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Grand National 2021
Comments
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I suppose it's not surprising that the top 5 in the betting, were the first 5 home.ValleyGary said:Cloth Cap won the virtual. Complete waste of time.0 -
My final selections are (in order):
DiscoramaMagic of Light
Mister MalarkyAlpha Des ObeauxTakingrisksFarclas (who I intend to lay back on as I took on a price position when I don't particularly fancy him to stay)
Heartened to see all of the above have shortened since.
And an ante post on The Storyteller already in the bin...
On the basis that the next in line is Milan Native and I'm going to lay back on Farclas, I suspect that's the forecast right there!
Good luck everyone and thanks to @PeanutsMolloy for an absolute wealth of knowledge in the last few months - looking forward to it starting all over again in the Winter!1 -
ValleyGary said:Cloth Cap won the virtual. Complete waste of time.
Wow. Who’d have thought?
Cloth Cap
Kimberlite Candy
Any Second Now
Burrows Saint
Minella Times
Lord Du Mesnil
Takingrisks
Phenomenally boring that the Virtual first 5 are all <16/1 but obviously I’d be more than with 1st 2nd and 5th.
Putting my model to the test, its first 12 home:
Magic Of Light
Discorama
Cloth Cap
Minella Times
Minellacelebration
Kimberlite Candy
Alpha Des Obeaux
Acapella Bourgeois
Give Me A Copper
Vieux Lion Rouge
Any Second Now
Yala Enki
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Pick; taking risks 22/1 - won me a lot on scots GN. Tough sort. heart rules brain.
notable mention; Anibele fly 28/1 loves it here and is well in at the weights. Could be his year?Overpriced? : blacklion 60/1 and 10/1 the place has had bad luck and goes well at aintree?1 -
I watched the end of the Virtual a few times and whilst it's neither here nor there, I think they said Alpha & Sub Lieutenant weren't 8th & 9th, but the last 2 home.PeanutsMolloy said:ValleyGary said:Cloth Cap won the virtual. Complete waste of time.
Wow. Who’d have thought?
Cloth Cap
Kimberlite Candy
Any Second Now
Burrows Saint
Minella Times
Lord Du Mesnil
Takingrisks
Alpha Des Obeaux
Sub Lieutenant
Phenomenally boring that the Virtual first 5 are all <16/1 but obviously I’d be more than with 1st 2nd and 5th.
Putting my model to the test, its first 12 home:
Magic Of Light
Discorama
Cloth Cap
Minella Times
Minellacelebration
Kimberlite Candy
Alpha Des Obeaux
Acapella Bourgeois
Give Me A Copper
Vieux Lion Rouge
Any Second Now
Yala Enki1 -
Cheers @ISawLeaburnScoreISawLeaburnScore said:My final selections are (in order):
DiscoramaMagic of Light
Mister MalarkyAlpha Des ObeauxTakingrisksFarclas (who I intend to lay back on as I took on a price position when I don't particularly fancy him to stay)
Heartened to see all of the above have shortened since.
And an ante post on The Storyteller already in the bin...
On the basis that the next in line is Milan Native and I'm going to lay back on Farclas, I suspect that's the forecast right there!
Good luck everyone and thanks to @PeanutsMolloy for an absolute wealth of knowledge in the last few months - looking forward to it starting all over again in the Winter!
Hope the end product of my musings isn’t entirely a load of old hooey.
Time will tell.
Best of luck with your team - looks a goody.1 -
Thanks for that @Covered EndCovered End said:
I watched the end of the Virtual a few times and whilst it's neither here nor there, I think they said Alpha & Sub Lieutenant weren't 8th & 9th, but the last 2 home.PeanutsMolloy said:ValleyGary said:Cloth Cap won the virtual. Complete waste of time.
Wow. Who’d have thought?
Cloth Cap
Kimberlite Candy
Any Second Now
Burrows Saint
Minella Times
Lord Du Mesnil
Takingrisks
Alpha Des Obeaux
Sub Lieutenant
Phenomenally boring that the Virtual first 5 are all <16/1 but obviously I’d be more than with 1st 2nd and 5th.
Putting my model to the test, its first 12 home:
Magic Of Light
Discorama
Cloth Cap
Minella Times
Minellacelebration
Kimberlite Candy
Alpha Des Obeaux
Acapella Bourgeois
Give Me A Copper
Vieux Lion Rouge
Any Second Now
Yala Enki
I misheard.
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Looks like there might be a few tears on here if Magic of Light doesn't at least place!1
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I’m picturing peanuts household this morning anticipating what riches 5.30pm today will bring, similar to kids waking up on Xmas morning.
Whatever the outcome, yet another year where this brilliant thread has had me astounded at the knowledge and work that peanuts puts in.
I truly hope the result of the race is the one that brings Peanuts the most profit (as long as that is a Minellacelebration/Discorama 1-2)
Many thanks Peanuts10 -
Cheers @paulbaconsarnie
Greatly appreciate your post.
Glad that you've enjoyed the thread and had the stamina to read all my musings - a top "stayer"
There have been some great contributions and analysis from others on here and many thanks to all who've added their thoughts to the thread.
Always slightly nervous excitement but I am a tad more trepidacious this time cos the change to the model is the most radical I've ever made - the nature of it, as well as the database I'm using.
The database change needed to be done at some point. I was figuring on clocking up maybe 10 races post-2012 but the cancellation last year gave me the time to bite the bullet now and to build a more detailed database re all of the runners, so as to make each test (on paper) more statistically robust.
But, though 276 runners is a nice sample, just 7 GN results makes for a small reference point. So, while I'm very hopeful (and obviously have backed the model with the full deployment of my betting kitty!), I wouldn't be surprised to see an outlier or 2 put a hole in it. Whatever the result, an 8th reference will be very welcome and help evolve the parameters for next time.
At some point over the coming days, if it hasn't been trashed altogether, I'll post a post-mortem as regards the result and model's performance but I'd just like to say now that I am really grateful to everyone for their kind comments and their patience in ploughing through my ramblings.
For those that have followed some or all of them, my fingers are firmly crossed that my model's selections deliver a reasonable return but sincere apologies if they turn out to have been a bum steer.
Whatever selections everyone's backed, I hope they give you at least a fun ride and, above all, that all horses and jocks come back safe and sound.
Best of luck everyone.
8 - Sponsored links:
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bloody hilariousNicholas said:3 -
@PeanutsMolloy For years I have followed your threads and as a "lurker" I never post comments. Just wanted to thank you for the huge effort you go to share your model every year. I have had multiple wins over the years down to you & your research. I've had tons of messages this morning to ask what horses I am on - But always give you credit !! So thanks a lot once again and hope you end the day as a huge winner. Best of luck all!5
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Kind of fancy bryony today on yala.0
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Nicholas said:So funny."He came out clean but he was never the same!"Curbs has a new career in the making.1
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RedBuddha said:@PeanutsMolloy For years I have followed your threads and as a "lurker" I never post comments. Just wanted to thank you for the huge effort you go to share your model every year. I have had multiple wins over the years down to you & your research. I've had tons of messages this morning to ask what horses I am on - But always give you credit !! So thanks a lot once again and hope you end the day as a huge winner. Best of luck all!
Keep your powder dry until 5.30 today. If it goes tits up, Peanuts will be having a visit from H.
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I have followed @PeanutsMolloy recommendations today and my bet slip (paying top 6 places) on Sky Bet has the following selections-:
Cloth Cap 11/2Minella Times @ 9/1
Magic Of Light @ 16/1
Discorama @ 20/1
Kimberlite Candy @ 16/1
Minellacelebration @ 80/1
Mrs RM is going to give me her 'picks' later on.4 -
Been a devil and gone for all 8 of @PeanutsMolloy's tips - leaving a couple of bob for my missus tips of Shattered Love and Give me a Copper.Redmidland said:I have followed @PeanutsMolloy recommendations today and my bet slip (paying top 6 places) on Sky Bet has the following selections-:
Cloth Cap 11/2Minella Times @ 9/1
Magic Of Light @ 16/1
Discorama @ 20/1
Kimberlite Candy @ 16/1
Minellacelebration @ 80/1
Mrs RM is going to give me her 'picks' later on.1 -
Cheers @RedBuddhaRedBuddha said:@PeanutsMolloy For years I have followed your threads and as a "lurker" I never post comments. Just wanted to thank you for the huge effort you go to share your model every year. I have had multiple wins over the years down to you & your research. I've had tons of messages this morning to ask what horses I am on - But always give you credit !! So thanks a lot once again and hope you end the day as a huge winner. Best of luck all!
You're very kind. I'm glad there's a reserve to draw on ......... but don't worry about mentioning me to those acquaintances of yours .........
all the best
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Bit of a surprise.
Paddy Power spokesman Paul Binfield said: “Definitly Red is the worst result in our book at the moment“
Been backed into 40s from 66/1 this morning.
Takingrisks continues to be popular. Into14s.
33s not too shabby @ISawLeaburnScore
Nice one.
Mister Malarky in to 16s and nibbles for Acapella Bourgeois, Talkischeap and Give Me A Copper0 - Sponsored links:
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Takingrisks and got on before the price shortened drastically!!1
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Gone with;
Cloth Cap 11-2
Discorama 16-1
Alpha DE Obeaux 80-1
Fardas 22-1
Magic of Light 14-1
Kimberlite Candy 16-1
Chriss Dream 50-1 (my sons name is Chris)
Don't normally do this many but found some money in my PP account from last year !1 -
Best of luck to you @PeanutsMolloy and thanks for everything, this has grown to be so many people’s favourite aspect of this community over the years.
I’ve avoided Cloth Cap at the price so hope that tanks but you clean up on the others. Minellacelebration would most certainly bring some celebration!5 -
Thanks for your usual excellent National thread, gone for Minella Times and Kimberlite Candy.0
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Alpha des Obeaux at 50/1
Discorama at 25/1
Minellacelebration at 80/1
waiting for the wife, kids and mother in law to choose theirs. Hopefully they pick some of peanuts other choices !0 -
It's official folks. Cloth Cap's the winnerAFKABartram said:Best of luck to you @PeanutsMolloy and thanks for everything, this has grown to be so many people’s favourite aspect of this community over the years.
I’ve avoided Cloth Cap at the price so hope that tanks but you clean up on the others. Minellacelebration would most certainly bring some celebration!
Cheers @AFKABartram
Fingers crossed.2 -
I'm on all 8 of Peanut's selections.
I'd avoided Cloth Cap but decided he was bound to win if he was the only one I hadn't backed.1 -
Discorama, Minellacelebration, Vieux Lion Rouge, Kimberlite Candy all e/w1
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No clue on how to select horses. Definitely Red for Charlton gives some insight into my methods. Gone with;
Definitely Red
Blaklion
Canelo
Minella Times
Shattered Love
Magic of Light
Minellacelebration
Missus picked;
Taking Risks 14
Mister Malarkey 18
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I guess the name must appeal to the public?PeanutsMolloy said:Bit of a surprise.
Paddy Power spokesman Paul Binfield said: “Definitly Red is the worst result in our book at the moment“
Been backed into 40s from 66/1 this morning.
Takingrisks continues to be popular. Into14s.
33s not too shabby @ISawLeaburnScore
Nice one.
Mister Malarky in to 16s and nibbles for Acapella Bourgeois, Talkischeap and Give Me A Copper
I thought he was a good each way poke at 40 or 33 but one firm have put him down to 12/1 now!
His last race was 40/1 in a 13 runner handicap at Doncaster - admittedly he won and beat a goodun but the price is down to a level I'm now tempted to lay back on!1
