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greatest show on turf Cheltenham 2021
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Start looking ahead to Cheltenham.Use a website likewww.thestatsdontlie.com and look at their Cheltenham Festival section. It gives you all the stats for the winners from the last 12 years and what to look out for and what to avoid.Very handy7
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My week's hotpots - probably best to ignore!
Tuesday
Ultima - Lieutenant Rocco
Thursday
Pertemps - Bosses Oscar
Stayers - Bachasson (ew)
Friday
Triumph - Zanahiyr
County - Eclair de Beaufeu
Albert Bartlett - Stattler (backed at 12s)
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I only use trends for the Festival and also only use my own I’ve built up over the years to help whittle down the fields.I update mine each year and only use ones that have found the winner of each race every year for the past ten years,as soon as a trend is broken I drop it until it builds up to another ten consecutive years.Two races this year don’t yet have enough trends so the Mares hurdle is past five years and obviously none for the new race this year.I will list each race for you and they me be of some help or no help whatsoever?
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DAY ONE..........
SUPREME
Two hurdle runs or more
Rated 142+
No headgear
ARKLE
Won last time out
6-8 year old
ULTIMA
Top 6 last time out
Won over 3 mile +
10 or less handicap races
Ran in a Grade One or Two race
Must of had a hurdles win
No P.Nichols runners
CHAMPION HURDLE
Rated 157+
Ran in previous 77 days
9 year old or younger
MARES HURDLE
Rated 142+
Within 12lbs of top rated
Top 4 in the betting
No British bred
No headgear
No ex flat horse
BOODLES
Non handicap last run
Rated under 140
No W.Mullins,P.Hobbs or V.Williams runners
No previous Cheltenham run
Weight range 10st 6lbs-11st 8lbs
No British bred
Hurdle debut after Nov 20th previous year
NH CHASE
Rated 127+
Within 14lbs of top rated
Last race 2m4f-3m2f
No P.Nichols or N.Henderson runners
16/1 or shorter4 -
DAY TWO........
BALLYMORE
5 or 6 year old
Rated 142+
27+ days since last ran
2-4 hurdle races
Top 2 last race
Won a bumper
FESTIVAL CHASE
6-8 year old
Rated 150+
2-5 chase races
Hurdles win and less than 10 hurdle races
Ran in a graded novice chase
Chase debut previous year
No mares
No headgear
CORAL
No 40/1+
No bottom weight
No graded race winners
No novice race last time out
No chase run last time out
CHAMPION CHASE
7-10 year old
Last race a Grade 1 or 2
Rated 159+
Last race 32-95 days
No W.Mullins runners
CROSS COUNTRY
8 year old plus
No W.Mullins or P.Nichols runners
GRAND ANNUAL
10 year old and under
Rated 138+
Had a Grade 1 run
No more than 8 career wins
25+ days since last run
BUMPER
5-6 year old
Rated 118+
Won last race and by a length or more3 -
DAY THREE........
MARSH
Last race in graded company
31-80 days since last run
2-5 chase races
Rated 144+
Within 14lbs of top rated
8 year old or younger
PERTEMPS
No graded or listed race last time
3 or less handicap wins
2 or less hurdle wins
Rated 138+
No bottom weight
Last race not at Cheltenham
RYANAIR
7-10 year old
Rated 161+
Last race in grade 1 or 2
4 or less runs this season
No Festival debut
STAYERS
6-9 year old
Last race graded company
46+ days since last race
No headgear
FESTIVAL PLATE
11st 4lbs or less
Rated 130-149
Last race a chase
Must of had a top 2 finish within its last 3 races
MARES HURDLE
5-6 year old
Top 3 last time out
KIM MUIR
Rated 134-143
No French bred
11st 4lbs plus
2-6 runs that season
2 or less chase wins
No 3-5lb claimers3 -
DAY FOUR...........
TRIUMPH
Top 4 last race
Last race 18-48 days
Rated 140+
COUNTY
5,6 and 8 year old (no 7yo)
5 or less career wins
2 or less handicap wins
No 5-7lb claimers
ALBERT BARTLETT
2m4f-3m last race
No more than 2 grade 1 runs
25+ days since last race
GOLD CUP
Grade 1 winner
9 year old or younger
FOXHUNTERS and MARES CHASE
No 10 year trends
MARTIN PIPE
7 year old or younger
Rated 133+
No more than 2 wins that season
No Class 2 last race
33/1 or under
Ran within the last 90 days
Must of had at least one race that season
11st 1lbs +3 -
Two strong trends that have occurred just the last five years maybe worth considering if the previous posts have bored you senseless or you don’t want to go through that lot are as follows........
20+ of the 28 races each festival for past five years have been won by the following trainers so you just may want to concentrate on them?
W.Mullins
Denise Foster (scumbag elliott)
N.Henderson
P.Nicholls
D.Skelton
J.Harrington
C.Tizzard
P.Hobbs
J.O Brien
Also in the handicap races only if you had backed the top 6 in betting blind you would of made a profit with a 70%+ strike rate over the past five years
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If it’s of use to anyone, I’ve spent a fair bit of time building this website for a client: https://www.racingpost.com/cheltenham-festival/
I’m not a racing fan so the content means nothing to me, but there’s been a lot of effort put into it so I’m sure it’s of some use2 -
Tuesday, Supreme Novice Hurdle..... very strong fancy for Metier.0
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Aye Right, Ultima. Got on at 16s. Now 12.
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Energumeme out of Chelts0
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finalised my picks for the tuesday.
1.20 ballyadam ( ante post 20/1 )
1.55 shishkin ( ante post 6/1 )
2.30 happygolucky 8/1
3.05 goshen ( ante post 6/1 )
3.40 black tears ew
4.15 glorious zoff
4.50 royalle perguille ( on at 11/4 nrnb likely going gold cup ) snow leopardess 33/1 ew3 -
Surely almost all prices will shorten the closer we get to the off ?0
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Thyme hill about to be pulled out
drifted to 16/1 on the exchanges and now market is taken down0 -
I'm with you on the first three (unfortunately nowhere near that price for Shishkin though, he's in a couple of accas around evens, so this morning's news is good for me but leaves a slightly disappointing taste), but have Happygolucky at 25s and refreshed at 14s. That's probably my favourite play of the festival if it comes off (touch wood).palarsehater said:finalised my picks for the tuesday.
1.20 ballyadam ( ante post 20/1 )
1.55 shishkin ( ante post 6/1 )
2.30 happygolucky 8/1
3.05 goshen ( ante post 6/1 )
3.40 black tears ew
4.15 glorious zoff
4.50 royalle perguille ( on at 11/4 nrnb likely going gold cup ) snow leopardess 33/1 ew
I probably will just have a watch of the Champion Hurdle. That's gonna be a great race.
I have Black Tears too (25s e/w) so hope she can run a big race.
For the Boodles I have small plays on Houx Gris, Homme Public and Busselton all at comfortably longer odds than they currently are. Never had much luck in it so nothing more than those.
NHC I'll wait til the day.0 -
Just a minor point but I cannot, for the life of me, comprehend why they appear to be intent on debuting Le Breuil in the XC on Wednesday at level weights (thus, badly off with half the field and 2 stone badly off with the 2 market favs), rather than going to Uttoxeter for the Midlands Grand National 3 days later, for a trip and likely ground that plays much more to his (certainly to my eye, evident) needs, and in which he's highly likely to be shouldering less than 11 stone (10.05 if Yala Enki runs).
WTF?0 -
Some will but certainly not all and it all depends at what point you back your selection.Lincsaddick said:Surely almost all prices will shorten the closer we get to the off ?
Currently most bookmakers are offering "non runner, no bet" (but not best odds guaranteed) so they have to build a bigger margin for themselves. Appreciate It, for example, is best price 11/8 with the bookies but is available at 2.76 (7/4 on Betfair). A non runner in the Betfair book would, of course, mean a loser for backers.
On the morning of each day all the bookies will be competing for punters' business so they will be happier to sacrifice a bit of their margin for greater turnover. Of course, the SP will be less generous because bookies won't want the morning backers to be able to avail themselves of that best odds guaranteed concession, particularly for those runners that are at the front of the market and they want to take advantage of punters who are backing late not being quite so price sensitive as those who went in earlier.
The Grand National is a classic example of this where the bookmakers SP over round is usually something that Dick Turpin would have been proud of!!!!
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Heads up - Escaria Ten definitely goes NHC. Exchanges suggest as such but I've had definitive confirmation0
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Less is more but, sadly, as in many other sports that axiom is alien to the numbnuts in charge.
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theyve been pushing for a tues - saturday festival for years - supreme in years not so long ago theyve paid 7 places this year theres 8 runners!
quite a few of the races could be binned tbh.0 -
palarsehater said:theyve been pushing for a tues - saturday festival for years - supreme in years not so long ago theyve paid 7 places this year theres 8 runners!
quite a few of the races could be binned tbh.Back to a 3 day meeting - that was more than enough.The Grand National off at 3.45!Royal Ascot - Tues-Fri - Saturday is the Heath meeting!Oh and The Derby back to the first Wednesday in June, thank you very much!(maybe I'm getting old!)4 -
dont see the royale perguille going for gold cup myself - no chance of winning.0
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Colin Tizzard has said that this will be his last festival, he's soon to be 65 and has had enough. Joe will take over the licence. It seems a very sad situation. Tizzard has had a poor season by his standards and it seems that the death of his daughter has affected him deeply. I've always had a soft spot for Colin, obviously a tough ol boy but he always seems honest and unassuming. He'll be missed2
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R P has been declared for the Gold Cup (BBC this midday)palarsehater said:dont see the royale perguille going for gold cup myself - no chance of winning.0 -
Bloody Typical I never ever call it right Ante Post... was 9/4 when pulled out. 0
