As a desperately-needed (albeit brief) distraction from
things-Addick, thank Gawd Cheltenham has survived and goes ahead.
I'm doubtful that the GN meeting will, in all honesty, but in
the hope that (worst-case) there might be a behind-closed-doors running of the
Big One, a quick heads-up on intended GN runners likely to have their final
prep this week at the Festival. As it's GN related I'll post it here, rather
than confuse things on the brilliant Festival thread.
With Cheltenham only 3 weeks before Aintree this year (sometimes it’s 4), in the context of
"modern-day" GNs, there's as much downside as upside (stats-wise) to
a big run this week for most. However, those
that could tick enough boxes to enhance their stat-profiles meaningfully include:
Shattered Love (in
either the Ryanair or Plate on Thursday – her trainer thinks
staying’s not her game but there are contrary pointers in her pedigree) and
the
fancied Le Breuil in Thursday's 26f Kim Muir
both of whom, with strong runs, could end up rating "minor place potential" for the GN.
a safe spin round in Tuesday’s Ultima will suffice for 11yo COGRY (GN 50/1 and first mentioned a while back by @PaddyP17 as a potentially interesting GN candidate) to rate as "strong place potential", though it may be touch and go whether he makes the cut.
But the most interesting candidate from my
model's perspective runs in the X-Country on Wednesday and, though it may sound
blasphemous, it isn't Tiger Roll. Because unless Tiger repeats what he did in last year's
X-C, with blinkers donned for the first time over fences, in upping his
career-high chase RPR (then by 8lbs to 171) by 6lbs to 180 - not impossible but
improbable, given his late-starting preparations – at this year’s GN weights he
won't figure among my model's Winning Calibre selections.
It's PEREGRINE RUN, who has to finish in the first 4 even to qualify for a GN
run. He's as short as 10/1 with Bob's mob for the X-C and should he make the
frame and be competitive at the business end over 30f at level weights, he'll
turbo-charge his GN stat-profile to "Winning Calibre". If so, you can kiss
goodbye to the 66s now available for the GN, of which I've availed myself (Non-Runner No Bet).
Why is he flashing away on the radar screen?
He's never run at 3m+ over fences under Rules but he's 2 from 2 at 23f (and was a close
4th under 11.09 in last summer's 22.5f Galway Plate - coping with the hurly-burly
and notching a career-high chase RPR 163) and 3 from 3 (wins or near-misses) at
22.5~24.5f over hurdles. Had a decent "sighter" of the GN
fences in last April's 21f Topham (slightly unfortunate fall 3 out) on ground
too soft for him. Not exactly thrown-in off OR159 for Aintree but he's
unexposed at an extended trip and is due to carry a workable 10.13.
Wednesday is make or break for him as a GN runner and backable proposition.
Also in the X-C, a brace of 12 year-olds with
poor~moderate form so far this season, Pleasant Company and Outlander (both ran creditably last GN with 11.01 and 11.04
respectively and are set to shoulder 8 and 18lbs less this time), could in
theory boost their GN stat-profiles to varying degrees of place potential by
going close. But, to do so, they’d have to defy being 21 and 26lbs
"wrong" (resp.) with Tiger and contend with plenty of other strong
opposition.
I have to confess, I had a speculative (totally
nuts, more like it) tiny nibble at 200s e/w for the GN on Outlander a few weeks
ago but it does take a wild imagination and/or a copious amount of single malt
to picture any sort of return - mine's an Auchentoshan by the way.
Otherwise, for whatever reason, Potters Corner (at Auteuil yesterday) and Burrows Saint (Bobbyjo) both missed recent planned engagements and look like heading straight to Aintree, meaning it will be their first run of 2020 - that's a fairly punchy negative stat. ELEGANT ESCAPE reported to be jumping very well at home (after a poor display on the Haydock gluepot) will likely also now head straight to the GN and (thankfully) skip Friday's GC. He's back on my slip (50/1 WH e/w 4 places) with a solid Winning Calibre stat-rating (in fact #1 on Good To Soft).
I did my GN bets prior to NRNB. If the race was cancelled do people think the bets would be refunded (as it's exceptional) ?
Not certain of the answer @Covered End (others much more knowledgeable on bookies' practices) but I would have thought that bets (including antepost) would be void - thus stakes refunded, though if your selection had been scratched prior to the race being abandoned (e.g. Native River) presumably not? I'm in the same boat re most of mine - painful enough to forfeit interests at tasty odds on Kimberlite and Yala Enki without losing the stakes as well. Sorry not to be able to give you a definitive answer.
If it's off then all bets voided and money back. Postponed may be different matter though. But if it's off for the virus then unlikely to be run at all
Very swift update (will be a longer one shortly covering final selections by my model), in the hope that the GN will be run on 4 April, with or without spectators. Elegant Escape runs in the GC today. I wish Tizzard Snr and Tizzard Jnr would take the trouble to get their stories straight before blathering to journos - Jnr said "straight to Aintree" just a week ago. Looking for a safe spin round and, after getting stuck in the Haydock gluepot, it would be nice to see him confirm reports that he's been jumping well since at home. However, stats-wise the run will be neutral at best. Notably, left off today are blinkers (worn since November's Hennessy - maybe to be reapplied for Aintree?) and the tongue tie he wore first time at Haydock (first run after a wind op). Clearly short of Grade 1 calibre but Betfair Sportsbook's 50/1 for 6 places today (he was 6th last year on comparable ground) has attracted my shilling e/w. 66/1 for 5 places with SkyBet or 100/1 for 4 if you're so inclined. A staying-on minor place (20-25L back) would do very nicely from my perspective.
PS I've compared his profile to Many Clouds in an earlier post and, funnily enough, MC was 25L 6th in the GC prior to his 2015 GN win (an extra week prior though).
19L behind winner (sadly, for an e/w backer, there were 9 others in between!!) but a nice GN prep for Elegant Escape, assuming he's niggle-free. Confirmed his Winning Calibre stat-profile, regardless of going (assuming it's not faster than GS). As already known, he lacks the gears at Grade 1 level but he travelled and jumped nicely. Kept on pleasingly and Lostintranslation's close 3rd further reassures that the yard's in OK nick after some concerns. Not entirely sure what Bob was expecting but (strangely, to my way of thinking) he's pushed EE out to 40s (5 places 1/4 odds) - Hills still 50s (4 pl 1/4). More anon.
Of course trivial in the greater scheme of things but nonetheless a great shame. From personal experience, as regards open bets, Bet365 have set all cash out values to original stake, Betfair and WH refunded 100%. TTFN.
Well I look forward to hearing the tips for 2021 @PeanutsMolloy - another year to get that model refined further I guess!!
Cheers @GreenWithEnvy Will be interesting to see if ITV run their virtual GN - I imagine they will for entertainment value. People's algorithms naturally tend to have a number of factors in common (the one used for the Predictor below had Kimberlite Candy scoring but being touched off on Heavy by Potters Corner) but the big question, obviously, to which I guess everyone would be interested in an answer, would be how ITV's reckoned Tiger would have fared. I'm suspecting it would predict "big run, no cigar" for him. Mine made him failing to make the frame at the weights. We'll never know but hopefully he'll get the chance to make it 3 next time.
Aiden rides a few of my horses and is a great bloke to talk too and tells it straight as regards the horse. Always remembers your name even if you catch up with him away from one of your own horses. And cares so much about the horses too
Well I look forward to hearing the tips for 2021 @PeanutsMolloy - another year to get that model refined further I guess!!
Cheers @GreenWithEnvy Will be interesting to see if ITV run their virtual GN - I imagine they will for entertainment value. People's algorithms naturally tend to have a number of factors in common (the one used for the Predictor below had Kimberlite Candy scoring but being touched off on Heavy by Potters Corner) but the big question, obviously, to which I guess everyone would be interested in an answer, would be how ITV's reckoned Tiger would have fared. I'm suspecting it would predict "big run, no cigar" for him. Mine made him failing to make the frame at the weights. We'll never know but hopefully he'll get the chance to make it 3 next time.
Comments
Afternoon Ladies and Gents,
As a desperately-needed (albeit brief) distraction from things-Addick, thank Gawd Cheltenham has survived and goes ahead.
I'm doubtful that the GN meeting will, in all honesty, but in the hope that (worst-case) there might be a behind-closed-doors running of the Big One, a quick heads-up on intended GN runners likely to have their final prep this week at the Festival. As it's GN related I'll post it here, rather than confuse things on the brilliant Festival thread.
With Cheltenham only 3 weeks before Aintree this year (sometimes it’s 4), in the context of "modern-day" GNs, there's as much downside as upside (stats-wise) to a big run this week for most. However, those that could tick enough boxes to enhance their stat-profiles meaningfully include:
both of whom, with strong runs, could end up rating "minor place potential" for the GN.
But the most interesting candidate from my model's perspective runs in the X-Country on Wednesday and, though it may sound blasphemous, it isn't Tiger Roll. Because unless Tiger repeats what he did in last year's X-C, with blinkers donned for the first time over fences, in upping his career-high chase RPR (then by 8lbs to 171) by 6lbs to 180 - not impossible but improbable, given his late-starting preparations – at this year’s GN weights he won't figure among my model's Winning Calibre selections.
It's PEREGRINE RUN, who has to finish in the first 4 even to qualify for a GN run. He's as short as 10/1 with Bob's mob for the X-C and should he make the frame and be competitive at the business end over 30f at level weights, he'll turbo-charge his GN stat-profile to "Winning Calibre". If so, you can kiss goodbye to the 66s now available for the GN, of which I've availed myself (Non-Runner No Bet).
Why is he flashing away on the radar screen? He's never run at 3m+ over fences under Rules but he's 2 from 2 at 23f (and was a close 4th under 11.09 in last summer's 22.5f Galway Plate - coping with the hurly-burly and notching a career-high chase RPR 163) and 3 from 3 (wins or near-misses) at 22.5~24.5f over hurdles. Had a decent "sighter" of the GN fences in last April's 21f Topham (slightly unfortunate fall 3 out) on ground too soft for him. Not exactly thrown-in off OR159 for Aintree but he's unexposed at an extended trip and is due to carry a workable 10.13. Wednesday is make or break for him as a GN runner and backable proposition.
Also in the X-C, a brace of 12 year-olds with poor~moderate form so far this season, Pleasant Company and Outlander (both ran creditably last GN with 11.01 and 11.04 respectively and are set to shoulder 8 and 18lbs less this time), could in theory boost their GN stat-profiles to varying degrees of place potential by going close. But, to do so, they’d have to defy being 21 and 26lbs "wrong" (resp.) with Tiger and contend with plenty of other strong opposition.
I have to confess, I had a speculative (totally nuts, more like it) tiny nibble at 200s e/w for the GN on Outlander a few weeks ago but it does take a wild imagination and/or a copious amount of single malt to picture any sort of return - mine's an Auchentoshan by the way.
Otherwise, for whatever reason, Potters Corner (at Auteuil yesterday) and Burrows Saint (Bobbyjo) both missed recent planned engagements and look like heading straight to Aintree, meaning it will be their first run of 2020 - that's a fairly punchy negative stat.
ELEGANT ESCAPE reported to be jumping very well at home (after a poor display on the Haydock gluepot) will likely also now head straight to the GN and (thankfully) skip Friday's GC. He's back on my slip (50/1 WH e/w 4 places) with a solid Winning Calibre stat-rating (in fact #1 on Good To Soft).
Best of luck with your Cheltenham fancies.
If the race was cancelled do people think the bets would be refunded (as it's exceptional) ?
I'm in the same boat re most of mine - painful enough to forfeit interests at tasty odds on Kimberlite and Yala Enki without losing the stakes as well.
Sorry not to be able to give you a definitive answer.
Where's Bob when you need him?
Elegant Escape runs in the GC today. I wish Tizzard Snr and Tizzard Jnr would take the trouble to get their stories straight before blathering to journos - Jnr said "straight to Aintree" just a week ago.
Looking for a safe spin round and, after getting stuck in the Haydock gluepot, it would be nice to see him confirm reports that he's been jumping well since at home. However, stats-wise the run will be neutral at best.
Notably, left off today are blinkers (worn since November's Hennessy - maybe to be reapplied for Aintree?) and the tongue tie he wore first time at Haydock (first run after a wind op).
Clearly short of Grade 1 calibre but Betfair Sportsbook's 50/1 for 6 places today (he was 6th last year on comparable ground) has attracted my shilling e/w. 66/1 for 5 places with SkyBet or 100/1 for 4 if you're so inclined. A staying-on minor place (20-25L back) would do very nicely from my perspective.
PS I've compared his profile to Many Clouds in an earlier post and, funnily enough, MC was 25L 6th in the GC prior to his 2015 GN win (an extra week prior though).
As already known, he lacks the gears at Grade 1 level but he travelled and jumped nicely. Kept on pleasingly and Lostintranslation's close 3rd further reassures that the yard's in OK nick after some concerns.
Not entirely sure what Bob was expecting but (strangely, to my way of thinking) he's pushed EE out to 40s (5 places 1/4 odds) - Hills still 50s (4 pl 1/4).
More anon.
From personal experience, as regards open bets, Bet365 have set all cash out values to original stake, Betfair and WH refunded 100%.
TTFN.
Will be interesting to see if ITV run their virtual GN - I imagine they will for entertainment value.
People's algorithms naturally tend to have a number of factors in common (the one used for the Predictor below had Kimberlite Candy scoring but being touched off on Heavy by Potters Corner) but the big question, obviously, to which I guess everyone would be interested in an answer, would be how ITV's reckoned Tiger would have fared. I'm suspecting it would predict "big run, no cigar" for him. Mine made him failing to make the frame at the weights.
We'll never know but hopefully he'll get the chance to make it 3 next time.
https://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/rating/overall/4
Many thanks for all who contributed.
Alas now all in vain
Missed that, thanks
Bloody scary how 1 second all's fine and dandy and the next you're buried inside a fence.
Thought the video gave a great insight.
"Can I get u..... fucking hell!"
Also is it worth a bet for fun? how legit is this virtual races?
Tiger Roll came 2nd last year I think and won the year before?
I'll probably have a dabble for a bit of fun when the bookies price it up
suspect it's unlikely an outsider will win so prob best to focus on the top of the market
i watched one on b365 the other day (can watch for free) and was surprisngly entertaining. Commentrary et al.