I think we are good enough (mid table form) to secure our Championship status at one of the two home games - this side is starting to grow and I hope we can keep the best players. Very hard to call who the third team going down might be and to be honest would prefer we are safe first.
Looking at the fixtures now, i think that favourites for the last spot are now Donny and Millwall. Cant see either getting many points and can see Millwall going down on 45 points. One draw now and i think we are safe.
Although there is still work to do, what is really comforting is that we are top of a five team league, competing to avoid the final relegation slot. As a result, the odd surprise result won't leave us in the cart, as not all of these teams will pick up points in the final rounds of games.
Two points from the Blackburn and Watford games should ensure we're clear of danger before the final day at Blackpool. It would be great to get three on Saturday but that might be a little too straightforward for CAFC.
I still expect there to be unexpected results between now and the end of the season, the freak victory out of nowhere. Hopefully Watford will be out of playoff contention by the time we play them, as Blackburn will be a tough game (their next game is away to Derby)
Its simple really. If we win on Saturday and any one of Donny, Bpool or the scum lose, we are safe. In fact, we would be safe even if Bpool draw rather than lose.
I expect us to lose against Blackburn, but most of the teams below us will lose as well. Watford may be a better chance of picking up points, hopefully we can go into the last weekend with a decent GD advantage
I still very uneasy about the last few games. 4 points and we should be ok.
I actually think that we'll be okay even in the ultra pessimistic scenario that we lose all three remaining games.
Millwall: I can't see them getting more than one point from QPR and Bournemouth, so we should stay above them on goal difference (even if we lose all three).
Doncaster: I think they will lose to both Reading and Leicester, and even if they pick up one point from those two games we should still finish above them on goal difference - even if we lose all three.
Birmingham: I think they would finish above us if we were to lose all of our remaining games. However, a record of 1 draw and 2 losses from Leeds, Wigan and Bolton doesn't sound too implausible; in which case, we'd finish above them.
Blackpool: Obviously, if we lost all of our remaining games, one would be against Blackpool, meaning that they would finish above us.
Barnsley: I think 3 points from Middlesbrough and QPR is the best they could hope for, which would still see them relegated.
Yeovil: Pretty much gone.
Therefore, I think that even if we lose all three that we'll finish above Yeovil, Barnsley, and at least one of Millwall, Doncaster or Birmingham.
Could do with Reading winning and Leicester losing tonight. Then if Leicester don't win at Hudders they will need to beat Donny to become Champions on the last day. Reading need to keep their play-off hopes in their hands, so i think Doncaster are right in the shit.
Can see us just needing another point but 3 and its all over.
Reading at home is a massive game for Donny as I can't see them getting anything from Leicester. Millwall really have to hope we have something to play for when we play Blackpool. Not because the players won't try - but this has been a real physical test for them and when (if) they get over the line, I think the intensity will go. I can't see anything other than a QPR win on Staurday.
We shouldn't forget Brum - they haven't won at home in 16 and they have 2 home games coming up! They could be this season's Wolves.
I think the rearranged fixture vs Doncaster is the one that will have saved us. I think we'll be safe come Blackpool, but we'll lose and subsequently Doncaster will drop.
Based on somewhat subjective probability calculations I reckon we have roughly a 24% chance of being safe today and a 75% chance of being safe by full time on Tuesday night.
Comments
Very hard to call who the third team going down might be and to be honest would prefer we are safe first.
One draw now and i think we are safe.
Two points from the Blackburn and Watford games should ensure we're clear of danger before the final day at Blackpool. It would be great to get three on Saturday but that might be a little too straightforward for CAFC.
http://www.backhenrystreet.co.uk/thread-18328-page-2.html#.U1VyIPRDuWg
We are generally priced between 10/1 and 16/1 elsewhere, so that is a pretty decent price.
Personally I think we will draw against Blackburn
Yeovil Barnsley donny bham Blackpool Millwank will lose
And then we are home and hosed
Millwall: I can't see them getting more than one point from QPR and Bournemouth, so we should stay above them on goal difference (even if we lose all three).
Doncaster: I think they will lose to both Reading and Leicester, and even if they pick up one point from those two games we should still finish above them on goal difference - even if we lose all three.
Birmingham: I think they would finish above us if we were to lose all of our remaining games. However, a record of 1 draw and 2 losses from Leeds, Wigan and Bolton doesn't sound too implausible; in which case, we'd finish above them.
Blackpool: Obviously, if we lost all of our remaining games, one would be against Blackpool, meaning that they would finish above us.
Barnsley: I think 3 points from Middlesbrough and QPR is the best they could hope for, which would still see them relegated.
Yeovil: Pretty much gone.
Therefore, I think that even if we lose all three that we'll finish above Yeovil, Barnsley, and at least one of Millwall, Doncaster or Birmingham.
Can see us just needing another point but 3 and its all over.
We shouldn't forget Brum - they haven't won at home in 16 and they have 2 home games coming up! They could be this season's Wolves.
18. Charlton - 45 pts - Blackburn (h) Watford (h) Blackpool (a)
19. Doncaster - 44 pts - Reading (h), Leicester (a)
20. Millwall - 44 pts - QPR (a), Bournemouth (h)
21. Birmingham - 43 pts - Leeds (h) Wigan (h), Bolton (a),
22. Blackpool - 43 pts - Wigan (a), Charlton (h)
23. Barnsley - 39 pts - Middlesborough (a), QPR (h)
24 Yeovil