But your laziness has cost you some much better odds and the joys of my riveting rationales for these fellas (aka the world's finest insomnia cure).
These are my model's top 5 and their ranking, though there are fine margins between them and any are capable of winning, allowing for the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune:
1. Kandoo Kid 20/1 2. Iroko 8/1 3. Vanillier 10/1 4. Minella Cocooner 16/1 5. Senior Chief 28/1 (he's closely related to a decent runner from a few years back called Bob Bob Bobbin, so clearly a must)
If you want a wild one at a big price, either Twig (66/1 for 6 places) or Fil Dor (100/1 for 5 places or 66/1 for 6)
As an alternative to each way betting you could back on the exchanges and put in a lay offer at a lower price. For example if you put £100 on Kandoo Kid at 20/1 you could also put in a lay offer of £420 at 4/1. Assuming the lay offer is taken you will make a profit of £320 regardless of where he finishes.
Could we have Bluffers Guide on Duffle Coat please
Was going to mop the last ones to make the cut on Thursday but can do him tomorrow pm, if you don’t mind the wait. Pressing matters at Mansfield ce soir.
Could we have Bluffers Guide on Duffle Coat please
Was going to mop the last ones to make the cut on Thursday but can do him tomorrow pm, if you don’t mind the wait. Pressing matters at Mansfield ce soir.
sure, whenever you have a free moment, no stress, thanks!
Peanuts, you amaze me more and more each year. This year tops the lot with the mitochondrial DNA analysis (wait ‘til I start mentioning that down the boozer). The Bletchley Codebreaker challenges would’ve seemed like Janet and John books to you. The bluffers guide is also brilliant. Another nailed on ‘best thread award’ at the Charlton Life Oscars.
I’m on Kandoo Kid but my wish for Saturday is all horses and jockeys come home unscathed followed by Mrs Peanuts scouring the cruise ship brochures by the evening.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge and Best of luck.
Peanuts, you amaze me more and more each year. This year tops the lot with the mitochondrial DNA analysis (wait ‘til I start mentioning that down the boozer). The Bletchley Codebreaker challenges would’ve seemed like Janet and John books to you. The bluffers guide is also brilliant. Another nailed on ‘best thread award’ at the Charlton Life Oscars.
I’m on Kandoo Kid but my wish for Saturday is all horses and jockeys come home unscathed followed by Mrs Peanuts scouring the cruise ship brochures by the evening.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge and Best of luck.
Me too. Many thanks for those kind comments @paulbaconsarnie Much appreciated. Glad you’ve enjoyed it. Fingers crossed for another 3 points and a great race on Saturday. Triffic win tonight. COYR.
Peanuts, you amaze me more and more each year. This year tops the lot with the mitochondrial DNA analysis (wait ‘til I start mentioning that down the boozer). The Bletchley Codebreaker challenges would’ve seemed like Janet and John books to you. The bluffers guide is also brilliant. Another nailed on ‘best thread award’ at the Charlton Life Oscars.
I’m on Kandoo Kid but my wish for Saturday is all horses and jockeys come home unscathed followed by Mrs Peanuts scouring the cruise ship brochures by the evening.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge and Best of luck.
Me too. Many thanks for those kind comments @paulbaconsarnie Much appreciated. Glad you’ve enjoyed it. Fingers crossed for another 3 points and a great race on Saturday. Triffic win tonight. COYR.
I'm sure we all here greatly appreciate your comments and suggestions, PM, and would be lost without!
If I did my prediction guide, it would go something like:
Hewick will get stuck in overwatered mud Intense Raffles will go way to the right and disappear Vaniellier will unseat Iroko will stay at least 3 jumps behind Max will slow down to zero Percy will fall all the horses with jockeys in black silks will group at the back to make sure they don't win
I have placed 5 ante post bets online with Coral. If I now look at my Open Bets. 3 have disappeared and the 2 left say suspended. I have taken screenshots of the bets from my history to prove I placed them I can’t make head or tail of Corals Contact us button so am stumped.
I have placed 5 ante post bets online with Coral. If I now look at my Open Bets. 3 have disappeared and the 2 left say suspended. I have taken screenshots of the bets from my history to prove I placed them I can’t make head or tail of Corals Contact us button so am stumped.
Anyone had this before?
I had one bet with them which has also disappeared.
I have placed 5 ante post bets online with Coral. If I now look at my Open Bets. 3 have disappeared and the 2 left say suspended. I have taken screenshots of the bets from my history to prove I placed them I can’t make head or tail of Corals Contact us button so am stumped.
Anyone had this before?
I had one bet with them which has also disappeared.
The same thing has happened on Ladbrokes. I think they have probably closed the market and opened a new one for NRNB
Go to the my bets section at the top right , click on the arrows to the left which will give you a dates plan. Find the approximate date you placed the bets and you should retrieve them. Hope that makes sense. Good Luck.
I’ve had a nibble of an interesting Group To Finish bet available from B365.
Group B is the Mullins quartet: Max, Nick Rockett, Minella Cocooner and Meetingofthewaters. They’ve raced 68 times in total and the only PU by any of them is Max’s first run this season. Ran much better next time of course. The other 3 have never PUd and the jumping record of all 4 is outstanding. The only other failure to complete was when Meetingofthewaters was Brought Down (recorded as a UR).
MC and NR have made the first 3 home over 3.5m and Max and MOTW were 1st and 7th in the last GN, of course.
Odds are 12/1.
Given their CVs, not bad compared with probability of 1 in 16 for any 4 given horses, picked at random, completing (assuming a 50% completion rate). But the probability obviously increases with >50% completion - last year, the first with the reduced field size (32 with 2NR), there was 66% completion, and that was on Soft ground. Completion rates for the 6 (time-based) Good ground GNs since 2013 averaged 44% compared to 36% average for the 2 Soft Ground GNs of 2016 & 18.
By the way, the odds are just 9/1 for Group A: Stumptown, Vanillier, Perceval Legallois and Intense Raffles.
Stumptown: 24 runs, 3PU, 1UR (btw, the one fence he's not handled particularly well in the Cheltenham XC is the "Aintree fence") Vanillier: 27 runs, 2PU, 1F Intense Raffles: 15 runs, 15 completes PL: 23 runs, 1UR, 2F and he is yet to race beyond 24.5f
The average win odds of Group A (10/1) may be shorter than Group B (16.75/1) but for completion, based on respective CVs, Group B's the definite value IMHO - dare I say it's a little mis-priced!
The average win odds of Group A (10/1) may be shorter than Group B (16.75/1) but for completion, based on respective CVs, Group B's the definite value IMHO - dare I say it's a little mis-priced!
yes, I was surprised they've valued it the way they did. Unless they know something we don't!
The average win odds of Group A (10/1) may be shorter than Group B (16.75/1) but for completion, based on respective CVs, Group B's the definite value IMHO - dare I say it's a little mis-priced!
yes, I was surprised they've valued it the way they did. Unless they know something we don't!
You could argue that it was an artificially slow pace last year (I'm not sure I agree with that tbh, despite the high umber of runners contending at the last - aside from Max, every other runner was slowing appreciably over the last furlong, according to the ATR sectionals) and that quicker ground, with Hewick and other obvious front-runners, should cause a bunch more to spit the dummy.
But I suspect they've just priced them off popularity in the win/e-w market. And in that market, it's fair enough that Group A is more popular. Both Max and Nick Rockett have big weights to carry, MC to a lesser extent and MOTW has been in crap form. But Willie knew that when he picked MOTW out at the weights and Danny Mullins has, apparently, picked him over MC, though MC has a decent stand-in.
There are enough doubts for me about Stumptown on flat tracks (never made the frame in any race on a flat track in 6 attempts, including 4 at galloping tracks such as the GN course). The likely decent pace, courtesy of the likes of Hewick, could make him particularly vulnerable IMHO. So, with Perceval an unknown at the trip, at the very least I’d make A and B the same price.
No defections from top 34 at today's Declarations. So Duffle Coat is the last one to make the cut but there are 4 Reserves, in order: Shakem Up'Arry, Roi Mage, Favori De Champdou and Fantastic Lady. A reserve will run if there are withdrawals prior to 1pm tomorrow.
I hope we're going to get a Top 10 Finish market now. I have a few that could/should be at tasty-ish prices flashing away on my Top 10 radar screen. More anon.
Problem is the Top 10 market is more risky now for the bookies in the past less than 10 could finish - last year 20+finishers, only 4 unseats no fallers and only 32 runners actually started (with ground conditions this year i think that will be repeated).
BTW, re the Group To Finish bet, the other Group, Group C offered at 16/1 comprises the shortest-priced British-trained runners: Iroko, Hyland, Kandoo Kid and Monbeg Genius. Though untested beyond 25f, Iroko and Hyland are French AQPS (not pure thoroughbreds) and they have a stoic record of completing in GNs (58% compared to the GN average of 44%). Between the 4, they have 64 completes from 68 races Under Rules. BUT Monbeg Genius may be the weak link. His sire Shantou has had 13 sons run in GNs since 2013: UPU8PP0UPFU0P (3 completes = 23%, way below the GN average).
Looks like Rachel will be on Minella Indo with Darragh OKeeffe on Senior Chief. Once again thank you Peanuts for all your efforts and insights this year and let's hope for a bit of luck.
Looks like Rachel will be on Minella Indo with Darragh OKeeffe on Senior Chief. Once again thank you Peanuts for all your efforts and insights this year and let's hope for a bit of luck.
Happy with that, as O'Keefe rode him for his best Chase runs. Actually, despite her win in 2021, her winning record isn't great at 3.5m+: 45 rides and only 1 win (thankfully that one!) She's been placed 4 times, including Minella Indo, 3rd last GN.
Comments
Which is a good horse to back to win and which is a good E/W bet to complete the course?
Thanks in advance @PeanutsMolloy
But your laziness has cost you some much better odds and the joys of my riveting rationales for these fellas (aka the world's finest insomnia cure).
These are my model's top 5 and their ranking, though there are fine margins between them and any are capable of winning, allowing for the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune:
1. Kandoo Kid 20/1
2. Iroko 8/1
3. Vanillier 10/1
4. Minella Cocooner 16/1
5. Senior Chief 28/1 (he's closely related to a decent runner from a few years back called Bob Bob Bobbin, so clearly a must)
If you want a wild one at a big price, either Twig (66/1 for 6 places) or Fil Dor (100/1 for 5 places or 66/1 for 6)
Good luck.
Pressing matters at Mansfield ce soir.
This year tops the lot with the mitochondrial DNA analysis (wait ‘til I start mentioning that down the boozer). The Bletchley Codebreaker challenges would’ve seemed like Janet and John books to you.
The bluffers guide is also brilliant.
Another nailed on ‘best thread award’ at the Charlton Life Oscars.
I’m on Kandoo Kid but my wish for Saturday is all horses and jockeys come home unscathed followed by Mrs Peanuts scouring the cruise ship brochures by the evening.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge and Best of luck.
Many thanks for those kind comments @paulbaconsarnie
Much appreciated.
Glad you’ve enjoyed it.
Fingers crossed for another 3 points and a great race on Saturday.
Triffic win tonight.
COYR.
The first three on odds this morning... No, I don't think so... Although it would be so cool if Hewick could make it close!
If I did my prediction guide, it would go something like:
Intense Raffles will go way to the right and disappear
Vaniellier will unseat
Iroko will stay at least 3 jumps behind
Max will slow down to zero
Percy will fall
all the horses with jockeys in black silks will group at the back to make sure they don't win
I have placed 5 ante post bets online with Coral. If I now look at my Open Bets. 3 have disappeared and the 2 left say suspended. I have taken screenshots of the bets from my history to prove I placed them I can’t make head or tail of Corals Contact us button so am stumped.
Hope that makes sense.
Good Luck.
I’ve had a nibble of an interesting Group To Finish bet available from B365.
They’ve raced 68 times in total and the only PU by any of them is Max’s first run this season. Ran much better next time of course.
The other 3 have never PUd and the jumping record of all 4 is outstanding.
The only other failure to complete was when Meetingofthewaters was Brought Down (recorded as a UR).
MC and NR have made the first 3 home over 3.5m and Max and MOTW were 1st and 7th in the last GN, of course.
Odds are 12/1.
Given their CVs, not bad compared with probability of 1 in 16 for any 4 given horses, picked at random, completing (assuming a 50% completion rate).
But the probability obviously increases with >50% completion - last year, the first with the reduced field size (32 with 2NR), there was 66% completion, and that was on Soft ground.
Completion rates for the 6 (time-based) Good ground GNs since 2013 averaged 44% compared to 36% average for the 2 Soft Ground GNs of 2016 & 18.
Looks value to me.
Stumptown: 24 runs, 3PU, 1UR (btw, the one fence he's not handled particularly well in the Cheltenham XC is the "Aintree fence")
Vanillier: 27 runs, 2PU, 1F
Intense Raffles: 15 runs, 15 completes
PL: 23 runs, 1UR, 2F and he is yet to race beyond 24.5f
The average win odds of Group A (10/1) may be shorter than Group B (16.75/1) but for completion, based on respective CVs, Group B's the definite value IMHO - dare I say it's a little mis-priced!
But I suspect they've just priced them off popularity in the win/e-w market. And in that market, it's fair enough that Group A is more popular.
Both Max and Nick Rockett have big weights to carry, MC to a lesser extent and MOTW has been in crap form.
But Willie knew that when he picked MOTW out at the weights and Danny Mullins has, apparently, picked him over MC, though MC has a decent stand-in.
There are enough doubts for me about Stumptown on flat tracks (never made the frame in any race on a flat track in 6 attempts, including 4 at galloping tracks such as the GN course). The likely decent pace, courtesy of the likes of Hewick, could make him particularly vulnerable IMHO.
So, with Perceval an unknown at the trip, at the very least I’d make A and B the same price.
So Duffle Coat is the last one to make the cut but there are 4 Reserves, in order: Shakem Up'Arry, Roi Mage, Favori De Champdou and Fantastic Lady.
A reserve will run if there are withdrawals prior to 1pm tomorrow.
I have a few that could/should be at tasty-ish prices flashing away on my Top 10 radar screen.
More anon.
Between the 4, they have 64 completes from 68 races Under Rules.
BUT Monbeg Genius may be the weak link. His sire Shantou has had 13 sons run in GNs since 2013: UPU8PP0UPFU0P (3 completes = 23%, way below the GN average).
Once again thank you Peanuts for all your efforts and insights this year and let's hope for a bit of luck.
Actually, despite her win in 2021, her winning record isn't great at 3.5m+: 45 rides and only 1 win (thankfully that one!)
She's been placed 4 times, including Minella Indo, 3rd last GN.
BetFred 7 places.