I do some M&A work involving the global ad agency networks who often acquire local agency businesses. I don't get involved in the numbers once the two sides are hooked up, so others here -such as Off_it, I think - will know more about that stage. However, when the potential deal gets to DD stage, it usually goes through. DD findings often modify (lowers) the price the buyer is ready to pay, but the seller usually agrees because DD has uncovered the truth. It is unusual for the buyers to walk away completely after DD, not least because DD is expensive for the buyer.
I am not rushing to a conclusion based on those remarks. It just seems a bit odd if we have been through DD several times and nothing transpired.
However much I know that the only possible outcome is that the current owners sell the club, I still can't bring myself to believe any of the rumours going around...
Rumours we are in DD again began circulating 2-3 weeks ago Stem. I believe that to be true, but knowing the amount of times this happened previously you begin to take it with a pinch of salt.
I've personally heard nothing to suggest who is behind it though
As i said earlier two days ago watch out for the Germans
Why would Germans buy an English second division club when German football is booming? (I can think of an answer, but wonder if it is the same one you would give)
Gernan football may well be booming but the English Premiership is still the richest in the world.
And people and companies now trade in a global village. So why not a German buyer or any other nationality for that matter including British.
Saying Arabs or Russians or whatever may seem more exciting but it will be honesty, openess and a long term sustainable business plan that matter, to me at least, rather than the owner's passport.
I do some M&A work involving the global ad agency networks who often acquire local agency businesses. I don't get involved in the numbers once the two sides are hooked up, so others here -such as Off_it, I think - will know more about that stage. However, when the potential deal gets to DD stage, it usually goes through. DD findings often modify (lowers) the price the buyer is ready to pay, but the seller usually agrees because DD has uncovered the truth. It is unusual for the buyers to walk away completely after DD, not least because DD is expensive for the buyer.
I am not rushing to a conclusion based on those remarks. It just seems a bit odd if we have been through DD several times and nothing transpired.
There's DD and there's DD. Sometimes it involves someone coming along for 10 minutes, poking about with a stick and seeing if there's anything obviously smelly in there. Sometimes it involves teams of people being onsite for days on end looking at everything from players contracts through to how many bog rolls are bought.
By the time someone likes me gets involved things are normally a fairly long way down the track, so usually the deal will be going through anyway - regardless of what comes out the woodwork. Any problems from my perspective usually result in a price chip, or some extra warranties or indeminities/guarantees rather than the deal collapsing completely. It does happen though, and probably more often then you will think.
Certainly it does concern me that we seem to have been here before - a number of times if the rumours are true - but for whatever reason the delas just dont seem to get over the line.
The optimist in me hopes that's simply because the asking price is too high, so potential buyers back out because it's just "not worth it" or "too risky" when it comes to looking at potential returns, etc. The pessimist in me worries that there's a whole pile of steaming shit there which makes people run a mile when they tumble it.
That all makes sense to me Offie. I also wonder what kind of steaming shit there can actually be. The business isn't on the surface particularly complicated. That's why with a bit of work the Trust boys have managed to work out P&L and cash flow forecasts which turn out to be close to reality. I suppose the shit might be hidden liabilities. But so far nobody has really uncovered or even suggested such things. So yes, maybe it really is that TJ has up to now tried to be a bit greedy.
Gernan football may well be booming but the English Premiership is still the richest in the world.
And people and companies now trade in a global village. So why not a German buyer or any other nationality for that matter including British.
Saying Arabs or Russians or whatever may seem more exciting but it will be honesty, openess and a long term sustainable business plan that matter, to me at least, rather than the owner's passport.
All true Henry, and amen to your last sentence; however I can think of a German specific factor, I was just hoping @cafc1263 might play it back to us, if he has some concrete info
Got to be the case. We are not the only basket case in English football, in fact I would summise we are nowhere near the top of the steaming pile. Others have been taken over. Me thinks TJ (and whoever/whatever he bats for) are being a tad greedy. When the numbers work we will get bought but I think we are priced way too high atm for the hassle.
No real information so please don't slaughter me but there was a group of German guys, all in their 30's or 40's in front of us in the NW Quadrant today, never seen them before, they spent a lot of time looking around the stadium making observations, sadly in German (I failed my O level so wasn't able to translate, sorry). Just saying.............. (looks for tin hat)
I don't think we are in due diligence at all as the resurgence of the rumour is mainly born of hope, not even a whisper. What I suspect is dawning on TJ is a dose of reality. Losing a court case has a way of making people take things a bit more seriously, and I suspect that TJ might think again about the asking price for Charlton Athletic. The figures suggest that TJ/KC and all can still come away breaking even and if they were content with that, then the overall price of the club might just become a little more tempting for somebody. I guestimate that £15 mil plus the liabilities would help TJ et al to go away once their pride about 'saving' Charlton dissolves and reduces the ego premium.
No real information so please don't slaughter me but there was a group of German guys, all in their 30's or 40's in front of us in the NW Quadrant today, never seen them before, they spent a lot of time looking around the stadium making observations, sadly in German (I failed my O level so wasn't able to translate, sorry). Just saying.............. (looks for tin hat)
Dont get your tin hat on my account. Against Wigan there were a group of six spaniards in front of me in NW upper. Took loads of photos and looked around the stadium. !!!
2 Germans behind me in the NL kiosk queue, all the information I got was they laughed at tea and hot chocolate being served and pulled faces at the beer
If the Germans took over, you would hope that the beer in the kiosks would improve as would the hot dogs. The game would most likely start on time as well.
For me the takeover (by decent legitimate owners) can't happen soon enough. We are 3 decent players off a top 6 finish. We looking at a bottom 6 finish currently.
I don't think we are in due diligence at all as the resurgence of the rumour is mainly born of hope, not even a whisper. What I suspect is dawning on TJ is a dose of reality. Losing a court case has a way of making people take things a bit more seriously, and I suspect that TJ might think again about the asking price for Charlton Athletic. The figures suggest that TJ/KC and all can still come away breaking even and if they were content with that, then the overall price of the club might just become a little more tempting for somebody. I guestimate that £15 mil plus the liabilities would help TJ et al to go away once their pride about 'saving' Charlton dissolves and reduces the ego premium.
Dose of reality, Tone can't be selling as if he was surely he would have turned up today, I didn't see him there and when I get home I hear he was too busy watching Chelski to bother coming to The Valley, no doubt Slater was in Blue as well. We are in the crap and they don't even want to be there, dose of reality please get out of our club!
... For me the takeover (by decent legitimate owners) can't happen soon enough. We are 3 decent players off a top 6 finish. We looking at a bottom 6 finish currently.
This I'm afraid I have written off this season and the quicker we can get to new owners, new investment and signing the top players the better.
That all makes sense to me Offie. I also wonder what kind of steaming shit there can actually be. The business isn't on the surface particularly complicated. That's why with a bit of work the Trust boys have managed to work out P&L and cash flow forecasts which turn out to be close to reality. I suppose the shit might be hidden liabilities. But so far nobody has really uncovered or even suggested such things. So yes, maybe it really is that TJ has up to now tried to be a bit greedy.
I simply cannot see any major issues "hidden" and really sense that the owners are lowering their expectations.
I heard rumours of the asking price last summer and it was way too high - CAFC is only worth something serious outside of the Premier League if the club is challenging for and in the play-offs. When the Trust first went fishing for CAFC numbers last March someone stated that a big chunk of TV money arrives in January then nothing... and the club loses money every month. This fact alone indicates to me that the owners want to sell the club before they have to start funding it again in February.
You have to assume that there is overlap with their business which for me folks means redevelopment of the Valley and Peninsula here we come. If it means that the future of the club is preserved on a sustainable and competitive basis, I'm all for it I'm afraid.
Comments
I am not rushing to a conclusion based on those remarks. It just seems a bit odd if we have been through DD several times and nothing transpired.
And people and companies now trade in a global village. So why not a German buyer or any other nationality for that matter including British.
Saying Arabs or Russians or whatever may seem more exciting but it will be honesty, openess and a long term sustainable business plan that matter, to me at least, rather than the owner's passport.
By the time someone likes me gets involved things are normally a fairly long way down the track, so usually the deal will be going through anyway - regardless of what comes out the woodwork. Any problems from my perspective usually result in a price chip, or some extra warranties or indeminities/guarantees rather than the deal collapsing completely. It does happen though, and probably more often then you will think.
Certainly it does concern me that we seem to have been here before - a number of times if the rumours are true - but for whatever reason the delas just dont seem to get over the line.
The optimist in me hopes that's simply because the asking price is too high, so potential buyers back out because it's just "not worth it" or "too risky" when it comes to looking at potential returns, etc. The pessimist in me worries that there's a whole pile of steaming shit there which makes people run a mile when they tumble it.
Who knows.
What I suspect is dawning on TJ is a dose of reality. Losing a court case has a way of making people take things a bit more seriously, and I suspect that TJ might think again about the asking price for Charlton Athletic. The figures suggest that TJ/KC and all can still come away breaking even and if they were content with that, then the overall price of the club might just become a little more tempting for somebody.
I guestimate that £15 mil plus the liabilities would help TJ et al to go away once their pride about 'saving' Charlton dissolves and reduces the ego premium.
For me the takeover (by decent legitimate owners) can't happen soon enough. We are 3 decent players off a top 6 finish. We looking at a bottom 6 finish currently.
I'm afraid I have written off this season and the quicker we can get to new owners, new investment and signing the top players the better. I simply cannot see any major issues "hidden" and really sense that the owners are lowering their expectations.
I heard rumours of the asking price last summer and it was way too high - CAFC is only worth something serious outside of the Premier League if the club is challenging for and in the play-offs. When the Trust first went fishing for CAFC numbers last March someone stated that a big chunk of TV money arrives in January then nothing... and the club loses money every month. This fact alone indicates to me that the owners want to sell the club before they have to start funding it again in February.
British company is good news.
Fingers crossed