No, this is the full list of horses that are entered. Of course, loads are entered, because of its prestige as a race. No doubt there will be withdrawals, but the number of horses allowed to race on the day is cut off at 40 (safety reasons etc), so a few will miss out.
@PeanutsMolloy - where do you envisage the cut-off being? 145/144 is about what it was in recent years, yes?
Bearing in mind some on the lowest rating made it, some (maybe most, as last year with 142) didn't, the lowest OR to get a run: 2015: 139 (x3 of them) 2016: 145 (x2 of them) 2017: 143 (x2 of them) 2018: 142 (x1 of them) 2019: 142 (x1 - Joe Farrell last in as the best 142 - the 142s started at 76th in the list at the unveiling of the weights)
Best guess - should be OK with 145, some 144s might make it.
You'd have to think, given the planet-sized ego of the owner, that it's unlikely that Tiger will run. Who knows but they've painted themselves into a corner, somewhat. All 3 of Delta Work, Bristol De Mai and Native River have the GC as the prime target and may not take on the GN 22 days later. So an 8lb rise is distinctly possible. I think Anibale Fly's connections have most to be aggrieved about, personally. His Irish mark has dropped (not unreasonably given his form) to 158 but he's got 162. Only 2lbs lower than last year and Tiger's still 4lbs better off with him, based on the distances, but he could easily end up (joint) top-weight again if Tiger defects. If Tiger does run, however, the pick of the Irish (and of those returning from last year) for me is Magic Of Light - would run with only 1lb more absolute weight and is better off in the handicap with all nearest rivals, based on the distances. I tend to share trainer and jockey's view that she's come on again this season, though whether her fence-jumping's improved (or whether that will matter!) is another question. Interestingly she'll go head to head with Tiger on his return to the track shortly in the Boyne Hurdle. However, her stat-profile is very sensitive to a weight rise. Certainly one as large as 8lbs would cook her goose (or whatever the PC/vegan equivalent is these days) from my model's perspective.
OK, first off the rank of the "Must-Haves" (each-way, naturally), according to model, regardless of possible weight-rise and going:
ELEGANT ESCAPE(8yo) – currently 28/1
#1 selection on going better than Soft and carrying < 11.07
·
EE’s mark for the GN, as expected, is OR162 and,
if Tiger Roll runs on 4 April, he’ll carry 11.02 (4 of the last 10 GN winners
have carried more). If not, EE could well be top-weight with 11.10 and, though
dropping from #1 selection of the model, he’d still have a winning calibre stat-rating, assuming a safe prep.
·
His profile’s comparable to that of Many Clouds
(won 2015 GN, also as an 8yo, with 11.09). Both notched career-high RPRs (166 for
MC, 167 for EE) over 26f earlier in the campaign leading to Aintree.
·
EE is proven over further, winning 29f 2018
Welsh GN on Soft with 11.08 (OR151) - since 1991, only Native River has carried
more to win the Chepstow showpiece – and in this season’s Welsh GN, with
topweight of 11.12 (OR160), EE was a creditable, plugging on 6th
(11.5L) over the new, extended trip of 30.5f on Heavy.
·
Based on that run, at the GN weights, he’s effectively
on level terms with Potters Corner but concedes a 9lb pull to Yala Enki.
However, his record on quicker ground and pedigree just give EE the edge for the
GN.
·
Versatile as to going but likely best suited by genuine
GS - his highest RPR (twice 167 - with and without newly-donned blinkers) coming
over 26f on GS. Most recent of those was his fast-finishing close 3rd
in November’s Hennessy, again as 11.12 topweight (OR160). Though the form of
that race has been questioned, it was run in a decent time (3.6s fast of
standard) and the strength of EE’s finish bodes well for a mile further on
comparable ground.
·
Yet to face the GN fences but EE has 100%
completion in 16 chases, with wins or near-misses over stiff jumping tracks of
differing characteristics (Cheltenham, Newbury, Chepstow, Wetherby and
Sandown). No doubt he’ll be schooled over GN lookalikees. Won a 20-runner chase (2018 Welsh GN) to tick the “large-field” box.
·
Made the frame 81% (13) of those 16 chases – his
2 widest-margin misses coming in Grade 1 company at the end of a busy campaign
last season. After 1 prep, he’ll head to Aintree on the back of his lightest
campaign to date (4 runs - in the sweet spot for GN winners’ stats).
·
That prep is likely to be as topweight in GN
Trial at Haydock next Saturday – 49 days prior (fine for GN stats) and a far
better choice than the GC, given that EE goes well fresh (won or near-missed on
all 4 returns from 50+ day breaks). Safe spin round will suffice.
·
Pedigree
Ticks
the dam-side pedigree box with the presence of quality-progeny of Wild Risk (Worden-Devon-Le
Bavard) – same line as on damside of Numbersixvalverde (won 2006), McKelvey
(agonisingly close 2nd 2007) and, yes you’ve guessed it, Many Clouds
(2015).
In Novmber O'Leary said that the chances of Tiger Roll running were between "slim and none". I wonder what price he would have offered on that basis - surely 100/1 plus? Now he says it's "50/50" - and even money would now be too big a price on TR partaking in my opinion. O'Leary just won't be able to resist the possibility of being the owner of a three times National winner.
What I would really like, though, would be if the media just ignored him and should TR achieve that feat, that the horse is celebrated with no reference whatsoever to connections. Now that would really hurt!
·
In contrast to EE, who was winning a Welsh GN as
a 6yo, KC has taken (and been given, by astute connections) time to mature into
a steeplechaser of the old-fashioned variety. He’s come of age this season, his
third over fences.
·
Impressive on his seasonal bow over the GN
fences in December’s 26f Becher Chase on Soft (18 runners), when a staying-on 2nd
(2.5L) off OR137 to Walk In The Mill, and followed up with an emphatic win off
OR140 in the 29f Warwick Classic under 11.04, also on Soft, in January. Set a
new career-high RPR of 157 that day and the handicapper upped him to OR150 –
his mark for the GN.
·
He’s following exactly in One For Arthur’s
hoof-steps prior to his 2017 GN win (and off similar handicap marks and also an 8 yo) and, like
him, will head straight to Aintree after an 84 day break – One For Arthur’s the
only GN winner for 30+ years without a post-weights prep but he’s set the
precedent and both Durham Edition (1990, 102 days) and Mely Moss (2000, 345
days) came within 1.25L of winning with a longer break. Importantly KC goes well fresh - won or near-missed on return from 3
of last 4 breaks of 50+ days.
·
Soft ground would improve his chances but,
though he had 2 “failures” at the end of last season at 29f+ on quicker, after
a sticky start in the Eider, he hung in there to come home 14.5L 5th on
quickish GS. He’s a better, stronger chaser this term but the more
cut the better for him, for sure.
·
2 prior runs in the season is a tad light as a GN stat
- Miinnehoma (1994) the last winner with less than 3 but a number have come
home 2nd since then with as light a campaign (Suny Bay, Mely Moss [none]), Clan Royal, Black
Apalachi, Cappa Bleu and Pleasant Company).
·
He’ll carry 10.04 in the GN if Tiger runs, up to
a probable 10.12 if not – either way, a very winnable-with burden, despite a career high OR150. One For Arthur won with 10.11 (OR148).
·
15 chases – 10 at 3m+, in which he has a 50% win
or near-miss record.
·
Pedigree - not a guarantee of success, obviously, but
KC’s got stayer and Grand National stamped all over his:
From the family of high-class stayer Beau and half-brother
to Hawkes Point (close 2nd in Welsh GN)
Sire - Flemensfirth (sire of 3 GN runners-up – King John’s
Castle, The Last Samuri and Magic Of Light)
Dam-sire - Be My Native (dam-sire of GN runner-up Black Apalachi [and Native River come to that]).
Elsewhere on the dam-side, KC has both the Wild
Risk X Factor (Le Bavard) and, as 3rd Dam-sire, Menelek (sire of GN
winners – Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy) - Menelek mares long-considered a source
of quality for staying chasers.
In case you hand't noticed, I'm sweet on this fella
Been trying to find a list of top prize winning steeplechaser of all time as was trying to ascertain if Tiger Roll is in top ten? I know he is someway behind Kauto due to discussions with a friend, but even with mighty google I only find a list of flat racehorses. any help appreciated.
Been trying to find a list of top prize winning steeplechaser of all time as was trying to ascertain if Tiger Roll is in top ten? I know he is someway behind Kauto due to discussions with a friend, but even with mighty google I only find a list of flat racehorses. any help appreciated.
Not sure where you would find it, but highest ratings of all time for steeplechasers are:
Been trying to find a list of top prize winning steeplechaser of all time as was trying to ascertain if Tiger Roll is in top ten? I know he is someway behind Kauto due to discussions with a friend, but even with mighty google I only find a list of flat racehorses. any help appreciated.
Personally, wouldn't know where you'd go to find this. You could look up on the Racing Post website career earnings of individual horses that you consider (or research as) the best chasers of all time. E.g you could look up all Gold Cup winners - this is Kauto Star's CV courtesy of the RP https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/579373/kauto-star/form and Denman's https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/633710/denman/form and Best Mate's https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/520791/best-mate/form and Tiger Roll's https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/805259/tiger-roll/form Hope you can access these links - it's just via the usual search function on the RP website. Sorry if that's bleedin' obvious and no help at all. The big problem however is that RP's data only goes back to the 1980s, so you won't find there the data for the acknowledged all-time greats like Arkle or Golden Miller. In any case, prize money is astronomic these days compared to when even Desert Orchid was strutting his stuff, so (again to state the obvious - many apologies) it's sort of apples and oranges to look for "all time" comparison by earnings. Sorry I can't suggest anything better.
Cheers Guys - seems only Kauto and Long run have won more price money than Tiger which is as you say due to prize inflation. sorry for an amble off topic. BTW - its Burrows Saint for me ante post
At 33/1, I suspect Vintage Clouds is worth a shy - two and a half times the price he was last year. Easily beat Definitly Red at Haydock over 25.5f, though there are quite big concerns for me over the Aintree factor, and I wonder how the going might affect him. Has won on Heavy most recently, though last year I remember Peanuts saying he was better on better going. Extra weight (10st8 or 11st2 if TR is out) might be a bad thing?
Has had a slightly heavier campaign than last year, but showing he can win LTO and placed at Haydock in December, albeit 20L behind. Probably a weaker profile than last year, but I suspect there are still merits. Wonder if the guru can enlighten me!
Been trying to find a list of top prize winning steeplechaser of all time as was trying to ascertain if Tiger Roll is in top ten? I know he is someway behind Kauto due to discussions with a friend, but even with mighty google I only find a list of flat racehorses. any help appreciated.
Not sure where you would find it, but highest ratings of all time for steeplechasers are:
Been trying to find a list of top prize winning steeplechaser of all time as was trying to ascertain if Tiger Roll is in top ten? I know he is someway behind Kauto due to discussions with a friend, but even with mighty google I only find a list of flat racehorses. any help appreciated.
Not sure where you would find it, but highest ratings of all time for steeplechasers are:
Been trying to find a list of top prize winning steeplechaser of all time as was trying to ascertain if Tiger Roll is in top ten? I know he is someway behind Kauto due to discussions with a friend, but even with mighty google I only find a list of flat racehorses. any help appreciated.
Not sure where you would find it, but highest ratings of all time for steeplechasers are:
OK, a heads up for the Grand National Trial at
Haydock on Saturday (weather permitting - storm Dennis could be a threat to the
fixture).
Assuming it goes ahead, 11 declared this morning,
including 7 with GN entries and likely to make the cut. Among them are Elegant
Escape (already explained) and another that I’ve backed ante-post for the GN:
YALA ENKI (current best price for GN 5 places 28/1 - [Betfair
Sportsbook, ante-post 1/5 odds)
A safe spin round will secure a GN stat-rating of "Strong Place
Potential" on GS / "Winning Calibre" on Soft – that’s regardless of any likely weight-rise. He’s a
course & distance winner at Haydock and 7/1 second fav currently for Saturday. Testing going should suit and a win or near-miss would elevate his GN-rating to match Kimberlite Candy’s. Like him, best-suited
by meaningful cut at Aintree.
·
Staying-on close 3rd (3L) in the (now 30.5f) Welsh GN on
heavy in December under 11.07 (OR155). At the weights, he’ll have a 9lbs advantage
vs both Potters Corner and Elegant Escape at Aintree, based on that result. Also staying-on 3rd (5L) in the (29f) 2018 Welsh GN under
11.11 on Sft – both Chepstow runs producing career-high RPRs 164.
·
OR157 for Aintree, he’ll carry a very appealing 10.11 if Tiger runs or 11.05
if the top 4 defect – that’s no worry for him given his profile and might even
help adding weight to rivals, given his stamina.
·
Facing the GN fences for the first time but 93% completion in 27 chases
(8 in France).
·
Stamina is obviously this fella’s forte – in UK races 80% frame-making in
5 chases at 29f+ (only miss on Gd ground), compared to 29% at 23-27f)
·
A quick surface would raise a concern (never won on anything better than
genuine GS) but, over 34f, some reassurance comes from his run in the Hennessy
in November, officially on GS but run in a time 3.6s fast of standard. On his
debut for the season, new trainer and post-wind op, he jumped and travelled well, at a decent clip and with the pace that day, under 11.07 before (like other
true-stayers in the field) being outpaced and swallowed up about a mile from home by younger steeds.
Even on a similar surface, a mile further should be his advantage but, for
sure, the softer the ground the better his chance.
·
Pedigree underscores his race record and screams stamina (sired by 168-rated
jumper Nickname, his dam-sire is Cadoudal who sired Big Bucks and Long Run) though it’s without
GN-specific credentials.
·
Tends to race with the pace, avoiding traffic-problems hopefully, and will be piloted
by now-regular partner Bryony Frost who steered fellow-front runner Milansbar to 5th
in the 2018 GN.
·
Nicholls has likened YE to 2012 GN winner Neptune Collonges and he obviously shares French origins and abundant stamina,
though NC was competitive at Grade 1. NC's final prep was in the GNT at Haydock
and so YE is due to follow suit - in both cases their 4th run of the
season, 49 days ahead of the big one – perfect from a GN stats’ perspective.
As regards the others declared for Saturday:
One For Arthur - needs to win or near-miss to have a chance on the stats of figuring
at the business end on 4 April. Even so, he’d be short of winning calibre these
days, according to my model, despite shouldering an inviting 10.02 if Tiger runs
(up to 10.10 if not).
Ballyoptic – similarly needs to win or near-miss to have the stats to be in contention at Aintree but he’s off too high a mark currently, according to my model, and 2
Falls and an 80L defeat in 3 runs over the GN fences don’t bode well (doesn’t seem
to have the agility of foot to stay upright over the these obstacles).
Even with a win, for differing reasons, Vintage Clouds (got the ability but horses seem
to remember unhappy experiences over the GN fences and I hope connections think again about him running), Steely Addition and Lord Du Mesnil (current fav for Saturday) make
no appeal for me for the big one.
Comments
Looks reasonable to me.
And Robbie Supple starting the race, pernickety as he always is, followed by god knows what in the commentary!
2015: 139 (x3 of them)
2016: 145 (x2 of them)
2017: 143 (x2 of them)
2018: 142 (x1 of them)
2019: 142 (x1 - Joe Farrell last in as the best 142 - the 142s started at 76th in the list at the unveiling of the weights)
Best guess - should be OK with 145, some 144s might make it.
All 3 of Delta Work, Bristol De Mai and Native River have the GC as the prime target and may not take on the GN 22 days later.
So an 8lb rise is distinctly possible.
I think Anibale Fly's connections have most to be aggrieved about, personally. His Irish mark has dropped (not unreasonably given his form) to 158 but he's got 162. Only 2lbs lower than last year and Tiger's still 4lbs better off with him, based on the distances, but he could easily end up (joint) top-weight again if Tiger defects.
If Tiger does run, however, the pick of the Irish (and of those returning from last year) for me is Magic Of Light - would run with only 1lb more absolute weight and is better off in the handicap with all nearest rivals, based on the distances. I tend to share trainer and jockey's view that she's come on again this season, though whether her fence-jumping's improved (or whether that will matter!) is another question.
Interestingly she'll go head to head with Tiger on his return to the track shortly in the Boyne Hurdle.
However, her stat-profile is very sensitive to a weight rise. Certainly one as large as 8lbs would cook her goose (or whatever the PC/vegan equivalent is these days) from my model's perspective.
ELEGANT ESCAPE (8yo) – currently 28/1
#1 selection on going better than Soft and carrying < 11.07
· EE’s mark for the GN, as expected, is OR162 and, if Tiger Roll runs on 4 April, he’ll carry 11.02 (4 of the last 10 GN winners have carried more). If not, EE could well be top-weight with 11.10 and, though dropping from #1 selection of the model, he’d still have a winning calibre stat-rating, assuming a safe prep.
· His profile’s comparable to that of Many Clouds (won 2015 GN, also as an 8yo, with 11.09). Both notched career-high RPRs (166 for MC, 167 for EE) over 26f earlier in the campaign leading to Aintree.
· EE is proven over further, winning 29f 2018 Welsh GN on Soft with 11.08 (OR151) - since 1991, only Native River has carried more to win the Chepstow showpiece – and in this season’s Welsh GN, with topweight of 11.12 (OR160), EE was a creditable, plugging on 6th (11.5L) over the new, extended trip of 30.5f on Heavy.
· Based on that run, at the GN weights, he’s effectively on level terms with Potters Corner but concedes a 9lb pull to Yala Enki. However, his record on quicker ground and pedigree just give EE the edge for the GN.
· Versatile as to going but likely best suited by genuine GS - his highest RPR (twice 167 - with and without newly-donned blinkers) coming over 26f on GS. Most recent of those was his fast-finishing close 3rd in November’s Hennessy, again as 11.12 topweight (OR160). Though the form of that race has been questioned, it was run in a decent time (3.6s fast of standard) and the strength of EE’s finish bodes well for a mile further on comparable ground.
· Yet to face the GN fences but EE has 100% completion in 16 chases, with wins or near-misses over stiff jumping tracks of differing characteristics (Cheltenham, Newbury, Chepstow, Wetherby and Sandown). No doubt he’ll be schooled over GN lookalikees. Won a 20-runner chase (2018 Welsh GN) to tick the “large-field” box.
· Made the frame 81% (13) of those 16 chases – his 2 widest-margin misses coming in Grade 1 company at the end of a busy campaign last season. After 1 prep, he’ll head to Aintree on the back of his lightest campaign to date (4 runs - in the sweet spot for GN winners’ stats).
· That prep is likely to be as topweight in GN Trial at Haydock next Saturday – 49 days prior (fine for GN stats) and a far better choice than the GC, given that EE goes well fresh (won or near-missed on all 4 returns from 50+ day breaks). Safe spin round will suffice.
· Pedigree
Ticks the dam-side pedigree box with the presence of quality-progeny of Wild Risk (Worden-Devon-Le Bavard) – same line as on damside of Numbersixvalverde (won 2006), McKelvey (agonisingly close 2nd 2007) and, yes you’ve guessed it, Many Clouds (2015).
What I would really like, though, would be if the media just ignored him and should TR achieve that feat, that the horse is celebrated with no reference whatsoever to connections. Now that would really hurt!
And second of the Must-Haves (IMHO):
KIMBERLITE CANDY (8 yo) – currently 20/1
#1 selection on Soft
· In contrast to EE, who was winning a Welsh GN as a 6yo, KC has taken (and been given, by astute connections) time to mature into a steeplechaser of the old-fashioned variety. He’s come of age this season, his third over fences.
· Impressive on his seasonal bow over the GN fences in December’s 26f Becher Chase on Soft (18 runners), when a staying-on 2nd (2.5L) off OR137 to Walk In The Mill, and followed up with an emphatic win off OR140 in the 29f Warwick Classic under 11.04, also on Soft, in January. Set a new career-high RPR of 157 that day and the handicapper upped him to OR150 – his mark for the GN.
· He’s following exactly in One For Arthur’s hoof-steps prior to his 2017 GN win (and off similar handicap marks and also an 8 yo) and, like him, will head straight to Aintree after an 84 day break – One For Arthur’s the only GN winner for 30+ years without a post-weights prep but he’s set the precedent and both Durham Edition (1990, 102 days) and Mely Moss (2000, 345 days) came within 1.25L of winning with a longer break. Importantly KC goes well fresh - won or near-missed on return from 3 of last 4 breaks of 50+ days.
· Soft ground would improve his chances but, though he had 2 “failures” at the end of last season at 29f+ on quicker, after a sticky start in the Eider, he hung in there to come home 14.5L 5th on quickish GS. He’s a better, stronger chaser this term but the more cut the better for him, for sure.
· 2 prior runs in the season is a tad light as a GN stat - Miinnehoma (1994) the last winner with less than 3 but a number have come home 2nd since then with as light a campaign (Suny Bay, Mely Moss [none]), Clan Royal, Black Apalachi, Cappa Bleu and Pleasant Company).
· He’ll carry 10.04 in the GN if Tiger runs, up to a probable 10.12 if not – either way, a very winnable-with burden, despite a career high OR150. One For Arthur won with 10.11 (OR148).
· 15 chases – 10 at 3m+, in which he has a 50% win or near-miss record.
· Pedigree - not a guarantee of success, obviously, but KC’s got stayer and Grand National stamped all over his:
From the family of high-class stayer Beau and half-brother to Hawkes Point (close 2nd in Welsh GN)
Sire - Flemensfirth (sire of 3 GN runners-up – King John’s Castle, The Last Samuri and Magic Of Light)
Dam-sire - Be My Native (dam-sire of GN runner-up Black Apalachi [and Native River come to that]).
Elsewhere on the dam-side, KC has both the Wild Risk X Factor (Le Bavard) and, as 3rd Dam-sire, Menelek (sire of GN winners – Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy) - Menelek mares long-considered a source of quality for staying chasers.In case you hand't noticed, I'm sweet on this fella
Been trying to find a list of top prize winning steeplechaser of all time as was trying to ascertain if Tiger Roll is in top ten?
I know he is someway behind Kauto due to discussions with a friend, but even with mighty google I only find a list of flat racehorses. any help appreciated.
You could look up on the Racing Post website career earnings of individual horses that you consider (or research as) the best chasers of all time. E.g you could look up all Gold Cup winners - this is Kauto Star's CV courtesy of the RP
https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/579373/kauto-star/form
and Denman's
https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/633710/denman/form
and Best Mate's
https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/520791/best-mate/form
and Tiger Roll's
https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/805259/tiger-roll/form
Hope you can access these links - it's just via the usual search function on the RP website. Sorry if that's bleedin' obvious and no help at all.
The big problem however is that RP's data only goes back to the 1980s, so you won't find there the data for the acknowledged all-time greats like Arkle or Golden Miller.
In any case, prize money is astronomic these days compared to when even Desert Orchid was strutting his stuff, so (again to state the obvious - many apologies) it's sort of apples and oranges to look for "all time" comparison by earnings.
Sorry I can't suggest anything better.
Has had a slightly heavier campaign than last year, but showing he can win LTO and placed at Haydock in December, albeit 20L behind. Probably a weaker profile than last year, but I suspect there are still merits. Wonder if the guru can enlighten me!
Many believe he was better than Arkle - but illness cut short his racing career.
OK, a heads up for the Grand National Trial at Haydock on Saturday (weather permitting - storm Dennis could be a threat to the fixture).
Assuming it goes ahead, 11 declared this morning, including 7 with GN entries and likely to make the cut. Among them are Elegant Escape (already explained) and another that I’ve backed ante-post for the GN:
YALA ENKI (current best price for GN 5 places 28/1 - [Betfair Sportsbook, ante-post 1/5 odds)
A safe spin round will secure a GN stat-rating of "Strong Place Potential" on GS / "Winning Calibre" on Soft – that’s regardless of any likely weight-rise. He’s a course & distance winner at Haydock and 7/1 second fav currently for Saturday. Testing going should suit and a win or near-miss would elevate his GN-rating to match Kimberlite Candy’s. Like him, best-suited by meaningful cut at Aintree.
· Staying-on close 3rd (3L) in the (now 30.5f) Welsh GN on heavy in December under 11.07 (OR155). At the weights, he’ll have a 9lbs advantage vs both Potters Corner and Elegant Escape at Aintree, based on that result. Also staying-on 3rd (5L) in the (29f) 2018 Welsh GN under 11.11 on Sft – both Chepstow runs producing career-high RPRs 164.
· OR157 for Aintree, he’ll carry a very appealing 10.11 if Tiger runs or 11.05 if the top 4 defect – that’s no worry for him given his profile and might even help adding weight to rivals, given his stamina.
· Facing the GN fences for the first time but 93% completion in 27 chases (8 in France).
· Stamina is obviously this fella’s forte – in UK races 80% frame-making in 5 chases at 29f+ (only miss on Gd ground), compared to 29% at 23-27f)
· A quick surface would raise a concern (never won on anything better than genuine GS) but, over 34f, some reassurance comes from his run in the Hennessy in November, officially on GS but run in a time 3.6s fast of standard. On his debut for the season, new trainer and post-wind op, he jumped and travelled well, at a decent clip and with the pace that day, under 11.07 before (like other true-stayers in the field) being outpaced and swallowed up about a mile from home by younger steeds. Even on a similar surface, a mile further should be his advantage but, for sure, the softer the ground the better his chance.
· Pedigree underscores his race record and screams stamina (sired by 168-rated jumper Nickname, his dam-sire is Cadoudal who sired Big Bucks and Long Run) though it’s without GN-specific credentials.
· Tends to race with the pace, avoiding traffic-problems hopefully, and will be piloted by now-regular partner Bryony Frost who steered fellow-front runner Milansbar to 5th in the 2018 GN.
· Nicholls has likened YE to 2012 GN winner Neptune Collonges and he obviously shares French origins and abundant stamina, though NC was competitive at Grade 1. NC's final prep was in the GNT at Haydock and so YE is due to follow suit - in both cases their 4th run of the season, 49 days ahead of the big one – perfect from a GN stats’ perspective.
As regards the others declared for Saturday:
One For Arthur - needs to win or near-miss to have a chance on the stats of figuring at the business end on 4 April. Even so, he’d be short of winning calibre these days, according to my model, despite shouldering an inviting 10.02 if Tiger runs (up to 10.10 if not).
Ballyoptic – similarly needs to win or near-miss to have the stats to be in contention at Aintree but he’s off too high a mark currently, according to my model, and 2 Falls and an 80L defeat in 3 runs over the GN fences don’t bode well (doesn’t seem to have the agility of foot to stay upright over the these obstacles).
Even with a win, for differing reasons, Vintage Clouds (got the ability but horses seem to remember unhappy experiences over the GN fences and I hope connections think again about him running), Steely Addition and Lord Du Mesnil (current fav for Saturday) make no appeal for me for the big one.