Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.

Italy

In a proper mess. A real possibility they may pull out of the €uro and eventually the EU. In a nutshell, like a lot of European countries, Italy has seen a surge in populist political parties. Supporters believe the €uro has been a financial disaster for Italy and only beneficial to Germany and the EU is ruled by and for the benefit of Germany.

Discuss.
«1345

Comments

  • Let's not eh?

    That's fine if you are unable to.
  • Not in the world cup
  • Nice Riviera
  • sam3110 said:

    Not in the world cup

    Bloody EU.
  • Neither populist party is currently advocating leaving either the EU or the Euro. From what I can find online, that has always been the case with the EU, but not necessarily the Euro. However, both parties, at least publicly, are saying reform from within is better than leaving.

    Their two big demands are a forgiving of dents (ain't going to happen, though they may get improved terms) and help with immigration, which I believe they will get as it's becoming the hot button topic across the Eurozone.

    It will be interesting to see how the immigration problem is tackled as it could show what was possible if we'd have stayed in the EU. Net migration into Italy is more than double that of the UK.
  • Nice to see the Populist voters being told they have no idea what they've been voting for. I wonder where we've seen this before?

    Stunning to see the Bankers trying to save their sorry arses, despite a large amount of the issues in Italy being caused by them.

    Amusing to see the Presidential choice for Interim Prime Minister, turn up at the press conference in a shiny new Merc. Which went down well with the populists.

    Italian politics in chaos? It was ever thus.
  • Italy beat Saudi Arabia 2-1 yesterday in Mancini's 1st game in charge

    Balotelli scored in his 1st game for Italy in almost 4 years.

    Thats all I have to say regarding Italy
  • Neither populist party is currently advocating leaving either the EU or the Euro. From what I can find online, that has always been the case with the EU, but not necessarily the Euro. However, both parties, at least publicly, are saying reform from within is better than leaving.

    Their two big demands are a forgiving of dents (ain't going to happen, though they may get improved terms) and help with immigration, which I believe they will get as it's becoming the hot button topic across the Eurozone.

    It will be interesting to see how the immigration problem is tackled as it could show what was possible if we'd have stayed in the EU. Net migration into Italy is more than double that of the UK.

    Watch Newsnight or BBC News channel rather than rely on on-line research. They've been reporting all week. As I said the supporters of the two main populist parties are advocating leaving the €uro.
  • Sponsored links:


  • Yes it’s a mess but it’s not a ‘real possibility’ they may leave. Will know more I’m September but there is next to 0 chance Italy is leaving the EU.
  • edited May 29
    Riviera said:

    Neither populist party is currently advocating leaving either the EU or the Euro. From what I can find online, that has always been the case with the EU, but not necessarily the Euro. However, both parties, at least publicly, are saying reform from within is better than leaving.

    Their two big demands are a forgiving of dents (ain't going to happen, though they may get improved terms) and help with immigration, which I believe they will get as it's becoming the hot button topic across the Eurozone.

    It will be interesting to see how the immigration problem is tackled as it could show what was possible if we'd have stayed in the EU. Net migration into Italy is more than double that of the UK.

    Watch Newsnight or BBC News channel rather than rely on on-line research. They've been reporting all week. As I said the supporters of the two main populist parties are advocating leaving the €uro.
    Well the online research was the BBC news website, so not sure what difference that is to news night or BBC news channel, the content is literally created by the same journalists.
  • and I thought it was only a handful of mad brexiteers who wanted out of the EU... who would have thought it.
  • 'cos the Lira was a roaring success.
  • edited May 30
    Riviera said:

    Neither populist party is currently advocating leaving either the EU or the Euro. From what I can find online, that has always been the case with the EU, but not necessarily the Euro. However, both parties, at least publicly, are saying reform from within is better than leaving.

    Their two big demands are a forgiving of dents (ain't going to happen, though they may get improved terms) and help with immigration, which I believe they will get as it's becoming the hot button topic across the Eurozone.

    It will be interesting to see how the immigration problem is tackled as it could show what was possible if we'd have stayed in the EU. Net migration into Italy is more than double that of the UK.

    Watch Newsnight or BBC News channel rather than rely on on-line research. They've been reporting all week. As I said the supporters of the two main populist parties are advocating leaving the €uro.
    Some supporters of the two parties (and their proposed Finance Minister) do advocate leaving the Euro, but neither party stood on a platform of leaving either the Euro or EU.

    My understanding of Italian politics is limited at best, despite avidly following politics in the media, but my understanding (from interviews heard and read) is that the President was, strictly speaking, within his rights - for all that I am very dubious about his actions (because, IMHO, the fairytale economic policies put forward would have been unlikely to survive collision with reality unscathed). His express intention was to protect the Italian economy (and the people), where the cost of government borrowing is increasing because of the rise of the populists, whose economic policies would significantly increase the national debt, however poorly executed his strategy may prove to be.

    If, in the now imminent General Election, they stand on a platform of leaving the EU/Euro, and if they get an overall majority, the Lega and M5M can then seek to lead the Italian people in that direction (though, as a Europhile, I hope they fail).
  • Was in Italy just over a week ago - I did say watch this space in a previous thread.
  • The problem is that the Italian economy is not doing well. Youth unemployment is at silly levels and a country that really din't have any immigrants is getting loads. Of course the previous generations are to blame but there are easy targets. The Euro wouldn't be so crazy if Germany wasn't in it, but it certainly doesn't help because it prevents a country like Italy using its currency rate as a tool.

  • populist
    ˈpɒpjʊlɪst/Submit
    noun
    1.
    a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.

    Bastards populists!

    Anyway, although I would sit and argue for the idea of a single market and The European Union as a whole, I don't believe that currency union can work over a vast continent like Europe, I think anyone with even a basic grasp of monetary policy can understand that.

    I think that Italy has been one of the victims of that, although nowhere near as much as they would like to portray it as to rid themselves of any responsibility...

    I also think that because of things like this, The European Union will have to fundamentally change, or dismantle in my lifetime.
  • edited May 30
    Yes, there are other greater factors with Italy - but it is something they can latch onto.

    I would have liked for forces for change to form within the EU. I have said it many times but I think the EU would work much better if it kicked out Germany. Bringing in the former Eastern Block countries was stupid too! Which of course was a position led by Germany. It is heading the way you describe, and peveresly, that is why we ought not to be leaving yet, as it will fight to survive and that won't be good for us.
  • Sponsored links:


  • The problem is that the Italian economy is not doing well. Youth unemployment is at silly levels and a country that really din't have any immigrants is getting loads. Of course the previous generations are to blame but there are easy targets. The Euro wouldn't be so crazy if Germany wasn't in it, but it certainly doesn't help because it prevents a country like Italy using its currency rate as a tool.

    The report I heard this morning on World Service was that the economy was growing at 1.5% (which could be better), but that the real problem is the government debt. A slow rate of growth is not, by itself a disaster.

    The debt is a hangover from the policies of the eighties (the sort of thing that the Lega and M5M want to reintroduce, with both tax cuts and increased largesse to the voters - which is obviously not a bribe). However, if allied with a relatively sluggish economy over the last twenty years, and especially the impact of the last (current?) economic crisis, means that the debt has not been reducing at anything like an acceptable rate (reportedly despite prudent fiscal policies).

    The one thing that is guaranteed with the Lega/M5M proposals is that Italy's debt will rise, and there is little indication that their policies will increase productivity sufficiently to replace the loss in tax revenue (which will diminish the country's ability to pay off its existing debt, while the rates offered for new borrowing will increase, to reflect the greater chance of default, etc.).
  • Huskaris said:

    populist
    ˈpɒpjʊlɪst/Submit
    noun
    1.
    a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.

    Bastards populists!

    Anyway, although I would sit and argue for the idea of a single market and The European Union as a whole, I don't believe that currency union can work over a vast continent like Europe, I think anyone with even a basic grasp of monetary policy can understand that.

    I think that Italy has been one of the victims of that, although nowhere near as much as they would like to portray it as to rid themselves of any responsibility...

    I also think that because of things like this, The European Union will have to fundamentally change, or dismantle in my lifetime.

    I think it is entirely possible for a single currency to work across the EU (after all is the EU dramatically bigger than the USA in terms of size?), but to be most effective it would require greater financial/economic integration - and it is moot whether the mood music supports such a move at the moment, but that might be because Mr. Juncker is a fan.
  • edited May 30
    I have been going to Italy for 50 odd years - all my life basically - and much of that is seeing the real Italy, not the tourist aspects. I would say that Italy was a much more optimistic vibrant place in the 70s. And it has been going downhill since.

    Growth is extremely important, but youth unemployment creates despair. We can't go around telling Italians it isn't so bad or even good like the arrogant Cameron and Osborne did during the referendum. If you are working harder for less and your children can't get jobs you are just going to tell politicians to F off!

    If our government was intelligent - which it obviously isn't - it would be holding meetings with the Italian leadership about how both countries could work together outside of the EU. This would put the wind up the EU and strengthen our negotiating position.
  • Huskaris said:

    populist
    ˈpɒpjʊlɪst/Submit
    noun
    1.
    a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.

    Bastards populists!

    Anyway, although I would sit and argue for the idea of a single market and The European Union as a whole, I don't believe that currency union can work over a vast continent like Europe, I think anyone with even a basic grasp of monetary policy can understand that.

    I think that Italy has been one of the victims of that, although nowhere near as much as they would like to portray it as to rid themselves of any responsibility...

    I also think that because of things like this, The European Union will have to fundamentally change, or dismantle in my lifetime.

    I think it is entirely possible for a single currency to work across the EU (after all is the EU dramatically bigger than the USA in terms of size?), but to be most effective it would require greater financial/economic integration - and it is moot whether the mood music supports such a move at the moment, but that might be because Mr. Juncker is a fan.
    The USA is definitely bigger, but the issue for me is the amount of different governments that there are that pursue different economic policies in their nations (I know that there is some devolved power in the USA too but nowhere near as much as individual nation states).

    Lots of different economic policies in nations, combined with the fact that there really are more barriers to *true* free movement of people (language being key amongst them for me). This means that if say, I lived in a place of high unemployment in the US, I would be much more likely to move to a different part, I know that obviously many do that in Europe, but there are more barriers with things like language I would argue, especially for truly skilled labour as the level of language in business required can be very difficult to master. This means that the market finds it harder to naturally correct itself, for example, I doubt you see the same variation for a low skilled worker salary 2 different parts of the USA as you do in say, the UK and Poland.

    Different regions of both the US and Europe, and the individual states within those nations, will require different stimulus through monetary policy than others, but I would argue that the most difficult monetary union is the one the European Union has, with so many difficult natural barriers that don't exist in places like the USA.
  • edited May 30
    Which is why the EU should always have been a club of nations trading with each other on favourable terms and working together on big projects when advantageous.

    We can set interest rates that suit our economy, within the EU, you have an economy that is arguably the strongest in the world and other far weaker ones. The strongest economy has the most power so the right decisions for the weaker ones often don't get taken. You can't make the Euro work unless you kick Germany out of it or it adopts a policy of acting outside of its own interests for the sake of weaker countries, which politically it can't do if it wanted to.

    It is the same sort of folly that makes it force austerity - a policy that any decent economist will tell you is rubbish, on the rest of us.
  • I have been going to Italy for 50 odd years - all my life basically - and much of that is seeing the real Italy, not the tourist aspects. I would say that Italy was a much more optimistic vibrant place in the 70s. And it has been going downhill since.

    Growth is extremely important, but youth unemployment creates despair. We can't go around telling Italians it isn't so bad or even good like the arrogant Cameron and Osborne did during the referendum. If you are working harder for less and your children can't get jobs you are just going to tell politicians to F off!

    If our government was intelligent - which it obviously isn't - it would be holding meetings with the Italian leadership about how both countries could work together outside of the EU. This would put the wind up the EU and strengthen our negotiating position.

    Except that it is a) unlikely that Italy would actually vote to leave the EU, not impossible, but unlikely and b) the UK will no longer be a member of the EU by the time that Italy would come to such a decision.

    As a personal aside, I'm really not that sure that the UK Government, having got into bed with the DUP already, would really want to be caught in a close embrace with the Lega (who have a whiff of something hard right about at least some of their support).

    And, to be truthful, I don't really think that a Lega/M5M government could work in the long-term, at least not sufficiently long-term to manage the process of leaving the EU. I have considerable doubts about the degree of competence within M5M in particular (some of their mayors have proved very divisive), they have an ability to make a case to the people, but I am not convinced at their ability or willingness to govern.

    I'm almost tempted to suggest a comparison with the waning years of the Roman Republic (because I'd enjoy a natter about the Gracchi, Marius and Sulla, etc.), almost...
  • Like a lot of people I'm a bit cautious about wading into anything Italy as I freely admit to not understanding the country. However Italy has always worried me in the EU context, and so I am worried now.

    I often say that in the UK people looked to blame the EU for a range of problems that were clearly in fact the result of national political decisions, and thus entirely within our gift to resolve. That's how I see Italy, in spades. The single biggest issue is the enormous and still growing role of organised crime. That was true in the early 60s, (I can remember as a kid watching a BBC drama series, Vendetta, and being thoroughly spooked by it) and as far as I can tell Italy has made no progress in pushing it back, let alone eradicating it. I think that in the 60s the other countires simply assumed Italy would join them on the road to mature post-war democracy, and unfortunately it has never happened. That's largely because of the role of organised crime. The figures are staggering, and it is inconceivable that many politicians are not directly profiting from it. Probably as a result, I also know from friends who have lived there that middle class Italians insulate themselves through extensive "private" savings, though I never quite understood what 'private' means. Sooo..which of the current political parties stood on a platform of even pushing back on, let alone eliminating the Mafia? Not just this time, but in the last 20 years? I cannot remember any. Seems to come down to brave individual law makers and enforcers, who usually end up dead. I am afraid as a result I am not a great fan of Italians. It's their country and they should elect politicians who can spot an elephant when it's in the room. If they can't then I would love to be able to kick them out of the EU tomorrow, we'd be the better for it, but they are so entwined in it that it just isn't possible.

    But I may be unfair, and showing my ignorance. I welcome a different view from those with more detailed knowledge of the country.
  • I know a few young Italians (25-30) here in London and they say they would never go back, even though their parents etc are there. Went on holiday there last year, I’ve got a big soft spot for Italy as I love the culture and the food and the women (oh lawdy) but as a people they are strongly in two camps, either they are complete and utter self absorbed arseholes or the loveliest friendliest and most welcoming people you can meet. I can see why their politics is so messed up over there.
  • I refer you to a message I recently posted

Sign In or Register to comment.

Roland Out!