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Grand National 2021

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  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
    edited April 2021
    johnnybev1987 said:
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    A wee dabble, just to have an e/w interest in the Topham today - Robin Des Foret (28/1, 5 places).
    Good form over 21~24f vs Any Second Now and Burrows Saint in the last 2 years.
    Can be inconsistent but trip perfect and should love the ground.
    First time over the fences - if he takes to them and is on a going-day, could be in biz at a worthwhile price.
    extra place you can get for 20/1 on 365 peanut. 
    Thanks @johnnybev1987
     indeed, You pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
    I suspect he either goes close or is nowhere. That’s nailed him on for 6th.  :)
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,842
    Morning Vicar in the Topham.
  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
    You made me do a lucky 31, well itv7 did which i rarely do: 
    Houx Gris
    Chantry House
    Fakir D O 
    Livelovelaugh
    Streets of Doyen

    just a punt really, i did go ew on the one peanuts recommended as i backed last week aswell, ITV7 i have Rachel Blackmore in the last not Streets of D
  • O-Randy-Hunt
    O-Randy-Hunt Posts: 10,633
    O-Randy-Hunt said:
    Havent used bet365 for a while and cant do the know your customer verification. It just says your account is verified and step 2 complete but when I try to add funds it says I need to verify my account for feck sake.
    All sorted. Nothing that a little bit of live chat couldn't out. Lets win some wonga!
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
    edited April 2021
    bobmunro said:
    Morning Vicar in the Topham.
    Like the cut of his jib Bob - and, for the mission, better pilot on board than his regular (IMHO).
    On the slip.
    Cheers. 
  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    bobmunro said:
    Morning Vicar in the Topham.
    Like the cut of his jib Bob - and, for the mission, better pilot on board than his regular (IMHO).
    On the slip.
    Cheers. 
    Bobmunro: *evil laugh 
  • Lincsaddick
    Lincsaddick Posts: 32,345
    got to be Live Love Laugh in the Topham .. I'm looking for a double with Red Red Robin  :) .. also Mister Coffey, Ajero, Politilogue 
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 51,982
    Racing has been switched to ITV4.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
    Sadly for connections and supporters of Some Neck and Secret Reprieve, none of the 40 scratched before the 1pm deadline.
    Not to be this year.
  • ValleyGary
    ValleyGary Posts: 37,973
    People spreading rumours that tomorrow will be cancelled cos Prince Philip has died. Not quite sure what the connection is there!
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  • Boom
    Boom Posts: 1,679


    Cracking stuff as always Peanuts.

    Out of interest, how many horses have you backed for the GN? Presumably all your picks and a couple of other cheeky punts?

  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 51,982
    ValleyGary said:
    People spreading rumours that tomorrow will be cancelled cos Prince Philip has died. Not quite sure what the connection is there!
    I'm not expecting it, but there are discussions about all sport being cancelled (didn't say when specifically).
  • blackpool72
    blackpool72 Posts: 23,667
    Covered End said:
    ValleyGary said:
    People spreading rumours that tomorrow will be cancelled cos Prince Philip has died. Not quite sure what the connection is there!
    I'm not expecting it, but there are discussions about all sport being cancelled (didn't say when specifically).
    My guess it will be on the day of his funeral 
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    blackpool72 said:
    Covered End said:
    ValleyGary said:
    People spreading rumours that tomorrow will be cancelled cos Prince Philip has died. Not quite sure what the connection is there!
    I'm not expecting it, but there are discussions about all sport being cancelled (didn't say when specifically).
    My guess it will be on the day of his funeral 
    Agreed. Could have seen it today/tomorrow if it was Royal Ascot rather than Grand National but can't see any sport being cancelled at the moment. 
  • Lincsaddick
    Lincsaddick Posts: 32,345
    the Irish are still winning ((:>)
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    got my 4 for the big one

    bristol de mai
    definately red
    acapella beorgois
    anniable fly

    all small money ew. 6 places
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,757
    johnnybev1987 said:
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    A wee dabble, just to have an e/w interest in the Topham today - Robin Des Foret (28/1, 5 places).
    Good form over 21~24f vs Any Second Now and Burrows Saint in the last 2 years.
    Can be inconsistent but trip perfect and should love the ground.
    First time over the fences - if he takes to them and is on a going-day, could be in biz at a worthwhile price.
    extra place you can get for 20/1 on 365 peanut. 
    33/1 6 places now available on Betfair Sportsbook.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
    edited April 2021
    Boom said:


    Cracking stuff as always Peanuts.

    Out of interest, how many horses have you backed for the GN? Presumably all your picks and a couple of other cheeky punts?

    Cheers @Boom
    You're very kind. Glad you've enjoyed it. 
    You're right - as I managed to get them early at high prices, I've been able to back all 7 best-rated by my model and did add a couple of potential "black swans" (Some Neck, now refunded of course, and availing myself of Bob's kind 50%-refund, Farclas effectively at 40s)
    Used the money back on Some Neck to do some switching, now giving me 7 places on Minellacelebration and Alpha Des Obeaux, (5 places on all the others) so at least the possibility/dream of a clean sweep's alive.
    So, I'm on:

    Model's top winning candidates: 
    • Magic Of Light 
    • Discorama
    • Cloth Cap
    Next best:
    • Kimberlite Candy
    • Minella Times
    • Minellacelebration (7 pl)
    • Alpha Des Obeaux (7 pl)
    "Black Swan": Farclas

    The book doesn't aim to shoot the lights out but deliver another year of profit (has done so, while always in evolution, 12 of last 14 years) but when the model picks out  3 clear top-rated and a 100/1 and a 80/1 shot as live chances, got to have a "jackpot" play or two. So, I've also got
    • a few tricasts (the top-3 rated by the model and then each of the long-shots MinellaC and Alpha paired with all possible pairs from the top 3 rated)
    • a slug of wild prices hoovered up on the exchanges for Minellacelebration to win
    Dom Perignon all round if he does ......... if I haven't had a cardiac arrest riding him home from the elbow   :)

    Hope yours do well for you Boom

    Best of luck.

  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    edited April 2021
    Mixed emotions if Morning Vicar goes in here. Will win 3 figures but that fall from David Bass might have cost me about 6 grand!
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
    Virtual GN on the box at 8pm.
    Every winner of it to date has previously won at 4m+ and I reckon they'll call it for Scottish GN winner Takingrisks.

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  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    Boom said:


    Cracking stuff as always Peanuts.

    Out of interest, how many horses have you backed for the GN? Presumably all your picks and a couple of other cheeky punts?

    Yes thanks Peanuts, fantastic insight. Not sure I'm very lucky for you as I read this thread every year and haven't done particularly well on your picks that I chose to go with. Not blaming you, I just seem to pick the wrong ones. 

    This year I have taken your advice on Discorama, Minellallacelebration and Magic of Light (already a fan admittedly). Farclas, Definitely Red and Yala Enki (owes me nothing from the last few years) complete my line up. 
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    johnnybev1987 said:
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    A wee dabble, just to have an e/w interest in the Topham today - Robin Des Foret (28/1, 5 places).
    Good form over 21~24f vs Any Second Now and Burrows Saint in the last 2 years.
    Can be inconsistent but trip perfect and should love the ground.
    First time over the fences - if he takes to them and is on a going-day, could be in biz at a worthwhile price.
    extra place you can get for 20/1 on 365 peanut. 
    Thanks @johnnybev1987
     indeed, You pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
    I suspect he either goes close or is nowhere. That’s nailed him on for 6th.  :)
    and so it was.... brave Sir Robin took one look at the fences and shat himself
  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    johnnybev1987 said:
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    A wee dabble, just to have an e/w interest in the Topham today - Robin Des Foret (28/1, 5 places).
    Good form over 21~24f vs Any Second Now and Burrows Saint in the last 2 years.
    Can be inconsistent but trip perfect and should love the ground.
    First time over the fences - if he takes to them and is on a going-day, could be in biz at a worthwhile price.
    extra place you can get for 20/1 on 365 peanut. 
    Thanks @johnnybev1987
     indeed, You pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
    I suspect he either goes close or is nowhere. That’s nailed him on for 6th.  :)
    and so it was.... brave Sir Robin took one look at the fences and shat himself
    i had the winner in my lucky 31 so not too dissapointed, 3/4(wins) so far so a win or place in the last would be ok 
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Boom said:


    Cracking stuff as always Peanuts.

    Out of interest, how many horses have you backed for the GN? Presumably all your picks and a couple of other cheeky punts?

    Yes thanks Peanuts, fantastic insight. Not sure I'm very lucky for you as I read this thread every year and haven't done particularly well on your picks that I chose to go with. Not blaming you, I just seem to pick the wrong ones. 

    This year I have taken your advice on Discorama, Minellallacelebration and Magic of Light (already a fan admittedly). Farclas, Definitely Red and Yala Enki (owes me nothing from the last few years) complete my line up. 
    Cheers @cafcfan1990
    Really appreciate your comment and confidence.
    The model has struggled to adapt to the changed character of the race post 2012 (won't bore you with the whys and wherefores) - it's done OK but not as consistent as previously. Having made the leap this year to using only data from 2013 for the first time, obviously I'm really hoping it will be a bit more on the money.
    If I could only have 3 running for me, on this ground, it would be Discorama and Magic for the best chances (certainly at the best value) and Minellacelebration for the craic, as they say. 
    Fingers crossed.

  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
    johnnybev1987 said:
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    johnnybev1987 said:
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    A wee dabble, just to have an e/w interest in the Topham today - Robin Des Foret (28/1, 5 places).
    Good form over 21~24f vs Any Second Now and Burrows Saint in the last 2 years.
    Can be inconsistent but trip perfect and should love the ground.
    First time over the fences - if he takes to them and is on a going-day, could be in biz at a worthwhile price.
    extra place you can get for 20/1 on 365 peanut. 
    Thanks @johnnybev1987
     indeed, You pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
    I suspect he either goes close or is nowhere. That’s nailed him on for 6th.  :)
    and so it was.... brave Sir Robin took one look at the fences and shat himself
    i had the winner in my lucky 31 so not too dissapointed, 3/4(wins) so far so a win or place in the last would be ok 
    near miss 4th in the last one, ew was top 3 :( blaming @bobmunro as sky were doing top 4 rubbish ;)
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Boom said:


    Cracking stuff as always Peanuts.

    Out of interest, how many horses have you backed for the GN? Presumably all your picks and a couple of other cheeky punts?

    Yes thanks Peanuts, fantastic insight. Not sure I'm very lucky for you as I read this thread every year and haven't done particularly well on your picks that I chose to go with. Not blaming you, I just seem to pick the wrong ones. 

    This year I have taken your advice on Discorama, Minellallacelebration and Magic of Light (already a fan admittedly). Farclas, Definitely Red and Yala Enki (owes me nothing from the last few years) complete my line up. 
    Cheers @cafcfan1990
    Really appreciate your comment and confidence.
    The model has struggled to adapt to the changed character of the race post 2012 (won't bore you with the whys and wherefores) - it's done OK but not as consistent as previously. Having made the leap this year to using only data from 2013 for the first time, obviously I'm really hoping it will be a bit more on the money.
    If I could only have 3 running for me, on this ground, it would be Discorama and Magic for the best chances (certainly at the best value) and Minellacelebration for the craic, as they say. 
    Fingers crossed.

    Well best of luck, I'm sure you'll get a few places and a few pints owed!

    I always pick a couple at crazy odds, you swung it with Minellacelebration for me. 

    Stating the obvious but think Cloth Cap is perfectly handicapped and do feel it wins if it goes round. No value in picking a horse at 5/1 in the National for obvious reasons but could see it winning very comfortably. 
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 51,982
    Covered End said:
    I'm on Minella Times, Kimberlite Candy, Discorama, Magic of Light, Forclas, Some Neck, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minellacelebration.
    Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places.
    What could possibly go wrong?

    Thanks Peanuts.
    I've added Cloth Cap to win in place of Some Neck.
  • clb74
    clb74 Posts: 10,824
    Covered End said:
    Covered End said:
    I'm on Minella Times, Kimberlite Candy, Discorama, Magic of Light, Forclas, Some Neck, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minellacelebration.
    Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places.
    What could possibly go wrong?

    Thanks Peanuts.
    I've added Cloth Cap to win in place of Some Neck.
    You've done the field then Covered?
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 51,982
    clb74 said:
    Covered End said:
    Covered End said:
    I'm on Minella Times, Kimberlite Candy, Discorama, Magic of Light, Forclas, Some Neck, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minellacelebration.
    Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places.
    What could possibly go wrong?

    Thanks Peanuts.
    I've added Cloth Cap to win in place of Some Neck.
    You've done the field then Covered?
    Only 8, what could possibly go wrong?
  • ValleyGary
    ValleyGary Posts: 37,973
    Cloth Cap won the virtual. Complete waste of time.

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