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Grand National 2020

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  • Alwaysneil
    Alwaysneil Posts: 13,805
    edited March 2020
    So is it  right  that if I had placed a few bets in the grand national and now it’s cancelled/postponed, the betting companies keep all the money I placed? 

    I have a couple of online accounts that I use infrequently but had placed a decent amount on the National with bet365 and paddy power and neither are showing live bets, nor are they crediting the Kinsey so I can take it out,

    @bobmunro is this a timing thing or how does it work?
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,705
    Obviously I'm a firm believer that an algorithm can work well in the Grand National - albeit no model is a crystal ball.

    I won't be betting on how ITV's calls it (and certainly won't be tweaking my model as a result) but, for what it's worth and with the ground presumably drying up to be Good to Soft, these would have been my model's ratings and my 6 e/w bets:

    Winning Calibre (equal rating):
    • Elegant Escape
    • Magic Of Light
    • Kimberlite Candy
    Strong Place Potential (equal rating):
    • Anibale Fly
    • Yala Enki
    • Ramses De Teillee
    Next Best (equal rating):
    • Ballyoptic 
    • Any Second Now
    Enjoy the "race" folks.
  • ValleyGary
    ValleyGary Posts: 37,973
    The company doing the simulation are saying it will be pre-recorded and the result won’t get leaked, however I can’t see the bookies being too pleased if Tiger Roll wins it.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,705
    edited April 2020

    Err. So, here's the 40 runners so far as ITV's Virtual GN is concerned, chopped off as the top 40 in the weights still entered when the meeting was abandoned (just prior to the 2nd forfeit stage)

    That doesn't include #44 One For Arthur. OK, you've got to cut it off somewhere but oddly it does include 2 runners Peregrine Run and Death Duty - both runners who were not qualified to run (and had little hope of being so when the race was scrapped), having never run in a 3m+ chase, let alone fulfilled the requirement to finish in the first 4 in such a race.

     :/ 


    Virtual Grand National 2020: the full list of the 40 runners, riders and odds

    Number, name, jockey, odds, weight

    1 Tiger Roll, Davy Russell, 5-1, 11-10
    2 Bristol De Mai, Daryl Jacob, 20-1, 11-8
    3 Aso, Charlie Deutsch, 66-1, 11-2
    4 Elegant Escape, Jonjo O'Neill jnr, 20-1, 11-2
    5 Anibale Fly, Barry Geraghty, 20-1, 11-2
    6 Top Ville Ben, Tom Dowson, 45-1, 11-2
    7 Beware The Bear, Jerry McGrath, 33-1, 11-0
    8 Peregrine Run, Kevin Sexton, 66-1, 10-13
    9 Jett, Sam Waley-Cohen, 50-1, 10-13
    10 Alpha Des Obeaux, Richard Johnson, 25-1, 10-13
    11 Total Recall, Paul Townend, 40-1, 10-13
    12 The Storyteller, Keith Donoghue, 40-1, 10-12
    13 Magic Of Light, Robbie Power, 18-1, 10-12
    14 Talkischeap, Tom Cannon, 25-1, 10-11
    15 Yala Enki, Bryony Frost, 28-1, 10-11
    16 Ballyoptic, Sam Twiston-Davies, 25-1, 10-11
    17 Burrows Saint, Rachael Blackmore, 12-1, 10-10
    18 Definitly Red, Brian Hughes, 14-1, 10-10
    19 Sub Lieutenant, JJ Slevin, 33-1, 10-9
    20 Ok Corral, Derek O’Connor, 25-1, 10-9
    21 Tout Est Permis, Sean Flanagan, 80-1, 10-9
    22 Vintage Clouds, Danny Cook, 33-1, 10-8
    23 Crievehill, Tom Bellamy, 66-1, 10-8
    24 Lake View Lad, Henry Brooke, 50-1, 10-8
    25 Jury Duty, Mark Enright, 40-1, 10-8
    26 Pleasant Company, David Mullins, 28-1, 10-7
    27 Acapella Bourgeois, Danny Mullins, 33-1, 10-6
    28 Shattered Love, Lisa O'Neill, 66-1, 10-6
    29 Any Second Now, Mark Walsh, 10-1, 10-6
    30 Potters Corner, Jack Tudor, 18-1, 10-6
    31 Dounikos, Luke Dempsey, 50-1, 10-5
    32 Kildisart, Nico de Boinville, 50-1, 10-5
    33 Death Duty, Gavin Brouder, 50-1, 10-5
    34 Ramses De Teillee, Tom Scudamore, 66-1, 10-5
    35 Valtor, James Bowen, 66-1, 10-4
    36 Saint Xavier, David Maxwell, 66-1, 10-4
    37 Warriors Tale, Harry Cobden, 80-1, 10-4
    38 Double Shuffle, Jonathan Burke, 100-1, 10-4
    39 Kimberlite Candy, Richie McLernon, 16-1, 10-4
    40 Walk In The Mill, James Best, 16-1, 10-4

  • killer kish
    killer kish Posts: 2,019
    Don't get to excited as I'm sure anna kissed has plans in place to get this abandoned 
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,759
    Ok a bizarre list of runners but should provide some light entertainment at least... what will the going be I wonder...
  • lenbackagain
    lenbackagain Posts: 8
    The bookies a
    Callumcafc said:
    Ok a bizarre list of runners but should provide some light entertainment at least... what will the going be I wonder...

    Probably good to soft
  • lenbackagain
    lenbackagain Posts: 8
    The bookies are taking bets on this with a maximum stake of £10 or £10EW (5 places). Tiger Roll is 5/1 favourite but he didn't win last years virtual race so with more weight and a year older i don't see how he can win this year. Kimberlite Candy is 16/1 and as Peanuts has said he looks worth an each way bet. He will be carrying my tenner.
  • Starinnaddick
    Starinnaddick Posts: 4,342
    I initially dismissed this virtual race as codswallop but having now discovered that Bookies are giving all their profits on the race to the NHS I will be having a small bet on Any Second Now. 
     
  • kinveachyaddick
    kinveachyaddick Posts: 3,874
    Which bookies have priced this up? Can't see it on betfair sportsbook yet
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  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,761
    edited April 2020
    kinveachyaddick said:
    Which bookies have priced this up? Can't see it on betfair sportsbook yet
    Virtually everyone apart from Betfair:

    https://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner
  • stackitsteve
    stackitsteve Posts: 12,102
    Race of Champions too.

    The Virtual Grand National will be broadcast live on ITV1 at 5pm on Saturday. Coverage will be led by Nick Luck with Alice Plunkett and Richard Pitman on as pundits. Stewart Machin will be commentating.

    The broadcast will also feature a race of champions, a simulation of previous Aintree greats being tested in an epic clash between 40 famous race winners.

  • lenbackagain
    lenbackagain Posts: 8
    stackitsteve said:
    Race of Champions too.

    The Virtual Grand National will be broadcast live on ITV1 at 5pm on Saturday. Coverage will be led by Nick Luck with Alice Plunkett and Richard Pitman on as pundits. Stewart Machin will be commentating.

    The broadcast will also feature a race of champions, a simulation of previous Aintree greats being tested in an epic clash between 40 famous race winners.

    I don't see how they could possibly not have Red Rum as the winner of that.
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,842
    lenbackagain said:
    stackitsteve said:
    Race of Champions too.

    The Virtual Grand National will be broadcast live on ITV1 at 5pm on Saturday. Coverage will be led by Nick Luck with Alice Plunkett and Richard Pitman on as pundits. Stewart Machin will be commentating.

    The broadcast will also feature a race of champions, a simulation of previous Aintree greats being tested in an epic clash between 40 famous race winners.

    I don't see how they could possibly not have Red Rum as the winner of that.

    He was the greatest, but was he the best?

    It almost sounds like blasphemy, but I would say no - and I would have a few ahead of him including Many Clouds.
  • lenbackagain
    lenbackagain Posts: 8
    bobmunro said:
    lenbackagain said:
    stackitsteve said:
    Race of Champions too.

    The Virtual Grand National will be broadcast live on ITV1 at 5pm on Saturday. Coverage will be led by Nick Luck with Alice Plunkett and Richard Pitman on as pundits. Stewart Machin will be commentating.

    The broadcast will also feature a race of champions, a simulation of previous Aintree greats being tested in an epic clash between 40 famous race winners.

    I don't see how they could possibly not have Red Rum as the winner of that.

    He was the greatest, but was he the best?

    It almost sounds like blasphemy, but I would say no - and I would have a few ahead of him including Many Clouds.
    The race was a lot harder in the 70's. Many Clouds might have won back then but we will never know. Red Rum proved himself. These virtual races will be almost as entertaining as the real thing.
  • ValleyGary
    ValleyGary Posts: 37,973
    Kimberlite Candy and The Story Teller are getting my money. 
  • Starinnaddick
    Starinnaddick Posts: 4,342
    edited April 2020
    bobmunro said:
    lenbackagain said:
    stackitsteve said:
    Race of Champions too.

    The Virtual Grand National will be broadcast live on ITV1 at 5pm on Saturday. Coverage will be led by Nick Luck with Alice Plunkett and Richard Pitman on as pundits. Stewart Machin will be commentating.

    The broadcast will also feature a race of champions, a simulation of previous Aintree greats being tested in an epic clash between 40 famous race winners.

    I don't see how they could possibly not have Red Rum as the winner of that.

    He was the greatest, but was he the best?

    It almost sounds like blasphemy, but I would say no - and I would have a few ahead of him including Many Clouds.
    L'Escargot?
    Apart from Golden Miller the only other horse to win Gold Cups and a Grand National. Also beat Red Rum  in the National. 

  • Alwaysneil
    Alwaysneil Posts: 13,805
    Um, when do I get my voided bet money back to spend off the national @bobmunro? I don’t need it but I was planning on donating a chunk to the NHS, would be good to understand when that can happen.....
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,842
    edited April 2020
    Alwaysneil said:
    Um, when do I get my voided bet money back to spend off the national @bobmunro? I don’t need it but I was planning on donating a chunk to the NHS, would be good to understand when that can happen.....

    I have no idea, sorry - been a tad busy with other matters!!
  • LenGlover
    LenGlover Posts: 31,651
    Crisp was unlucky.
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  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,842
    LenGlover said:
    Crisp was unlucky.

    Indeed, unlucky to have Richard Pitman on board!!
  • lenbackagain
    lenbackagain Posts: 8
    Betfair have finally managed to get their prices onsite. But only on the sportsbook and only a maximum stake of £10 or £10ew. Weird how every bookie is offering the same odds.
    https://www.betfair.com/sport/horse-racing/meeting?eventId=29763784&raceTime=1586016900000&dayToSearch=20200404&marketId=924.228914722
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,842
    lenbackagain said:
    Betfair have finally managed to get their prices onsite. But only on the sportsbook and only a maximum stake of £10 or £10ew. Weird how every bookie is offering the same odds.
    https://www.betfair.com/sport/horse-racing/meeting?eventId=29763784&raceTime=1586016900000&dayToSearch=20200404&marketId=924.228914722
    It's the same odds as all bookmakers are taking the same stance - all profits to the NHS.
    So it's not competitive from a commercial perspective.

    I sincerely hope an unbacked 100/1 outsider wins it!

  • Starinnaddick
    Starinnaddick Posts: 4,342
    bobmunro said:
    LenGlover said:
    Crisp was unlucky.

    Indeed, unlucky to have Richard Pitman on board!!
    Crisp and L'Escargot were giving Red Rum a stone and a half though. 

  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,842
    Starinnaddick said:
    bobmunro said:
    LenGlover said:
    Crisp was unlucky.

    Indeed, unlucky to have Richard Pitman on board!!
    Crisp and L'Escargot were giving Red Rum a stone and a half though. 


    I would agree that they were both better horses than Red Rum.
  • lenbackagain
    lenbackagain Posts: 8
    bobmunro said:
    lenbackagain said:
    Betfair have finally managed to get their prices onsite. But only on the sportsbook and only a maximum stake of £10 or £10ew. Weird how every bookie is offering the same odds.
    https://www.betfair.com/sport/horse-racing/meeting?eventId=29763784&raceTime=1586016900000&dayToSearch=20200404&marketId=924.228914722
    It's the same odds as all bookmakers are taking the same stance - all profits to the NHS.
    So it's not competitive from a commercial perspective.

    I sincerely hope an unbacked 100/1 outsider wins it!

    I am interested to see if the computer agrees with Peanuts model and the OLBG computer. Kimberlite Candy must have a great chance but i don't know why Peanuts rates Elegant Escape, his last two races were about as bad as it gets.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,759
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    Obviously I'm a firm believer that an algorithm can work well in the Grand National - albeit no model is a crystal ball.

    I won't be betting on how ITV's calls it (and certainly won't be tweaking my model as a result) but, for what it's worth and with the ground presumably drying up to be Good to Soft, these would have been my model's ratings and my 6 e/w bets:

    Winning Calibre (equal rating):
    • Elegant Escape
    • Magic Of Light
    • Kimberlite Candy
    Strong Place Potential (equal rating):
    • Anibale Fly
    • Yala Enki
    • Ramses De Teillee
    Next Best (equal rating):
    • Ballyoptic 
    • Any Second Now
    Enjoy the "race" folks.
    Thanks for these Peanuts. 

    Wouldn’t be putting money down on a virtual race normally (obviously) but happy to have a little tickle this year if profits are going towards the COVID-19 effort.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,759
    edited April 2020
    PeanutsMolloy said:

    But the most interesting candidate from my model's perspective runs in the X-Country on Wednesday and, though it may sound blasphemous, it isn't Tiger Roll. Because unless Tiger repeats what he did in last year's X-C, with blinkers donned for the first time over fences, in upping his career-high chase RPR (then by 8lbs to 171) by 6lbs to 180 - not impossible but improbable, given his late-starting preparations – at this year’s GN weights he won't figure among my model's Winning Calibre selections.

    It's PEREGRINE RUN, who has to finish in the first 4 even to qualify for a GN run. He's as short as 10/1 with Bob's mob for the X-C and should he make the frame and be competitive at the business end over 30f at level weights, he'll turbo-charge his GN stat-profile to "Winning Calibre". If so, you can kiss goodbye to the 66s now available for the GN, of which I've availed myself (Non-Runner No Bet). 

    Why is he flashing away on the radar screen? He's never run at 3m+ over fences under Rules but he's 2 from 2 at 23f (and was a close 4th under 11.09 in last summer's 22.5f Galway Plate - coping with the hurly-burly and notching a career-high chase RPR 163) and 3 from 3 (wins or near-misses) at 22.5~24.5f  over hurdles. Had a decent "sighter" of the GN fences in last April's 21f Topham (slightly unfortunate fall 3 out) on ground too soft for him. Not exactly thrown-in off OR159 for Aintree but he's unexposed at an extended trip and is due to carry a workable 10.13. Wednesday is make or break for him as a GN runner and backable proposition.

  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,759
    edited April 2020
    The above from Peanuts on page 4 re: Peregrine Run makes me think he may be worth adding at 66-1 given that he’s “cheated” his way into the virtual race.
  • lenbackagain
    lenbackagain Posts: 8
    My cat says Acapella Bourgeois is a great each way bet

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