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Grand National 2021

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  • blackpool72
    blackpool72 Posts: 23,667
    AFKABartram said:
    F*ck you Bob. Straight to the top of the mod Watch List 
    There's a mod watch list.
    Glad I'm not on it 😁
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,842
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    bobmunro said:
    AFKABartram said:
    F*ck you Bob. Straight to the top of the mod Watch List 

    We do the same offer every year!!
    He waits, finger hovering over button, till you've placed your bets @AFKABartram


    Not true - I allow a discrete amount of time after AFKA has placed his bets before hitting the button. It would be too obvious otherwise!
  • Athletico Charlton
    Athletico Charlton Posts: 14,273
    So I am better cashing out my 100/1 Minellacelebration e/w bet and placing the same amount at 80/1 then replacing all the 50% refunds on the same horse until I get down to a few pennies as overall I would get a better return I think?
  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
    Athletico Charlton said:
    So I am better cashing out my 100/1 Minellacelebration e/w bet and placing the same amount at 80/1 then replacing all the 50% refunds on the same horse until I get down to a few pennies as overall I would get a better return I think?
    yeah i am guessing i might aswell do this, seems a bit silly any existing ones aren't applied the same way. Maybe its not possible, but a right ball ache, i am sure there are the reasons eg. declared runners etc
  • Redmidland
    Redmidland Posts: 44,700
    My selections for todays Aintree runners-

    14.20 - Adagio 5/4
    14.50 - Waiting Patiently 10/3
    15.05 - Flanagans Field 15/2
    15.25 - McFabulous 11/2
    16.05 - Cat Tiger 13/2
    16.40 - Getaway Trump 8/1

    Done them as e/w doubles and an e/w acca.



    • PeanutsMolloy
      PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
      edited April 2021
      Just to emphasise one statlet that many are already aware of.

      In the last 4 GNs, Irish-trained runners have represented 38% of the total fields.
      But, they've contributed 3 of the 4 winners of course and 65% of the horses finishing 1~5.

      In the last 2 GNs, only 2 non-Irish trained runners made the first 5 home (closest being 4th).

      Coming on the back of the Irish supremacy at Cheltenham, if you're weighing alternative last minute fancies, it might be worth bearing that in mind.
    • Addick Addict
      Addick Addict Posts: 39,761
      PeanutsMolloy said:
      Just to emphasise one statlet that many are already aware of.

      In the last 4 GNs, Irish-trained runners have represented 38% of the total fields.
      But, they've contributed 3 of the 4 winners of course and 65% of the horses finishing 1~5.

      In the last 2 GNs, only 2 non-Irish trained runners made the first 5 home (closest being 4th).

      Coming on the back of the Irish supremacy at Cheltenham, if you're weighing alternative last minute fancies, it might be worth bearing that in mind.

      To think certain individuals think Irish horses are badly handicapped when they come over. But, more to the point, others actually listen to them and put in print the garbage spouted by them!
    • ISawLeaburnScore
      ISawLeaburnScore Posts: 9,779
      Looks like The Storyteller could be coming out... Lay price on Betfair has hit 60
    • mid_life_crisis
      mid_life_crisis Posts: 3,263
      ISawLeaburnScore said:
      bobmunro said:
      Covered End said:
      Alwaysneil said:
      did I see somewhere that Betfred are offering e/W 8 places for bets placed tomorrow and Friday? 
      I've not seen that anywhere & it's not advertised, not that they would advertise it as no one would place any bets today.
      I don't recall anyone paying 8 places, usually 7 is the max.
      Nobody beats the bet365 offer!!
      Anyone who allows me 66p or over will!
      Bet365 (if you're a mug)
      Bet£3.65 (if there's a chance you ever look like you might show a small profit)

    • PeanutsMolloy
      PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
      edited April 2021
      Hot-jock Jody McGarvey gets the leg up on Alpha Des Obeaux 
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    • ISawLeaburnScore
      ISawLeaburnScore Posts: 9,779
      ISawLeaburnScore said:
      Looks like The Storyteller could be coming out... Lay price on Betfair has hit 60
      The Storyteller is indeed out. More inside info layers. Blaklion in.
    • Valiantphil
      Valiantphil Posts: 6,409
      @PeanutsMolloy

      can we have a short summary of your picks please ?
    • RobinKeepsBobbin
      RobinKeepsBobbin Posts: 154
      I backed Canelo at 109/1 and Shattered Love at 94/1 and part layed them for no loss if they lose and a few hundred pounds if they win. My main bet is Magic of Light each way and i couldn't resist Peanuts Minellacellebration each way.
    • Lincsaddick
      Lincsaddick Posts: 32,345
      PeanutsMolloy said:
      Just to emphasise one statlet that many are already aware of.

      In the last 4 GNs, Irish-trained runners have represented 38% of the total fields.
      But, they've contributed 3 of the 4 winners of course and 65% of the horses finishing 1~5.

      In the last 2 GNs, only 2 non-Irish trained runners made the first 5 home (closest being 4th).

      Coming on the back of the Irish supremacy at Cheltenham, if you're weighing alternative last minute fancies, it might be worth bearing that in mind.
      that's why this year I am only backing Irish

      TODAY ? .. Nostalgic & hopeful ;.. Buveur D'Air & Tiger Roll e/w double  B)
    • PeanutsMolloy
      PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
      edited April 2021
      Valiantphil said:
      @PeanutsMolloy

      can we have a short summary of your picks please ?
      Ratings-wise, the model's top selections are:

      Top-rated (best fit with winners/near-missers since 2013):

      ·         Magic Of Light

      ·         Discorama  

      ·         Cloth Cap (drier the better)

      Next best (identical stat-scores):

      ·         Minellacelebration  

      ·         Kimberlite Candy (more juice in the ground the better)

      ·         Minella Times

      ·         Alpha Des Obeaux

      I've backed all these early-ish at average odds of just over 50/1 - the average now is more like 32/1 though Bob's kind offer can mitigate the drop.

      I've also added 2 potential "black swans" (i.e. stat-outliers) Some Neck (50/1 NRNB 6 places) and Farclas (effectively 40/1 with Bet365 offer).
      So quite a big team but the odds available when I backed them enabled that and I'm obviously aiming for a winner and a couple places among them - hoping for a clean-sweep naturally  :):smile:
      I need 2 places to breakeven. 

      All the individual CV summaries (all but Farclas) are over the last few pages - can be picked out fairly easily.
    • dmjn
      dmjn Posts: 226
      @PeanutsMolloy I presume we're talking early doors Saturday for your final selections? Thanks as ever for my favourite thread of the year
    • johnnybev1987
      johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
      How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now. 
    • AllHailTheHen
      AllHailTheHen Posts: 3,063
      ISawLeaburnScore said:
      ISawLeaburnScore said:
      Looks like The Storyteller could be coming out... Lay price on Betfair has hit 60
      The Storyteller is indeed out. More inside info layers. Blaklion in.
      Excellent news. I used to play for a team called Black Lion so that's my bet done. I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing 
    • PeanutsMolloy
      PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
      edited April 2021
      dmjn said:
      @PeanutsMolloy I presume we're talking early doors Saturday for your final selections? Thanks as ever for my favourite thread of the year
      The ones above are they @dmjn unless the heavens open - not forecast.
      Glad you've enjoyed the thread and hope your choices (and mine!) bring home the bacon.
    • Callumcafc
      Callumcafc Posts: 63,757
      edited April 2021
      Redmidland said:
      My selections for todays Aintree runners-

      14.20 - Adagio 5/4
      14.50 - Waiting Patiently 10/3
      15.05 - Flanagans Field 15/2
      15.25 - McFabulous 11/2
      16.05 - Cat Tiger 13/2
      16.40 - Getaway Trump 8/1

      Done them as e/w doubles and an e/w acca.



        My own fancies for Aintree day 1:

        13:45 - Fusil Raffles 3/1
        14:20 - Adagio 11/8
        14:50 - Clondaw Castle 6/1
        15:25 - Silver Streak 16/1 EW
        16:05 - Sametegal 13/2. Tango De Juilley 20/1 EW
        16:40 - Gaelik Coast 20/1 EW, Editeur De Gite 10/1 EW
        17:15 - Elle Est Belle 3/1
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      • dmjn
        dmjn Posts: 226
        PeanutsMolloy said:
        dmjn said:
        @PeanutsMolloy I presume we're talking early doors Saturday for your final selections? Thanks as ever for my favourite thread of the year
        The ones above are they @dmjn unless the heavens open - not forecast.
        Glad you've enjoyed the thread and hope your choices (and mine!) bring home the bacon.
        Your choices are my choices for the past 5 or 6 years 
      • RobinKeepsBobbin
        RobinKeepsBobbin Posts: 154
        johnnybev1987 said:
        How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now. 
        He was nowhere near the top 40. He couldn't possibly have got in with such a low weight.
      • Addick Addict
        Addick Addict Posts: 39,761
        johnnybev1987 said:
        How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now. 
        The horse shouldn't be available to back with any bookmaker. 
      • RobinKeepsBobbin
        RobinKeepsBobbin Posts: 154
        Addick Addict said:
        johnnybev1987 said:
        How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now. 
        The horse shouldn't be available to back with any bookmaker. 
        It is a marketing trick. They let you bet on anything. They know they will have to refund you but most people will use the refund to bet on something else instead of withdrawing it.
      • Covered End
        Covered End Posts: 51,989
        edited April 2021
        Betfred doing 8 places 1/5 odds.
        Alwaysneil called it.
      • johnnybev1987
        johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
        edited April 2021
        RobinKeepsBobbin said:
        johnnybev1987 said:
        How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now. 
        He was nowhere near the top 40. He couldn't possibly have got in with such a low weight.
        Addick Addict said:
        johnnybev1987 said:
        How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now. 
        The horse shouldn't be available to back with any bookmaker. 
        Thanks guys, i did find it odd it was still available so didn't want to strike off when i put all my bets back on due to the Bet365 offer. 

        Edit its voided now.... 
      • Covered End
        Covered End Posts: 51,989
        I'm on Minella Times, Kimberlite Candy, Discorama, Magic of Light, Forclas, Some Neck, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minellacelebration.
        Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places.
        What could possibly go wrong?

        Thanks Peanuts.
      • Lincsaddick
        Lincsaddick Posts: 32,345
        so far .. 
         Acapella Bourgeois and Burrows Saint for me .. both Wily Willy Mullins trained and with Mullins' kin doing the steering ..
         Lake View Lad at BIG odds is a tempter .. he rarely falls and has unsung champ Brian Hughes on board .. thing is he's now 11 and as slow as a turtle .. perhaps £1 e/w

      • PeanutsMolloy
        PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
        Covered End said:
        I'm on Minella Times, Kimberlite Candy, Discorama, Magic of Light, Forclas, Some Neck, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minellacelebration.
        Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places.
        What could possibly go wrong?

        Thanks Peanuts.

        Best keep the thanks in reserve till 5.25 on Saturday. Thanks for your vote of confidence - much appreciated.
        Fingers crossed.
      • Alwaysneil
        Alwaysneil Posts: 13,805
        If Minellacelebration wins, the drinks are on me.

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