In a proper mess. A real possibility they may pull out of the €uro and eventually the EU. In a nutshell, like a lot of European countries, Italy has seen a surge in populist political parties. Supporters believe the €uro has been a financial disaster for Italy and only beneficial to Germany and the EU is ruled by and for the benefit of Germany.
Discuss.
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Comments
Their two big demands are a forgiving of dents (ain't going to happen, though they may get improved terms) and help with immigration, which I believe they will get as it's becoming the hot button topic across the Eurozone.
It will be interesting to see how the immigration problem is tackled as it could show what was possible if we'd have stayed in the EU. Net migration into Italy is more than double that of the UK.
Stunning to see the Bankers trying to save their sorry arses, despite a large amount of the issues in Italy being caused by them.
Amusing to see the Presidential choice for Interim Prime Minister, turn up at the press conference in a shiny new Merc. Which went down well with the populists.
Italian politics in chaos? It was ever thus.
Balotelli scored in his 1st game for Italy in almost 4 years.
Thats all I have to say regarding Italy
My understanding of Italian politics is limited at best, despite avidly following politics in the media, but my understanding (from interviews heard and read) is that the President was, strictly speaking, within his rights - for all that I am very dubious about his actions (because, IMHO, the fairytale economic policies put forward would have been unlikely to survive collision with reality unscathed). His express intention was to protect the Italian economy (and the people), where the cost of government borrowing is increasing because of the rise of the populists, whose economic policies would significantly increase the national debt, however poorly executed his strategy may prove to be.
If, in the now imminent General Election, they stand on a platform of leaving the EU/Euro, and if they get an overall majority, the Lega and M5M can then seek to lead the Italian people in that direction (though, as a Europhile, I hope they fail).
ˈpɒpjʊlɪst/Submit
noun
1.
a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.
Bastards populists!
Anyway, although I would sit and argue for the idea of a single market and The European Union as a whole, I don't believe that currency union can work over a vast continent like Europe, I think anyone with even a basic grasp of monetary policy can understand that.
I think that Italy has been one of the victims of that, although nowhere near as much as they would like to portray it as to rid themselves of any responsibility...
I also think that because of things like this, The European Union will have to fundamentally change, or dismantle in my lifetime.
I would have liked for forces for change to form within the EU. I have said it many times but I think the EU would work much better if it kicked out Germany. Bringing in the former Eastern Block countries was stupid too! Which of course was a position led by Germany. It is heading the way you describe, and peveresly, that is why we ought not to be leaving yet, as it will fight to survive and that won't be good for us.
The debt is a hangover from the policies of the eighties (the sort of thing that the Lega and M5M want to reintroduce, with both tax cuts and increased largesse to the voters - which is obviously not a bribe). However, if allied with a relatively sluggish economy over the last twenty years, and especially the impact of the last (current?) economic crisis, means that the debt has not been reducing at anything like an acceptable rate (reportedly despite prudent fiscal policies).
The one thing that is guaranteed with the Lega/M5M proposals is that Italy's debt will rise, and there is little indication that their policies will increase productivity sufficiently to replace the loss in tax revenue (which will diminish the country's ability to pay off its existing debt, while the rates offered for new borrowing will increase, to reflect the greater chance of default, etc.).
Growth is extremely important, but youth unemployment creates despair. We can't go around telling Italians it isn't so bad or even good like the arrogant Cameron and Osborne did during the referendum. If you are working harder for less and your children can't get jobs you are just going to tell politicians to F off!
If our government was intelligent - which it obviously isn't - it would be holding meetings with the Italian leadership about how both countries could work together outside of the EU. This would put the wind up the EU and strengthen our negotiating position.
Lots of different economic policies in nations, combined with the fact that there really are more barriers to *true* free movement of people (language being key amongst them for me). This means that if say, I lived in a place of high unemployment in the US, I would be much more likely to move to a different part, I know that obviously many do that in Europe, but there are more barriers with things like language I would argue, especially for truly skilled labour as the level of language in business required can be very difficult to master. This means that the market finds it harder to naturally correct itself, for example, I doubt you see the same variation for a low skilled worker salary 2 different parts of the USA as you do in say, the UK and Poland.
Different regions of both the US and Europe, and the individual states within those nations, will require different stimulus through monetary policy than others, but I would argue that the most difficult monetary union is the one the European Union has, with so many difficult natural barriers that don't exist in places like the USA.
We can set interest rates that suit our economy, within the EU, you have an economy that is arguably the strongest in the world and other far weaker ones. The strongest economy has the most power so the right decisions for the weaker ones often don't get taken. You can't make the Euro work unless you kick Germany out of it or it adopts a policy of acting outside of its own interests for the sake of weaker countries, which politically it can't do if it wanted to.
It is the same sort of folly that makes it force austerity - a policy that any decent economist will tell you is rubbish, on the rest of us.
As a personal aside, I'm really not that sure that the UK Government, having got into bed with the DUP already, would really want to be caught in a close embrace with the Lega (who have a whiff of something hard right about at least some of their support).
And, to be truthful, I don't really think that a Lega/M5M government could work in the long-term, at least not sufficiently long-term to manage the process of leaving the EU. I have considerable doubts about the degree of competence within M5M in particular (some of their mayors have proved very divisive), they have an ability to make a case to the people, but I am not convinced at their ability or willingness to govern.
I'm almost tempted to suggest a comparison with the waning years of the Roman Republic (because I'd enjoy a natter about the Gracchi, Marius and Sulla, etc.), almost...
I often say that in the UK people looked to blame the EU for a range of problems that were clearly in fact the result of national political decisions, and thus entirely within our gift to resolve. That's how I see Italy, in spades. The single biggest issue is the enormous and still growing role of organised crime. That was true in the early 60s, (I can remember as a kid watching a BBC drama series, Vendetta, and being thoroughly spooked by it) and as far as I can tell Italy has made no progress in pushing it back, let alone eradicating it. I think that in the 60s the other countires simply assumed Italy would join them on the road to mature post-war democracy, and unfortunately it has never happened. That's largely because of the role of organised crime. The figures are staggering, and it is inconceivable that many politicians are not directly profiting from it. Probably as a result, I also know from friends who have lived there that middle class Italians insulate themselves through extensive "private" savings, though I never quite understood what 'private' means. Sooo..which of the current political parties stood on a platform of even pushing back on, let alone eliminating the Mafia? Not just this time, but in the last 20 years? I cannot remember any. Seems to come down to brave individual law makers and enforcers, who usually end up dead. I am afraid as a result I am not a great fan of Italians. It's their country and they should elect politicians who can spot an elephant when it's in the room. If they can't then I would love to be able to kick them out of the EU tomorrow, we'd be the better for it, but they are so entwined in it that it just isn't possible.
But I may be unfair, and showing my ignorance. I welcome a different view from those with more detailed knowledge of the country.