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Grand National 2021
Comments
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Many congrats @MrOneLung - so close to winning - brilliant pick.MrOneLung said:
Get in Balko. 125/1 with Bobs lot.MrOneLung said:
Well they have goneMrOneLung said:Alpha des Obeaux at 50/1
Discorama at 25/1
Minellacelebration at 80/1
waiting for the wife, kids and mother in law to choose theirs. Hopefully they pick some of peanuts other choices !
chris’s dream (mother in laws name - well it worked at Cheltenham)
Mister Malarkey
Double Shuffle
Balko de Flos
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Thanks @PeanutsMolloy I love this thread
Again though as soon as I see a horse drop I stop caring about who wins and remember why I'm not into horse racing2 -
£5 @ 11-1 on Minella Times. Cheers Mr Molloy!
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Thanks once again @PeanutsMolloy. Mostly a lurker on this discussion, but I am in awe of your work.2
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What a day today has been!!PeanutsMolloy said:
LOL, drink 'em for me pal.CHG said:@PeanutsMolloy, that is about 10 pints I owe you now...
3 great points as well
Thanks for having confidence in my model for so many years.
Cheers1 -
Thanks Peanuts and everyone.
Minella Times brings home the bacon.
I backed him twice, with Bet365 on the half money back offer & again with Betfred on the 8 places offer.
Plus Forclas 5th & Discorama 7th in Betfred's 8 places offer. £140 profit.
I think as Peanuts comes up with a number of selections, the art to winning is to back them all at the best way possible, ie using early bets at higher odds, using Bet365's half money back & Betfred's 8 places.
It's not possible to work out which 3 of 8 will be "winners".3 -
Well done to @PeanutsMolloy again.Can’t wait for next year !1
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£40 of fine English Sterling on the superb Rachel Blackmore on Minella Times, enjoy your Saturdays charlton lifers.1
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Feasted after Cheltenham, now baked beans until May!
Well done on solving the puzzle again @PeanutsMolloy... looking forward to your post race analysis1 -
Thank you Peanut for your analysis! No winner for me this year but really enjoy this thread and the detail is pretty unbelievable, there’s always next year 👏2
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@Anna_Kissed
you've made the point you wanted to make. It’s been left as it is. No more entries to this thread please, and no more replies or points to @Anna_Kissed from others please. Thank you.If you must reply to this post then inbox me privately5 -
Thanks Peanuts - backed your main 6 with exception of Cloth Cap who was just too short odds. Turns out Minella Times was the one I backed the least but broke even so happy with that.1
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Thanks as ever @PeanutsMolloy, always brilliant reading. Backed Minella Times at an opportune 12s and Any Second Now along with Burrows Saint will cover the call to Just Eat. Rachael is just truly incredible, de Bromhead's training performance over the last few weeks more so. Can't wait for Punchestown now.1
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Thanks again Peanuts - don't comment much as a consumer rather than contributor of useful information, but have thoroughly enjoyed following this thread once again, bonus of a teeny little profit having missed on those juicy early odds on Minella Times. Ah, what could have been with Minellacelebration!
Next year will be watching like a hawk for those early antepost shouts 1 -
Had a small interest early , but only after your comments thanks Peanuts..
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Load of rubbish for me the whole aintree festival, shocking today that 12 of the 15 finishers were Irish trained, 3 out of 22 British horses finished - awful1
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Many thanks for posting @CarterCarter said:Thanks @PeanutsMolloy I love this thread
Again though as soon as I see a horse drop I stop caring about who wins and remember why I'm not into horse racing
I am glad you enjoyed the thread but I totally understand your comment.
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@Clem_SnideClem_Snide said:£5 @ 11-1 on Minella Times. Cheers Mr Molloy!
Very glad you were on.
Cheers1 -
Cheers @ChicagoAddickChicagoAddick said:Thanks once again @PeanutsMolloy. Mostly a lurker on this discussion, but I am in awe of your work.
You're very kind but nowt to be in awe of. It's just a weird little hobby
But I do appreciate your comment.1 -
Nice one to have Disco for 7, many congrats @Covered EndCovered End said:Thanks Peanuts and everyone.
Minella Times brings home the bacon.
I backed him twice, with Bet365 on the half money back offer & again with Betfred on the 8 places offer.
Plus Forclas 5th & Discorama 7th in Betfred's 8 places offer. £140 profit.
I think as Peanuts comes up with a number of selections, the art to winning is to back them all at the best way possible, ie using early bets at higher odds, using Bet365's half money back & Betfred's 8 places.
It's not possible to work out which 3 of 8 will be "winners".
You're absolutely right and that's exactly my strategy, cos all my model can do (at best) is identify what horses could win. There's so many variables I back all the top rated e/w as early as poss and, importantly, scale the bets so that I'm broadly indifferent as to which one scores. Though I would have hit the jackpot if Minellacelebration had come home in front - given the Irish domination, that's improbable but it would have been fun to see him in contention nearer the business end, as I really think he could have been.
You just don't know which are going to F, UR, get BD or have an off-day or just get unlucky.
2 of my top 7 URd, Kimberlite probably found the going a tad quick but got hampered twice anyway, Cloth Cap had a wind problem and PUd when seemingly going well and I suspect Disco may have as well. And truth be told, anyone backing Any Second Now would feel mighty unlucky as he was very badly hampered - mind you, I've been on the wrong end of that in other years.
That's why I try to flag them up early because you can get on most of them at prices that make it economic to back the lot.
Glad you scored a nice return.
Cheers
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Cheers @ValiantphilValiantphil said:Well done to @PeanutsMolloy again.Can’t wait for next year !
Much appreciated.
Got a bit of working out of those places to do but will be back ready to roll again before the Becher.
COYR1 -
Cheers @ISawLeaburnScoreISawLeaburnScore said:Feasted after Cheltenham, now baked beans until May!
Well done on solving the puzzle again @PeanutsMolloy... looking forward to your post race analysis
Delighted to have the winner but very relieved since Disco was the next best of mine in 7th and have to accept it was a tad fortunate in light of Any Second Now's misfortune.
So great to cop a reasonable return but plenty to work on model-wise and I will post some thoughts shortly.
It was a very odd race. You accept the Irish are dominant right now but, even so, virtually all the fancied British horses were not just beaten but (bar Cloth Cap) were never in the race.
Plenty to ponder.
Thanks for your contributions to the thread. Always thought-provoking and astute. Sorry you didn't get the rub of the green today.
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Glad you enjoyed it @domjoydomjoy said:Thank you Peanut for your analysis! No winner for me this year but really enjoy this thread and the detail is pretty unbelievable, there’s always next year 👏
Much appreciate your kind comment. At least my ramblings weren't entirely a load of old hooey this year but we'll try and do better still next time.
Cheers.1 -
Many thanks for your confidence @Athletico CharltonAthletico Charlton said:Thanks Peanuts - backed your main 6 with exception of Cloth Cap who was just too short odds. Turns out Minella Times was the one I backed the least but broke even so happy with that.
Much appreciated. Tricky one in that his price collapsed so quickly after Cheltenham.
I'm sorry the other 5 didn't cut the mustard for various reasons today but glad you broke even.
We'll try and get the forecast next year 2 -
Nice one with those 3 @Rock SpectacleRock Spectacle said:Thanks as ever @PeanutsMolloy, always brilliant reading. Backed Minella Times at an opportune 12s and Any Second Now along with Burrows Saint will cover the call to Just Eat. Rachael is just truly incredible, de Bromhead's training performance over the last few weeks more so. Can't wait for Punchestown now.
Many congrats.
Glad you enjoyed the thread.
Fantastic trainer and jockey - and a great horse and only an 8yo!
Cheers
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Glad you've enjoyed the thread @Oh_Yoni_BoyOh_Yoni_Boy said:Thanks again Peanuts - don't comment much as a consumer rather than contributor of useful information, but have thoroughly enjoyed following this thread once again, bonus of a teeny little profit having missed on those juicy early odds on Minella Times. Ah, what could have been with Minellacelebration!
Next year will be watching like a hawk for those early antepost shouts
and well done for being on Minella Times - it was such a drag his price collapsed with the de Bromhead/Blackmore factor so quickly after Cheltenham but glad you were on anyway.
I was absolutely gutted when Minellacelebration URd - it was so bloody soft and he was going so nicely. OK very early days and I'm not going to pretend he would have beaten off that phalanx of Irish horses at the finish but I honestly believe he'd have given us a seriously fun run for our money - AGH!!!!
I will try to flag them up again early next year.
In the meantime, all the best
Cheers4 -
Nice one @ralphmilneRaplhMilne said:Had a small interest early , but only after your comments thanks Peanuts..
Many thanks for the vote of confidence and many congrats for snaffling him early.
Cheers
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Ben Poste, Minellacelebration, (UR 11th): “I was having a great time until I fell off him!”
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Thanks for the kind words. An odd one, sat on a slip with Discorama, Mister Malarky, Takingrisks and Farclas all backed at 33s and bigger to see them priced sub 20s before the off - should have layed the lot!PeanutsMolloy said:
Cheers @ISawLeaburnScoreISawLeaburnScore said:Feasted after Cheltenham, now baked beans until May!
Well done on solving the puzzle again @PeanutsMolloy... looking forward to your post race analysis
Delighted to have the winner but very relieved since Disco was the next best of mine in 7th and have to accept it was a tad fortunate in light of Any Second Now's misfortune.
So great to cop a reasonable return but plenty to work on model-wise and I will post some thoughts shortly.
It was a very odd race. You accept the Irish are dominant right now but, even so, virtually all the fancied British horses were not just beaten but (bar Cloth Cap) were never in the race.
Plenty to ponder.
Thanks for your contributions to the thread. Always thought-provoking and astute. Sorry you didn't get the rub of the green today.
The Irish stats today were incredible, as they were at Cheltenham too obviously. Looks like the domination is set to continue as well when you look at the novice and juvenile ranks.1 -
A small but pleasing afterthought.
The O’Leary brothers are out of pocket to the tune of £40,000 as a result of selling Balko Des Flos 17 days ago and missing out on his prize money today.
Shame.9
