics.
It will be interesting next year.
Yes, Ralph Miliband said he hated Britain in his diary when he was 16, before he served in the Royal Navy, and happily lived in and contributed to the UK for the next 54 years. I don't see the relevance of his father's teenage diary to Ed Miliband.
Interestingly walking to work in Dartford today I saw that someone had taken a tin of paint to a UKIP ad board.
Bottom line though is that Murdoch put Cameron in Downing Street and he wants to keep him there - so Nigel better buckle up because once KRM gets on the can he just never stops shitting.
I've just spent a fair bit of time reading the lengthy posts on this and the previous page. I enjoyed it and it was very informative, good work everyone.
Just on BBC now telling them how Farage was completely right about the Romanians and doesn't care if that's racist...